Top is in

[tpac]

"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

Please let me know when the stretch of all-new-tops will resume, and I'll get back in.

P.S.  Thorstache, you're a total jerk for not calling the high Friday so I could get out and avoid these losses!

P.S.S.  My international stocks are at an all-time high, so I'm not sure what to do about that.  Have we been calling international tops, too?  Le top?

I'll gamble the international top won't come until 2030. The international top is... not in?

[Radagast]

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

+3 Tops

[Clean Shaven]

+3 Tops

[Mr. Boh]

"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

Some interesting points.
The majority of my portfolio remains 'mindless' index funds. My own 'thoughtfully-chosen' investments have outperformed S&P by a few %, not hugely.

Over a longer term it will be interesting if there is a return to mean for market cap vs. GDP and a number of the other 'stretched' valuation indicators. I think it is 'different this time' to an extent due to the global CB activity including artificially low interest rates and equity/debt purchases....

This is interesting. The main question I have concerns the percentage of corporate earnings from outside the US. The five biggest companies in the market are Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon and Google (counting both GOOG and GOOGL). These companies earn a large portion of their revenues outside of the US. It doesn't completely make sense to me to compare their market cap only to US GDP.

Hopefully Mr. Buffet will chime in to clear this up for me.

[Optimiser]

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

+3 Tops

+4 Tops

[GuitarStv]

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

+3 Tops

+4 Tops

DIE FIVE TOPS, DIE DIE DIE!    :P

[techwiz]

Killing the 5 Tops



GuitarStv just beat me to posting this before me....

[Maenad]

"His tattoo says 'Die Bart, Die'!"

"No no no, it's German for 'The Bart, The'!"

[DS]

Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

[aspiringnomad]

Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

Panning is for suckers. Just moved all my money into shovels (i.e., NVidia).

[BTDretire]

 I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

[dougules]

Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that. 

[Clean Shaven]

Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that.

This made me google for the answer - I thought Hawaii was further west.  I'm wrong.  The Aleutians are further west than Hawaii, but Hawaii is further west than mainland Alaska.

Either way...  hope your wagon floats!

[OurTown]

S&P is at 2585. 

Where have you gone, Thorstache?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wu wu wu.

[Clean Shaven]

S&P is at 2585. 

Where have you gone, Thorstache?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wu wu wu.

Heavy nowadays
A forsaken Thorstach lost
in spite of the top

https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/

[DarkandStormy]

I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

[Stache-O-Lantern]

Heavy nowadays
A forsaken Thorstach lost
in spite of the top

https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/

As market soars on
Thorstache is not demure, but,
Shouts, the top is in!

[BTDretire]

I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

[Tyson]

I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

Stop ruining our pessimism with your facts!

[DarkandStormy]

I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

'14 saw a dip in Sept/Oct (so did 2012)
'10 saw a dip more in August
Not really any pre-election dips in 2006

[BTDretire]

I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

'14 saw a dip in Sept/Oct (so did 2012)
'10 saw a dip more in August
Not really any pre-election dips in 2006

Using the S&P, 2006 had a 3.5% dip from Jan 1 to June 13, and a 7.7% dip from market peak to trough.
 But, I think my writer was not telling the whole truth, it was more of a "hole truth" :-)
 Am I the first to coin the "hole truth" as the truth with some holes in it?
Two pages into google and I didn't find it.

[Retire-Canada]

[Clean Shaven]

Uncertain today
Has Thorstach become Negan?
Or he's just batty

[the_gastropod]

I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. And I need all of you to stop what you're doing, and listen....

TOP IS IN

[OurTown]

Oh good, I was worried for a minute.

[Clean Shaven]

[OurTown]

I need to make an arbitrary and capricious post just to get my count up to 500 and get another square.  This seems to be the right thread to do that. 

Oh, and top is in.

[Optimiser]

I need to make an arbitrary and capricious post just to get my count up to 500 and get another square.  This seems to be the right thread to do that. 

Oh, and top is in.

Oh, that's what those squares are!

Also, the top appears to have come in a few hours ago. I wish someone would have pointed it out at the time and saved me from the .3% drop.

[OurTown]

They look like "Chiclets."

[solon]

Saw this on Facebook. Reminded me of this thread.

[Cheddar Stacker]

Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that.

This made me google for the answer - I thought Hawaii was further west.  I'm wrong.  The Aleutians are further west than Hawaii, but Hawaii is further west than mainland Alaska.

Either way...  hope your wagon floats!

Fun trivia lesson for the day. Hawaii is the southern most state in the US. Alaska is furthest North, West, and East as it crosses the international date line.

Oh, and the top is in.

[Clean Shaven]

Also, the top appears to have come in a few hours ago. I wish someone would have pointed it out at the time and saved me from the .3% drop.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[secondcor521]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but "Top of the Muffin to Ya!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHtWEH0euh4

[solon]

Man, it'd be fun to hit 2600 this week.

[aboatguy]

2594.38 @ closing today.....   IMO top is not in......

Where's 2600????

[sol]

I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

April 11 close: 2353.78.
Today's close: 2594.38.
Percent return over past 211 days of this thread's existence: 10.22%

[Tyson]

I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

April 11 close: 2353.78.
Today's close: 2594.38.
Percent return over past 211 days of this thread's existence: 10.22%

For someone like you or I, if we had been "calling the top", this type of data might make us pause and maybe reconsider our initial prediction/assumption.  But for many, many people the opposite is the case.  For them, their reasoning goes something along the lines of:

"Hmm, well the stock market was already overpriced at 2353.78 when I started this thread, and now it's all the way up to 2594.38, so now it's REALLY REALLY overpriced and TOP IS IN!"

Hahaha. 

[DavidAnnArbor]

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

Comedy

[JAYSLOL]

I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

Its means..

[ILikeDividends]

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

I think it proves pretty conclusively that the OP is not a broken clock; otherwise, he'd at least be right twice a day.

[Retire-Canada]

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?

Top is in?

[C-note]

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.

[ILikeDividends]

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.

Don't confuse me with logic.

[BTDretire]

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.

 Accuracy is 100%.
You can have multiple tops!

[nereo]

I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

.... I <3 data!~
conclusion: poor (and potentially negative) correlation between thortstach's calling the top and future market performance. To analyze more completely we'd have to decide what's a reasonable temporal duration following each prediction of "the top".  I suggest 1 week, though 1 month could also be appropriate. 
SP500 becomes in teh unput variable and % change (to standardize the response) over our given time interval becomes the response variable.  Date of prediction then drops out entirely and we can run a simple regression.

[anisotropy]

Minions,

Darkness gathers and the storm draws near, come closer and heed my call.

When the light shines upon our way, let us be glad and thankful. The current goldilocks environment will continue to bring us great joy and pride, for the party has only just begun. Oh, we will ascend above the tops of the clouds, scale the utmost heights of Mount Zaphon, and sit enthroned like the most high.

Do not celebrate, lest we forget, the source of all lights is also the fountain of darkness, and the beast stirs in the shadows. Aggregated hours has rebounded, wages will follow. Housing boom has accelerated, not only in the land of the free, but also in the land of the rising sun, which hadn't happened in many many moons. In a euphoric haze many have thrown caution and reason into the winds; adorned themselves in glitters, willingly drank from the Lethe and marched ever closer towards Phlegethon. Yes minions, I speak of the land of bubbles, where dreams and hopes go to die; the market as a whole might have already crossed the line (cant tell, need q4 data)!

Be vigilant and hold strong, many (failed) timers sold early so we could make the gains at their expense, do not let their losses be in vain. Our thoughts and prayers are with them, may they see the errors in their ways and hold our bags when the time comes.

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

[JAYSLOL]

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

That can only mean the top is truely in, if he calls it, he jinxes it and the market goes up to new highs, if he stays silent, the market must be about to tank

[frugalnacho]

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

That can only mean the top is truely in, if he calls it, he jinxes it and the market goes up to new highs, if he stays silent, the market must be about to tank

He's the S&P groundhog

[anisotropy]

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

That can only mean the top is truely in, if he calls it, he jinxes it and the market goes up to new highs, if he stays silent, the market must be about to tank

well it's certainly possible. even though all indicators appear quite positive right now, i will concede that my method would not have saved me from the crashes of 2011 and 1998. best of luck (to us of course).

[Exflyboy]

I think this might be it!