Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 127483 times)

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1150 on: November 10, 2017, 12:58:10 PM »
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 


.... I <3 data!~
conclusion: poor (and potentially negative) correlation between thortstach's calling the top and future market performance. To analyze more completely we'd have to decide what's a reasonable temporal duration following each prediction of "the top".  I suggest 1 week, though 1 month could also be appropriate. 
SP500 becomes in teh unput variable and % change (to standardize the response) over our given time interval becomes the response variable.  Date of prediction then drops out entirely and we can run a simple regression.
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anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1151 on: November 10, 2017, 01:27:47 PM »
Minions,

Darkness gathers and the storm draws near, come closer and heed my call.

When the light shines upon our way, let us be glad and thankful. The current goldilocks environment will continue to bring us great joy and pride, for the party has only just begun. Oh, we will ascend above the tops of the clouds, scale the utmost heights of Mount Zaphon, and sit enthroned like the most high.

Do not celebrate, lest we forget, the source of all lights is also the fountain of darkness, and the beast stirs in the shadows. Aggregated hours has rebounded, wages will follow. Housing boom has accelerated, not only in the land of the free, but also in the land of the rising sun, which hadn't happened in many many moons. In a euphoric haze many have thrown caution and reason into the winds; adorned themselves in glitters, willingly drank from the Lethe and marched ever closer towards Phlegethon. Yes minions, I speak of the land of bubbles, where dreams and hopes go to die; the market as a whole might have already crossed the line (cant tell, need q4 data)!

Be vigilant and hold strong, many (failed) timers sold early so we could make the gains at their expense, do not let their losses be in vain. Our thoughts and prayers are with them, may they see the errors in their ways and hold our bags when the time comes.

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1152 on: November 10, 2017, 04:30:39 PM »

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

That can only mean the top is truely in, if he calls it, he jinxes it and the market goes up to new highs, if he stays silent, the market must be about to tank

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1153 on: November 10, 2017, 06:02:47 PM »

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

That can only mean the top is truely in, if he calls it, he jinxes it and the market goes up to new highs, if he stays silent, the market must be about to tank

He's the S&P groundhog

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1154 on: November 11, 2017, 01:10:02 PM »

ps. frankly I am surprised our dear thorstach didn't post yesterday, given that it was the first "sizeable" drop in awhile

That can only mean the top is truely in, if he calls it, he jinxes it and the market goes up to new highs, if he stays silent, the market must be about to tank

well it's certainly possible. even though all indicators appear quite positive right now, i will concede that my method would not have saved me from the crashes of 2011 and 1998. best of luck (to us of course).

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1155 on: November 11, 2017, 07:23:10 PM »
I think this might be it!

boarder42

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1156 on: November 12, 2017, 09:23:53 AM »
I think this might be it!

I hope so. Would be about perfect timing for me and my projected fire dates to buy cheaper over the next few years before we 🔥
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TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1157 on: November 12, 2017, 12:05:58 PM »
I think this might be it!

I hope so. Would be about perfect timing for me and my projected fire dates to buy cheaper over the next few years before we 🔥

Yeah, it would actually be pretty great for me if we had a crash.
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JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1158 on: November 12, 2017, 12:34:48 PM »
I think this might be it!

I hope so. Would be about perfect timing for me and my projected fire dates to buy cheaper over the next few years before we 🔥

Yeah, it would actually be pretty great for me if we had a crash.

I'm not too excited or worried either way, my only concern is that Trump wouldn't handle a market crash well and could pull some stunts that do lasting damage

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1159 on: November 13, 2017, 07:56:34 AM »
I would worry; Trump will focus on other things besides the SP once it starts going down.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1160 on: November 15, 2017, 07:48:13 AM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1161 on: November 15, 2017, 07:56:08 AM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1162 on: November 15, 2017, 07:57:42 AM »
Missed the top, it's never coming back. Can't believe it. Luckily still have a chance to sell all before it drops to 0.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1163 on: November 15, 2017, 10:06:19 AM »
Missed the top, it's never coming back. Can't believe it. Luckily still have a chance to sell all before it drops to 0.

I remember visiting my Parents back in the UK in about 2010 or so and the Dow had a shock drop of about 500 points. My Dad said.. "why don't you pull all your money out now before you have nothing left?"

Needless to say that didn't happen..:)

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1164 on: November 15, 2017, 11:27:29 AM »
I remember visiting my Parents back in the UK in about 2010 or so and the Dow had a shock drop of about 500 points. My Dad said.. "why don't you pull all your money out now before you have nothing left?"

Needless to say that didn't happen..:)

Luckily you are getting another chance now before you REALLY lose it!!!!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1165 on: November 15, 2017, 11:59:05 AM »
I remember visiting my Parents back in the UK in about 2010 or so and the Dow had a shock drop of about 500 points. My Dad said.. "why don't you pull all your money out now before you have nothing left?"

Needless to say that didn't happen..:)

Luckily you are getting another chance now before you REALLY lose it!!!!

I know right?..:)

marielle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1166 on: November 15, 2017, 01:25:52 PM »
Just bought $2500 of VTSMX shares. Can't invest anymore this year in tax sheltered accounts (no 401k)!

Oops, wrong thread.

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1167 on: November 15, 2017, 02:47:44 PM »
It's feeling like nothing I do can make money for the last four days. Kind of like an inverse 1990's.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1168 on: November 15, 2017, 06:16:49 PM »
It's feeling like nothing I do can make money for the last four days. Kind of like an inverse 1990's.

Do you mean as investing in the market ?

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1169 on: November 15, 2017, 07:33:07 PM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

I hope your right and it drops at least until friday, which payday so can pour more in to the market.

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1170 on: November 16, 2017, 06:06:23 AM »
Crash. It's happening.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1171 on: November 16, 2017, 06:12:18 AM »
Crash. It's happening.
Thanks for the tip!!!!!
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boarder42

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1172 on: November 16, 2017, 07:58:54 AM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

I hope your right and it drops at least until friday, which payday so can pour more in to the market.

so are you

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A-boat-guy
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dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1173 on: November 16, 2017, 11:18:23 AM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

I hope your right and it drops at least until friday, which payday so can pour more in to the market.

so are you

Ab-oat-guy
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A-boat-guy

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1174 on: November 16, 2017, 11:49:00 AM »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1175 on: November 16, 2017, 11:58:31 AM »
Top is in!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1176 on: November 16, 2017, 12:35:58 PM »
If the Senate votes against the tax overhaul (with the individual mandate repeal I sure hope they do) then the top may very well be in.

If I keep saying the top is in I know I'm likely to be wrong and it will keep going up..:)

Greenback Reproduction Specialist

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1177 on: November 16, 2017, 01:24:16 PM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
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frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1178 on: November 16, 2017, 01:26:15 PM »
Crashing up. Reverse bottom is in.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1179 on: November 16, 2017, 02:01:45 PM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
Nobody says “Aboot”

http://dialectblog.com/2011/03/20/canadian-raising-nobody-says-aboot/

boarder42

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1180 on: November 16, 2017, 02:31:51 PM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

I hope your right and it drops at least until friday, which payday so can pour more in to the market.

so are you

Ab-oat-guy
or
A-boat-guy

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

i had that typed in and back spaced it out haha.

BTW we're almost at a quintesential top we've only seen one of these in the last 120 years.  last time it happened... well you all know what happened then i shouldnt have to explain it. so y'all know what to do.
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DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1181 on: November 16, 2017, 02:34:46 PM »

i had that typed in and back spaced it out haha.

BTW we're almost at a quintesential top we've only seen one of these in the last 120 years.  last time it happened... well you all know what happened then i shouldnt have to explain it. so y'all know what to do.

Way ahead of you... *Grabs mayo jar and shovel*


frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1182 on: November 16, 2017, 03:01:19 PM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
Nobody says “Aboot”

http://dialectblog.com/2011/03/20/canadian-raising-nobody-says-aboot/

I have known plenty of canadians that say aboot.  They also say "eh" a lot.  They never realize they do it, and other canadians don't realize it either.

What's this aboot, eh?
You just said "aboot" and "eh".
No I didn't, eh.
Yes you did, and you just did it again!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1183 on: November 16, 2017, 03:44:33 PM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

I hope your right and it drops at least until friday, which payday so can pour more in to the market.

so are you

Ab-oat-guy
or
A-boat-guy

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

i had that typed in and back spaced it out haha.

BTW we're almost at a quintesential top we've only seen one of these in the last 120 years.  last time it happened... well you all know what happened then i shouldnt have to explain it. so y'all know what to do.

Yes we do.  That would be to do exactly what we've been doing.  Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1184 on: November 16, 2017, 03:52:03 PM »
Damn it, thorstach must have called a top on another thread or whispered it under his breath or something, so much for my discount

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1185 on: November 16, 2017, 05:21:24 PM »
The S&P is down 1.25% from Nov 7, where's thorstach? Give us some love, man!

Shhh!  Don't wake him, I've got $8k I need to drop into the market soon and don't want him to call a top and jinx my discount that's materializing at the moment

I hope your right and it drops at least until friday, which payday so can pour more in to the market.

so are you

Ab-oat-guy
or
A-boat-guy

I'm a Boatguy... specifically an old dirty boatguy aka DBG


anyway market is up so I won't be getting bargain pricing tonight when my paycheck hits my TSP. 
« Last Edit: November 16, 2017, 05:23:52 PM by aboatguy »

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1186 on: November 16, 2017, 06:22:43 PM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
Nobody says “Aboot”

http://dialectblog.com/2011/03/20/canadian-raising-nobody-says-aboot/

I have known plenty of canadians that say aboot.  They also say "eh" a lot.  They never realize they do it, and other canadians don't realize it either.

What's this aboot, eh?
You just said "aboot" and "eh".
No I didn't, eh.
Yes you did, and you just did it again!

Sorry but you Americans say it weird, eh?  Ah-bahwt rather than about.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1187 on: November 16, 2017, 06:38:29 PM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
Nobody says “Aboot”

http://dialectblog.com/2011/03/20/canadian-raising-nobody-says-aboot/

I have known plenty of canadians that say aboot.  They also say "eh" a lot.  They never realize they do it, and other canadians don't realize it either.

What's this aboot, eh?
You just said "aboot" and "eh".
No I didn't, eh.
Yes you did, and you just did it again!

Sorry but you Americans say it weird, eh?  Ah-bahwt rather than about.

I say it like uh bout.  Like a bout of off topic posts about grammar.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1188 on: November 17, 2017, 12:09:16 AM »
Can't believe I missed all 24 pages of this epic thread.  Major FOMO.  Now that I’m finally here, for sure, the top is in

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1189 on: November 17, 2017, 03:27:48 AM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
Nobody says “Aboot”

http://dialectblog.com/2011/03/20/canadian-raising-nobody-says-aboot/

I have known plenty of canadians that say aboot.  They also say "eh" a lot.  They never realize they do it, and other canadians don't realize it either.

What's this aboot, eh?
You just said "aboot" and "eh".
No I didn't, eh.
Yes you did, and you just did it again!

Followed by "oh sorry eh"

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A:
"Hey guys can you please get out of the pool?"
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talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1190 on: November 17, 2017, 07:18:27 AM »
For all you Canadians, wasn't your top a while ago, before the oil bust?

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1191 on: November 17, 2017, 07:45:00 AM »
For all you Canadians, wasn't your top a while ago, before the oil bust?
Nope.  Most of the time the TSX is pretty tightly correlated with the SP500.  NOt always, but very often
It's pretty much the top here, too, with an all-time high about a week ago.  For now.  Top is in?
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tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1192 on: November 17, 2017, 09:15:37 AM »
Alas, poor thorstach! I knew him, Horatio: a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy....

Where be your gibes now? your gambols? your songs? your top predictions, your flashes of merriment, that were wont to set the table on a roar? Not one now, to mock your own grinning? quite chap-fallen?
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dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1193 on: November 17, 2017, 11:00:40 AM »
For all you Canadians, wasn't your top a while ago, before the oil bust?
Nope.  Most of the time the TSX is pretty tightly correlated with the SP500.  NOt always, but very often
It's pretty much the top here, too, with an all-time high about a week ago.  For now.  Top is in?

Is that when it's denominated in CAD or USD?  Or in other words, does the TSX skyrocket in Canadian dollars when the USD goes way up?

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1194 on: November 17, 2017, 11:05:46 AM »
Alas, poor thorstach! I knew him, Horatio: a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy....

Where be your gibes now? your gambols? your songs? your top predictions, your flashes of merriment, that were wont to set the table on a roar? Not one now, to mock your own grinning? quite chap-fallen?

+1 for Hamlet

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1195 on: November 17, 2017, 01:54:05 PM »
Blame Canada !  from South Park

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ybI9ZnE1Hc

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1196 on: November 18, 2017, 09:58:50 AM »

Or maybe Canadian - Aboat-guy

Lol that one gets my vote : )

I remember back when my son was in kindergarten, one of his vocabulary words was "about" and I kept trying to get him to pronounce it "aboot" in class lol... He wouldn't do it : /
Nobody says “Aboot”

http://dialectblog.com/2011/03/20/canadian-raising-nobody-says-aboot/

They certainly did in Newfoundland in the 1980s. Haven't been back to see if it still sounds that way.
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1197 on: November 19, 2017, 02:00:58 PM »
David Swensen believes market valuations are high, consequently Yale has 32% of its endowment in cash/fixed income 1 year long treasuries. This 32% is up from 15% in 2008/2009 where liquidity was used to buy equities.

Top is in.

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-david-swensen

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1198 on: November 19, 2017, 04:17:57 PM »
David Swensen believes market valuations are high, consequently Yale has 32% of its endowment in cash/fixed income 1 year long treasuries. This 32% is up from 15% in 2008/2009 where liquidity was used to buy equities.

Top is in.

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-david-swensen

The top is in whenever the market participants decide it's in.  The index price is set by buyers and sellers, right?

So this looks like a Carl Icahn-style power play, an attempt to move the market for personal profit.  Dave Swenson has no idea how high the market can go, but he's betting that it will go down and then he's telling everyone who will listen that it will go down, in an attempt to MAKE it go down.  All he has to do is convince enough people that he is right, and he becomes right.  It's classic market manipulation, the opposite of the old pump-and-dump con.  "Trash and cash", maybe?

Screw that guy.  And Carl Icahn, too, while we're at it.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1199 on: November 19, 2017, 04:37:11 PM »
It's classic market manipulation, the opposite of the old pump-and-dump con.  "Trash and cash", maybe?

Screw that guy.  And Carl Icahn, too, while we're at it.

Don't forget thorstach, he hasn't hinted at what he has done with his own money, so i am forced to assume he also already sold out of the market and is spreading the fear in hopes that the market drops, unless we hear otherwise from him of course