Quote from: dragoncar on December 08, 2019, 12:54:29 PMQuote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 10:54:42 AMQuote from: TomTX on December 08, 2019, 08:28:52 AMQuote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 07:47:47 AMI am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.Market timing! That's the ticket!**To dramatically underperforming the market indices.*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.Exactly. Some people just don’t understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds. I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors. With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.I used to work with a guy that would swear up and down that he could beat the house at craps. He was apparently a very skilled craps player. The argument that he was mid 40's, living in his mother's basement, and washing dishes at a grocery store working alongside a teenage me wasn't enough to break the delusion that he could make money at craps.
Quote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 10:54:42 AMQuote from: TomTX on December 08, 2019, 08:28:52 AMQuote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 07:47:47 AMI am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.Market timing! That's the ticket!**To dramatically underperforming the market indices.*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.Exactly. Some people just don’t understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds. I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors. With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.
Quote from: TomTX on December 08, 2019, 08:28:52 AMQuote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 07:47:47 AMI am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.Market timing! That's the ticket!**To dramatically underperforming the market indices.*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.
Quote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 07:47:47 AMI am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.Market timing! That's the ticket!**To dramatically underperforming the market indices.
I am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.
Quote from: frugalnacho on December 09, 2019, 07:30:26 AMQuote from: dragoncar on December 08, 2019, 12:54:29 PMQuote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 10:54:42 AMQuote from: TomTX on December 08, 2019, 08:28:52 AMQuote from: blue_green_sparks on December 08, 2019, 07:47:47 AMI am willing to stay in the market and pay for mechanisms to limit my downside losses. I am already retired, not a lot of alternatives to equities. I did find a 5yr 3.3% APY IRA Insured CD a few months ago. Perhaps the key to 2020 is to be less in broad indexes and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks even.Market timing! That's the ticket!**To dramatically underperforming the market indices.*Never had that problem. I have done very, very well with individual companies that I am knowledgeable about (long term) alongside US/global index funds, sector funds and fixed income and I retired 6 years ahead of schedule. If stocks go up 15% in 2020 I will reap 12.5%. If they tank 15% I will only be down 7% and have liquidity to pounce when buying is good.Exactly. Some people just don’t understand that those with extreme skill can beat the odds. I have personally done very well at the craps table, both with individual point numbers and broader pass/no pass sectors. With my excess cash, I am way ahead of schedule on steak dinners.I used to work with a guy that would swear up and down that he could beat the house at craps. He was apparently a very skilled craps player. The argument that he was mid 40's, living in his mother's basement, and washing dishes at a grocery store working alongside a teenage me wasn't enough to break the delusion that he could make money at craps. Washing dishes at a grocery store?
Quote from: DadJokes on December 10, 2019, 05:52:11 AMQuote from: Steeze on December 10, 2019, 05:43:08 AMQuote from: dandarc on December 09, 2019, 10:06:40 AMBack on topic - TOP IS IN!Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.
Quote from: Steeze on December 10, 2019, 05:43:08 AMQuote from: dandarc on December 09, 2019, 10:06:40 AMBack on topic - TOP IS IN!Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.
Quote from: dandarc on December 09, 2019, 10:06:40 AMBack on topic - TOP IS IN!Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.
Back on topic - TOP IS IN!Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?
it's hard to imagine us as poised for a huge bull run-up right now.
Quote from: BigMoneyJim on September 03, 2017, 09:34:00 AMit's hard to imagine us as poised for a huge bull run-up right now.... me in another thread in September 2017. S&P was around 2520.I feel the same today at 3132.52. Top is always in.Lucky for me I don't market time.
Quote from: talltexan on December 10, 2019, 09:11:11 AMQuote from: DadJokes on December 10, 2019, 05:52:11 AMQuote from: Steeze on December 10, 2019, 05:43:08 AMQuote from: dandarc on December 09, 2019, 10:06:40 AMBack on topic - TOP IS IN!Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.My first lesson in market timing. So many Griffey cards, so much wasted paper route income.
Quote from: aspiringnomad on December 10, 2019, 06:03:14 PMQuote from: talltexan on December 10, 2019, 09:11:11 AMQuote from: DadJokes on December 10, 2019, 05:52:11 AMQuote from: Steeze on December 10, 2019, 05:43:08 AMQuote from: dandarc on December 09, 2019, 10:06:40 AMBack on topic - TOP IS IN!Do you prefer your tops of the tank variety or spinning?Baseball cards for sure. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. that will be worth millions one day.I think top was in on baseball cards in 1999. I just looked up the value of my "prized" Griffey rookie card...$12.I visited some friends in Houston, and the wife had given the husband a birthday gift that was basically sheet after sheet of different Ken Griffey, Jr., cards.My first lesson in market timing. So many Griffey cards, so much wasted paper route income.Change baseball cards for comic books and that's my early teen years. I sold one comic book a few years ago for $300 because they made a movie about it. The rest (a couple hundred comics) I sold for less than what I paid for them.
1909 Honus Wagner card is considered the most valuable card in existence. Thus Honus = Topps!
Two new tops, how's this happen is the bottom in? Where's Thorstache with the answers?
Hello, two things are coming together.1. It's likely sale of my home will be complete before end of year.2. I will rebalance investment portfolio to less risk, to include cash from home.The profit from the house is totally wiped out, and then some, from cost of repairs and other fees. How much of those losses can be used to offset capital gains taxes?
I live in Japan but get paid in dollars. I remember yen increased in value by a lot in 2009 compared to the dollar.How crazy would it be to keep enough yen in my Japanese savings account for a year or two's worth of daily purchases?I'm less than 10 years from FI.
Quote from: wingfold2001 on December 13, 2019, 06:46:00 AMI live in Japan but get paid in dollars. I remember yen increased in value by a lot in 2009 compared to the dollar.How crazy would it be to keep enough yen in my Japanese savings account for a year or two's worth of daily purchases?I'm less than 10 years from FI.That would essentially be the same as selling dollars and buying JPY in the FX market. However, as you actually live in Japan and you have your income in USD but a lot of expenses in JPY one could argue that doing that would decrease your FX risk. As of now you hold the risk that the JPY appreciates and your USD becomes less and less worth for you in Japan (and the opposite if the JPY deprecates, of course). Selling USD and buying JPY has a negative carry of about 2% per year as interest rates in the US are higher than in JPY. Your JPY would earn zero interest, so you loose the interest income on the USD you sell. The spot exchange rate for USDJPY is 109.5 at mom, the market rate for the same in 2y (the FX forward rate) is 106.2 which doesn not reflect any opinion on the rate going up or down, its just math based on the interest rate differential between JPY and USD for 2 years (1.65% for USD and -0,40% for JPY in case you wondered) - these are not your deposit rates but the relevant rates in the financial markets for calculating the forward exchange rate).
Can the top please be in on detailed, non-joking discussions of foreign exchange rates in this thread?
Quote from: dandarc on December 13, 2019, 12:30:55 PMCan the top please be in on detailed, non-joking discussions of foreign exchange rates in this thread?Yes, back to the shenanigans!
Looks like eight peaks to me
Upper Deck printed approximately one zillion of those things. I think it was worth 40 bucks when I was in middle school. I wish I had been buying index funds instead of baseball cards.
Markets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.
I'm very excited. My top is off.
Quote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?
Quote from: fattest_foot on December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AMQuote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?The great prophet Thorstach
Quote from: fattest_foot on December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AMQuote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?CAPE? P/E ratio?If you happen to be overweight in stocks, certainly it isn't a bad time to rebalance.
Quote from: fattest_foot on December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AMQuote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?Price stretched above a long term moving average.
Quote from: daverobev on December 18, 2019, 10:50:07 AMQuote from: fattest_foot on December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AMQuote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?CAPE? P/E ratio?If you happen to be overweight in stocks, certainly it isn't a bad time to rebalance.I'm 60% stocks, 30% beanie babies, and 10% Topps Ken Griffey Jr. rookie cards, thanks to suggestions from this thread.
Quote from: DadJokes on December 18, 2019, 11:02:48 AMQuote from: daverobev on December 18, 2019, 10:50:07 AMQuote from: fattest_foot on December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AMQuote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?CAPE? P/E ratio?If you happen to be overweight in stocks, certainly it isn't a bad time to rebalance.I'm 60% stocks, 30% beanie babies, and 10% Topps Ken Griffey Jr. rookie cards, thanks to suggestions from this thread.I highly recommend owning a few pogs and at least 1 decent slammer in case the dollar loses world reserve currency status.
Quote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 08:48:18 AMQuote from: fattest_foot on December 18, 2019, 08:28:12 AMQuote from: vand on December 18, 2019, 03:07:57 AMMarkets are very stretched and due a correction, maybe a significant one.I've partially hedged my portfolio by shorting S&P and FTSE100 from this level. Laugh all you want.Based on what?Price stretched above a long term moving average.Details!How large is your short position relative to your portfolio & net worth? When does it expire, strike price, what is your upside/downside risk? Curious how this is executed.