Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 110319 times)

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #700 on: September 12, 2017, 10:40:28 AM »
False breakout...S&P still showing red.  VIX is fake news.  Top is in.

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Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #701 on: September 12, 2017, 10:43:29 AM »
False breakout...S&P still showing red.  VIX is fake news.  Top is in.

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Nice. Here is something to make it more realz.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #702 on: September 12, 2017, 10:56:05 AM »
^^^ Well, that really cleared it up for me.  ^^^

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #703 on: September 12, 2017, 11:01:31 AM »
that graph can cause a seizure

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #704 on: September 12, 2017, 02:00:50 PM »
New top is in.. S&P500

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #705 on: September 12, 2017, 02:15:43 PM »
But what about this?  Can't you tell that the crash is coming?


tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #706 on: September 12, 2017, 02:21:15 PM »
Haha, reminds me of those threads back in 2014 where so many people were absolutely certain that a crash was imminent.  I hope those people didn't cash out in 2014 and miss out on all the gains since then.

Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!".  Geez, I guess some people never really learn.  It makes you wonder - when exactly are these types of people actually comfortable investing in the market? 
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fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #707 on: September 12, 2017, 03:44:09 PM »


Nice. Here is something to make it more realz.

Wow, how could we all have been so blind? It was right in front of our faces all along.

Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #708 on: September 12, 2017, 09:47:36 PM »
False breakout...S&P still showing red.  VIX is fake news.  Top is in.

(Did I do it right?)

That's pretty good, but still doesn't quite have the panache of the real thing.

Finances_With_Purpose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #709 on: September 12, 2017, 10:32:41 PM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Were we being trolled? 

We need a sticky thread for financial predictions so that we can go back and evaluate/mock/ridicule/humor ourselves at them later...

There's so much good material you forget it by the time it's proven false. 

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #710 on: September 13, 2017, 01:29:14 PM »
S&P hits intra-day record high.  Top is in.  For today.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #711 on: September 13, 2017, 06:09:03 PM »

Wow, how could we all have been so blind? It was right in front of our faces all along.

Probably blinded by that graph. Or busy having a siezure...
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sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #712 on: September 13, 2017, 06:14:13 PM »
S&P hits intra-day record high.  Top is in.  For today.

And the Dow put in a record high at closing.  Definitely a new top.  At least until next week.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #713 on: September 13, 2017, 08:12:51 PM »
But what about this?  Can't you tell that the crash is coming?


Haven't seen that chart before, and took me a while to notice that it was from 2014.  I wonder how many people pulled out of the market and lost big because of that completely meaningless comparison. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #714 on: September 14, 2017, 07:57:33 AM »
But what about this?  Can't you tell that the crash is coming?


Haven't seen that chart before, and took me a while to notice that it was from 2014.  I wonder how many people pulled out of the market and lost big because of that completely meaningless comparison.
I was wondering when someone would notice it was from 2014...  Still the same fears and warnings being trumpeted today.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #715 on: September 14, 2017, 09:22:45 AM »
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #716 on: September 14, 2017, 10:57:59 AM »
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

RUN TO THE HILLS!!!!!!11!!!



Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

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tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #717 on: September 14, 2017, 12:12:15 PM »
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.
Frugalite in training.

Comar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #718 on: September 15, 2017, 01:06:32 AM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #719 on: September 15, 2017, 03:07:37 AM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

I'm going to be non-comittal and say 5. In 5 years the s&p 500 could be over 3000 or under 2000 again. A correction will happen at some point. As long as we continue to buy and hold through the dip and let the dividends reinvest, by the time everything has recovered, we will come out ahead.
Less is more.

Kalergie

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #720 on: September 15, 2017, 03:21:55 AM »
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.

I think I'm going to hang this chart in my office. :)

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #721 on: September 15, 2017, 07:39:27 AM »
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fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #722 on: September 15, 2017, 08:31:22 AM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

Considering a drop like that has only really happened one other time, I'd say no.

We will probably see a 10-20% drop though, but even that isn't certain.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #723 on: September 15, 2017, 08:54:50 AM »
Hey S&P500, DOW, and NASDAQ:

The Chase Trifecta:
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wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #724 on: September 15, 2017, 01:12:48 PM »
Hey S&P500, DOW, and NASDAQ:



Why does Thorstach disappear when this happens?

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #725 on: September 15, 2017, 02:10:51 PM »
Top is yet again! 2500!

Although I love all the money I make when this keeps happening, my favorite thing about this market is that this thread keeps going and going.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #726 on: September 15, 2017, 02:15:49 PM »
I forgot to mention that for the technically inclined that 2500 is a weekly close. Sorry about that stake to the heart Thorstache.

sirdoug007

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #727 on: September 15, 2017, 02:21:40 PM »
Top is in!  Got to be all downhill from here after 2500 on the S&P!

Oh wait...

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #728 on: September 15, 2017, 02:27:14 PM »
I just LOVE how this thread just keeps coming back around! It should almost be criminal to get this many laughs out of one thread.
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Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #729 on: September 15, 2017, 02:35:42 PM »

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #730 on: September 15, 2017, 02:40:35 PM »

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #731 on: September 15, 2017, 03:58:22 PM »
I'm pretty sure we'll get a pull-back eventually.  I'm a lot less certain that it will ever again fall as low as today's closing price. 

So I'm still buying, come what may.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #732 on: September 15, 2017, 04:51:13 PM »
I'm almost assured that the S&P will not go up tomorrow.  I am within a hair's breadth of an odometer net worth number and have come close to this number before, but never over it.  Sorry, everyone!
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dycker1978

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #733 on: September 15, 2017, 04:53:45 PM »
I'm almost assured that the S&P will not go up tomorrow.  I am within a hair's breadth of an odometer net worth number and have come close to this number before, but never over it.  Sorry, everyone!

So you assure us the top is in then?

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #734 on: September 15, 2017, 04:55:18 PM »
I'm almost assured that the S&P will not go up tomorrow.  I am within a hair's breadth of an odometer net worth number and have come close to this number before, but never over it.  Sorry, everyone!

So you assure us the top is in then?

Heheheh.  Yeah, that, or the market is closed tomorrow because it's a weekend.  But yeah, definitely down on Monday!
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TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #735 on: September 15, 2017, 06:04:12 PM »
Maybe the top was in for cryptocurrencies?
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BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #736 on: September 17, 2017, 08:06:12 AM »
On April 11 2017 the Nasdaq Index top was in.

C-note

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #737 on: September 17, 2017, 08:32:24 AM »
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.

I think I'm going to hang this chart in my office. :)

Ditto.  Interesting to note that there are dips in the market that don't qualify as a bear market and sometimes not even as a recession.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #738 on: September 17, 2017, 09:00:35 AM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #739 on: September 17, 2017, 03:47:35 PM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

 

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #740 on: September 17, 2017, 03:51:46 PM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

And your actionable alternative is.....??
Frugalite in training.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #741 on: September 17, 2017, 04:40:59 PM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

And your actionable alternative is.....??

I'm not suggesting an alternative. Like I said i'm bullish. I've been long the market for a very long time. The thing I was trying to point out is that I feel like I have seen a "you just can't lose" mentality, and I've seen it here. That type of dogma causes me a little bit of concern. At some point the best thing to do will be to sell stocks, but of course you and I probably won't know when that time will be. What I do know is that if the whole world had that "you just can't loose" attitude I would be bearish.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #742 on: September 17, 2017, 05:49:38 PM »
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

And your actionable alternative is.....??

I'm not suggesting an alternative. Like I said i'm bullish. I've been long the market for a very long time. The thing I was trying to point out is that I feel like I have seen a "you just can't lose" mentality, and I've seen it here. That type of dogma causes me a little bit of concern. At some point the best thing to do will be to sell stocks, but of course you and I probably won't know when that time will be. What I do know is that if the whole world had that "you just can't loose" attitude I would be bearish.


In case I in any way have added to the perception of a "you just can't lose" mentality - let me be clear in saying that is definitely not my approach to investing.  My approach of plowing money into the market regardless of what is happening is not based on some blind bullish view - but moreso on the lack of actionable alternative (as tyort1 pointed out).


I would also point out that I believe there is a significant difference between the market tanking and my 'losing.'
Losses happen when I sell.  So long as I can wait out a bear market when it happens, I haven't lost.

I might lose some sleep... some hair... and some confidence... but hopefully I'll hang on (again) long enough to not lose a ton of money.

Indexing, to me, certainly isn't about being bullish... it's about realizing there isn't an obvious actionable alternative.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #743 on: September 17, 2017, 06:00:30 PM »
With apologies to Churchill:  "Indexing is the very worst form of investing.  Except for all the others."
Frugalite in training.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #744 on: September 18, 2017, 10:32:58 AM »
Wow the top is really in today! 

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #745 on: September 18, 2017, 01:01:35 PM »
At 62 yrs old, the market does concern me, on the other hand I still should have 25 years
to grow the money and can stand a down turn or two. Been through 2000 and 2008.
It was no fun but I don't even remember the hurt feelings.

Jon_Snow

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #746 on: September 18, 2017, 01:29:07 PM »
I'm going to admit that I've not every post in this thread. But I've read enough of it (and similar threads in the past) to get the gist of it.

And I can't decide if it's one of the best or worst troll jobs ever.

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #747 on: September 18, 2017, 01:41:38 PM »
Dis TOP Dough...

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #748 on: September 18, 2017, 01:42:58 PM »
I'm going to admit that I've not every post in this thread. But I've read enough of it (and similar threads in the past) to get the gist of it.

And I can't decide if it's one of the best or worst troll jobs ever.


markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #749 on: September 18, 2017, 01:45:44 PM »
I'm going to admit that I've not every post in this thread. But I've read enough of it (and similar threads in the past) to get the gist of it.

And I can't decide if it's one of the best or worst troll jobs ever.

Somewhere upthread I used the term "nicest troll", and I stand by that statement.