Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 934143 times)

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4900 on: August 08, 2019, 06:17:27 PM »
I keep about 40% in fixed income ... because TOPS are a real thing.

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4901 on: August 08, 2019, 06:31:30 PM »
We are around 30% bonds now I believe, with a goal to be 40% within the next year. Of our stocks we are 60% VTSAX and 40% VTIAX, or whatever the closest equivalent is in the retirement plan.

We were pretty close to 100% equities up until recently and it is getting close to our FI goal and reading about the reverse glidepath that changed things.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4902 on: August 08, 2019, 08:25:04 PM »
So we run 75/25 in FIRE but we have 40% of our spend coming from rent, plus pensions will start in 2 and 4 years respectively.

All of our Stocks are either VTSAX or Fidelity Russell 1000 .. so almost the same thing.

OK, so whats "wrong" with having no international stock exposure??

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4903 on: August 08, 2019, 09:00:50 PM »

Iím sure some are, but I donít think itís a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesnít mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

Iím definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

Thanks.  Not bragging because my personal mix is still way below 100% VTSAX and I'm ok with that because I had tolerable volatility (although I do intend to do a rising glide path now that I'm FIRE)

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

I've got a no-cash version of the golden butterfly (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/) but I plan to spend down the gold and treasuries first for living expenses, and not rebalance into them.  So it's a real slow glidepath (say 12.5 years to 100% equities assuming a flat market).

I'm not really opposed to cash as a rule, but the good thing is that I can always buy more if interest rates get nice.  That's of course market timing, but it'll only hurt me if stocks are way down when interest rates go up and I want more cash (shouldn't they be high if the fed is raising rates?  Honestly, this is a weak point in my strategy but I'm also OK with staying low-cash the backtesting of low-cash).
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 09:03:54 PM by dragoncar »

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4904 on: August 09, 2019, 03:09:08 AM »

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

I've got a no-cash version of the golden butterfly (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/) but I plan to spend down the gold and treasuries first for living expenses, and not rebalance into them.  So it's a real slow glidepath (say 12.5 years to 100% equities assuming a flat market).

I'm not really opposed to cash as a rule, but the good thing is that I can always buy more if interest rates get nice.  That's of course market timing, but it'll only hurt me if stocks are way down when interest rates go up and I want more cash (shouldn't they be high if the fed is raising rates?  Honestly, this is a weak point in my strategy but I'm also OK with staying low-cash the backtesting of low-cash).

I think a lot of it has to do with your outlook.  You're betting against a stagflation scenario from what I can tell.  I personally think that sort of scenario is a bit more likely than it has been in the recent past given huge amounts of cash stimulus out there.  I wouldn't bet on it, though.  The 500 lb gorilla everyone is tiptoeing around, at least in the developed world, is aging populations and the crash in birth rates.  Aging populations with few kids don't consume as much stuff.

effigy98

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4905 on: August 09, 2019, 08:24:22 AM »
I'm doing Golden Butterfly with leverage and so far it is a champ in this environment. UGLD and TMF are pulling the rope big time, while UPRO is getting hit.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4906 on: August 09, 2019, 10:10:01 AM »

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.

I've got a no-cash version of the golden butterfly (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/) but I plan to spend down the gold and treasuries first for living expenses, and not rebalance into them.  So it's a real slow glidepath (say 12.5 years to 100% equities assuming a flat market).

I'm not really opposed to cash as a rule, but the good thing is that I can always buy more if interest rates get nice.  That's of course market timing, but it'll only hurt me if stocks are way down when interest rates go up and I want more cash (shouldn't they be high if the fed is raising rates?  Honestly, this is a weak point in my strategy but I'm also OK with staying low-cash the backtesting of low-cash).

I think a lot of it has to do with your outlook.  You're betting against a stagflation scenario from what I can tell.  I personally think that sort of scenario is a bit more likely than it has been in the recent past given huge amounts of cash stimulus out there.  I wouldn't bet on it, though.  The 500 lb gorilla everyone is tiptoeing around, at least in the developed world, is aging populations and the crash in birth rates.  Aging populations with few kids don't consume as much stuff.

Well, the Millennials now officially outnumber the Baby Boomers, I think we'll be fine.  Immigrants have also (always) been a source of population growth.  In economic terms, population growth is usually a good thing, and often a very good thing.  Which is why the whole idea of building a wall or other super restrictive immigration policies are so stupid.  Not politically stupid (clearly), but definitely economically stupid.   

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4907 on: August 09, 2019, 10:39:03 AM »
Yeah I often feel selfish for not stimulating the economy by not spending everything I have and not doing my part to maintain the population...

Then again, friends of ours has just had their petulant teenage boy get arrest for "minor in possession".. Then I think.. F that...:)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4908 on: August 09, 2019, 03:58:27 PM »
Volatility top is in?

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4909 on: August 10, 2019, 09:29:10 AM »
I keep about 40% in fixed income ... because TOPS are a real thing.

TIPS TOPS IS IN!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4910 on: August 10, 2019, 11:56:02 AM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4911 on: August 11, 2019, 10:59:37 AM »
. . . At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. . . .
Tresselball top was in almost 10 years ago.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4912 on: August 12, 2019, 06:17:49 AM »
We're basically 100% US equities.

35% VTSAX
57% VINIX (best low cost option through 401k)
8% VFIAX (best low cost option through HSA)

However, most of the businesses on the US stock exchange do sufficient international business that I'm not too worried about needing to diversify, and we have a long time until retirement, so I see no reason to move anything into bonds at the moment.

35andFI

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4913 on: August 12, 2019, 09:21:41 AM »
We're basically 100% US equities.

35% VTSAX
57% VINIX (best low cost option through 401k)
8% VFIAX (best low cost option through HSA)

However, most of the businesses on the US stock exchange do sufficient international business that I'm not too worried about needing to diversify, and we have a long time until retirement, so I see no reason to move anything into bonds at the moment.

This is very similar to what I am doing and for the reasons why I am doing it.

68% VTSAX (Total U.S. market fund held in taxable and IRA)
30% WFSPX (S&P 500 fund held in 401k)
2% SPTM (Total U.S. market ETF held in HSA)

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4914 on: August 12, 2019, 03:32:01 PM »
99 pages of top on the wall.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4915 on: August 12, 2019, 05:15:18 PM »
99 pages of top on the wall.

Neunundneunzig luftballons float by!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4916 on: August 12, 2019, 05:44:03 PM »
Yay, Argentina top is in.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4917 on: August 12, 2019, 06:12:41 PM »
99 pages of top on the wall.

Neunundneunzig luftballons float by!

On the same day Russia reports a nuclear missile accident...

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4918 on: August 12, 2019, 07:28:01 PM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.


EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4919 on: August 12, 2019, 10:18:38 PM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

But let's be realistic, the reverse glide-path approach just highlights that we ultimately spend less as we get old and can maximize our beneficiaries' inheritance by holding equities while we coast off slowly into the night.  It's a perfectly legitimate strategy, but I prefer not to think about it, since I'm going to be young and vibrant forever!  I've also upped my current spending a bit (YOLO) since my inheritors will benefit from me using this strategy on their behalf :)

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4920 on: August 13, 2019, 02:57:11 AM »
Yay, Argentina top is in.

Not for the first time in history either if I recall correctly. Didn't they go bankrupt once before?

habaneroNorway

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4921 on: August 13, 2019, 03:02:11 AM »

Not for the first time in history either if I recall correctly. Didn't they go bankrupt once before?

Mine on once. From Wikipedia:

Americas    Argentina   1827   Default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1890   Default. Panic of 1890[20]
Americas    Argentina   1915   Provincial default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1930   Provincial default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1982   Default. Latin American debt crisis[20]
Americas    Argentina   1988Ė1989   Internal debt default. Latin American debt crisis[20]
Americas    Argentina   2001   Default. Following years of instability, the Argentine economic crisis (1999Ė2002) came to a head, and a new government announced it could not meet its public debt obligations.[20]
Americas    Argentina   2005Ė2016   Argentine debt restructuring.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4922 on: August 13, 2019, 03:04:50 AM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

But let's be realistic, the reverse glide-path approach just highlights that we ultimately spend less as we get old and can maximize our beneficiaries' inheritance by holding equities while we coast off slowly into the night.  It's a perfectly legitimate strategy, but I prefer not to think about it, since I'm going to be young and vibrant forever!  I've also upped my current spending a bit (YOLO) since my inheritors will benefit from me using this strategy on their behalf :)

Perfectly fine thing to do. "Flexibility" in early retirement to me means having more than enough and using the excess to increase generational wealth.  Although I kinda sorta think I won't be retiring early anyway.   

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4923 on: August 13, 2019, 12:19:50 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4924 on: August 13, 2019, 12:53:39 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..
Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4925 on: August 13, 2019, 12:55:19 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..
Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

Or maybe they are just incompetent.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4926 on: August 13, 2019, 01:02:41 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..
Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

Or maybe they are just incompetent.

Trump is incompetent as a president but his cronyís are surely profiting off this volatility

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4927 on: August 13, 2019, 01:06:43 PM »
It took 99 pages, but the thread has finally turned into a political discussion.

Thread top is in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4928 on: August 13, 2019, 01:22:31 PM »
It took 99 pages, but the thread has finally turned into a political discussion.

Thread top is in.

Itís not over until we bring up the nazis

Godwins top is in

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4929 on: August 13, 2019, 01:41:32 PM »



I'll post this, but I hope it doesn't end the thread.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4930 on: August 13, 2019, 01:43:42 PM »
Wow, I did Nazi that coming.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4931 on: August 13, 2019, 04:42:34 PM »
Wow, I did Nazi that coming.
Use a pun, go to prison.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4932 on: August 13, 2019, 05:26:51 PM »
Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Turkey Leg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4933 on: August 13, 2019, 09:30:03 PM »
Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Space top was April 21, 1981.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4934 on: August 13, 2019, 09:38:18 PM »
Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Space top was April 21, 1981.

Unless the space bottom is in

effigy98

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4935 on: August 14, 2019, 11:26:05 AM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4936 on: August 14, 2019, 11:37:35 AM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

effigy98

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4937 on: August 14, 2019, 11:40:38 AM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

Not saying go out of the market and sit idle. Recommend making sure you are well diversified for each condition (deflation, inflation, recession, stagflation?) and reduce risk based on your personal situation.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4938 on: August 14, 2019, 11:42:09 AM »
Per Investopedia, between 1945 and 2009 the average expansion lasted 58 months, so saying a recession is coming with 24 months is... not an impressive prediction, in my opinion.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4939 on: August 14, 2019, 11:51:58 AM »
The top may in fact be in... for a while.

FIRE@50

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4940 on: August 14, 2019, 11:54:58 AM »
Per Investopedia, between 1945 and 2009 the average expansion lasted 58 months, so saying a recession is coming with 24 months is... not an impressive prediction, in my opinion.
You are reading this thread and looking for an impressive prediction?

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4941 on: August 14, 2019, 01:11:24 PM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

Not saying go out of the market and sit idle. Recommend making sure you are well diversified for each condition (deflation, inflation, recession, stagflation?) and reduce risk based on your personal situation.

Or, I can just keep plowing money into the market during a downturn and come out smelling like roses on the other side. 

Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over. 

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4942 on: August 14, 2019, 01:54:47 PM »
The VIX is in.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4943 on: August 14, 2019, 02:08:53 PM »
Bye bye 3025.. See you again in the not too distant future we hope..:)

catorbe

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4944 on: August 14, 2019, 02:16:12 PM »


Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4945 on: August 14, 2019, 02:24:07 PM »


Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

But couldn't a sub-top peak be the end of a dip? Or is it going to be one big dip with small interrupting peaks from now on? But wait, if it never comes back is the dip still a dip? Anyway, I think we're looking at more of a gradual cliff scenario.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4946 on: August 14, 2019, 02:51:37 PM »


Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

But couldn't a sub-top peak be the end of a dip? Or is it going to be one big dip with small interrupting peaks from now on? But wait, if it never comes back is the dip still a dip? Anyway, I think we're looking at more of a gradual cliff scenario.

Weíll see. Iíve been waiting for a sale for a long time. Weíre probably just being teased. Heck, today didnít even get close to popping the circuit breakers.

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4947 on: August 14, 2019, 04:16:33 PM »
Iíve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4948 on: August 14, 2019, 04:35:34 PM »
3....

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4949 on: August 14, 2019, 04:35:43 PM »
2...