Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1363895 times)

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6000 on: February 26, 2020, 05:48:57 AM »
My friends, fear is back:

"The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the marketís ďfear gauge,Ē spiked more than 11% to close at 27.85, the highest close since Dec. 2018. The VIX, a measure of the 30-day implied volatility of U.S. stocks, crossed 30 at its session high on Tuesday as coronavirus fears rattled the markets."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/dow-futures-bounce-slightly-as-wall-street-attempts-comeback-from-monster-2-day-slide.html

Uh oh, fear was so high in Dec 2018 that it caused the market to only go up 30% in 2019... wait, what?

LOL it seems the people that come here and say they were right had forgot about Oct 2018 already.

What are we at half the drop of Oct 2018?  Earnings will be a reality check.  Unemployment is still low.  Coronavirus will be a thing of the past in 3 months when we hit the warm months.  Top isn't in yet!
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 05:54:27 AM by wienerdog »

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6001 on: February 26, 2020, 06:37:23 AM »
My friends, fear is back:

"The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the marketís ďfear gauge,Ē spiked more than 11% to close at 27.85, the highest close since Dec. 2018. The VIX, a measure of the 30-day implied volatility of U.S. stocks, crossed 30 at its session high on Tuesday as coronavirus fears rattled the markets."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/dow-futures-bounce-slightly-as-wall-street-attempts-comeback-from-monster-2-day-slide.html

Uh oh, fear was so high in Dec 2018 that it caused the market to only go up 30% in 2019... wait, what?

LOL it seems the people that come here and say they were right had forgot about Oct 2018 already.

What are we at half the drop of Oct 2018?  Earnings will be a reality check.  Unemployment is still low.  Coronavirus will be a thing of the past in 3 months when we hit the warm months.  Top isn't in yet!

You take that attitude elsewhere.

Top is, and will always be, in.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6002 on: February 26, 2020, 07:04:18 AM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6003 on: February 26, 2020, 07:20:55 AM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

You're right.  Why are we worrying over pocket change? 

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6004 on: February 26, 2020, 07:22:19 AM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

"Bottom Is In" thread was started on Feb. 9, 2018. Maybe you missed it since it has since fallen towards the "Bottom" of the threads.

coffeefueled

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6005 on: February 26, 2020, 07:39:48 AM »
I hope this sale continues until my bi-weekly 401k contribution hits tomorrow. Stay away Thorstach, don't wreck the sale!
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 07:53:34 AM by coffeefueled »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6006 on: February 26, 2020, 07:46:18 AM »
I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

Correction, you had a $2M portfolio, lost $600k, and now have a $1.4M portfolio.  It's a lot easier to lose $600k when you have $2M left (a 23% loss).  And that 600k is now 43% of the $1.4M you have left...  lots of mental games, especially if the market is still falling and smart people are telling you the Fed can't do anything about supply side disruption...  Top is in!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6007 on: February 26, 2020, 10:18:18 AM »
I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

Correction, you had a $2M portfolio, lost $600k, and now have a $1.4M portfolio.  It's a lot easier to lose $600k when you have $2M left (a 23% loss).  And that 600k is now 43% of the $1.4M you have left...  lots of mental games, especially if the market is still falling and smart people are telling you the Fed can't do anything about supply side disruption...  Top is in!

You don't lose anything until you sell.  (Or until every company goes bankrupt which we know will happen soon since the top is in!)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6008 on: February 26, 2020, 10:23:53 AM »
Market performing a dead cat bounce today?  Feline TOP is in.

ixtap

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6009 on: February 26, 2020, 10:40:31 AM »
Market performing a dead cat bounce today?  Feline TOP is in.

The Will E. Feline seems to be on a roller coaster.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6010 on: February 26, 2020, 11:03:49 AM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

You are assuming a 30% drop AND NO RECOVERY.  Is that what you actually believe will happen?  If so, it seems foolish of you to invest in Index funds at all, since the basic idea of indexing is that the market goes up.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6011 on: February 26, 2020, 11:46:45 AM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

You are assuming a 30% drop AND NO RECOVERY.  Is that what you actually believe will happen?  If so, it seems foolish of you to invest in Index funds at all, since the basic idea of indexing is that the market goes up.

We have generally had a pretty V shaped drop and recovery so I guess it will happen that way again if it even drops 30%.   Some individual stocks never recover (Sears, Kodak, Radio Shack, Seadrill, I am looking at you) but yeah in general if the world keeps spinning, stuff eventually will come back.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6012 on: February 26, 2020, 11:51:16 AM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

You are assuming a 30% drop AND NO RECOVERY.  Is that what you actually believe will happen?  If so, it seems foolish of you to invest in Index funds at all, since the basic idea of indexing is that the market goes up.

We have generally had a pretty V shaped drop and recovery so I guess it will happen that way again if it even drops 30%.   Some individual stocks never recover (Sears, Kodak, Radio Shack, Seadrill, I am looking at you) but yeah in general if the world keeps spinning, stuff eventually will come back.

Right, but as indexers, nobody cares about individual stocks.  They literally do not matter because as they fall, other stocks roar up and replace them, and go even higher.  Indexers benefit from this continual burning away and renewal. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6013 on: February 26, 2020, 01:27:06 PM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

You are assuming a 30% drop AND NO RECOVERY.  Is that what you actually believe will happen?  If so, it seems foolish of you to invest in Index funds at all, since the basic idea of indexing is that the market goes up.

We have generally had a pretty V shaped drop and recovery so I guess it will happen that way again if it even drops 30%.   Some individual stocks never recover (Sears, Kodak, Radio Shack, Seadrill, I am looking at you) but yeah in general if the world keeps spinning, stuff eventually will come back.

Right, but as indexers, nobody cares about individual stocks.  They literally do not matter because as they fall, other stocks roar up and replace them, and go even higher.  Indexers benefit from this continual burning away and renewal.

Look, you have been warned since April 11, 2017. The top is in. Fear is up. The VIX is doing something (what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

If you have stocks or indexes or what have you youíre in trouble. There is no recovery. Nothing will ever roar back.

THE TOP IS IN

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6014 on: February 26, 2020, 01:36:33 PM »
Doesn't VIX make like vapor rub or something?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6015 on: February 26, 2020, 01:38:10 PM »
Doesn't VIX make like vapor rub or something?

Vapor rub is even more nebulous, top must be innnnnn!

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6016 on: February 26, 2020, 01:39:41 PM »
Doesn't VIX make like vapor rub or something?

VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.

The VIX traces its origin to the financial economics research of Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai. In a series of papers beginning in 1989, Brenner and Galai proposed the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility.[1][2][full citation needed]

In their papers, Brenner and Galai proposed, "[the] volatility index, to be named 'Sigma Index', would be updated frequently and used as the underlying asset for futures and options. ... A volatility index would play the same role as the market index play for options and futures on the index."[This quote needs a citation] In 1992, the CBOE hired consultant Bob Whaley to calculate values for stock market volatility based on this theoretical work.[not verified in body] Whaley utilized data series in the index options market, and provided the CBOE with computations for daily VIX levels from January 1986 to May 1992.[not verified in body]

The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future might be based. The current VIX index value quotes the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, as computed from options-based theory and current options-market data.[not verified in body]

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6017 on: February 26, 2020, 01:59:07 PM »
Doesn't VIX make like vapor rub or something?

VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.

The VIX traces its origin to the financial economics research of Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai. In a series of papers beginning in 1989, Brenner and Galai proposed the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility.[1][2][full citation needed]

In their papers, Brenner and Galai proposed, "[the] volatility index, to be named 'Sigma Index', would be updated frequently and used as the underlying asset for futures and options. ... A volatility index would play the same role as the market index play for options and futures on the index."[This quote needs a citation] In 1992, the CBOE hired consultant Bob Whaley to calculate values for stock market volatility based on this theoretical work.[not verified in body] Whaley utilized data series in the index options market, and provided the CBOE with computations for daily VIX levels from January 1986 to May 1992.[not verified in body]

The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future might be based. The current VIX index value quotes the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, as computed from options-based theory and current options-market data.[not verified in body]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...


frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6018 on: February 26, 2020, 02:04:25 PM »
You can clearly see the top of the joke arc.  Joke top is in.  It's all super serious from here on out.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6019 on: February 26, 2020, 02:05:05 PM »
Can we start calling the top of peak coronavirus yet?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6020 on: February 26, 2020, 02:16:47 PM »
You can clearly see the top of the joke arc.  Joke top is in.  It's all super serious from here on out.

Until the joke bottom is in

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6021 on: February 26, 2020, 02:48:23 PM »
Can we start calling the top of peak coronavirus yet?

I think it is crowning

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6022 on: February 26, 2020, 02:50:50 PM »
You can clearly see the top of the joke arc.  Joke top is in.  It's all super serious from here on out.

Until the joke bottom is in

Yeah, nobody wants to be the ďbottomĒ of the joke. 

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6023 on: February 26, 2020, 03:03:35 PM »
Doesn't VIX make like vapor rub or something?

VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.

The VIX traces its origin to the financial economics research of Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai. In a series of papers beginning in 1989, Brenner and Galai proposed the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility.[1][2][full citation needed]

In their papers, Brenner and Galai proposed, "[the] volatility index, to be named 'Sigma Index', would be updated frequently and used as the underlying asset for futures and options. ... A volatility index would play the same role as the market index play for options and futures on the index."[This quote needs a citation] In 1992, the CBOE hired consultant Bob Whaley to calculate values for stock market volatility based on this theoretical work.[not verified in body] Whaley utilized data series in the index options market, and provided the CBOE with computations for daily VIX levels from January 1986 to May 1992.[not verified in body]

The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future might be based. The current VIX index value quotes the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, as computed from options-based theory and current options-market data.[not verified in body]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...



Iím just mad I read the entire description of VIX looking for a joke or pun slipped in there

merula

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6024 on: February 26, 2020, 03:04:11 PM »
You can clearly see the top of the joke arc.  Joke top is in.  It's all super serious from here on out.

Until the joke bottom is in

Yeah, nobody wants to be the ďbottomĒ of the joke.

Some people do, and we shouldn't judge them for it. Unless they want to be. Then we should judge them. Um.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6025 on: February 26, 2020, 03:45:13 PM »
(what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

Roman numeral. Sooo...that's ten minus 6 I think, so 4.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6026 on: February 26, 2020, 03:54:18 PM »
Still dropping................

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6027 on: February 26, 2020, 04:18:00 PM »
Anyone look at the treasury yields? Pretty fair inversion out to 5 years.

Far worse inversion earlier this year.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6028 on: February 26, 2020, 05:56:34 PM »
THE SKY IS FALLING!!1!1!!

Oh wait, itís just a flurry

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6029 on: February 26, 2020, 06:06:35 PM »
So the Math question is on what day will the Top is in surpass the number of pages of the US stocks in free fall thread?  They only got a 6 year head start on us.

jeroly

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6030 on: February 26, 2020, 06:18:39 PM »
Has the world changed drastically since May 2019?

SPY was $275 then.   It is $314 now.

Maybe soon we will have "is this the bottom yet?" threads lol.

I really don't think the market will drop more than 30%.   That is only like $600,000 if you have a $2M portfolio.   Barely worth mentioning.

You are assuming a 30% drop AND NO RECOVERY.  Is that what you actually believe will happen?  If so, it seems foolish of you to invest in Index funds at all, since the basic idea of indexing is that the market goes up.
Of course there will be NO RECOVERY...because The Top Is In.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6031 on: February 26, 2020, 07:23:11 PM »
I'm so unconcerned by the market drop that when the bank accidentally credited me with a $293,323.09 deposit for a $29,323.09 check I gave them, I asked them to fix what they had done wrong.

Don't have someone accidentally hand you over a quarter of a million dollars every day!

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6032 on: February 26, 2020, 08:46:05 PM »
(what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

Roman numeral. Sooo...that's ten minus 6 I think, so 4.

Thanks! That had really been bothering me.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6033 on: February 26, 2020, 11:02:07 PM »
I'm so unconcerned by the market drop that when the bank accidentally credited me with a $293,323.09 deposit for a $29,323.09 check I gave them, I asked them to fix what they had done wrong.

Don't have someone accidentally hand you over a quarter of a million dollars every day!

Top bank error is in

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6034 on: February 27, 2020, 02:16:29 AM »
Anyone look at the treasury yields? Pretty fair inversion out to 5 years.

Far worse inversion earlier this year.

Ugh. The folks who spent last year screaming "Yield inversion=recession any minute now!" are going to feel vindicated if the virus causes a recession even though the virus didn't exist a year ago.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6035 on: February 27, 2020, 06:45:08 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6036 on: February 27, 2020, 06:51:51 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6037 on: February 27, 2020, 06:55:01 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Drops are fun.  It lets you know if you investment policy is correct.  ;>) I still couldn't figure out how those options worked.  If you sold today how much was it worth?

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6038 on: February 27, 2020, 06:58:27 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

I'm still laughing.

I'm also pretty early in the accumulation phase, so a drop benefits me, as long as I remain employed.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6039 on: February 27, 2020, 07:30:59 AM »

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6040 on: February 27, 2020, 07:49:27 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

I'm still laughing.

I'm also pretty early in the accumulation phase, so a drop benefits me, as long as I remain employed.
That's where I'm at. At this latest top we were at, maybe 50-60% of the end number, so a drop is actually a good thing for us.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6041 on: February 27, 2020, 08:11:29 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Wife & I combined are adding ~$10k/month in payroll deductions. BRING IT!

matchewed

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6042 on: February 27, 2020, 08:12:01 AM »
I'm in the later stages of the journey and I feel fine. Even if we need to dust off the Dow 20000 hats it'll be okay. After all we have saved up a large amount of money, currently both have jobs, live in a multifamily house that we own and rent out two apartments, are healthy. So what if there is an economic bump in the road. It'll recover. So what if the plan gets delayed by two years?

Oh and Top is in because something something.

Turkey Leg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6043 on: February 27, 2020, 08:16:18 AM »
My first correction as a retiree! #NoLongerACorrectionVirgin

Bring on dow 20,000.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6044 on: February 27, 2020, 08:16:49 AM »
(what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

Roman numeral. Sooo...that's ten minus 6 I think, so 4.

Thanks! That had really been bothering me.
No, it's not a Roman numeral.   4 would be IV, 1 less than 5.

VIX appears to be some sort of stock volatility index.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6045 on: February 27, 2020, 08:28:49 AM »
Is the options guy kicking himself in the butt yet since Top was in?

You talking about me with the March $325 puts I was holding?  My butt is sore from all the kicking.

This thread is getting not as funny as we continue to drop.   It will be interesting to see how chipper we are when we are dusting off the DOW 20,000 hats again.

Drops are fun.  It lets you know if you investment policy is correct.  ;>) I still couldn't figure out how those options worked.  If you sold today how much was it worth?

This is only week one folks.  If this is a real recession (and I'm beginning to think it will be), this is going to drag on for months...

Those options are beginning to look like a winning lottery ticket that got destroyed in the wash machine...  bought for $3.30 and now worth $22.50+.  Multiply that gain by 100(shares per contract) x 100 (contracts)...  $190,000+

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6046 on: February 27, 2020, 08:29:02 AM »
Triple VIXen top!


Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6047 on: February 27, 2020, 08:29:37 AM »
(what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

Roman numeral. Sooo...that's ten minus 6 I think, so 4.

Thanks! That had really been bothering me.
No, it's not a Roman numeral.   4 would be IV, 1 less than 5.

VIX appears to be some sort of stock volatility index.

It is definitely a Roman numeral. Like in movies. MCMXCVII

That is 1,100 minus 990 plus 105 minus 2, so 213. They use it to show you how many people worked on the movie.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6048 on: February 27, 2020, 08:34:33 AM »
(what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

Roman numeral. Sooo...that's ten minus 6 I think, so 4.

Thanks! That had really been bothering me.
No, it's not a Roman numeral.   4 would be IV, 1 less than 5.

VIX appears to be some sort of stock volatility index.

It is definitely a Roman numeral. Like in movies. MCMXCVII

That is 1,100 minus 990 plus 105 minus 2, so 213. They use it to show you how many people worked on the movie.

I'm fairly certain that MCMXCVII is 1997.

But I'm not Roman, so I could be terribly wrong. Come to think of it, I'm also not Arabic, so it's possible that I know nothing about numbers whatsoever.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6049 on: February 27, 2020, 08:41:43 AM »
(what is a VIX anyway? Iíve never figured that one out).

Roman numeral. Sooo...that's ten minus 6 I think, so 4.

Thanks! That had really been bothering me.
No, it's not a Roman numeral.   4 would be IV, 1 less than 5.

VIX appears to be some sort of stock volatility index.

It is definitely a Roman numeral. Like in movies. MCMXCVII

That is 1,100 minus 990 plus 105 minus 2, so 213. They use it to show you how many people worked on the movie.

I'm fairly certain that MCMXCVII is 1997.

But I'm not Roman, so I could be terribly wrong. Come to think of it, I'm also not Arabic, so it's possible that I know nothing about numbers whatsoever.

If MCMXCVII is 1997, then VIX is 59 - better known as, The Top.  Since VIX is only at 34, we still have a ways to go.