Those numbers are only for the first term right? So we can expect something like 12% cagr returns over the next four years now that it’s Biden’s first term?

And as a corollary expect his second term to do poorly? Because I’m pretty sure average market returns are lower than 12%

According to this calculator:

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

The average return of the S&P for my 40 years on this planet has been 11.47% before inflation... so yeah maybe we’ll get 11 percent for the second term if there is one...

That's with dividends reinvested. So for accurate comparison we need to know if the original returns were "total returns" (I was assuming no)

edit: and it's looking more like no based on my casual checking, although I can't get the numbers to match up either way. Are we doing Jan-Jan or Jan-Dec?

This wasn’t supposed to be a serious discussion, but here we are.

That chart I pulled from showed returns from the election date (weird, right?). Looking at the dqydj site, it appears the returns it showed are total returns (not inflation adjusted), but without reinvesting dividends.

So, that dqydj site would probably be the best source if someone wanted to show total inflation-adjusted returns by term and do it from inauguration to inauguration. Now you’ve also got me interested in looking at gdp and unemployment by administration.

I feel like I’ve got enough information to decide that anyone who claims a democratic administration will be bad for stick market returns is spouting nonsense that is completely unsupported by reality.