Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 65406 times)

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #450 on: July 13, 2017, 02:58:16 PM »
I think I know when top is really in now.

When thorstach starts posting about how the market is going to go up, then we know top is in.

no, it's when mrpercentage comes back saying green dow ahead!

Seriously though, I hope that guy is alright, he just disappeared.

I miss mrpercentage too. But thorstach helps.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #451 on: July 13, 2017, 03:01:03 PM »
Go watch the movie "The Big Short".  It's about the housing crash.  I recognize that it's Hollywood, but it's close enough to the real story and on point to the message (and fun to watch).  All of the professionals in the industry missed the "signs" of a massive bubble about to burst, except a few really smart experts who took advantage of it.

Investing in a singular company well is extremely difficult and time intensive.  Warren Buffet is world renowned for a reason.  Understanding the economy as a whole is infinitely harder. 

Index funds were designed so people could invest for the long term and not have to be experts.  Appreciate Bogle's gift and take heart the lesson he advocates.

Isn't that just survivorship bias?  What about all those people that lost a lot money due to bad timing? They were too early, or too late in calling the bubble and got left holding the bag.  If somebody is always crying wolf eventually someone will be right by pure luck.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #452 on: July 14, 2017, 08:24:12 AM »
Wait, is today the new top?
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marielle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #453 on: July 14, 2017, 08:27:59 AM »

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #454 on: July 14, 2017, 08:29:16 AM »
Wait, is today the new top?

Not until the day's close, in my mind, but right now today is another new top for both SPX and DJIA. 

All previous calls of the top in this thread were wrong.  Maybe the next one will be right?  Thorstach?  MrPercentage?  Bueller?

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #455 on: July 14, 2017, 11:08:01 AM »
All previous calls of the top in this thread were wrong.  Maybe the next one will be right?  Thorstach?  MrPercentage?  Bueller?

Maybe Ben Stein (of the Bueller quote), who's written a nice book on market timing.
Yes, You Can Time the Market by Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth   
TL;DR  only buy stocks when they are below the rolling  15? year average.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #456 on: July 14, 2017, 02:04:01 PM »
Top is in today for SPY and .INX. Not for VOO or IVV. I am confused.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #457 on: July 14, 2017, 02:15:45 PM »
Top is in today for SPY and .INX. Not for VOO or IVV. I am confused.



That's why most of us can't be "Market Experts" please wait for Torstach to explain what's going on before you make any moves.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #458 on: July 14, 2017, 02:29:14 PM »
Top is in today for SPY and .INX. Not for VOO or IVV. I am confused.



That's why most of us can't be "Market Experts" please wait for Torstach to explain what's going on before you make any moves.
Sweet illustration.

Morpheus

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #459 on: July 16, 2017, 05:07:17 PM »
I couldn't find any other relevant thread to post this in, so I'll use this one.
Here is something I've been wondering about lately:
Since around election date until now S&P gained almost 18% in less than 10 months (VTSAX gained a bit over 18%)
I've heard and read a lot of opinions that correlate this unusually high rate, to the expectation and optimism that the new administration will deliver on it's promise to lower the corporate tax drastically. That makes a lot of sense to me - less tax for corporations means more profits that can go to investing more in R&D thus producing better products and services, and being able to sell them in a lower price. all of those will produce even more profits.
Although at the beginning it seemed that the new administration is eager to deliver upon it's promises (Executive orders, etc...). De facto, 6 months in, it has achieved very little if anything and I haven't heard about any progress on the corporate tax front. Not only that, the new administration is under multiple investigations that (regardless of whether the accusations are true or not) makes it harder for the administration to concentrate and do it's job. All that been happening suggests that there is a cloud of uncertainty. and the market does not like uncertainty.
So, the question is - how come we haven't seen any correction yet?

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #460 on: July 16, 2017, 05:13:52 PM »
I couldn't find any other relevant thread to post this in, so I'll use this one.
Here is something I've been wondering about lately:
Since around election date until now S&P gained almost 18% in less than 10 months (VTSAX gained a bit over 18%)
I've heard and read a lot of opinions that correlate this unusually high rate, to the expectation and optimism that the new administration will deliver on it's promise to lower the corporate tax drastically. That makes a lot of sense to me - less tax for corporations means more profits that can go to investing more in R&D thus producing better products and services, and being able to sell them in a lower price. all of those will produce even more profits.
Although at the beginning it seemed that the new administration is eager to deliver upon it's promises (Executive orders, etc...). De facto, 6 months in, it has achieved very little if anything and I haven't heard about any progress on the corporate tax front. Not only that, the new administration is under multiple investigations that (regardless of whether the accusations are true or not) makes it harder for the administration to concentrate and do it's job. All that been happening suggests that there is a cloud of uncertainty. and the market does not like uncertainty.
So, the question is - how come we haven't seen any correction yet?

For the moment at least S&P 500 profits have grown double digits the first and second quarter year over year. So there's optimism this will continue. Europe's economy is finally gaining traction, China hasn't had a deleveraging debt burden burst, and so worldwide demand is growing for products/services.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #461 on: July 16, 2017, 05:30:59 PM »
Somehow I'm on this investment company's email list. I stay on it because it teaches me the mistakes of trying to predict the market.
Can you see the hidden gems here ?

"Stock Bull Market Still Intact!
 
We have been telling you that stocks are overvalued for over two years. We have also been telling you to expect volatility to return to the market. Stocks may have been overvalued but "Mr. Market" does not seem to care and volatility has been absent without leave (AWOL)! 

During 2016 and 2017 our best performing investment strategy has been Dividend Diamonds. This is because it is 100% invested in stocks and stocks just keep trending upward. Dividend Diamonds also benefits significantly from the rising dividend income produced by the 40 stocks in the portfolio. The dividend income has risen every year since we introduced the strategy at the end of 2009.

Owning Dividend Diamonds is still one of the best ways we know to get a "raise in pay" on a regular basis. The strategy has offered solid growth and rising income since we introduced it.

Back in 2010 and 2011 we were still reporting composite performance of all accounts we managed within a particular strategy. We were using Schwab Performance Technologies software to calculate those performance reports. According to our records, Dividend Diamonds total return for 2010 was 15.93%. In 2011 it was 4.44%. That was a year when many stock markets around the world were down double-digits for the year.

We have not reported composite performance since 2011. We now report performance to each account holder for their specific accounts using Orion Advisors Performance Report app. We use one account in the strategy as the "model account" and continuously rebalance all the other accounts to be as closely invested to the model as we can. Our Model Dividend Diamonds account has averaged 8.83% annual time weighted return from December 31, 2011 through July 14, 2017, net of all fees.

Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old. Our promise for this strategy has always been to "provide market like returns with significantly lower volatility than the S&P 500".

We feel like we have kept that promise, even though Mendocino significantly underperformed in 2015 and 2016. We kept the portfolio hedged and missed most of the upside in stocks during those year. We were hedged in anticipation of that volatility we were looking for.

The longer term performance for Mendocino is solid. For example, we have managed an account for one of our clients continuously from August 11, 1998 through July 14, 2017. The average annual time weighted return is 5.89% per annum, net of all management fees. The return for the S&P 500 is 6.50% per annum over those same 19 years (without any management fees).

One's first reaction might be to say, "I would have been better of investing in the S&P 500 index". That would be true if you had invested in a very low cost ETF and if you had the stomach to buy it and hold it through all the ups and downs; including multiple stock market crashes.

We are still looking for the investor who actually did that! We know many who tried, but got shaken out of the market by the violent moves up and down.

Mendocino's return was accomplished while rarely being more than 60% invested in stocks. It was accomplished with volatility that was far and away less than that of the overall stock market. We believe it has been a "sleep well at night" strategy.

This year-to-date that same managed account is up 6.75%, net of all management fees.

During 2017 we have taken a page out of the Dividend Diamonds playbook for Mendocino. That is, we are focusing more and more on stocks that offer rising dividends.

We have not moved entirely in that direction. We still want to own pure growth stocks in Mendocino. For example the #1 performer in the strategy since inception is Facebook (FB). Dividend Diamonds can't own Facebook because it doesn't pay a dividend.

We would like to achieve a balance of about 70% allocation to high yield and/or rising dividend stocks and 30% to pure growth stocks.

As of this writing we have about a 25% allocation to cash in the Mendocino strategy. We also have an allocation of about 9% to hedges that will protect on the downside if we do get a correction.

We are entering the season when they normally happen, if they are going to happen at all.

We think a correction might be approaching, bearing in mind that we have been wrong before. Frankly we hope it happens and will consider it to be a buying opportunity to get the rest of that cash to work and lift the hedges.

We are not bearish about stocks in any way at this time. We think that any correction of 5 to 7% will get bought in a hurry by managers and investors shopping for bargains. A correction of that magnitude will take most U.S. stock indexes back to their 200 day moving averages. They should be met there by a buying frenzy--if a correction happens at all.

As for "Sell in May and Go Away", Tom Bowley, of Stockcharts.com, wrote the following on his blog today:

I believe the true "go away" period is from the July 17 close to the September 27 close.  This period has been difficult and it begins at Monday's close.  Over the past 67 years on the S&P 500, this much shorter two month and ten day period has risen 37 times.  The average return during this 71 day period is -0.42%.  The annualized return has been -2.18%.  While that might not seem like much, it's actually more than 11 percentage points beneath the average annual return of approximately 9% that the S&P 500 has enjoyed since 1950.
Here is potentially the biggest problem.  When we've seen big moves on the S&P 500 from July 17th to September 27th in the past, they've generally been downside moves.  The S&P 500 has moved +/- 10% or more 11 times during this period since 1950 and 8 of those moves have been declines.  Here are the eight awful summers:
1957:  -12.41%
1966:  -10.31%
1974:  -22.31%
1981:  -13.86%
1990:  -18.11%
1998:  -11.97%
2001:  -16.13%
2011:  -10.69%
So clearly this is the time of summer - and the year - when the stock market has the tendency to underperform.  And from the above, you can see that the underperformance can be quite severe certain years.  While I believe the long-term viability of the current bull market is sound, we did break out to an S&P 500 all-time high close on Friday with a negative divergence present on the weekly chart - a sign of slowing upside momentum:


==The last time we saw momentum slowing like this on the weekly chart was in 2015.  Shortly thereafter, the S&P 500 dropped from 2135 to 1870 in two months!  Perhaps it's a coincidence, but note that the highs were established in July 2015 and the ensuing weakness occurred in August and September - two notoriously bearish summer months that we're now approaching.
Will we see a repeat?  Stay tuned.....
If the correction happens Mendocino will be a buyer of the dip!

All the best,
 
PAUL KRSEK,
CEO
5TQ CAPITAL, LLC
595 Coombs Street, Napa, Ca, 94559
(707) 224-1340 Main
 

WildJager

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #462 on: July 16, 2017, 06:06:26 PM »
So, the question is - how come we haven't seen any correction yet?

I think this touches upon efficient market theory a bit.  The theory states that the market self regulates to all conditions, therefore the current market price is an accurate reflection of how businesses are performing.  However, this is only a theory, and in my opinion an inaccurate one.  The .com and housing bubbles showed that the market was severely overvalued for their respective reasons, however the market didn't react smoothly.  They were eras of "buy, buy, buy!" until suddenly the underlying problems were recognized, and then everyone clamored to sell before they got stuck holding the last worthless tulip.  Of course, the market eventually stabilized to a rational level and those who had the fortitude to stay in the market did quite well for themselves. 

On a long enough timeline the efficient market theory is perhaps accurate, but on the short term greed and complex investment vehicles muddy up the waters.

Le Barbu

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #463 on: July 16, 2017, 06:31:53 PM »
Somehow I'm on this investment company's email list. I stay on it because it teaches me the mistakes of trying to predict the market.
Can you see the hidden gems here ?

"Stock Bull Market Still Intact!
 
We have been telling you that stocks are overvalued for over two years. We have also been telling you to expect volatility to return to the market. Stocks may have been overvalued but "Mr. Market" does not seem to care and volatility has been absent without leave (AWOL)! 

During 2016 and 2017 our best performing investment strategy has been Dividend Diamonds. This is because it is 100% invested in stocks and stocks just keep trending upward. Dividend Diamonds also benefits significantly from the rising dividend income produced by the 40 stocks in the portfolio. The dividend income has risen every year since we introduced the strategy at the end of 2009.

Owning Dividend Diamonds is still one of the best ways we know to get a "raise in pay" on a regular basis. The strategy has offered solid growth and rising income since we introduced it.

Back in 2010 and 2011 we were still reporting composite performance of all accounts we managed within a particular strategy. We were using Schwab Performance Technologies software to calculate those performance reports. According to our records, Dividend Diamonds total return for 2010 was 15.93%. In 2011 it was 4.44%. That was a year when many stock markets around the world were down double-digits for the year.

We have not reported composite performance since 2011. We now report performance to each account holder for their specific accounts using Orion Advisors Performance Report app. We use one account in the strategy as the "model account" and continuously rebalance all the other accounts to be as closely invested to the model as we can. Our Model Dividend Diamonds account has averaged 8.83% annual time weighted return from December 31, 2011 through July 14, 2017, net of all fees.

Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old. Our promise for this strategy has always been to "provide market like returns with significantly lower volatility than the S&P 500".

We feel like we have kept that promise, even though Mendocino significantly underperformed in 2015 and 2016. We kept the portfolio hedged and missed most of the upside in stocks during those year. We were hedged in anticipation of that volatility we were looking for.

The longer term performance for Mendocino is solid. For example, we have managed an account for one of our clients continuously from August 11, 1998 through July 14, 2017. The average annual time weighted return is 5.89% per annum, net of all management fees. The return for the S&P 500 is 6.50% per annum over those same 19 years (without any management fees).

One's first reaction might be to say, "I would have been better of investing in the S&P 500 index". That would be true if you had invested in a very low cost ETF and if you had the stomach to buy it and hold it through all the ups and downs; including multiple stock market crashes.

We are still looking for the investor who actually did that! We know many who tried, but got shaken out of the market by the violent moves up and down.

Mendocino's return was accomplished while rarely being more than 60% invested in stocks. It was accomplished with volatility that was far and away less than that of the overall stock market. We believe it has been a "sleep well at night" strategy.

This year-to-date that same managed account is up 6.75%, net of all management fees.

During 2017 we have taken a page out of the Dividend Diamonds playbook for Mendocino. That is, we are focusing more and more on stocks that offer rising dividends.

We have not moved entirely in that direction. We still want to own pure growth stocks in Mendocino. For example the #1 performer in the strategy since inception is Facebook (FB). Dividend Diamonds can't own Facebook because it doesn't pay a dividend.

We would like to achieve a balance of about 70% allocation to high yield and/or rising dividend stocks and 30% to pure growth stocks.

As of this writing we have about a 25% allocation to cash in the Mendocino strategy. We also have an allocation of about 9% to hedges that will protect on the downside if we do get a correction.

We are entering the season when they normally happen, if they are going to happen at all.

We think a correction might be approaching, bearing in mind that we have been wrong before. Frankly we hope it happens and will consider it to be a buying opportunity to get the rest of that cash to work and lift the hedges.

We are not bearish about stocks in any way at this time. We think that any correction of 5 to 7% will get bought in a hurry by managers and investors shopping for bargains. A correction of that magnitude will take most U.S. stock indexes back to their 200 day moving averages. They should be met there by a buying frenzy--if a correction happens at all.

As for "Sell in May and Go Away", Tom Bowley, of Stockcharts.com, wrote the following on his blog today:

I believe the true "go away" period is from the July 17 close to the September 27 close.  This period has been difficult and it begins at Monday's close.  Over the past 67 years on the S&P 500, this much shorter two month and ten day period has risen 37 times.  The average return during this 71 day period is -0.42%.  The annualized return has been -2.18%.  While that might not seem like much, it's actually more than 11 percentage points beneath the average annual return of approximately 9% that the S&P 500 has enjoyed since 1950.
Here is potentially the biggest problem.  When we've seen big moves on the S&P 500 from July 17th to September 27th in the past, they've generally been downside moves.  The S&P 500 has moved +/- 10% or more 11 times during this period since 1950 and 8 of those moves have been declines.  Here are the eight awful summers:
1957:  -12.41%
1966:  -10.31%
1974:  -22.31%
1981:  -13.86%
1990:  -18.11%
1998:  -11.97%
2001:  -16.13%
2011:  -10.69%
So clearly this is the time of summer - and the year - when the stock market has the tendency to underperform.  And from the above, you can see that the underperformance can be quite severe certain years.  While I believe the long-term viability of the current bull market is sound, we did break out to an S&P 500 all-time high close on Friday with a negative divergence present on the weekly chart - a sign of slowing upside momentum:


==The last time we saw momentum slowing like this on the weekly chart was in 2015.  Shortly thereafter, the S&P 500 dropped from 2135 to 1870 in two months!  Perhaps it's a coincidence, but note that the highs were established in July 2015 and the ensuing weakness occurred in August and September - two notoriously bearish summer months that we're now approaching.
Will we see a repeat?  Stay tuned.....
If the correction happens Mendocino will be a buyer of the dip!

All the best,
 
PAUL KRSEK,
CEO
5TQ CAPITAL, LLC
595 Coombs Street, Napa, Ca, 94559
(707) 224-1340 Main

And people still let these fools manage their hard earned money?!?!?!

Just tell us it's a prank! Please!

This letter actualy say they are not competent nor lucky, most of the time and a plain low cost index funds would have been better than their strategy by 25% over the last 20 years! On top of that, they keep trying to time the market and sit on pile of cash!!
"The real reason this blog exists, is simply to save the entire human race from destroying itself through overconsumption of its own habitat"

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Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #464 on: July 17, 2017, 11:42:17 PM »
Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old.

Ha, I grew up in Mendocino County, which is not very far from Napa County where these guys are from.  Any idea why they call it the Mendocino strategy?

As far as i can tell, the real Mendocino strategy is 1) Grow lots of weed. 2) Sell it.

steveo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #465 on: July 18, 2017, 01:25:40 AM »
Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old.

Ha, I grew up in Mendocino County, which is not very far from Napa County where these guys are from.  Any idea why they call it the Mendocino strategy?

As far as i can tell, the real Mendocino strategy is 1) Grow lots of weed. 2) Sell it.

This sounds like a good ER plan. My wife has an aversion to drugs though. Still you can't let women hold you back.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #466 on: July 18, 2017, 07:16:00 AM »
Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old.

Ha, I grew up in Mendocino County, which is not very far from Napa County where these guys are from.  Any idea why they call it the Mendocino strategy?

As far as i can tell, the real Mendocino strategy is 1) Grow lots of weed. 2) Sell it.

This sounds like a good ER plan. My wife has an aversion to drugs though. Still you can't let women hold you back.

That's just, like, her opinion man.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #467 on: July 18, 2017, 10:09:13 AM »
And people still let these fools manage their hard earned money?!?!?!

Just tell us it's a prank! Please!

This letter actualy say they are not competent nor lucky, most of the time and a plain low cost index funds would have been better than their strategy by 25% over the last 20 years! On top of that, they keep trying to time the market and sit on pile of cash!!

That's a bizarre correspondence to actually read. "Hey, we're not very good at this. But we're confident we'll do better this next time!" Like 4 or 5 times they said they missed it and under-performed, and that their fees weren't worth it.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #468 on: July 19, 2017, 09:02:46 AM »
New top today.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #469 on: July 19, 2017, 09:44:15 AM »
New top today.

Yes, but when will it be "in"? (i.e. the market goes down substantially from here and stays below this top for an extended period of time)

I turns out predicting that is hard :(

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #470 on: July 19, 2017, 10:03:52 AM »
New top today.

Yes, but when will it be "in"? (i.e. the market goes down substantially from here and stays below this top for an extended period of time)

I turns out predicting that is hard :(

Naw, pr'dictin's easy. I pr'dict today. Y'all be eatin' them purty little words later!

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #471 on: July 19, 2017, 11:09:07 AM »
As a philosophical exercise, how far off does a "top" prediction need to be before it's just plain wrong? Since the March peak that started this thread as the supposed top, the S&P has gone up 4.47% according to Google Finance. In comparison to a typical bear market drop of ~25% (annualized), or the much-touted average S&P returns of 10%, I'd say being off by almost 5% is significant, and I'm confident stating that the OP was wrong.

However, if the market only went up another 1% after such a claim, the claimant could defend their assertion as being "close enough".

So, what do you think? How close would someone have to be? Is it a valuation thing, or a time thing? Or is it more black and white to you - if they didn't get it exactly right, it's exactly wrong?

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #472 on: July 19, 2017, 11:20:49 AM »


However, if the market only went up another 1% after such a claim, the claimant could defend their assertion as being "close enough".


Yes, stock market gurus are annoying that way.

If the market doubles, pays out loads of dividends then crashes back to below where it is now over the next 5 years, they'll still come out of the woodwork claiming they were right.

They are quite a dishonourable bunch.  Aiming to deceive and mislead the naive.

dreadmoose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #473 on: July 19, 2017, 11:28:03 AM »
So, what do you think? How close would someone have to be? Is it a valuation thing, or a time thing? Or is it more black and white to you - if they didn't get it exactly right, it's exactly wrong?

This is why I always want the prediction that the OP makes to include an action, if it's stated that someone should get out of the market then back in at a certain threshold then it's easy to compare it.

I believe this is why noone learns any lessons from this, we're incredible at justifying our own plans no matter how far off they are. I find this most often when people sell a house and talk only about the final sale price minus the initial buy price (ignoring commissions, mortgage interest paid, let alone opportunity cost).

Just starting on my FIRE journey, hopefully posting here creates accountability and eventually lowers my very anti-mustachian life habits.

Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #474 on: July 19, 2017, 01:23:48 PM »
I believe this is why noone learns any lessons from this, we're incredible at justifying our own plans no matter how far off they are. I find this most often when people sell a house and talk only about the final sale price minus the initial buy price (ignoring commissions, mortgage interest paid, let alone opportunity cost).

Same as a addicted gambler will tell you that they won $300 but won't tell you they lost $2000 the day before. 

DavidAnnArbor  -->  That newletter--seriously?!  >:(   "Here's why we didn't do as well and all the complicated reasons you should keep trusting us."  Man...  At least they state, "bearing in mind that we have been wrong before".  That's where anyone with a brain should just stop reading.
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Re: Top is in
« Reply #475 on: July 19, 2017, 01:53:34 PM »
I believe this is why noone learns any lessons from this, we're incredible at justifying our own plans no matter how far off they are. I find this most often when people sell a house and talk only about the final sale price minus the initial buy price (ignoring commissions, mortgage interest paid, let alone opportunity cost).

Same as a addicted gambler will tell you that they won $300 but won't tell you they lost $2000 the day before. 

DavidAnnArbor  -->  That newletter--seriously?!  >:(   "Here's why we didn't do as well and all the complicated reasons you should keep trusting us."  Man...  At least they state, "bearing in mind that we have been wrong before".  That's where anyone with a brain should just stop reading.

Reminds me of this scene from the Wolf of Wall Street:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM6exo00T5I

"Name of the game - move the money from your client's pocket, into your pocket".
Frugalite in training.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #476 on: July 19, 2017, 02:02:34 PM »
I got on that newsletter back in 2009 in the depths of the market crash. I heard about this money management company that did really well invested in gold. I questioned my passive index market strategy. In the end I didn't change anything, I just continued to buy more stock market index funds.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #477 on: July 19, 2017, 02:40:44 PM »
S&P is approaching 2,500

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #478 on: July 20, 2017, 01:26:31 AM »
S&P is approaching 2,500

Only part way through earnings and so far they look pretty good.. I could see us hitting 2500 this earnings season... (famous last words..:)..)

Cache Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #479 on: July 20, 2017, 05:14:38 AM »
As a philosophical exercise, how far off does a "top" prediction need to be before it's just plain wrong? Since the March peak that started this thread as the supposed top, the S&P has gone up 4.47% according to Google Finance. In comparison to a typical bear market drop of ~25% (annualized), or the much-touted average S&P returns of 10%, I'd say being off by almost 5% is significant, and I'm confident stating that the OP was wrong.

However, if the market only went up another 1% after such a claim, the claimant could defend their assertion as being "close enough".

So, what do you think? How close would someone have to be? Is it a valuation thing, or a time thing? Or is it more black and white to you - if they didn't get it exactly right, it's exactly wrong?

There is no right or wrong.  Just lucky or unlucky.



thorstach

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Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #481 on: July 24, 2017, 08:19:14 PM »

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #482 on: July 24, 2017, 10:23:59 PM »
Republican congress won't be able to pass a federal budget nor raise the debt limit. What a surprise volatility is going to rise.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #483 on: July 24, 2017, 11:05:41 PM »
Republican congress won't be able to pass a federal budget nor raise the debt limit. What a surprise volatility is going to rise.

I don't keep up with current events, but seriously?  Don't they have control of both houses and the white house?  What are they, the Keystone Cops of government?
Frugalite in training.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #484 on: July 25, 2017, 08:19:11 AM »
Wait, is today the new top?
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dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #485 on: July 25, 2017, 08:20:09 AM »
Republican congress won't be able to pass a federal budget nor raise the debt limit. What a surprise volatility is going to rise.

I don't keep up with current events, but seriously?  Don't they have control of both houses and the white house?  What are they, the Keystone Cops of government?

When you have a slim majority, no opposition support and half of your conference is batshit crazy, it's hard to get things done.

Wait, is today the new top?

I think so... dammit. When is top in? This thread is never going to end if the top isn't in!

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #486 on: July 25, 2017, 10:13:34 AM »
Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

I'm beginning to think that's what's going on - his secret superpower is to drive the stock market in the opposite direction, so whenever it's looking like fear is winning over greed, he publicly states that it's all downhill from here, and the market subsequently goes up! He must be the superhero that advised Bruce Wayne and Professor Xavier. Use your powers for good, thorstach!

MrStash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #487 on: July 25, 2017, 01:00:07 PM »
I literally can't believe this thread is still going. lol

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #488 on: July 25, 2017, 02:33:49 PM »
It's really pretty uncanny.  After weeks or months of silence, OP repeats his "the top is in" call and within 48 hours the market spikes.

Call it again, thorstach.  Daddy needs a new pair of shoes.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #489 on: July 25, 2017, 07:41:47 PM »


Thanks for keeping this going long enough for me to use my meme, which I thought of way back when the last Gladiator meme was posted.

oohooh made it better
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 07:57:03 PM by Radagast »

MrStash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #490 on: July 26, 2017, 09:27:29 AM »
On that note, top is in again today and I have a confession to make. It's a little off topic but it just feels right here.

On June 6th I came into a landfall when we sold our old house. Bought the new house with a super low % VA loan with nothing down and we figured we'd invest the equity from the old house. All is well, all principles are intact. We had 60k designated as investments. So there I sit, the stock genius that I am, wondering what to do. Surely, the pork chop to canned fat ratio is just too high right now. I'll wait. I'll wait some more. Well, since I've been waiting the S&P500 increased 1.77% which on 60k would be a $1062 gain.

So in honor of the thousand dollars I lost by analyzing the pork chop to canned fat ratio for two months, I decided that I'm punching the 60k in this week. Yay me.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #491 on: July 27, 2017, 09:34:45 AM »
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #492 on: July 27, 2017, 10:17:17 AM »
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.


sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #493 on: July 27, 2017, 10:22:59 AM »
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

I don't think it works unless thorstach does it.  I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #494 on: July 27, 2017, 10:23:21 AM »
You get a new top! And you get a new top! Every day gets a new top!


Cookie78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #495 on: July 27, 2017, 10:27:57 AM »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #496 on: July 27, 2017, 10:50:11 AM »
Since I'm feeling nitpicky, the top has been in 3 times this month already.  Solon was right on the 19th since we had a bear market for the rest of the week. 

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #497 on: July 27, 2017, 10:55:22 AM »
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

I don't think it works unless thorstach does it.  I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Damn, I think you're right. I totally jinxed it.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #498 on: July 27, 2017, 11:00:59 AM »
Let's back test this. 

Day this thread was started:

S&P 500 April 11th - $2357

S&P 500 Today - $2473
Frugalite in training.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #499 on: July 27, 2017, 11:02:57 AM »
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

I don't think it works unless thorstach does it.  I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Damn, I think you're right. I totally jinxed it.