Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 131259 times)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1350 on: December 06, 2017, 12:37:44 PM »
I sold everything and bought Bitcoin.

Do we need a "Bitcoin: Top is in" thread?  This thread doesn't say specifically for what the top is in anyway.

The top is in for Dutch tulips.  It's been in since 1637.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp

Actually the bottom is in for the Dutch tulip market. I've been buying them like crazy waiting for the rebound.

Good call, better stock up while prices are low!!  $10k tulips are just around the corner! 

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1351 on: December 06, 2017, 01:38:06 PM »
No, shhh.  He is legend.

+1 for the ATHF reference. "One convenient locations...In Africa."
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Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1352 on: December 06, 2017, 03:24:09 PM »
I sold everything and bought Bitcoin.

Do we need a "Bitcoin: Top is in" thread?  This thread doesn't say specifically for what the top is in anyway.

Top is in for Bitcoin!! Lol. It's over $13,600 this hour.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1353 on: December 06, 2017, 03:45:07 PM »
I sold everything and bought Bitcoin.

Do we need a "Bitcoin: Top is in" thread?  This thread doesn't say specifically for what the top is in anyway.

Top is in for Bitcoin!! Lol. It's over $13,600 this hour.

To be fair, I thought the top was in when it hit $5,500.  Astounded it's gone this high this fast and many people think the party won't end.  Maybe it'll hit $30k first, but it will drop like a rock soon. 

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1354 on: December 06, 2017, 03:48:57 PM »
I sold everything and bought Bitcoin.

Do we need a "Bitcoin: Top is in" thread?  This thread doesn't say specifically for what the top is in anyway.

Top is in for Bitcoin!! Lol. It's over $13,600 this hour.

To be fair, I thought the top was in when it hit $5,500.  Astounded it's gone this high this fast and many people think the party won't end.  Maybe it'll hit $30k first, but it will drop like a rock soon.

When it goes up 15% in a day just because everybody wants to ride it higher I think it's safe to say it's a bubble.  It may go to $100k, but the higher it goes the worse the crash will be. 

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1355 on: December 06, 2017, 03:58:28 PM »
I definitely did not think it would go up like this. When my money hits a certain dollar amount that I predetermined when I bought, I'm pulling 75% of my money out. Considering it went up over $600 in the last hour, I might not have to wait too long. I bet that it will crash before it gets to my amount though. That would be my luck. Luckily I only put in $200 so I won't be losing a fortune...just a car payment. Lol

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1356 on: December 07, 2017, 01:31:28 AM »
I definitely did not think it would go up like this. When my money hits a certain dollar amount that I predetermined when I bought, I'm pulling 75% of my money out. Considering it went up over $600 in the last hour, I might not have to wait too long. I bet that it will crash before it gets to my amount though. That would be my luck. Luckily I only put in $200 so I won't be losing a fortune...just a car payment. Lol

How quickly can you liquidate these days?  I haven't been following it, but I hear transaction fees are now pretty significant

LAGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1357 on: December 07, 2017, 05:06:15 AM »
I wasn't too worried about the inevitable BitCoin crash, but the more crazy it gets the more I get concerned that some knucklehead bank has gone long on it with debt (cubed) that's backstopped by every money market account in America or some such nonsense. That's how it seems every contagion crash has gotten it's start lately.

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1358 on: December 07, 2017, 08:50:58 AM »
I definitely did not think it would go up like this. When my money hits a certain dollar amount that I predetermined when I bought, I'm pulling 75% of my money out. Considering it went up over $600 in the last hour, I might not have to wait too long. I bet that it will crash before it gets to my amount though. That would be my luck. Luckily I only put in $200 so I won't be losing a fortune...just a car payment. Lol

How quickly can you liquidate these days?  I haven't been following it, but I hear transaction fees are now pretty significant

I think it takes 5-7 days to liquidate. And yes the fees are high,. So I factored in the fees when I bought a few months ago. For example, I knew I didn't want to spend more than $200, so I actually only bought about $180 of Bitcoin, the remaining $20 was for the fees. same when I sell- I made a deal with myself that when my number hits $1000, I'm taking $750 out. Of course I won't actually recieve $750 due to the fees.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 08:57:09 AM by Apple_Tango »

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1359 on: December 07, 2017, 08:59:05 AM »
But back to the topic...Top is in.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1360 on: December 07, 2017, 09:33:04 AM »
Question based on the last few comments noting that Bitcoin will certainly crash soon.  (And sorry that this is not a meme!)

Why do we believe that we're not smarter than the market when it comes to VTSAX (and thus shouldn't try to call it or time it), but we do think we're smarter than the market when it comes to Bitcoin?  For the people predicting Bitcoin's fall, I'm guessing the idea is that there has to be a lot of speculation built into the Bitcoin rise.  But why not also true of VTSAX? 

To be clear, I am all VTSAX and no Bitcoin, but I am curious that we feel smugly smart about not being able to predict market generally (so buy and hold VTSAX), but equally smug about not investing in Bitcoin.   And this is meant more as a psychological question than as one analyzing the differences between VTSAX and Bitcoin.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1361 on: December 07, 2017, 09:35:44 AM »
VTSAX is based on the economic effect of the companies.

Bitcoin: Value of an exchange mechanism.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1362 on: December 07, 2017, 10:04:30 AM »
If no one agrees to buy your VTSAX shares from you (i.e. value is now $0, maybe even less than $0 if you have to pay to unload), then you still retain ownership stake in companies that generate revenue and profits, and you are entitled to those profits.

If no one agrees to buy your BTC from you, then what are you left with?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1363 on: December 07, 2017, 10:17:51 AM »
But back to the topic...Top is in.

Yes, but it was never specified the top of what or even what kind of top we're talking about.  We're talking about the top of bitcoin.  We might go with dreidels tomorrow. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1364 on: December 07, 2017, 10:19:04 AM »
If no one agrees to buy your BTC from you, then what are you left with?

A story to tell folks you are panhandling from? ;)

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1365 on: December 07, 2017, 10:20:04 AM »
I definitely did not think it would go up like this. When my money hits a certain dollar amount that I predetermined when I bought, I'm pulling 75% of my money out. Considering it went up over $600 in the last hour, I might not have to wait too long. I bet that it will crash before it gets to my amount though. That would be my luck. Luckily I only put in $200 so I won't be losing a fortune...just a car payment. Lol

How quickly can you liquidate these days?  I haven't been following it, but I hear transaction fees are now pretty significant

I think it takes 5-7 days to liquidate. And yes the fees are high,. So I factored in the fees when I bought a few months ago. For example, I knew I didn't want to spend more than $200, so I actually only bought about $180 of Bitcoin, the remaining $20 was for the fees. same when I sell- I made a deal with myself that when my number hits $1000, I'm taking $750 out. Of course I won't actually recieve $750 due to the fees.

I didn't realize the fees were so high.  That really changes the math for betting on bitcoin.  The question to me is how do you get in on processing transactions?

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1366 on: December 07, 2017, 10:28:26 AM »
The real question is how much can the system pay-out? Bank's can't pay everybody their money in cash/gold; can't imagine the Bitcoin generating exchange mecanism has the money behind it to cash out everyone who wants to either. Or can you only get out if someone gets in?

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1367 on: December 07, 2017, 10:34:05 AM »
So the top was in. I'm onto dreidels next. My initial $180 investment (??)from September reached $1000 around 11:45 ish today, I sold $700 (because I chickened out and didn't want to sell $750 like I originally planned). Then right after I sold, it dropped in 5 minutes by about $3000. Top is in. Definitely, maybe. I'm recieving $689 after fees. I definitely profited in this situation. . The math only really works well if you buy super low, sell super high...like most other things. it's a volatile game out there.. 

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1368 on: December 07, 2017, 10:51:03 AM »
The real question is how much can the system pay-out? Bank's can't pay everybody their money in cash/gold; can't imagine the Bitcoin generating exchange mecanism has the money behind it to cash out everyone who wants to either. Or can you only get out if someone gets in?

This is true for all transactions, though.  There isn't anywhere NEAR enough cash and gold in in the world for everyone to cash out of real estate, or the stock market, or even their checking accounts.  Yet all of those things still have value. 

This is the great mystery of the modern financial system.  It's all based on debt.  Your checking account doesn't have money in it, it has debt in it.  Debt that the bank owes to you in exchange for you giving them cash up front, but they have of course already spent that cash somewhere else. 

I get up and go to work.  My employer issues me an electronic paycheck (they create debt to me) which is deposited into my electronic bank account (which becomes bank debt to me in exchange for my employer's debt to me).  I buy goods and services with a credit card (I create debt to the cc company) and then I pay the cc bill electronically (I transfer the bank's debt to me to pay off my debt to the cc company).  At no point in this cycle is there actual "money" involved, just promises and IOUs, and yet it drives the entire engine of our economy on both the production and consumption sides.  Debt IS money, because it is spendable and transferable.  The amount of cash in circulation is far far less than the amount of money/debt in circulation, which is far far less than the amount of "wealth" stored in fixed assets like real estate. 

Everything is a market.  Everything has a market price at any given moment that is determined by what the financial system can pay for it.  Gold doesn't matter.  Cash doesn't matter.  All that matters is liquidity and control of debt.  Realizing this is what allows people like Donald Trump to become billionaires without having any actual money of their own.  They just find ways to exchange debt, no actual capital required.

But it can all come crashing down at any time, of course.  We've seen it before and I'm sure we'll see it again. 

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1369 on: December 07, 2017, 10:59:29 AM »
The real question is how much can the system pay-out? Bank's can't pay everybody their money in cash/gold; can't imagine the Bitcoin generating exchange mecanism has the money behind it to cash out everyone who wants to either. Or can you only get out if someone gets in?

This is true for all transactions, though.  There isn't anywhere NEAR enough cash and gold in in the world for everyone to cash out of real estate, or the stock market, or even their checking accounts.  Yet all of those things still have value. 

This is the great mystery of the modern financial system.  It's all based on debt.  Your checking account doesn't have money in it, it has debt in it.  Debt that the bank owes to you in exchange for you giving them cash up front, but they have of course already spent that cash somewhere else. 

I get up and go to work.  My employer issues me an electronic paycheck (they create debt to me) which is deposited into my electronic bank account (which becomes bank debt to me in exchange for my employer's debt to me).  I buy goods and services with a credit card (I create debt to the cc company) and then I pay the cc bill electronically (I transfer the bank's debt to me to pay off my debt to the cc company).  At no point in this cycle is there actual "money" involved, just promises and IOUs, and yet it drives the entire engine of our economy on both the production and consumption sides.  Debt IS money, because it is spendable and transferable.  The amount of cash in circulation is far far less than the amount of money/debt in circulation, which is far far less than the amount of "wealth" stored in fixed assets like real estate. 

Everything is a market.  Everything has a market price at any given moment that is determined by what the financial system can pay for it.  Gold doesn't matter.  Cash doesn't matter.  All that matters is liquidity and control of debt.  Realizing this is what allows people like Donald Trump to become billionaires without having any actual money of their own.  They just find ways to exchange debt, no actual capital required.

But it can all come crashing down at any time, of course.  We've seen it before and I'm sure we'll see it again.

But isn't money based on either the country of issue, or the bank that issues it? Until Bitcoin is connected to someone who CAN pay-out... Though amusing to think of this in real term scenarios: Hey Sol: I'll trade you my 5$ bill for 10$, then you trade it for 15$... The creator of the Bitcoin magically created an insane amount of liquidity... from nothing.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1370 on: December 07, 2017, 11:01:39 AM »
The real question is how much can the system pay-out? Bank's can't pay everybody their money in cash/gold; can't imagine the Bitcoin generating exchange mecanism has the money behind it to cash out everyone who wants to either. Or can you only get out if someone gets in?

This is true for all transactions, though.  There isn't anywhere NEAR enough cash and gold in in the world for everyone to cash out of real estate, or the stock market, or even their checking accounts.  Yet all of those things still have value. 

This is the great mystery of the modern financial system.  It's all based on debt.  Your checking account doesn't have money in it, it has debt in it.  Debt that the bank owes to you in exchange for you giving them cash up front, but they have of course already spent that cash somewhere else. 

I get up and go to work.  My employer issues me an electronic paycheck (they create debt to me) which is deposited into my electronic bank account (which becomes bank debt to me in exchange for my employer's debt to me).  I buy goods and services with a credit card (I create debt to the cc company) and then I pay the cc bill electronically (I transfer the bank's debt to me to pay off my debt to the cc company).  At no point in this cycle is there actual "money" involved, just promises and IOUs, and yet it drives the entire engine of our economy on both the production and consumption sides.  Debt IS money, because it is spendable and transferable.  The amount of cash in circulation is far far less than the amount of money/debt in circulation, which is far far less than the amount of "wealth" stored in fixed assets like real estate. 

Everything is a market.  Everything has a market price at any given moment that is determined by what the financial system can pay for it.  Gold doesn't matter.  Cash doesn't matter.  All that matters is liquidity and control of debt.  Realizing this is what allows people like Donald Trump to become billionaires without having any actual money of their own.  They just find ways to exchange debt, no actual capital required.

But it can all come crashing down at any time, of course.  We've seen it before and I'm sure we'll see it again.

There's actually a lot of good to that.  Debt is elastic and that helps keep the value of a dollar fairly stable (unlike bitcoin) in an economy that constantly varies.  It also allows the money to keep moving through the economy instead of sitting dead under your mattress.  The FDIC, NCUA, and other countries' equivalents are a decent hedge for the little guy.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1371 on: December 07, 2017, 11:06:01 AM »
A really interesting video on how the financial system works:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1372 on: December 07, 2017, 11:07:32 AM »
The real question is how much can the system pay-out? Bank's can't pay everybody their money in cash/gold; can't imagine the Bitcoin generating exchange mecanism has the money behind it to cash out everyone who wants to either. Or can you only get out if someone gets in?

This is true for all transactions, though.  There isn't anywhere NEAR enough cash and gold in in the world for everyone to cash out of real estate, or the stock market, or even their checking accounts.  Yet all of those things still have value. 

This is the great mystery of the modern financial system.  It's all based on debt.  Your checking account doesn't have money in it, it has debt in it.  Debt that the bank owes to you in exchange for you giving them cash up front, but they have of course already spent that cash somewhere else. 

I get up and go to work.  My employer issues me an electronic paycheck (they create debt to me) which is deposited into my electronic bank account (which becomes bank debt to me in exchange for my employer's debt to me).  I buy goods and services with a credit card (I create debt to the cc company) and then I pay the cc bill electronically (I transfer the bank's debt to me to pay off my debt to the cc company).  At no point in this cycle is there actual "money" involved, just promises and IOUs, and yet it drives the entire engine of our economy on both the production and consumption sides.  Debt IS money, because it is spendable and transferable.  The amount of cash in circulation is far far less than the amount of money/debt in circulation, which is far far less than the amount of "wealth" stored in fixed assets like real estate. 

Everything is a market.  Everything has a market price at any given moment that is determined by what the financial system can pay for it.  Gold doesn't matter.  Cash doesn't matter.  All that matters is liquidity and control of debt.  Realizing this is what allows people like Donald Trump to become billionaires without having any actual money of their own.  They just find ways to exchange debt, no actual capital required.

But it can all come crashing down at any time, of course.  We've seen it before and I'm sure we'll see it again.

But isn't money based on either the country of issue, or the bank that issues it? Until Bitcoin is connected to someone who CAN pay-out... Though amusing to think of this in real term scenarios: Hey Sol: I'll trade you my 5$ bill for 10$, then you trade it for 15$... The creator of the Bitcoin magically created an insane amount of liquidity... from nothing.

It's more along the line of I'll trade you my $5 bill for 10000 Somali Shillings, then you trade it tomorrow for $15.  Money is just what people come together and agree is money.  Gold wouldn't be worth that nearly as much if it didn't have millenia of history of people agreeing that it was valuable.  Major national currencies do benefit a lot from the knowledge that that country is going to do what they can to make sure your dollar/yen/euro/rupee is going to stay stable and be able to buy you what you want in the future.  It still comes back to just convention, though. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1373 on: December 07, 2017, 11:09:55 AM »
The creator of the Bitcoin magically created an insane amount of liquidity... from nothing.

Well we are creating bitcoin from an insane amount of electricity.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1374 on: December 07, 2017, 11:12:28 AM »
Sol's post made me curious, so I tried looking up the total debt in the various parts of our economy:
US Mortgage debt: $14.5T
Equities: $28T (US), $23T (Asia), $14T (Europe) = $67T (includes africa/australia)
Bond Market: $102T

Other forms of debt (e.g. credit cards) are small potatoes, only a few more $T.  I've probably left out some large ones though.

At a rough approximation there's ~$200T in money owed from one party to another ("debt") circling around the globe primarily in the forms of electronic "IOUs." Lots of this of course is double, triple or quintuple counted as the cash paid for my mortgage is put to work in bonds or other loans.

Interestingly Mr Google tells me there's only $1.2T in actual US currency floating around (~1% of the total held in the US stocks & Bonds + mortgage debt)

...makes you think

*(oh, and the top is in)
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sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1375 on: December 07, 2017, 11:16:32 AM »
Major national currencies do benefit a lot from the knowledge that that country is going to do what they can to make sure your dollar/yen/euro/rupee is going to stay stable and be able to buy you what you want in the future.

I'd even go so far as to say it's the ONLY thing that creates value.  All money, including cash, is only valued against the expectation of what you think you can get for it in the future.  In the case of debt created out of thin air, which is most of the money in circulation, the expectation is that national economy behind it will continue to create value, because its people will continue to work and produce goods and services. 

If everyone in the economy were immediately FIREd and we all stopped working, there would be no value being created, and thus no debt issued against that future value, but also no more future value for current debt.  Cash is king, right?  Everything else is a whispered promise.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1376 on: December 07, 2017, 11:18:45 AM »
The creator of the Bitcoin magically created an insane amount of liquidity... from nothing.

Well we are creating bitcoin from an insane amount of electricity.

The electricity used to "create" bitcoin is roughly analogous to the paper and ink used to "create" cash.  It's a raw materials cost only barely correlated with the value of the end product.  Printing a $1 bill costs just as much as printing a $1,000 bill.  The value of the bill is totally made up.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1377 on: December 07, 2017, 11:19:17 AM »
But nobody is behind Bitcoin yet! What the hell are they basing the evaluation of the coin? R-C's comment of electricity is intriguing though. Does it cost 20k worth of equipment + Electricity to Mine a bitcoin? Then that would make sense.... until we hit the maximum number of bitcoins allowed.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1378 on: December 07, 2017, 11:28:48 AM »
The electricity used to "create" bitcoin is roughly analogous to the paper and ink used to "create" cash.  It's a raw materials cost only barely correlated with the value of the end product.  Printing a $1 bill costs just as much as printing a $1,000 bill.  The value of the bill is totally made up.

That's fine as long as the "paper" bill costs $0.01, but if the "paper" costs $10/bill you wouldn't be using it for anything less than $10 in value. Bitcoin is using more power than many countries and the power usage is climbing.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1379 on: December 07, 2017, 11:33:01 AM »
Our penny would prove you wrong. Same with our nickel I believe.

Top is coming in 2018: Reports that Bitcoin could go up to 60k!

Since the stock market has hit it's top, I guess I'll move to Bitcoins..

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1380 on: December 07, 2017, 11:52:36 AM »
Sol's post made me curious, so I tried looking up the total debt in the various parts of our economy:
US Mortgage debt: $14.5T
Equities: $28T (US), $23T (Asia), $14T (Europe) = $67T (includes africa/australia)
Bond Market: $102T

Other forms of debt (e.g. credit cards) are small potatoes, only a few more $T.  I've probably left out some large ones though.

At a rough approximation there's ~$200T in money owed from one party to another ("debt") circling around the globe primarily in the forms of electronic "IOUs." Lots of this of course is double, triple or quintuple counted as the cash paid for my mortgage is put to work in bonds or other loans.

Interestingly Mr Google tells me there's only $1.2T in actual US currency floating around (~1% of the total held in the US stocks & Bonds + mortgage debt)

...makes you think

*(oh, and the top is in)

Yep and there is an XKCD for that https://xkcd.com/980/     

Top is way past in, April ??, 2017,  haven't you been reading?  :-)

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1381 on: December 07, 2017, 12:01:01 PM »
Our penny would prove you wrong. Same with our nickel I believe.

Top is coming in 2018: Reports that Bitcoin could go up to 60k!

Since the stock market has hit it's top, I guess I'll move to Bitcoins..

We don't have pennies any more.

Canadian Ben

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1382 on: December 07, 2017, 12:02:05 PM »
Our penny would prove you wrong. Same with our nickel I believe.

Top is coming in 2018: Reports that Bitcoin could go up to 60k!

Since the stock market has hit it's top, I guess I'll move to Bitcoins..

We don't have pennies any more.

It took a long time to get rid of them, and they were losing money for quite a long time.

afuera

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1383 on: December 07, 2017, 01:17:24 PM »
Sol's post made me curious, so I tried looking up the total debt in the various parts of our economy:
US Mortgage debt: $14.5T
Equities: $28T (US), $23T (Asia), $14T (Europe) = $67T (includes africa/australia)
Bond Market: $102T

Other forms of debt (e.g. credit cards) are small potatoes, only a few more $T.  I've probably left out some large ones though.

At a rough approximation there's ~$200T in money owed from one party to another ("debt") circling around the globe primarily in the forms of electronic "IOUs." Lots of this of course is double, triple or quintuple counted as the cash paid for my mortgage is put to work in bonds or other loans.

Interestingly Mr Google tells me there's only $1.2T in actual US currency floating around (~1% of the total held in the US stocks & Bonds + mortgage debt)

...makes you think

*(oh, and the top is in)

Yep and there is an XKCD for that https://xkcd.com/980/     

Top is way past in, April ??, 2017,  haven't you been reading?  :-)

Zoomed in and saw this:
"The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it" - Henry David Thoreau

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Projected FIRE date: 2025
Journal.

marielle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1384 on: December 07, 2017, 02:37:17 PM »
Sol's post made me curious, so I tried looking up the total debt in the various parts of our economy:
US Mortgage debt: $14.5T
Equities: $28T (US), $23T (Asia), $14T (Europe) = $67T (includes africa/australia)
Bond Market: $102T

Other forms of debt (e.g. credit cards) are small potatoes, only a few more $T.  I've probably left out some large ones though.

At a rough approximation there's ~$200T in money owed from one party to another ("debt") circling around the globe primarily in the forms of electronic "IOUs." Lots of this of course is double, triple or quintuple counted as the cash paid for my mortgage is put to work in bonds or other loans.

Interestingly Mr Google tells me there's only $1.2T in actual US currency floating around (~1% of the total held in the US stocks & Bonds + mortgage debt)

...makes you think

*(oh, and the top is in)

Yep and there is an XKCD for that https://xkcd.com/980/     

Top is way past in, April ??, 2017,  haven't you been reading?  :-)

Zoomed in and saw this:


There's plenty of silly things in that chart. For example, the annual cost of a bird being $200? I got a good laugh out of that.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1385 on: December 08, 2017, 01:52:51 AM »
Major national currencies do benefit a lot from the knowledge that that country is going to do what they can to make sure your dollar/yen/euro/rupee is going to stay stable and be able to buy you what you want in the future.

I'd even go so far as to say it's the ONLY thing that creates value.  All money, including cash, is only valued against the expectation of what you think you can get for it in the future.  In the case of debt created out of thin air, which is most of the money in circulation, the expectation is that national economy behind it will continue to create value, because its people will continue to work and produce goods and services. 

If everyone in the economy were immediately FIREd and we all stopped working, there would be no value being created, and thus no debt issued against that future value, but also no more future value for current debt.  Cash is king, right?  Everything else is a whispered promise.

Always fun to revisit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chartalism

Davids

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1386 on: December 08, 2017, 06:43:59 AM »
Looks like today may be great day for markets. THE TOP IS NOT IN.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1387 on: December 08, 2017, 08:16:43 AM »
Looks like today may be great day for markets. THE TOP IS NOT IN.

Oh but the top is in.  Who spins first?


aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1388 on: December 08, 2017, 03:20:23 PM »
2,651.50 a closing new peak, however, its not the top!
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 03:23:04 PM by aboatguy »

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1389 on: December 08, 2017, 04:46:59 PM »
I have TOO much money now so clearly that was the top..:)

phil22

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1390 on: December 08, 2017, 06:21:50 PM »
The creator of the Bitcoin magically created an insane amount of liquidity... from nothing.

Well we are creating bitcoin from an insane amount of electricity.

The electricity used to "create" bitcoin is roughly analogous to the paper and ink used to "create" cash.  It's a raw materials cost only barely correlated with the value of the end product.  Printing a $1 bill costs just as much as printing a $1,000 bill.  The value of the bill is totally made up.

that analogy doesn't quite fit.  the electricity cost of mined bitcoin generally approaches the market price.  this is what prevents people from creating bitcoin willy-nilly.  the cost of materials to create a $20 bill is far less in comparison.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1391 on: December 08, 2017, 09:11:39 PM »
Electricity cost of mined bitcoin generally approaches the market price.  this is what prevents people from creating bitcoin willy-nilly.  the cost of materials to create a $20 bill is far less in comparison.

That argument made more sense before a single bitcoin was worth $18,000.

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1392 on: December 08, 2017, 09:42:18 PM »
Electricity cost of mined bitcoin generally approaches the market price.  this is what prevents people from creating bitcoin willy-nilly.  the cost of materials to create a $20 bill is far less in comparison.

That argument made more sense before a single bitcoin was worth $18,000.

Because everything is better with numbers.

Right now* 1,800 new bitcoins are generated per day.
A recent estimate I found is that bitcoin mining around the world is currently using 90M kilowatt hours/day.
So 50k kilowatt hours per coin.  At $0.10/kilowatt hour, that works out to $5,000 of electricity per bitcoin created.
As I write this miners can turn around and sell that same bitcoin for $16,000. By the time you're reading this, who knows that that price will be...

*In 2020 that will drop to 900 new bitcoins per day and it'll continue to decrease going into the future.
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phil22

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1393 on: December 09, 2017, 11:40:14 AM »
Electricity cost of mined bitcoin generally approaches the market price.  this is what prevents people from creating bitcoin willy-nilly.  the cost of materials to create a $20 bill is far less in comparison.

That argument made more sense before a single bitcoin was worth $18,000.

i said "generally approaches" and this is still true, especially relative to the cost of making paper bills.  the difficulty just jumped 18% on Dec 4th, which means if you want to mine blocks at the same rate you have to plug in 18% more mining rigs just to keep up.  and the price just fell toward $14k ("the top is in"), yet the difficulty won't change again for 10 days.

you can see in the difficulty chart from the last few years that the difficulty fell a few times.  this happens because mining generally happens right on the edge of profitability.  after miners drop out the difficulty falls, eventually making it profitable to plug those miners back in again.
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=3years

if you look at this chart, you can clearly see a stagnation in difficulty in 2015, when the price also stagnated:
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=all


TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1394 on: December 10, 2017, 09:11:30 AM »
Over/Under for Monday the Dow going up 400 points. Place your bets.
I may have overestimated. Looking like a 200-250 point range gain for the Dow.

Among other things, why are you paying attention to the Dow instead of the S&P 500.

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tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1395 on: December 11, 2017, 11:31:03 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing. 
Frugalite in training.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1396 on: December 11, 2017, 11:32:01 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.


#FAKEnews Top was in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1397 on: December 12, 2017, 09:59:29 AM »
ALERT:  I have added some XIV to my portfolio for strategic reasons.  Unfortunately, this ensures the top is in for now

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1398 on: December 12, 2017, 10:30:25 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

 You think that's confusing? Did you read this,
"Right now* 1,800 new bitcoins are generated per day.
A recent estimate I found is that bitcoin mining around the world is currently using 90M kilowatt hours/day.
So 50k kilowatt hours per coin.  At $0.10/kilowatt hour, that works out to $5,000 of electricity per bitcoin created.
As I write this miners can turn around and sell that same bitcoin for $16,000. By the time you're reading this, who knows that that price will be...

*In 2020 that will drop to 900 new bitcoins per day and it'll continue to decrease going into the future."
  :-0

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1399 on: December 12, 2017, 11:01:27 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.