Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2302964 times)

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9000 on: February 23, 2022, 08:52:29 AM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?
Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Especially when wearing wicker shoes

Carrot top must be in?

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9001 on: February 23, 2022, 08:54:08 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If this is anything like February/March of 2020, we'll start seeing people that never post start posting about cashing out and how they knew this was going to happen. Some people feel compelled to do something during a correction to feel in control even if it doesn't actually help in the long run. I'm cool with a correction whether we get back to new highs in a month or it stays down for a few more months. I'm going to keep buying like I normally do, enjoy the discount, wait until things recover, then enjoy my larger investment account balances.

Either way, the top is in.

It's nothing like March 2020, which was a short term reaction ot a coordinated global emergency.  It couldn't be more different, imo.

Current action is more like the sort of patterns that we have seen at major market turning points where there is a genuine topping process played out over a year or more, as the market sells off, rallies, confuses both bulls and bears, before ultimately entering a well defined downtrend.

If you go back and look at the market over 2007, 2000, 1973, 1966.. those tops all play out over that sort of time frame.

My own feeling is that stock market sentiment, while it taken a bit of a dent in recent weeks, is still very high. Most people are still expecting forward returns to be above historical average despite all the evidence pointing towards the opposite.  It takes a few years of lousy performance to unwind that sort of exuberance., not just a couple of months.

So you are saying that the top is in?

Because patterns and feelings?

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9002 on: February 23, 2022, 09:26:21 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If the market tanks 50% I'll still be posting jokingly on this thread... because one thing we'll know for sure then... the Top won't be in!

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9003 on: February 23, 2022, 09:57:59 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If the market tanks 50% I'll still be posting jokingly on this thread... because one thing we'll know for sure then... the Top won't be in!

The whole point of being Mustachian is to build up resilience so that the downturns really don't matter.  If you're saving 20 to 50 percent of your income and have your expenses well under control, you are in FAR better position than almost the entire rest of the world.  So for us, downturns are not things to be feared.  I look at them as shopping opportunities.  More chances to buy more stocks at a discount. 

For non-Mustachians, a downturn in the market and potential job loss is seriously bad news because they are living paycheck to paycheck (or close to it).  But for the people here?  Meh, downturns are things that non-Mustachian's freak out about. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9004 on: February 23, 2022, 10:24:36 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If the market tanks 50% I'll still be posting jokingly on this thread... because one thing we'll know for sure then... the Top won't be in!

The whole point of being Mustachian is to build up resilience so that the downturns really don't matter.  If you're saving 20 to 50 percent of your income and have your expenses well under control, you are in FAR better position than almost the entire rest of the world.  So for us, downturns are not things to be feared.  I look at them as shopping opportunities.  More chances to buy more stocks at a discount. 

For non-Mustachians, a downturn in the market and potential job loss is seriously bad news because they are living paycheck to paycheck (or close to it).  But for the people here?  Meh, downturns are things that non-Mustachian's freak out about.

A downturn, yes.  But the Top being In?  Total annihilation.  End of civilization as we know it.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9005 on: February 23, 2022, 10:32:32 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If the market tanks 50% I'll still be posting jokingly on this thread... because one thing we'll know for sure then... the Top won't be in!

One day in the not too distant future, you値l be sitting on a park bench and the memory of people freaking out about the Top being In will make you chuckle.  Then you値l pick up your machete, and continue traveling through the vast wasteland, careful to stick to the shadows to avoid the roaming gangs of cannibals.  Because the Top was in. 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9006 on: February 23, 2022, 11:01:29 AM »
Being in the market feels like being on this flight - https://youtu.be/kH6QJzmLYtw

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9007 on: February 23, 2022, 01:23:06 PM »
Being in the market feels like being on this flight - https://youtu.be/kH6QJzmLYtw

Investors are going to have to get used to a much more volatile environment going forward. I've pointed out elsewhere that the last decade has been the best period of risk adjusted performance any living person has experienced. It can't continue.. and personally I wouldn't be surprised if I never live through another period so favourable.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9008 on: February 23, 2022, 01:25:24 PM »
how much above average the US stock market has been batting recently:

Quote
Period                           Sharpe Ratio         Sortino Ratio    Nominal CAGR   
Last Trailing 10yrs           1.14                    1.86                   16.11%
May 2009 - Current            1.11                    1.85                   16.37%
Jul 1982-Dec1999              0.81                    1.23                   18.33%
Overall (1972-present)        0.46                    0.67                   10.93%

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9009 on: February 23, 2022, 01:27:58 PM »
how much above average the US stock market has been batting recently:

Quote
Period                           Sharpe Ratio         Sortino Ratio    Nominal CAGR   
Last Trailing 10yrs           1.14                    1.86                   16.11%
May 2009 - Current            1.11                    1.85                   16.37%
Jul 1982-Dec1999              0.81                    1.23                   18.33%
Overall (1972-present)        0.46                    0.67                   10.93%

You don't have to beat around the bush.... are you saying the Top is in or not?!

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9010 on: February 23, 2022, 01:46:32 PM »
how much above average the US stock market has been batting recently:

Quote
Period                           Sharpe Ratio         Sortino Ratio    Nominal CAGR   
Last Trailing 10yrs           1.14                    1.86                   16.11%
May 2009 - Current            1.11                    1.85                   16.37%
Jul 1982-Dec1999              0.81                    1.23                   18.33%
Overall (1972-present)        0.46                    0.67                   10.93%

Not realizing that this entire thread is a joke top is in

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9011 on: February 23, 2022, 02:50:00 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9012 on: February 23, 2022, 02:53:59 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in
I appreciate the regular updates

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9013 on: February 23, 2022, 03:11:17 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

The Rally is SAVED!  S&P500 = 5000 by end of day tomorrow!!

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9014 on: February 23, 2022, 03:48:56 PM »

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9015 on: February 23, 2022, 03:50:49 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

The Rally is SAVED!  S&P500 = 5000 by end of day tomorrow!!

Damn it. I won't even get to buy the dip 😭

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9016 on: February 23, 2022, 04:49:46 PM »
how much above average the US stock market has been batting recently:

Quote
Period                           Sharpe Ratio         Sortino Ratio    Nominal CAGR   
Last Trailing 10yrs           1.14                    1.86                   16.11%
May 2009 - Current            1.11                    1.85                   16.37%
Jul 1982-Dec1999              0.81                    1.23                   18.33%
Overall (1972-present)        0.46                    0.67                   10.93%

Not realizing that this entire thread is a joke top is in

Reminds me of this helpful illustration:


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9017 on: February 23, 2022, 08:28:44 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

You know what, I値l give it to you.  If the S&P 500 goes below the April 11, 2017 price, I will concede the Top was indeed in

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9018 on: February 23, 2022, 09:30:17 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

The Rally is SAVED!  S&P500 = 5000 by end of day tomorrow!!

Damn it. I won't even get to buy the dip 😭

Scratch that, S&P500 = 50 by the end of the day tomorrow!

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9019 on: February 24, 2022, 02:53:44 AM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

The Rally is SAVED!  S&P500 = 5000 by end of day tomorrow!!

Damn it. I won't even get to buy the dip 😭

Scratch that, S&P500 = 50 by the end of the day tomorrow!

😌
« Last Edit: February 24, 2022, 02:55:16 AM by mies »

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9020 on: February 24, 2022, 09:18:09 AM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

You know what, I値l give it to you.  If the S&P 500 goes below the April 11, 2017 price, I will concede the Top was indeed in

I think that already happened in March 2020 during the covid crash.

jeromedawg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9021 on: February 24, 2022, 10:51:52 AM »
Should I TLH now? Looking for the bottom here... wrong thread?

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9022 on: February 24, 2022, 11:45:40 AM »
Should I TLH now? Looking for the bottom here... wrong thread?

The bottom is zero.

Unless the market can go negative. Has anyone looked into this?

jeromedawg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9023 on: February 24, 2022, 11:50:47 AM »
Should I TLH now? Looking for the bottom here... wrong thread?

The bottom is zero.

Unless the market can go negative. Has anyone looked into this?

Will wait for the market to go negative in the meantime...

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9024 on: February 24, 2022, 02:14:46 PM »
Should I TLH now? Looking for the bottom here... wrong thread?

The bottom is zero.

Unless the market can go negative. Has anyone looked into this?

Absolute value top is in

|top is in|


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9025 on: February 24, 2022, 02:23:57 PM »
The real GOAT MOAT is in

You know what, I値l give it to you.  If the S&P 500 goes below the April 11, 2017 price, I will concede the Top was indeed in

I think that already happened in March 2020 during the covid crash.

Huh, I never noticed that.  thorstach knew all along! 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9026 on: February 25, 2022, 08:08:11 AM »
Wow, this week has been one of a kind.  Top is(n't) in?  (TL;DR I have no idea what is going on)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9027 on: February 25, 2022, 10:45:46 AM »
Wow, this week has been one of a kind.  Top is(n't) in?  (TL;DR I have no idea what is going on)

Thorstach really posted at the perfect time.  I知 pretty convinced he痴 from the future

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9028 on: February 25, 2022, 11:05:50 AM »
Wow, this week has been one of a kind.  Top is(n't) in?  (TL;DR I have no idea what is going on)

Thorstach really posted at the perfect time.  I知 pretty convinced he痴 from the future

2030 - Thorstache is as commonly used as 'spilling tea' or 'Googling', as in, I just thorstached my exam, surely 100% (but turns out you failed)...

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9029 on: February 25, 2022, 01:31:49 PM »
Wow, this week has been one of a kind.  Top is(n't) in?  (TL;DR I have no idea what is going on)

Thorstach really posted at the perfect time.  I’m pretty convinced he’s from the future

2030 - Thorstache is as commonly used as 'spilling tea' or 'Googling', as in, I just thorstached my exam, surely 100% (but turns out you failed)...
... but in that usage almost certainly in the second person. "Pretty sure they just thorstached their exam." (aka, they finished fast and confidently, but probably read the directions wrongv and still ended up being correct a shocking number of times).

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9030 on: February 26, 2022, 04:41:39 AM »
Wow, this week has been one of a kind.  Top is(n't) in?  (TL;DR I have no idea what is going on)

Thorstach really posted at the perfect time.  I知 pretty convinced he痴 from the future

2030 - Thorstache is as commonly used as 'spilling tea' or 'Googling', as in, I just thorstached my exam, surely 100% (but turns out you failed)...
... but in that usage almost certainly in the second person. "Pretty sure they just thorstached their exam." (aka, they finished fast and confidently, but probably read the directions wrongv and still ended up being correct a shocking number of times).

O ye of little faith! The real meaning of thorstache is that thorium reactors will save the envirnoment, and a stache of thorium is the only good investment left. Selling our futile index funds is only the beginning of wisdom.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9031 on: February 26, 2022, 08:38:46 AM »
Wow, this week has been one of a kind.  Top is(n't) in?  (TL;DR I have no idea what is going on)

Thorstach really posted at the perfect time.  I知 pretty convinced he痴 from the future

2030 - Thorstache is as commonly used as 'spilling tea' or 'Googling', as in, I just thorstached my exam, surely 100% (but turns out you failed)...
... but in that usage almost certainly in the second person. "Pretty sure they just thorstached their exam." (aka, they finished fast and confidently, but probably read the directions wrongv and still ended up being correct a shocking number of times).

O ye of little faith! The real meaning of thorstache is that thorium reactors will save the envirnoment, and a stache of thorium is the only good investment left. Selling our futile index funds is only the beginning of wisdom.

The truth was staring us in the face the whole time!  Now excuse me, I have a large stache of Marvel comic books I need to sell immediately.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9032 on: February 26, 2022, 09:47:02 AM »
O ye of little faith! The real meaning of thorstache is that thorium reactors will save the envirnoment, and a stache of thorium is the only good investment left. Selling our futile index funds is only the beginning of wisdom.

Yet even this path lead only to despair and destitution. For the very property of thorium which enabled our great ecological and economic renaissance -- its widespread availability throughout earth's crust -- arrested its viability as a store of wealth.

And the people lamented.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9033 on: February 26, 2022, 11:04:56 AM »
O ye of little faith! The real meaning of thorstache is that thorium reactors will save the envirnoment, and a stache of thorium is the only good investment left. Selling our futile index funds is only the beginning of wisdom.

Yet even this path lead only to despair and destitution. For the very property of thorium which enabled our great ecological and economic renaissance -- its widespread availability throughout earth's crust -- arrested its viability as a store of wealth.

And the people lamented.
Manhattan?
My great hope has decayed so quickly!

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9034 on: February 26, 2022, 03:22:33 PM »
You know what'll cause a crash?    Russia invades the Ukraine and/or China invades Taiwan.   Otherwise we're in good shape.

Or not.

Oh wait top is in!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9035 on: March 08, 2022, 09:44:05 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

Blender Bender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9036 on: March 08, 2022, 09:54:19 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

More applicable soon could be "Bottom is in".

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9037 on: March 08, 2022, 10:00:32 AM »
Don't hold your breath.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9038 on: March 08, 2022, 10:00:41 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

More applicable soon could be "Bottom is in".
We have a thread for that.

Also "9% higher than a year ago" would be a very bold "bottom is in" call. No, I think the top is in and the fall will only accelerate from here!

Blender Bender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9039 on: March 08, 2022, 10:21:27 AM »
Don't hold your breath.

Not counting much on it. Sitting put this year. Prepping the gun powder.
But such gloom is bullish in a way, well, maybe.

Blender Bender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9040 on: March 08, 2022, 10:32:30 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

More applicable soon could be "Bottom is in".

I need to be more careful what i'm posting. Minutes after i mention that perhaps the bottom is close, the market shoot almost 2%!
LOL

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9041 on: March 08, 2022, 10:50:01 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

More applicable soon could be "Bottom is in".

I need to be more careful what i'm posting. Minutes after i mention that perhaps the bottom is close, the market shoot almost 2%!
LOL
Nope, that just means you are a true disciple of the Thorstasche!   Or since you mentioned the bottom... the Anti-Thorstache!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9042 on: March 08, 2022, 11:42:23 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

More applicable soon could be "Bottom is in".

I need to be more careful what i'm posting. Minutes after i mention that perhaps the bottom is close, the market shoot almost 2%!
LOL

XIV is certainly breaking down

Lotta true believers in this thread.  Besides the fact that the top is in, what makes you think the bottom is far off?

Blender Bender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9043 on: March 08, 2022, 03:44:17 PM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

More applicable soon could be "Bottom is in".

I need to be more careful what i'm posting. Minutes after i mention that perhaps the bottom is close, the market shoot almost 2%!
LOL

XIV is certainly breaking down

Lotta true believers in this thread.  Besides the fact that the top is in, what makes you think the bottom is far off?

I was more saying that the bottom could be had soon. I guess this is what means "bottom is off". English is my forth language, so my comments could be "off" :)

Reynold

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9044 on: March 08, 2022, 03:47:02 PM »
Should I TLH now? Looking for the bottom here... wrong thread?

The bottom is zero.

Unless the market can go negative. Has anyone looked into this?

Maybe the Russian stock market?  Not only is it closed, but you might have to pay someone to take your shares because they run the risk of violating sanctions? 

Say, did Thorstache ever say WHICH market the top was in on?. . .

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9045 on: March 08, 2022, 04:17:32 PM »
I didn't post on this thread since it seemed wrong to make light of our paper losses when people are being killed by the thousands...

Blender Bender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9046 on: March 08, 2022, 04:32:25 PM »
I didn't post on this thread since it seemed wrong to make light of our paper losses when people are being killed by the thousands...

Very true. I have not checked my balance for weeks. There are more important things to do. Also feeling just depressed about the war.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9047 on: March 08, 2022, 06:53:22 PM »
I didn't post on this thread since it seemed wrong to make light of our paper losses when people are being killed by the thousands...

Humor is very important in dark times.   For example, it can build a sense of community and it keeps people from swallowing guns.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9048 on: March 09, 2022, 11:24:25 AM »
How does this thread go over a week without any posts?

Looks like the top was in fact in.

Maybe because all the Russian bots were busy?

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9049 on: March 09, 2022, 12:05:42 PM »
I didn't post on this thread since it seemed wrong to make light of our paper losses when people are being killed by the thousands...

Very true. I have not checked my balance for weeks. There are more important things to do. Also feeling just depressed about the war.

Let's not forget that this is a humor thread. GOAT MOAT anyone?