Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 925505 times)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4950 on: August 14, 2019, 04:36:18 PM »


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4951 on: August 14, 2019, 04:36:35 PM »
That’s right I cheated

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4952 on: August 14, 2019, 04:45:41 PM »
I’ve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

Whoa. 1%. Living on the edge!

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4953 on: August 14, 2019, 04:59:08 PM »
2840 for the s&p
think we have been there about 8 times since the beginning of 2018 either going up or down. guess the top is in.

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4954 on: August 14, 2019, 05:43:11 PM »
This is the last time.

Ever!!!!!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4955 on: August 14, 2019, 05:54:09 PM »
We'll be telling our Grandchildren.. "Once upon a time the S&P500 was at 3025"... Oooooh!..:)

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4956 on: August 14, 2019, 06:14:42 PM »
We'll be telling our Grandchildren.. "Once upon a time the S&P500 was at 3025"... Oooooh!..:)

"Grandpa, you're OLD!"

RWTL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4957 on: August 14, 2019, 06:21:41 PM »
That’s right I cheated

Impressive :)

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4958 on: August 14, 2019, 07:02:54 PM »
I’ve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

I thought we did not have market timers in here, at least none with over 500 posts; surely those guys would be all in with the overall strategy it eventually comes back bigger; hmmm.


well,  I calculate with my so called market timeing of using mobbing averages, something that has been done for decades has me with over 25k of saved capital when the moving average reverses;  so today was not bad to me; the majority here; I imagine noit so much.



aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4959 on: August 15, 2019, 04:00:55 PM »
[something, something, market timing]...using mobbing averages



Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4960 on: August 15, 2019, 04:29:26 PM »
It says here that VBTLX has made a 1 year return of about 8%.

As my bonds equal about 17 years of current spending I'm happy... :)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4961 on: August 15, 2019, 05:18:44 PM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

Say “top” again...

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4962 on: August 16, 2019, 12:22:43 PM »
Next time the "Top Is in", I'm going to take a little meat out of the market.  Time to start getting FIRE positioned.  Having meat in the fire has served me well.  Time for a little JL collins move.

catorbe

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4963 on: August 16, 2019, 12:50:22 PM »
Next time the "Top Is in", I'm going to take a little meat out of the market.  Time to start getting FIRE positioned.  Having meat in the fire has served me well.  Time for a little JL collins move.

You don't want it to mm mmmm... get burned...


Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4965 on: August 16, 2019, 01:46:43 PM »
Next time the "Top Is in", I'm going to take a little meat out of the market.  Time to start getting FIRE positioned.  Having meat in the fire has served me well.  Time for a little JL collins move.

How much is a "little"?

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4966 on: August 16, 2019, 02:01:29 PM »
Next time the "Top Is in", I'm going to take a little meat out of the market.  Time to start getting FIRE positioned.  Having meat in the fire has served me well.  Time for a little JL collins move.

How much is a "little"?

Probably about 5 more years of burn.  10 percent more than the 10 to 15 percent I've cooled in the last 12 months.  About 25 percent seems reasonable, that's 500k or so total.  Should float any recession and then that keeps 1M on high broil.  With another 400K in untouched pension we'll approach 1M with low volatility.  How the hell am I going to spend all that?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4967 on: August 16, 2019, 02:14:46 PM »
Next time the "Top Is in", I'm going to take a little meat out of the market.  Time to start getting FIRE positioned.  Having meat in the fire has served me well.  Time for a little JL collins move.

How much is a "little"?

Probably about 5 more years of burn.  10 percent more than the 10 to 15 percent I've cooled in the last 12 months.  About 25 percent seems reasonable, that's 500k or so total.  Should float any recession and then that keeps 1M on high broil.  With another 400K in untouched pension we'll approach 1M with low volatility.  How the hell am I going to spend all that?

Yeah if your assets far outstrip your expenditures then I think you’ll be fine either way.  Whatever keeps you calm

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4968 on: August 16, 2019, 02:59:26 PM »
@Bateaux, you'll be OMYing it forever.

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4969 on: August 16, 2019, 04:14:12 PM »
Next time the "Top Is in", I'm going to take a little meat out of the market.  Time to start getting FIRE positioned.  Having meat in the fire has served me well.  Time for a little JL collins move.

How much is a "little"?

Probably about 5 more years of burn.  10 percent more than the 10 to 15 percent I've cooled in the last 12 months.  About 25 percent seems reasonable, that's 500k or so total.  Should float any recession and then that keeps 1M on high broil.  With another 400K in untouched pension we'll approach 1M with low volatility.  How the hell am I going to spend all that?

Bateaux is barbecuing $500,000 of...brisket?

Here in Texas, I can understand that. It's the $1 million being "broiled" that concerns me.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4970 on: August 16, 2019, 07:10:56 PM »
Did anybody notice that the 30-day Treasury yield crossed the 30-year Treasury yield? That's been my harbinger of doom for years!!! Top is in!!!!!!!!!!!!1111

It seems like they have a top for everything now!

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4971 on: August 16, 2019, 07:23:13 PM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

Say “top” again...

I dare ya. I double dare ya!

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4972 on: August 16, 2019, 09:07:31 PM »
@Bateaux, you'll be OMYing it forever.

Hopefully my new bicycle will help with that.  My bikepacking rig is just about complete and I've got two weeks of vacation next month.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4973 on: August 17, 2019, 08:17:41 AM »
@Bateaux, you'll be OMYing it forever.

Hopefully my new bicycle will help with that.  My bikepacking rig is just about complete and I've got two weeks of vacation next month.

Hehe.. I too have noticed that ever increasing "outrageous" expenditures have no noticeable impact on the stash.. 6 week trip to Europe, AC/DC TIG welding setup almost on a whim?.. Nope, nothing!

Where does it end?

I might even hire somebody to cut the grass one of these days!...:)

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4974 on: August 19, 2019, 06:18:07 AM »
@Bateaux, you'll be OMYing it forever.

Hopefully my new bicycle will help with that.  My bikepacking rig is just about complete and I've got two weeks of vacation next month.

Hehe.. I too have noticed that ever increasing "outrageous" expenditures have no noticeable impact on the stash.. 6 week trip to Europe, AC/DC TIG welding setup almost on a whim?.. Nope, nothing!

Where does it end?

I might even hire somebody to cut the grass one of these days!...:)

That's my FIRE goal - I hate mowing.

But I also hate paying someone $50 for something I can do.

FIRE@50

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4975 on: August 19, 2019, 08:11:25 AM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

Say “top” again...

I dare ya. I double dare ya!
I triple dog dare ya

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4976 on: August 19, 2019, 10:39:50 AM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

Say “top” again...

I dare ya. I double dare ya!
I triple dog dare ya
Slight breach of etiquette aside, TOP IS IN!

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4977 on: August 19, 2019, 11:13:24 AM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

Say “top” again...

I dare ya. I double dare ya!
I triple dog dare ya
Slight breach of etiquette aside, TOP IS IN!

A Christmas Story reference top is in!


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4979 on: August 19, 2019, 08:18:15 PM »
TOP

I just needed to say something to get in on the centennial anniversary page ;)

Oh wait I was already there... just like the top...
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 08:20:09 PM by Radagast »

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4980 on: August 19, 2019, 11:54:50 PM »
100! At last, we have arrived at... The Big Top!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4981 on: August 20, 2019, 07:58:22 AM »
Epstein top is in

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4982 on: August 20, 2019, 09:31:36 AM »
100! At last, we have arrived at... The Big Top!

Unlike the market, this thread will only continue to go up.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4983 on: August 20, 2019, 11:13:08 AM »
100! At last, we have arrived at... The Big Top!

Pee Wee Top is in!


Jon Bon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4984 on: August 21, 2019, 11:38:28 AM »
 .

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4985 on: August 21, 2019, 03:29:30 PM »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4986 on: August 21, 2019, 10:33:47 PM »

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4987 on: August 23, 2019, 02:04:01 PM »
.

"top is in"

seriously though, might actually make new highs before the year is out. if you look at typical mkt after a yield curve inversion, it declines for a month on average ad then rallies for 3 months on average before a contraction or recession' we'll see; but past 4 days dashed today; glad I've largely been out since 2990 s+p

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4988 on: August 23, 2019, 02:57:09 PM »
.

"top is in"

seriously though, might actually make new highs before the year is out. if you look at typical mkt after a yield curve inversion, it declines for a month on average ad then rallies for 3 months on average before a contraction or recession' we'll see; but past 4 days dashed today; glad I've largely been out since 2990 s+p

Hah.. Unless Twitter goes down for a solid month I think 3025 will never be seen again.. Ever..;)

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4989 on: August 23, 2019, 10:00:19 PM »
Exflyboy, you must have apprenticed at the feet of the mighty Thorstach. You are a genius. Twitter crash! OF COURSE it will be epic!

The doom-filled future awaits.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4990 on: August 24, 2019, 12:03:32 AM »
Exflyboy, you must have apprenticed at the feet of the mighty Thorstach. You are a genius. Twitter crash! OF COURSE it will be epic!

The doom-filled future awaits.

Unless Friendster goes down for a solid year, I don’t think we will ever recover from the Great Recession

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4991 on: August 24, 2019, 09:09:14 AM »
.

"top is in"

seriously though, might actually make new highs before the year is out. if you look at typical mkt after a yield curve inversion, it declines for a month on average ad then rallies for 3 months on average before a contraction or recession' we'll see; but past 4 days dashed today; glad I've largely been out since 2990 s+p

Hah.. Unless Twitter goes down for a solid month I think 3025 will never be seen again.. Ever..;)

Sigh. 4 months of net worth progress wiped out by another Trump Tariff Temper Tantrum Tweet (The Tx5). Why didn't I sell when the top was in! It's so obvious now!

freedomfightergal

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4992 on: August 24, 2019, 12:50:00 PM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..


VTI now at $145.09, my Top still stands!  Wishing I sold more now...

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4993 on: August 24, 2019, 12:53:01 PM »
Exflyboy, you must have apprenticed at the feet of the mighty Thorstach. You are a genius. Twitter crash! OF COURSE it will be epic!

The doom-filled future awaits.

Unless Friendster goes down for a solid year, I don’t think we will ever recover from the Great Recession

Friendster, puh.  All the cool kids use MySpace.  Get with it!

Rubyvroom

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4994 on: August 25, 2019, 03:28:36 PM »
I'm fairly certain the next page of this thread will be 49.

Hmm.... since we are already on page 50?  Are you counting on a mass-deletion of posts?

Thread top is in! It's all downhill from here folks.



It only took 536 days for this thread to double in value. That's a clear indication that we're at the top. Page 99 is right around the corner. I'm sure of it this time.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4995 on: August 26, 2019, 02:15:23 PM »
"Record $89.2 billion of student loans in default at the end of June. Of $1.48 trillion outstanding, 11%, or $160 billion,  at least 90 days behind on repayments—& true rate is likely double that, because only half the loans are currently in repayment"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/soaring-student-debt-opens-door-to-relief-scams-11566826805?mod=hp_lead_pos5


kenmoremmm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4996 on: August 26, 2019, 02:33:54 PM »
^ all hail

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4997 on: August 27, 2019, 08:48:12 AM »
thorstach he comes!

I haven't bothered trying to rescale that graph, but isn't the percentage of defaults relatively stable?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4998 on: August 27, 2019, 11:13:33 AM »
thorstach he comes!

I haven't bothered trying to rescale that graph, but isn't the percentage of defaults relatively stable?

Sure but the “true rate” is at least double and more likely quadruple according to my dog

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4999 on: August 27, 2019, 12:16:06 PM »
Does this mean the Top is in for student loans?