Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 575092 times)

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3600 on: October 23, 2018, 09:42:29 AM »
Now we're just being silly.

Now?

sillier
I feel very invested in this thread. Should I bail out now before it goes downhill?

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3601 on: October 23, 2018, 09:45:22 AM »
Top confirmed.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3602 on: October 23, 2018, 09:46:24 AM »
Top confirmed.

Et in saecula saeculorum, Amen.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3603 on: October 23, 2018, 09:53:02 AM »
Top confirmed.

Really?  Now?  Like just now, this minute?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3604 on: October 23, 2018, 10:46:05 AM »
Now we're just being silly.

Now?

sillier
I feel very invested in this thread. Should I bail out now before it goes downhill?

Downhill?  Is that possible?

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3605 on: October 23, 2018, 10:46:44 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Top confirmed.

Deja vu

ketchup

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3606 on: October 23, 2018, 10:46:56 AM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3607 on: October 23, 2018, 12:24:23 PM »
Top confirmed.

Really?  Now?  Like just now, this minute?

Yes, thorstach has that power.  None shall question his authority!!  Especially not by pointing out "Facts" or "Previous Fails". 

swinginbeef

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3608 on: October 23, 2018, 12:51:35 PM »
Top confirmed.

This deserves it's own thread...

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3609 on: October 23, 2018, 12:54:18 PM »
The S&P 500 top in 2000 was around 1,500.  It was "in."  We had a big correction and then it took another 7 years for it to claw back to 1,500 again.  The top was in.  The we had another big correction and it took another 6 years for it to claw back to 1,500 yet again.  The top was in for 13 years.  Until it wasn't. 




PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3610 on: October 23, 2018, 01:26:18 PM »
Top confirmed.

Really?  Now?  Like just now, this minute?

Yes, thorstach has that power.  None shall question his authority!!  Especially not by pointing out "Facts" or "Previous Fails".

Thorstach is really just sol's alter ego. Notice how sol's response is about 7 minutes after thorstach's? Just long enough to allay suspicions, which is suspicious. Also, they both use lowercase for their names, but very punctiliously capitalize the first word of every sentence and use punctuation. Also, great people have told me they are the same, the best people. That's probably enough, it's obvious I've convinced you, you're welcome.

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3611 on: October 23, 2018, 02:48:59 PM »
Just got back from the yard. Should be all good now



(MarketWatch)

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3612 on: October 23, 2018, 03:24:26 PM »
Just got back from the yard. Should be all good now



(MarketWatch)

Good job. You wouldn't want anything to happen to that $45.20.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3613 on: October 23, 2018, 03:28:42 PM »
Top confirmed.

Really?  Now?  Like just now, this minute?

Yes, thorstach has that power.  None shall question his authority!!  Especially not by pointing out "Facts" or "Previous Fails".

Thorstach is really just sol's alter ego. Notice how sol's response is about 7 minutes after thorstach's? Just long enough to allay suspicions, which is suspicious. Also, they both use lowercase for their names, but very punctiliously capitalize the first word of every sentence and use punctuation. Also, great people have told me they are the same, the best people. That's probably enough, it's obvious I've convinced you, you're welcome.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3614 on: October 23, 2018, 03:31:46 PM »
Top confirmed.

Really?  Now?  Like just now, this minute?

Yes, thorstach has that power.  None shall question his authority!!  Especially not by pointing out "Facts" or "Previous Fails".

Thorstach is really just sol's alter ego. Notice how sol's response is about 7 minutes after thorstach's? Just long enough to allay suspicions, which is suspicious. Also, they both use lowercase for their names, but very punctiliously capitalize the first word of every sentence and use punctuation. Also, great people have told me they are the same, the best people. That's probably enough, it's obvious I've convinced you, you're welcome.

You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3615 on: October 23, 2018, 03:52:18 PM »
You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

Who was the last to finger?

jeromedawg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3616 on: October 23, 2018, 03:57:09 PM »
I just converted to all gold bricks. Now I have a place for my in-laws!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3617 on: October 23, 2018, 04:08:53 PM »
You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

It's not me, but I do think it's a good con job. 

Thorstach has never posted in any other part of the forum.  He (or she) never gives us complete sentences that might reveal an identifiable writing style, and is (IMO) unlikely to be a genuinely unique visitor without another account here, given the tenacity required to keep up with this thread for two years.  He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

But alas, 'twas not me who decided to troll the forum.  I suspect one of the lesser-known mods, because they all have the power to identify IP addresses and figure it out pretty quickly.  At this point I'm assuming their collective silence on this one to be complicity.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3618 on: October 23, 2018, 04:28:28 PM »
You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

It's not me, but I do think it's a good con job. 

Thorstach has never posted in any other part of the forum.  He (or she) never gives us complete sentences that might reveal an identifiable writing style, and is (IMO) unlikely to be a genuinely unique visitor without another account here, given the tenacity required to keep up with this thread for two years.  He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

But alas, 'twas not me who decided to troll the forum.  I suspect one of the lesser-known mods, because they all have the power to identify IP addresses and figure it out pretty quickly.  At this point I'm assuming their collective silence on this one to be complicity.

Well, he started this thread too: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/going-in-at-all-time-highs/

The timestamps on his posts show many of them were in the AM, but the stats page shows none in the AM. So that's confusing. https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/profile/?area=showposts;u=34895

Also, he voted in a poll? But that poll is never identified.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3619 on: October 23, 2018, 04:41:22 PM »

He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

Well look who's talking.

Neither of you post between 9 am - 12 pm.  You are also in the same timezone.  Finally, the STC index, which measures Sol-Thorstach correlation, is at an ALL TIME HIGH.  Thorstach confirmed

Seriously, though, I'm sure any of the mods knows who it is, and they are keeping it under their hats, so I suspect one of them to be the culprit.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3620 on: October 23, 2018, 11:32:26 PM »

He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

Well look who's talking.

Neither of you post between 9 am - 12 pm.  You are also in the same timezone.  Finally, the STC index, which measures Sol-Thorstach correlation, is at an ALL TIME HIGH.  Thorstach confirmed

Seriously, though, I'm sure any of the mods knows who it is, and they are keeping it under their hats, so I suspect one of them to be the culprit.

To be totally honest, I think the "trolling" is covering for being wrong.  I think they are a genuine account and were very serious at the start of the thread, going into some detail with arguments. Now that internet fame and fortune are off the list, and all that can be achieved is infamy in the form of going along with a meme-version of themselves that's what they've chosen to do rather than admit defeat

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3621 on: October 24, 2018, 01:05:41 AM »
At the grave risk of posting in this thread seriously for the second time thus earning a bit more wrath from fellow forumites....

Can I ask a question about burying the money in the backyard?

Our Aussie money is plastic polymer, which means it doesn't break down and will still be there intact and in decent condition several years down the track when it is time to dig it up.

Your money is paper(?), which means the worms have just been paid $45 to eat their own lunch?

Another reason, if ever there needed to be one, for investing and not burying the money in the backyard...

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3622 on: October 24, 2018, 02:04:48 AM »
At the grave risk of posting in this thread seriously for the second time thus earning a bit more wrath from fellow forumites....

Can I ask a question about burying the money in the backyard?

Our Aussie money is plastic polymer, which means it doesn't break down and will still be there intact and in decent condition several years down the track when it is time to dig it up.

Your money is paper(?), which means the worms have just been paid $45 to eat their own lunch?

Another reason, if ever there needed to be one, for investing and not burying the money in the backyard...

It's more cottony than papery, but yeah it's not gonna last long in the ground without a container.  It'll usually withstand a wash cycle though.  In fact, washing newly counterfeit money is a great way to make it look like it's been in circulation.  I would never do that, though.  Why not?  Because top is in.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3623 on: October 24, 2018, 06:26:02 AM »
You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

It's not me, but I do think it's a good con job. 

Thorstach has never posted in any other part of the forum.  He (or she) never gives us complete sentences that might reveal an identifiable writing style, and is (IMO) unlikely to be a genuinely unique visitor without another account here, given the tenacity required to keep up with this thread for two years.  He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

But alas, 'twas not me who decided to troll the forum.  I suspect one of the lesser-known mods, because they all have the power to identify IP addresses and figure it out pretty quickly.  At this point I'm assuming their collective silence on this one to be complicity.
I don't see how the mods come into it.  This is probably the longest MMM thread without any abuse or other violations.  Mods should only be interested in that they may take interest in a silly thread, but I doubt that posts are getting reported.  They don't have the impetus to be complicit.

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3624 on: October 24, 2018, 07:49:53 AM »
Mystery of thorstach top is in.

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3625 on: October 24, 2018, 07:55:33 AM »
You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

It's not me, but I do think it's a good con job. 

Thorstach has never posted in any other part of the forum.  He (or she) never gives us complete sentences that might reveal an identifiable writing style, and is (IMO) unlikely to be a genuinely unique visitor without another account here, given the tenacity required to keep up with this thread for two years.  He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

But alas, 'twas not me who decided to troll the forum.  I suspect one of the lesser-known mods, because they all have the power to identify IP addresses and figure it out pretty quickly.  At this point I'm assuming their collective silence on this one to be complicity.

Thorstach is active late in the day because he made a lot of money off his shorts in the 2008 bear market and could afford to retire, switching 90% into bonds and 10% into crypto-.

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3626 on: October 24, 2018, 08:17:03 AM »
or he is all in on gold bullion and can only type later in the day when he is not blinded by the glowing golden hue lighting his room from the morning sun shining on his scrooge mc duck pool from all of the market winning he has had.... ....

facts are facts and using occam's razor that seems to be the simplest explanation.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3627 on: October 24, 2018, 10:22:20 AM »
Here's a thread where he uses complete sentences. Maybe somebody with the analysis gift can learn something from the writing style?

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/going-in-at-all-time-highs/

onlykelsey

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3628 on: October 24, 2018, 10:45:52 AM »
I have to say, I was sort of hoping when I looked up the CAPE ratio for yesterday that it would have regressed further towards the mean... it's still at almost double the historical average.  I'm not making any adjustment to my investment plans, but it still makes me a little jittery.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3629 on: October 24, 2018, 11:12:44 AM »

He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

Well look who's talking.

Neither of you post between 9 am - 12 pm.  You are also in the same timezone.  Finally, the STC index, which measures Sol-Thorstach correlation, is at an ALL TIME HIGH.  Thorstach confirmed

Seriously, though, I'm sure any of the mods knows who it is, and they are keeping it under their hats, so I suspect one of them to be the culprit.

Honestly the time distribution could suggest NZ or Australia.  This also may explain why he keeps posting that the top is in before the market goes up.  He's upside down, so his top is our bottom.  Should the thread really be Southern Hemisphere Top is in?

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3630 on: October 24, 2018, 11:18:25 AM »
Here's a thread where he uses complete sentences. Maybe somebody with the analysis gift can learn something from the writing style?

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/going-in-at-all-time-highs/

Oh wow they have participated in discussion??

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3631 on: October 24, 2018, 12:11:36 PM »

He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

Well look who's talking.

Neither of you post between 9 am - 12 pm.  You are also in the same timezone.  Finally, the STC index, which measures Sol-Thorstach correlation, is at an ALL TIME HIGH.  Thorstach confirmed

Seriously, though, I'm sure any of the mods knows who it is, and they are keeping it under their hats, so I suspect one of them to be the culprit.

Honestly the time distribution could suggest NZ or Australia.  This also may explain why he keeps posting that the top is in before the market goes up.  He's upside down, so his top is our bottom.  Should the thread really be Southern Hemisphere Top is in?

Don't the toilets swirl backwards in the Southern Hemisphere?

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3632 on: October 24, 2018, 12:21:48 PM »

He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

Well look who's talking.

Neither of you post between 9 am - 12 pm.  You are also in the same timezone.  Finally, the STC index, which measures Sol-Thorstach correlation, is at an ALL TIME HIGH.  Thorstach confirmed

Seriously, though, I'm sure any of the mods knows who it is, and they are keeping it under their hats, so I suspect one of them to be the culprit.

Honestly the time distribution could suggest NZ or Australia.  This also may explain why he keeps posting that the top is in before the market goes up.  He's upside down, so his top is our bottom.  Should the thread really be Southern Hemisphere Top is in?

Don't the toilets swirl backwards in the Southern Hemisphere?
Yes.  The water spins upward.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3633 on: October 24, 2018, 12:29:32 PM »
I have to say, I was sort of hoping when I looked up the CAPE ratio for yesterday that it would have regressed further towards the mean... it's still at almost double the historical average.  I'm not making any adjustment to my investment plans, but it still makes me a little jittery.
It's hard to move the needle on something that covers a whole decade. Current trailing twelve month PE ratio is only 40% above the mean.

onlykelsey

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3634 on: October 24, 2018, 12:38:03 PM »
I have to say, I was sort of hoping when I looked up the CAPE ratio for yesterday that it would have regressed further towards the mean... it's still at almost double the historical average.  I'm not making any adjustment to my investment plans, but it still makes me a little jittery.
It's hard to move the needle on something that covers a whole decade. Current trailing twelve month PE ratio is only 40% above the mean.
I knowwwwwwwwwwwwwwww but it makes me anxious.  If you want to be neurotic, you can calculate the shiller ratio over other time frames here: https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/

weirdlair

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3635 on: October 24, 2018, 01:04:54 PM »
Mystery of thorstach top is in.
Snort! LOL!

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3636 on: October 24, 2018, 01:49:43 PM »
I dropped out of the 2017 FIRE class by returning to work this year. I was sitting in the office last week regretting it a little bit. Now that the market is falling it's a bit of a consolation since I have the income to junk more money into the market.

However.... if thorstach is correct and the top is in, it will all be for naught.

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3637 on: October 24, 2018, 02:18:02 PM »
Thankyou Dow for falling another 2% last night, which means our market will promptly drop by 100 points in a few hours time at the open.

Unfortunately I can't buy some more today.... oh well, in a couple of weeks time when funds are available, we'll dive in again.

Position of strength yadda yadda, stay the course etc etc.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3638 on: October 24, 2018, 03:02:46 PM »

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3639 on: October 24, 2018, 03:05:13 PM »
It's a chart! it's a chart, everybody!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3640 on: October 24, 2018, 03:38:20 PM »
That chart looks like it came out of one of those houses of mirrors like at the circus. 

I just did the math, and 8% of my total posts are in this thread. Sad?

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3641 on: October 24, 2018, 04:03:27 PM »
It's a chart! it's a chart, everybody!

Quick, someone do a reverse image search and identify the source of the chart, then cross-correlate with likely mmm forum member suspects.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3642 on: October 24, 2018, 04:21:19 PM »
Top is imminent.


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3643 on: October 24, 2018, 04:23:31 PM »
Someone help me out here, what are the numbers on the right side of thorstachs chart for?  What is this chart actually charting?  I'm going to have to assume it's the number of times the top got called by thorstach during that period.

steveo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3644 on: October 24, 2018, 04:41:04 PM »
Thankyou Dow for falling another 2% last night, which means our market will promptly drop by 100 points in a few hours time at the open.

Unfortunately I can't buy some more today.... oh well, in a couple of weeks time when funds are available, we'll dive in again.

Position of strength yadda yadda, stay the course etc etc.

I bought yesterday - right before it crashed last night and presumably today. Honestly I don't care. This is a correction and I'm buying just like I bought on the way up. If I have the money I buy.

brooklynmoney

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3645 on: October 24, 2018, 04:56:08 PM »
Will this thread be locked now that the top is for sure in fact in?

FIRE 20/20

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3646 on: October 24, 2018, 06:42:19 PM »
It's a chart! it's a chart, everybody!

I used to think that this thread was hilarious, but after seeing that chart I think I'm on board with thorstach.  Clearly according to the chart he posted, there is nowhere to go other than down.  I mean, it could get up to 9200 but then there's no more room.  Clearly the lines can't go off the upper part of the chart, so it will hit the top and bounce down - hard.  It looks like when it gets to 202 on the right side of the bottom axis we'll be down to 400.  The chart proves it to my satisfaction. 

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3647 on: October 25, 2018, 12:30:11 AM »
Thankyou Dow for falling another 2% last night, which means our market will promptly drop by 100 points in a few hours time at the open.

Unfortunately I can't buy some more today.... oh well, in a couple of weeks time when funds are available, we'll dive in again.

Position of strength yadda yadda, stay the course etc etc.
I bought yesterday - right before it crashed last night and presumably today. Honestly I don't care. This is a correction and I'm buying just like I bought on the way up. If I have the money I buy.

Itís been a great week to practice those knife catching skills.

mjr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3648 on: October 25, 2018, 12:33:47 AM »
I bought yesterday - right before it crashed last night and presumably today. Honestly I don't care. This is a correction and I'm buying just like I bought on the way up. If I have the money I buy.

I would get mercilessly sledged for the amount of money I have sitting in cash - so I dropped another $40k into VTS at the close of the Australian market today.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3649 on: October 25, 2018, 12:58:10 AM »
You're not the first to finger sol. But he denies it.

It's not me, but I do think it's a good con job. 

Thorstach has never posted in any other part of the forum.  He (or she) never gives us complete sentences that might reveal an identifiable writing style, and is (IMO) unlikely to be a genuinely unique visitor without another account here, given the tenacity required to keep up with this thread for two years.  He/she has never posted in the mornings, and is mostly active in the late afternoons and evenings.

But alas, 'twas not me who decided to troll the forum.  I suspect one of the lesser-known mods, because they all have the power to identify IP addresses and figure it out pretty quickly.  At this point I'm assuming their collective silence on this one to be complicity.
I don't see how the mods come into it.  This is probably the longest MMM thread without any abuse or other violations.  Mods should only be interested in that they may take interest in a silly thread, but I doubt that posts are getting reported.  They don't have the impetus to be complicit.

Mods can see IPs, and therefore see which two users post from the same IP.  Although one could use a VPN or other obfuscation to hide one's alter-ego, I doubt this joke thread warrants such measures.