Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 46854 times)

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #500 on: July 27, 2017, 11:03:50 AM »
^^^ Sorry, NSFW.  Bear junk for the imminent bear market.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #501 on: July 27, 2017, 11:15:13 AM »
Maybe I should sell everything.. Man would I have lived to have called it in 2008.. And when to get back in 2009 of course :)

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #502 on: July 27, 2017, 11:25:59 AM »
Ok Thorstach...was today the top?
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Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #503 on: July 27, 2017, 11:28:51 AM »
I think so. Market is tanking now so that MUST have been it..;)

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #504 on: July 27, 2017, 01:00:25 PM »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #505 on: July 27, 2017, 01:14:46 PM »
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

Quote
Assuming I am talking to mostly value folks here, let me ask the question: How long are you going to have to wait? Possibly a while. We could be having this conversation a year from now, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49%  at 2,900, my “top” call left in the dust.

...from ^^ the link.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #506 on: July 27, 2017, 01:20:48 PM »
And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."

The S&P 500 has increased 5% since this post.
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slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #507 on: July 27, 2017, 01:43:08 PM »
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

Quote
Assuming I am talking to mostly value folks here, let me ask the question: How long are you going to have to wait? Possibly a while. We could be having this conversation a year from now, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49%  at 2,900, my “top” call left in the dust.

...from ^^ the link.

Well at I am glad Thor can admit he is wrong ...

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #508 on: July 27, 2017, 03:47:14 PM »

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #509 on: July 27, 2017, 07:27:57 PM »




The tech sector has provided more than 40% of the  S&P  500's advance
Throughout 2017, there's one acronym that investors have in particular been sinking their teeth into: FAANG.
The term stands for a quintet of the market's most pronounced highfliers:  Facebook Inc.  (FB),  Apple Inc.  (AAPL),  Amazon.com Inc.  (AMZN),  Netflix Inc.  (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL), the parent company of  Google . Together they've accounted for a huge amount of the overall market's advance, something that could leave major indexes vulnerable in the event the group turns lower.
Based on their Wednesday close, the FAANG stocks have accounted for more than a quarter of the  S&P  500's total year-to-date return (28.4%, to be exact), according to  Howard Silverblatt , senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. That calculation doesn't include the sharp decline that several of the stocks underwent on Thursday.
Each of the five stocks is up sharply thus far this year, posting gains that range from about 20% to nearly 50%. Furthermore, four of the five are among the five largest stocks in the U.S. equity market, meaning they have an outsize weight on broader moves. Together, they account for more than 10% of the  S&P  500 by market capitalization.
The benchmark  S&P  500 is up 10.6% thus far this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index , where all of the FAANG stocks trade, has climbed 18.6%. The Nasdaq -100 , which has an even more concentrated holding of the group, is up nearly 22%.
Overall, the information-technology sector has accounted for 41.6% of the  S&P  500's total return this year, per Silverblatt's data, by far the most of any group. The tech sector (XLK) itself is up 18.9%, while the consumer-discretionary sector (XLY)--where  Amazon  and  Netflix  are classified, despite their connection to the tech industry (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-you-buy-a-tech-etf-to-cash-in-on-amazon-heres-some-bad-news-2017-06-16)--is up 13.1%.
The gains in these large-cap names have raised concerns about their valuation (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-internet-stocks-hit-records-familiar-questions-about-bubbles-arise-2017-05-22), with analysts noting similarities between the current market environment and the dot-com era (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-continue-to-mirror-the-dot-com-era-in-ominous-ways-2017-06-15), when there was a bubble in tech names that, when it burst, took down the broader market.
Related:Will tech rally continue? Hedge funds say yes, but mutual funds say no (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-tech-rally-continue-hedge-funds-say-yes-but-mutual-funds-say-no-2017-06-05)
Earlier this year, the largest exchange-traded fund to track the tech sector hit an all-time high on a total-return basis (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-17-years-sp-500-tech-sector-finally-regains-lost-ground-2017-04-24), recovering the ground it lost in the wake of the dot-com era.
On Thursday, an abrupt selloff in tech shares pressured the FAANG names (except for  Facebook , which stayed higher in the wake of better-than-expected quarterly results (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2017/07/26/facebook-earnings-put-instagram-in-focus-amid-shift-in-newsfeed-ads-live-blog/)), which in turn weighed on the overall market, pressuring the broader market and dragging the  S&P  500 and Nasdaq to a close in negative territory (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-stocks-poised-to-drive-another-record-day-on-wall-street-led-by-facebook-2017-07-27).
- Ryan Vlastelica ; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
 07-27-17   1722ET

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #510 on: July 27, 2017, 07:30:54 PM »
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #511 on: July 27, 2017, 08:16:22 PM »
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #512 on: July 27, 2017, 08:38:14 PM »
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

This time for real though.
Seriously.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #513 on: July 27, 2017, 08:43:21 PM »
For those keeping score:


April 11, 2017 "The Top is in."  (S&P 500 closes at 2,353.78)

107 days later...

July 27, 2017 "The Top is in."  (S&P 500 closes at 2,475.42)





JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #514 on: July 27, 2017, 09:58:35 PM »
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.


Best.  Thread.  Ever. 

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #515 on: July 27, 2017, 11:59:27 PM »
GIF Version

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #516 on: July 28, 2017, 01:17:47 PM »
Good evening all, is top in yet? Thorstach said it would be.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #517 on: July 28, 2017, 01:41:23 PM »
Good evening all, is top in yet? Thorstach said it would be.

Haven't you been paying attention?!?! It's been in for over a day now!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #518 on: July 28, 2017, 01:44:34 PM »
One of these days he's going to be right, by pure random chance, and you're all going to eat crow.

Keep swinging, thorstach, you're bound to connect eventually.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #519 on: July 28, 2017, 07:04:28 PM »
I'm going to start making my own predictions, and I predict I will be right many more times than Thorstach.

My prediction:  Thorstach will say that the top is in.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #520 on: July 31, 2017, 10:25:31 AM »
The top will be in September 19 at 2:02 EDT. 

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #521 on: August 01, 2017, 08:41:28 AM »
DJIA needs a slight pullback followed by a further mistimed Thorstach "top is in" call, then onwards and upward beyond 22,000.  Not that it matters at all!

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #522 on: August 02, 2017, 07:49:11 AM »
Top Ver 4.0 is in.

runewell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #523 on: August 02, 2017, 07:56:09 AM »
The top will be in September 19 at 2:02 EDT.

Or was that the solar eclipse, I keep forgetting...
Please leave Dicey out of this! Have you not been paying any attention? Trolls are not welcome here!

powskier

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #524 on: August 02, 2017, 08:27:36 PM »
I've been buying all the tops for a while, and it's been working out for me.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #525 on: August 02, 2017, 10:13:39 PM »
Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

Call it again, thorstach!

Either Thorstach can't call the top, or thousands of mustachians are pouring dump truck loads of money into index funds out of spite every time he calls a top.  Maybe a bit of both :)

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #526 on: August 03, 2017, 12:21:40 AM »
Frugalite in training.

gluskap

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #527 on: August 03, 2017, 05:13:33 PM »
This thread is in!  OMG so entertaining.  My prediction the Top is never in if you're buy and hold like me.  It just keeps going up and up as long as your timeframe is long term.  Every time I get scared that maybe my strategy is too simple I just need to go back to this thread and I'll feel better knowing that the low fee index fund buy and hold strategy is still the best.

Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #528 on: August 04, 2017, 09:37:14 AM »
My new top came in today.  [GROANS.]
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MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #529 on: August 04, 2017, 10:36:09 AM »
« Last Edit: August 04, 2017, 10:41:38 AM by MrDelane »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #530 on: August 04, 2017, 11:08:40 AM »
This thread is in!  OMG so entertaining.  My prediction the Top is never in if you're buy and hold like me.  It just keeps going up and up as long as your timeframe is long term.  Every time I get scared that maybe my strategy is too simple I just need to go back to this thread and I'll feel better knowing that the low fee index fund buy and hold strategy is still the best.

The top WILL be in when the Vogons arrive. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #531 on: August 04, 2017, 11:45:03 AM »
The top WILL be in when the Vogons arrive.

And they will bring poetry, such as this Ode to Tops:

See, see the old sky
Marvel at its big puce depths.
Tell me, top do you
Wonder why the fartknocker ignores you?
Why its foobly stare
makes you feel slothlike.
I can tell you, it is
Worried by your shimateeboob facial growth
That looks like
A mold
What's more, it knows
Your torque potting shed
Smells of booger.
Everything under the big old sky
Asks why, why do I even bother?
You only charm buttstench.




courtesy of:
http://tonybaldwin.me/pages/vogon.php

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #532 on: August 04, 2017, 06:54:26 PM »

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #533 on: August 04, 2017, 08:00:29 PM »

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

The problem is you can't tell whether we are like the year 1996 or March 2000. Trying to time the market is impossible and there's nothing anyone can do based on the information you provided.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #534 on: August 04, 2017, 08:08:04 PM »
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Le Barbu

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #535 on: August 04, 2017, 09:13:00 PM »
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Maybe he was planning to retire quietly according to the 4% rule and got enligthed by Runewell's posts?
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steveo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #536 on: August 04, 2017, 10:24:59 PM »
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

respond2u

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #537 on: August 04, 2017, 11:05:36 PM »
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #538 on: August 05, 2017, 01:57:12 AM »

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.


steveo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #539 on: August 05, 2017, 02:30:38 AM »
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

I don't think bonds are going to tank though. They could go down but they won't tank. Also if stocks do tank you'd expect bonds to go up.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #540 on: August 05, 2017, 07:11:03 AM »

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Meditation and affirmations are good antidotes to this kind of stress.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #541 on: August 05, 2017, 07:34:03 AM »
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

I don't think bonds are going to tank though. They could go down but they won't tank. Also if stocks do tank you'd expect bonds to go up.

10 year Treasuries are yielding slightly less than a 5 year CD (FDIC insured) at Synchrony, or Barclays, or Ally, or Goldman Sachs, or Discover bank.
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Riff

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #542 on: August 05, 2017, 08:22:52 AM »

With This Herring

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #543 on: August 05, 2017, 10:51:39 AM »
I interpret Shiller's statement as him being worried about how a potential large market crash would affect regular investors and regular workers, not his personal finances.  I would guess that he has his personal finances set comfortably.
Because your toaster got hacked because you tried to watch porn on your blender.

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Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #544 on: August 05, 2017, 11:04:14 AM »


It's all about the top. The tip top! Cheers to many many many many more tops. :)

wenchsenior

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #545 on: August 05, 2017, 02:31:28 PM »

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Schiller has  been bellyaching about the the equity 'bubble' for at least 3 or 4 years.  It might even be longer than that (time tends to get away from me).  I just heard him as a guest on On Point, and I was cracking up because he was saying identical things to the last time I heard him as a guest on On Point, quite a few years ago.


Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #546 on: August 05, 2017, 02:51:40 PM »
Schiller has  been bellyaching about the the equity 'bubble' for at least 3 or 4 years.  It might even be longer than that (time tends to get away from me).  I just heard him as a guest on On Point, and I was cracking up because he was saying identical things to the last time I heard him as a guest on On Point, quite a few years ago.

That's how you become a market expert. Say the same dramatic stuff again and again until one day you are right....then milk that shit for a decade. ;)

UnleashHell

  • Magnum Stache
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  • climbing out of a dark hole
Re: Top is in
« Reply #547 on: August 06, 2017, 06:23:10 AM »
_____________
JTF 96

anisotropy

  • Bristles
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Re: Top is in
« Reply #548 on: August 06, 2017, 02:15:19 PM »
for those of you eagerly waiting to benefit from my wisdom:

the market breadth (usa) has narrowed since the beginning of 2017, but we still have time. hang seng on the other hand is on relatively shaky grounds. note that the usd may continue to weaken, resulting in lower "real" return even if the market rallies further, especially if you hold mostly unhedged index funds in another currency.

dividendman

  • Pencil Stache
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Re: Top is in
« Reply #549 on: August 07, 2017, 03:06:23 PM »