Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 64831 times)

thorstach

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Top is in
« on: April 11, 2017, 08:26:07 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

L.A.S.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2017, 08:41:45 AM »
What does this have to do with anything?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2017, 11:02:34 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

mrpercentage, is that you?

powskier

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2017, 11:12:44 AM »
The tea leaf pattern was auspicious this morning. It clearly means that vital things must be done in a certain way at a certain time and before another time.
 Also, the moon.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2017, 04:50:43 PM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

mrpercentage, is that you?

LOL

checkedoutat39

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2017, 09:10:30 PM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15

The old saying from the trading floor is you sell vol when it's at 15 and buy it when it's at 20.

farfromfire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2017, 06:27:49 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.
Are you putting your money where your mouth is?

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2017, 01:55:05 PM »
And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 02:06:12 PM by thorstach »

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2017, 02:06:43 PM »
You should add your prediction to this thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

farfromfire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2017, 02:15:59 PM »
And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."
Are you putting your money where your mouth is? How so?

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2017, 02:26:00 PM »
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Oh wait, that was just a little rain this morning. Don't sell anything and get back to living your life.
"It'll be great!"

Tonyahu

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2017, 02:45:43 PM »
We avoid noise in these parts, fellow.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2017, 11:10:21 AM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2017, 11:29:30 AM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

farfromfire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2017, 12:16:01 PM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
VIX is up, XIV is broken up, VXX is breaking out... Please, I need more of your detailed analysis of random indices! What about VXZ? UUP?

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2017, 12:22:47 PM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
VIX is up, XIV is broken up, VXX is breaking out... Please, I need more of your detailed analysis of random indices! What about VXZ? UUP?

For the VIX challenged, SPY broke it's uptrend support:


Heroes821

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2017, 12:24:45 PM »
I love this thread, it's like watching a CNN ticker of nonsense.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2017, 12:31:58 PM »
It's modern day phrenology.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

farfromfire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2017, 12:40:57 PM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
VIX is up, XIV is broken up, VXX is breaking out... Please, I need more of your detailed analysis of random indices! What about VXZ? UUP?

For the VIX challenged, SPY broke it's uptrend support:
I have no idea what that sentence means. Do you?

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2017, 01:28:26 PM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2017, 02:26:51 PM »
nice to meet you thorstach.   Are you shorting?  If not, why not?

Most on this board prefer to invest for the long term and don't really follow short term movements very much, preferring to buy and hold with periodic asset rebalancing.

You might do okay from speculating, but most of the new arriving investment gurus on this forum have disappeared with their tales between their legs over the years.


Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2017, 02:28:32 PM »
RED DOW! Bahahahahaha
FIRE, Take Two.

Scortius

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2017, 02:41:44 PM »
Are you sure, my model(TM) suggests continued upward linear growth.  Just look, the chart makes it clear, and you know it has to be true because there's a chart with lines on it.

checkedoutat39

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2017, 02:44:56 PM »
Any Elliott Wavers here? Is this latest move a 2, a 4 or an A?

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2017, 03:02:30 PM »
Fibbonachie 50 level broken and kondratieff winter due.  Also, one of those death cross thingies.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2017, 03:11:44 PM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.

Oh no, go ahead and make the call right now using all of these facts and analysis.  We'll still give you full credit.  Promise!
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2017, 03:56:03 PM »
Fibbonachie 50 level broken and kondratieff winter due.  Also, one of those death cross thingies.

Don't forget the Bennett-Gurdjieff systematics.

Or the magic 8-ball.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2017, 04:35:45 PM »
Appreciate your insight and comments thorstach. But for buy and hold investors who have a long time horizon before ever needing to "sell' (aside from rebalancing), the "top" as you call it, has little to no meaning for our investing behaviors. It could be the "top," middle, or "bottom" and I would still faithfully follow my investing policy statement. If you are correct, and I admit, you may be right about this, it doesn't change a thing for me, and likely, many others here on this board. But together, we will find out if you are correct, so grab a basket of popcorn. This could get interesting.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2017, 04:48:12 PM »
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

For those who don't understand VIX index thingies or a simple chart i'll simplify it further. This market was pumped up by the Fed's QE, the fact that it's over and they now have to unwind their trillions is enough of a reason for valuations to come back down to earth. Is there a precedent to backtest against for a market on QE steroids and the aftermath ? Who will save the day next time there's a 50% drop with interest rates near 0?

Laserjet3051

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2017, 05:12:06 PM »
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

For those who don't understand VIX index thingies or a simple chart i'll simplify it further. This market was pumped up by the Fed's QE, the fact that it's over and they now have to unwind their trillions is enough of a reason for valuations to come back down to earth. Is there a precedent to backtest against for a market on QE steroids and the aftermath ? Who will save the day next time there's a 50% drop with interest rates near 0?

Good points Thorstache. I am very familiar with what VIX tracks and the impact of years of QE on equity valuations, not to mention the fed beginning to unwind all of the toxic assets still on their balance sheet. Agreed, that for folks with substantial cash on the sidelines, a lump sum investment at the peak may not yield as high a return as DCA into the market as valuations plummet. There are great discussions about this specific scenario over at bogleheads where the overwhelming consensus was still to not try and time entry/re-entry in with new dollars. This was empirically demonstrated using backtesting.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2017, 05:22:14 PM »
I do love these market timing threads for their entertainment value. :)

steveo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2017, 06:07:06 PM »
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.

It's just squiggles on a chart to me. What will be interesting is where the market will be in 3 months and greater from now. I've seen plenty of people come up with squiggles on charts and their predictions  typically don't work out that well.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2017, 06:37:56 PM »
I think we're all failing to overlook something here, and that is:

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2751

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2017, 10:47:53 PM »
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

For those who don't understand VIX index thingies or a simple chart i'll simplify it further. This market was pumped up by the Fed's QE, the fact that it's over and they now have to unwind their trillions is enough of a reason for valuations to come back down to earth. Is there a precedent to backtest against for a market on QE steroids and the aftermath ? Who will save the day next time there's a 50% drop with interest rates near 0?

But you're probably not as smart as you think you are, and that's true independent of what the market does tomorrow. I understand VIX index thingies thoroughly, but it doesn't matter one flying fck; the market will do what it does and in my opinion technical analysis is useless in deciphering it. To your more macro questions, I predict the Fed will unwind QE in a slow, predictable, and telegraphed manner. If you think you can beat the moneyed crowds to the punch, have at it.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2017, 10:50:05 PM by aspiringnomad »

Dropbear

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2017, 12:49:03 AM »
There are great discussions about this specific scenario over at bogleheads where the overwhelming consensus was still to not try and time entry/re-entry in with new dollars. This was empirically demonstrated using backtesting.

Could you post a link, please?  I had a look for the thread, but didn't have enough info to go with in order to find it...

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2017, 01:03:49 AM »
I love these threads.  Doom & gloom predictions used to spook me, but there've been so many of them that I've become inoculated. 
Frugalite in training.

Gumption

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2017, 08:28:59 AM »
Markets gonna do what its going to do. Personally, I am working toward ~5 yr FIRE, so bring on that crash now I guess.

Heckler

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2017, 09:40:18 AM »
I am happy if my 28% US allocation comes down to its 25% intended allocation without me selling with trading fees.  I am having trouble keeping up buying bonds to mainain my 25% bonds allocation, even though I've bought $30k bonds in Q1-17

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #38 on: April 14, 2017, 04:31:07 PM »
I think we're all failing to overlook something here, and that is:

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2751

^Hilarious!

dixonge

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2017, 08:12:40 PM »
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

Are you looking for advice for yourself or someone you know? Because unpaid advice is worth every penny you spend on it.

But seriously, most people here view charts and patterns as a fool's game.

Having said that, as mentioned in another thread, Bill Gross predicted a very meager market after the bottom in 2009. So far he was massively wrong, and anyone following his advice and making very conservative moves missed out on a major bull run that has lasted eight years! But hey, he was only managing $270 Billion at the time. I'm sure your charts would have steered you clear of that bad advice...
humanist - internationalist - ex-fundamentalist - ex-conservative

webguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2017, 10:20:28 PM »
Oh yes the support for the ABC is no longer equal to the XYZ and the LMNOP score is too high so the blah blah blah...

This guy has been watching too much financial news. Try getting outside once in a while!

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #41 on: April 15, 2017, 12:54:10 AM »
Thorstach,  it can be scary to get into the market.

Why not decide on your asset allocation and just drip feed into the market over a year, and you will buy cheap into your crash.

Please do not go 100% cash,  that is likely to be a duff idea.

We don't always recommend people lump sum here.  The data show that lump sum does better than DCA 70% of the time, so DCA will do better 30% of the time.  Nobody knows when either strategy will outperform, but both are good options.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #42 on: April 17, 2017, 01:27:44 PM »
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #43 on: April 17, 2017, 01:40:43 PM »
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?



My cousin's best friend's brother once served Warren Buffet a coke at McDonald's and they hooked me up with this ^^^ financial scoop. Needless to say I sold my stocks and bough gold, ammo and sardines - lots of them. Good luck to us all! :(

Shade00

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #44 on: April 17, 2017, 01:48:40 PM »
I'm just going to keep buying, whether the markets go up or down. If the markets go down, I don't lose my shares, they just go down in value for a short while. If the markets go up, well, good. I get to FIRE more quickly. I did recently decide to start buying some international funds, though, since a little diversification is healthy and international stocks seem cheap right now.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #45 on: April 24, 2017, 09:56:53 AM »
Buddy you still around? VIX dropped over 20% earlier today, hope you didn't get margin-called.

WildJager

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #46 on: April 24, 2017, 11:12:22 AM »
Buddy you still around? VIX dropped over 20% earlier today, hope you didn't get margin-called.

Of course not.  There's a reason why actively managed funds that are still around often seem to outperform the market.  Survivorship bias.  The losers fade into obscurity.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #47 on: April 24, 2017, 11:27:38 AM »
When you try to time the market, you are competing against full time professionally managed funds, with some of the best minds (and algorithms!) in the world.  You're gonna lose.

On the other hand, indexing means that those smart people actually work for you.  When the market goes up, they win, but so do you.

PS, I'm leaving out hedging, that's a whole other topic.
Frugalite in training.

FLBiker

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #48 on: April 24, 2017, 02:20:30 PM »
It's modern day phrenology.

Excellent analogy!

Fishfindr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #49 on: April 24, 2017, 02:35:18 PM »
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?


I guess we all need to conform to some standard of dialogue on this board. Don't offer opinions that might be contrary to the belief of the masses or face the consequences!