Top is in

[brooklynguy]

Where is thorstach?

You have to wait for his next materialization, which follows a rigid schedule dictated by the properties of the chrono-synclastic infundibulum he entered before starting this thread.  Presumably, the messages he carries, which might appear to be bunk from our current perspective, will make sense to us once enough of the future has become the past in our own linear time scale.

[dougules]

Nice!

[DarkandStormy]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/well-never-stop-hearing-people-say-stock-market-bubble-151740402.html

But in a world in which “The Big Short” is nominated for Oscars and everyone wants to say they too saw that trade coming, saying that we’re probably not going to see a market crash anytime soon can range from coming off naïve, to uncool, to downright ignorant depending on the critic.

And either way, it’s simply not as good of a story.

Which is why we’ll never stop hearing proposed answers to the question of whether this is the top.

[fattest_foot]

And the sad realization is that all of those people duped into the "we saw it coming" mindset will end up likely missing out on massive gains. They probably already have, actually.

[Mr Mark]

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Maybe he was planning to retire quietly according to the 4% rule and got enligthed by Runewell's posts?

You made me smile with this one. Well played sir.

[GenXbiker]

The Dow has fallen off after hitting a new high earlier.   Is the top in?

[MrGreen]

I have very much enjoyed this thread. The fact that the market has hit new high after new high after new high after new high after new high after new high has simply made it that much more humorous. It certainly serves as a fantastic example of why market timing is bad.

[thorstach]

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

[DarkandStormy]

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

Trollers gonna troll.

[Retire-Canada]

You can't just accept it.

[sol]

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

By my count, SPY has put in ten new tops over the past 30 days.

So one third of trading days are new tops, and the other two thirds of days are immediately after a new top, so the top is in each of those days too?

[wienerdog]

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

I am confused now.  Which top is still in?

[rob in cal]

  I still remember back a few years when the dow was at about 13,000 thinking it was too high and a correction like in 2008 was on the way.  then when it was at 17,000 I was sure it was close to a top.  Fortunately ( I think) I didn't stop putting money into the market in spite of my cogent market analysis.

[frugledoc]

North Korea vs Donald Trump = Top is Definitely in.

This is a leading indicator called the psychopathic dictator death cross and usually means a 37% market decline is imminent.

[Clean Shaven]

North Korea vs Donald Trump = Top is Definitely in.

This is a leading indicator called the psychopathic dictator death cross and usually means a 37% market decline is imminent.

You know, if we go the way that Alderaan did, the top is definitely in.

[OurTown]

Alderaan is peaceful, we have no weapons of any kind.

[MrDelane]

I'm going to start making my own predictions, and I predict I will be right many more times than Thorstach.

My prediction:  Thorstach will say that the top is in.

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

If only I could predict the market as easily as I can predict market timers.

[Exflyboy]

I predict the goon in Chief will say something stupid.. again!

[Maenad]

I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

[dougules]

North Korea vs Donald Trump = Top is Definitely in.

This is a leading indicator called the psychopathic dictator death cross and usually means a 37% market decline is imminent.

You know, if we go the way that Alderaan did, the top is definitely in.

You just need more diversification.  Are there any low cost inter-planetary mutual funds out there?

[steveo]

I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

There are a couple of points here. There are signs but there are always signs. Just because someone predicted something right at a certain point in time that doesn't mean that he always gets those types of predictions right. It could just be luck. Yes they are smart and yes they were right but how many times have they been wrong.

I think it's best to look at really really out of whack scenarios but even then you have to be careful.

A good book to read is the book regarding long term capital managements failure. These guys were brilliant. They saw a gap in the market and made money for a long time. They also lost it all.

I think you need to be really really careful when it comes to predicting the markets. A healthy dose of humility can do a lot for you.

I actually trade foreign currencies but I trade an account with about $1000 in it. My last trade was at least a year ago and I got it so wrong. The market is now coming back and I have a profit on that position (short USD). Picking markets consistently is a mugs game. You see things that aren't there. It's all about timing as well. You get the timing wrong and you can really stuff yourself.

When it comes to investing over the really long term and utilising a rational asset allocation and being humble you can come out miles ahead. My parents have a lot of money and they've paid massive dollars to financial advisors who are hopeless. They've just had time in the market on their side.

[DarkandStormy]

Is it possible the 8/8 call of the top will turn out to be correct?

[JAYSLOL]

LOL, anything is possible.  A couple down days in a row is nothing, I'll bet markets are at a new top by sometime next week.  And if I'm wrong, I was wrong once, thorstach on the other hand...

[DarkandStormy]

LOL, anything is possible.  A couple down days in a row is nothing, I'll bet markets are at a new top by sometime next week.  And if I'm wrong, I was wrong once, thorstach on the other hand...

Headlines seem to indicate it's based on this North Korea/Trump spat, but who knows.  PPI was weaker than expected, CPI out tomorrow.  Job market is strong, GDP growth is OK, not great.  We'll see.

[JAYSLOL]

LOL, anything is possible.  A couple down days in a row is nothing, I'll bet markets are at a new top by sometime next week.  And if I'm wrong, I was wrong once, thorstach on the other hand...

Headlines seem to indicate it's based on this North Korea/Trump spat, but who knows.  PPI was weaker than expected, CPI out tomorrow.  Job market is strong, GDP growth is OK, not great.  We'll see.

Only way that materializes into a market correction is if there's actually a conflict started.  N Korea doesn't want this.  The US doesn't want this.  Hopefully the GOP finds a way to shut Trumps big stupid mouth so we can keep living our lives in peace.

[OurTown]

Is it possible the 8/8 call of the top will turn out to be correct?

I think the highest call will be the correct one.

[afuera]

Is it possible the 8/8 call of the top will turn out to be correct?

I successfully called the top. I am the new mega-investor genius. Please everyone disregard* thorstache and only listen to me for all your future investing decisions.

Bonus free mega-genius investor advice for today: Stocks are on sale, buy them :). You are welcome, plebs.

*also disregard the fact that all I did was look at S&P, notice it was the highest its ever been (for that 30min period at least) and then say it.

[dividendman]

Top is in guys. Of course I FIRE (tomorrow) a day after the top is in.

Damn top being in.

[TomTX]

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

I am confused now.  Which top is still in?

I have started to wonder if it's a BDSM thing, isn't topping a term used there? The top being 'in' at this frequency would thereby be explained.

The stock market explanation has worn SO thin at this point....

[Mr Mark]

I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

[thorstach]

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

[Kaspian]

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

Well, you could listen to this guy...

Lance Roberts
Long/short equity, investment advisor, portfolio strategy, macro

Technically Speaking: Maybe You Should 'Sell In May'
May 18, 2016

Breaking Markets - The Bear Awakens
Jan. 18, 2016

Breaking Markets - Sell Signals Flash
Jan. 10, 2016

So Goes January, So Goes The Year
Jan. 5, 2016

Previous Warnings Come To Fruition
Aug. 25, 2015

The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
Apr. 30, 2015

Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History
Apr. 28, 2015

...Or not.  I think I'll stick to ummm... Not.

[smedleyb]

I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

Trump repeatedly referencing the record high stock market as some kind of validation of his presidency was always going to end badly.  Even Obama was never that foolish to make the connection, and he bought the market at the low and watched it triple.  Trump is buying in at the high, and gloating about it.  Quick 15% haircut immanent, IMO. 

[dividendman]

I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

Trump repeatedly referencing the record high stock market as some kind of validation of his presidency was always going to end badly.  Even Obama was never that foolish to make the connection, and he bought the market at the low and watched it triple.  Trump is buying in at the high, and gloating about it.  Quick 15% haircut immanent, IMO.

I actually think the rich/educated republicans sticking with trump will ditch him in a heartbeat if his shenanigans cause a 20%+ drop in the market. Right now they're all praying that some corporate tax cut will still come to fruition even though that's looking less and less likely.

[Exflyboy]

Sad thing is the top probably is in now.. but pullback are healthy so nothing to see here.

[Clean Shaven]

So, what's it mean if the top is "out?" 

Is it like the hokey-pokey?  You put the left one in, you put the right one out...   ?

[Tyson]

Sad thing is the top probably is in now.. but pullback are healthy so nothing to see here.

Every "top" is only temporary.  The market always goes up, even if there's occasional dips.  But I know that you already know this :)

[TomTX]

Sad thing is the top probably is in now.. but pullback are healthy so nothing to see here.

If we have a really good crash, I'll get off my arse and do something more useful with all this home equity...

:D

[powskier]

See? there was a pullback, so it WAS the top. Quick, sell everything before everyone else does and then wait for the bottom.

The bottom will be announced in the "The bottom is in" thread.

[JohnSteed]

I have very much enjoyed this thread. The fact that the market has hit new high after new high after new high after new high after new high after new high has simply made it that much more humorous. It certainly serves as a fantastic example of why market timing is bad.

How can anyone conclude that market timing is bad, just because the stock market went up for certain period of time.  Any market timer might very well have been in the market during those times.  What about the times when the market went down?  Those were the times when buy and hold let you down. 

[JAYSLOL]

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

If the top is really in this time, congrats on getting lucky after 4 months of calling every top.  Also, feel free to let us know what your doing about it anytime now. 

[marty998]

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

If the top is really in this time, congrats on getting lucky after 4 months of calling every top.  Also, feel free to let us know what your doing about it anytime now.

No need to be vindictive about it. Discuss the link, don't play the man.

[dividendman]

I sincerely hope that everyone knows that since there is no definition of "top is in" that any pull-back from a market high can be looked at as a "top is in" moment.

In the last few posts people seem to think that "top is in" and they might be serious about.... it's a meaningless statement.

[JAYSLOL]

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

If the top is really in this time, congrats on getting lucky after 4 months of calling every top.  Also, feel free to let us know what your doing about it anytime now.

No need to be vindictive about it. Discuss the link, don't play the man.

That was my sincerest congratulations

[aspiringnomad]

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

1) Why are you sharing this market-moving info?! Good god man, keep it to yourself and make more money with it.

2) The author's thesis appears to be that you can't get back time. I wholeheartedly agree. Not much else to say about it unless he is also hinting that he has a time machine. Or maybe you do, thorstach? If so, go back in time and hold off on this post until you have an accurate call, then let's both go get that damn sports almanac. I'll even sell my stocks to fund the bets and plutonium.

[Mr Mark]

I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

As the boys in the Big Short almost found out, the market can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent betting against it.

[DavidAnnArbor]

I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

As the boys in the Big Short almost found out, the market can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent betting against it.

 Yes I recall in the movie that the investors were getting cold feet regarding the call that the subprime mortgage market was a bubble about to burst.

[smedleyb]

I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

Trump repeatedly referencing the record high stock market as some kind of validation of his presidency was always going to end badly.  Even Obama was never that foolish to make the connection, and he bought the market at the low and watched it triple.  Trump is buying in at the high, and gloating about it.  Quick 15% haircut immanent, IMO.

I actually think the rich/educated republicans sticking with trump will ditch him in a heartbeat if his shenanigans cause a 20%+ drop in the market. Right now they're all praying that some corporate tax cut will still come to fruition even though that's looking less and less likely.

The thing is, Trump didn't cause the last 20% rise, nor will he be responsible for the the next 20% drop (unless he does something unpredictably crazy like a nuclear strike on North Korea).  He's arriving on the scene after an unrelenting 8 1/2 year bull market that has nearly quadrupled off the low.  I don't try to pick tops or bottoms, but clearly we're much closer to the former than the latter based on time and price.  Trump is chaining himself the markets in a way Obama never did.  Like a fool, he's buying near the top and gloating about his amazing investment acumen, not realizing he's becoming a slave to momentum, and will surely suffer yet more humiliation when markets invariably turn.

Yes, it might be up, up and away from here.  The market might double and Trump can claim greatness.  Or -- and this is the way I'm personally betting -- a serious market gut check is immanent.  IMO, Trump's gloating is just another symptom of a bull market that's gotten far too complacent.  He's the ultimate jinx. 

[GenXbiker]

I'm going to keep riding the Trump bull run with the money I've already got invested, which is about 80%.  The question is when to move more of my cash to stocks.  I like to buy on the dips and am looking for a good sale.

[OurTown]

The market operates independently of politics, imo.

If you could predict the top, that would be great.  Even better if you could predict the bottom, then you could buy like a mofo.