Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3015552 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9800 on: July 28, 2023, 11:39:04 AM »
Top saggy boobs is in!

Villanelle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9801 on: July 28, 2023, 11:56:46 AM »
Boobs are bottoming out.  Braless top is in.

TreeLeaf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9802 on: July 28, 2023, 12:57:27 PM »
Boobs are bottoming out.  Braless top is in.

Wow there are boobs here now.

Usually that's a sign the top is off, or in..or something.

Wait - what were we talking about again? Lol 😂

Adventine

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9803 on: July 28, 2023, 01:07:35 PM »
Free the top-tops!

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9804 on: July 28, 2023, 02:46:45 PM »
S&P 500 now 4.68% from ATH.

Heckler

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9805 on: July 28, 2023, 06:06:22 PM »
I have a "Free hugs" T-shirt.  Fortunately, it must be worn to get free hugs, but it works great at big-top parties like Oktoberfest.

Nicholas Carter

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9806 on: July 29, 2023, 03:37:32 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9807 on: July 29, 2023, 04:34:42 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?

Just me personally, waiting basically my whole adult life (28 years) for the top to be surpassed would feel like a top was in if I'd started investing in 1993, right at the end of the boom.  I can't even fathom.  Most of my expectation of investing in that scenario would involve saving vs. the exciting compound growth I have actually enjoyed.

I did start investing in 1996, quite a bit of that in the Nasdaq which had about a 10 year slump after the tech bubble burst.  I'd argue that the 'seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation' is a very technical way of making that period sound worse than it was.  There were still good returns if you were diversified (including international, real estate, and SP500) and inflation was low.  The Great Financial Collapse of 2008-9 was much worse in terms of a broad wipeout, but also came back relatively quickly and inflation was low during that time.  Both of those recessions turned out to be great 'buy the dip' opportunities if you stayed the course.

Just like the Great Depression changed a generation's outlook on saving, investing, and spending, the Japanese Lost Decade(s) similarly caused families to become much more conservative.  Those both seem 'Top Is In' events.  Sadly, you don't get a 'Top is In' warning until you've lost your stache, then lost more buying the dip and waiting for a top that doesn't return for decades (which feels like forever when you're like raising a family or wanting to retire but can't)...

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9808 on: July 29, 2023, 05:00:12 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?

Just me personally, waiting basically my whole adult life (28 years) for the top to be surpassed would feel like a top was in if I'd started investing in 1993, right at the end of the boom.  I can't even fathom.  Most of my expectation of investing in that scenario would involve saving vs. the exciting compound growth I have actually enjoyed.

I did start investing in 1996, quite a bit of that in the Nasdaq which had about a 10 year slump after the tech bubble burst.  I'd argue that the 'seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation' is a very technical way of making that period sound worse than it was.  There were still good returns if you were diversified (including international, real estate, and SP500) and inflation was low.  The Great Financial Collapse of 2008-9 was much worse in terms of a broad wipeout, but also came back relatively quickly and inflation was low during that time.  Both of those recessions turned out to be great 'buy the dip' opportunities if you stayed the course.

Just like the Great Depression changed a generation's outlook on saving, investing, and spending, the Japanese Lost Decade(s) similarly caused families to become much more conservative.  Those both seem 'Top Is In' events.  Sadly, you don't get a 'Top is In' warning until you've lost your stache, then lost more buying the dip and waiting for a top that doesn't return for decades (which feels like forever when you're like raising a family or wanting to retire but can't)...

To be serious for just a moment - from a historical chart it looks like the Nikkei declined or was essentially flat until 2012, but has risen steadily for the last decade. Iíd be interested in seeing what total returns look like for someone who spent the last 30 years making monthly contributions to it.

My suspicion is that the returns would not look good to the people around here who expect 10%+ per year, but would be better than you think.

You did make me curious about a 60/40 stock/bond strategy. It looks like the 10-year total return for the S&P Japan bond market is 0.5%/year. This looks painful, but Iíd still be interested in seeing how a 60/40 or 80/20 strategy impacts total returns and volatility.

This would temper peopleís hopes that they can work for 10 years then retire and live off investments (unless they have a massively high savings rate), but I expect someone in Japan with a 30 year timeframe would have been OK.

Anyone want to actually do the math? Iím too lazy, so at this point this is just speculation.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9809 on: July 29, 2023, 05:27:05 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?

Just me personally, waiting basically my whole adult life (28 years) for the top to be surpassed would feel like a top was in if I'd started investing in 1993, right at the end of the boom.  I can't even fathom.  Most of my expectation of investing in that scenario would involve saving vs. the exciting compound growth I have actually enjoyed.

I did start investing in 1996, quite a bit of that in the Nasdaq which had about a 10 year slump after the tech bubble burst.  I'd argue that the 'seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation' is a very technical way of making that period sound worse than it was.  There were still good returns if you were diversified (including international, real estate, and SP500) and inflation was low.  The Great Financial Collapse of 2008-9 was much worse in terms of a broad wipeout, but also came back relatively quickly and inflation was low during that time.  Both of those recessions turned out to be great 'buy the dip' opportunities if you stayed the course.

Just like the Great Depression changed a generation's outlook on saving, investing, and spending, the Japanese Lost Decade(s) similarly caused families to become much more conservative.  Those both seem 'Top Is In' events.  Sadly, you don't get a 'Top is In' warning until you've lost your stache, then lost more buying the dip and waiting for a top that doesn't return for decades (which feels like forever when you're like raising a family or wanting to retire but can't)...

To be serious for just a moment - from a historical chart it looks like the Nikkei declined or was essentially flat until 2012, but has risen steadily for the last decade. Iíd be interested in seeing what total returns look like for someone who spent the last 30 years making monthly contributions to it.

My suspicion is that the returns would not look good to the people around here who expect 10%+ per year, but would be better than you think.

You did make me curious about a 60/40 stock/bond strategy. It looks like the 10-year total return for the S&P Japan bond market is 0.5%/year. This looks painful, but Iíd still be interested in seeing how a 60/40 or 80/20 strategy impacts total returns and volatility.

This would temper peopleís hopes that they can work for 10 years then retire and live off investments (unless they have a massively high savings rate), but I expect someone in Japan with a 30 year timeframe would have been OK.

Anyone want to actually do the math? Iím too lazy, so at this point this is just speculation.

The problem with doing all that sort of back-testing style analysis is that you wouldn't understand how it felt to actually be investing during those years.  It's easy to cherry pick and get a sense that everything worked out fine as long as you DCA'ed even when it seemed like you were just throwing good money after bad, failed to catch a falling knife, etc.  but most people do actually give up after a decade of having lost a big chunk of their stache.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2023, 05:29:01 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9810 on: July 29, 2023, 07:00:31 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?

Just me personally, waiting basically my whole adult life (28 years) for the top to be surpassed would feel like a top was in if I'd started investing in 1993, right at the end of the boom.  I can't even fathom.  Most of my expectation of investing in that scenario would involve saving vs. the exciting compound growth I have actually enjoyed.

I did start investing in 1996, quite a bit of that in the Nasdaq which had about a 10 year slump after the tech bubble burst.  I'd argue that the 'seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation' is a very technical way of making that period sound worse than it was.  There were still good returns if you were diversified (including international, real estate, and SP500) and inflation was low.  The Great Financial Collapse of 2008-9 was much worse in terms of a broad wipeout, but also came back relatively quickly and inflation was low during that time.  Both of those recessions turned out to be great 'buy the dip' opportunities if you stayed the course.

Just like the Great Depression changed a generation's outlook on saving, investing, and spending, the Japanese Lost Decade(s) similarly caused families to become much more conservative.  Those both seem 'Top Is In' events.  Sadly, you don't get a 'Top is In' warning until you've lost your stache, then lost more buying the dip and waiting for a top that doesn't return for decades (which feels like forever when you're like raising a family or wanting to retire but can't)...

To be serious for just a moment - from a historical chart it looks like the Nikkei declined or was essentially flat until 2012, but has risen steadily for the last decade. Iíd be interested in seeing what total returns look like for someone who spent the last 30 years making monthly contributions to it.

My suspicion is that the returns would not look good to the people around here who expect 10%+ per year, but would be better than you think.

You did make me curious about a 60/40 stock/bond strategy. It looks like the 10-year total return for the S&P Japan bond market is 0.5%/year. This looks painful, but Iíd still be interested in seeing how a 60/40 or 80/20 strategy impacts total returns and volatility.

This would temper peopleís hopes that they can work for 10 years then retire and live off investments (unless they have a massively high savings rate), but I expect someone in Japan with a 30 year timeframe would have been OK.

Anyone want to actually do the math? Iím too lazy, so at this point this is just speculation.

The problem with doing all that sort of back-testing style analysis is that you wouldn't understand how it felt to actually be investing during those years.  It's easy to cherry pick and get a sense that everything worked out fine as long as you DCA'ed even when it seemed like you were just throwing good money after bad, failed to catch a falling knife, etc.  but most people do actually give up after a decade of having lost a big chunk of their stache.

That's true. But the value in doing backtesting like this would be to prove (or disprove) to yourself that the strategy really does work, even in the worst imaginable scenario.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9811 on: July 29, 2023, 08:22:25 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?

Just me personally, waiting basically my whole adult life (28 years) for the top to be surpassed would feel like a top was in if I'd started investing in 1993, right at the end of the boom.  I can't even fathom.  Most of my expectation of investing in that scenario would involve saving vs. the exciting compound growth I have actually enjoyed.

I did start investing in 1996, quite a bit of that in the Nasdaq which had about a 10 year slump after the tech bubble burst.  I'd argue that the 'seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation' is a very technical way of making that period sound worse than it was.  There were still good returns if you were diversified (including international, real estate, and SP500) and inflation was low.  The Great Financial Collapse of 2008-9 was much worse in terms of a broad wipeout, but also came back relatively quickly and inflation was low during that time.  Both of those recessions turned out to be great 'buy the dip' opportunities if you stayed the course.

Just like the Great Depression changed a generation's outlook on saving, investing, and spending, the Japanese Lost Decade(s) similarly caused families to become much more conservative.  Those both seem 'Top Is In' events.  Sadly, you don't get a 'Top is In' warning until you've lost your stache, then lost more buying the dip and waiting for a top that doesn't return for decades (which feels like forever when you're like raising a family or wanting to retire but can't)...

To be serious for just a moment - from a historical chart it looks like the Nikkei declined or was essentially flat until 2012, but has risen steadily for the last decade. Iíd be interested in seeing what total returns look like for someone who spent the last 30 years making monthly contributions to it.

My suspicion is that the returns would not look good to the people around here who expect 10%+ per year, but would be better than you think.

You did make me curious about a 60/40 stock/bond strategy. It looks like the 10-year total return for the S&P Japan bond market is 0.5%/year. This looks painful, but Iíd still be interested in seeing how a 60/40 or 80/20 strategy impacts total returns and volatility.

This would temper peopleís hopes that they can work for 10 years then retire and live off investments (unless they have a massively high savings rate), but I expect someone in Japan with a 30 year timeframe would have been OK.

Anyone want to actually do the math? Iím too lazy, so at this point this is just speculation.

The problem with doing all that sort of back-testing style analysis is that you wouldn't understand how it felt to actually be investing during those years.  It's easy to cherry pick and get a sense that everything worked out fine as long as you DCA'ed even when it seemed like you were just throwing good money after bad, failed to catch a falling knife, etc.  but most people do actually give up after a decade of having lost a big chunk of their stache.

That's true. But the value in doing backtesting like this would be to prove (or disprove) to yourself that the strategy really does work, even in the worst imaginable scenario.

Exactly - the reason the majority of people under-perform the market is because they donít have a plan and they get emotional. The entire reason you want to look at history is to understand what will work and what wonít work.

I agree it would be extremely difficult to stick with a plan if you see 10+ years of declining markets. Donít you think it would be valuable to know?

Hey! Someone did the math so we do know how it would work out. https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/japans-lost-decades-30-years-of-negative-returns-from-the-nikkei-225

It looks like someone who dollar-cost-averaged into the Nikkei over 30 years would have an average return of about 5% per year. That isnít great, but it would beat losing money, panicking, locking in your losses, then sticking everything in a savings account for the rest of your life. I had co-workers in 2006 who did that.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9812 on: July 30, 2023, 01:42:37 AM »
It looks like someone who dollar-cost-averaged into the Nikkei over 30 years would have an average return of about 5% per year. That isnít great, but it would beat losing money, panicking, locking in your losses, then sticking everything in a savings account for the rest of your life. I had co-workers in 2006 who did that.
Did you mean another year?  In 2006, the S&P 500 rose +16%.  The only people selling were featured in "The Big Short".

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9813 on: July 30, 2023, 08:25:14 AM »
...
That's true. But the value in doing backtesting like this would be to prove (or disprove) to yourself that the strategy really does work, even in the worst imaginable scenario.

Exactly - the reason the majority of people under-perform the market is because they donít have a plan and they get emotional. The entire reason you want to look at history is to understand what will work and what wonít work.

I agree it would be extremely difficult to stick with a plan if you see 10+ years of declining markets. Donít you think it would be valuable to know?

Hey! Someone did the math so we do know how it would work out. https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/japans-lost-decades-30-years-of-negative-returns-from-the-nikkei-225

It looks like someone who dollar-cost-averaged into the Nikkei over 30 years would have an average return of about 5% per year. That isnít great, but it would beat losing money, panicking, locking in your losses, then sticking everything in a savings account for the rest of your life. I had co-workers in 2006 who did that.

In reality, most investors would give up on their domestic market and start investing more internationally, at least as much as they are able.  It would be awfully hard to see the rest of the world markets soaring and not diversify.

Although 'staying the course' is the golden rule of investing, the Nikkei is an example of where this was demonstrably suboptimal, as opposed to increased exposure to many other global assets (I would imagine there is a Japanese mutual fund that follows the S&P500).  US investors are spoiled by our domestic market being 'The Market', but many international investors have a harder decision of how much to allocate to our market and have limitations to the degree that they are able.  It was very interesting living in Norway and Dubai and talking to my colleagues about investing and retirement!  Governments want their citizens to invest domestically and restrict  international investing, as well as international companies having more traditional pension set ups...  but this is probably going off topic.

Top still in.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9814 on: July 30, 2023, 08:46:36 AM »
...
That's true. But the value in doing backtesting like this would be to prove (or disprove) to yourself that the strategy really does work, even in the worst imaginable scenario.

Exactly - the reason the majority of people under-perform the market is because they donít have a plan and they get emotional. The entire reason you want to look at history is to understand what will work and what wonít work.

I agree it would be extremely difficult to stick with a plan if you see 10+ years of declining markets. Donít you think it would be valuable to know?

Hey! Someone did the math so we do know how it would work out. https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/japans-lost-decades-30-years-of-negative-returns-from-the-nikkei-225

It looks like someone who dollar-cost-averaged into the Nikkei over 30 years would have an average return of about 5% per year. That isnít great, but it would beat losing money, panicking, locking in your losses, then sticking everything in a savings account for the rest of your life. I had co-workers in 2006 who did that.

In reality, most investors would give up on their domestic market and start investing more internationally, at least as much as they are able.  It would be awfully hard to see the rest of the world markets soaring and not diversify.

Although 'staying the course' is the golden rule of investing, the Nikkei is an example of where this was demonstrably suboptimal, as opposed to increased exposure to many other global assets (I would imagine there is a Japanese mutual fund that follows the S&P500).  US investors are spoiled by our domestic market being 'The Market', but many international investors have a harder decision of how much to allocate to our market and have limitations to the degree that they are able.  It was very interesting living in Norway and Dubai and talking to my colleagues about investing and retirement!  Governments want their citizens to invest domestically and restrict  international investing, as well as international companies having more traditional pension set ups...  but this is probably going off topic.

Top still in.

I agree with - you. If I had lived and worked in Japan during those 30 years hopefully I would have invested globally. But, even someone who only invested in Japanese markets would have been OK if they stuck with a plan, kept their expenses low, and invested their savings in a broad-based index.

This is also another example of the benefits of diversification. Google tells me the total capitalization of the Japanese market is $6,718 billion While the total capitalization of the US market is $46,199 billion. The US market is much bigger than the Japanese market, so a US-only investment plan is still capturing more of the total world market than a Japanese-only plan.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9815 on: July 30, 2023, 04:56:51 PM »
I agree with - you. If I had lived and worked in Japan during those 30 years hopefully I would have invested globally. But, even someone who only invested in Japanese markets would have been OK if they stuck with a plan, kept their expenses low, and invested their savings in a broad-based index.

This is also another example of the benefits of diversification. Google tells me the total capitalization of the Japanese market is $6,718 billion While the total capitalization of the US market is $46,199 billion. The US market is much bigger than the Japanese market, so a US-only investment plan is still capturing more of the total world market than a Japanese-only plan.

It's worth remembering that, at the time of the peak, Japanese companies' market caps were roughly equal to the entire USAs market cap.



That both gives a sense of the size of the bubble, but in late 1980s Japan, a person might have reasonably argued a domestic japan focused investment strategy made sense for the same reason some folks argue with can skip international diversification today (Japan was a big fraction of the global market cap and had historically better returns than the "international" (e.g. US plus the rest of the non-Japanese world).

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9816 on: July 30, 2023, 06:02:23 PM »
Exactly Maizefolk, I wasn't going to wade in to the quagmire of trying to convince folks looking at past returns of a failed 'modern day Rome' about how experiencing all of it in real time makes these investing decisions all but impossible.  For all we know, the US is following in these footsteps ("history might not be repeating, but rhymes").  You think you can inoculate yourself against it, but then you hear fellow American investors saying that, even when presented with all the data - 'But, even someone who only invested in Japanese markets would have been OK if they stuck with a plan, kept their expenses low, and invested their savings in a broad-based index.'  LOL

If commenters really think that 5% returns are satisfactory, then they should be 100% Treasuries right now - https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us  That is 5% risk free (with the right mix of short and long term)!

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9817 on: July 30, 2023, 06:03:33 PM »
If I remember correctly, at one time before the Japanese bubble popped, Tokyo real estate had a higher value than the entire US real estate market.   If not that high, it was certainly crazy high.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9818 on: July 31, 2023, 07:28:12 AM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?
Good question: What is a top?

Presumably the top is the highest price paid before a period of falling prices. But the top is in all the time if your defined period of falling prices is short enough, so to define a top is to define period of time. I.e. On a two-day basis the top is in very frequently, but on a two decade basis the top is very rarely in. No one should care if at 2 p.m. I proclaim the top is in for today, but if I claim the top is in for the next 2 years that's a much more interesting claim.

Likewise, it is unfair to the person predicting the top is in to require that the top be in for all eternity. What they really mean to say is that stock prices will fall after this point for a significant period of time. Yet we have never defined this period of time, so the claim cannot be operationalized or proven/debunked. I.e. if @thorstach said in December 2021 that the top was in for the next year, they would have been correct, but if they said in December 2021 that the top was in for the next five years we'd still be waiting on the outcome. With no timeframe defined, we are left to debate whether the top is really in or not.

Thus I propose we vote on a sitewide standard for top talk. I cannot insert a poll here, but here are some options:

a) The top is in means for one year
b) The top is in means for two years
c) The top is in means for three years
d) The top is in means for five years

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9819 on: July 31, 2023, 10:20:26 AM »
If I remember correctly, at one time before the Japanese bubble popped, Tokyo real estate had a higher value than the entire US real estate market.   If not that high, it was certainly crazy high.

That's certainly be consistent with this quote:

"At their peak, prices in central Tokyo were such that the 1.15 square kilometer Tokyo Imperial Palace grounds were estimated to be worth more than all the land in the entire state of California."

Doing some unit conversion and inflation correction it sounds like real estate in Tokyo peaked around $50,000/square foot (in today's dollars).

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9820 on: July 31, 2023, 11:11:16 AM »
If I remember correctly, at one time before the Japanese bubble popped, Tokyo real estate had a higher value than the entire US real estate market.   If not that high, it was certainly crazy high.

That's certainly be consistent with this quote:

"At their peak, prices in central Tokyo were such that the 1.15 square kilometer Tokyo Imperial Palace grounds were estimated to be worth more than all the land in the entire state of California."

Doing some unit conversion and inflation correction it sounds like real estate in Tokyo peaked around $50,000/square foot (in today's dollars).

Ultimately land value reflects what can be built on it. There is nothing that could ever be built on that land to justify that cost. Prime land on the Las Vegas strip is maybe $500/SF, even in downtown Manhattan it might reach the low thousands of dollars per square foot (though really it's based more on the total floor area that can be built).

It looks like a 31,000 SF lot in downtown Hong Kong sold for almost $100,000 per square foot in 2017. But that was an outlier with even the most expensive markets in the world only reaching about $5,000 per square foot.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9821 on: July 31, 2023, 11:11:28 AM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?
Good question: What is a top?

Presumably the top is the highest price paid before a period of falling prices. But the top is in all the time if your defined period of falling prices is short enough, so to define a top is to define period of time. I.e. On a two-day basis the top is in very frequently, but on a two decade basis the top is very rarely in. No one should care if at 2 p.m. I proclaim the top is in for today, but if I claim the top is in for the next 2 years that's a much more interesting claim.

Likewise, it is unfair to the person predicting the top is in to require that the top be in for all eternity. What they really mean to say is that stock prices will fall after this point for a significant period of time. Yet we have never defined this period of time, so the claim cannot be operationalized or proven/debunked. I.e. if @thorstach said in December 2021 that the top was in for the next year, they would have been correct, but if they said in December 2021 that the top was in for the next five years we'd still be waiting on the outcome. With no timeframe defined, we are left to debate whether the top is really in or not.

Thus I propose we vote on a sitewide standard for top talk. I cannot insert a poll here, but here are some options:

a) The top is in means for one year
b) The top is in means for two years
c) The top is in means for three years
d) The top is in means for five years

It has finally happened, we can't even agree on what we mean when we say 'the top is in'...  I guess y'all know what that means

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9822 on: July 31, 2023, 03:31:16 PM »
Once again pulling this thread from relentless shitposting to a philosophical question that's actually interesting: What does it even mean for a market to top? The Nikkei 225 achieved an inflation adjusted value in 1993 that it did not return to until 2021. Does that 28 year period mean that 1993 should be considered a "top" in some way that actually changes the advice you would give to an investor in 1992? If yes, would you have the same advice for an American in 1998, right before seven years of the US indices failing to beat inflation? If no, would you consider a market to have topped if it took 30, 40, or 80 years to return to all time highs?
Good question: What is a top?

Presumably the top is the highest price paid before a period of falling prices. But the top is in all the time if your defined period of falling prices is short enough, so to define a top is to define period of time. I.e. On a two-day basis the top is in very frequently, but on a two decade basis the top is very rarely in. No one should care if at 2 p.m. I proclaim the top is in for today, but if I claim the top is in for the next 2 years that's a much more interesting claim.

Likewise, it is unfair to the person predicting the top is in to require that the top be in for all eternity. What they really mean to say is that stock prices will fall after this point for a significant period of time. Yet we have never defined this period of time, so the claim cannot be operationalized or proven/debunked. I.e. if @thorstach said in December 2021 that the top was in for the next year, they would have been correct, but if they said in December 2021 that the top was in for the next five years we'd still be waiting on the outcome. With no timeframe defined, we are left to debate whether the top is really in or not.

Thus I propose we vote on a sitewide standard for top talk. I cannot insert a poll here, but here are some options:

a) The top is in means for one year
b) The top is in means for two years
c) The top is in means for three years
d) The top is in means for five years

It has finally happened, we can't even agree on what we mean when we say 'the top is in'...  I guess y'all know what that means

It means the top is in?

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9823 on: July 31, 2023, 06:48:27 PM »
Babel top is in

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9824 on: July 31, 2023, 10:38:21 PM »
Thus I propose we vote on a sitewide standard for top talk. I cannot insert a poll here, but here are some options:

a) The top is in means for one year
b) The top is in means for two years
c) The top is in means for three years
d) The top is in means for five years

This is clearly apocryphal. The top is in for however long it needs to be for the profit to stand justifiedÖ

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9825 on: August 01, 2023, 12:03:35 AM »
Thus I propose we vote on a sitewide standard for top talk. I cannot insert a poll here, but here are some options:

a) The top is in means for one year
b) The top is in means for two years
c) The top is in means for three years
d) The top is in means for five years

This is clearly apocryphal. The top is in for however long it needs to be for the profit to stand justifiedÖ

forever and ever amen

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9826 on: August 06, 2023, 04:45:34 PM »
This article says the SP 500 will go up by about 10% per year for the next ten years. It has reasons and charts with lines on them and everything. But the author does warn that there could be volatility on the way.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-secular-bull-market-cycle-sp500-triple-technicals-2023-8

Iím having trouble accepting this idea, because of course the top is in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9827 on: August 06, 2023, 05:11:27 PM »
This article says the SP 500 will go up by about 10% per year for the next ten years. It has reasons and charts with lines on them and everything. But the author does warn that there could be volatility on the way.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-secular-bull-market-cycle-sp500-triple-technicals-2023-8

Iím having trouble accepting this idea, because of course the top is in.

I mean thatís pretty much what itís always done.  This time itís different though.  Because this time the top is in

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9828 on: August 07, 2023, 09:58:14 AM »
This article says the SP 500 will go up by about 10% per year for the next ten years. It has reasons and charts with lines on them and everything. But the author does warn that there could be volatility on the way.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-secular-bull-market-cycle-sp500-triple-technicals-2023-8

Iím having trouble accepting this idea, because of course the top is in.
Technical analysis top is in.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9829 on: August 07, 2023, 11:46:15 AM »
This article says the SP 500 will go up by about 10% per year for the next ten years. It has reasons and charts with lines on them and everything. But the author does warn that there could be volatility on the way.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-secular-bull-market-cycle-sp500-triple-technicals-2023-8

Iím having trouble accepting this idea, because of course the top is in.

I mean thatís pretty much what itís always done.  This time itís different though.  Because this time the top is in

We are closing in on 10,000 posts here for this very reason... The top is in as it always has been and always will be. May the thread live forever even through these dark days while we flounder below the GOAT MOAT.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9830 on: August 07, 2023, 05:30:57 PM »

We are closing in on 10,000 posts here for this very reason... The top is in as it always has been and always will be. May the thread live forever even through these dark days while we flounder below the GOAT MOAT.

Oh crap this threads going to make senior mustachian before I do

ATtiny85

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9831 on: August 07, 2023, 06:30:04 PM »

We are closing in on 10,000 posts here for this very reason... The top is in as it always has been and always will be. May the thread live forever even through these dark days while we flounder below the GOAT MOAT.

Oh crap this threads going to make senior mustachian before I do

Challenge accepted.

Zamboni

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9832 on: August 07, 2023, 07:34:40 PM »
then top is definitely in

Radioherd88

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9833 on: August 08, 2023, 06:48:07 AM »
Got a large chunk of inheritance to invest, but since the top is in, can't convince myself to invest more than 20% of it for now.

First world problems - our investments for the past 8 years are enjoying the top at least.

I'm pretty conservative and like to hedge, so would rather wait and see what happens next few months and risk missing out on more gains (since i'll get those gains for what i have).

Top is in...so Radioherd is only partially in...for now.. lol

Must_ache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9834 on: August 08, 2023, 09:53:17 AM »
Top is in.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9835 on: August 16, 2023, 02:13:01 PM »
Guess we finally called the top correctly and are done.  Good job everyone, cheers!

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9836 on: August 16, 2023, 02:29:57 PM »
Got a large chunk of inheritance to invest, but since the top is in, can't convince myself to invest more than 20% of it for now.

First world problems - our investments for the past 8 years are enjoying the top at least.

I'm pretty conservative and like to hedge, so would rather wait and see what happens next few months and risk missing out on more gains (since i'll get those gains for what i have).

Top is in...so Radioherd is only partially in...for now.. lol

Scandium

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9837 on: August 24, 2023, 09:25:08 AM »
This article says the SP 500 will go up by about 10% per year for the next ten years. It has reasons and charts with lines on them and everything. But the author does warn that there could be volatility on the way.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-secular-bull-market-cycle-sp500-triple-technicals-2023-8

Iím having trouble accepting this idea, because of course the top is in.

Wow. "could" is doing a lot of work in that headline

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9838 on: August 24, 2023, 09:31:24 AM »
Guess we finally called the top correctly and are done.  Good job everyone, cheers!
But if the top WAS in then how is it true the top IS in?

E.g. Dinosoars ROAMED the Earth is not the same meaning as dinosaurs ROAM the Earth.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9839 on: August 24, 2023, 09:41:21 AM »
Guess we finally called the top correctly and are done.  Good job everyone, cheers!
But if the top WAS in then how is it true the top IS in?

E.g. Dinosoars ROAMED the Earth is not the same meaning as dinosaurs ROAM the Earth.

Totally true, no one should ever say the Top Was In, the paradox would tear apart reality.  It's unfortunate, because the top was in...  but at least the Top Is In!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9840 on: September 12, 2023, 12:54:06 PM »
Historical top is in:

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9841 on: September 12, 2023, 01:47:25 PM »
Historical top is in:


Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9842 on: September 12, 2023, 02:24:48 PM »
I first read it as "hysterical" not historical. 

Top is in!

caracarn

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9843 on: September 12, 2023, 08:30:57 PM »
Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?
I think it means "Any gains over the last 70 years have been eventually erased by the next bear market".   Now that seems like BS as clearly the market is higher now than it was in 1950.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9844 on: September 12, 2023, 11:40:50 PM »
Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?
I think it means "Any gains over the last 70 years have been eventually erased by the next bear market".   Now that seems like BS as clearly the market is higher now than it was in 1950.

So it is saying that after stocks go up, they go back down again?

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9845 on: September 13, 2023, 12:45:17 AM »
Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?
I think it means "Any gains over the last 70 years have been eventually erased by the next bear market".   Now that seems like BS as clearly the market is higher now than it was in 1950.

So it is saying that after stocks go up, they go back down again?
It's only talking about gains after an inversion happens.  More importantly though, it's a pretty graph so it must be true.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9846 on: September 13, 2023, 07:50:34 AM »
Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?
I think it means "Any gains over the last 70 years have been eventually erased by the next bear market".   Now that seems like BS as clearly the market is higher now than it was in 1950.
I think it means that gains after an inversion always get wiped out by a subsequent bear market.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9847 on: September 13, 2023, 08:40:01 AM »
Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?
I think it means "Any gains over the last 70 years have been eventually erased by the next bear market".   Now that seems like BS as clearly the market is higher now than it was in 1950.
I think it means that gains after an inversion always get wiped out by a subsequent bear market.

So, Iím just going to:
1 wait until there is not an inversion and the stock market market goes up.
2 100% into SP 500
3 Profit!
4 Stock market never goes down!!!

This plan is brilliant.

ATtiny85

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9848 on: September 13, 2023, 08:42:26 AM »
Iíve read that caption 5 times and now my head hurts. Can you explain it to me like Iím a 5 year old, or a golden retriever?
I think it means "Any gains over the last 70 years have been eventually erased by the next bear market".   Now that seems like BS as clearly the market is higher now than it was in 1950.
I think it means that gains after an inversion always get wiped out by a subsequent bear market.

So, Iím just going to:
1 wait until there is not an inversion and the stock market market goes up.
2 100% into SP 500
3 Profit!
4 Stock market never goes down!!!

This plan is brilliant.

That plan forgets the solid law that The Top is In. I pity the fool who forgets that fact.

Heckler

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9849 on: September 13, 2023, 10:06:08 PM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

VIX has been above 15 in the first five months of 2023, and all but 3 days of August, and yet we are +100k NW since January 1. 

Epic thread sir @thorstach . Epic thread.  Chapeau.


<edit> +135,184 CAD invested to be exact.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2023, 10:13:29 PM by Heckler »