Top is in

[Loren Ver]

Negative growth is still counts as growth for Growth Stocks right??

[Glenstache]

Negative growth is still counts as growth for Growth Stocks right??

|Absolutely|

[SwordGuy]

Negative growth is still counts as growth for Growth Stocks right??

|Absolutely|

That's how you put a positive spin on something!

[maizefolk]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

[Wintergreen78]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

[Monocle Money Mouth]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

S&P 500 at 1600 should be an accumulator's dream. I'd be happy with 3600 right now. Don't tease me like that!

[Travis]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

S&P 500 at 1600 should be an accumulator's dream. I'd be happy with 3600 right now. Don't tease me like that!

Investing on leverage top?

[Monocle Money Mouth]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

S&P 500 at 1600 should be an accumulator's dream. I'd be happy with 3600 right now. Don't tease me like that!

Investing on leverage top?

Wishful thinking top. I just want to see a correction so I can get more shares with my regular taxable and 401(k) purchases.

[Travis]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

S&P 500 at 1600 should be an accumulator's dream. I'd be happy with 3600 right now. Don't tease me like that!

Investing on leverage top?

Wishful thinking top. I just want to see a correction so I can get more shares with my regular taxable and 401(k) purchases.

If housing went through a correction in a year or two - I wouldn't be very upset.

[solon]

Does @thorstach work for the Wall Street Journal now? And is his name Karen?

[Glenstache]

Does @thorstach work for the Wall Street Journal now? And is his name Karen?

Karen would like to talk to the Manager about the economy.

[JAYSLOL]

One week into 2022, the market is on track to decline 75% by the end of the year.

I’m seeing a 2% decline this week. Wouldn’t that put us at a 77% decline for the year?

S&P 500 at 1,600 by Christmas 2022. I’m calling it now.

S&P 500 at 1600 should be an accumulator's dream. I'd be happy with 3600 right now. Don't tease me like that!

Investing on leverage top?

Wishful thinking top. I just want to see a correction so I can get more shares with my regular taxable and 401(k) purchases.

If housing went through a correction in a year or two - I wouldn't be very upset.

Yeah, seriously.  I’ve been trying to get a place for years but the market just keeps outpacing what I can earn.  Top is happening? 

[RWTL]

Mighty quiet around here....

[secondcor521]

Mighty quiet around here....

I'm just in shock and awe at thorstach's bold and amazing prediction.  I mean, how did he know that the Top Would Be In one thousand, seven hundred, forty seven days in advance?  And back when the S&P was at an adjusted price of 2,340.75?

I mean, just ... just ... wow!  What you're hearing over here is just stunned silence at the bold call.

[frugalnacho]

60% of the time it works every time.

[SwordGuy]

Ex-employer asked me to close down my 401K and roll it over to an IRA.   The fees were high so I didn't mind.  Should have done it 3 years ago when I retired but just didn't get around to it.

Coincidentally the money was pulled out at very near the tippy top.  The check is on its way to Vanguard.  I'm hoping for a big dip that will last a day past the money being put back into S&P 500 stock.   

So, thanks Thorstache for predicting this top!   I'm hoping to turn $198K into $300K -- or at least avoid turning it into $100K.

[dividendman]

I am sick of the Top being in. Can't we just get some gains? Jeez.

[DadJokes]

I am sick of the Top being in. Can't we just get some gains? Jeez.

Ye of little faith!

Behold, for the Top is all that shall remain!

[Monocle Money Mouth]

I am sick of the Top being in. Can't we just get some gains? Jeez.

I hope this dips lasts through at least tomorrow. I have a 401(k) contribution about to happen.

Accumulators be like:

[maizefolk]

The top is so in we're down to prices not seen in seven weeks.

[RWTL]

Mighty quiet around here....

I'm glad I was able to kick start this thread again.  It's one of my favorites.

[vand]

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

[GuitarStv]

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

I remember that I started investing in 2007 . . . and then over 2008 watching my investments drop about 50% of their value.  Shit happens, stock goes up and down, time in the market is better than timing the market.  And bonds have a place in a portfolio - it's when things tank . . . which haven't happened in a long while, but will happen again at some point.

[vand]

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

I remember that I started investing in 2007 . . . and then over 2008 watching my investments drop about 50% of their value.  Shit happens, stock goes up and down, time in the market is better than timing the market.  And bonds have a place in a portfolio - it's when things tank . . . which haven't happened in a long while, but will happen again at some point.

You feel differently about it depending what stage of life you are at.

When you have a year's worth of savings in the market then you have very little skin in the game and a crash is the best thing that can happen for you., but when you have a lifetime's worth of savings in the market then you are a little less gungho about it.

Bond haven't been acting as the portfolio shock absorbers in the last month and have been tanking along with stocks.  The danger, as we have discussed in various other threads, is the threat of a crisis that has been caused as a consequence of the the actions that were taken to get us past the last crisis - namely, an inflationary recession.  That changes the game for the role of bonds in the supposedly "balanced" portfolio.  If the market tanks because of inflation then bonds are not going to be the saviour they are in a deflationary downturn.

[GuitarStv]

I have no real concerns about inflation tanking the stock market.

If prices of equities drop, I'll continue to rebalance and buy more of them.  If prices go up, then I'll continue to rebalance and buy more bonds.  If the market completely tanks (both stocks and bonds) then I'll reduce consumption as much as possible . . . and worse comes to worse coudl sell my home (fully paid off and worth about 50% of the total amount I've got invested.)

[G-dog]

Bond haven't been acting as the portfolio shock absorbers in the last month and have been tanking along with stocks.

I would say bonds haven’t performed for the last several years!  But I do understand they are supposed to move opposite of stocks, and I haven’t looked up the explicit data on that.  Bonds have been performing so badly that I dumped my bond funds a few years ago.

[solon]

Guys, the top is in. I'm serious. Of course the stock market is going down. You've known this for almost five years now.

[SwordGuy]

Bond haven't been acting as the portfolio shock absorbers in the last month and have been tanking along with stocks.

I would say bonds haven’t performed for the last several years!  But I do understand they are supposed to move opposite of stocks, and I haven’t looked up the explicit data on that.  Bonds have been performing so badly that I dumped my bond funds a few years ago.

I think bonds work better than bond funds as shock absorbers -- because you don't have to sell the bonds, you can just collect the interest.   In a bond fund, if enough people panic, bonds get sold that shouldn't have been just to raise the cash.

[JJ-]

Guys, the top is in. I'm serious. Of course the stock market is going down. You've known this for almost five years now.

Agreed. Old news move along

[PDXTabs]

Bond haven't been acting as the portfolio shock absorbers in the last month and have been tanking along with stocks.

I would say bonds haven’t performed for the last several years!  But I do understand they are supposed to move opposite of stocks, and I haven’t looked up the explicit data on that.  Bonds have been performing so badly that I dumped my bond funds a few years ago.

It's just not true. Historically bonds do not offer any real assurance of moving opposite stocks.

The correlation between stocks and bonds is one of the most
important inputs to the asset allocation decision. However,
it is difficult to estimate reliably, and can change drastically
with macroeconomic conditions.1 From 1927 to 2012, the
correlation between the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries
– as calculated by calendar year based on monthly data – has
changed sign 29 times, and has ranged from −93% to +86%.
...
The full sample average of the realized correlation is 10%.
However, there is a substantial variation around this mean:
The correlation estimates vary in the range of −93% to +86%
with a standard deviation of 40%. Also, the correlation was
below −50% in seven years, and above +50% in 14 years,
which indicates a greater tendency for the correlation to
“spike” up versus going down. It is also remarkable that the
persistently positive estimates of this correlation in the 1970s
and 1980s gave way to persistently negative values since the
mid-1990s. This, however, is not just a current phenomenon.
Negative correlations were observed during the 1950s as well
as during the Great Depression, and in general during periods
when the business cycle dominated asset returns. - PIMCO: The Stock-Bond Correlation

[thorstach]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

[Weisass]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

HE LIVES

[vand]

The short term relationship between stocks and bonds is a fairly complicated on. Over the longer term both asset classes thrive in disinflationary environments. Bonds also do even better in outright deflationary environment whereas stocks don’t.

Both tend to struggle in inflationary environments whilst stocks can tolerate mild inflation, but both get clobbered in highly inflationary environment (don’t believe those those say that German stocks thrived during hyperinflation, they are full of shit).

But despite whatever the prevailing macroeconomic environment, bonds do have a tendency to act as a short term flight to a safer asset when the riskier asset gets sold off hard. So even if we are entering a stagflation period, and both stocks and bonds struggle, there will be times when the stock market sells off hard and the bond market will get a little bump up as the least worst short term option.

[solon]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

[waltworks]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

OMFG does this mean we're going to be up another 100% or so?

Your last top call worked out really well for me so I'm psyched to hear another one!

-W

[SwordGuy]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

OMFG does this mean we're going to be up another 100% or so?

Your last top call worked out really well for me so I'm psyched to hear another one!

-W

NO!!!   NO!!!   NO!!!

Wait until the end of the week for the new top!

[PDXTabs]

Bonds also do even better in outright deflationary environment whereas stocks don’t.

You won't get any argument from me there. But will we ever see that in our lifetimes? I don't think so.

[PDXTabs]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

OMFG does this mean we're going to be up another 100% or so?

Your last top call worked out really well for me so I'm psyched to hear another one!

-W

Right? A couple more of these and I can retire.

[2Birds1Stone]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

My hero!

[the_fixer]

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

I remember that I started investing in 2007 . . . and then over 2008 watching my investments drop about 50% of their value.  Shit happens, stock goes up and down, time in the market is better than timing the market.  And bonds have a place in a portfolio - it's when things tank . . . which haven't happened in a long while, but will happen again at some point.

You feel differently about it depending what stage of life you are at.

When you have a year's worth of savings in the market then you have very little skin in the game and a crash is the best thing that can happen for you., but when you have a lifetime's worth of savings in the market then you are a little less gungho about it.

Bond haven't been acting as the portfolio shock absorbers in the last month and have been tanking along with stocks.  The danger, as we have discussed in various other threads, is the threat of a crisis that has been caused as a consequence of the the actions that were taken to get us past the last crisis - namely, an inflationary recession.  That changes the game for the role of bonds in the supposedly "balanced" portfolio.  If the market tanks because of inflation then bonds are not going to be the saviour they are in a deflationary downturn.

So what you are saying is buy buy buy… amiright




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

Wish you would've told me that the top was in at 4818.62 instead of 4482.73...

Wish you would've told me when stagflation was going to start so I could've loaded up on real assets when they were cheaper...

[vand]

Bonds also do even better in outright deflationary environment whereas stocks don’t.

You won't get any argument from me there. But will we ever see that in our lifetimes? I don't think so.

Yeah unlikely whilst we have a central bank hellbent on destroying the purchasing power of the currency in your pocket.

The latest figure from the AAII sentiment survey are deeply bearish to the levels that are usually a strong contrarian indicator. However this feels like more than just a technical pullback to me. If my fears are unfounded then we should rally to new highs from here.. but it could also lead into a waterfall decline if the current levels do not hold.

Real wages are now declining as inflation squeezes living costs, and while the stock market is not the economic, it is not a good recipe when your economy is 70% driven by consumption.

[PDXTabs]

Bonds also do even better in outright deflationary environment whereas stocks don’t.

You won't get any argument from me there. But will we ever see that in our lifetimes? I don't think so.

Yeah unlikely whilst we have a central bank hellbent on destroying the purchasing power of the currency in your pocket.

I think that it is generally accepted that the deflation during the great depression was a VeryBadThing™. So yea, they'll err on the side of inflation before deflation and I can't blame them.

[DaTrill]

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

Same.  Sold riskiest positions for the last hour of trading, will de-risk the portfolio tomorrow.  Lost more in the last week than I will make all year and FIRE this year.  Will be market neutral as much as I can without major tax hit.  I'm old enough to also have been around for 2001 and remember someone shockingly saying "The Nasdaq is below 4,000!!!" Two years later, around 1,000.  These selloffs can take a long time and this one will probably be the same.  Normally leverage is what tanks a market and leverage is not excessive in the stock markets but is out of control in crypto/NFT markets.       

I remember that I started investing in 2007 . . . and then over 2008 watching my investments drop about 50% of their value.  Shit happens, stock goes up and down, time in the market is better than timing the market.  And bonds have a place in a portfolio - it's when things tank . . . which haven't happened in a long while, but will happen again at some point.

[DaTrill]

I have no real concerns about inflation tanking the stock market.

If prices of equities drop, I'll continue to rebalance and buy more of them.  If prices go up, then I'll continue to rebalance and buy more bonds.  If the market completely tanks (both stocks and bonds) then I'll reduce consumption as much as possible . . . and worse comes to worse coudl sell my home (fully paid off and worth about 50% of the total amount I've got invested.)

Famous last words. 

[aboatguy]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

Damn, tomorrow's payday and I have my TSP deposit going in.


 

[vand]

Small cap growth is getting hammered. This is reflected in the Nasdaq composite that has been the weakest of the main indexes. In fact it is trading below its 200dma which presents a big problem for the bull market.

The VBK Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF is -20% from its 52 week high just a couple of months ago, and -14% from its level a year ago.

But by contrast the value plays have held up really well..

VSPVX Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index Fund is only in a -7% drawdown and still up 16% over 1yr, and the value-packed FTSE100 (current CAPE 16) is currently trading only a couple of % down from multi-year highs, so beneath the surface there is a lot going on.

[dragoncar]

I am sick of the Top being in. Can't we just get some gains? Jeez.

I hope this dips lasts through at least tomorrow. I have a 401(k) contribution about to happen.

Accumulators be like:

Retired folks be like:



TURN IT OFF!!! TURN IT OFF!!!

[Monocle Money Mouth]

I am sick of the Top being in. Can't we just get some gains? Jeez.

I hope this dips lasts through at least tomorrow. I have a 401(k) contribution about to happen.

Accumulators be like:

Retired folks be like:



TURN IT OFF!!! TURN IT OFF!!!

That's right. We're taking Uncle Rico's time machine back in time to October of 2021.

[talltexan]

When you make market moves, you have to do it with the Thorstach you have, not the Thorstach you want.