Top is in

[solon]

Looks like the top is in... again. dangit.

Yep, I was afraid of that. It was fun while it lasted guys.

[SpaceCow]

Of course stocks go up 5+% on the day my paycheck goes to my 401k...

[JAYSLOL]

Somewhere thorstash was paying with a cat on a trampoline and we got a bounce

[techwiz]

Somewhere thorstash was paying with a cat on a trampoline and we got a bounce

What is the exchange rate on cats and trampolines these days? ;P

Maybe a bear on a Trampoline would be a better image to describe the situation.


Trampoline Top is in!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Just when you think the top is in on the top is in thread, the top is in!

[Heckler]

Looks like the top is in... again. dangit.

Curious why you think so.  VTI is still $42 below its November '21 tippie top!  And SPY is down $75!  Panic!  Run for the hills!

[Wintergreen78]

You got me curious. It looks like SP 500 total return from September 2017 until September 2022 is ….

About 10% per year.

So, the last few years have been completely average.

Uh, average top is in?

[zolotiyeruki]

Does that account for inflation?

[RWD]

Does that account for inflation?

6.1% adjusting for inflation:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

[Wintergreen78]

Does that account for inflation?

6.1% adjusting for inflation:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

0.9% below average top is in!

*after accounting for inflation.
**past performance is not indicative of future results

[markbike528CBX]

Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

[ATtiny85]

Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

[markbike528CBX]

Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

No grooming required, I married her this way.
She married me to be the one interested in finances.
BTW the SP500 is down 3.5% today.

[dandarc]

3.5 points down today. Not 3.5%.

What can this mean? Obviously, the top is in.

[dividendman]

Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

No grooming required, I married her this way.
She married me to be the one interested in finances.
BTW the SP500 is down 3.5% today.

Um.. what? The S&P500 is basically even today...

[JAYSLOL]

3.5 points down today. Not 3.5%.

What can this mean? Obviously, the top is in.

Clearly that means the S&P500 is going to fall until it hits 100points, at which point we can accurately state a 3.5 point drop is 3.5%.  Top is In!

[markbike528CBX]

Me:  OOOooh! SPX (us, sort of) is up 3 percent.
DW: Don't worry honey, it will be down 4 percent tomorrow.

Even a non interested-in-finances person knows that the TOP IS IN!

How long did the grooming take?

No grooming required, I married her this way.
She married me to be the one interested in finances.
BTW the SP500 is down 3.5% today.

Um.. what? The S&P500 is basically even today...

Yep, I  SO wanted DW to be a soothsayer, on the level of THE Thorstasche, that I misread the tea leaves (MarketWatch.com).   -0.09%

[ChpBstrd]

Top in.
Run for hills.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/cramer-powells-inflation-remarks-a-green-light-to-stay-in-stocks.html

[EscapeVelocity2020]

And just like that, the top is in, again.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).

[RWTL]

This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).

CPI is released the day before 12/13.  If that is favorable, new top will be in. 

[ender]

So many false apostles of Top is In here.

Are you sure top is in?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).

CPI is released the day before 12/13.  If that is favorable, new top will be in.

On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.7% on the jobs data - and then recovered to just -0.1%.  This market might talk itself into liking a bad CPI print.

[ChpBstrd]

This upcoming week is the top.  The Fed can't like the jobs data, and I imagine they will make that known on Dec 14 (they are in a quiet period until then).

CPI is released the day before 12/13.  If that is favorable, new top will be in.

On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.7% on the jobs data - and then recovered to just -0.1%.  This market might talk itself into liking a bad CPI print.

I've also noticed the relentless optimism. People are actually talking themselves into going long the stock market because the Fed will be raising rates by ONLY 0.50% per meeting from now on until 7.9% PCE inflation equals 2%. They envision themselves buying the dip potentially months before the recession predicted by multiple yield curve inversion, the TIPS market, the National Financial Conditions Index, the size and speed of the rate hiking cycle, falling manufacturing indices, and falling consumer sentiment. In a normal world, wouldn't unmistakable recession signals and 0.5% rate hikes be scaring investors into treasuries?

Of course, optimism is always a sign of the top.

[Wintergreen78]

Top in.
Run for hills.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/cramer-powells-inflation-remarks-a-green-light-to-stay-in-stocks.html

Iron Maiden top is in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86URGgqONvA

[MustacheAndaHalf]

CNN Fear & Greed Index shows "greed", but not yet "extreme greed".  The top is almost in.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

[2Birds1Stone]

Four weeks without a post......y'all really scared this time?

2023 top is in ;)

[Tyson]

I think we're all just waiting for our Illuminati lord thorstach to initiate the apocalypse ritual.

[RWD]

Four weeks without a post......y'all really scared this time?

2023 top is in ;)

Everyone was hoping that this thread dropping off the first page would signal the bottom being in:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/msg3095078/#msg3095078

[ender]

How can top be in when it was already in? All downhill from here

[EscapeVelocity2020]

And just like that, the top is in, again.

I limit myself to calling the top only once per month.  January Top is In.

[Wintergreen78]

Four weeks without a post......y'all really scared this time?

2023 top is in ;)

Everyone was hoping that this thread dropping off the first page would signal the bottom being in:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/msg3095078/#msg3095078

Shoot! We were so close!

Now it is like Punxsutawney Phil. 4 more weeks of the top being in.

[techwiz]

Shoot! We were so close!

Now it is like Punxsutawney Phil. 4 more weeks of the top being in.

Ground Hog top is in!

[JAYSLOL]

Shoot! We were so close!

Now it is like Punxsutawney Phil. 4 more weeks of the top being in.

Ground Hog top is in!

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

[ATtiny85]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

[Glenstache]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

[dignam]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

[ATtiny85]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

[Villanelle]

My first top?  I remember not quite knowing if it was in yet.

[dragoncar]

But the market is up today.  Don't we usually call the top when the market is down?  Market top is backwards looking

[ender]

But the market is up today.  Don't we usually call the top when the market is down?  Market top is backwards looking

we only call the top in when the day ends in "day"

[ATtiny85]

But the market is up today.  Don't we usually call the top when the market is down?  Market top is backwards looking

we only call the top in when the day ends in "day"

It's a good point. Those are the only ones where we can be confident that Top is In. Simply too much uncertainty in the others...

Anyone is free to sift through the thread and try to find counterpoints to it.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other

[Glenstache]

The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other

As long as fear is back and earnings will be a reality check, then the top is in.

[OurTown]

I was afraid I missed it.

[Wintergreen78]

The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other

As long as fear is back and earnings will be a reality check, then the top is in.

VIX and XIV have to do their thing too.

[JAYSLOL]

The beauty of calling the top in this thread is that you are always right, one way or the other

As long as fear is back and earnings will be a reality check, then the top is in.

VIX and XIV have to do their thing too.

Also SPY something something. 

[Scandium]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

I determined that the top was in, but it was early. It was a premature evaluation.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

I determined that the top was in, but it was early. It was a premature evaluation.

I was dreaming about the Top last night, it was a nocturnal envision.

[Zoot]

Watch out for that first Top, it’s a doozie

There is no first, there is only "only" when it comes to Top.

Watch out for Top, it's a doozie.

Yeah, but everyone remembers their first Top.

It was exciting but over way too quickly.

Premature Top is In.

I determined that the top was in, but it was early. It was a premature evaluation.

I was dreaming about the Top last night, it was a nocturnal envision.

If the Top lasts more than four hours, seek medical attention.