Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 128031 times)

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1100 on: October 27, 2017, 06:08:04 PM »
Top is in

So, basically, thorstach is the stimulus package!

itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1101 on: October 27, 2017, 09:28:41 PM »
Top is in

So, basically, thorstach is the stimulus package!

Indeed, however, one day he/ she/ they will stop calling the top, they will go 100% equity with max leveraged margin loans..... and then......

.....then....

Well who the frig knows, the market might keep climbing.

Best just not try and time the market. Monthly salary this week will be deployed as per normal.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1102 on: October 30, 2017, 10:34:12 AM »
New top for TSX, haven't been able to say that for a long while

acroy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1103 on: October 31, 2017, 12:06:06 PM »
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

Some interesting points.
The majority of my portfolio remains 'mindless' index funds. My own 'thoughtfully-chosen' investments have outperformed S&P by a few %, not hugely.

Over a longer term it will be interesting if there is a return to mean for market cap vs. GDP and a number of the other 'stretched' valuation indicators. I think it is 'different this time' to an extent due to the global CB activity including artificially low interest rates and equity/debt purchases....
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Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1104 on: October 31, 2017, 12:18:27 PM »
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

Please let me know when the stretch of all-new-tops will resume, and I'll get back in.

P.S.  Thorstache, you're a total jerk for not calling the high Friday so I could get out and avoid these losses!

P.S.S.  My international stocks are at an all-time high, so I'm not sure what to do about that.  Have we been calling international tops, too?  Le top?


tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1105 on: October 31, 2017, 12:45:24 PM »
I think it is 'different this time'....

It's not.
Frugalite in training.

tpac

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1106 on: November 01, 2017, 01:56:11 AM »
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

Please let me know when the stretch of all-new-tops will resume, and I'll get back in.

P.S.  Thorstache, you're a total jerk for not calling the high Friday so I could get out and avoid these losses!

P.S.S.  My international stocks are at an all-time high, so I'm not sure what to do about that.  Have we been calling international tops, too?  Le top?

I'll gamble the international top won't come until 2030. The international top is... not in?

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1107 on: November 01, 2017, 02:11:38 PM »
I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.
+3 Tops

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1108 on: November 01, 2017, 02:21:46 PM »

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1109 on: November 01, 2017, 02:41:51 PM »
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

Some interesting points.
The majority of my portfolio remains 'mindless' index funds. My own 'thoughtfully-chosen' investments have outperformed S&P by a few %, not hugely.

Over a longer term it will be interesting if there is a return to mean for market cap vs. GDP and a number of the other 'stretched' valuation indicators. I think it is 'different this time' to an extent due to the global CB activity including artificially low interest rates and equity/debt purchases....

This is interesting. The main question I have concerns the percentage of corporate earnings from outside the US. The five biggest companies in the market are Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon and Google (counting both GOOG and GOOGL). These companies earn a large portion of their revenues outside of the US. It doesn't completely make sense to me to compare their market cap only to US GDP.

Hopefully Mr. Buffet will chime in to clear this up for me.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1110 on: November 01, 2017, 02:43:47 PM »
I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.
+3 Tops
+4 Tops

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1111 on: November 02, 2017, 12:37:41 PM »
I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.
+3 Tops
+4 Tops






DIE FIVE TOPS, DIE DIE DIE!    :P

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1112 on: November 02, 2017, 12:39:20 PM »
Killing the 5 Tops



GuitarStv just beat me to posting this before me....

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1113 on: November 03, 2017, 07:33:19 AM »
"His tattoo says 'Die Bart, Die'!"

"No no no, it's German for 'The Bart, The'!"

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1114 on: November 03, 2017, 08:05:10 AM »
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1115 on: November 03, 2017, 08:19:45 AM »
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

Panning is for suckers. Just moved all my money into shovels (i.e., NVidia).

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1116 on: November 03, 2017, 10:16:20 AM »
 I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  \_(ツ)_/

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1117 on: November 03, 2017, 10:32:21 AM »
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1118 on: November 03, 2017, 10:35:39 AM »
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that.

This made me google for the answer - I thought Hawaii was further west.  I'm wrong.  The Aleutians are further west than Hawaii, but Hawaii is further west than mainland Alaska.

Either way...  hope your wagon floats!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1119 on: November 03, 2017, 10:51:20 AM »
S&P is at 2585. 

Where have you gone, Thorstache?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wu wu wu.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1120 on: November 03, 2017, 11:00:04 AM »
S&P is at 2585. 

Where have you gone, Thorstache?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wu wu wu.


Heavy nowadays
A forsaken Thorstach lost
in spite of the top

https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1121 on: November 03, 2017, 11:02:04 AM »
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  \_(ツ)_/

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
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Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1122 on: November 03, 2017, 12:49:47 PM »

Heavy nowadays
A forsaken Thorstach lost
in spite of the top

https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/

As market soars on
Thorstache is not demure, but,
Shouts, the top is in!

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1123 on: November 03, 2017, 12:53:16 PM »
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  \_(ツ)_/

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1124 on: November 03, 2017, 01:20:38 PM »
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  \_(ツ)_/

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

Stop ruining our pessimism with your facts!
Frugalite in training.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1125 on: November 03, 2017, 01:34:22 PM »
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  \_(ツ)_/

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

'14 saw a dip in Sept/Oct (so did 2012)
'10 saw a dip more in August
Not really any pre-election dips in 2006
The Chase Trifecta:
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https://www.referyourchasecard.com/18/ENYF0FTS66
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/2/DBOP9XI9XT

Southwest Cards - Earn 40k miles for $1k spend in 3 months.
Premier -
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Plus -
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BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1126 on: November 03, 2017, 02:08:31 PM »
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  \_(ツ)_/

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

'14 saw a dip in Sept/Oct (so did 2012)
'10 saw a dip more in August
Not really any pre-election dips in 2006
Using the S&P, 2006 had a 3.5% dip from Jan 1 to June 13, and a 7.7% dip from market peak to trough.
 But, I think my writer was not telling the whole truth, it was more of a "hole truth" :-)
 Am I the first to coin the "hole truth" as the truth with some holes in it?
Two pages into google and I didn't find it.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1127 on: November 03, 2017, 02:54:35 PM »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1128 on: November 03, 2017, 05:56:24 PM »
Uncertain today
Has Thorstach become Negan?
Or he's just batty

the_gastropod

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1129 on: November 06, 2017, 12:48:50 PM »


I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. And I need all of you to stop what you're doing, and listen....

TOP IS IN

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1130 on: November 06, 2017, 12:58:21 PM »
Oh good, I was worried for a minute.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1131 on: November 06, 2017, 03:42:07 PM »

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1132 on: November 07, 2017, 11:51:52 AM »
I need to make an arbitrary and capricious post just to get my count up to 500 and get another square.  This seems to be the right thread to do that. 

Oh, and top is in.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1133 on: November 07, 2017, 12:19:14 PM »
I need to make an arbitrary and capricious post just to get my count up to 500 and get another square.  This seems to be the right thread to do that. 

Oh, and top is in.

Oh, that's what those squares are!

Also, the top appears to have come in a few hours ago. I wish someone would have pointed it out at the time and saved me from the .3% drop.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1134 on: November 07, 2017, 12:40:56 PM »
They look like "Chiclets."

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1135 on: November 07, 2017, 12:53:19 PM »
Saw this on Facebook. Reminded me of this thread.


Cheddar Stacker

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1136 on: November 07, 2017, 01:30:05 PM »
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that.

This made me google for the answer - I thought Hawaii was further west.  I'm wrong.  The Aleutians are further west than Hawaii, but Hawaii is further west than mainland Alaska.

Either way...  hope your wagon floats!

Fun trivia lesson for the day. Hawaii is the southern most state in the US. Alaska is furthest North, West, and East as it crosses the international date line.

Oh, and the top is in.
Indecision may or may not be my problem.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1137 on: November 07, 2017, 03:55:20 PM »
Also, the top appears to have come in a few hours ago. I wish someone would have pointed it out at the time and saved me from the .3% drop.

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secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1138 on: November 07, 2017, 06:34:29 PM »
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but "Top of the Muffin to Ya!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHtWEH0euh4
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solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1139 on: November 08, 2017, 12:23:16 PM »
Man, it'd be fun to hit 2600 this week.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1140 on: November 08, 2017, 03:13:26 PM »
2594.38 @ closing today.....   IMO top is not in......

Where's 2600????

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1141 on: November 08, 2017, 03:55:05 PM »
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

April 11 close: 2353.78.
Today's close: 2594.38.
Percent return over past 211 days of this thread's existence: 10.22%
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 04:00:03 PM by sol »

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1142 on: November 08, 2017, 04:07:23 PM »
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

April 11 close: 2353.78.
Today's close: 2594.38.
Percent return over past 211 days of this thread's existence: 10.22%

For someone like you or I, if we had been "calling the top", this type of data might make us pause and maybe reconsider our initial prediction/assumption.  But for many, many people the opposite is the case.  For them, their reasoning goes something along the lines of:

"Hmm, well the stock market was already overpriced at 2353.78 when I started this thread, and now it's all the way up to 2594.38, so now it's REALLY REALLY overpriced and TOP IS IN!"

Hahaha. 
Frugalite in training.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1143 on: November 08, 2017, 04:41:15 PM »


Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...


Comedy

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1144 on: November 08, 2017, 05:12:59 PM »
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...


Its means..


ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1145 on: November 08, 2017, 05:23:19 PM »
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...
I think it proves pretty conclusively that the OP is not a broken clock; otherwise, he'd at least be right twice a day.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1146 on: November 08, 2017, 06:08:48 PM »
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?

Top is in?

C-note

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1147 on: November 08, 2017, 06:13:46 PM »
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1148 on: November 08, 2017, 06:18:11 PM »
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.
Don't confuse me with logic.

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1149 on: November 08, 2017, 06:26:02 PM »
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.

 Accuracy is 100%.
You can have multiple tops!