Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 68781 times)

L.A.S.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #150 on: May 11, 2017, 06:02:53 AM »
The top in disappearing dick picks is in.

Aw, SNAP!

Seriously..

Why isn't Carlos Danger on their board of directors already.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #151 on: May 11, 2017, 08:18:16 AM »
On a serious note, double top is in.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #152 on: May 11, 2017, 08:55:24 AM »
On a serious note, double top is in.

lol?

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #153 on: May 11, 2017, 10:05:43 AM »
For everyone cracking lame jokes, you probably ought to at least acknowledge that the dude hasn't actually been wrong yet.

I mean, he called the S&P top, and so far has been 'off' by like a tiny fraction of a percent -and the market's currently falling today. That's just a fact, isn't it? We don't trash facts here because we feel we're eventually going to be right, do we? Is that what the 'regulars' here are?

Like everyone else here, I think he has no idea what the future will bring, but jumping the gun by ripping on a still-not-wrong prediction makes a lot of you look like grade-schoolers.

At least challenge yourself to be clever (and accurate) if you're going to make fun of someone.

L.A.S.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #154 on: May 11, 2017, 10:36:59 AM »
For everyone cracking lame jokes, you probably ought to at least acknowledge that the dude hasn't actually been wrong yet.

I mean, he called the S&P top, and so far has been 'off' by like a tiny fraction of a percent -and the market's currently falling today. That's just a fact, isn't it? We don't trash facts here because we feel we're eventually going to be right, do we? Is that what the 'regulars' here are?

Like everyone else here, I think he has no idea what the future will bring, but jumping the gun by ripping on a still-not-wrong prediction makes a lot of you look like grade-schoolers.

At least challenge yourself to be clever (and accurate) if you're going to make fun of someone.

First call: "tops in" was called on April 11, with S&P at 2353.

About a month later, S and P closed at 2399 earlier this week.  Therefore, the original call at 2353 was not a top....  Or, perhaps the original call was made intentionally vague and the top was really meant to be the March 1 top, as was called on May 9th. 

The call was then changed to double top, on April 26th. 

Charting, e.g., technical analysis does not work.  Never has.  The prior price history of a stock or index does not encode any useful information about the future price movements of that stock or index, at least not in any exclusive direct sense.  The price chart of a stock or index is not  a physical thing, and therefore is not subject to physical laws or equations about its movement. 

I would say that as a practical matter, if someone is going to be an openly follow a chartists approach they had better grow a thick skin.  In all likelihood they will loose a lot of money and will suffer ridicule for being so openly foolish.

In any event, thorstach hasn't really explained what they are trying to communicate to us.  And, the jokes don't seem to be bothering them that much.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #155 on: May 11, 2017, 10:54:31 AM »
I think we're all in imminent danger.









What kind of danger, you may be asking?










Well, there's only one kind that really should worry you:













tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #156 on: May 11, 2017, 10:59:25 AM »
The call was then changed to double top, on April 26th. 

And this is the root of the ridicule - if you're allowed to simply change your initial (wrong) prediction by saying "double top!" then you will never be wrong!  Haha.  Then you can just say "triple top" at the next peak.  And "quadruple top" at the next one.  How many times does someone have to be wrong before they get called out?

I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.
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solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #157 on: May 11, 2017, 12:08:00 PM »
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.

You're the second person who has said this thread is 2 years old. But when I look at the first post, the date is April 11, 2017. What am I missing?

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #158 on: May 11, 2017, 12:10:01 PM »
I read about "charts" in "Random Walk."  Not really impressed.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #159 on: May 11, 2017, 12:19:33 PM »
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.

You're the second person who has said this thread is 2 years old. But when I look at the first post, the date is April 11, 2017. What am I missing?

Oh sorry, got confused because I was also posting to this thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/a-crash-is-coming/

Which is making basically the same predictions.  And even better I now see that it's 3 years old, not 2.  Haha.  I mean, 3 years ago we should listened.  Right?  Right!??

Or maybe, just maybe, these random internet posters don't know wtf they are talking about....
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thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #160 on: May 11, 2017, 12:23:33 PM »
The call was then changed to double top, on April 26th. 

And this is the root of the ridicule - if you're allowed to simply change your initial (wrong) prediction by saying "double top!" then you will never be wrong!  Haha.  Then you can just say "triple top" at the next peak.  And "quadruple top" at the next one.  How many times does someone have to be wrong before they get called out?

I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.


The top has been in since March 1 and continues to be in. Failure to break out created a double top on the chart, but the top is still in since it failed to break out.

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #161 on: May 11, 2017, 12:26:48 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD

No it isn't. You must be confusing it with another thread. And it's not like suddenly 2 years ago people started calling 'tops' and making endless 'red dow' jokes and all that crap anyway.

It's like people who keep reusing some weak catchphrase from SNL that wasn't really that funny in the first place. But they think it's astounding hilarious and run it into the ground for the next decade.

Also, it doesn't matter if he's going on about quadrupletops or a thousand tops, if it pretty much remains the same top, right? Like I wrote, he's technically already wrong, but off by a fraction of a percent. That's not really a LOT. (it's not clear that he was specifically calling an exact date before late April -though I could be wrong. I don't think anyone bothered to insist on it from him 'til later on).

The sad fact is that it usually takes a while to prove these predictions as utterly, completely false. It's so much cheaper and lazier to make lame jokes. I find it speaks far worse of this forum than it does of some newbie here calling a 'top' and spewing investor jargon. Seeing as this will obviously never end -someone will always end up coming here making some magical claim... how long are you going to keep getting off on it?

I mean, you're a pretty recent newbie to all this yourself, aren't you tyson? Maybe some perspective?

IMO, we should just insist these folks call the exact top (allow a reasonable +/- window) AND a bottom (so the prediction would be of any use to anyone), and then lock the thread and move it to another permanently locked thread that is just there to collect any these random 'calls'. We can all link and refer to that when this inevitably keeps happening endlessly.


Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #162 on: May 11, 2017, 12:33:55 PM »
I'm a little confused by what is being called. The S&P set a new all-time closing high yesterday at 2399.63. The intraday high is 2403.87 set the day before, May 9. So the top isn't in, correct? Because they just broke through what the previous highs were. Or am I missing something?
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bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #163 on: May 11, 2017, 12:35:06 PM »
Seeing as this will obviously never end -someone will always end up coming here making some magical claim... how long are you going to keep getting off on it?

As long as it's funny to the poster?

What's the problem? If you don't find it funny, and it chaps your hide to see people posting lame jokes, you don't have to read the thread, right?

Meanwhile, the rest of us lamers will continue making lame jokes about a pennant pattern coinciding with an impending gap at the open.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #164 on: May 11, 2017, 12:36:29 PM »
AZryan  See tyort's message two posts above yours.

My favorite part of the other thread was:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/a-crash-is-coming/msg295712/#msg295712

TL;dr  out of 90% of positions and into cash  in 2014 . 

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #165 on: May 11, 2017, 12:38:17 PM »
thorstach,

If you're not trying to troll people here (and I've defended you from people flat out calling you that), then what's your point? You basically called a top. But are you trying to tell us something that's helpful? Do you suggest something we should do, or are you just trying to 'get credit' for calling a top (if that does actually basically pan out)?

It doesn't really help to get out of the market at a 'top' if we don't also know what the bottom is. Do you have any prediction there? How much is it going to drop before we should get back in?

And I'd suggest you lay off the flurry of technical jargon. You will just get ridiculed for it. It's of no use to anyone here. Just speak plainly and make yourself of some use or the jokes and insults we become more and more deserved.

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #166 on: May 11, 2017, 12:38:41 PM »
I'm a little confused by what is being called. The S&P set a new all-time closing high yesterday at 2399.63. The intraday high is 2403.87 set the day before, May 9. So the top isn't in, correct? Because they just broke through what the previous highs were. Or am I missing something?

It's now a double top, which indicates a test of the previous high without going much higher. There's also a triple top, which is what it sounds like.

Sure, this happens probably 100s of times when the market is near a high but this time it's different.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #167 on: May 11, 2017, 12:40:41 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD

No it isn't. You must be confusing it with another thread. And it's not like suddenly 2 years ago people started calling 'tops' and making endless 'red dow' jokes and all that crap anyway.

It's like people who keep reusing some weak catchphrase from SNL that wasn't really that funny in the first place. But they think it's astounding hilarious and run it into the ground for the next decade.

Also, it doesn't matter if he's going on about quadrupletops or a thousand tops, if it pretty much remains the same top, right? Like I wrote, he's technically already wrong, but off by a fraction of a percent. That's not really a LOT. (it's not clear that he was specifically calling an exact date before late April -though I could be wrong. I don't think anyone bothered to insist on it from him 'til later on).

The sad fact is that it usually takes a while to prove these predictions as utterly, completely false. It's so much cheaper and lazier to make lame jokes. I find it speaks far worse of this forum than it does of some newbie here calling a 'top' and spewing investor jargon. Seeing as this will obviously never end -someone will always end up coming here making some magical claim... how long are you going to keep getting off on it?

I mean, you're a pretty recent newbie to all this yourself, aren't you tyson? Maybe some perspective?

IMO, we should just insist these folks call the exact top (allow a reasonable +/- window) AND a bottom (so the prediction would be of any use to anyone), and then lock the thread and move it to another permanently locked thread that is just there to collect any these random 'calls'. We can all link and refer to that when this inevitably keeps happening endlessly.

Well, Ryan, I call this stuff out because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.  Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't".

But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.  Of course I call bullshit when I see this type of crap now. 

I mean, don't get me wrong, the market will drop some day.  But that's not even useful information.  If the top were in, does that mean a hard sharp drop with a quick rebound?  A flat, long period of stagnation?  An slow gradual decline?  I mean if they call the top, then maybe they should also let us know the depth and length of the dip, too.  That would actually be more useful, if they were right.

As of now, it's been 3 years of crystal ball and jargon and charts utterly and completely failing.  Thread after threat.  Month after month.  Year after year.  So yeah, I'm gonna face punch people that come in and post crap like this.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 12:45:36 PM by tyort1 »
Frugalite in training.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #168 on: May 11, 2017, 12:41:52 PM »
via Imgflip Meme Generator

I can keep making fun of "calling the top" for awhile, because it just doesn't matter. 

If OP, or anyone else, is correct that the S&P500 has reached its all-time high, never to be seen again, then we're all doomed.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 12:45:35 PM by Clean Shaven »

sirdoug007

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #169 on: May 11, 2017, 12:43:17 PM »
On a serious note, double top is in.




AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #170 on: May 11, 2017, 12:51:39 PM »
Quote from: bacchi
What's the problem?

Right. Obviously the old 'well if you don't like it, you can just leave' line works. As does, 'if you don't like something, say something'.

I was trying to say maybe this forum shouldn't become this sort of thing? It's not like there are a ton of people acting like this is the funniest shit ever. Where we all just trash a newbie here like childish bullies??

And some might be considered a bit hypocritical while they're at it, since they had no idea about these investing and lifestyle concepts only a few short years ago. But now they roar with laughter in wild abandon like they've always been doing this, and it should be so obvious to everyone else that this is how to do it.

Some times some things are worth a little reflection and reconsideration.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #171 on: May 11, 2017, 01:00:15 PM »
Aren't the concepts of a market top or bottom really only relevant if you are an investor trying to time the market?  i.e. short term investing?

For long term, buy-and-hold, it doesn't matter. 

For reference, 15 seconds of googling produced this prediction of a market top from Forbes, carrying a Scary Title of "Watch Out," complete with Scary Graphs and this warning:  "What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2011/07/22/watch-out-2011-looks-a-lot-like-the-market-top-in-2007/#69ae02f430f9

That article was from 2011.  The market has done fine since then.

L.A.S.

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #172 on: May 11, 2017, 01:02:31 PM »
thorstach,

If you're not trying to troll people here (and I've defended you from people flat out calling you that), then what's your point? You basically called a top. But are you trying to tell us something that's helpful? Do you suggest something we should do, or are you just trying to 'get credit' for calling a top (if that does actually basically pan out)?

It doesn't really help to get out of the market at a 'top' if we don't also know what the bottom is. Do you have any prediction there? How much is it going to drop before we should get back in?

And I'd suggest you lay off the flurry of technical jargon. You will just get ridiculed for it. It's of no use to anyone here. Just speak plainly and make yourself of some use or the jokes and insults we become more and more deserved.

Am I missing something? When did OP say to get out in the first place?

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #173 on: May 11, 2017, 01:10:51 PM »
Some things are in my control.  Other things are not.  What the market does (i.e., whether the top is in) is outside of my control, and outside of my knowledge, and I accept that.  I am perfectly content to buy and hold index funds. 

There are people in this world who want to believe they have superior knowledge or ability, therefore they have an advantage by way of stock picking, market timing, and the like.  Good for them.  In my opinion, that is delusional, but there is no universal law that says everyone else has to acknowledge my opinion. 

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #174 on: May 11, 2017, 01:14:16 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
-because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.-

I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.

"-But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.-"

That's ALWAYS been going on. It's not been months and years; it's been ALWAYS. But I asked, 'how long are you going to find it hilarious'?? You who maybe only realized this stuff yourself a few years ago??

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #175 on: May 11, 2017, 01:27:31 PM »
I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.
Personally, jokes would make me question the seriousness of the thread and strongly reconsider whether I was willing to act on something I read. Acting based on a thread on MMM sounds silly to begin with but when you don't know anything it doesn't feel that way. Maybe the ridicule isn't necessary, but I can see value in the jokes.
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AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #176 on: May 11, 2017, 01:29:48 PM »
Quote from: Clean Shaven
Aren't the concepts of a market top or bottom really only relevant if you are an investor trying to time the market?  i.e. short term investing?

That's a perfect argument. It's been made a billion times. Shouldn't we just lock these sort of dumb threads and tell the prognosticators that since this is a buy and hold style investment forum, no one cares what their prediction is?
I'm trying to prevent the inevitable next of these dumb threads., while some here are trying to make each new one live forever.

Quote from: L.A.S.
Am I missing something? When did OP say to get out in the first place?

If the OP doesn't have any point to make their prediction relevant, then it's pointless even if they're exactly right. And I think we ought to demand they include that in their posts, or it's just trash piling up here. Calling a 'top' implies getting out (or taking some action to financially gain from it), or else there's literally no point in saying it.

So if you get out, then it implies getting back in at some other time (unless they mean the actual top -as in the market will never cross this point ever in the history of the world again -but we usually assume that's not what someone means).

This forum should handle these endless predictions in a better way than making them into stupid page after page of dumb jokes and insults that go to the top of the threads list. I suggested a way earlier.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #177 on: May 11, 2017, 01:35:21 PM »

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

There are serious threads on this forum, which generate serious responses.  And there are silly threads, which generate silly responses. 

This thread was started with this post:

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

And the OP never clarified any of it, never gave any (potentially useful or open to discussion) information like what anyone could or should do about it, even when others attempted to engage OP in a discussion:

nice to meet you thorstach.   Are you shorting?  If not, why not?

Most on this board prefer to invest for the long term and don't really follow short term movements very much, preferring to buy and hold with periodic asset rebalancing.

You might do okay from speculating, but most of the new arriving investment gurus on this forum have disappeared with their tales between their legs over the years.

OP just keeps posting cryptic statements that would seem to carry some grand wisdom...

The top is still in. XIV triple top with VIX bouncing back. US Steel down 26% as reality sets in.

... but IMHO are just nonsense.  Accordingly, I respond with silliness, memes, gifs, and the occasional New Order lyric.

Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #178 on: May 11, 2017, 02:38:43 PM »

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

You must be a barrel of laughs at a party?  Listen, people need to draw attention and ridicule to erroneous predictions as much as possible to keep others from stepping into the quagmire.  If we all discussed like it was a very serious topic it would give actual credence to the plausibility of the prediction.  And there's seriously none to be had. 

Also, stern, preachy, and virtue signaling isn't a better approach than jocular.  You think people here were actually being mean or just having a laugh? 

..And if I ever start spouting nonsense here, mustaches, please feel free to pile on me.  Cream pies and facepunches welcome. 
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dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #179 on: May 11, 2017, 02:48:35 PM »
Technically thorstach is obviously correct, a top is always in. Why? Because time is a continuum and as long as the stock market has had any value at any point it time a top is in.

Let's say the S&P500 was at 2000 today and was at 2050 a couple of weeks ago and that was the highest it's ever been. Then the top is in at 2050. Now let's say tomorrow it goes to 2051, now a top is in, it's 2051! The top is always in until a new top comes and then it's in again.

In conclusion: Top is in

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #180 on: May 11, 2017, 02:52:34 PM »
I thought the dumb jokes in this thread were a deliberate response to dumb pronouncements in this thread.  Did I give someone too much credit?  Should I have assumed people were just randomly being stupid, instead of purposely being stupid?

We've asked OP for clarification multiple times, and been given nothing but more cryptic emptiness.  How long does a top have to hold to be considered a top?  Is the prediction that the market will NEVER exceed that top (oops) or just not exceed it for a week, or a month, or a year?  What's the signal for determining the top except gut feelings, and what's the supposed signal for determining the bottom and getting back in?

I maintain that OP is only here to pester people, and has no real information or insight or advice.  I think it's all for funsies.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 11:08:08 PM by sol »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #181 on: May 11, 2017, 02:58:02 PM »
OK, now I know you're a troll.  But damn if you don't make me smile!  Thanks man. 

I want to play too!!!! I found this random financial advice generator on the internet
https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

First advice randomly generated:

Uninsured CDOs: in the aeronautics marketplace, always divest from them.

Next bit:

In counterparty markets, plan to restructure senior-rated derivatives.

Man, this is fun, wheeeee!!

Somehow I overlooked this gem earlier.

Therefore, I now remedy my earlier failure:

"The smart trader nowadays will always securitize uninsured systemic risks."

P.S. - all my stupidity is intentional.  I think.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #182 on: May 11, 2017, 03:00:20 PM »

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

You must be a barrel of laughs at a party?  Listen, people need to draw attention and ridicule to erroneous predictions as much as possible to keep others from stepping into the quagmire.  If we all discussed like it was a very serious topic it would give actual credence to the plausibility of the prediction.  And there's seriously none to be had. 

Also, stern, preachy, and virtue signaling isn't a better approach than jocular.  You think people here were actually being mean or just having a laugh? 

..And if I ever start spouting nonsense here, mustaches, please feel free to pile on me.  Cream pies and facepunches welcome.

Ask him how he feels about the word retired, and then sit back and let the good times roll in.  ;)


I personally think this thread is hilarious and am getting quite a lot of laughs out of it.  The whole idea that this sort of nonsense is supposed to be countered with serious points is idiotic.  Post dumb ideas, get dumb responses.  At least it's entertaining.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

thenextguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #183 on: May 11, 2017, 03:19:04 PM »
Feel free to call these predictions bullshit.

Will do!

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #184 on: May 11, 2017, 07:48:49 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
-because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.-

I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.

"-But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.-"

That's ALWAYS been going on. It's not been months and years; it's been ALWAYS. But I asked, 'how long are you going to find it hilarious'?? You who maybe only realized this stuff yourself a few years ago??

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

Hmmm, I 'could' do all those things and make you happy.  Or I can just keep doing what I'm doing and make me happy.  Decisions, decisions..... 
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 11:31:47 PM by tyort1 »
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aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #185 on: May 11, 2017, 11:02:43 PM »
...but I can see value in the jokes.

Always, but especially these days.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #186 on: May 11, 2017, 11:08:45 PM »
On a serious note, double top is in.
Wow, now that is some crazy coincidence. My S&P500 price chart generator just gave me a double top too!!! What are the odds of that happening on the same day? Of course, my result is actually a double top, which requires at least a 10% decline between peaks (according to stockcharts.com). According to this chart you should look out for premature double tops, which according to this chart are a real thing.


This forum should handle these endless predictions in a better way than making them into stupid page after page of dumb jokes and insults that go to the top of the threads list.
I disagree

WildJager

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #187 on: May 11, 2017, 11:52:59 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
-because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.-

I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.

"-But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.-"

That's ALWAYS been going on. It's not been months and years; it's been ALWAYS. But I asked, 'how long are you going to find it hilarious'?? You who maybe only realized this stuff yourself a few years ago??

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

The reason why people shun this type of "advice" is because it's dangerous.  Chartists have never had any merit in investing, but somehow they're still around.  Their predictions destroy the well meaning day traders who think they are doing right by "educating" themselves, but are simply being swindled by salesmen.

The reason why you see people here and elsewhere making fun of the green tinted visor wearing chartists is because, frankly, repeating the same sage advice ad nauseum is exhausting.  There are only so many times you can remind people, "Please, don't light yourself on fire to lose weight.  While blubber is an effective fuel, it will hurt you.". When people roll in with the Next Great Weight Loss plan that's repetitively stupid, a thoughtful response isn't given.

Is that right?  I don't know.  That wouldn't fly in a school of course, but this isn't a school.  This is a society whose objective is to build the collective knowledge.  While group think is a danger, chasing foxes out of the hen house is equally important if the advice is hurtful.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #188 on: May 11, 2017, 11:59:14 PM »
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little? 
Frugalite in training.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #189 on: May 12, 2017, 10:13:34 AM »
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little?



(meant in good humor, AZRyan...)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #190 on: May 12, 2017, 11:39:56 AM »
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little?



(meant in good humor, AZRyan...)

Thought that cat was supposed to be dead already?  What's going on?

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #191 on: May 12, 2017, 12:09:17 PM »
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.
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dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #192 on: May 12, 2017, 12:19:38 PM »
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.

Schrödinger's cat isn't alive when you look at it and dead when you don't. It's simultaneously dead and alive until observed in which case it would then be one state or the other (dead or alive).

Inaya

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #193 on: May 12, 2017, 12:31:16 PM »
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little?
Top is in. Fun is out. :(
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OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #194 on: May 12, 2017, 12:31:42 PM »
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.

Schrödinger's cat isn't alive when you look at it and dead when you don't. It's simultaneously dead and alive until observed in which case it would then be one state or the other (dead or alive).

Why doesn't the cat just observe itself?

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #195 on: May 12, 2017, 12:32:22 PM »
I hadn't thought of it before, but Schrodinger's Cat is simultaneously bouncing or still until you observe it.   So it could be dead and bouncing or alive and still or some combination of entangled states.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #196 on: May 12, 2017, 12:42:21 PM »
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #197 on: May 12, 2017, 12:49:34 PM »
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

What happens when the triple top dead Schrodinger's cat bounce comes?  We just revise our predictions from dead cat to alive cat?
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aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #198 on: May 12, 2017, 01:22:04 PM »
at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

What happens when the triple top dead Schrodinger's cat bounce comes?  We just revise our predictions from dead cat to alive cat?

Only if thorstach says so. He has so clearly established his credibility in the field of market timing that we owe him the benefit of doubt under all these evolving cat bounces.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #199 on: May 12, 2017, 01:27:37 PM »
And I should point out, even if the top is in, that is not actionable.  Maybe if you want to try to time the market it might be useful.  But the whole point of MMM style investing is you DO NOT time the market.  Buy and hold.  Boring I know. 
Frugalite in training.