Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 411526 times)

afuera

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2900 on: May 09, 2018, 01:33:14 PM »
EVERYONE RELAX... I am in the green again.
I think we all know what this means...

Top is in

I love this thread
"The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it" - Henry David Thoreau

12/2017: INV-5.3x, NW-5.6x
Projected FIRE date: 2025
Journal.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2901 on: May 09, 2018, 02:13:05 PM »

Top is in

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2902 on: May 09, 2018, 02:56:30 PM »

Top is in
Ooh, I was having trouble with moving and italics.  Nicely done!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2903 on: May 09, 2018, 05:02:29 PM »
I love this thread, it's like watching a CNN ticker of nonsense.

The scrolling text reminded me of this gem from page 1

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2904 on: May 09, 2018, 07:55:09 PM »
EVERYONE RELAX... I am in the green again.


solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2905 on: May 10, 2018, 05:40:31 AM »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2906 on: May 10, 2018, 07:51:37 AM »
I love this thread, it's like watching a CNN ticker of nonsense.

The scrolling text reminded me of this gem from page 1

DJI 24,620.37 ↑ 77.83 VTI 139.58 ↑ 0.50 M 29.26  ↓ 0.71 SKY ✈=BLUE TOP ☠ = IN THE SMART INVESTOR THIS SEASON WILL ALWAYS COLLATERALIZE SEQUENTIAL-PAY LOAN PORTFOLIOS. IN UNSECURED SECTORS, NEVER UNDERWRITE HIGHER-CLASSED AMORTIZATIONS. OTC CAPITAL ADEQUACY REQUIREMENTS: IN THE AERONAUTICS MARKETPLACE, BE SURE TO SECURITIZE THEM.TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN TOP IS IN

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2907 on: May 10, 2018, 08:08:53 AM »
I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

Who called a top on Mar 2nd and a bottom on Mar 6th?
I just scrolled back through the thread and couldn't find anything like that.

EDITED TO ADD:
Also, it looks like the market went up between Mar 2 and Mar 6, so if anyone did in fact call a top and then bottom they would have been wrong.  I assume I completely misunderstood what you meant.


Hi Mr.D
I am afraid of further jinxing, but hopefully all will be revealed, in time :)
fingers crossed.

It's been two months since that post now... so...how much more time do we need for all to be revealed?

Granted, calling something after it happens doesn't really take much insight.

I mean, I knew back at the start of March that the S&P would dip down a bit just to climb back up to spitting distance of where it was 2 months ago today, but I didn't want to jinx it by making the claim publicly beforehand.  Now that the danger of any jinxing has passed I can safely let you all in on my insights, however.

[/friendly sarcasm]

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2908 on: May 10, 2018, 08:56:39 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2909 on: May 10, 2018, 10:03:52 AM »
Somehow, my investment accounts have magically recovered all of their February losses, and my spreadsheet is showing new record highs day after day.  This correction doesn't feel nearly as threatening as I thought it would.

As it turns out, being a buyer during a downturn is pretty profitable.  Vive la top.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2910 on: May 10, 2018, 10:15:28 AM »
Somehow, my investment accounts have magically recovered all of their February losses, and my spreadsheet is showing new record highs day after day.  This correction doesn't feel nearly as threatening as I thought it would.

As it turns out, being a buyer during a downturn is pretty profitable.  Vive la top.
Sol, you are probably reading the chart wrong.  Cross conventional charts with a negative Y axis demonstrate that gains are impossible.  Only one fact remains.  Top is in... top is always in.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2911 on: May 10, 2018, 10:24:39 AM »
Somehow, my investment accounts have magically recovered all of their February losses, and my spreadsheet is showing new record highs day after day.  This correction doesn't feel nearly as threatening as I thought it would.

As it turns out, being a buyer during a downturn is pretty profitable.  Vive la top.

Incorrect.  You did not have February losses!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2912 on: May 10, 2018, 10:43:46 AM »
Somehow, my investment accounts have magically recovered all of their February losses, and my spreadsheet is showing new record highs day after day.  This correction doesn't feel nearly as threatening as I thought it would.

As it turns out, being a buyer during a downturn is pretty profitable.  Vive la top.

Incorrect.  You did not have February losses!

The imaginary portion of my investment account is at all time highs.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2913 on: May 10, 2018, 10:50:26 AM »
Incorrect.  You did not have February losses!

If I didn't have losses, then I haven't had gains either.  It's all paper funny money until you spend it.

In a way, virtually every penny I've ever invested has had 100% losses.  I put real money in, and got nothing back out.  I could have spent that money on real economic activity, but instead I gave it to vanguard or similar, and they gave it to someone who was selling.  That person made money, and I lost money.  And all I have to show for my losses is an arbitrary and ever growing tally of shares in a computer server somewhere, and the hope that I can someday trade those shares for real money.

Suddenly bitcoin seems a little less stupid, right?

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2914 on: May 10, 2018, 10:54:40 AM »
We all had February losses. We have losses every day from now on, because Top is in.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2915 on: May 10, 2018, 10:57:14 AM »
Incorrect.  You did not have February losses!

If I didn't have losses, then I haven't had gains either.  It's all paper funny money until you spend it.

In a way, virtually every penny I've ever invested has had 100% losses.  I put real money in, and got nothing back out.  I could have spent that money on real economic activity, but instead I gave it to vanguard or similar, and they gave it to someone who was selling.  That person made money, and I lost money.  And all I have to show for my losses is an arbitrary and ever growing tally of shares in a computer server somewhere, and the hope that I can someday trade those shares for real money.

Suddenly bitcoin seems a little less stupid, right?

You can point at expansions in companies you own shares in, and say that .00000001% of that money came from you, and they will be giving you back the profits from that.
Bitcoin....no idea. You bought a currency.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2916 on: May 10, 2018, 11:05:03 AM »
You can point at expansions in companies you own shares in, and say that .00000001% of that money came from you, and they will be giving you back the profits from that.
Bitcoin....no idea. You bought a currency.

None of that money came from me!  It came from distant past investor who bought at the IPO, or at a new stock issue.  I bought my shares from another investor, not from a company.  My capital didn't flow to a corporation, it flowed to a person, and before that his capital flowed to another person.  It's all a shell game.  We're just buying from eachother the rights to a tiny sliver of profits, but since I'm reinvesting dividends I don't even get that.

I have never purchased a cryptocurrency.  Don't be ridiculous.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2917 on: May 10, 2018, 11:22:13 AM »
You can point at expansions in companies you own shares in, and say that .00000001% of that money came from you, and they will be giving you back the profits from that.
Bitcoin....no idea. You bought a currency.


I have never purchased a cryptocurrency.  Don't be ridiculous.
Fair enough! (Unless it's like Tesla, and putting out more shares)
The "you" was the buyer of cryptocurrency. I know you're fully invested in the production and sales of Vitamix.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2918 on: May 10, 2018, 11:28:49 AM »
Incorrect.  You did not have February losses!

If I didn't have losses, then I haven't had gains either.  It's all paper funny money until you spend it.

In a way, virtually every penny I've ever invested has had 100% losses.  I put real money in, and got nothing back out.  I could have spent that money on real economic activity, but instead I gave it to vanguard or similar, and they gave it to someone who was selling.  That person made money, and I lost money.  And all I have to show for my losses is an arbitrary and ever growing tally of shares in a computer server somewhere, and the hope that I can someday trade those shares for real money.

Suddenly bitcoin seems a little less stupid, right?

If you want to get all nitpicky technical, isn't "real money" a contradiction?

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2919 on: May 10, 2018, 11:29:00 AM »

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2920 on: May 10, 2018, 11:34:26 AM »
"You don't need to see his February losses."
"We don't need to see his February losses."

"He can go about his business."
"You can go about your business."

"Top is in."
"Top is in, top is in."

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2921 on: May 10, 2018, 11:46:27 AM »
If I didn't have losses, then I haven't had gains either.  It's all paper funny money until you spend it.

Technically you had dividends, that you probably (and smartly) reinvested, so I wouldn't say you didn't get paid _any_thing.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2922 on: May 10, 2018, 09:48:35 PM »
If I didn't have losses, then I haven't had gains either.  It's all paper funny money until you spend it.

Technically you had dividends, that you probably (and smartly) reinvested, so I wouldn't say you didn't get paid _any_thing.

No, in sol's thought experiment any money that is not spent on real economic activity cannot be counted as a gain or loss. So dividends reinvested are just more paper* funny money that eventually cost you real money in the form of taxes.

*Paradoxically in this thought experiment paper is never actually paper these days, while real money is still sometimes paper (and sometimes Beanie Babies).




dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2923 on: May 10, 2018, 11:16:05 PM »
You can point at expansions in companies you own shares in, and say that .00000001% of that money came from you, and they will be giving you back the profits from that.
Bitcoin....no idea. You bought a currency.

None of that money came from me!  It came from distant past investor who bought at the IPO, or at a new stock issue.  I bought my shares from another investor, not from a company.  My capital didn't flow to a corporation, it flowed to a person, and before that his capital flowed to another person.  It's all a shell game.  We're just buying from eachother the rights to a tiny sliver of profits, but since I'm reinvesting dividends I don't even get that.

I have never purchased a cryptocurrency.  Don't be ridiculous.

Don’t companies occasionally sell reserved shares to raise capital?  Is this only done through intermediaries and not on the open market?

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2924 on: May 11, 2018, 06:27:35 AM »
"You don't need to see his February losses."
"We don't need to see his February losses."

"He can go about his business."
"You can go about your business."

"Top is in."
"Top is in, top is in."
This is not the top you're looking for.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2925 on: May 11, 2018, 06:36:10 AM »
You can point at expansions in companies you own shares in, and say that .00000001% of that money came from you, and they will be giving you back the profits from that.
Bitcoin....no idea. You bought a currency.

None of that money came from me!  It came from distant past investor who bought at the IPO, or at a new stock issue.  I bought my shares from another investor, not from a company.  My capital didn't flow to a corporation, it flowed to a person, and before that his capital flowed to another person.  It's all a shell game.  We're just buying from eachother the rights to a tiny sliver of profits, but since I'm reinvesting dividends I don't even get that.

I have never purchased a cryptocurrency.  Don't be ridiculous.

Don’t companies occasionally sell reserved shares to raise capital?  Is this only done through intermediaries and not on the open market?

You can also google Junk bonds. (or non-junk ones, but I prefer those for the example of companies needing money bad.)

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2926 on: May 11, 2018, 07:06:48 AM »
"You don't need to see his February losses."
"We don't need to see his February losses."

"He can go about his business."
"You can go about your business."

"Top is in."
"Top is in, top is in."
This is not the top you're looking for.

Found it!

https://i0.wp.com/s3.scoopwhoop.com/anj/Bra4/467450670.gif


aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2927 on: May 11, 2018, 06:01:43 PM »
EVERYONE RELAX... I am in the green again.


The  Angry Green Top is in!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2928 on: May 12, 2018, 02:16:52 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2929 on: May 12, 2018, 02:46:48 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

Me too!   I'm losing 3.1%/365.25 to inflation today!   And on Sunday too!   Panic!   The Top is In!

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2930 on: May 12, 2018, 05:53:35 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

Me too!   I'm losing 3.1%/365.25 to inflation today!   And on Sunday too!   Panic!   The Top is In!

Sunday?  It's Saturday.  You must be one of those out of touch early retired folks that doesn't even have to keep up with the day of the week any more :P
Frugalite in training.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2931 on: May 12, 2018, 08:05:39 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

Me too!   I'm losing 3.1%/365.25 to inflation today!   And on Sunday too!   Panic!   The Top is In!

Sunday?  It's Saturday.  You must be one of those out of touch early retired folks that doesn't even have to keep up with the day of the week any more :P

No, no, you've got it all wrong!    I'm bewailing my inflation loss for today and ANTICIPATING my inflation loss for tomorrow.   :)


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2932 on: May 12, 2018, 08:35:46 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

Me too!   I'm losing 3.1%/365.25 to inflation today!   And on Sunday too!   Panic!   The Top is In!

Sunday?  It's Saturday.  You must be one of those out of touch early retired folks that doesn't even have to keep up with the day of the week any more :P

I like to tell my wife “it’s SURSDAY!” And she’s like no it’s fridAy.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 08:43:53 PM by dragoncar »

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2933 on: May 13, 2018, 10:54:08 AM »

If I didn't have losses, then I haven't had gains either.  It's all paper funny money until you spend it.

In a way, virtually every penny I've ever invested has had 100% losses.  I put real money in, and got nothing back out.  I could have spent that money on real economic activity, but instead I gave it to vanguard or similar, and they gave it to someone who was selling.  That person made money, and I lost money.  And all I have to show for my losses is an arbitrary and ever growing tally of shares in a computer server somewhere, and the hope that I can someday trade those shares for real money.

Suddenly bitcoin seems a little less stupid, right?

Haha, very funny from @sol.  But also very profound.


*Paradoxically in this thought experiment paper is never actually paper these days, while real money is still sometimes paper (and sometimes Beanie Babies).

Also funny but profound, @aspiringnomad

The pattern is clear.  Funny but profound top is IN!!!!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2934 on: May 13, 2018, 01:33:22 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

Me too!   I'm losing 3.1%/365.25 to inflation today!   And on Sunday too!   Panic!   The Top is In!

Sunday?  It's Saturday.  You must be one of those out of touch early retired folks that doesn't even have to keep up with the day of the week any more :P

No, no, you've got it all wrong!    I'm bewailing my inflation loss for today and ANTICIPATING my inflation loss for tomorrow.   :)

When we get to pre-war Germany levels of inflation I'll start worrying about my inflation loss over a weekend, until then, TOP IS IN!

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2935 on: May 16, 2018, 01:48:14 PM »

Just checking is the "Top In?"


ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2936 on: May 16, 2018, 02:34:11 PM »
Just checking is the "Top In?"

I thought it was your turn to watch him?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2937 on: May 16, 2018, 03:01:03 PM »
Just checking is the "Top In?"

I thought it was your turn to watch him?

Nobody was watching him?  TOP ON THE LOOSE

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2938 on: May 16, 2018, 05:01:35 PM »
Just checking is the "Top In?"

I thought it was your turn to watch him?

Nobody was watching him?  TOP ON THE LOOSE


techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2939 on: May 18, 2018, 12:45:05 PM »
Where in the world is the TOP?



The Top just keeps going and going....


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2940 on: May 27, 2018, 07:24:45 PM »
Argentinian and Turkish currencies are plunging - Top is in.

Cache Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2941 on: May 28, 2018, 04:31:44 PM »
Guys I’m really worried my investments haven’t gone up at all today.

Me too!   I'm losing 3.1%/365.25 to inflation today!   And on Sunday too!   Panic!   The Top is In!

Sunday?  It's Saturday.  You must be one of those out of touch early retired folks that doesn't even have to keep up with the day of the week any more :P

Every day is Saturday or Sunday when retired.  I have to look at the calendar to find out.  Usually surprising :)



anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2942 on: May 28, 2018, 05:58:56 PM »
I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

Who called a top on Mar 2nd and a bottom on Mar 6th?
I just scrolled back through the thread and couldn't find anything like that.

EDITED TO ADD:
Also, it looks like the market went up between Mar 2 and Mar 6, so if anyone did in fact call a top and then bottom they would have been wrong.  I assume I completely misunderstood what you meant.


Hi Mr.D
I am afraid of further jinxing, but hopefully all will be revealed, in time :)
fingers crossed.

It's been two months since that post now... so...how much more time do we need for all to be revealed?

Granted, calling something after it happens doesn't really take much insight.

I mean, I knew back at the start of March that the S&P would dip down a bit just to climb back up to spitting distance of where it was 2 months ago today, but I didn't want to jinx it by making the claim publicly beforehand.  Now that the danger of any jinxing has passed I can safely let you all in on my insights, however.

[/friendly sarcasm]

@MrDelane

Hey sorry I just saw the reply now, I will reply in full either tonight or tomorrow.

Edit 1: Most likely tomorrow, it's so hot in the house now :(
Brace yo selves.
ya, hide yo kids and yo wife~
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 06:09:31 PM by anisotropy »

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2943 on: May 28, 2018, 06:01:23 PM »
Brace yo selves.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2944 on: May 29, 2018, 12:05:15 AM »

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2945 on: May 29, 2018, 01:33:18 AM »
Preface: I would like to first explain my recent absence, if anyone cared. In March I got into an argument in an off topic thread. I discovered a poster called me, in secret, a “MRA Dipsh!t” as I merely used ontological reductionism and statistics to present my views. I caught them in the act and protested; the Mod ninja-deleted my post and locked the thread promptly (literally minutes) after. I decided I no longer wanted to be associated with this forum and ceased to participate. Shit happened. March 14th, I will get back to that.

Then I got into active “investments” (Re: light tradings here and there), which took a whole lot of my time to research so my trades would be profitable. Oh and there was the (our first) annual religious ritual to worship and make sacrifices to the Oracle and Supreme Leader in Omaha. Wife and I had originally planned to be away for only a week, but it evolved into a month long road trip in the Mid-West, typical post-FIRE life stuff.

Despite all that, I suspected Mr.D might hold me to my promise one day, so I checked the thread from time to time. Sure enough, I have been summoned, so let’s do this.

MrDelane,
In my March 9th post, I made the assertion that someone had nailed both the top and the bottom in quick succession, which caused the lull in post frequency between March 2nd and 6th. I was of course referring to none other than myself. Ahem. Or rather, my greatprophet alter ego, in the form of monthly sermons.

First, the call for top. Under my “greatprophet” persona, my monthly sermon on Feb 1st post (#1890) cleared stated “Sometimes to continue our ascent, we must first go down; to go further, we must first set camp and recover our strength.” I believed while the major top still lie ahead, a local top had been reached, S&P was 2821 at the time. In the same post, I also mentioned the volatility would be way higher going forward and positioned accordingly, the details can be seen in post#2116. I still lost money in early Feb when compared to late Jan, but like I said, it was likely a less severe loss when compared to other index investors, much less than the S&P itself.

I want to point out, prior to my Feb 1st post, unlike some timers here (coughthorstasch) I had been quite bullish in general, as can be seen in many of my past posts. Anyway, my Feb 1st post was my very first “omg top” post, which proved to be quite timely (lucky). One for one, so far.

You might ask, why did I still lose money if I am so good at timing? More importantly, why didn’t I just liquidate completely if I knew market was going to drop? I was mainly concerned about taxes. I’ve mentioned in the past that I timed (out then in, luck no doubt) the market in 15/16, since then, like many people, my portfolio has gone up ~45% (massive unrealized gains, I am working on it) as of Feb 1st 2018. If I were to liquidate completely, I would be hit with a guaranteed 8% loss (taxes and loss of “benefits”). 

Assuming everything played out optimally, the market would then need to drop a minimum of 8% for this action to be a net positive. I was not convinced this would happen, as the fundamentals were still good in January. My objective then, was to find ways to profit should the market does tank (HUV / VXX in my post). As long as my “net loss” remained below the market (index?) loss % and the 8% threshold, it would be a “success” so far as timing the top is concerned. In this correction so far, peak to trough is around 11% for S&P, 8% for an index that best resembles my asset allocation (30% MSCI, 30% TSX, 30% S&P, 10% bond). Luckily, my “anti-market” bet worked out in my favor. I still lost money, around 4% peak to trough.

Now, the call for bottom. In the timing game, calling top is only half of the battle, you gotta nail the bottom too. Again, my alter ego proclaimed in the monthly sermon on March 1st (post #2447) “The climb shall be renewed”, signaling a bottom (S&P 2685 at the time). I then observed as the market advanced from Mar 3rd to March 6th (2660 to 2725), an eerie silence descended upon the crowd, and the post frequency dropped off a cliff, this prompted me to declare “victory” on March 7th (post #2486), which led to our exchange on March 9th and 10th.

I will concede the silence was probably due to other factors, the weekend for example, but we will never know for sure; unless every regular poster up till then would divulge their reasons for not posting during that time. But let’s forget about the lack of posting and examine my bottom call on March 1st.

As far as numbers go, S&P today 2721 is higher than 2685, but it is more complicated than that.  As of March 1st, I thought the correction was likely over and we would start going up to new highs “momentarily”. In fact, I was so sure of it I arrogantly proclaimed we would see new “market highs once again by our next sermon”. That turned out to a be a incorrect call, as S&P never made it back, sure the NASDAQ made new highs on March 12th, but S&P is the biz and the measuring stick by convention. I was then in a bind, I couldn’t publicly update my view until market hits new high! By Mar 15th, I realized we were likely going back to test the previous low, but by that point I was done with this forum. You see, the event I mentioned in the beginning of the post happened on Mar 14th, and you can see I had posted nothing else until today.

Of course I made more moves in April and my views changed, but they were not documented here, so we will ignore all of that. For our purpose, let’s just look at how the market performed prior to Mar 14th, when I decided to leave. March 1st turned out to be near a local low, not breached before Mar 14th, and was followed by a local high on March 13th.

If nothing else, we can look at how my recorded calls here turned out in the last 4 months for a hypothetical portfolio, ignoring taxes and fees, for now.
B&H: 2673.61 > 2721.33, YTD gain of 1.784%.
Timing: 2673.61 > 2821, gain of 5.536%;  2685 > 2721.33, gain of 1.353%. YTD gain of 6.964%, gross difference of 5.18%

If we assume the portfolios did not have any prior unrealized gains, net of taxes, the one that timed based on my calls would be ahead by about 4%. This number might look small but is in fact a big deal. 4% over performance over 4 months from timing moves alone, and this correction wasn’t even that severe.

Can we say my score is now two for two? I think not, as I am a bit of a perfectionist. I timed a local bottom, but not the bottom prior to Mar 14th. On the plus side, S&P is still trying to break out of range and make new highs, but I am pleased to report (brag) that my portfolio has been making new highs for three weeks. Note, this is after we had paid our hefty tax bill in April, and in absence of any new contributions, as the increase in portfolio value was “endogenous” from timing the top and BTFD, and light trades.

Recall in our earlier conversations I mentioned I wanted to call the major top here, should I spot it coming. After what happened on March 14th, however, I no longer believe in such endeavor, in fact, I will stop making public forecasts altogether here. You can thank the Mod for possibly saving you quite a bit of money as we know no one can time the market perfectly all the time*. I might, however, give my opinion to certain posters that had helped me on various occasions (the kind person who gave me tips regarding Omaha this year for example). They can then do w/e they please with that information.

*by now we’ve seen you don’t need to time it perfectly to make money, this exercise is a great example.

I hope this reply is to your satisfaction. As I pride myself as an evidenced based investor, I am fully aware luck could have played a major role in all of this, in fact, it probably did. By the same token however, if we are to entertain the idea luck played a major role, shouldn’t we also entertain the idea luck played a minor role only?

One way to deal with this is the Bayesian way of looking at the things: when in doubt, don’t be 100% certain, let the evidence decide for you. Since I started my monthly sermons on Oct 2017, I had been bullish the whole time until my Feb 1st post, right before the correction, was it all luck? I picked a local bottom before I left in protest, was it also all luck?

There is no magic in investing, as least I don’t know any, everything I do is rule (math) based. I would like to point out, a small group of investors/timers have been able to make good calls time and time again, maybe it’s all luck, or maybe Buffett was right, it has to do with intellectual origin.

The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville
Scientific inquiry naturally follows such a pattern. If you were trying to analyze possible causes of a rare type of cancer — with, say, 1,500 cases a year in the United States — and you found that 400 of them occurred in some little mining town in Montana, you would get very interested in the water there, or the occupation of those afflicted, or other variables. You know it’s not random chance that 400 come from a small area. You would not necessarily know the causal factors, but you would know where to search.

I submit to you that there are ways of defining an origin other than geography. In addition to geographical origins, there can be what I call an intellectual origin. I think you will find that a disproportionate number of successful coin-flippers in the investment world came from a very small intellectual village that could be called Graham-and-Doddsville. A concentration of winners that simply cannot be explained by chance can be traced to this particular intellectual village.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 – Warren Buffett, 1984


SwitchActiveDWG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2946 on: May 29, 2018, 05:54:41 AM »
So does all of the above mean... top is in?

theoverlook

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2947 on: May 29, 2018, 08:18:57 AM »
Self: Wow, that's a lot of words, is it worth reading?
Quote
“Sometimes to continue our ascent, we must first go down; to go further, we must first set camp and recover our strength.”
Oh dear god, never mind.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2948 on: May 29, 2018, 08:29:26 AM »

Quote
“Sometimes to continue our ascent, we must first go down; to go further, we must first set camp and recover our strength.”
Oh dear god, never mind.


lol.

yeah that.
Not toppy enough for this thread.
_____________
JTF 96

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2949 on: May 29, 2018, 08:36:16 AM »


MRA dipshit

tl;dr

Do meals, ready to eat (ate?) mean that you become a dipshit?

Not sure I follow or care.  Anyway, MRE top is in!