Top is in

[RWD]

I think I just want to brag and say "I saved 100k this year" - it just has a nice ring to it.

You can save $100k and your net worth can go down. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Anyways, I only buy shares when the top is in.

[dandarc]

I think I just want to brag and say "I saved 100k this year" - it just has a nice ring to it.

You can save $100k and your net worth can go down. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Anyways, I only buy shares when the top is in.

I too like to challenge Bob for his title. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

[Malossi792]

It's crazy how much things have dropped the last few days. Do you realize we have to go back to mid-June of 2024 to reach SP500 values this low. Fear is rampant indeed!

I have recently decided to track net worth at the end of each month - previously I've been doing it about quarterly. Saw a news article somewhere how things had dropped and felt some dissappointment. I got to be careful how closely I watch things to not get too emotional about it and keep a good long term perspective. Being kind of new to this I think I'm more easily influenced emotionally by ups and downs.

Also a bit emotional because I have a chance to be up 100k from September 23 to September 24... I'm about a month away and my contributions put me on track to make it. But if the market falls I could miss that goal. I would be bummed... would be amazing to say I increased my net worth by 100k in a year. So this milestone has me more emotionally connected to whatever will happen with the market. Probably not a good strategy to be all in on this goal but I've worked hard this year and want to make it.

Wrong thread. It's all downhill from here! Top was in!!!

[aboatguy]

Wrong thread. It's all downhill from here! Top was in!!!

Hard landing



Soft landing



Which will it be?

[zolotiyeruki]

What's this "landing" you speak of?  The top is in, and there *is* no bottom!

[aboatguy]

What's this "landing" you speak of?  The top is in, and there *is* no bottom!

[LightStache]

Sahm Rule triggered - top is in!

[MMMarbleheader]

So now the market actually goes down with bad economic data? I thought we were still in the Growth is bad phase.

Hopefully this means interest rates will be going down.

[aboatguy]

Market movement in relation to hard data, pshaw.

  Raw emotions control the market, FEAR and GREED. 

Fear is back soon it may be time to place more Ducats into the market hoping to catch another dead cat bounce.  Top is in!

[dividendman]

Will this be the one Top to rule them all?

[ChpBstrd]

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Fear is back as foretold.
VIX above 25
XIV is so broken down it's not even a quote anymore.
SPY followed as promised. Down over 2% to a mere 5331.
Earnings have been a reality check - see INTC pain.

Keep investing, disbelievers. Prophecy unfolding all around us.

[Wintergreen78]

The SP500 is up over 12% since the beginning of the year! At this rate we will be at 6,000 by Christmas!

Everything is looking great!

[aboatguy]

"....Everything is looking great...", WTH????  This is the infamous The Top Is In.
Fear is back, the Top is in due to facts this time we are doomed.   



"...Everything is looking great...", WTH,   

the major indexes are down to levels unseen for at least a couple of weeks!

"....Everything is looking great..."Days of gains are lost...it may take weeks just to recover the loses!

TOP IS IN!

 

[Heckler]

In my neck of the woods, that’s called brown pow!

[ScreamingHeadGuy]

The SP500 is up over 12% since the beginning of the year! At this rate we will be at 6,000 by Christmas!

Everything is looking great!

Repent! Repent! Repent!

[dividendman]

The SP500 is up over 12% since the beginning of the year! At this rate we will be at 6,000 by Christmas!

Everything is looking great!

Repent! Repent! Repent!

We need to get these heretics out of the thread!

[Glenstache]

The SP500 is up over 12% since the beginning of the year! At this rate we will be at 6,000 by Christmas!

Everything is looking great!

Repent! Repent! Repent!

We need to get these heretics out of the thread!

The longer one denies the Top, the more switfly the Top shall deal its blow. Fear not the Top, for the Top is fear itself.

[jeroly]

[...] for the Top is fear itself.

Well, since both the Top is in and (per both Thorstach and CNN) Fear is back, this is of course almost tautological.

However, since the only thing we have to fear is fear itself, all we have to fear is the Top and all our other fears will vanish.

[solon]

I must not top.
Top is the mind-killer.
Top is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my top.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the top has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN 

[Wintergreen78]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Back in 2008 I was a young engineer who could just ignore the market and put all my 457 contributions into an SP 500 index and forget about them. I had a bunch of co-workers approaching retirement age who were really upset about the downturn and told me they were switching all their investments into money market accounts. I often wonder if they did, and if they ever switched back to investing in equities.

[G-dog]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I have been through both.  I didn’t check accounts in 2000, but did in 2008 and it hurt to see the balance drop about 50%.  But I just kept putting in the max (401k) and then retired in 2015.  My stash has essentially tripled since then. Maybe I should be more worried, but I am not.

[EliteZags]

[Malossi792]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Down a couple months of household income (DIOK). So far I welcome the summer discount. Hope I stay that way all the way down, because TOP WAS IN

[J.P. MoreGains]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I'm pretty new to all of this so yes it would be tough to see a big drop since I like all the progress I have been making. Fortunately I also feel like I'm committed to index investing and the idea that I have to ride out a downturn and keep on the same path. But still not going to be easy now that I'm paying attention to all of this and trying to reach FI.

[aboatguy]

[dividendman]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

[mistymoney]

according to yahoo charts, sp500 is still +10% for YTD, and +15% for the past 12 months.

The drops Friday and Monday were jarring especially being sequential trading days, but I can't say that my perception is that anything is really happening as yet.

As yet, the important qualifier!

But yeah! Top was dead in! We did not fully appreciate Christmas in July while we had it!

[mistymoney]

Also - CNN business fear and greed index says 20 - extreme fear is driving the US markets.

WWBD?

*ie, buffet.

But likely too early to tell. When will it be more obvious if this is a minnor blip or a starting trend that will continue?

Anyone with predictions on how low we will go before a change?

My understanding is the the irrationality extends on the fear side as well as the greed side. And as @ChpBstrd likes to point out, interest rates on cash are not unattractive right now.

I have only been putting new money into cash and cash equivalents the past year or two to reduce exposure prior to fire. At a certain point, I'll consider going back to stocks with new money. At a lower point, I might consider using the cash store to increase stock holdings.

oops! sorry! being too serious for top is in thread!

[ChpBstrd]

I entered a one year collar hedge on QQQ in early July because the top was in. Basically locked in 10% downside and 15% upside limits for a year.

The last couple of days' volatility has been a great lesson about gamma. Gamma is the rate of change in an option's delta as the stock's market price moves closer to or further away from the option's strike price. Delta is the amount of change, in cents, that an option will make in response to a $1 change in the stock.

I.e. As the share price falls closer to my long put, the put becomes increasingly sensitive to the share price. Thus the combined position acts like a spring that offers increasing resistance to falling further, even if my QQQ shares are falling hard.

This is how my whole QQQ portfolio, which even includes some unhedged positions, is down just over a third as much as the stock is down today.

Vega - an option's sensitivity to a change in volatility - has been helping too. I'll give up some vega gains as things settle down.

TL;DR: I hedged at the top, because it was in. It worked out well and I lost tens of thousands less than I'd otherwise have lost. Thorsach haters can cry over their portfolios today.

[maizefolk]

By my math, another day like today and we'll officially be into "correction" territory, right?

And of course from correction onwards to bear market, market crash, market depression, despair, and destitution.

[waltworks]

By my math I'll get another 1000m of vert in today on my mountain bike... is something happening with the stock market?

-W

[dividendman]

Also - CNN business fear and greed index says 20 - extreme fear is driving the US markets.

WWBD?

*ie, buffet.

But likely too early to tell. When will it be more obvious if this is a minnor blip or a starting trend that will continue?

Anyone with predictions on how low we will go before a change?

My understanding is the the irrationality extends on the fear side as well as the greed side. And as @ChpBstrd likes to point out, interest rates on cash are not unattractive right now.

I have only been putting new money into cash and cash equivalents the past year or two to reduce exposure prior to fire. At a certain point, I'll consider going back to stocks with new money. At a lower point, I might consider using the cash store to increase stock holdings.

oops! sorry! being too serious for top is in thread!

Buffet already dumped 50% of his apple stake months ago, because he knew top was in!!

I'm selling everything and investing in dogecoin!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

That Covid 'crash' didn't even register on the bubble bursting naming registry (Dot.com collapse, GFC)...  By the time people started to wonder what to do, the Fed was swooping in and markets were back up.  Also, 2019 had been good, so giving back some gains didn't cause too much alarm, then we were off to the races again.  On the other hand, the dot.com collapse took over 10 years for the NASDAQ to reach new highs and many companies went under.

[solon]

Also - CNN business fear and greed index says 20 - extreme fear is driving the US markets.

WWBD?

*ie, buffet.

But likely too early to tell. When will it be more obvious if this is a minnor blip or a starting trend that will continue?

Anyone with predictions on how low we will go before a change?

My understanding is the the irrationality extends on the fear side as well as the greed side. And as @ChpBstrd likes to point out, interest rates on cash are not unattractive right now.

I have only been putting new money into cash and cash equivalents the past year or two to reduce exposure prior to fire. At a certain point, I'll consider going back to stocks with new money. At a lower point, I might consider using the cash store to increase stock holdings.

oops! sorry! being too serious for top is in thread!

Buffet already dumped 50% of his apple stake months ago, because he knew top was in!!

I'm selling everything and investing in dogecoin!

That is soooo 2021

[dividendman]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

That Covid 'crash' didn't even register on the bubble bursting naming registry (Dot.com collapse, GFC)...  By the time people started to wonder what to do, the Fed was swooping in and markets were back up.  Also, 2019 had been good, so giving back some gains didn't cause too much alarm, then we were off to the races again.  On the other hand, the dot.com collapse took over 10 years for the NASDAQ to reach new highs and many companies went under.

Oh yes, I forgot that crashes don't count if they don't get named by some random people or last long enough.... Crash naming top is in!

[Alternatepriorities]

The top is falling!

[dragoncar]

Just got back from France, what did I miss?

[ChpBstrd]

Anthony Blinken may be to blame for the top being in.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump-tied-538s-new-polling-averages/story?id=112494481

During a call with G7 foreign ministers on Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his counterparts that a response from Iran and Hezbollah to the recent assassinations of a high-ranking official from the Lebanese militant group and Hamas' top political leader could begin in the next 24 to 48 hours, according to two officials familiar with the matter.

So buy stocks when the war starts, because the top will be in again.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

That Covid 'crash' didn't even register on the bubble bursting naming registry (Dot.com collapse, GFC)...  By the time people started to wonder what to do, the Fed was swooping in and markets were back up.  Also, 2019 had been good, so giving back some gains didn't cause too much alarm, then we were off to the races again.  On the other hand, the dot.com collapse took over 10 years for the NASDAQ to reach new highs and many companies went under.

Oh yes, I forgot that crashes don't count if they don't get named by some random people or last long enough.... Crash naming top is in!

I really hope this one gets called the ThorCrash... 

[dividendman]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

That Covid 'crash' didn't even register on the bubble bursting naming registry (Dot.com collapse, GFC)...  By the time people started to wonder what to do, the Fed was swooping in and markets were back up.  Also, 2019 had been good, so giving back some gains didn't cause too much alarm, then we were off to the races again.  On the other hand, the dot.com collapse took over 10 years for the NASDAQ to reach new highs and many companies went under.

Oh yes, I forgot that crashes don't count if they don't get named by some random people or last long enough.... Crash naming top is in!

I really hope this one gets called the ThorCrash...

Me too! Proper tribute to the prophet.... But is this even a crash? Is the maker even down 10%? Who knows

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

That Covid 'crash' didn't even register on the bubble bursting naming registry (Dot.com collapse, GFC)...  By the time people started to wonder what to do, the Fed was swooping in and markets were back up.  Also, 2019 had been good, so giving back some gains didn't cause too much alarm, then we were off to the races again.  On the other hand, the dot.com collapse took over 10 years for the NASDAQ to reach new highs and many companies went under.

Oh yes, I forgot that crashes don't count if they don't get named by some random people or last long enough.... Crash naming top is in!

I really hope this one gets called the ThorCrash...

Me too! Proper tribute to the prophet.... But is this even a crash? Is the maker even down 10%? Who knows

If the Fed doesn't step in with a rate cut and maybe some QE, this could become a crash.  The Yen carry trade is being blamed for the initial selloff but contagion could ensue with this sudden yield inversion and risk asset sell-off...  I'm betting that Jerome will ride in on a white horse before it gets too crashy though

[dividendman]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

Maybe not, but plenty of us we here for the covid 30%+ crash. We need a good crash and recession. I've been looking for a car deal for years.

Also... Top is in!

That Covid 'crash' didn't even register on the bubble bursting naming registry (Dot.com collapse, GFC)...  By the time people started to wonder what to do, the Fed was swooping in and markets were back up.  Also, 2019 had been good, so giving back some gains didn't cause too much alarm, then we were off to the races again.  On the other hand, the dot.com collapse took over 10 years for the NASDAQ to reach new highs and many companies went under.

Oh yes, I forgot that crashes don't count if they don't get named by some random people or last long enough.... Crash naming top is in!

I really hope this one gets called the ThorCrash...

Me too! Proper tribute to the prophet.... But is this even a crash? Is the maker even down 10%? Who knows

If the Fed doesn't step in with a rate cut and maybe some QE, this could become a crash.  The Yen carry trade is being blamed for the initial selloff but contagion could ensue with this sudden yield inversion and risk asset sell-off...  I'm betting that Jerome will ride in on a white horse before it gets too crashy though

I doubt the fed does anything before their usual September meeting.... But I hope they stay put so we can get a crash down to 2017 levels so thorstach will be proven correct!

[Glenstache]

I know the Top is truly in when the daily post count on this thread spikes!

[shrimpwd]

Top Topic Tops Threads!

[mistymoney]

Also - CNN business fear and greed index says 20 - extreme fear is driving the US markets.

WWBD?

*ie, buffet.

But likely too early to tell. When will it be more obvious if this is a minnor blip or a starting trend that will continue?

Anyone with predictions on how low we will go before a change?

My understanding is the the irrationality extends on the fear side as well as the greed side. And as @ChpBstrd likes to point out, interest rates on cash are not unattractive right now.

I have only been putting new money into cash and cash equivalents the past year or two to reduce exposure prior to fire. At a certain point, I'll consider going back to stocks with new money. At a lower point, I might consider using the cash store to increase stock holdings.

oops! sorry! being too serious for top is in thread!

Buffet already dumped 50% of his apple stake months ago, because he knew top was in!!

I'm selling everything and investing in dogecoin!

.

solid play!

[ChpBstrd]

Who the hell was still doing a yen carry trade when Japanese rates are rising and US rates are about to fall?

How was the obvious not priced in? Forex idiots don't know the top is in.

[GuitarStv]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I had just started investing and by mid 2007 had put everything that I owned into the market.  2008 was an exciting year.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I had just started investing and by mid 2007 had put everything that I owned into the market.  2008 was an exciting year.

Most folks in this forum have real skin in the game this time around.  Another GFC would be quite a ride

[ChpBstrd]

I don't think too many Mustachians have been through the 2008 or 2000's bubble burstings, so this 'top is in' thread could get interesting.  Not that it matters because the Top is IN

I had just started investing and by mid 2007 had put everything that I owned into the market.  2008 was an exciting year.

Most folks in this forum have real skin in the game this time around.  Another GFC would be quite a ride

I know I'm annoying because I keep harping on the benefit of options collars to control risk, but it is possible to experience another GFC while invested in stocks and not experience the "ride".

Even today it is possible to enter a costless collar with the following trades, that will limit your possible downside to 10% while allowing 16% upside over the next 500 days (December 19, 2025).

Buy 100 QQQ for $439/share
Sell 1 call at 510 (16.2% above today's price) for about $25
Buy 1 put at 394.78 strike (10% below today's price) for about $25

If you don't like these specific numbers or dates, different selections are possible, but the point remains the same. There's no reason to fear, even if the top is in.