Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 127485 times)

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1200 on: November 19, 2017, 05:05:07 PM »
David Swensen believes market valuations are high, consequently Yale has 32% of its endowment in cash/fixed income 1 year long treasuries. This 32% is up from 15% in 2008/2009 where liquidity was used to buy equities.

Top is in.

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-david-swensen

The top is in whenever the market participants decide it's in.  The index price is set by buyers and sellers, right?

So this looks like a Carl Icahn-style power play, an attempt to move the market for personal profit.  Dave Swenson has no idea how high the market can go, but he's betting that it will go down and then he's telling everyone who will listen that it will go down, in an attempt to MAKE it go down.  All he has to do is convince enough people that he is right, and he becomes right.  It's classic market manipulation, the opposite of the old pump-and-dump con.  "Trash and cash", maybe?

Screw that guy.  And Carl Icahn, too, while we're at it.

Only 32% is in cash.  What's the other 68% in, equities?  Sounds like he's trying to convince people the top is in, but maybe he only believes that 32%.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1201 on: November 20, 2017, 12:08:03 AM »
If the top was in, can we call the bottom yet? Could this be it?

rab

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1202 on: November 20, 2017, 03:03:36 PM »
Market is ‘clearly near to a top,’ says longtime bull Jeremy Siegel - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/longtime-bull-jeremy-siegel-says-market-near-to-a-top.html

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1203 on: November 20, 2017, 04:10:35 PM »

TreeTired

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1204 on: November 20, 2017, 04:32:13 PM »
I will let you know when I dive in 100% equities. That will be a sure sign of a market top.  At the moment I have been scaling back to 25 - 30% equities, but I am 64 years old and a 50% drop in equities would hurt me far more than a 50% rise will help.
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talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1205 on: November 21, 2017, 08:33:47 AM »
I'm two decades younger than you, TreeTired. Everyone can use my bond sale this month as an indicator so you don't have to pump up your risk.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1206 on: November 21, 2017, 08:57:02 AM »
Raindrop
New top
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Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1207 on: November 21, 2017, 09:14:20 AM »
Market is ‘clearly near to a top,’ says longtime bull Jeremy Siegel - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/longtime-bull-jeremy-siegel-says-market-near-to-a-top.html

Top ajacent

Near a top=not quite a steep of a climb?  Less than 10% growth is still growth.
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grettman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1208 on: November 21, 2017, 09:29:51 AM »
Next month we will be talk about a Jeremy Siegel article that talks about how the market has so much more room to run and that we aren't even close yet.

afuera

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1209 on: November 21, 2017, 09:41:21 AM »
Raindrop
New top

Ugh, I hate you. That's gonna be stuck in my head the rest of the day now!!
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1210 on: November 21, 2017, 09:59:05 AM »
Raindrop
New top

Ugh, I hate you. That's gonna be stuck in my head the rest of the day now!!

Muahahahaha.  Goal achieved!
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Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1211 on: November 21, 2017, 10:45:38 AM »
New top, but I think my 401(k) is not in the market right now while my employer switches providers.  I was hoping for a big drop.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1212 on: November 21, 2017, 10:49:47 AM »
2594.38 @ closing today.....   IMO top is not in......

Where's 2600????

It's heeere.  Aboot time.  Top is in.
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OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1213 on: November 21, 2017, 11:03:23 AM »
I thought top was in last month?  Oh well, my bad.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1214 on: November 21, 2017, 11:59:27 AM »
I have captured this historic top moment in a screenshot. Surely this is the highest arbitrary number that can never be topped.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1215 on: November 21, 2017, 12:03:52 PM »
My mistake. It had a little bit more left to give. But as you can clearly see from looking at the big picture there is nowhere to go from here but down.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1216 on: November 21, 2017, 12:09:19 PM »


...top is in.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1217 on: November 21, 2017, 12:16:35 PM »


What goes up...might just keep going....?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1218 on: November 21, 2017, 12:19:41 PM »


or not.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1219 on: November 21, 2017, 12:22:16 PM »
That's why the buy and hold strategy is better than trying to time the market... ^^^^ looks like the wrong time to get out of the market. 

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1220 on: November 21, 2017, 12:43:26 PM »
Top is in.

Are you willing to take a leap of faith, or become an old man filled with regret, waiting to die alone?


Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1221 on: November 21, 2017, 12:51:49 PM »
I wish I could understand why I always return to this thread and it consistently makes me laugh?  There must be a word for "schadenfreude because somebody said something ridiculous"? 

Top is in.

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Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1222 on: November 21, 2017, 01:09:56 PM »


or not.

Please tell me this is photoshopped!!!!

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1223 on: November 21, 2017, 01:15:17 PM »
I must say these are rather high tops we are at now.


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BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1224 on: November 21, 2017, 02:05:32 PM »
You people know nothing, today we have a new high in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq!
The top is in.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1225 on: November 21, 2017, 02:16:15 PM »

soccerluvof4

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1226 on: November 21, 2017, 03:02:30 PM »
Hmmm......new record. Guess well know in the near future but why keep trying to predict it.
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Caoineag

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1227 on: November 21, 2017, 03:12:51 PM »


or not.

Please tell me this is photoshopped!!!!

+1 As a roller coaster lover, that photo is giving me heart palpitations...

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1228 on: November 21, 2017, 03:38:13 PM »
Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at performance and thinking it’ll recur in the future."

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1229 on: November 21, 2017, 05:03:41 PM »
2600+ today but it couldn't stick the landing so a new intra-day top and a new closing top... Looks like we missed a 2600+ closing by just a hair's breadth.   




ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1230 on: November 21, 2017, 05:09:30 PM »
2600+ today but it couldn't stick the landing so a new intra-day top and a new closing top... Looks like we missed a 2600+ closing by just a hair's breadth.   
That's it.  As clear a sign of doom as ever there were one. Anyone got a lighter I can borrow?

« Last Edit: November 21, 2017, 05:16:54 PM by ILikeDividends »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1231 on: November 21, 2017, 05:50:15 PM »

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1232 on: November 22, 2017, 07:51:19 AM »
Front and second month WTI crude and Henry Hub gas futures are in backwardation.  Top is clearly in. 
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Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1233 on: November 24, 2017, 11:23:01 AM »
Weekly close above 2600. Top is not in. Where are you Thorstache?

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1234 on: November 24, 2017, 01:20:10 PM »
New record closing (2602.42) however, I don't believe we've reached the TOP!

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1235 on: November 24, 2017, 01:25:20 PM »
New record closing (2602.42) however, I don't believe we've reached the TOP!
...perhaps you should go back and re-read the 25 pages of this thread :-P
Top is in!
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nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1236 on: November 24, 2017, 01:46:54 PM »
I found this tidbit interesting and didn't know where else to post it. 


Quote from: Bloomberg
Phrased differently, anyone heeding strategists’ calls should realize that next year’s crop bears a close resemblance to virtually every forecast they’ve made in the past. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that since 1999, Wall Street prognosticators have never once predicted a down year, putting the average annual gain at 9 percent.

...in other words, the 'smartest' financial minds predicted a bull market every single year, even in the bear markets of 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2008.  They've missed every single down market.
But don't worry, ..."[for 2018] the average estimate of nine strategists tracked by Bloomberg points ... to another year of all-time highs"

So maybe the top is not in after-all!
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1237 on: November 24, 2017, 01:53:28 PM »
Conversely, many bearish analysts have missed many bull years, including 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, and very likely 2017.

Top is in.
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Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1238 on: November 24, 2017, 02:22:36 PM »
Quote from: Bloomberg
Phrased differently, anyone heeding strategists’ calls should realize that next year’s crop bears a close resemblance to virtually every forecast they’ve made in the past. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that since 1999, Wall Street prognosticators have never once predicted a down year, putting the average annual gain at 9 percent.

...in other words, the 'smartest' financial minds predicted a bull market every single year, even in the bear markets of 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2008.  They've missed every single down market.
But don't worry, ..."[for 2018] the average estimate of nine strategists tracked by Bloomberg points ... to another year of all-time highs"

So maybe the top is not in after-all!
If you had put $1,000 into VTSMX every month since January 1999 you would have achieved an IRR of 9.09% (as of October 31). Those experts are pretty smart I guess.
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sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1239 on: November 24, 2017, 02:28:36 PM »
Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.

Aegishjalmur

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1240 on: November 24, 2017, 03:08:12 PM »
Wells Fargo Securities predicts a 70% chance of recession sometime in the next 17 months.

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/11/22/wells-fargo-formula-shows-recession-looming-in-next-18-months/

Of course the same guy said earlier this month that he has no data to base it on but his gut tells him between mid 2019, and 2021 we will have a recession.

http://www.tdtnews.com/news/article_cd83ba76-c029-11e7-96c2-9f63c5ab534b.html

That means in the last 30 days they have now predicted we will have a recession sometime in the next 35 months.

I guess Top is In.
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Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1241 on: November 24, 2017, 03:56:23 PM »
Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.
That's what we do on this here forum, and I always figured we were pretty smart...

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1242 on: November 24, 2017, 04:08:09 PM »
Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.
That's what we do on this here forum, and I always figured we were pretty smart...

I've seen no evidence of that to date...
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anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1243 on: November 24, 2017, 05:14:55 PM »
Those experts are pretty smart I guess.

Nah.  They predict 9% because that's been the historical long term return.  They don't guess correctly, they just predict the backward-looking average.
That's what we do on this here forum, and I always figured we were pretty smart...

hate to break it to you, but I am the only smart one here

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1244 on: November 24, 2017, 09:50:43 PM »
Wells Fargo Securities predicts a 70% chance of recession sometime in the next 17 months.

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/11/22/wells-fargo-formula-shows-recession-looming-in-next-18-months/

Of course the same guy said earlier this month that he has no data to base it on but his gut tells him between mid 2019, and 2021 we will have a recession.

http://www.tdtnews.com/news/article_cd83ba76-c029-11e7-96c2-9f63c5ab534b.html

That means in the last 30 days they have now predicted we will have a recession sometime in the next 35 months.

I guess Top is In.

I'm sure it will be followed up by "And really, if we haven't had one by 2021, then surely within the next 18 months after that!"

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1245 on: November 24, 2017, 10:24:58 PM »
Quote
Top is in on: April 11, 2017
I love reading these posts months later. In less than 7 months the S&P is up about 11 1/2% since this post.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1246 on: November 25, 2017, 12:01:07 AM »
My stache on April 11th, when this thread was started:

$301k

My stache as of today:

$330k

Huh, I guess the top wasn't in.

And my stache today is:

$353k

Well, there you have it - increase of $52,000 since thorstach predicted the top.
Frugalite in training.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1247 on: November 25, 2017, 04:01:53 AM »
My stache on April 11th, when this thread was started:

$301k

My stache as of today:

$330k

Huh, I guess the top wasn't in.

And my stache today is:

$353k

Well, there you have it - increase of $52,000 since thorstach predicted the top.

Is that all market gains or gains plus contributions?
Less is more.

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1248 on: November 25, 2017, 05:01:33 AM »
Stash went up 14K yesterday alone.   Top definitely in.
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nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1249 on: November 25, 2017, 06:47:25 AM »
Jeff Bezos just flipped his top.  >$100B NW. 
Top will be delivered free in 2 days?
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