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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: thorstach on April 11, 2017, 08:26:07 AM

Title: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 11, 2017, 08:26:07 AM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on April 11, 2017, 11:02:34 AM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

mrpercentage, is that you?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: powskier on April 11, 2017, 11:12:44 AM
The tea leaf pattern was auspicious this morning. It clearly means that vital things must be done in a certain way at a certain time and before another time.
 Also, the moon.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on April 11, 2017, 04:50:43 PM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

mrpercentage, is that you?

LOL
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: checkedoutat39 on April 11, 2017, 09:10:30 PM
Fear is back, VIX above 15

The old saying from the trading floor is you sell vol when it's at 15 and buy it when it's at 20.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on April 12, 2017, 06:27:49 AM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.
Are you putting your money where your mouth is?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 12, 2017, 01:55:05 PM
And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 12, 2017, 02:06:43 PM
You should add your prediction to this thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on April 12, 2017, 02:15:59 PM
And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."
Are you putting your money where your mouth is? How so?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ysette9 on April 12, 2017, 02:26:00 PM
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Oh wait, that was just a little rain this morning. Don't sell anything and get back to living your life.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Tonyahu on April 12, 2017, 02:45:43 PM
We avoid noise in these parts, fellow.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 13, 2017, 11:10:21 AM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 13, 2017, 11:29:30 AM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on April 13, 2017, 12:16:01 PM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
VIX is up, XIV is broken up, VXX is breaking out... Please, I need more of your detailed analysis of random indices! What about VXZ? UUP?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 13, 2017, 12:22:47 PM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
VIX is up, XIV is broken up, VXX is breaking out... Please, I need more of your detailed analysis of random indices! What about VXZ? UUP?

For the VIX challenged, SPY broke it's uptrend support:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9T_T-8VwAAARbc.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Heroes821 on April 13, 2017, 12:24:45 PM
I love this thread, it's like watching a CNN ticker of nonsense.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 13, 2017, 12:31:58 PM
It's modern day phrenology.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on April 13, 2017, 12:40:57 PM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.
VIX is up, XIV is broken up, VXX is breaking out... Please, I need more of your detailed analysis of random indices! What about VXZ? UUP?

For the VIX challenged, SPY broke it's uptrend support:
I have no idea what that sentence means. Do you?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 13, 2017, 01:28:26 PM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on April 13, 2017, 02:26:51 PM
nice to meet you thorstach.   Are you shorting?  If not, why not?

Most on this board prefer to invest for the long term and don't really follow short term movements very much, preferring to buy and hold with periodic asset rebalancing.

You might do okay from speculating, but most of the new arriving investment gurus on this forum have disappeared with their tales between their legs over the years.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on April 13, 2017, 02:28:32 PM
RED DOW! Bahahahahaha
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Scortius on April 13, 2017, 02:41:44 PM
Are you sure, my model(TM) suggests continued upward linear growth.  Just look, the chart makes it clear, and you know it has to be true because there's a chart with lines on it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: checkedoutat39 on April 13, 2017, 02:44:56 PM
Any Elliott Wavers here? Is this latest move a 2, a 4 or an A?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on April 13, 2017, 03:02:30 PM
Fibbonachie 50 level broken and kondratieff winter due.  Also, one of those death cross thingies.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 13, 2017, 03:11:44 PM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.

Oh no, go ahead and make the call right now using all of these facts and analysis.  We'll still give you full credit.  Promise!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 13, 2017, 03:56:03 PM
Fibbonachie 50 level broken and kondratieff winter due.  Also, one of those death cross thingies.

Don't forget the Bennett-Gurdjieff systematics.

Or the magic 8-ball.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Laserjet3051 on April 13, 2017, 04:35:45 PM
Appreciate your insight and comments thorstach. But for buy and hold investors who have a long time horizon before ever needing to "sell' (aside from rebalancing), the "top" as you call it, has little to no meaning for our investing behaviors. It could be the "top," middle, or "bottom" and I would still faithfully follow my investing policy statement. If you are correct, and I admit, you may be right about this, it doesn't change a thing for me, and likely, many others here on this board. But together, we will find out if you are correct, so grab a basket of popcorn. This could get interesting.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 13, 2017, 04:48:12 PM
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

For those who don't understand VIX index thingies or a simple chart i'll simplify it further. This market was pumped up by the Fed's QE, the fact that it's over and they now have to unwind their trillions is enough of a reason for valuations to come back down to earth. Is there a precedent to backtest against for a market on QE steroids and the aftermath ? Who will save the day next time there's a 50% drop with interest rates near 0?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Laserjet3051 on April 13, 2017, 05:12:06 PM
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

For those who don't understand VIX index thingies or a simple chart i'll simplify it further. This market was pumped up by the Fed's QE, the fact that it's over and they now have to unwind their trillions is enough of a reason for valuations to come back down to earth. Is there a precedent to backtest against for a market on QE steroids and the aftermath ? Who will save the day next time there's a 50% drop with interest rates near 0?

Good points Thorstache. I am very familiar with what VIX tracks and the impact of years of QE on equity valuations, not to mention the fed beginning to unwind all of the toxic assets still on their balance sheet. Agreed, that for folks with substantial cash on the sidelines, a lump sum investment at the peak may not yield as high a return as DCA into the market as valuations plummet. There are great discussions about this specific scenario over at bogleheads where the overwhelming consensus was still to not try and time entry/re-entry in with new dollars. This was empirically demonstrated using backtesting.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 13, 2017, 05:22:14 PM
I do love these market timing threads for their entertainment value. :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on April 13, 2017, 06:07:06 PM
A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow. Anyway, there goes support and VXX breakout going into a long weekend.

If you're not going to put your money where your mouth is, at least add your concrete prediction to this thread so we can all laugh at how bad it is. (along with all the others too, including mine, so there won't be any reason to feel bad about being wrong)  And hey, maybe you'll actually be right!  Stranger things have happened.


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/calling-the-top/


Mine is not a prediction but an analysis based on facts and charts to conclude that we have already seen the top of this bull rally. Posting in that thread would be "cheating" since i've made the call after the fact.

It's just squiggles on a chart to me. What will be interesting is where the market will be in 3 months and greater from now. I've seen plenty of people come up with squiggles on charts and their predictions  typically don't work out that well.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 13, 2017, 06:37:56 PM
I think we're all failing to overlook something here, and that is:

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2751
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on April 13, 2017, 10:47:53 PM
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

For those who don't understand VIX index thingies or a simple chart i'll simplify it further. This market was pumped up by the Fed's QE, the fact that it's over and they now have to unwind their trillions is enough of a reason for valuations to come back down to earth. Is there a precedent to backtest against for a market on QE steroids and the aftermath ? Who will save the day next time there's a 50% drop with interest rates near 0?

But you're probably not as smart as you think you are, and that's true independent of what the market does tomorrow. I understand VIX index thingies thoroughly, but it doesn't matter one flying fck; the market will do what it does and in my opinion technical analysis is useless in deciphering it. To your more macro questions, I predict the Fed will unwind QE in a slow, predictable, and telegraphed manner. If you think you can beat the moneyed crowds to the punch, have at it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Dropbear on April 14, 2017, 12:49:03 AM
There are great discussions about this specific scenario over at bogleheads where the overwhelming consensus was still to not try and time entry/re-entry in with new dollars. This was empirically demonstrated using backtesting.

Could you post a link, please?  I had a look for the thread, but didn't have enough info to go with in order to find it...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 14, 2017, 01:03:49 AM
I love these threads.  Doom & gloom predictions used to spook me, but there've been so many of them that I've become inoculated. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Gumption on April 14, 2017, 08:28:59 AM
Markets gonna do what its going to do. Personally, I am working toward ~5 yr FIRE, so bring on that crash now I guess.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Heckler on April 14, 2017, 09:40:18 AM
I am happy if my 28% US allocation comes down to its 25% intended allocation without me selling with trading fees.  I am having trouble keeping up buying bonds to mainain my 25% bonds allocation, even though I've bought $30k bonds in Q1-17
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on April 14, 2017, 04:31:07 PM
I think we're all failing to overlook something here, and that is:

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2751

^Hilarious!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dixonge on April 14, 2017, 08:12:40 PM
What about newcomers or people that have cash on the sidelines, is it responsible to tell them to go all in right now ?

Are you looking for advice for yourself or someone you know? Because unpaid advice is worth every penny you spend on it.

But seriously, most people here view charts and patterns as a fool's game.

Having said that, as mentioned in another thread, Bill Gross predicted a very meager market after the bottom in 2009. So far he was massively wrong, and anyone following his advice and making very conservative moves missed out on a major bull run that has lasted eight years! But hey, he was only managing $270 Billion at the time. I'm sure your charts would have steered you clear of that bad advice...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: webguy on April 14, 2017, 10:20:28 PM
Oh yes the support for the ABC is no longer equal to the XYZ and the LMNOP score is too high so the blah blah blah...

This guy has been watching too much financial news. Try getting outside once in a while!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on April 15, 2017, 12:54:10 AM
Thorstach,  it can be scary to get into the market.

Why not decide on your asset allocation and just drip feed into the market over a year, and you will buy cheap into your crash.

Please do not go 100% cash,  that is likely to be a duff idea.

We don't always recommend people lump sum here.  The data show that lump sum does better than DCA 70% of the time, so DCA will do better 30% of the time.  Nobody knows when either strategy will outperform, but both are good options.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 17, 2017, 01:27:44 PM
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 17, 2017, 01:40:43 PM
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?

(https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2891/33260496104_d7b1bf63bc_b.jpg)

My cousin's best friend's brother once served Warren Buffet a coke at McDonald's and they hooked me up with this ^^^ financial scoop. Needless to say I sold my stocks and bough gold, ammo and sardines - lots of them. Good luck to us all! :(
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Shade00 on April 17, 2017, 01:48:40 PM
I'm just going to keep buying, whether the markets go up or down. If the markets go down, I don't lose my shares, they just go down in value for a short while. If the markets go up, well, good. I get to FIRE more quickly. I did recently decide to start buying some international funds, though, since a little diversification is healthy and international stocks seem cheap right now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on April 24, 2017, 09:56:53 AM
Buddy you still around? VIX dropped over 20% earlier today, hope you didn't get margin-called.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on April 24, 2017, 11:12:22 AM
Buddy you still around? VIX dropped over 20% earlier today, hope you didn't get margin-called.

Of course not.  There's a reason why actively managed funds that are still around often seem to outperform the market.  Survivorship bias.  The losers fade into obscurity.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 24, 2017, 11:27:38 AM
When you try to time the market, you are competing against full time professionally managed funds, with some of the best minds (and algorithms!) in the world.  You're gonna lose.

On the other hand, indexing means that those smart people actually work for you.  When the market goes up, they win, but so do you.

PS, I'm leaving out hedging, that's a whole other topic.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: FLBiker on April 24, 2017, 02:20:30 PM
It's modern day phrenology.

Excellent analogy!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Fishfindr on April 24, 2017, 02:35:18 PM
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?


I guess we all need to conform to some standard of dialogue on this board. Don't offer opinions that might be contrary to the belief of the masses or face the consequences!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 24, 2017, 03:15:34 PM
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?


I guess we all need to conform to some standard of dialogue on this board. Don't offer opinions that might be contrary to the belief of the masses or face the consequences!

I'm not sure what conforming has to do with anything.  You're welcome to post any ol' crazy theory you want.  Don't expect it to go unchallenged though.  Of course the only real consequences are your account balances if you're currently sitting in cash waiting for that imminent crash.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 24, 2017, 03:16:43 PM
Re: the top is in.

Well, is it?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on April 24, 2017, 03:25:34 PM

I guess we all need to conform to some standard of dialogue on this board. Don't offer opinions that might be contrary to the belief of the masses or face the consequences!

Yes, I think some standard is required.

Opinions contrary to the belief of the masses are not only welcomed but encouraged. In fact, I think this entire community holds some core views that are contrary to that of the masses.

I think that constantly having an opinion that this is the top (or bottom, or whatever) of the market, and not expecting to get ridiculed when wrong is naïve. Especially since it's the very fact that these predictions are constantly made is what makes them ridiculous.

One day, someone is going to say the market will crash because of blah blah blah and the market will crash. Then that person will say how they're a genius, but all of these other threads will show they were just lucky.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on April 24, 2017, 03:33:01 PM
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?


I guess we all need to conform to some standard of dialogue on this board. Don't offer opinions that might be contrary to the belief of the masses or face the consequences!

Nonsense.  You are vigorously encouraged to voice your opinions, especially when they make specific predictions about timing the market, because then there is a(n ever expanding) concrete record of calamitous predictions for us to point to when the world does not end.  Predicting the future is harder than it looks.

Don't worry, someday one of you will be right.  In the meantime, you're all going to continue to be wrong.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on April 24, 2017, 05:01:32 PM
So how's everyone feeling today?  Is this the new top?


I guess we all need to conform to some standard of dialogue on this board. Don't offer opinions that might be contrary to the belief of the masses or face the consequences!

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

Not saying opinions are evil, but finance has a history of manipulation.  Wrong ideas should be challenged to protect the innocent.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 25, 2017, 10:46:39 AM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

http://www.businessinsider.com/mystery-trader-50-cent-cant-stop-betting-on-a-stock-market-shock-2017-4?utm_content=bufferf1cd6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Is that you 50cent?

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 25, 2017, 11:23:55 AM
Greed is back, VIX below 11, XIV increasing rapidly, SPY following, CAT and MCD earnings are pushing the market higher.

The top isn't in!
 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on April 25, 2017, 11:49:00 AM
I think the original top was the bottom and the new top is in. Of course tomorrow could prove me wrong, yet again, and the old top could be the new bottom. Wait, are we talking about the market. Oh no I've gone cross-eyed! 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 25, 2017, 12:00:52 PM
Up, down, turn around, please don't let me hit the ground...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on April 25, 2017, 01:50:24 PM
The annoying thing is, one of these days the next investing prodigy will come to these boards and say there's going to be a crash and time it right, then we will need to listen to them go on and on about their investing prowess.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 25, 2017, 02:18:02 PM
Very true. We'll reply, "You were lucky! Now tell us when to buy at the low.", and the prodigy, like a best selling author afraid to publish their second book, will reply, "I'm not going to tell you losers when to buy. You dissed me last time!"

If we're lucky, the prodigy will then storm off to elitetrader to make a living as a day trader and leave the MMM forums alone.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farmecologist on April 25, 2017, 02:23:33 PM
The annoying thing is, one of these days the next investing prodigy will come to these boards and say there's going to be a crash and time it right, then we will need to listen to them go on and on about their investing prowess.

Yes - very true! 

How about this....the top will be in.....at some point. 

Obviously, nobody can read the future.



Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on April 25, 2017, 02:23:47 PM
The annoying thing is, one of these days the next investing prodigy will come to these boards and say there's going to be a crash and time it right, then we will need to listen to them go on and on about their investing prowess.

Yep, they're been showing up pretty regularly since the forum got started at around Dow 12k.  They got pretty pushy about it around Dow 14-15k as we crossed the previous high water mark, and then again around 18k with all of the momentum trading talk.  Now here we are pushing 21k and they're still making the same dire predictions, and some day they may be right.

But it is not this day.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 25, 2017, 03:07:51 PM
The annoying thing is, one of these days the next investing prodigy will come to these boards and say there's going to be a crash and time it right, then we will need to listen to them go on and on about their investing prowess.

Step 1 - predict an immanent crash
[Crash doesn't happen]
Step 2 - move prediction to NEXT year
Step 3 - REPEAT Step 1 and 2 until a crash happens
Step 4 - profit from your new status as stock market guru ("omg, he predicted the crash!!")
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: v8rx7guy on April 25, 2017, 03:09:38 PM
The top was not in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: rob in cal on April 25, 2017, 03:11:15 PM
   This thread brings me back to my internet surfing habits of 2008-2010 when I fell victim to recession porn websites and would spend way too much time reading about further market crashes, a total economy meltdown and the coming Argentinaification of the US economy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on April 25, 2017, 04:24:14 PM
The annoying thing is, one of these days the next investing prodigy will come to these boards and say there's going to be a crash and time it right, then we will need to listen to them go on and on about their investing prowess.

Step 1 - predict an immanent crash
[Crash doesn't happen]
Step 2 - move prediction to NEXT year
Step 3 - REPEAT Step 1 and 2 until a crash happens
Step 4 - profit from your new status as stock market guru ("omg, he predicted the crash!!")

I feel like this is what end of the world cults do too, just replace crash with end of the world.... except the end of the world never comes and crashes do.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thenextguy on April 25, 2017, 06:59:32 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1nw7ws.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1nw7ws)
via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on April 25, 2017, 07:03:59 PM
The top was not in.

Well, the top would be March 1st with a close of 21,115.55 (wouldn't it?), and this thread was started on April 11th. We still haven't beat that high.

I'm definitely not arguing for a crash, just pointing out the numbers.
I'm still sticking to my monthly contribution plan, which is exactly what I plan to keep doing.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Bateaux on April 25, 2017, 07:38:19 PM
My investments increased over 10k yesterday.  Likely close to that again today.  Guess I should have bailed last week!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: v8rx7guy on April 25, 2017, 08:54:25 PM
The top was not in.

Well, the top would be March 1st with a close of 21,115.55 (wouldn't it?), and this thread was started on April 11th. We still haven't beat that high.

I'm definitely not arguing for a crash, just pointing out the numbers.
I'm still sticking to my monthly contribution plan, which is exactly what I plan to keep doing.

I read it as "It's only down from here" and it is now up since April 11... but I agree it can be interpreted differently
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on April 25, 2017, 09:05:51 PM
I read it as "It's only down from here" and it is now up since April 11... but I agree it can be interpreted differently

Ah, fair enough.
Good point.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Paul der Krake on April 25, 2017, 09:16:23 PM
It's going down
I'm yelling timber
You better move
You better dance
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dixonge on April 26, 2017, 03:34:59 AM
   This thread brings me back to my internet surfing habits of 2008-2010 when I fell victim to recession porn websites and would spend way too much time reading about further market crashes, a total economy meltdown and the coming Argentinaification of the US economy.

Yeah, but did you buy gold near its peak? :(

*sob*
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on April 26, 2017, 05:49:24 AM
I would be more impressed if someone could correctly call the middle.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 26, 2017, 08:21:03 AM
The top is still in. XIV triple top with VIX bouncing back. US Steel down 26% as reality sets in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: UnleashHell on April 26, 2017, 08:28:27 AM
The top is still in. XIV triple top with VIX bouncing back. US Steel down 26% as reality sets in.

you used the s&p against its 50 day average recently - hows that doing?

US steel down
Irobot up
twitter up

on their own all meaningless.

like your posts.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on April 26, 2017, 11:36:13 AM
The top was not in.

Well, the top would be March 1st with a close of 21,115.55 (wouldn't it?), and this thread was started on April 11th. We still haven't beat that high.

I'm definitely not arguing for a crash, just pointing out the numbers.
I'm still sticking to my monthly contribution plan, which is exactly what I plan to keep doing.

I don't know anyone in finance that cares about the DJIA.

The S&P 500 just hit a new intra-day high today, though.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 26, 2017, 11:47:25 AM
The S&P 500 just hit a new intra-day high today, though.

In other words.... the top is in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on April 26, 2017, 12:26:38 PM
The S&P 500 just hit a new intra-day high today, though.

In other words.... the top is in?

meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. Fellow forum members, please keep us updated if and when you start taking a more aggressive investment approach, it will aid some of us in leaving the party before the music stops. :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on April 26, 2017, 12:44:24 PM
The S&P 500 just hit a new intra-day high today, though.

In other words.... the top is in?

Hahahaha
:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on April 26, 2017, 01:15:14 PM
Fellow forum members, please keep us updated if and when you start taking a more aggressive investment approach, it will aid some of us in leaving the party before the music stops. :)

OMG the market is on a tear !
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DoubleDown on April 26, 2017, 01:16:20 PM
The top is still in. XIV triple top with VIX bouncing back. US Steel down 26% as reality sets in.

You're a billionaire, right? If you can so accurately predict market movements and issue terse, super-duper-important-sounding market acronyms and indicators, there is no reason you should not have billions of dollars. If by chance you're not a billionaire, why would anyone listen to you?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 26, 2017, 01:18:53 PM
meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. Fellow forum members, please keep us updated if and when you start taking a more aggressive investment approach, it will aid some of us in leaving the party before the music stops. :)

Most forum members use an IPS and don't change their positions using crystal ball projections. Of course, some may have not been invested in 2008/9 and their IPS will wall by the wayside when a declining market rears its ugly head.

And, both the fibonacci candlestick pattern and fabian numistatic charts, in an "W-M" schema, show an increasing market for the foreseeable future. Onward and upward!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 26, 2017, 02:21:49 PM
Red close, looking like a double top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 26, 2017, 02:29:36 PM
Red close, looking like a double top.

^RUT had a green close that is >5x the red DJ close, indicating an inverse dead cat bounce.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on April 26, 2017, 02:43:58 PM
Red close, looking like a double top.

^RUT had a green close that is >5x the red DJ close, indicating an inverse dead cat bounce.

O.O
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 26, 2017, 03:02:51 PM
Red close, looking like a double top.

^RUT had a green close that is >5x the red DJ close, indicating an inverse dead cat bounce.

(http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/83/83206ae67da70662c246b9cca0b92d2da77cae199a14e8d23e102739d5192b2e.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on April 26, 2017, 03:32:43 PM
Red close, looking like a double top.

^RUT had a green close that is >5x the red DJ close, indicating an inverse dead cat bounce.

So...cats are flying? Is this similar to "when pigs fly?"
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on April 26, 2017, 03:33:57 PM
Well I for one am happy I sold everything and went 100% to cash and gold bullion thanks to Thorstach's advice. Thorstach can clearly tell the difference between an uptrend and a downtrend without the need to wait for data from the future.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: redrocker on April 27, 2017, 07:24:45 AM
Red close, looking like a double top.

Are you really going to switch from making forecasts of the future to making observations of real time data and think that you'll just get away with it?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on April 27, 2017, 12:58:17 PM
Red close, looking like a double top.

Are you really going to switch from making forecasts of the future to making observations of real time data and think that you'll just get away with it?

I'll give him a pass if he's wearing a green visor while doing it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: boarder42 on April 28, 2017, 11:06:20 AM
i'll add this to my daily viewing of the chive.  this is pretty good stuff.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Padonak on April 28, 2017, 11:20:00 AM
Top was in, but not anymore. You missed it, sukcas.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 28, 2017, 11:29:19 AM
Top is still in and ATH intact according to my charts. VIX ramping back up, XIV unable to break out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 28, 2017, 11:30:27 AM
OK, now I know you're a troll.  But damn if you don't make me smile!  Thanks man. 

I want to play too!!!! I found this random financial advice generator on the internet
https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

First advice randomly generated:

Uninsured CDOs: in the aeronautics marketplace, always divest from them.

Next bit:

In counterparty markets, plan to restructure senior-rated derivatives.

Man, this is fun, wheeeee!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 28, 2017, 11:33:50 AM
Top is still in and ATH intact according to my charts. VIX ramping back up, XIV unable to break out.

I'm waiting to hear from Lokistach. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on April 28, 2017, 12:10:13 PM
Top is still in and ATH intact according to my charts. VIX ramping back up, XIV unable to break out.

How can the top "still" be in?  If it's in now, and the market has gone up, then it can't have been in before.

You might as well claim "today I am the oldest age I will ever be."  On the day you die you'll be right.  Every other day you said it you're wrong.  Being right that last day does not mean you have any predictive powers, it means you kept guessing wrong until you finally got lucky and died.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on April 28, 2017, 12:33:58 PM
The top of the market is in and has been in since before i started the thread. The top being the march 1st all time high which remains unbroken.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on April 28, 2017, 12:34:42 PM
This thread is great.  "Top is in" spelled backwards is "nisi pot."  Isn't that what you use on your sinuses? 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on April 28, 2017, 12:36:55 PM
This thread is great.  "Top is in" spelled backwards is "nisi pot."  Isn't that what you use on your sinuses?

Neti pot! I water my nose everyday with my snot pot.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on April 28, 2017, 12:40:35 PM
(https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53323bb4e4b0cebc6a28ffa2/t/57aa02e09de4bb4e83162c66/1470759650971/)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on April 28, 2017, 01:01:21 PM
Quote from: tyort1
OK, now I know you're a troll.

I think that's going too far. Most people consider a 'troll' to be a complete piece of shit dirtbag (or am I wrong on that?). IMO, it's saved for when you're completely 'done' with someone AND you're very certain you're 100% right. It's not playful banter.

Quote from: sol
How can the top "still" be in?

You're a very reasonable guy. You know you're technically correct. But in real world terms, if the market pretty much topped out here and then crashed... you'd really have to say he called it, wouldn't you?

Isn't it enough to be pretty damn sure he has no idea if the top's in, and he'll be proven wrong beyond any measure soon enough? I mean, even if he did basically 'call it', you could still argue that he didn't know. All you'd have to do is ask him to call the bottom next to prove it.

Honestly, if he got that one pretty close-enough, too... you'd have to start listening.

thorstach,
Have you ever called a top before? Someone else had a good point in that your skill ought to've made you a billionaire by now. Please address why you aren't (or confirm that you are). Maybe this is your first opportunity ever to put your wizardry into practice? Can you show your methods in back-testing? Please give us a market chart with the ups and downs annotated with notes that follow your VIX-based rules.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Gumption on April 28, 2017, 01:02:30 PM
im following this thread. therapeutic.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on April 28, 2017, 01:24:55 PM
^RUT had a green close that is >5x the red DJ close, indicating an inverse dead cat bounce.
I thought this was hilarious, until I looked it up and realized there is a trading pattern that is actually called that. I can't imagine being in a Wall Street firm and saying that with a straight face to a co-worker.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on April 28, 2017, 01:30:16 PM
Quote from: tyort1
OK, now I know you're a troll.
I think that's going too far. Most people consider a 'troll' to be a complete piece of shit dirtbag (or am I wrong on that?). IMO, it's saved for when you're completely 'done' with someone AND you're very certain you're 100% right. It's not playful banter.
You're wrong on that. Trolling commonly refers to posting something provocative and usually baseless to spark a back and forth.

Quote from: AZryan
thorstach,
Have you ever called a top before? Someone else had a good point in that your skill ought to've made you a billionaire by now. Please address why you aren't (or confirm that you are).
Seems to have more success in trolling than in market timing.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on April 28, 2017, 01:36:41 PM
Quote from: Mr. Green
... I can't imagine being in a Wall Street firm and saying that with a straight face to a co-worker.

How many workplaces have weirdass jargon? Like... all of them, maybe? And then socially, how many groups make up even more weird shit, seemingly with the intention of trying to keep other people from understanding them? People love to feel they know cool 'insider' shit the rest of us don't know. Now let's talk about who here's going to "FIRE next @ 4% on their 'stache".
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on April 28, 2017, 01:43:04 PM
The top of the market is in and has been in since before i started the thread. The top being the march 1st all time high which remains unbroken.

So you're predicting that the market will never break the March 1 close?

Or did you just mean "today is not the all the time high thus far"?  Because that's a much easier claim to make, requiring no knowledge of the future whatsoever, and is true most of the time.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 28, 2017, 01:58:17 PM
Top is still in and ATH intact according to my charts. VIX ramping back up, XIV unable to break out.

My charts show an inverse head and shoulders coupled with a rising wedge indicating a solid footing for further gains.


(You do realize that XIV is (an ETF that is) the inverse of VIX, right? If VIX goes up, XIV goes down. It's tied to medium length VIX futures. Claiming that VIX is rising and XIV is decreasing is redundant.)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on April 28, 2017, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: aspiringnomad
You're wrong on that. Trolling commonly refers to posting something provocative and usually baseless to spark a back and forth.

He didn't say 'trolling', he called the dude a Troll. If I said you were lying about something, that's at least weaker than me just labeling you a Liar -like that's all you do, that's who you are.

Would you call yourself a liar? I'll assume 'no', but have you ever told a lie? Yes. And what do you call someone who told a lie? A liar. So you're a Liar.

See, I hope you're calling that bullshit, but that was a trick this slimy jackass Ray Comfort went around doing to people (sometimes with jackass Kurt Cameron at his side). It's 'cuz the label 'Liar' or 'Troll' really comes across as an absolute, not just referring to a particular incident, and much harsher.

On top of that... I think you still have to be pretty damn sure someone is simply trolling before you throw even that around. Maybe no one ever did it to you, and you can't relate?

He's seems at least very harmless so far. That's not trolling yet, IMO.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Hoosier Daddy on April 28, 2017, 02:07:29 PM
I honestly got a little nervous about this topic for a second when I first saw it. Then I saw the mustachian response and calmed down. To the OP: I think this is why people got so mad - these "scare" tactics can force good people to make really dumb investment decisions.

It took me a second to remember that I am well diversified across all possible financial scenarios and then I chilled the $%&# out lol. Let the market go up, or go down, I don't care lol. I'm ready!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 28, 2017, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: aspiringnomad
You're wrong on that. Trolling commonly refers to posting something provocative and usually baseless to spark a back and forth.

He didn't say 'trolling', he called the dude a Troll. If I said you were lying about something, that's at least weaker than me just labeling you a Liar -like that's all you do, that's who you are.

Would you call yourself a liar? I'll assume 'no', but have you ever told a lie? Yes. And what do you call someone who told a lie? A liar. So you're a Liar.

See, I hope you're calling that bullshit, but that was a trick this slimy jackass Ray Comfort went around doing to people (sometimes with jackass Kurt Cameron at his side). It's 'cuz the label 'Liar' or 'Troll' really comes across as an absolute, not just referring to a particular incident, and much harsher.

On top of that... I think you still have to be pretty damn sure someone is simply trolling before you throw even that around. Maybe no one ever did it to you, and you can't relate?

He's seems at least very harmless so far. That's not trolling yet, IMO.

Haha, I'm sure thorstach is an adult and can defend himself just fine.  If he wants to.  Which he hasn't.  I stick by my claim that he created this thread to troll us.  Thus he is a troll.  I can't wait for his next post about a triple top and the inverse downward swing that will signify!  So far, he's called the top!  Called the top again!  and now I'd love to see him call the top a third time!!!  Fun!

Seriously I've been a ridiculously good mood all day (and yesterday), this is all just a bit of light hearted banter.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 28, 2017, 02:37:31 PM
I honestly got a little nervous about this topic for a second when I first saw it. Then I saw the mustachian response and calmed down. To the OP: I think this is why people got so mad - these "scare" tactics can force good people to make really dumb investment decisions.

It took me a second to remember that I am well diversified across all possible financial scenarios and then I chilled the $%&# out lol. Let the market go up, or go down, I don't care lol. I'm ready!

I used to be the same - I'd come here, see these dire predictions, get a bit panicked and then take a while to calm down after other posters came in (and reality didn't cooperate with the prediction).

My favorite was the "Red Dow" thread a guy called mrpercentage posted about a year ago.  Oh dear god that is worth a read.  Same idea, same mentality, same utter failure to predict anything.

So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"


Hahahaha.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on April 28, 2017, 03:23:27 PM
So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"

For the lazy:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on April 28, 2017, 03:30:29 PM
So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"

For the lazy:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Thanks Eric!  BTW, here is what the past year has looked like since the "Red Dow" prediction:

(http://markets.money.cnn.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z678f7c0az90dc54f289c948f8a0c0d035b4ae7a29)

Seriously, I cannot stop laughing!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on April 28, 2017, 06:15:26 PM
So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"

For the lazy:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Thanks Eric!  BTW, here is what the past year has looked like since the "Red Dow" prediction:

(http://markets.money.cnn.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z678f7c0az90dc54f289c948f8a0c0d035b4ae7a29)

Seriously, I cannot stop laughing!

Mr. P is actually up now.  I still track his predictions.  Note that I only put in 1 share off each.  The last move I saw him make was OHI  and it was a substantial amount of his holdings when he purchased it but you would never get the percentage.

Of course VTI is up 14.5% since April 2015 when he made his predictions.

 

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on April 28, 2017, 08:09:55 PM
I just developed this advanced nominal price history of the S&P500 in Excel. I think this says something meaningful about the future, if you care about your money. You should definitely take action because of this chart. I wonder which point thorstach is predicting from?

(https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/137IOoMGMfc-AsqmMP66o3XB0zI_9_laxOqjUpUqFRDU/pub?w=823&h=411)
The chart randomly selects a 1 or a 2. =RANDBETWEEN(1,2)
Then it multiplies the previous number by either 1.005 or 0.9953 depending on if a 1 or a 2 came up. =IF(B5=2,C4*1.005,C4*0.9953)
I entertained myself for about 30 minutes by hitting the enter key and then coming up with plausible sounding explanations for why it did what it did. It's even more entertaining if you add dates.

Edit: Struggling with Sheets here. New chart now, image only so hopefully it will stay.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 28, 2017, 08:15:24 PM
I just developed this advanced nominal price history of the S&P500 in Excel. I think this says something meaningful about the future, if you care about your money. You should definitely take action because of this chart. I wonder which point thorstach is predicting from?

A Himalayan peak is obviously forming at the end there. It's about at a K2 level. With an additional pomerian monoplate influencing the RAND function, there are still legs to go in the market.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JoeBlow on April 28, 2017, 08:24:07 PM
I just developed this advanced nominal price history of the S&P500 in Excel. I think this says something meaningful about the future, if you care about your money. You should definitely take action because of this chart. I wonder which point thorstach is predicting from?

(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lrF14Rr-ko6ZF5DwEhxoBLdyG6Xu55xNL7T8q41vUho/pubchart?oid=181369655&format=image)
The chart randomly selects a 1 or a 2. =RANDBETWEEN(1,2)
Then it multiplies the previous number by either 1.005 or 0.9953 depending on if a 1 or a 2 came up. =IF(B5=2,C4*1.005,C4*0.9953)
I entertained myself for about 30 minutes by hitting the enter key and then coming up with plausible sounding explanations for why it did what it did. It's even more entertaining if you add dates.

Can you put the dates on there so I can predict when I can RE?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on April 28, 2017, 10:55:09 PM
Can you put the dates on there so I can predict when I can RE?
Of course. Unfortunately the chart I just posted is of the past, so you can't make investment decisions based on it. You have to live through the future. This is the market history you will live through over the next decade:
(https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1yIJQ4CxWE2lhLL3LYeHyFp-WGR2StM6dEa2GHL6ps-w/pub?w=825&h=377)
Wow, good for you. The chart I was going to post first had some tough patches, but I am still working out the best way to post charts from Google sheets. See, this chart shows why you shouldn't invest internationally over the coming decade.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: hubcity on April 29, 2017, 06:59:04 AM
A Himalayan peak is obviously forming at the end there. It's about at a K2 level. With an additional pomerian monoplate influencing the RAND function, there are still legs to go in the market.

Someone read xkcd (https://xkcd.com/1829/ (https://xkcd.com/1829/)) this week.  "Pomerian monoplate" - I'm pretty sure you meant "pomerian microplate".  If you are not careful with your terms you will confuse people.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on April 29, 2017, 07:17:26 AM
How many workplaces have weirdass jargon? Like... all of them, maybe? And then socially, how many groups make up even more weird shit, seemingly with the intention of trying to keep other people from understanding them? People love to feel they know cool 'insider' shit the rest of us don't know. Now let's talk about who here's going to "FIRE next @ 4% on their 'stache".

Hahahahahaa.
This made my day.

I work in an industry with equally bizarre jargon.
It's amazing what we get used to until someone points it out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on April 29, 2017, 08:58:16 AM
Posting to keenly gleen insights from thorstashe.

Radegast, thanks for the chart, now I can prove to everyone that it's OK for me to FIRE, since the future looks bright.

MrGreen, I thought the green, red thing was made up.  I was pretty sure that an inverse dead cat bounce was a "real" term, since dead cat bounce is a "real" chartist term.


Edit for typos.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on April 29, 2017, 10:08:50 PM

MrGreen, I though the green, red thing was made up.  I was pretty sure that an inverse dead cat bounce was a "real" term, since dead cat bounce is a "real" chartist term.

A classic inverse dead cat bounce means the security in discussion will slowly "deflate" over a short period (days to 2 weeks) to its position immediately prior to the "bounce", before it begins to move up again. Think of it as something similar to "filling the gap".
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on April 29, 2017, 11:18:10 PM
A Himalayan peak is obviously forming at the end there. It's about at a K2 level. With an additional pomerian monoplate influencing the RAND function, there are still legs to go in the market.

Someone read xkcd (https://xkcd.com/1829/ (https://xkcd.com/1829/)) this week.  "Pomerian monoplate" - I'm pretty sure you meant "pomerian microplate".  If you are not careful with your terms you will confuse people.

Hey, if you can't grok a pomerian monoplate influencing a Himalayan peak run up, you can go back to your index funds!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 05, 2017, 02:27:06 PM
Are we there yet?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 05, 2017, 08:39:24 PM
Quadruple dead cat bounce?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 06, 2017, 08:26:06 AM
Quadruple dead cat bounce?

You monsters!  That poor cat has been through enough!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Grande on May 06, 2017, 10:21:01 AM
Might me a the top. In 17 years when the SP500 is at 4100 how much regret will we all have buying SP500 at 2400 when we could have waited for a pull back and bought at 2200 (or whatever)?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Laserjet3051 on May 06, 2017, 11:39:07 AM
Might me a the top. In 17 years when the SP500 is at 4100 how much regret will we all have buying SP500 at 2400 when we could have waited for a pull back and bought at 2200 (or whatever)?

ROFL!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 09, 2017, 08:28:24 AM
We're there! Top is in.

Bouncy dead cat is bouncy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 09, 2017, 09:05:06 AM
Oh man, the top is constantly in today, every minute there is a new top being put in :(

This is so hard that we have to keep saying that it's in :(
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on May 09, 2017, 10:27:23 AM
Doh!  May 9th.  ...Top is still in. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 09, 2017, 10:40:15 AM
Wait, with markets up this much, doesn't this mean that the returns are 'too high' and we're in for a correction?  Well?  Oh wait, this thread is 2 years old!!  WFT that is funny sh!t.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 09, 2017, 10:41:53 AM
One day there will be a correction/crash and somebody somewhere will have "predicted" it and they'll still be wrong even if they don't know it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 09, 2017, 02:30:58 PM
Be afraid. Very afraid...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/investing/vix-1993-wall-street-fear-gauge/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 09, 2017, 04:48:30 PM
Top is still in as the S&P has not closed above the March 1 top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 09, 2017, 05:22:17 PM
Top is still in as the S&P has not closed above the March 1 top.

It did today.

1 Mar 2017 close = 2395.96 & high = 2400.98
9 May 2017 close = 2396.92 & high = 2403.87

and VIX is under 10.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 09, 2017, 06:08:36 PM
Top is still in as the S&P has not closed above the March 1 top.

And if the top was in, so what?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on May 09, 2017, 06:10:41 PM
If the top was in, it would be time to invest. You definitely want to be buying when things are going on sale.

I kind of hope the top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 09, 2017, 06:16:46 PM
If the top was in, it would be time to invest. You definitely want to be buying when things are going on sale.

I kind of hope the top is in.

I'm already investing the max amount of $$ I can on a monthly basis.  Which I will keep doing even after things slide downward.  If I had extra $$, I wouldn't wait for a 'top'.  I'd just dump it in now. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PDXTabs on May 09, 2017, 10:50:12 PM
If the top was in, it would be time to invest. You definitely want to be buying when things are going on sale.

I kind of hope the top is in.

I'm already investing the max amount of $$ I can on a monthly basis.  Which I will keep doing even after things slide downward.  If I had extra $$, I wouldn't wait for a 'top'.  I'd just dump it in now.

I happen to think that there is a good chance that the top is in, however there is also a good chance that I am wrong. So, I moved my long term (401k) investment money from 100% stocks to 90% stocks 10% cash. I also moved my short and medium term money (house down payment) to 100% cash. I guess I'm trying to play the market... but I don't feel bad about that asset allocation.

EDIT - but I continue to max out my 401(k) each month.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on May 10, 2017, 06:10:32 AM
Be afraid. Very afraid...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/investing/vix-1993-wall-street-fear-gauge/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

So that may mean,

Bottom is in on the VIX.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 10, 2017, 07:32:03 AM
Be afraid. Very afraid...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/investing/vix-1993-wall-street-fear-gauge/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

So that may mean,

Bottom is in on the VIX.

If that's true, we might have an octuple reverse dead cat bounce shit storm.  Or something.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 10, 2017, 07:53:19 AM
(https://img.clipartfest.com/a1aa02f9672ec70719d1b9f8268bddcb_1000-images-about-godzilla-on-shin-godzilla-clipart_600-320.jpeg)

This is the new Red Dow! ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on May 10, 2017, 10:58:08 AM
Be afraid. Very afraid...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/investing/vix-1993-wall-street-fear-gauge/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

VIX high? Panic!

VIX stable? Panic, it's got to move sometime!

VIX low? Panic, things are too good!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 10, 2017, 11:11:43 AM
Might me a the top. In 17 years when the SP500 is at 4100 how much regret will we all have buying SP500 at 2400 when we could have waited for a pull back and bought at 2200 (or whatever)?

^This * Infinity!

It's interesting to add a S&P500 prediction to your FIRE spreadsheet projections.  At 7%/year the S&P500 would grow from todays ~2400 to around 4700 in 2027 (10 years).  Let that sink in.  +2300 in 10 years.  And stop worrying about 50 pt moves!

Just keep buying!  https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying-7d31402231c9
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 10, 2017, 11:25:32 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1os4fj.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on May 10, 2017, 12:35:46 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1os4fj.jpg)
Simply awesome.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: smedleyb on May 10, 2017, 02:54:37 PM
The top in disappearing dick picks is in.

Aw, SNAP!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 11, 2017, 08:18:16 AM
On a serious note, double top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 11, 2017, 08:55:24 AM
On a serious note, double top is in.

lol?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on May 11, 2017, 10:05:43 AM
For everyone cracking lame jokes, you probably ought to at least acknowledge that the dude hasn't actually been wrong yet.

I mean, he called the S&P top, and so far has been 'off' by like a tiny fraction of a percent -and the market's currently falling today. That's just a fact, isn't it? We don't trash facts here because we feel we're eventually going to be right, do we? Is that what the 'regulars' here are?

Like everyone else here, I think he has no idea what the future will bring, but jumping the gun by ripping on a still-not-wrong prediction makes a lot of you look like grade-schoolers.

At least challenge yourself to be clever (and accurate) if you're going to make fun of someone.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 11, 2017, 10:54:31 AM
I think we're all in imminent danger.









What kind of danger, you may be asking?










Well, there's only one kind that really should worry you:












(https://media.giphy.com/media/9WRzib2yHMdAA/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 11, 2017, 10:59:25 AM
The call was then changed to double top, on April 26th. 

And this is the root of the ridicule - if you're allowed to simply change your initial (wrong) prediction by saying "double top!" then you will never be wrong!  Haha.  Then you can just say "triple top" at the next peak.  And "quadruple top" at the next one.  How many times does someone have to be wrong before they get called out?

I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on May 11, 2017, 12:08:00 PM
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.

You're the second person who has said this thread is 2 years old. But when I look at the first post, the date is April 11, 2017. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on May 11, 2017, 12:10:01 PM
I read about "charts" in "Random Walk."  Not really impressed.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 11, 2017, 12:19:33 PM
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.

You're the second person who has said this thread is 2 years old. But when I look at the first post, the date is April 11, 2017. What am I missing?

Oh sorry, got confused because I was also posting to this thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/a-crash-is-coming/

Which is making basically the same predictions.  And even better I now see that it's 3 years old, not 2.  Haha.  I mean, 3 years ago we should listened.  Right?  Right!??

Or maybe, just maybe, these random internet posters don't know wtf they are talking about....
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 11, 2017, 12:23:33 PM
The call was then changed to double top, on April 26th. 

And this is the root of the ridicule - if you're allowed to simply change your initial (wrong) prediction by saying "double top!" then you will never be wrong!  Haha.  Then you can just say "triple top" at the next peak.  And "quadruple top" at the next one.  How many times does someone have to be wrong before they get called out?

I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD and people were calling the top 2 years ago!  Haha, that's why it's so funny.  The market goes up, people get nervous, start to call it 'overvalued' and then they 'call the top'.  2 years of fail (at predicting).  That's what makes this thread awesome.


The top has been in since March 1 and continues to be in. Failure to break out created a double top on the chart, but the top is still in since it failed to break out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on May 11, 2017, 12:26:48 PM
Quote from: tyort1
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD

No it isn't. You must be confusing it with another thread. And it's not like suddenly 2 years ago people started calling 'tops' and making endless 'red dow' jokes and all that crap anyway.

It's like people who keep reusing some weak catchphrase from SNL that wasn't really that funny in the first place. But they think it's astounding hilarious and run it into the ground for the next decade.

Also, it doesn't matter if he's going on about quadrupletops or a thousand tops, if it pretty much remains the same top, right? Like I wrote, he's technically already wrong, but off by a fraction of a percent. That's not really a LOT. (it's not clear that he was specifically calling an exact date before late April -though I could be wrong. I don't think anyone bothered to insist on it from him 'til later on).

The sad fact is that it usually takes a while to prove these predictions as utterly, completely false. It's so much cheaper and lazier to make lame jokes. I find it speaks far worse of this forum than it does of some newbie here calling a 'top' and spewing investor jargon. Seeing as this will obviously never end -someone will always end up coming here making some magical claim... how long are you going to keep getting off on it?

I mean, you're a pretty recent newbie to all this yourself, aren't you tyson? Maybe some perspective?

IMO, we should just insist these folks call the exact top (allow a reasonable +/- window) AND a bottom (so the prediction would be of any use to anyone), and then lock the thread and move it to another permanently locked thread that is just there to collect any these random 'calls'. We can all link and refer to that when this inevitably keeps happening endlessly.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on May 11, 2017, 12:33:55 PM
I'm a little confused by what is being called. The S&P set a new all-time closing high yesterday at 2399.63. The intraday high is 2403.87 set the day before, May 9. So the top isn't in, correct? Because they just broke through what the previous highs were. Or am I missing something?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on May 11, 2017, 12:35:06 PM
Seeing as this will obviously never end -someone will always end up coming here making some magical claim... how long are you going to keep getting off on it?

As long as it's funny to the poster?

What's the problem? If you don't find it funny, and it chaps your hide to see people posting lame jokes, you don't have to read the thread, right?

Meanwhile, the rest of us lamers will continue making lame jokes about a pennant pattern coinciding with an impending gap at the open.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on May 11, 2017, 12:36:29 PM
AZryan  See tyort's message two posts above yours.

My favorite part of the other thread was:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/a-crash-is-coming/msg295712/#msg295712

TL;dr  out of 90% of positions and into cash  in 2014 . 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on May 11, 2017, 12:38:17 PM
thorstach,

If you're not trying to troll people here (and I've defended you from people flat out calling you that), then what's your point? You basically called a top. But are you trying to tell us something that's helpful? Do you suggest something we should do, or are you just trying to 'get credit' for calling a top (if that does actually basically pan out)?

It doesn't really help to get out of the market at a 'top' if we don't also know what the bottom is. Do you have any prediction there? How much is it going to drop before we should get back in?

And I'd suggest you lay off the flurry of technical jargon. You will just get ridiculed for it. It's of no use to anyone here. Just speak plainly and make yourself of some use or the jokes and insults we become more and more deserved.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on May 11, 2017, 12:38:41 PM
I'm a little confused by what is being called. The S&P set a new all-time closing high yesterday at 2399.63. The intraday high is 2403.87 set the day before, May 9. So the top isn't in, correct? Because they just broke through what the previous highs were. Or am I missing something?

It's now a double top, which indicates a test of the previous high without going much higher. There's also a triple top, which is what it sounds like.

Sure, this happens probably 100s of times when the market is near a high but this time it's different.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 11, 2017, 12:40:41 PM
Quote from: tyort1
I should also note that this thread is 2 YEARS OLD

No it isn't. You must be confusing it with another thread. And it's not like suddenly 2 years ago people started calling 'tops' and making endless 'red dow' jokes and all that crap anyway.

It's like people who keep reusing some weak catchphrase from SNL that wasn't really that funny in the first place. But they think it's astounding hilarious and run it into the ground for the next decade.

Also, it doesn't matter if he's going on about quadrupletops or a thousand tops, if it pretty much remains the same top, right? Like I wrote, he's technically already wrong, but off by a fraction of a percent. That's not really a LOT. (it's not clear that he was specifically calling an exact date before late April -though I could be wrong. I don't think anyone bothered to insist on it from him 'til later on).

The sad fact is that it usually takes a while to prove these predictions as utterly, completely false. It's so much cheaper and lazier to make lame jokes. I find it speaks far worse of this forum than it does of some newbie here calling a 'top' and spewing investor jargon. Seeing as this will obviously never end -someone will always end up coming here making some magical claim... how long are you going to keep getting off on it?

I mean, you're a pretty recent newbie to all this yourself, aren't you tyson? Maybe some perspective?

IMO, we should just insist these folks call the exact top (allow a reasonable +/- window) AND a bottom (so the prediction would be of any use to anyone), and then lock the thread and move it to another permanently locked thread that is just there to collect any these random 'calls'. We can all link and refer to that when this inevitably keeps happening endlessly.

Well, Ryan, I call this stuff out because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.  Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't".

But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.  Of course I call bullshit when I see this type of crap now. 

I mean, don't get me wrong, the market will drop some day.  But that's not even useful information.  If the top were in, does that mean a hard sharp drop with a quick rebound?  A flat, long period of stagnation?  An slow gradual decline?  I mean if they call the top, then maybe they should also let us know the depth and length of the dip, too.  That would actually be more useful, if they were right.

As of now, it's been 3 years of crystal ball and jargon and charts utterly and completely failing.  Thread after threat.  Month after month.  Year after year.  So yeah, I'm gonna face punch people that come in and post crap like this.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 11, 2017, 12:41:52 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1ousir.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1ousir)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

I can keep making fun of "calling the top" for awhile, because it just doesn't matter. 

If OP, or anyone else, is correct that the S&P500 has reached its all-time high, never to be seen again, then we're all doomed.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 11, 2017, 12:43:17 PM
On a serious note, double top is in.

(http://p5.focus.de/img/fotos/origs4632737/3565383912-w630-h488-o-q75-p5/smiley.jpg)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on May 11, 2017, 12:51:39 PM
Quote from: bacchi
What's the problem?

Right. Obviously the old 'well if you don't like it, you can just leave' line works. As does, 'if you don't like something, say something'.

I was trying to say maybe this forum shouldn't become this sort of thing? It's not like there are a ton of people acting like this is the funniest shit ever. Where we all just trash a newbie here like childish bullies??

And some might be considered a bit hypocritical while they're at it, since they had no idea about these investing and lifestyle concepts only a few short years ago. But now they roar with laughter in wild abandon like they've always been doing this, and it should be so obvious to everyone else that this is how to do it.

Some times some things are worth a little reflection and reconsideration.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 11, 2017, 01:00:15 PM
Aren't the concepts of a market top or bottom really only relevant if you are an investor trying to time the market?  i.e. short term investing?

For long term, buy-and-hold, it doesn't matter. 

For reference, 15 seconds of googling produced this prediction of a market top from Forbes, carrying a Scary Title of "Watch Out," complete with Scary Graphs and this warning:  "What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2011/07/22/watch-out-2011-looks-a-lot-like-the-market-top-in-2007/#69ae02f430f9

That article was from 2011.  The market has done fine since then.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on May 11, 2017, 01:10:51 PM
Some things are in my control.  Other things are not.  What the market does (i.e., whether the top is in) is outside of my control, and outside of my knowledge, and I accept that.  I am perfectly content to buy and hold index funds. 

There are people in this world who want to believe they have superior knowledge or ability, therefore they have an advantage by way of stock picking, market timing, and the like.  Good for them.  In my opinion, that is delusional, but there is no universal law that says everyone else has to acknowledge my opinion. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on May 11, 2017, 01:14:16 PM
Quote from: tyort1
-because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.-

I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.

"-But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.-"

That's ALWAYS been going on. It's not been months and years; it's been ALWAYS. But I asked, 'how long are you going to find it hilarious'?? You who maybe only realized this stuff yourself a few years ago??

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on May 11, 2017, 01:27:31 PM
I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.
Personally, jokes would make me question the seriousness of the thread and strongly reconsider whether I was willing to act on something I read. Acting based on a thread on MMM sounds silly to begin with but when you don't know anything it doesn't feel that way. Maybe the ridicule isn't necessary, but I can see value in the jokes.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: AZryan on May 11, 2017, 01:29:48 PM
Quote from: Clean Shaven
Aren't the concepts of a market top or bottom really only relevant if you are an investor trying to time the market?  i.e. short term investing?

That's a perfect argument. It's been made a billion times. Shouldn't we just lock these sort of dumb threads and tell the prognosticators that since this is a buy and hold style investment forum, no one cares what their prediction is?
I'm trying to prevent the inevitable next of these dumb threads., while some here are trying to make each new one live forever.

Quote from: L.A.S.
Am I missing something? When did OP say to get out in the first place?

If the OP doesn't have any point to make their prediction relevant, then it's pointless even if they're exactly right. And I think we ought to demand they include that in their posts, or it's just trash piling up here. Calling a 'top' implies getting out (or taking some action to financially gain from it), or else there's literally no point in saying it.

So if you get out, then it implies getting back in at some other time (unless they mean the actual top -as in the market will never cross this point ever in the history of the world again -but we usually assume that's not what someone means).

This forum should handle these endless predictions in a better way than making them into stupid page after page of dumb jokes and insults that go to the top of the threads list. I suggested a way earlier.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 11, 2017, 01:35:21 PM

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

There are serious threads on this forum, which generate serious responses.  And there are silly threads, which generate silly responses. 

This thread was started with this post:

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

And the OP never clarified any of it, never gave any (potentially useful or open to discussion) information like what anyone could or should do about it, even when others attempted to engage OP in a discussion:

nice to meet you thorstach.   Are you shorting?  If not, why not?

Most on this board prefer to invest for the long term and don't really follow short term movements very much, preferring to buy and hold with periodic asset rebalancing.

You might do okay from speculating, but most of the new arriving investment gurus on this forum have disappeared with their tales between their legs over the years.

OP just keeps posting cryptic statements that would seem to carry some grand wisdom...

The top is still in. XIV triple top with VIX bouncing back. US Steel down 26% as reality sets in.

... but IMHO are just nonsense.  Accordingly, I respond with silliness, memes, gifs, and the occasional New Order lyric.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on May 11, 2017, 02:38:43 PM

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

You must be a barrel of laughs at a party?  Listen, people need to draw attention and ridicule to erroneous predictions as much as possible to keep others from stepping into the quagmire.  If we all discussed like it was a very serious topic it would give actual credence to the plausibility of the prediction.  And there's seriously none to be had. 

Also, stern, preachy, and virtue signaling isn't a better approach than jocular.  You think people here were actually being mean or just having a laugh? 

..And if I ever start spouting nonsense here, mustaches, please feel free to pile on me.  Cream pies and facepunches welcome. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 11, 2017, 02:48:35 PM
Technically thorstach is obviously correct, a top is always in. Why? Because time is a continuum and as long as the stock market has had any value at any point it time a top is in.

Let's say the S&P500 was at 2000 today and was at 2050 a couple of weeks ago and that was the highest it's ever been. Then the top is in at 2050. Now let's say tomorrow it goes to 2051, now a top is in, it's 2051! The top is always in until a new top comes and then it's in again.

In conclusion: Top is in
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on May 11, 2017, 02:52:34 PM
I thought the dumb jokes in this thread were a deliberate response to dumb pronouncements in this thread.  Did I give someone too much credit?  Should I have assumed people were just randomly being stupid, instead of purposely being stupid?

We've asked OP for clarification multiple times, and been given nothing but more cryptic emptiness.  How long does a top have to hold to be considered a top?  Is the prediction that the market will NEVER exceed that top (oops) or just not exceed it for a week, or a month, or a year?  What's the signal for determining the top except gut feelings, and what's the supposed signal for determining the bottom and getting back in?

I maintain that OP is only here to pester people, and has no real information or insight or advice.  I think it's all for funsies.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 11, 2017, 02:58:02 PM
OK, now I know you're a troll.  But damn if you don't make me smile!  Thanks man. 

I want to play too!!!! I found this random financial advice generator on the internet
https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

First advice randomly generated:

Uninsured CDOs: in the aeronautics marketplace, always divest from them.

Next bit:

In counterparty markets, plan to restructure senior-rated derivatives.

Man, this is fun, wheeeee!!

Somehow I overlooked this gem earlier.

Therefore, I now remedy my earlier failure:

"The smart trader nowadays will always securitize uninsured systemic risks."

P.S. - all my stupidity is intentional.  I think.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on May 11, 2017, 03:00:20 PM

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

You must be a barrel of laughs at a party?  Listen, people need to draw attention and ridicule to erroneous predictions as much as possible to keep others from stepping into the quagmire.  If we all discussed like it was a very serious topic it would give actual credence to the plausibility of the prediction.  And there's seriously none to be had. 

Also, stern, preachy, and virtue signaling isn't a better approach than jocular.  You think people here were actually being mean or just having a laugh? 

..And if I ever start spouting nonsense here, mustaches, please feel free to pile on me.  Cream pies and facepunches welcome.

Ask him how he feels about the word retired, and then sit back and let the good times roll in.  ;)


I personally think this thread is hilarious and am getting quite a lot of laughs out of it.  The whole idea that this sort of nonsense is supposed to be countered with serious points is idiotic.  Post dumb ideas, get dumb responses.  At least it's entertaining.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thenextguy on May 11, 2017, 03:19:04 PM
Feel free to call these predictions bullshit.

Will do!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 11, 2017, 07:48:49 PM
Quote from: tyort1
-because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.-

I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.

"-But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.-"

That's ALWAYS been going on. It's not been months and years; it's been ALWAYS. But I asked, 'how long are you going to find it hilarious'?? You who maybe only realized this stuff yourself a few years ago??

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

Hmmm, I 'could' do all those things and make you happy.  Or I can just keep doing what I'm doing and make me happy.  Decisions, decisions..... 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on May 11, 2017, 11:02:43 PM
...but I can see value in the jokes.

Always, but especially these days.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on May 11, 2017, 11:08:45 PM
On a serious note, double top is in.
Wow, now that is some crazy coincidence. My S&P500 price chart generator just gave me a double top too!!! What are the odds of that happening on the same day? Of course, my result is actually a double top, which requires at least a 10% decline between peaks (according to stockcharts.com). According to this chart you should look out for premature double tops, which according to this chart are a real thing.
(https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/12Fd-UJavsSiUhw1DYw5HnmloUl7vzqy9TY5T-vgPP9Q/pub?w=557&h=339)

This forum should handle these endless predictions in a better way than making them into stupid page after page of dumb jokes and insults that go to the top of the threads list.
I disagree
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on May 11, 2017, 11:52:59 PM
Quote from: tyort1
-because it is EXACTLY this type of post and breathless doom prediction because REASONS and JARGON that caused ME a lot of stress when I first came to MMM.  If other people hadn't made strong counter points (including jokes and ridicule), I would almost certainly have wasted time before putting my money in the market.-

I'd call that a reasonable point... until you claimed that strong counter points include jokes and ridicule. Seeing as jokes and ridicule are very much NOT strong counter points and literally the only thing I'm complaining about, yeah... you ruined your argument.

My suggestion to counter these sorts of predictions might be a far better approach. Making dumb jokes is an awful approach. You can find on any forum on any subject people who will trash and make fun of any position there is. No logic or reason are necessary. Maybe we should demand it here?

"-Hell, even after I had my money in the market, I was still nervous and these types of threads caused me a lot of stress.  I figured "Hey, these guys must know something that I don't"."

There's no way in hell you learned anything from people making jokes or popping up silly JPG's. At best, it made you 'feel' like you were part of the in-group to be on that majority side. That's not how genuine argument works. I know you saw this on other forums yourself.

"-But month after month (and now), year after year, they are all DEAD WRONG.-"

That's ALWAYS been going on. It's not been months and years; it's been ALWAYS. But I asked, 'how long are you going to find it hilarious'?? You who maybe only realized this stuff yourself a few years ago??

Feel free to call these predictions bullshit. But if you do, be clever and say WHY it's bullshit. Trip up someone with your knowledge of the subject, not name-calling or silly pictures that make your 'counterpoint' pointless.

Are you being better than the person you're trashing?

You won't get any merit badge for 'face punching' with cheap one-liners just because you finally understand some of these subjects.

The reason why people shun this type of "advice" is because it's dangerous.  Chartists have never had any merit in investing, but somehow they're still around.  Their predictions destroy the well meaning day traders who think they are doing right by "educating" themselves, but are simply being swindled by salesmen.

The reason why you see people here and elsewhere making fun of the green tinted visor wearing chartists is because, frankly, repeating the same sage advice ad nauseum is exhausting.  There are only so many times you can remind people, "Please, don't light yourself on fire to lose weight.  While blubber is an effective fuel, it will hurt you.". When people roll in with the Next Great Weight Loss plan that's repetitively stupid, a thoughtful response isn't given.

Is that right?  I don't know.  That wouldn't fly in a school of course, but this isn't a school.  This is a society whose objective is to build the collective knowledge.  While group think is a danger, chasing foxes out of the hen house is equally important if the advice is hurtful.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 11, 2017, 11:59:14 PM
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little? 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 12, 2017, 10:13:34 AM
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little?

(https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder638/500x/76910638/serious-cat-serious-forum-is-serious.jpg)

(meant in good humor, AZRyan...)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 12, 2017, 11:39:56 AM
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little?

(https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder638/500x/76910638/serious-cat-serious-forum-is-serious.jpg)

(meant in good humor, AZRyan...)

Thought that cat was supposed to be dead already?  What's going on?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 12, 2017, 12:09:17 PM
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 12, 2017, 12:19:38 PM
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.

Schrödinger's cat isn't alive when you look at it and dead when you don't. It's simultaneously dead and alive until observed in which case it would then be one state or the other (dead or alive).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Inaya on May 12, 2017, 12:31:16 PM
And c'mon AZRyan, you didn't find ANY of the posts funny?  Not even a little?
Top is in. Fun is out. :(
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on May 12, 2017, 12:31:42 PM
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.

Schrödinger's cat isn't alive when you look at it and dead when you don't. It's simultaneously dead and alive until observed in which case it would then be one state or the other (dead or alive).

Why doesn't the cat just observe itself?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on May 12, 2017, 12:32:22 PM
I hadn't thought of it before, but Schrodinger's Cat is simultaneously bouncing or still until you observe it.   So it could be dead and bouncing or alive and still or some combination of entangled states.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on May 12, 2017, 12:42:21 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on May 12, 2017, 12:49:34 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

What happens when the triple top dead Schrodinger's cat bounce comes?  We just revise our predictions from dead cat to alive cat?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on May 12, 2017, 01:22:04 PM
at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

What happens when the triple top dead Schrodinger's cat bounce comes?  We just revise our predictions from dead cat to alive cat?

Only if thorstach says so. He has so clearly established his credibility in the field of market timing that we owe him the benefit of doubt under all these evolving cat bounces.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 12, 2017, 01:27:37 PM
And I should point out, even if the top is in, that is not actionable.  Maybe if you want to try to time the market it might be useful.  But the whole point of MMM style investing is you DO NOT time the market.  Buy and hold.  Boring I know. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 12, 2017, 01:34:47 PM
It's Schrodinger's Cat.  So it's alive when you look at it, and dead when you don't.

Schrödinger's cat isn't alive when you look at it and dead when you don't. It's simultaneously dead and alive until observed in which case it would then be one state or the other (dead or alive).

Why doesn't the cat just observe itself?

Well, it's in a box that has no lights so it can't! But even if it could it wouldn't matter because the observation has to happen outside of the system of entanglement.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 12, 2017, 02:02:28 PM
There's some serious animal abuse going on in this thread.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on May 12, 2017, 03:27:11 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on May 12, 2017, 03:49:43 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!

How can you possibly justify "not wrong"?

He called the top at March 1, a top that has now been broken, then that top was broken, then that second top was broken and a third top was set.  Three separate times.  We're talking about numbers here, one of them is definitely bigger than the other.

Looks pretty wrong to me.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dreadmoose on May 12, 2017, 04:01:38 PM
If it helps the argument in any way... (which is how the internet works right? people are always convinced at the end of thread?)

I feel a little antsy about investing my hard-earned (not really) cash, so when people come in with predictions on how silly everyone is for sitting still it takes the slightest willpower to not dive down a research rabbit hole to see if it can be verified. Once everyone stops asking questions that can't be answered and the meme's start pouring in it makes it much easier to write-off what seemed to be a serious prediction (a great reason to read deprecated threads on these predictions to see them happen constantly in all directions and then proven wrong).

That said I vowed to never change my investment strategy and won't crack to wild predictions in any direction, but somebody might need to see ridicule of these moon-shots in order to write them off.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on May 12, 2017, 04:20:40 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!
What? Every single prediction he made about the future has been wrong already, except calling the top on May 10th which will be wrong too if the S&P500 ever again goes .4% above where it is right now. If he calls every new high the top he will be right while at the same time being profoundly wrong. He has been 100% accurate in predicting things that already happened though, so I see how you might be confused. His powers of hindsight are astounding.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on May 12, 2017, 04:48:34 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!

Even though sol and Radagast seemed to miss it, I thought this was well done and very funny.  Can't wait for the not wrong Triple Top!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on May 12, 2017, 05:55:53 PM
After reading this thread it seems to me thorstach is still not wrong. Many other posters have been wrong but at this point I'm willing to give the double top the benefit of the doubt.

That's part of why I like this thread!  If thorstach continues to be not wrong, or at least not very wrong, it will just get better and better.  If thorstach is not wrong long enough to considered right this thread could be great!  Every thread dies, but not every thread truly lives.  Double top is IN!

How can you possibly justify "not wrong"?

He called the top at March 1, a top that has now been broken, then that top was broken, then that second top was broken and a third top was set.  Three separate times.  We're talking about numbers here, one of them is definitely bigger than the other.

Looks pretty wrong to me.

I'm willing to spot thorstache a few points on the upside in the short term!  Call it a little sportsmanship if you will.  Based on the called top on March 1, and daily closing numbers on the S&P, the top was only broken by a few points so far.  Maybe it blows up on Monday.  But this weekend, Triple top is IN!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 12, 2017, 06:00:42 PM
But this weekend, Triple top is IN!

OK, one more meme for the weekend.

(https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder427/500x/76914427/triple-h-burial-triple-top-its-whats-best-for-business.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on May 12, 2017, 09:18:11 PM
I've never experience this nicer and gentler sort of trolling before.   I haven't had so much fun on a thread in a long time.
Nice pithy responses, comments.   

I miss mrpercentage :-(
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on May 12, 2017, 11:39:25 PM
I've never experience this nicer and gentler sort of trolling before.   I haven't had so much fun on a thread in a long time.
Nice pithy responses, comments.   

I miss mrpercentage :-(

Funny thing is, every single time that I see one of these threads early in their existence, and it's often, I think to myself, "this will die a quick death" given how inane (and ultimately wrong) each prediction is. And yet, these threads often take off and go on and on and on. So not only do I lack faith in my ability to call "the top" of the market, but I also have absolutely no faith that I can call the top of the market timing threads either.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 13, 2017, 11:26:56 PM
I've never experience this nicer and gentler sort of trolling before.   I haven't had so much fun on a thread in a long time.
Nice pithy responses, comments.   

I miss mrpercentage :-(

Funny thing is, every single time that I see one of these threads early in their existence, and it's often, I think to myself, "this will die a quick death" given how inane (and ultimately wrong) each prediction is. And yet, these threads often take off and go on and on and on. So not only do I lack faith in my ability to call "the top" of the market, but I also have absolutely no faith that I can call the top of the market timing threads either.

That's because we're experiencing an inverse triple dead thread bounce 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on May 15, 2017, 09:16:36 AM
S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 15, 2017, 09:33:03 AM
More bounce to the ounce.

(http://www.walltor.com/images/wallpaper/hover-ball-cat-186757.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Scortius on May 15, 2017, 10:03:40 AM
S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

An actual dead cat bounce only happens after a severe market downturn.  After a large drop, investors waiting to buy low anticipate the bottom and buy at what they think are discount prices.  This causes a short rise in the market that attracts further investors thinking the 'bottom is in'.  Of course, the bottom is not in yet, so after a short gain the market tanks even lower.  That short gain seen on the way down is what's known as a 'dead cat bounce'.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 15, 2017, 12:07:40 PM
S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

An actual dead cat bounce only happens after a severe market downturn.  After a large drop, investors waiting to buy low anticipate the bottom and buy at what they think are discount prices.  This causes a short rise in the market that attracts further investors thinking the 'bottom is in'.  Of course, the bottom is not in yet, so after a short gain the market tanks even lower.  That short gain seen on the way down is what's known as a 'dead cat bounce'.

So this is more of a live cat leap???
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 15, 2017, 02:04:58 PM
So many tops I will need to move to my left hand to keep counting!

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a2/Quints_promo_poster.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on May 15, 2017, 02:53:56 PM
Not a top. Not a double top. Onward and upward:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 15, 2017, 03:05:40 PM
Sorry to burst your bubble, but: Top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 15, 2017, 03:07:56 PM
So many tops I will need to move to my left hand to keep counting!

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a2/Quints_promo_poster.jpg)

At least it wasn't an afterschool special about quants!

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JoeBlow on May 15, 2017, 10:15:55 PM
S&P 500 is flirting with a new intraday high again.

I don't actually know what a dead cat bounce is, but quadruple?

An actual dead cat bounce only happens after a severe market downturn.  After a large drop, investors waiting to buy low anticipate the bottom and buy at what they think are discount prices.  This causes a short rise in the market that attracts further investors thinking the 'bottom is in'.  Of course, the bottom is not in yet, so after a short gain the market tanks even lower.  That short gain seen on the way down is what's known as a 'dead cat bounce'.

I am not a market timer but the dead cat bounce happens almost every time there is a sudden market crash.  It is almost like clockwork.  I just continue to buy, buy, buy all the way to the bottom.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on May 16, 2017, 05:57:51 AM
Top is in, again! Nowhere to go but triangle.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: smedleyb on May 16, 2017, 06:44:42 AM
Gambling account currently 200% short as of yesterday (via IWM puts).  Don't know about tops, yet high levels of complacency + narrowing leadership = time to throw some money logs on this market fire.  Fully expect to lose (stops set above 140) but I'll be damned if I don't take a stand.

To properly understand this trade, picture a entire army advancing (market bull), and I, armed with a small knife, turn to my fellow bears uttering "I got this" as I charge out into the field of battle. 

Wish me luck! lol. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on May 16, 2017, 07:58:21 AM

To properly understand this trade, picture a entire army advancing (market bull), and I, armed with a small knife, turn to my fellow bears uttering "I got this" as I charge out into the field of battle. 

Wish me luck! lol.

US Factory output grew in April at the fastest pace in 3 years. Manufacturing capacity utilization as well as overall industrial capacity utilization both climbed.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/05/16/business/16reuters-usa-economy-output.html?src=busln

Also hasn't 1st Quarter seen a rebound in corporate profits ?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: smedleyb on May 16, 2017, 08:23:56 AM
US Factory output grew in April at the fastest pace in 3 years. Manufacturing capacity utilization as well as overall industrial capacity utilization both climbed.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/05/16/business/16reuters-usa-economy-output.html?src=busln

Also hasn't 1st Quarter seen a rebound in corporate profits ?

Sell at the sound of the trumpets?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 16, 2017, 08:50:36 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 16, 2017, 08:55:22 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.
I disagree.

In deferred markets, never prepay defaulted short positions.

Courtesy of:

https://phrasegenerator.com/finance
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on May 16, 2017, 09:04:16 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I used to read SPY vs. SPY when I was a freshman in college, does that count?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 16, 2017, 09:08:42 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I <3 you dude. I literally laughed out loud at my desk and people walking by wondering what I'm laughing at.

Keep em coming!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 16, 2017, 09:41:48 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

I used to read SPY vs. SPY when I was a freshman in college, does that count?
Was there a red Spy too? I just remember the black and white ones.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 16, 2017, 09:43:10 AM
Was there a red Spy too? I just remember the black and white ones.

(http://www.madmagazine.com/sites/default/files/files/2011/08/MAD-Spy-George-Gaspar-Front.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on May 16, 2017, 10:29:56 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

We breached 21000. If it can close above, it's green dow, baby!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: UnleashHell on May 16, 2017, 11:25:03 AM
In? Out?
Shake it all about!!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 16, 2017, 11:32:08 AM
Red SPY on double top breakout rejection.

We breached 21000. If it can close above, it's green dow, baby!

Way to jinx it!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 16, 2017, 11:39:16 AM
In? Out?
Shake it all about!!!

That's what it's all about!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 16, 2017, 05:57:32 PM
More red in after hours, VIX spiking, gapping down tomorrow.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 16, 2017, 06:04:53 PM
...VIX spiking...

Spiking?
I suppose it's all in how you look at it.

VIX hit a record low yesterday, so it shouldn't be strange at all to see it go up.
And for further context, it's also down about 33% from when you started this thread.

But yeah... 'spiking' can also work as a headline, I guess.




ETA:
Is it just me or do all of Thorstach's posts read like old-timey telegrams sent from the front lines?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 16, 2017, 06:05:37 PM
More red in after hours, VIX spiking, gapping down tomorrow.

(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4176/34321002150_70ac051a49_z.jpg)

Yes. VIX looks very scary down there at 10.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 16, 2017, 06:08:56 PM
More red in after hours, VIX spiking, gapping down tomorrow.

Is that like Chad's Gap?

(http://freeskier.com/sites/default/files/admin/618_timdurtschi_chadsgap_brentbenson_ut.jpg)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 16, 2017, 06:23:26 PM
The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 16, 2017, 06:26:43 PM
The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.

Posts continue, thread growing, jokes spiking after hours.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on May 16, 2017, 09:16:55 PM
Actual Market History
(http://i63.tinypic.com/2m4ok8l.jpg)

The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.
Glad to see you are still around despite the relentless jokes.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 17, 2017, 07:12:33 AM
VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 17, 2017, 07:36:04 AM
VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

Alternatively....

VIX down 25% in the past month, inability to draw an actionable conclusion is in.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 17, 2017, 07:57:32 AM
VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4190/34715550515_3727c2e3c4_z.jpg)

Yes! Only a fool wouldn't be worried about VIX right now. I mean look at it. Low is bad right??? ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 17, 2017, 08:02:30 AM
AAAAGH THE SKY IS FALLING EVERYBODY RUN NOWHERE TO HIDE WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE AAAAGH
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 17, 2017, 08:10:04 AM
Thorstach, all joking aside, you continue to point out what you deem as significant signposts of a coming downtrend - but you don't seem to have any actionable advice to follow it.

In all sincerity, I'm curious, what do you suggest people do with this information?

More importantly - What have you done with your investments in reaction to 'the top being in'?

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 17, 2017, 08:31:09 AM
Thorstach, all joking aside, you continue to point out what you deem as significant signposts of a coming downtrend - but you don't seem to have any actionable advice to follow it.

In all sincerity, I'm curious, what do you suggest people do with this information?

More importantly - What have you done with your investments in reaction to 'the top being in'?
He's been asked these sorts of questions before in this thread, and never answers.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 17, 2017, 09:02:35 AM
You might want to read this article Thorsatch.  Sometimes the clouds just have rain, not biblical floods.

Quote
Stocks don’t have to crash every time they fall. In fact, the majority of the time when you’re invested in the stock market you’re going to be experiencing a drawdown for the simple fact that new all-time highs aren’t reached every single day and stocks are only up around 50% of all trading days.

Stocks will fall. The reason doesn’t really even matter. When you invest in stocks you should go into that investment with the expectation that they will go down with regularity even when they end up giving you gains over the long-term.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/05/the-expectation-of-losses/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 17, 2017, 09:42:08 AM
Looks like the Top is in for Trump.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: FLBiker on May 17, 2017, 09:50:06 AM
This thread is great!  I admit to being fairly ignorant of market timing jargon, but I read a bunch of the sincere posts as jokes.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on May 17, 2017, 11:47:10 AM
I like that he only posts when the market is trending in the direction he wants.

So for almost the entirety of the last two months, nothing. But now a 1% drop and it's spam about the impending doom.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 17, 2017, 12:42:47 PM
I like that he only posts when the market is trending in the direction he wants.

So for almost the entirety of the last two months, nothing. But now a 1% drop and it's spam about the impending doom.

It's 1.5% currently.

(http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/18100000/Cover-end-of-days-18110812-650-650.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 17, 2017, 12:52:02 PM
VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.

(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4190/34715550515_3727c2e3c4_z.jpg)

Yes! Only a fool wouldn't be worried about VIX right now. I mean look at it. Low is bad right??? ;)


VIX up 36.62%
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on May 17, 2017, 01:24:46 PM
Okay, now I know he's here for the lulz.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 17, 2017, 01:37:04 PM
Okay, now I know he's here for the lulz.

Yes, he's a troll, but a cute and adorable one.  His nonsense posts just make me smile.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 17, 2017, 01:52:02 PM
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zt6hTDdzx6c/VcDhoOdaxiI/AAAAAAAAAVw/W2ZXV3JGSwI/s1600/image.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 17, 2017, 02:06:33 PM
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/12/bc/5d/12bc5d846fc537f5541bb8fde2d645fd.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on May 17, 2017, 02:16:56 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/28v6dv.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 17, 2017, 02:22:45 PM
Can I add some more Red Green to this thread?

(http://www.thecomedynetwork.ca/getmedia/5e8ac69e-d93b-456b-b4b3-39d73489489d/redgreen2)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mountainfamily on May 17, 2017, 02:23:21 PM
I'm new to this forum and this has indeed been a very entertaining thread. :)

I'm in an interesting position, having been a very strict long investor my whole adult life. I opened my Fidelity account in 2006 and hadn't ever sold a thing. At the end of 2016, however, I harvested some long capital gains because I could do so at a 0% tax rate, and this spring I sold off a large portion of my index funds for a potential home down payment. However, we've been unsuccessful in buying a home in Seattle, the country's hottest housing market. We just got spectacularly defeated in another bidding war and I'm thinking of throwing in the towel, signing a new lease (complete with newly jacked rent), and re-investing.

While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point. Things do seem to be getting more interesting in Washington, but they're always chaotic. On my Fidelity front page this afternoon: "You may know when to buy, but do you know when to sell?"

I've been stressed lately. Thanks for reminding me to keep it light-hearted and take the long view!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 17, 2017, 02:24:55 PM
(http://www.eatwell101.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Holiday-Candle.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 17, 2017, 02:30:16 PM
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point.

Not to be too harsh with you, but carefully choosing your re-entry point is exactly the definition of market timing.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 17, 2017, 02:35:33 PM
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point. Things do seem to be getting more interesting in Washington, but they're always chaotic. On my Fidelity front page this afternoon: "You may know when to buy, but do you know when to sell?"

I've been stressed lately. Thanks for reminding me to keep it light-hearted and take the long view!

It depends - are you going to need to pull the $$ out again within the next year or 2 to try to buy a house again?  If so, I'd park it in bonds till you're ready to do that.  Otherwise, if you've truly given up on the house idea, no reason not to dump it back into the market and let it grow.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: UnleashHell on May 17, 2017, 02:57:39 PM
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 17, 2017, 03:07:30 PM
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
That made my day.
This thread hasn't been this funny since page 5.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mountainfamily on May 17, 2017, 03:26:18 PM
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point.

Not to be too harsh with you, but carefully choosing your re-entry point is exactly the definition of market timing.

haha, no offense taken. I suppose I am trying to time the market, but within the context of a bigger picture, not as a trader.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mountainfamily on May 17, 2017, 03:29:23 PM
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point. Things do seem to be getting more interesting in Washington, but they're always chaotic. On my Fidelity front page this afternoon: "You may know when to buy, but do you know when to sell?"

I've been stressed lately. Thanks for reminding me to keep it light-hearted and take the long view!

It depends - are you going to need to pull the $$ out again within the next year or 2 to try to buy a house again?  If so, I'd park it in bonds till you're ready to do that.  Otherwise, if you've truly given up on the house idea, no reason not to dump it back into the market and let it grow.

Ugh, I don't know what we are going to do. It's been a bit of a roller coaster. I know we will sit back, try to regain perspective, and wait for some of the house hunting/rent increase/want to start a family emotions to die down before doing anything.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PaulMaxime on May 17, 2017, 07:46:37 PM
The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.

Hey Thorstach-

The "top" is only a valid call if you specify the timeframe. Is this a short term top, like a month or longer term like a full blown market correction.

I don't think it really matters, I'm just going to keep on doing what I'm doing, but I'm curious if you are willing to make a real call.

Anyone can see the market drop one day and call a top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 18, 2017, 06:23:16 AM
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
That made my day.
This thread hasn't been this funny since page 5.

Posts down.  Humor spiking.  Double top of thread is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 19, 2017, 10:17:06 AM
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4249/34624419461_afab8232d9_z.jpg)

VIX down 26%. Peak fear is in and broken. Sanity being restored.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 19, 2017, 11:15:22 AM
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4249/34624419461_afab8232d9_z.jpg)

VIX down 26%. Peak fear is in and broken. Sanity being restored.

Recommend shorting the inverse double dead cat bounce.

(http://cdn.attackofthecute.com/May-08-2012-04-09-20-sdfgsggfsd.jpg)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 19, 2017, 11:19:53 AM
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/engineer_syllogism.png)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PDXTabs on May 19, 2017, 11:24:16 AM
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/engineer_syllogism.png)

I went through this exact thing in 2008. The market, nor the world is required to behave rationally. It does not owe you that.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on May 20, 2017, 02:03:38 PM

I went through this exact thing in 2008. The market, nor the world is required to behave rationally. It does not owe you that.

in my experience the market is usually quite rational on scales longer than two weeks or so. the world (and its people) on the other hand, can be pretty insane for many years.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PDXTabs on May 20, 2017, 02:34:05 PM
Well, rational is a hard thing to talk about. When the market is going up, and you know it is in a bubble (even the Fed chief is giving speeches about how it is in a bubble), it is rational for you personally to stay in because it is still going up! But that doesn't mean that the market as a whole is behaving rationally.

A lot of people saw the .com bubble and others saw the housing bubble. They said so, they didn't keep it a secret. But the market still continued to go up... for a while.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 20, 2017, 07:20:08 PM
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/engineer_syllogism.png)

Common misconception. The stock market may BE numbers, but it is actually MADE of people.

Charlton Henton found out a few decades ago. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170521/ac38e8b07713713364d4d8bd450ffd43.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on May 20, 2017, 07:55:16 PM
Charlton Henton found out a few decades ago. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170521/ac38e8b07713713364d4d8bd450ffd43.jpg)


(http://i.imgur.com/N14UOW6.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 22, 2017, 02:28:49 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1piub0.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1piub0)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 23, 2017, 10:34:05 AM
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4225/34037036243_849552ed1f_b.jpg)

What fear?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on May 24, 2017, 06:16:34 AM
That's a double-bottom now for the VIX.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 24, 2017, 10:47:45 AM
So.... close...... 

(http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/b4/b4b072ed96eabcf2970ef28e8848293fe977c96ccea526b753f67851760c2cc8.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 24, 2017, 11:16:58 AM
Can we sticky this tread?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 24, 2017, 11:42:18 AM
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
That made my day.
This thread hasn't been this funny since page 5.

Posts down.  Humor spiking.  Double top of thread is in.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 24, 2017, 12:36:26 PM
(https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder844/60538844.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on May 24, 2017, 02:19:01 PM
Vix is in freefall, Dow is green, top isn't in yet.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 24, 2017, 02:31:04 PM
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/600x315/06/7a/d8/067ad88dde7eb1c2af37ef15e6a38db9.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on May 24, 2017, 02:32:54 PM
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/600x315/06/7a/d8/067ad88dde7eb1c2af37ef15e6a38db9.jpg)

Up up and away!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on May 24, 2017, 04:04:22 PM
Hey, guys! Top is in. Today. I'm calling it. :P
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on May 24, 2017, 06:26:48 PM
Hey, guys! Top is in. Today. I'm calling it. :P
I'm calling the bottom. April 13th. The S&P will never go below that in our lifetimes if you reinvested dividends.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cache_Stash on May 25, 2017, 07:04:16 AM
Was yesterday's close the Quintuple top or the Quadruple top?  How many tops does it take to say the market has topped?

Sextuple?
Septuple?
Octuple?
Ninetuple? (hahahahha)

How many licks are there in a tootsie pop?

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mies on May 25, 2017, 07:24:08 AM
I never made it to the top without biting. Ask Mr. Owl.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: runewell on May 25, 2017, 09:03:49 AM
S&P is up 2.8% since this supposed top was called.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on May 25, 2017, 09:10:42 AM
S&P is up 2.8% since this supposed top was called.

That just means there's a new top... and it's in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on May 25, 2017, 09:10:55 AM
The top is getting crushed today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Laserjet3051 on May 25, 2017, 09:42:12 AM
Well, I guess Thorstach's claim that this was a "double" Top needs to be amended. Are we now at triple top? Quadruple top? I just can't fathom that he was serious about any of this, despite his apparently earnest convictions on "The Top." Either a Troll or a severely cognitively impaired-finance wannabe?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 25, 2017, 11:12:00 AM
Thorstach has been notably absent from this thread.

Accordingly, I consulted the Magic Ministry of Financial Futures, and post on his behalf:

"Green SPY on triple top breakout rejection. Support at 2400.  VIX breakout going into long weekend.  So there was only one thing that I could do.  And that was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long."

(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3a/a4/cd/3aa4cd483e334a7af113099cd13ed083.jpg)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on May 25, 2017, 12:20:28 PM
Thorstach has been notably absent from this thread.

Accordingly, I consulted the Magic Ministry of Financial Futures, and post on his behalf:

"Green SPY on triple top breakout rejection. Support at 2400.  VIX breakout going into long weekend.  So there was only one thing that I could do.  And that was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long."

(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3a/a4/cd/3aa4cd483e334a7af113099cd13ed083.jpg)

I don't know why but I laughed my arse off at this. This thread is fantastic.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on May 25, 2017, 02:55:00 PM
Thorstach has been notably absent from this thread.

Accordingly, I consulted the Magic Ministry of Financial Futures, and post on his behalf:

"Green SPY on triple top breakout rejection. Support at 2400.  VIX breakout going into long weekend.  So there was only one thing that I could do.  And that was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long."

(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3a/a4/cd/3aa4cd483e334a7af113099cd13ed083.jpg)

F down 0.91%.  Market unimpressed Jesus is building a  '32 Ford hot rod!  XIV down 1%!  Start praying!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on May 26, 2017, 02:09:11 PM
Gordon Gekko points to the top.  Or something.

(http://cdn.playbuzz.com/cdn/e8085f28-7809-4867-8756-b9ee9e52f01e/f1a42c00-ae5b-4623-85bc-7e50ee5fe5a5.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on May 26, 2017, 06:16:18 PM
Gordon Gekko points to the top.  Or something.


I love how is display of wealth (home, clothes, computers, etc) are all laughable nowadays.  Shows how much richer we are as a society now. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Jamese20 on May 28, 2017, 01:46:55 AM
Gordon Gekko points to the top.  Or something.


I love how is display of wealth (home, clothes, computers, etc) are all laughable nowadays.  Shows how much richer we are as a society now.

this very statement is what makes me optimistic for the future, i bet in the 40's 50's 60's etc... all stated we could not advance and the markets would slow or stagnate. I think the reality is there is not one individual who can foresee the advancements of millions and millions of minds working together to make things better.

30 years from now we will look back at our current up to date photos and way of life we will be saying the exact same thing
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 01, 2017, 10:27:05 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1q49m2.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1q49m2)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 01, 2017, 01:36:33 PM
(http://imgur.com/kjcSg4K.jpg)



(http://i.imgur.com/o2uB6Js.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on June 01, 2017, 01:40:56 PM
Top is in, again. How many times have we hit the top now?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 01, 2017, 01:42:28 PM
Top is in, again. How many times have we hit the top now?

Well, if you're looking at the S&P quite a few times.
But to be fair, today is the first time we broke the dow high that was set on March 1st.
(though most here don't seem to care about the dow)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on June 01, 2017, 02:00:23 PM
Top is in, again. How many times have we hit the top now?

Well, if you're looking at the S&P quite a few times.
But to be fair, today is the first time we broke the dow high that was set on March 1st.
(though most here don't seem to care about the dow)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 01, 2017, 02:11:11 PM
(http://movieboozer.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/well-played.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 01, 2017, 02:21:21 PM
Top is in, again. How many times have we hit the top now?

Well, if you're looking at the S&P quite a few times.
But to be fair, today is the first time we broke the dow high that was set on March 1st.
(though most here don't seem to care about the dow)

Few care about the DJIA because:
1) it isn't a passive index - it's picked by random picker guys
2) it's based only on the PRICE of a stock... yes, so if they decide to include BRK.A it's going to represent the whole index
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on June 02, 2017, 03:26:54 AM
I guess this thread should be closed now.

GAME OVER!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 02, 2017, 06:44:33 AM
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4244/35009672646_68131506a2_z.jpg)

Fear below 10. Markets climbing. Market predictions wrong again. Life goes on.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: runewell on June 02, 2017, 09:20:55 AM

Few care about the DJIA because:
1) it isn't a passive index - it's picked by random picker guys

go on...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 02, 2017, 10:22:54 AM
I guess this thread should be closed now.

GAME OVER!

(https://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/12/123441/3304427-game+over.png)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: rpr on June 02, 2017, 10:23:21 AM
Can I add some more Red Green to this thread?

(http://www.thecomedynetwork.ca/getmedia/5e8ac69e-d93b-456b-b4b3-39d73489489d/redgreen2)
Ooh!  I love me some Red Green :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 02, 2017, 12:41:09 PM
Can I add some more Red Green to this thread?

(http://www.thecomedynetwork.ca/getmedia/5e8ac69e-d93b-456b-b4b3-39d73489489d/redgreen2)
Ooh!  I love me some Red Green :)


"I call the top. and I can change. if I have to. I guess."
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on June 02, 2017, 01:46:57 PM
whatever happened to thorstache/susquatch ?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on June 02, 2017, 01:51:59 PM
whatever happened to thorstache/susquatch ?

Waiting for the next drop to say, "I told you so."  At least, that's how it's been so far.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on June 03, 2017, 12:34:37 AM
whatever happened to thorstache/susquatch ?

I don't know, but I miss him . . . and his brief, confident posts.  Undone by cruel reality.

Surely there is some technical explanation for the breaching of the top!  After all, US Steel is STILL DOWN.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 03, 2017, 07:31:27 AM
whatever happened to thorstache/susquatch ?

I don't know, but I miss him . . . and his brief, confident posts.  Undone by cruel reality.

Surely there is some technical explanation for the breaching of the top!  After all, US Steel is STILL DOWN.

Oh don't worry.
Eventually the market will drop, and when it does he'll come back.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on June 05, 2017, 12:13:44 PM
whatever happened to thorstache/susquatch ?

I don't know, but I miss him . . . and his brief, confident posts.  Undone by cruel reality.

Surely there is some technical explanation for the breaching of the top!  After all, US Steel is STILL DOWN.

Oh don't worry.
Eventually the market will drop, and when it does he'll come back.

Welll it had better hurry up then.  Market is up ~9% in the first five months of the year, so right now it's looking more like the top was actually the bottom.

Should we start taking bets on the lowest future value for the S&P500?  What price will it never again fall below?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 05, 2017, 12:21:58 PM
whatever happened to thorstache/susquatch ?

I don't know, but I miss him . . . and his brief, confident posts.  Undone by cruel reality.

Surely there is some technical explanation for the breaching of the top!  After all, US Steel is STILL DOWN.

Oh don't worry.
Eventually the market will drop, and when it does he'll come back.

Welll it had better hurry up then.  Market is up ~9% in the first five months of the year, so right now it's looking more like the top was actually the bottom.

Should we start taking bets on the lowest future value for the S&P500?  What price will it never again fall below?

S&P500 never goes below 2k again, bottom is in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on June 08, 2017, 11:59:57 AM
But to be fair, today is the first time we broke the dow high that was set on March 1st.
(though most here don't seem to care about the dow)

Today the Dow set another record high.  For people who watch that sort of thing.

edit: typo for solon
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 08, 2017, 12:23:11 PM
But to be fair, today is the first time we broke the dow high that was set on March 1st.
(though most here don't seem to care about the dow)

Today the Down set another record high.  For people who watch that sort of thing.

Could we call this... Down Syndrome?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on June 08, 2017, 12:45:16 PM
It's a strange split market today. S&P 500 is down a smidgeon, but the small cap and mid cap are having a great day.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 08, 2017, 12:56:05 PM
It's a strange split market today. S&P 500 is down a smidgeon, but the small cap and mid cap are having a great day.

Probably because Top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on June 08, 2017, 07:58:47 PM
It's a strange split market today. S&P 500 is down a smidgeon, but the small cap and mid cap are having a great day.

That's classic dead cat split. If you thought the bounce was bad...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 09, 2017, 08:20:47 AM
Shit guys... new Top is in for the S&P500 and DJIA.

When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 09, 2017, 08:33:59 AM
Shit guys... new Top is in for the S&amp;P500 and DJIA.

When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.
When we hit supernova Dow: it's like red Dow, but at 10,000,000.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on June 09, 2017, 08:34:30 AM
When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.

OP has gone radio silent, as has basically everyone else who has spent the past several years making proclamations of doom.  Maybe everyone is finally on board the growth train?

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on June 09, 2017, 09:03:42 AM
When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.

OP has gone radio silent, as has basically everyone else who has spent the past several years making proclamations of doom.  Maybe everyone is finally on board the growth train?

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

I am sure the OP will come back with a new screen name calling a new top in due time. In the meantime, as you requested (although not front page of Market Watch but rather front page of Yahoo news):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f8afde81-7f95-3b86-99dc-edb9bfa737ac/ss_jim-rogers%3A-the-worst-crash.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f8afde81-7f95-3b86-99dc-edb9bfa737ac/ss_jim-rogers%3A-the-worst-crash.html)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PathtoFIRE on June 09, 2017, 09:19:45 AM
This thread brings a smile to my face every time I see it on my unread list
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 09, 2017, 09:29:02 AM
SPY from the day this thread was started (4/11/17) to today:

(http://i.imgur.com/sVUOSgV.png)
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/60/a8/41/60a841038053102c1e6f241728e8df04.jpg)


Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Riff on June 09, 2017, 09:41:47 AM
I love this thread!

(ptf)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on June 09, 2017, 09:44:12 AM
I just don't understand.  The modern day phrenology technical analysis was so clear.  How could the market not follow what it says?  If we can't count on modern day phrenology technical analysis, what can we count on?  The world is falling apart.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 09, 2017, 10:07:52 AM
This is Spinal Top

(idk, it just sounded funny)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 09, 2017, 10:14:51 AM
(http://playschooleducation.co.nz/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/tip-top-tour.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 09, 2017, 10:31:20 AM
Srsly, can we sticky this thread?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 09, 2017, 10:37:31 AM

I am sure the OP will come back with a new screen name calling a new top in due time. In the meantime, as you requested (although not front page of Market Watch but rather front page of Yahoo news):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f8afde81-7f95-3b86-99dc-edb9bfa737ac/ss_jim-rogers%3A-the-worst-crash.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f8afde81-7f95-3b86-99dc-edb9bfa737ac/ss_jim-rogers%3A-the-worst-crash.html)

That same guy, Jim Rogers, predicted the same crash in:

- 2016:
https://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/05/24/first-soros-now-jim-rogers-predicts-trillion-dollar-biblical-crash.html

- 2015:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/93027/jim-rogers-turmoil-coming

- 2014:
http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/stock-market-crash-in-2014/

- 2013: (this one is really good - "Eventually, the whole world is going to collapse")
https://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/12/04/famed-investors-dire-warning-this-is-going-to-end-badly-be-prepared-be-worried-and-be-careful/

- 2012: (complete with graphic of "triple top")
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2012/02/stock-market-crash-predictions-for-2012.html



In light of Jim Rogers' obvious expertise and success, here's my financial advice:  "do not take financial advice from Jim Rogers."
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 09, 2017, 10:39:54 AM
This is Spinal Top

(idk, it just sounded funny)

(https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder864/500x/78136864/spinal-tap-goes-to-11-this-stock-market-goes-to-11.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 09, 2017, 11:00:12 AM

I am sure the OP will come back with a new screen name calling a new top in due time. In the meantime, as you requested (although not front page of Market Watch but rather front page of Yahoo news):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f8afde81-7f95-3b86-99dc-edb9bfa737ac/ss_jim-rogers%3A-the-worst-crash.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f8afde81-7f95-3b86-99dc-edb9bfa737ac/ss_jim-rogers%3A-the-worst-crash.html)

That same guy, Jim Rogers, predicted the same crash in:

- 2016:
https://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/05/24/first-soros-now-jim-rogers-predicts-trillion-dollar-biblical-crash.html

- 2015:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/93027/jim-rogers-turmoil-coming

- 2014:
http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/stock-market-crash-in-2014/

- 2013: (this one is really good - "Eventually, the whole world is going to collapse")
https://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/12/04/famed-investors-dire-warning-this-is-going-to-end-badly-be-prepared-be-worried-and-be-careful/

- 2012: (complete with graphic of "triple top")
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2012/02/stock-market-crash-predictions-for-2012.html



In light of Jim Rogers' obvious expertise and success, here's my financial advice:  "do not take financial advice from Jim Rogers."

He'll eventually be right, in 2021, and everyone will forget the decade of failed predictions and claim him as the Prophet of Wall StreetTM
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 09, 2017, 11:00:33 AM
This is Spinal Top

(idk, it just sounded funny)

(https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder864/500x/78136864/spinal-tap-goes-to-11-this-stock-market-goes-to-11.jpg)

THAT'S the joke I was looking for! I knew it was in there somewhere.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PathtoFIRE on June 09, 2017, 11:27:20 AM
That same guy, Jim Rogers, predicted the same crash in:
<snip>
- 2012: (complete with graphic of "triple top")
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2012/02/stock-market-crash-predictions-for-2012.html

Taken from above
"... So, the problems are going to continue to get worse until somebody solves the basic underlying problem of too much spending and too much debt...for myself, I’m short stocks around the world, I’m short American technology stocks, I’m short emerging market stocks and I’m short European stocks….I own commodities…”

So if he was actually in these various short and long positions, he should be wiped out. Everything that he says he's short in 2012 has appreciated if not boomed, and I don't know commodities, but looking at the 10 year annualized returns for all of the Dow Jones commodities indices, they are all negative except for their Precious Metals. Is this the real reason that he moved to China (as he mentions in the original link about this guy a few posts ago)?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on June 09, 2017, 12:15:34 PM
I just skimmed through his blog for the past 5 years and the guy has spent most of it waiting on the sidelines, almost completely missing out on the market growth over the past 5 years
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 09, 2017, 12:19:30 PM
I just skimmed through his blog for the past 5 years and the guy has spent most of it waiting on the sidelines, almost completely missing out on the market growth over the past 5 years

Yes, and now he has a vested interest in the market tanking.  He's put money and reputation on the line.  So he really, really, really wants the market to crash.  That's a pretty crappy situation to be in.  Can't be psychologically healthy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on June 09, 2017, 12:37:06 PM
Poor fellow has also bought shorts plenty of times. I doubt market volatility saved his ass.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 09, 2017, 12:50:20 PM

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

Shit! The market has tanked today! Sol, you're right. Red DOW! TOP IS IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 09, 2017, 01:03:26 PM
Shit! The market has tanked today! Sol, you're right. Red DOW! TOP IS IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111

Fear never left, VIX above 11, SPY breaking down. XIV to follow, the end is nigh.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 09, 2017, 01:09:32 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/5UZAwQa.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on June 09, 2017, 01:26:08 PM
Poor fellow has also bought shorts plenty of times. I doubt market volatility saved his ass.
So you're saying he has really taken it in the shorts?  (Americanism, sorry, but I had too....)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on June 09, 2017, 08:22:13 PM

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

Shit! The market has tanked today! Sol, you're right. Red DOW! TOP IS IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111

not gonna lie, today was the first day since early-mid 2016 that I had no clue whatsoever regarding market actions, it was pretty scary.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mies on June 13, 2017, 02:56:14 PM
Is top in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 13, 2017, 03:49:21 PM
(https://img.maximummedia.ie/joe_ie/eyJkYXRhIjoie1widXJsXCI6XCJodHRwOlxcXC9cXFwvbWVkaWEtam9lLm1heGltdW1tZWRpYS5pZS5zMy5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tXFxcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcXFwvdXBsb2Fkc1xcXC8yMDE0XFxcLzA0XFxcL3RvcC1ndW4zLmpwZ1wiLFwid2lkdGhcIjo2NDcsXCJoZWlnaHRcIjozNDAsXCJkZWZhdWx0XCI6XCJodHRwczpcXFwvXFxcL3d3dy5qb2UuaWVcXFwvYXNzZXRzXFxcL2ltYWdlc1xcXC9qb2VcXFwvbm8taW1hZ2UucG5nP3Y9M1wifSIsImhhc2giOiI2ZTJlY2YyNzQxZjE5NTZlODAxMmI3N2FmODQwNmY2YjljZTJkNDMyIn0=/top-gun3.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on June 13, 2017, 03:55:52 PM
Wait, is that a danger zone (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzQ3eBerHfM) reference?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thenextguy on June 13, 2017, 04:29:17 PM
I think he meant Topper Harley.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/616149193414049792/i6h6R6Gf.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 13, 2017, 06:19:17 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/UNPNaRa.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 14, 2017, 01:59:41 PM
The top is in, again.






Just like last time.




And the next time.






And the time after that.





Seems familiar, doesn't it?





(http://static1.squarespace.com/static/51b3dc8ee4b051b96ceb10de/51ce6099e4b0d911b4489b79/5355b074e4b0342a4d239edd/1398179653333/edge-of-tomorrow-poster-live-die-repeat-preview.jpg?format=1000w)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on June 14, 2017, 02:15:26 PM
So many tops!  Each red dot is not a "red DOW" but a new top!

148 tops over the last four years!

(http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/148.jpg)

Quote
Calling the top is a really, really hard game to play. Imagine being negative on the market in 2013, and seeing 148 new all-time highs over the next four years? What does that do to your psychology? Can you ever recover from that?

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/06/13/all-time-high/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 14, 2017, 02:29:35 PM
The top just keep coming back to life, reborn like a phoenix from the flames.

Like a Megatop Phoenix.

(http://www.music-on-click.com/open2b/var/catalog/images/4816/0-4a35734a-400.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on June 14, 2017, 03:22:21 PM
This thread has lost all substance and it is just a collection of silly memes.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on June 14, 2017, 03:22:47 PM
Except it never had substance to begin with.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 14, 2017, 05:45:22 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/mj9k6.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 15, 2017, 02:17:59 PM
That's it, boys. After today's performance, top is gone.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on June 16, 2017, 05:01:37 AM
Oh no. The world is coming to an end. Run for the hills.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on June 16, 2017, 05:35:34 AM
That's it, boys. After today's performance, top is gone.

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!!! No wait Buy Buy Buy!!! Oh lordy I am confused.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: UnleashHell on June 18, 2017, 07:40:19 PM
That's it, boys. After today's performance, top is gone.

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!!! No wait Buy Buy Buy!!! Oh lordy I am confused.

are you Jim Cramer?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on June 19, 2017, 05:11:48 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/mj9k6.jpg)

Man, your username does NOT check out. You seem REALLY enamored with these bearded guys. ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on June 19, 2017, 05:13:01 AM
When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.

OP has gone radio silent, as has basically everyone else who has spent the past several years making proclamations of doom.  Maybe everyone is finally on board the growth train?

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

Well, if all these doom and gloom guys finally give up and buy in, we can have the final runup before the market goes on sale with a nice big crash!

:D
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 19, 2017, 07:13:30 AM
When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.

OP has gone radio silent, as has basically everyone else who has spent the past several years making proclamations of doom.  Maybe everyone is finally on board the growth train?

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

Well, if all these doom and gloom guys finally give up and buy in, we can have the final runup before the market goes on sale with a nice big crash!

:D

Nah, they won't buy in.  The reason they aren't posting any more is that they've locked themselves in their fallout shelters, we'll start hearing from them again when the canned food runs out (halfway up the next bull-run). 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 19, 2017, 11:03:46 AM
Anyone know where this goes?

(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/b2/a1/56/b2a1567436f3a291ebbfb2a298550892.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on June 19, 2017, 11:39:30 AM
Ok, the real top is in today. Disregard all other previous calls of the top. Also disregard this top if market goes higher in the future.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on June 19, 2017, 11:39:46 AM
Market is up pretty bigly today.

And yet, I'm still seeing articles like the one today that said, "The S&P 500 has already met its average return for a full year, but don't expect it to stay here."

Which to me means we haven't hit the top. Since everyone says it's not until children start giving you stock tips that the top is really in.

Also, speaking of that article, I find it hilarious how these sound like the random stats you'll find watching sports; "This is the first time in 23 seasons that a player has caught 7 balls for over 67 yards but under 82."

From the article:
Quote
When the S&P 500 was up at least 7.5 percent on its 100th trading day of a year, as it was this year, it added to those gains through year-end 20 out of 23 times.

And since 1950, when the S&P 500 has made at least 15 new all-time highs through May, it was far more likely to keep rising through December, and the average further gain over the final seven months was 7.7 percent, far better than the 4.5 percent average for June-December in all years.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 19, 2017, 02:37:34 PM
Watch out!  Bad times ahead!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/equity-allocation-indicator-flashes-bear-market-warning-2017-06-16
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 19, 2017, 02:54:14 PM
Stop reading the media.  Stop watching the news.  What good can possibly come of it?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on June 19, 2017, 04:17:21 PM
Stop reading the media.  Stop watching the news.  What good can possibly come of it?

It's just not worth it is it. You just have a plan and let whatever is going to happen happen.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 19, 2017, 04:24:42 PM
Stop reading the media.  Stop watching the news.  What good can possibly come of it?

I don't read financial media or follow financial news. I do read these forums and it seems people love to post click-bait a lot. I ignore it as much as I can, but I do occasionally miss judge things and end up on a click-bait site feeling like I am getting stupider by the minute. ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on June 19, 2017, 11:36:55 PM
I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on June 19, 2017, 11:47:36 PM
I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.


Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MasterStache on June 20, 2017, 05:20:43 AM
I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Exactly! Wait what?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on June 20, 2017, 05:37:25 AM
I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

It's a scam as old as investing history. 50 years ago, it was letters being sent out.

Start Edvard Joons Investing Company.

Print up two batches of letters. Half say the market (or a single stock) is going UP. Half say it's going DOWN.

Mail letters out to your mailing list.

After the market moves, set away the half of the mailing list you sent bad predictions.

Repeat with the half you sent a correct prediction.

After  a couple of iterations, get the suckers who believe you are right all the time to pay you (Maybe for your newsletter. Maybe signing up for you as their EJ broker, whatever) - now you're on easy street.

Now get the remaining mailing list you sent "bad" or "mixed" answers, add any new ones you have, rename yourself Mark Antony Investing Company and start the scam over again.

In the modern age, you just create various identities on various sites and take opposing views. Much cheaper.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on June 20, 2017, 07:33:12 AM
But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Wow Sol, I almost bit on that one, well done ! 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 20, 2017, 08:11:25 AM
I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Makes total sense, what else could cause all these dead cats to bounce?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wenchsenior on June 20, 2017, 08:14:36 AM
But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Wow Sol, I almost bit on that one, well done !

Awesome!   I'm starting to think someone could go to Yahoo's financial page, pluck all the sexy words out of each article, create a random word-combo generator, run it, and then post the results all over the internet and be called a genius by a bunch of investing idiots.  Honestly, people like thorstache are half the reason I click on the this section of the forum.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 20, 2017, 12:00:42 PM
Posted this earlier, but posing again because it is so awesome:

https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

The latest random advice? 

The smart trader nowadays will always diversify high-yield liability structures.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on June 20, 2017, 04:48:31 PM
But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Wow Sol, I almost bit on that one, well done !

I was close but I didn't bite. It is so similar though to the stuff that keeps coming up about how the big crash is coming.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on June 20, 2017, 09:12:14 PM
Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on June 21, 2017, 05:33:47 AM
Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

That would be a great opportunity to practice your Stoicism!  ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Padonak on June 21, 2017, 07:37:07 PM
Top was in on Monday. You missed it, suckas! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 21, 2017, 07:59:58 PM
Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

Latest post - another recession is coming: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/06/20/next-recession/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 22, 2017, 06:51:20 AM
Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

Latest post - another recession is coming: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/06/20/next-recession/

Another recession is still coming. Just like it was back in 2013 when he first made that point and just like it will be in 2020 if the market continues to go up.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 22, 2017, 12:06:21 PM
Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

Latest post - another recession is coming: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/06/20/next-recession/

Another recession is still coming. Just like it was back in 2013 when he first made that point and just like it will be in 2020 if the market continues to go up.

Let's also not forget that markets can still go up even if a recession comes.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 22, 2017, 12:12:30 PM
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4207/35303076762_de6bb6e868_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on June 22, 2017, 10:35:56 PM
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4207/35303076762_de6bb6e868_b.jpg)


The Dead Horse Spiral is probably a more reliable indicator than a Dead Cat Bounce.

(https://unaffiliatedcritic.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GAME-OF-THRONES-3x03-Walk-of-Punishment.jpeg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on June 27, 2017, 07:19:09 PM
Top is in after false breakout

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDXiPWdXYAA2JUK.png:large)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 27, 2017, 07:54:36 PM
(http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/smuff/images/2/2f/It_begins.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20120126222223)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 27, 2017, 08:00:52 PM
thorstach is back!!! the top must really be in!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on June 27, 2017, 08:15:43 PM
Thorstach's greatest hits:

Top is in (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1510170/#msg1510170)” April 11, 2017 - (S&P 2,353.78)

Double top is in (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1549068/#msg1549068)” May 11, 2017 (S&P 2,394.44)

Top is in (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1604523/#msg1604523)” June 27th, 2017 ( S&P 2,419.38)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 27, 2017, 08:56:09 PM
Thorstach's greatest hits:

Top is in (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1510170/#msg1510170)” April 11, 2017 - (S&P 2,353.78)

Double top is in (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1549068/#msg1549068)” May 11, 2017 (S&P 2,394.44)

Top is in (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1604523/#msg1604523)” June 27th, 2017 ( S&P 2,419.38)

Just keep predicting the top Thorstach. Sooner or later you'll be "right". :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on June 27, 2017, 09:10:58 PM
Thank you Thorstach
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 28, 2017, 08:59:54 AM
Looks like we might have another false breakout today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on June 28, 2017, 09:21:52 AM
Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

Call it again, thorstach!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: UnleashHell on June 28, 2017, 12:07:20 PM
the bounciest dead cat ever.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: flyersman on June 29, 2017, 08:36:44 AM
I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on June 29, 2017, 09:22:28 AM
I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic
Red and green are the new noise (beta for jargon speech).   

Is there a "incipient sneeze" pattern in the jargon?  Aaaaaaah,.....Aaaaah.... Choo!, or is that just the double top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: flyersman on June 29, 2017, 09:42:46 AM
I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic
Red and green are the new noise (beta for jargon speech).   

Is there a "incipient sneeze" pattern in the jargon?  Aaaaaaah,.....Aaaaah.... Choo!, or is that just the double top?

Now back down 18 so Down 20, Up 20, down 18. Im guessing tomorrow will be flat or up 20
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 29, 2017, 09:52:10 AM
I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic

Those are +/- 0.5% to 1% moves. That's not overly crazy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 29, 2017, 10:16:49 AM
I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic

Those are +/- 0.5% to 1% moves. That's not overly crazy.

Pretty sure flyersman is being sarcastic.... i hope
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 29, 2017, 10:18:40 AM
I was going to try to debate, too. But then I remembered what thread I'm in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on June 29, 2017, 10:45:53 AM
Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

Call it again, thorstach!

Alright folks, top is REALLY in after a couple of false breakouts this week.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on June 29, 2017, 11:10:02 AM
http://isthisthetop.com/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on June 29, 2017, 11:22:20 AM
Thorstach was right after all. Top was in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on June 29, 2017, 11:23:58 AM
(http://www.investorsunderground.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/daytradingfoundbottommeme.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on June 29, 2017, 11:28:55 AM
http://isthisthetop.com/

Someone must have lit the thorstach alert.  VIX up 30%!!!

Great link to refer back to on future days with large moves!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on June 30, 2017, 10:13:06 AM
I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic

Those are +/- 0.5% to 1% moves. That's not overly crazy.

Histogram of two indexes daily moves indicates  that Retire-Canada is correct.

http://www.etfreplay.com/volatility_histogram.aspx      it is nice to have data even for a thread like this.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on June 30, 2017, 11:27:49 AM
  it is nice to have data even for a thread like this.

(https://media3.giphy.com/media/a79Jr229u3bzO/200_s.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 30, 2017, 11:53:57 AM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here). 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on June 30, 2017, 12:24:01 PM
Oh.  Hell.  Yes.   Hadn't checked this thread in a few days.

Going camping this weekend.  If I see any bearish divergences, I'm gonna play dead cat.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Tonyahu on June 30, 2017, 12:35:10 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 30, 2017, 12:38:59 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

Well, we have no idea what's brewing. The S&P 500 could double in value before the next crash, which could be years away. Or it could happen tomorrow.

The ONLY way to consistently make money in the stock market is to buy and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 30, 2017, 12:58:35 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

What if the market goes up another 20% over the next 2 years?  You'll miss out on all the $$.  People were saying "there has to be a crash, stocks are overpriced" 3 years ago on this very forum.  Go back and look.  And then think about ALL the $$ those people missed out on, between then and now.  Trying to time the market is a fool's errand, as thorstach has so elegantly shown on this very thread.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on June 30, 2017, 12:58:50 PM
I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

No. That's crazy talk. It's amazing how every market timing post starts with "I know I shouldn't time the market, but..." and then goes on to explain why this time is different. It's not different.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Tonyahu on June 30, 2017, 01:08:49 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

Well, we have no idea what's brewing. The S&P 500 could double in value before the next crash, which could be years away. Or it could happen tomorrow.

The ONLY way to consistently make money in the stock market is to buy and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold.

Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

What if the market goes up another 20% over the next 2 years?  You'll miss out on all the $$.  People were saying "there has to be a crash, stocks are overpriced" 3 years ago on this very forum.  Go back and look.  And then think about ALL the $$ those people missed out on, between then and now.  Trying to time the market is a fool's errand, as thorstach has so elegantly shown on this very thread.

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

No. That's crazy talk. It's amazing how every market timing post starts with "I know I shouldn't time the market, but..." and then goes on to explain why this time is different. It's not different.

I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OneCoolCat on June 30, 2017, 01:11:03 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

Well, we have no idea what's brewing. The S&P 500 could double in value before the next crash, which could be years away. Or it could happen tomorrow.

The ONLY way to consistently make money in the stock market is to buy and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold.

Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

What if the market goes up another 20% over the next 2 years?  You'll miss out on all the $$.  People were saying "there has to be a crash, stocks are overpriced" 3 years ago on this very forum.  Go back and look.  And then think about ALL the $$ those people missed out on, between then and now.  Trying to time the market is a fool's errand, as thorstach has so elegantly shown on this very thread.

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

No. That's crazy talk. It's amazing how every market timing post starts with "I know I shouldn't time the market, but..." and then goes on to explain why this time is different. It's not different.

I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?

The simple answer is that today's siren is no louder than yesteryear's.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 30, 2017, 01:11:38 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

Well, we have no idea what's brewing. The S&P 500 could double in value before the next crash, which could be years away. Or it could happen tomorrow.

The ONLY way to consistently make money in the stock market is to buy and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold.

Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

What if the market goes up another 20% over the next 2 years?  You'll miss out on all the $$.  People were saying "there has to be a crash, stocks are overpriced" 3 years ago on this very forum.  Go back and look.  And then think about ALL the $$ those people missed out on, between then and now.  Trying to time the market is a fool's errand, as thorstach has so elegantly shown on this very thread.

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

No. That's crazy talk. It's amazing how every market timing post starts with "I know I shouldn't time the market, but..." and then goes on to explain why this time is different. It's not different.

I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?

I don't think you understand. We have NO IDEA whether or not we're in a housing bubble, stock bubble, tulip bulb bubble, etc. The only reasonable option is to be all in, all the time.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on June 30, 2017, 01:48:00 PM
I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?

No, I don't.  But even if I did, the same thing would happen as the last time - it would drop, the market would recover, and then some. 

What if it goes up 20% over the next 2 years, has a 25% drop, and then recovers another 30% over the following decade.  You'd still make a lot of money and virtually zero risk as long as you don't take your money out.  The moment your start trying to time the market (ie, predicting "bubbles") you increase your risk exponentially.  And not only is your risk higher, but your return is not going to be better.  Because you won't be better at it than the pros.  And the pros do worse than indexing over a long time period.  So there you go.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on June 30, 2017, 02:21:37 PM
But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?
No

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?
No

I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?
No
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: rpr on June 30, 2017, 02:34:11 PM
Tonyahu, Nobody knows Nothing.

If you are exceedingly loss averse, then  the stock market may not be for you. The consequence of this is the following:

-- You will not be able to use the 4% withdrawal rule.   
-- You will likely need to accumulate a much larger stash in more safer investments (bonds/CDs etc) which have much lower real returns (even negative).
-- You may have to work longer as well.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on June 30, 2017, 02:36:56 PM
I think Tonyahu is thorstach. Has anyone ever seen them in the same room together? Just sayin.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Scortius on June 30, 2017, 03:57:14 PM
This idea that when the next recession hits the market will lose half its value is insanity.  Look at how much value the market lost in most of the major crashes in history.  Greater than 50% is a once-in-a-lifetime event.  Even considering the 2008 crash, if you sold the S&P500 in early 2007, a bit before the crash (value ~1400), and bought in late 2009, a bit after the bottom (value ~1050), you only got a 33% return.  Nothing to sneeze at, but that's taking into consideration that you actually just timed the worst market crash in modern history. 

What's more likely to happen is that you sell (or fail to buy) today at ~2400, the market wiggles around for a while, goes to 2600 or 2800 or 3000, then has a minor correction down to 2500 or 2700 or whatever, and then continues a slow and steady climb.  You just don't know which number will be the top and which will be the bottom, but you do know that the slow and steady climb will resume and continue for decades to come.  In order to 'time the market', you have to guess BOTH the top AND the bottom. And it's very likely that the 'bottom' (assuming you can even time the bottom correctly) will end up being higher than the price you can get today, right now.

Sorry for actual words....
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wenchsenior on June 30, 2017, 05:26:52 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?
[/b]

Something is ALWAYS brewing, every damn day.  Good luck figuring out what that is with any consistency.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on June 30, 2017, 11:17:49 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

Well, we have no idea what's brewing. The S&P 500 could double in value before the next crash, which could be years away. Or it could happen tomorrow.

The ONLY way to consistently make money in the stock market is to buy and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold and hold.

Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

What if the market goes up another 20% over the next 2 years?  You'll miss out on all the $$.  People were saying "there has to be a crash, stocks are overpriced" 3 years ago on this very forum.  Go back and look.  And then think about ALL the $$ those people missed out on, between then and now.  Trying to time the market is a fool's errand, as thorstach has so elegantly shown on this very thread.

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

No. That's crazy talk. It's amazing how every market timing post starts with "I know I shouldn't time the market, but..." and then goes on to explain why this time is different. It's not different.

I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?

Go watch the movie "The Big Short".  It's about the housing crash.  I recognize that it's Hollywood, but it's close enough to the real story and on point to the message (and fun to watch).  All of the professionals in the industry missed the "signs" of a massive bubble about to burst, except a few really smart experts who took advantage of it. 

Investing in a singular company well is extremely difficult and time intensive.  Warren Buffet is world renowned for a reason.  Understanding the economy as a whole is infinitely harder. 

Index funds were designed so people could invest for the long term and not have to be experts.  Appreciate Bogle's gift and take heart the lesson he advocates.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on July 01, 2017, 03:24:40 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDmisQwXkAENlQG.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on July 01, 2017, 05:11:32 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/GxiWhVD.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on July 01, 2017, 05:37:55 PM
thorstach is back!!! the top must really be in!!

He's back! With false breakdancing!

Someone's gonna be SERVED!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on July 01, 2017, 05:40:06 PM
Daily volatility is simply a non-issue for buy and hold investors (which should be everyone here).

True. But my concern is more that, I am only 25 so it may be wise to horde cash over the next year or two (as opposed to putting it in the market), to get that inevitable 50% off deal within the next 1-3 years. Thoughts?

I know "time in the market is better than timing the market" but can't we all agree something is brewing?

What if the market goes up another 20% over the next 2 years?  You'll miss out on all the $$.  People were saying "there has to be a crash, stocks are overpriced" 3 years ago on this very forum.  Go back and look.  And then think about ALL the $$ those people missed out on, between then and now.  Trying to time the market is a fool's errand, as thorstach has so elegantly shown on this very thread.

He truly is an unintentional hero, debunking market guessing by being so confidently wrong.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on July 02, 2017, 01:12:38 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDmisQwXkAENlQG.jpg:large)


Given that in 2009-10 the S&P500 rebounded super fast from the March 2009 low, a less pessimistic bear might conclude that the March 2009 low was in hindsight a market over reaction, and a bit of an anomaly.

Personally, I like to consider this bull run starting at an S&P500 index of around 1,060, after it corrected in 2010 after the initial bounce back.

This being the case the size of this bull run is only 129%. Sure, still a big bull run, but far less dramatic than the chart illustrates.

... but I am a hopeless optimist
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Paul der Krake on July 02, 2017, 11:31:48 AM

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

(http://i.imgur.com/HbxpWE7.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on July 04, 2017, 08:39:20 PM
Ha is that Sol's picture on the right side?  LOL
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 04, 2017, 09:50:10 PM
Ha is that Sol's picture on the right side?  LOL

Amazingly, this is not the first time the internet has photoshopped my avatar picture in response to something I've said.

Cheers, Paul.  Keep up the good work.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Livewell on July 09, 2017, 07:54:53 AM
Had to add this fun and sarcastic op-ed from Bloomberg on how to create your own market top call (since everyone's doing it this season!)

An Expert's Guide to Calling a Market Top
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-07/an-expert-s-guide-to-calling-a-market-top
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 09, 2017, 09:54:47 AM
Had to add this fun and sarcastic op-ed from Bloomberg on how to create your own market top call (since everyone's doing it this season!)

An Expert's Guide to Calling a Market Top
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-07/an-expert-s-guide-to-calling-a-market-top

I think that article covers it!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ender on July 09, 2017, 03:40:29 PM
I understand that logic. Do you guys feel we have approached a housing bubble / highly over-inflated prices?

No, I don't.  But even if I did, the same thing would happen as the last time - it would drop, the market would recover, and then some. 

What if it goes up 20% over the next 2 years, has a 25% drop, and then recovers another 30% over the following decade.  You'd still make a lot of money and virtually zero risk as long as you don't take your money out.  The moment your start trying to time the market (ie, predicting "bubbles") you increase your risk exponentially.  And not only is your risk higher, but your return is not going to be better.  Because you won't be better at it than the pros.  And the pros do worse than indexing over a long time period.  So there you go.

It's worth pointing out that with these incredibly scientific arbitrary numbers, your combined return would end up only being about 1.3%/year -- likely less than inflation (though who knows).

One thing I think that gets missed and is relevant to point out is that a 25% drop followed by a 25% recovery does not fully restore your portfolio to its original value. Not that it's really actionable as the best strategy is still buy/hold since you don't have a unique crystal ball, but it is worth noting. I you do have one, then other people do too, and the market is priced accordingly, based on the risk/valuation to date. Unless your crystal ball is unique it doesn't even matter.

If people were 100% confident that on January 2nd, 2018 there would be a major market correction, that would be reflected in the price of the affected indices today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 09, 2017, 06:20:26 PM
If people were 100% confident that on January 2nd, 2018 there would be a major market correction, that would be reflected in the price of the affected indices today.

If I were 100% confident of a major market correction on Jan 2 2018, I would be fully invested until Jan 1, 2018.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: LAGuy on July 09, 2017, 06:40:32 PM
If people were 100% confident that on January 2nd, 2018 there would be a major market correction, that would be reflected in the price of the affected indices today.

If I were 100% confident of a major market correction on Jan 2 2018, I would be fully invested until Jan 1, 2018.

I think the point was that if it was common knowledge that a major correction was coming on a certain date, it would somewhat paradoxically not actually occur and would instead be reflected in current market prices.

One thing I like to think about is as of today (or as of a week ago or whenever the most recent market high was), in the ENTIRE history of the stock market there has NEVER been a bad time to buy. Pick your top from any historical date, and today you look like a genius for buying and holding it until now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cache_Stash on July 10, 2017, 03:30:39 PM
If people were 100% confident that on January 2nd, 2018 there would be a major market correction, that would be reflected in the price of the affected indices today.

If I were 100% confident of a major market correction on Jan 2 2018, I would be fully invested until Jan 1, 2018.

I think the point was that if it was common knowledge that a major correction was coming on a certain date, it would somewhat paradoxically not actually occur and would instead be reflected in current market prices.

One thing I like to think about is as of today (or as of a week ago or whenever the most recent market high was), in the ENTIRE history of the stock market there has NEVER been a bad time to buy. Pick your top from any historical date, and today you look like a genius for buying and holding it until now.

Maybe that's the new sell signal.  If it is, it isn't anymore. Efficient market theory?

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 12, 2017, 05:15:06 PM
Might need thorstach's help on this one --

Is the top in when it's the Dow, or are we using the S&P 500, or some other measure?

If it's the Dow, it's party time!

http://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.DJI

(http://cdn3.meme.am/cache/instances/folder379/500x/67249379/waynes-world-party-time-party-time-excellent.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 12, 2017, 06:29:51 PM
I think I know when top is really in now.

When thorstach starts posting about how the market is going to go up, then we know top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 13, 2017, 02:15:45 PM
Don't call it a comeback!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg


(How do you embed video on this forum?)


Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 13, 2017, 02:23:27 PM
Don't call it a comeback!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg


(How do you embed video on this forum?)

The forum needs to have flash embeds enabled, which I don't think it does.  Then you do it like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg

Some forums also let you use [youtube]vimZj8HW0Kg[/youtube].

Looks like we can do neither.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on July 13, 2017, 02:24:33 PM
I think I know when top is really in now.

When thorstach starts posting about how the market is going to go up, then we know top is in.

no, it's when mrpercentage comes back saying green dow ahead!

Seriously though, I hope that guy is alright, he just disappeared.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 13, 2017, 02:25:48 PM
Oh well.

Sol, been meaning to ask you:  did you pick your avatar as one of "the three guys" from the RevCo album covers? 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 13, 2017, 02:58:16 PM
I think I know when top is really in now.

When thorstach starts posting about how the market is going to go up, then we know top is in.

no, it's when mrpercentage comes back saying green dow ahead!

Seriously though, I hope that guy is alright, he just disappeared.

I miss mrpercentage too. But thorstach helps.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on July 13, 2017, 03:01:03 PM
Go watch the movie "The Big Short".  It's about the housing crash.  I recognize that it's Hollywood, but it's close enough to the real story and on point to the message (and fun to watch).  All of the professionals in the industry missed the "signs" of a massive bubble about to burst, except a few really smart experts who took advantage of it.

Investing in a singular company well is extremely difficult and time intensive.  Warren Buffet is world renowned for a reason.  Understanding the economy as a whole is infinitely harder. 

Index funds were designed so people could invest for the long term and not have to be experts.  Appreciate Bogle's gift and take heart the lesson he advocates.

Isn't that just survivorship bias?  What about all those people that lost a lot money due to bad timing? They were too early, or too late in calling the bubble and got left holding the bag.  If somebody is always crying wolf eventually someone will be right by pure luck.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on July 14, 2017, 08:24:12 AM
Wait, is today the new top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: marielle on July 14, 2017, 08:27:59 AM
Wait, is today the new top?

Yes
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 14, 2017, 08:29:16 AM
Wait, is today the new top?

Not until the day's close, in my mind, but right now today is another new top for both SPX and DJIA. 

All previous calls of the top in this thread were wrong.  Maybe the next one will be right?  Thorstach?  MrPercentage?  Bueller?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on July 14, 2017, 11:08:01 AM
All previous calls of the top in this thread were wrong.  Maybe the next one will be right?  Thorstach?  MrPercentage?  Bueller?

Maybe Ben Stein (of the Bueller quote), who's written a nice book on market timing.
Yes, You Can Time the Market by Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth   
TL;DR  only buy stocks when they are below the rolling  15? year average.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on July 14, 2017, 02:04:01 PM
Top is in today for SPY and .INX. Not for VOO or IVV. I am confused.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on July 14, 2017, 02:15:45 PM
Top is in today for SPY and .INX. Not for VOO or IVV. I am confused.

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5743/21064694355_811ce545af_b.jpg)

That's why most of us can't be "Market Experts" please wait for Torstach to explain what's going on before you make any moves.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on July 14, 2017, 02:29:14 PM
Top is in today for SPY and .INX. Not for VOO or IVV. I am confused.

(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5743/21064694355_811ce545af_b.jpg)

That's why most of us can't be "Market Experts" please wait for Torstach to explain what's going on before you make any moves.
Sweet illustration.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Morpheus on July 16, 2017, 05:07:17 PM
I couldn't find any other relevant thread to post this in, so I'll use this one.
Here is something I've been wondering about lately:
Since around election date until now S&P gained almost 18% in less than 10 months (VTSAX gained a bit over 18%)
I've heard and read a lot of opinions that correlate this unusually high rate, to the expectation and optimism that the new administration will deliver on it's promise to lower the corporate tax drastically. That makes a lot of sense to me - less tax for corporations means more profits that can go to investing more in R&D thus producing better products and services, and being able to sell them in a lower price. all of those will produce even more profits.
Although at the beginning it seemed that the new administration is eager to deliver upon it's promises (Executive orders, etc...). De facto, 6 months in, it has achieved very little if anything and I haven't heard about any progress on the corporate tax front. Not only that, the new administration is under multiple investigations that (regardless of whether the accusations are true or not) makes it harder for the administration to concentrate and do it's job. All that been happening suggests that there is a cloud of uncertainty. and the market does not like uncertainty.
So, the question is - how come we haven't seen any correction yet?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on July 16, 2017, 05:13:52 PM
I couldn't find any other relevant thread to post this in, so I'll use this one.
Here is something I've been wondering about lately:
Since around election date until now S&P gained almost 18% in less than 10 months (VTSAX gained a bit over 18%)
I've heard and read a lot of opinions that correlate this unusually high rate, to the expectation and optimism that the new administration will deliver on it's promise to lower the corporate tax drastically. That makes a lot of sense to me - less tax for corporations means more profits that can go to investing more in R&D thus producing better products and services, and being able to sell them in a lower price. all of those will produce even more profits.
Although at the beginning it seemed that the new administration is eager to deliver upon it's promises (Executive orders, etc...). De facto, 6 months in, it has achieved very little if anything and I haven't heard about any progress on the corporate tax front. Not only that, the new administration is under multiple investigations that (regardless of whether the accusations are true or not) makes it harder for the administration to concentrate and do it's job. All that been happening suggests that there is a cloud of uncertainty. and the market does not like uncertainty.
So, the question is - how come we haven't seen any correction yet?

For the moment at least S&P 500 profits have grown double digits the first and second quarter year over year. So there's optimism this will continue. Europe's economy is finally gaining traction, China hasn't had a deleveraging debt burden burst, and so worldwide demand is growing for products/services.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on July 16, 2017, 05:30:59 PM
Somehow I'm on this investment company's email list. I stay on it because it teaches me the mistakes of trying to predict the market.
Can you see the hidden gems here ?

"Stock Bull Market Still Intact!
 
We have been telling you that stocks are overvalued for over two years. We have also been telling you to expect volatility to return to the market. Stocks may have been overvalued but "Mr. Market" does not seem to care and volatility has been absent without leave (AWOL)! 

During 2016 and 2017 our best performing investment strategy has been Dividend Diamonds. This is because it is 100% invested in stocks and stocks just keep trending upward. Dividend Diamonds also benefits significantly from the rising dividend income produced by the 40 stocks in the portfolio. The dividend income has risen every year since we introduced the strategy at the end of 2009.

Owning Dividend Diamonds is still one of the best ways we know to get a "raise in pay" on a regular basis. The strategy has offered solid growth and rising income since we introduced it.

Back in 2010 and 2011 we were still reporting composite performance of all accounts we managed within a particular strategy. We were using Schwab Performance Technologies software to calculate those performance reports. According to our records, Dividend Diamonds total return for 2010 was 15.93%. In 2011 it was 4.44%. That was a year when many stock markets around the world were down double-digits for the year.

We have not reported composite performance since 2011. We now report performance to each account holder for their specific accounts using Orion Advisors Performance Report app. We use one account in the strategy as the "model account" and continuously rebalance all the other accounts to be as closely invested to the model as we can. Our Model Dividend Diamonds account has averaged 8.83% annual time weighted return from December 31, 2011 through July 14, 2017, net of all fees.

Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old. Our promise for this strategy has always been to "provide market like returns with significantly lower volatility than the S&P 500".

We feel like we have kept that promise, even though Mendocino significantly underperformed in 2015 and 2016. We kept the portfolio hedged and missed most of the upside in stocks during those year. We were hedged in anticipation of that volatility we were looking for.

The longer term performance for Mendocino is solid. For example, we have managed an account for one of our clients continuously from August 11, 1998 through July 14, 2017. The average annual time weighted return is 5.89% per annum, net of all management fees. The return for the S&P 500 is 6.50% per annum over those same 19 years (without any management fees).

One's first reaction might be to say, "I would have been better of investing in the S&P 500 index". That would be true if you had invested in a very low cost ETF and if you had the stomach to buy it and hold it through all the ups and downs; including multiple stock market crashes.

We are still looking for the investor who actually did that! We know many who tried, but got shaken out of the market by the violent moves up and down.

Mendocino's return was accomplished while rarely being more than 60% invested in stocks. It was accomplished with volatility that was far and away less than that of the overall stock market. We believe it has been a "sleep well at night" strategy.

This year-to-date that same managed account is up 6.75%, net of all management fees.

During 2017 we have taken a page out of the Dividend Diamonds playbook for Mendocino. That is, we are focusing more and more on stocks that offer rising dividends.

We have not moved entirely in that direction. We still want to own pure growth stocks in Mendocino. For example the #1 performer in the strategy since inception is Facebook (FB). Dividend Diamonds can't own Facebook because it doesn't pay a dividend.

We would like to achieve a balance of about 70% allocation to high yield and/or rising dividend stocks and 30% to pure growth stocks.

As of this writing we have about a 25% allocation to cash in the Mendocino strategy. We also have an allocation of about 9% to hedges that will protect on the downside if we do get a correction.

We are entering the season when they normally happen, if they are going to happen at all.

We think a correction might be approaching, bearing in mind that we have been wrong before. Frankly we hope it happens and will consider it to be a buying opportunity to get the rest of that cash to work and lift the hedges.

We are not bearish about stocks in any way at this time. We think that any correction of 5 to 7% will get bought in a hurry by managers and investors shopping for bargains. A correction of that magnitude will take most U.S. stock indexes back to their 200 day moving averages. They should be met there by a buying frenzy--if a correction happens at all.

As for "Sell in May and Go Away", Tom Bowley, of Stockcharts.com, wrote the following on his blog today:

I believe the true "go away" period is from the July 17 close to the September 27 close.  This period has been difficult and it begins at Monday's close.  Over the past 67 years on the S&P 500, this much shorter two month and ten day period has risen 37 times.  The average return during this 71 day period is -0.42%.  The annualized return has been -2.18%.  While that might not seem like much, it's actually more than 11 percentage points beneath the average annual return of approximately 9% that the S&P 500 has enjoyed since 1950.
Here is potentially the biggest problem.  When we've seen big moves on the S&P 500 from July 17th to September 27th in the past, they've generally been downside moves.  The S&P 500 has moved +/- 10% or more 11 times during this period since 1950 and 8 of those moves have been declines.  Here are the eight awful summers:
1957:  -12.41%
1966:  -10.31%
1974:  -22.31%
1981:  -13.86%
1990:  -18.11%
1998:  -11.97%
2001:  -16.13%
2011:  -10.69%
So clearly this is the time of summer - and the year - when the stock market has the tendency to underperform.  And from the above, you can see that the underperformance can be quite severe certain years.  While I believe the long-term viability of the current bull market is sound, we did break out to an S&P 500 all-time high close on Friday with a negative divergence present on the weekly chart - a sign of slowing upside momentum:

(http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001NT07jH7hRulm2aNcEHKz0W6mUeuSyg12yyIpf2rWBFoNGAH4qIc7TlcjXDNS5Ic1Og1E62Z8FieTDSii3P36f2rWvBWYDBhuLtODwgOES4wEhNUn_hr4W0HObFJ5hNhG5wMuE4i358FpxAU-LF1VaD8r2ogFdQWPMtPL9uPABHuL9CHCXdj54AhiiNLjUL1Jh_1P89IjlTHipModtBNLXODhHajIyvyjBwnMGNg-TGKUj71JgRwwzhFlD9osxVcfX1H6uIgDbkbgw2P54jm0knJhuUq7n84sNKichXUHrx1IN40mIiHVVxgqCrXOzzcntCnUb8I5V14Kz8tEbYAbqTQv5tkG15NAj6AZTKZhBSbzU-5Qy4jfoThUDd9hRhvZTVk4jtID64TGKI14H4fXzZpF7cmWo_MMdpLgNUHo-5CBe3I2HMWhUwfV0cD0476NICpc3c91rEYEownLCphK6a9JU3cwsONoktxXSOQmVbZBl4BSMvEyJ-ldoSYwGSNSZrbUXqIK8QyK3JKZxcYGXA==&c=G62STjGTa0N7e1HKBJ197U3qk0Kh8-a0RFoPgfiw1HQEOH173vqvUw==&ch=CW8Mn3opFkfHPaqaMSIfAt1KPAInTBq0LNnUk7KT_N5TozVMrHx5Uw)
==The last time we saw momentum slowing like this on the weekly chart was in 2015.  Shortly thereafter, the S&P 500 dropped from 2135 to 1870 in two months!  Perhaps it's a coincidence, but note that the highs were established in July 2015 and the ensuing weakness occurred in August and September - two notoriously bearish summer months that we're now approaching.
Will we see a repeat?  Stay tuned.....
If the correction happens Mendocino will be a buyer of the dip!

All the best,
 
PAUL KRSEK,
CEO
5TQ CAPITAL, LLC
595 Coombs Street, Napa, Ca, 94559
(707) 224-1340 Main
 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: WildJager on July 16, 2017, 06:06:26 PM
So, the question is - how come we haven't seen any correction yet?

I think this touches upon efficient market theory a bit.  The theory states that the market self regulates to all conditions, therefore the current market price is an accurate reflection of how businesses are performing.  However, this is only a theory, and in my opinion an inaccurate one.  The .com and housing bubbles showed that the market was severely overvalued for their respective reasons, however the market didn't react smoothly.  They were eras of "buy, buy, buy!" until suddenly the underlying problems were recognized, and then everyone clamored to sell before they got stuck holding the last worthless tulip.  Of course, the market eventually stabilized to a rational level and those who had the fortitude to stay in the market did quite well for themselves. 

On a long enough timeline the efficient market theory is perhaps accurate, but on the short term greed and complex investment vehicles muddy up the waters.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Le Barbu on July 16, 2017, 06:31:53 PM
Somehow I'm on this investment company's email list. I stay on it because it teaches me the mistakes of trying to predict the market.
Can you see the hidden gems here ?

"Stock Bull Market Still Intact!
 
We have been telling you that stocks are overvalued for over two years. We have also been telling you to expect volatility to return to the market. Stocks may have been overvalued but "Mr. Market" does not seem to care and volatility has been absent without leave (AWOL)! 

During 2016 and 2017 our best performing investment strategy has been Dividend Diamonds. This is because it is 100% invested in stocks and stocks just keep trending upward. Dividend Diamonds also benefits significantly from the rising dividend income produced by the 40 stocks in the portfolio. The dividend income has risen every year since we introduced the strategy at the end of 2009.

Owning Dividend Diamonds is still one of the best ways we know to get a "raise in pay" on a regular basis. The strategy has offered solid growth and rising income since we introduced it.

Back in 2010 and 2011 we were still reporting composite performance of all accounts we managed within a particular strategy. We were using Schwab Performance Technologies software to calculate those performance reports. According to our records, Dividend Diamonds total return for 2010 was 15.93%. In 2011 it was 4.44%. That was a year when many stock markets around the world were down double-digits for the year.

We have not reported composite performance since 2011. We now report performance to each account holder for their specific accounts using Orion Advisors Performance Report app. We use one account in the strategy as the "model account" and continuously rebalance all the other accounts to be as closely invested to the model as we can. Our Model Dividend Diamonds account has averaged 8.83% annual time weighted return from December 31, 2011 through July 14, 2017, net of all fees.

Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old. Our promise for this strategy has always been to "provide market like returns with significantly lower volatility than the S&P 500".

We feel like we have kept that promise, even though Mendocino significantly underperformed in 2015 and 2016. We kept the portfolio hedged and missed most of the upside in stocks during those year. We were hedged in anticipation of that volatility we were looking for.

The longer term performance for Mendocino is solid. For example, we have managed an account for one of our clients continuously from August 11, 1998 through July 14, 2017. The average annual time weighted return is 5.89% per annum, net of all management fees. The return for the S&P 500 is 6.50% per annum over those same 19 years (without any management fees).

One's first reaction might be to say, "I would have been better of investing in the S&P 500 index". That would be true if you had invested in a very low cost ETF and if you had the stomach to buy it and hold it through all the ups and downs; including multiple stock market crashes.

We are still looking for the investor who actually did that! We know many who tried, but got shaken out of the market by the violent moves up and down.

Mendocino's return was accomplished while rarely being more than 60% invested in stocks. It was accomplished with volatility that was far and away less than that of the overall stock market. We believe it has been a "sleep well at night" strategy.

This year-to-date that same managed account is up 6.75%, net of all management fees.

During 2017 we have taken a page out of the Dividend Diamonds playbook for Mendocino. That is, we are focusing more and more on stocks that offer rising dividends.

We have not moved entirely in that direction. We still want to own pure growth stocks in Mendocino. For example the #1 performer in the strategy since inception is Facebook (FB). Dividend Diamonds can't own Facebook because it doesn't pay a dividend.

We would like to achieve a balance of about 70% allocation to high yield and/or rising dividend stocks and 30% to pure growth stocks.

As of this writing we have about a 25% allocation to cash in the Mendocino strategy. We also have an allocation of about 9% to hedges that will protect on the downside if we do get a correction.

We are entering the season when they normally happen, if they are going to happen at all.

We think a correction might be approaching, bearing in mind that we have been wrong before. Frankly we hope it happens and will consider it to be a buying opportunity to get the rest of that cash to work and lift the hedges.

We are not bearish about stocks in any way at this time. We think that any correction of 5 to 7% will get bought in a hurry by managers and investors shopping for bargains. A correction of that magnitude will take most U.S. stock indexes back to their 200 day moving averages. They should be met there by a buying frenzy--if a correction happens at all.

As for "Sell in May and Go Away", Tom Bowley, of Stockcharts.com, wrote the following on his blog today:

I believe the true "go away" period is from the July 17 close to the September 27 close.  This period has been difficult and it begins at Monday's close.  Over the past 67 years on the S&P 500, this much shorter two month and ten day period has risen 37 times.  The average return during this 71 day period is -0.42%.  The annualized return has been -2.18%.  While that might not seem like much, it's actually more than 11 percentage points beneath the average annual return of approximately 9% that the S&P 500 has enjoyed since 1950.
Here is potentially the biggest problem.  When we've seen big moves on the S&P 500 from July 17th to September 27th in the past, they've generally been downside moves.  The S&P 500 has moved +/- 10% or more 11 times during this period since 1950 and 8 of those moves have been declines.  Here are the eight awful summers:
1957:  -12.41%
1966:  -10.31%
1974:  -22.31%
1981:  -13.86%
1990:  -18.11%
1998:  -11.97%
2001:  -16.13%
2011:  -10.69%
So clearly this is the time of summer - and the year - when the stock market has the tendency to underperform.  And from the above, you can see that the underperformance can be quite severe certain years.  While I believe the long-term viability of the current bull market is sound, we did break out to an S&P 500 all-time high close on Friday with a negative divergence present on the weekly chart - a sign of slowing upside momentum:

(http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001NT07jH7hRulm2aNcEHKz0W6mUeuSyg12yyIpf2rWBFoNGAH4qIc7TlcjXDNS5Ic1Og1E62Z8FieTDSii3P36f2rWvBWYDBhuLtODwgOES4wEhNUn_hr4W0HObFJ5hNhG5wMuE4i358FpxAU-LF1VaD8r2ogFdQWPMtPL9uPABHuL9CHCXdj54AhiiNLjUL1Jh_1P89IjlTHipModtBNLXODhHajIyvyjBwnMGNg-TGKUj71JgRwwzhFlD9osxVcfX1H6uIgDbkbgw2P54jm0knJhuUq7n84sNKichXUHrx1IN40mIiHVVxgqCrXOzzcntCnUb8I5V14Kz8tEbYAbqTQv5tkG15NAj6AZTKZhBSbzU-5Qy4jfoThUDd9hRhvZTVk4jtID64TGKI14H4fXzZpF7cmWo_MMdpLgNUHo-5CBe3I2HMWhUwfV0cD0476NICpc3c91rEYEownLCphK6a9JU3cwsONoktxXSOQmVbZBl4BSMvEyJ-ldoSYwGSNSZrbUXqIK8QyK3JKZxcYGXA==&c=G62STjGTa0N7e1HKBJ197U3qk0Kh8-a0RFoPgfiw1HQEOH173vqvUw==&ch=CW8Mn3opFkfHPaqaMSIfAt1KPAInTBq0LNnUk7KT_N5TozVMrHx5Uw)
==The last time we saw momentum slowing like this on the weekly chart was in 2015.  Shortly thereafter, the S&P 500 dropped from 2135 to 1870 in two months!  Perhaps it's a coincidence, but note that the highs were established in July 2015 and the ensuing weakness occurred in August and September - two notoriously bearish summer months that we're now approaching.
Will we see a repeat?  Stay tuned.....
If the correction happens Mendocino will be a buyer of the dip!

All the best,
 
PAUL KRSEK,
CEO
5TQ CAPITAL, LLC
595 Coombs Street, Napa, Ca, 94559
(707) 224-1340 Main

And people still let these fools manage their hard earned money?!?!?!

Just tell us it's a prank! Please!

This letter actualy say they are not competent nor lucky, most of the time and a plain low cost index funds would have been better than their strategy by 25% over the last 20 years! On top of that, they keep trying to time the market and sit on pile of cash!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on July 17, 2017, 11:42:17 PM
Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old.

Ha, I grew up in Mendocino County, which is not very far from Napa County where these guys are from.  Any idea why they call it the Mendocino strategy?

As far as i can tell, the real Mendocino strategy is 1) Grow lots of weed. 2) Sell it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on July 18, 2017, 01:25:40 AM
Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old.

Ha, I grew up in Mendocino County, which is not very far from Napa County where these guys are from.  Any idea why they call it the Mendocino strategy?

As far as i can tell, the real Mendocino strategy is 1) Grow lots of weed. 2) Sell it.

This sounds like a good ER plan. My wife has an aversion to drugs though. Still you can't let women hold you back.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on July 18, 2017, 07:16:00 AM
Our Mendocino strategy is now 19 years old.

Ha, I grew up in Mendocino County, which is not very far from Napa County where these guys are from.  Any idea why they call it the Mendocino strategy?

As far as i can tell, the real Mendocino strategy is 1) Grow lots of weed. 2) Sell it.

This sounds like a good ER plan. My wife has an aversion to drugs though. Still you can't let women hold you back.

That's just, like, her opinion man.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on July 18, 2017, 10:09:13 AM
And people still let these fools manage their hard earned money?!?!?!

Just tell us it's a prank! Please!

This letter actualy say they are not competent nor lucky, most of the time and a plain low cost index funds would have been better than their strategy by 25% over the last 20 years! On top of that, they keep trying to time the market and sit on pile of cash!!

That's a bizarre correspondence to actually read. "Hey, we're not very good at this. But we're confident we'll do better this next time!" Like 4 or 5 times they said they missed it and under-performed, and that their fees weren't worth it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on July 19, 2017, 09:02:46 AM
New top today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 19, 2017, 09:44:15 AM
New top today.

Yes, but when will it be "in"? (i.e. the market goes down substantially from here and stays below this top for an extended period of time)

I turns out predicting that is hard :(
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on July 19, 2017, 10:03:52 AM
New top today.

Yes, but when will it be "in"? (i.e. the market goes down substantially from here and stays below this top for an extended period of time)

I turns out predicting that is hard :(

Naw, pr'dictin's easy. I pr'dict today. Y'all be eatin' them purty little words later!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on July 19, 2017, 11:09:07 AM
As a philosophical exercise, how far off does a "top" prediction need to be before it's just plain wrong? Since the March peak that started this thread as the supposed top, the S&P has gone up 4.47% according to Google Finance. In comparison to a typical bear market drop of ~25% (annualized), or the much-touted average S&P returns of 10%, I'd say being off by almost 5% is significant, and I'm confident stating that the OP was wrong.

However, if the market only went up another 1% after such a claim, the claimant could defend their assertion as being "close enough".

So, what do you think? How close would someone have to be? Is it a valuation thing, or a time thing? Or is it more black and white to you - if they didn't get it exactly right, it's exactly wrong?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on July 19, 2017, 11:20:49 AM


However, if the market only went up another 1% after such a claim, the claimant could defend their assertion as being "close enough".


Yes, stock market gurus are annoying that way.

If the market doubles, pays out loads of dividends then crashes back to below where it is now over the next 5 years, they'll still come out of the woodwork claiming they were right.

They are quite a dishonourable bunch.  Aiming to deceive and mislead the naive.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dreadmoose on July 19, 2017, 11:28:03 AM
So, what do you think? How close would someone have to be? Is it a valuation thing, or a time thing? Or is it more black and white to you - if they didn't get it exactly right, it's exactly wrong?

This is why I always want the prediction that the OP makes to include an action, if it's stated that someone should get out of the market then back in at a certain threshold then it's easy to compare it.

I believe this is why noone learns any lessons from this, we're incredible at justifying our own plans no matter how far off they are. I find this most often when people sell a house and talk only about the final sale price minus the initial buy price (ignoring commissions, mortgage interest paid, let alone opportunity cost).

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on July 19, 2017, 01:23:48 PM
I believe this is why noone learns any lessons from this, we're incredible at justifying our own plans no matter how far off they are. I find this most often when people sell a house and talk only about the final sale price minus the initial buy price (ignoring commissions, mortgage interest paid, let alone opportunity cost).

Same as a addicted gambler will tell you that they won $300 but won't tell you they lost $2000 the day before. 

DavidAnnArbor  -->  That newletter--seriously?!  >:(   "Here's why we didn't do as well and all the complicated reasons you should keep trusting us."  Man...  At least they state, "bearing in mind that we have been wrong before".  That's where anyone with a brain should just stop reading.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on July 19, 2017, 01:53:34 PM
I believe this is why noone learns any lessons from this, we're incredible at justifying our own plans no matter how far off they are. I find this most often when people sell a house and talk only about the final sale price minus the initial buy price (ignoring commissions, mortgage interest paid, let alone opportunity cost).

Same as a addicted gambler will tell you that they won $300 but won't tell you they lost $2000 the day before. 

DavidAnnArbor  -->  That newletter--seriously?!  >:(   "Here's why we didn't do as well and all the complicated reasons you should keep trusting us."  Man...  At least they state, "bearing in mind that we have been wrong before".  That's where anyone with a brain should just stop reading.

Reminds me of this scene from the Wolf of Wall Street:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM6exo00T5I

"Name of the game - move the money from your client's pocket, into your pocket".
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on July 19, 2017, 02:02:34 PM
I got on that newsletter back in 2009 in the depths of the market crash. I heard about this money management company that did really well invested in gold. I questioned my passive index market strategy. In the end I didn't change anything, I just continued to buy more stock market index funds.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: v8rx7guy on July 19, 2017, 02:40:44 PM
S&P is approaching 2,500
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on July 20, 2017, 01:26:31 AM
S&P is approaching 2,500

Only part way through earnings and so far they look pretty good.. I could see us hitting 2500 this earnings season... (famous last words..:)..)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cache_Stash on July 20, 2017, 05:14:38 AM
As a philosophical exercise, how far off does a "top" prediction need to be before it's just plain wrong? Since the March peak that started this thread as the supposed top, the S&P has gone up 4.47% according to Google Finance. In comparison to a typical bear market drop of ~25% (annualized), or the much-touted average S&P returns of 10%, I'd say being off by almost 5% is significant, and I'm confident stating that the OP was wrong.

However, if the market only went up another 1% after such a claim, the claimant could defend their assertion as being "close enough".

So, what do you think? How close would someone have to be? Is it a valuation thing, or a time thing? Or is it more black and white to you - if they didn't get it exactly right, it's exactly wrong?

There is no right or wrong.  Just lucky or unlucky.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on July 24, 2017, 06:21:15 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investor-makes-mammoth-vix-bet-that-could-pay-out-265-million-1500917145
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 24, 2017, 08:19:14 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investor-makes-mammoth-vix-bet-that-could-pay-out-265-million-1500917145
Damn, thorstach! I'm impressed. You're really putting your money where your mouth is!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on July 24, 2017, 10:23:59 PM
Republican congress won't be able to pass a federal budget nor raise the debt limit. What a surprise volatility is going to rise.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on July 24, 2017, 11:05:41 PM
Republican congress won't be able to pass a federal budget nor raise the debt limit. What a surprise volatility is going to rise.

I don't keep up with current events, but seriously?  Don't they have control of both houses and the white house?  What are they, the Keystone Cops of government?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on July 25, 2017, 08:19:11 AM
Wait, is today the new top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 25, 2017, 08:20:09 AM
Republican congress won't be able to pass a federal budget nor raise the debt limit. What a surprise volatility is going to rise.

I don't keep up with current events, but seriously?  Don't they have control of both houses and the white house?  What are they, the Keystone Cops of government?

When you have a slim majority, no opposition support and half of your conference is batshit crazy, it's hard to get things done.

Wait, is today the new top?

I think so... dammit. When is top in? This thread is never going to end if the top isn't in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on July 25, 2017, 10:13:34 AM
Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

I'm beginning to think that's what's going on - his secret superpower is to drive the stock market in the opposite direction, so whenever it's looking like fear is winning over greed, he publicly states that it's all downhill from here, and the market subsequently goes up! He must be the superhero that advised Bruce Wayne and Professor Xavier. Use your powers for good, thorstach!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrStash on July 25, 2017, 01:00:07 PM
I literally can't believe this thread is still going. lol
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 25, 2017, 02:33:49 PM
It's really pretty uncanny.  After weeks or months of silence, OP repeats his "the top is in" call and within 48 hours the market spikes.

Call it again, thorstach.  Daddy needs a new pair of shoes.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on July 25, 2017, 07:41:47 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1t2tl6.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1t2tl6) (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

Thanks for keeping this going long enough for me to use my meme, which I thought of way back when the last Gladiator meme was posted.

oohooh made it better
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrStash on July 26, 2017, 09:27:29 AM
On that note, top is in again today and I have a confession to make. It's a little off topic but it just feels right here.

On June 6th I came into a landfall when we sold our old house. Bought the new house with a super low % VA loan with nothing down and we figured we'd invest the equity from the old house. All is well, all principles are intact. We had 60k designated as investments. So there I sit, the stock genius that I am, wondering what to do. Surely, the pork chop to canned fat ratio is just too high right now. I'll wait. I'll wait some more. Well, since I've been waiting the S&P500 increased 1.77% which on 60k would be a $1062 gain.

So in honor of the thousand dollars I lost by analyzing the pork chop to canned fat ratio for two months, I decided that I'm punching the 60k in this week. Yay me.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 27, 2017, 09:34:45 AM
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 27, 2017, 10:17:17 AM
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

(https://i.imgflip.com/101lwn.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 27, 2017, 10:22:59 AM
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

I don't think it works unless thorstach does it.  I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on July 27, 2017, 10:23:21 AM
You get a new top! And you get a new top! Every day gets a new top!

(http://pyjamapeople.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/xzOM5m.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cookie78 on July 27, 2017, 10:27:57 AM
(https://img.4plebs.org/boards/tg/image/1483/18/1483188712415.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on July 27, 2017, 10:50:11 AM
Since I'm feeling nitpicky, the top has been in 3 times this month already.  Solon was right on the 19th since we had a bear market for the rest of the week. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 27, 2017, 10:55:22 AM
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

I don't think it works unless thorstach does it.  I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Damn, I think you're right. I totally jinxed it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on July 27, 2017, 11:00:59 AM
Let's back test this. 

Day this thread was started:

S&P 500 April 11th - $2357

S&P 500 Today - $2473
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 27, 2017, 11:02:57 AM
Well guys, I'm afraid top might be in today.

I don't think it works unless thorstach does it.  I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Damn, I think you're right. I totally jinxed it.

(https://i.imgflip.com/xi8cf.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 27, 2017, 11:03:50 AM
^^^ Sorry, NSFW.  Bear junk for the imminent bear market.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on July 27, 2017, 11:15:13 AM
Maybe I should sell everything.. Man would I have lived to have called it in 2008.. And when to get back in 2009 of course :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on July 27, 2017, 11:25:59 AM
Ok Thorstach...was today the top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on July 27, 2017, 11:28:51 AM
I think so. Market is tanking now so that MUST have been it..;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: slow hand slow plan on July 27, 2017, 01:00:25 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on July 27, 2017, 01:14:46 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

Quote
Assuming I am talking to mostly value folks here, let me ask the question: How long are you going to have to wait? Possibly a while. We could be having this conversation a year from now, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49%  at 2,900, my “top” call left in the dust.

...from ^^ the link.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on July 27, 2017, 01:20:48 PM
And here comes the S&P close below the 50 day average with VIX at 16.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062080-passive-investing-will-make-next-correction-worse

"Thesis: The passive investing shift presents risks to investors as many are less likely to receive any advice prior to selling during the next severe correction. Psychology tells us that investors will always fear losses and react to market downturns. The shift into passive assets will exacerbate the next downturn, not alleviate it."

The S&P 500 has increased 5% since this post.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: slow hand slow plan on July 27, 2017, 01:43:08 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-the-stock-market-rises-things-get-a-little-more-absurd-2017-07-26?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo


The top is has been in for weeks... Thorstach is writing for Market Watch apparently

Quote
Assuming I am talking to mostly value folks here, let me ask the question: How long are you going to have to wait? Possibly a while. We could be having this conversation a year from now, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49%  at 2,900, my “top” call left in the dust.

...from ^^ the link.

Well at I am glad Thor can admit he is wrong ...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aboatguy on July 27, 2017, 03:47:14 PM
(http://dontcrybaby.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GlennBeckDances4DGDO_720.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on July 27, 2017, 07:27:57 PM


(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2017/04/24/Photos/NS/MW-FL044_xlkNSJ_20170424115102_NS.jpg)

The tech sector has provided more than 40% of the  S&P  500's advance
Throughout 2017, there's one acronym that investors have in particular been sinking their teeth into: FAANG.
The term stands for a quintet of the market's most pronounced highfliers:  Facebook Inc.  (FB),  Apple Inc.  (AAPL),  Amazon.com Inc.  (AMZN),  Netflix Inc.  (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL), the parent company of  Google . Together they've accounted for a huge amount of the overall market's advance, something that could leave major indexes vulnerable in the event the group turns lower.
Based on their Wednesday close, the FAANG stocks have accounted for more than a quarter of the  S&P  500's total year-to-date return (28.4%, to be exact), according to  Howard Silverblatt , senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. That calculation doesn't include the sharp decline that several of the stocks underwent on Thursday.
Each of the five stocks is up sharply thus far this year, posting gains that range from about 20% to nearly 50%. Furthermore, four of the five are among the five largest stocks in the U.S. equity market, meaning they have an outsize weight on broader moves. Together, they account for more than 10% of the  S&P  500 by market capitalization.
The benchmark  S&P  500 is up 10.6% thus far this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index , where all of the FAANG stocks trade, has climbed 18.6%. The Nasdaq -100 , which has an even more concentrated holding of the group, is up nearly 22%.
Overall, the information-technology sector has accounted for 41.6% of the  S&P  500's total return this year, per Silverblatt's data, by far the most of any group. The tech sector (XLK) itself is up 18.9%, while the consumer-discretionary sector (XLY)--where  Amazon  and  Netflix  are classified, despite their connection to the tech industry (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-you-buy-a-tech-etf-to-cash-in-on-amazon-heres-some-bad-news-2017-06-16)--is up 13.1%.
The gains in these large-cap names have raised concerns about their valuation (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-internet-stocks-hit-records-familiar-questions-about-bubbles-arise-2017-05-22), with analysts noting similarities between the current market environment and the dot-com era (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-continue-to-mirror-the-dot-com-era-in-ominous-ways-2017-06-15), when there was a bubble in tech names that, when it burst, took down the broader market.
Related:Will tech rally continue? Hedge funds say yes, but mutual funds say no (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-tech-rally-continue-hedge-funds-say-yes-but-mutual-funds-say-no-2017-06-05)
Earlier this year, the largest exchange-traded fund to track the tech sector hit an all-time high on a total-return basis (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-17-years-sp-500-tech-sector-finally-regains-lost-ground-2017-04-24), recovering the ground it lost in the wake of the dot-com era.
On Thursday, an abrupt selloff in tech shares pressured the FAANG names (except for  Facebook , which stayed higher in the wake of better-than-expected quarterly results (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2017/07/26/facebook-earnings-put-instagram-in-focus-amid-shift-in-newsfeed-ads-live-blog/)), which in turn weighed on the overall market, pressuring the broader market and dragging the  S&P  500 and Nasdaq to a close in negative territory (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-stocks-poised-to-drive-another-record-day-on-wall-street-led-by-facebook-2017-07-27).
- Ryan Vlastelica ; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
 07-27-17   1722ET
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on July 27, 2017, 07:30:54 PM
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on July 27, 2017, 08:16:22 PM
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.
(http://davidwilliamsviolinist.info/mysongs/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/hallelujah-003-1024x768.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on July 27, 2017, 08:38:14 PM
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.

This time for real though.
Seriously.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on July 27, 2017, 08:43:21 PM
For those keeping score:


April 11, 2017 "The Top is in."  (S&P 500 closes at 2,353.78)

107 days later...

July 27, 2017 "The Top is in."  (S&P 500 closes at 2,475.42)




Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on July 27, 2017, 09:58:35 PM
Oh and /ES futures down 1%, gapping down tomorrow, top is in.
(http://davidwilliamsviolinist.info/mysongs/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/hallelujah-003-1024x768.jpg)

Best.  Thread.  Ever. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on July 27, 2017, 11:59:27 PM
GIF Version
(https://media.giphy.com/media/ONs5F0yZOtNcY/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on July 28, 2017, 01:17:47 PM
Good evening all, is top in yet? Thorstach said it would be.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on July 28, 2017, 01:41:23 PM
Good evening all, is top in yet? Thorstach said it would be.

Haven't you been paying attention?!?! It's been in for over a day now!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on July 28, 2017, 01:44:34 PM
One of these days he's going to be right, by pure random chance, and you're all going to eat crow.

Keep swinging, thorstach, you're bound to connect eventually.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on July 28, 2017, 07:04:28 PM
I'm going to start making my own predictions, and I predict I will be right many more times than Thorstach.

My prediction:  Thorstach will say that the top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on July 31, 2017, 10:25:31 AM
The top will be in September 19 at 2:02 EDT. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on August 01, 2017, 08:41:28 AM
DJIA needs a slight pullback followed by a further mistimed Thorstach "top is in" call, then onwards and upward beyond 22,000.  Not that it matters at all!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on August 02, 2017, 07:49:11 AM
Top Ver 4.0 is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: runewell on August 02, 2017, 07:56:09 AM
The top will be in September 19 at 2:02 EDT.

Or was that the solar eclipse, I keep forgetting...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: powskier on August 02, 2017, 08:27:36 PM
I've been buying all the tops for a while, and it's been working out for me.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 02, 2017, 10:13:39 PM
Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

Call it again, thorstach!

Either Thorstach can't call the top, or thousands of mustachians are pouring dump truck loads of money into index funds out of spite every time he calls a top.  Maybe a bit of both :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on August 03, 2017, 12:21:40 AM
GIF Version
(https://media.giphy.com/media/ONs5F0yZOtNcY/giphy.gif)

OK that was awesome.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: gluskap on August 03, 2017, 05:13:33 PM
This thread is in!  OMG so entertaining.  My prediction the Top is never in if you're buy and hold like me.  It just keeps going up and up as long as your timeframe is long term.  Every time I get scared that maybe my strategy is too simple I just need to go back to this thread and I'll feel better knowing that the low fee index fund buy and hold strategy is still the best.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on August 04, 2017, 09:37:14 AM
My new top came in today.  [GROANS.]
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on August 04, 2017, 10:36:09 AM
(http://i.imgur.com/iaJO3DL.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on August 04, 2017, 11:08:40 AM
This thread is in!  OMG so entertaining.  My prediction the Top is never in if you're buy and hold like me.  It just keeps going up and up as long as your timeframe is long term.  Every time I get scared that maybe my strategy is too simple I just need to go back to this thread and I'll feel better knowing that the low fee index fund buy and hold strategy is still the best.

The top WILL be in when the Vogons arrive. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on August 04, 2017, 11:45:03 AM
The top WILL be in when the Vogons arrive.

And they will bring poetry, such as this Ode to Tops:

See, see the old sky
Marvel at its big puce depths.
Tell me, top do you
Wonder why the fartknocker ignores you?
Why its foobly stare
makes you feel slothlike.
I can tell you, it is
Worried by your shimateeboob facial growth
That looks like
A mold
What's more, it knows
Your torque potting shed
Smells of booger.
Everything under the big old sky
Asks why, why do I even bother?
You only charm buttstench.




courtesy of:
http://tonybaldwin.me/pages/vogon.php
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on August 04, 2017, 06:54:26 PM

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 04, 2017, 08:00:29 PM

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

The problem is you can't tell whether we are like the year 1996 or March 2000. Trying to time the market is impossible and there's nothing anyone can do based on the information you provided.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on August 04, 2017, 08:08:04 PM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Le Barbu on August 04, 2017, 09:13:00 PM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Maybe he was planning to retire quietly according to the 4% rule and got enligthed by Runewell's posts?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on August 04, 2017, 10:24:59 PM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: respond2u on August 04, 2017, 11:05:36 PM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on August 05, 2017, 01:57:12 AM

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on August 05, 2017, 02:30:38 AM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

I don't think bonds are going to tank though. They could go down but they won't tank. Also if stocks do tank you'd expect bonds to go up.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 05, 2017, 07:11:03 AM

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Meditation and affirmations are good antidotes to this kind of stress.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on August 05, 2017, 07:34:03 AM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Yep. If you are worried about stocks tanking buy less of them and more bonds. Simple.

Buy bonds simple? Not sure about that (if you believe Greenspawn).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-10/greenspan-be-afraid-of-pending-bubble-in-bond-market

I don't think bonds are going to tank though. They could go down but they won't tank. Also if stocks do tank you'd expect bonds to go up.

10 year Treasuries are yielding slightly less than a 5 year CD (FDIC insured) at Synchrony, or Barclays, or Ally, or Goldman Sachs, or Discover bank.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Riff on August 05, 2017, 08:22:52 AM
(http://voninsphotography.com/personal/top.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: With This Herring on August 05, 2017, 10:51:39 AM
I interpret Shiller's statement as him being worried about how a potential large market crash would affect regular investors and regular workers, not his personal finances.  I would guess that he has his personal finances set comfortably.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on August 05, 2017, 11:04:14 AM
(http://playschooleducation.co.nz/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/tip-top-tour.jpg)

It's all about the top. The tip top! Cheers to many many many many more tops. :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wenchsenior on August 05, 2017, 02:31:28 PM

https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Just goes to show that money doesn't make you happy.  Like most financial types, this guys brain has been poisoned by money.

He probably has enough that he could be 100% cash and have 100% success rate, but instead is worrying that he might go from super rich to slightly less super rich.  Depressing.

Schiller has  been bellyaching about the the equity 'bubble' for at least 3 or 4 years.  It might even be longer than that (time tends to get away from me).  I just heard him as a guest on On Point, and I was cracking up because he was saying identical things to the last time I heard him as a guest on On Point, quite a few years ago.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on August 05, 2017, 02:51:40 PM
Schiller has  been bellyaching about the the equity 'bubble' for at least 3 or 4 years.  It might even be longer than that (time tends to get away from me).  I just heard him as a guest on On Point, and I was cracking up because he was saying identical things to the last time I heard him as a guest on On Point, quite a few years ago.

That's how you become a market expert. Say the same dramatic stuff again and again until one day you are right....then milk that shit for a decade. ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: UnleashHell on August 06, 2017, 06:23:10 AM
(http://www.goldenbakeryandpizza.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/unlimited-toppings-banner.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on August 06, 2017, 02:15:19 PM
for those of you eagerly waiting to benefit from my wisdom:

the market breadth (usa) has narrowed since the beginning of 2017, but we still have time. hang seng on the other hand is on relatively shaky grounds. note that the usd may continue to weaken, resulting in lower "real" return even if the market rallies further, especially if you hold mostly unhedged index funds in another currency.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on August 07, 2017, 03:06:23 PM
Dow has 9 straight days of gains:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/07/investing/markets-dow-winning-streak/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/07/investing/markets-dow-winning-streak/index.html)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: afuera on August 08, 2017, 09:13:01 AM
New Top!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on August 08, 2017, 10:07:21 AM
New Top!!

Whoop.. extra glass of wine with dinner tonight :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on August 08, 2017, 10:13:03 AM
Where is thorstach?  Surely there's a crossing golden X or an inflection in the VIX/P/E mean-to-sigma ratio, or maybe an ascending triangle bouncing off a bump and run reversal.

He's been quiet long enough to have found any and all forms of chartist bullshit in the tea leaves by now.  Meanwhile, I'm up approximately 11% YTD, before dividends or contributions, just by ignoring him.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on August 08, 2017, 10:21:39 AM
Where is thorstach?  Surely there's a crossing golden X or an inflection in the VIX/P/E mean-to-sigma ratio, or maybe an ascending triangle bouncing off a bump and run reversal.

He's been quiet long enough to have found any and all forms of chartist bullshit in the tea leaves by now.  Meanwhile, I'm up approximately 11% YTD, before dividends or contributions, just by ignoring him.

He posted in this thread on august 4th, that's not too far back. Same doom and gloom though.


https://latest.13d.com/toxic-mix-of-low-volatility-passive-strategies-and-high-leverage-is-reason-for-caution-us-equities-5e92ba0f5fc1


Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 10 on only 21 days, 13 of which have been in the past two months. The current streak of 270-plus days without a 5% drawdown in any of the major U.S. indices is the longest since 1996. Meanwhile, U.S. equity values continue to diverge from earnings — Schiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) has only been higher two times in market history: 1929 and 2000.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: brooklynguy on August 08, 2017, 10:44:57 AM
Where is thorstach?

You have to wait for his next materialization, which follows a rigid schedule dictated by the properties of the chrono-synclastic infundibulum he entered before starting this thread.  Presumably, the messages he carries, which might appear to be bunk from our current perspective, will make sense to us once enough of the future has become the past in our own linear time scale.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on August 08, 2017, 11:01:21 AM
(http://www.goldenbakeryandpizza.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/unlimited-toppings-banner.jpg)

Nice!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 08, 2017, 11:35:36 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/well-never-stop-hearing-people-say-stock-market-bubble-151740402.html

Quote
But in a world in which “The Big Short” is nominated for Oscars and everyone wants to say they too saw that trade coming, saying that we’re probably not going to see a market crash anytime soon can range from coming off naïve, to uncool, to downright ignorant depending on the critic.

And either way, it’s simply not as good of a story.

Which is why we’ll never stop hearing proposed answers to the question of whether this is the top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on August 08, 2017, 11:46:19 AM
And the sad realization is that all of those people duped into the "we saw it coming" mindset will end up likely missing out on massive gains. They probably already have, actually.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on August 08, 2017, 12:59:57 PM
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.”

If the bolded text is true than he needs to revisit his asset allocation and investment plan. That sort of stress is pointless and damaging to your health.

Maybe he was planning to retire quietly according to the 4% rule and got enligthed by Runewell's posts?

You made me smile with this one. Well played sir.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GenXbiker on August 08, 2017, 01:54:12 PM
The Dow has fallen off after hitting a new high earlier.   Is the top in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on August 08, 2017, 02:00:11 PM
I have very much enjoyed this thread. The fact that the market has hit new high after new high after new high after new high after new high after new high has simply made it that much more humorous. It certainly serves as a fantastic example of why market timing is bad.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on August 08, 2017, 02:38:40 PM
I'm showing SPY red and top still in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 08, 2017, 02:41:15 PM
I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

Trollers gonna troll.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on August 08, 2017, 02:45:14 PM
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4333/36313716731_fc6d086e9b_z.jpg)

You can't just accept it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on August 08, 2017, 03:13:45 PM
I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

By my count, SPY has put in ten new tops over the past 30 days.

So one third of trading days are new tops, and the other two thirds of days are immediately after a new top, so the top is in each of those days too?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on August 08, 2017, 04:57:03 PM
I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

I am confused now.  Which top is still in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: rob in cal on August 08, 2017, 11:53:17 PM
  I still remember back a few years when the dow was at about 13,000 thinking it was too high and a correction like in 2008 was on the way.  then when it was at 17,000 I was sure it was close to a top.  Fortunately ( I think) I didn't stop putting money into the market in spite of my cogent market analysis.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on August 09, 2017, 03:00:32 AM
North Korea vs Donald Trump = Top is Definitely in.

This is a leading indicator called the psychopathic dictator death cross and usually means a 37% market decline is imminent.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on August 09, 2017, 06:42:30 AM
North Korea vs Donald Trump = Top is Definitely in.

This is a leading indicator called the psychopathic dictator death cross and usually means a 37% market decline is imminent.
You know, if we go the way that Alderaan did, the top is definitely in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on August 09, 2017, 07:00:04 AM
Alderaan is peaceful, we have no weapons of any kind.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on August 09, 2017, 07:08:35 AM
I'm going to start making my own predictions, and I predict I will be right many more times than Thorstach.

My prediction:  Thorstach will say that the top is in.

I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

If only I could predict the market as easily as I can predict market timers.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on August 09, 2017, 07:26:53 AM
I predict the goon in Chief will say something stupid.. again!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on August 09, 2017, 09:39:11 AM
I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on August 09, 2017, 10:56:58 AM
North Korea vs Donald Trump = Top is Definitely in.

This is a leading indicator called the psychopathic dictator death cross and usually means a 37% market decline is imminent.
You know, if we go the way that Alderaan did, the top is definitely in.

You just need more diversification.  Are there any low cost inter-planetary mutual funds out there?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on August 09, 2017, 05:02:30 PM
I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

There are a couple of points here. There are signs but there are always signs. Just because someone predicted something right at a certain point in time that doesn't mean that he always gets those types of predictions right. It could just be luck. Yes they are smart and yes they were right but how many times have they been wrong.

I think it's best to look at really really out of whack scenarios but even then you have to be careful.

A good book to read is the book regarding long term capital managements failure. These guys were brilliant. They saw a gap in the market and made money for a long time. They also lost it all.

I think you need to be really really careful when it comes to predicting the markets. A healthy dose of humility can do a lot for you.

I actually trade foreign currencies but I trade an account with about $1000 in it. My last trade was at least a year ago and I got it so wrong. The market is now coming back and I have a profit on that position (short USD). Picking markets consistently is a mugs game. You see things that aren't there. It's all about timing as well. You get the timing wrong and you can really stuff yourself.

When it comes to investing over the really long term and utilising a rational asset allocation and being humble you can come out miles ahead. My parents have a lot of money and they've paid massive dollars to financial advisors who are hopeless. They've just had time in the market on their side.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 10, 2017, 07:45:34 AM
Is it possible the 8/8 call of the top will turn out to be correct?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 10, 2017, 08:12:51 AM
LOL, anything is possible.  A couple down days in a row is nothing, I'll bet markets are at a new top by sometime next week.  And if I'm wrong, I was wrong once, thorstach on the other hand...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 10, 2017, 08:27:32 AM
LOL, anything is possible.  A couple down days in a row is nothing, I'll bet markets are at a new top by sometime next week.  And if I'm wrong, I was wrong once, thorstach on the other hand...

Headlines seem to indicate it's based on this North Korea/Trump spat, but who knows.  PPI was weaker than expected, CPI out tomorrow.  Job market is strong, GDP growth is OK, not great.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 10, 2017, 09:51:52 AM
LOL, anything is possible.  A couple down days in a row is nothing, I'll bet markets are at a new top by sometime next week.  And if I'm wrong, I was wrong once, thorstach on the other hand...

Headlines seem to indicate it's based on this North Korea/Trump spat, but who knows.  PPI was weaker than expected, CPI out tomorrow.  Job market is strong, GDP growth is OK, not great.  We'll see.

Only way that materializes into a market correction is if there's actually a conflict started.  N Korea doesn't want this.  The US doesn't want this.  Hopefully the GOP finds a way to shut Trumps big stupid mouth so we can keep living our lives in peace.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on August 10, 2017, 02:22:43 PM
Is it possible the 8/8 call of the top will turn out to be correct?

I think the highest call will be the correct one.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: afuera on August 10, 2017, 03:10:32 PM
Is it possible the 8/8 call of the top will turn out to be correct?

I successfully called the top. I am the new mega-investor genius. Please everyone disregard* thorstache and only listen to me for all your future investing decisions.

Bonus free mega-genius investor advice for today: Stocks are on sale, buy them :). You are welcome, plebs.

*also disregard the fact that all I did was look at S&P, notice it was the highest its ever been (for that 30min period at least) and then say it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on August 17, 2017, 01:58:05 PM
Top is in guys. Of course I FIRE (tomorrow) a day after the top is in.

Damn top being in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on August 17, 2017, 07:42:53 PM
I'm showing SPY red and top still in.

I am confused now.  Which top is still in?

I have started to wonder if it's a BDSM thing, isn't topping a term used there? The top being 'in' at this frequency would thereby be explained.

The stock market explanation has worn SO thin at this point....
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on August 18, 2017, 02:46:25 AM
I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on August 18, 2017, 10:50:56 AM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on August 18, 2017, 01:43:51 PM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

Well, you could listen to this guy...

Lance Roberts
Long/short equity, investment advisor, portfolio strategy, macro

Technically Speaking: Maybe You Should 'Sell In May'
May 18, 2016

Breaking Markets - The Bear Awakens
Jan. 18, 2016

Breaking Markets - Sell Signals Flash
Jan. 10, 2016

So Goes January, So Goes The Year
Jan. 5, 2016

Previous Warnings Come To Fruition
Aug. 25, 2015

The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
Apr. 30, 2015

Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History
Apr. 28, 2015

...Or not.  I think I'll stick to ummm... Not.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: smedleyb on August 18, 2017, 02:05:01 PM
I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

Trump repeatedly referencing the record high stock market as some kind of validation of his presidency was always going to end badly.  Even Obama was never that foolish to make the connection, and he bought the market at the low and watched it triple.  Trump is buying in at the high, and gloating about it.  Quick 15% haircut immanent, IMO. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on August 18, 2017, 02:49:22 PM
I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

Trump repeatedly referencing the record high stock market as some kind of validation of his presidency was always going to end badly.  Even Obama was never that foolish to make the connection, and he bought the market at the low and watched it triple.  Trump is buying in at the high, and gloating about it.  Quick 15% haircut immanent, IMO.

I actually think the rich/educated republicans sticking with trump will ditch him in a heartbeat if his shenanigans cause a 20%+ drop in the market. Right now they're all praying that some corporate tax cut will still come to fruition even though that's looking less and less likely.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on August 18, 2017, 04:23:08 PM
Sad thing is the top probably is in now.. but pullback are healthy so nothing to see here.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on August 18, 2017, 05:04:33 PM
So, what's it mean if the top is "out?" 

Is it like the hokey-pokey?  You put the left one in, you put the right one out...   ?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on August 18, 2017, 05:26:40 PM
Sad thing is the top probably is in now.. but pullback are healthy so nothing to see here.

Every "top" is only temporary.  The market always goes up, even if there's occasional dips.  But I know that you already know this :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on August 18, 2017, 07:41:10 PM
Sad thing is the top probably is in now.. but pullback are healthy so nothing to see here.

If we have a really good crash, I'll get off my arse and do something more useful with all this home equity...

:D
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: powskier on August 18, 2017, 09:06:11 PM
See? there was a pullback, so it WAS the top. Quick, sell everything before everyone else does and then wait for the bottom.

The bottom will be announced in the "The bottom is in" thread.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JohnSteed on August 18, 2017, 10:14:27 PM
I have very much enjoyed this thread. The fact that the market has hit new high after new high after new high after new high after new high after new high has simply made it that much more humorous. It certainly serves as a fantastic example of why market timing is bad.

How can anyone conclude that market timing is bad, just because the stock market went up for certain period of time.  Any market timer might very well have been in the market during those times.  What about the times when the market went down?  Those were the times when buy and hold let you down. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 18, 2017, 11:33:45 PM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

If the top is really in this time, congrats on getting lucky after 4 months of calling every top.  Also, feel free to let us know what your doing about it anytime now. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: marty998 on August 19, 2017, 05:59:01 AM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

If the top is really in this time, congrats on getting lucky after 4 months of calling every top.  Also, feel free to let us know what your doing about it anytime now.

No need to be vindictive about it. Discuss the link, don't play the man.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on August 19, 2017, 07:27:35 AM
I sincerely hope that everyone knows that since there is no definition of "top is in" that any pull-back from a market high can be looked at as a "top is in" moment.

In the last few posts people seem to think that "top is in" and they might be serious about.... it's a meaningless statement.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 19, 2017, 08:41:36 AM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

If the top is really in this time, congrats on getting lucky after 4 months of calling every top.  Also, feel free to let us know what your doing about it anytime now.

No need to be vindictive about it. Discuss the link, don't play the man.

That was my sincerest congratulations
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on August 19, 2017, 10:09:13 PM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4099999

1) Why are you sharing this market-moving info?! Good god man, keep it to yourself and make more money with it.

2) The author's thesis appears to be that you can't get back time. I wholeheartedly agree. Not much else to say about it unless he is also hinting that he has a time machine. Or maybe you do, thorstach? If so, go back in time and hold off on this post until you have an accurate call, then let's both go get that damn sports almanac. I'll even sell my stocks to fund the bets and plutonium.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on August 19, 2017, 10:30:33 PM
I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

As the boys in the Big Short almost found out, the market can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent betting against it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 20, 2017, 07:24:34 AM
I've been watching The Big Short during some of my morning workouts lately, and was struck by something. One of the characters is insisting that we're in a bubble, and his boss says something like, "You never recognize a bubble until after it's popped". The character insists there are always signs if you look.

That's a huge fallacy, largely because there are always signs everywhere of everything collapsing. I work in an FDA-regulated industry, and about 75% of the companies I know of are thisclose to getting a Warning Letter from the FDA the next time they have an inspection. However, you never know which one is actually going to get the hammer brought down and exactly when it's going to happen.

It's the same thing with the various investment markets. There are tons of signs of things that could trigger the next bear market, but you won't know exactly which one will push us over the edge until after it happens.

Not a terribly happy state, but it's the one we've been in for a long long time, and I don't see it changing.

As the boys in the Big Short almost found out, the market can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent betting against it.

 Yes I recall in the movie that the investors were getting cold feet regarding the call that the subprime mortgage market was a bubble about to burst.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: smedleyb on August 20, 2017, 01:07:19 PM
I'm gonna say we're in for a correction next few months... ☺ market has lost faith and about to dump the trump bump.

Times like this I like my bonds.

Trump repeatedly referencing the record high stock market as some kind of validation of his presidency was always going to end badly.  Even Obama was never that foolish to make the connection, and he bought the market at the low and watched it triple.  Trump is buying in at the high, and gloating about it.  Quick 15% haircut immanent, IMO.

I actually think the rich/educated republicans sticking with trump will ditch him in a heartbeat if his shenanigans cause a 20%+ drop in the market. Right now they're all praying that some corporate tax cut will still come to fruition even though that's looking less and less likely.

The thing is, Trump didn't cause the last 20% rise, nor will he be responsible for the the next 20% drop (unless he does something unpredictably crazy like a nuclear strike on North Korea).  He's arriving on the scene after an unrelenting 8 1/2 year bull market that has nearly quadrupled off the low.  I don't try to pick tops or bottoms, but clearly we're much closer to the former than the latter based on time and price.  Trump is chaining himself the markets in a way Obama never did.  Like a fool, he's buying near the top and gloating about his amazing investment acumen, not realizing he's becoming a slave to momentum, and will surely suffer yet more humiliation when markets invariably turn.

Yes, it might be up, up and away from here.  The market might double and Trump can claim greatness.  Or -- and this is the way I'm personally betting -- a serious market gut check is immanent.  IMO, Trump's gloating is just another symptom of a bull market that's gotten far too complacent.  He's the ultimate jinx. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GenXbiker on August 20, 2017, 02:11:59 PM

I'm going to keep riding the Trump bull run with the money I've already got invested, which is about 80%.  The question is when to move more of my cash to stocks.  I like to buy on the dips and am looking for a good sale.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on August 21, 2017, 07:52:27 AM
The market operates independently of politics, imo.

If you could predict the top, that would be great.  Even better if you could predict the bottom, then you could buy like a mofo.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on August 22, 2017, 04:32:54 PM

By  John Coumarianos
Indexing the  S&P  500 is a speculative bet at these prices: GMO
"The stock market is now 35% passive and 65% terrified," says financial adviser and blogger  Josh Brown , a.k.a. "The Reformed Broker." Meaning that more investors nowadays are indexing their money, and active managers fear for their futures.
Which begs the question, did Brown (http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/06/15/id-like-to-solve-the-puzzle-pat/)get it backwards? Should the 35% of stock investments that's indexed actually be the terrified money? Yes,  James Montier  and  Matt Kadnar  of  Boston -based asset manager Grantham, Mayo, van Oterloo (GMO) assert in a new paper called "The  S&P  500: Just Say No (https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-s-p-500-just-say-no.pdf)." The  S&P  500 is so expensive (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/just-say-no-to-the-sp-500-and-buy-these-stocks-instead-say-gmos-strategists-2017-08-16), they say, any money tracking the benchmark U.S. stock market index at this point is more speculation than investment.
Here's how the authors put it: "A decision to allocate to a passive  S&P  500 index is to say that you are ignoring what we believe is the most important determinant of long-term returns: valuation. At this point, you are no longer entitled to refer to yourself as an investor. You may call yourself a speculator, but not an investor.
"Going passive eliminates the ability of an active investor to underweight the most egregiously overpriced securities in the index (we obviously prefer a valuation-based approach for stock selection as well). When faced with the third most expensive US equity market of all time, maintaining a normal weight in a passive index seems to us to be a decision that will likely be very costly. Yet despite this, it remains a popular path, with around 30% of all assets in the U.S. equity market in the hands of passive indexers."
Montier and Kadnar divide stock prices into four components. Since 1970, dividends, earnings growth, profit margins, and P/E multiple changes have contributed 3.4%, 2.3%, 0.50%, and 0.10%, respectively, to the  S&P  500's 6.3% annualized return after inflation.
By contrast, those same inputs have contributed 2.8%, 3.1%, 3.2%, and 3.8% to the index's stunning 13.6% annualized real returns over the past seven years. In other words, the current rally is being carried by unusually high and persistent profit margins and multiple expansion, or the amount investors are willing to pay for earnings.
For recent returns to persist (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-check-list-remains-intact-despite-pullback-morgan-stanley-says-2017-08-21), profit margins and P/E multiples must continue to expand. That's unlikely since both of these components are near all-time highs (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bear-market-could-hit-us-stocks-any-time-now-2017-08-15). GMO uses these four components to try to peer into the future by analyzing the historical cycle of profits, and the firm's forecasts often resemble the signals of  Robert Shiller's  "cyclically adjusted PE ratio" or CAPE, which compares current stock prices to the past decade's worth of real earnings.
Basically, GMO thinks that U.S. stocks over the coming seven years will lose 6% due to P/E multiple contraction, and another 2.8% from margin contraction. While dividend yield and profit gains will contribute 5% to stock returns,, that still amounts to a real total return of -3.9% for the period.
Even assuming the current P/E ratio (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-shocking-truth-about-the-russell-2000s-pe-ratio-2017-08-18)and profit margins are normal doesn't allow for the computation of continued robust returns (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-prices-look-attractive-now-compared-to-bonds-2017-08-21) since P/E and margin expansion account for such a large part of recent gains. Basically, this is the third-most expensive U.S. market ever. The only times stock prices have been higher and prospective returns lower were in 1929 and 2000. A different cyclical adjustment that fund manager  John Hussman  uses shows the current market as the second-most expensive one.
Next, Montier and Kadnar examine stocks from a more bottom-up perspective, using the median stock's Shiller PE and Price/Sales ratio. It turns out that the median stock's Price/Sales ratio has never been more expensive since 1970. The median Shiller PE of stocks in the index is not quite as extreme, but still among the highest readings since 1970.
Finally, Montier and Kadnar run a  Benjamin Graham -style stock screen based on four criteria: Earnings yield twice the AAA bond yield; dividend yield two-thirds of the AAA bond yield; total debt less than two-thirds of tangible book value, and Shiller PE of less than 16x. They find no U.S. stocks currently meeting those criteria. The authors quote Graham: "When such opportunities have virtually disappeared, past experience indicates that investors should have taken themselves out of the stock market and plunged up to their necks in U.S. Treasury bills."
Even allowing for the fact that large U.S businesses are exhibiting monopolistic tendencies, and profit margin cycles appear different lately than in the past, Montier and Kadnar argue that stocks still aren't cheap.
The upshot is that investors should have as little exposure to U.S. stocks as possible. Foreign stocks don't offer compelling returns either, but they are priced to deliver at least somewhat higher returns (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-america-first-isnt-your-best-investment-idea-2017-08-14) than U.S. stocks. That's especially true for emerging markets stocks.
While investors who seek relative value must venture abroad, those investing on more absolute terms should hold some cash. "When there is nothing to do, do nothing," advise the authors. Both relative and absolute value investors should remember economist John Maynard Keynes's remark that they will necessarily seem "eccentric, unconventional, and rash in the eyes of average opinion."
- John Coumarianos ; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
 08-22-17   1746ET
 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on August 22, 2017, 04:42:06 PM
And for every one of those "stocks are waaaaay too expensive, according to _____" articles, there's one of these, proclaiming "stocks are cheap! BUY! BUY! BUY!"

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/18/by-this-measure-stocks-look-fairly-cheap-bmo.html


Whatever.  I'm selling everything and putting it all on Dutch tulip futures.

(https://i.imgflip.com/1ujv1s.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1ujv1s)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 22, 2017, 05:13:14 PM
I think the more pressing question should be "is the bottom in?"
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on August 23, 2017, 09:46:18 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/FH2jEZ8.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 24, 2017, 05:57:11 PM
Here's a counter argument that someone posted in a different thread, suggesting that the CAPE 10 is not as high as it seems.

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-wait-youll-likely-miss-out?nopaging=1
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on August 24, 2017, 07:45:53 PM
My stache on April 11th, when this thread was started:

$301k

My stache as of today:

$330k

Huh, I guess the top wasn't in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: With This Herring on August 24, 2017, 08:46:29 PM
My stache on April 11th, when this thread was started:

$301k

My stache as of today:

$330k

Huh, I guess the top wasn't in.

What if you cheated (hah!) and contributed $30K?!  WHAT THEN?!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on August 30, 2017, 12:08:23 PM
Feels like the right place to post this.

(http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2926280/images/o-HENRY-WINKLER-JUMP-THE-SHARK-facebook.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: boarder42 on August 30, 2017, 12:30:47 PM
Here's a counter argument that someone posted in a different thread, suggesting that the CAPE 10 is not as high as it seems.

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-wait-youll-likely-miss-out?nopaging=1

yep i started a thread about this a while back. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Lobo on August 31, 2017, 04:42:07 AM
(https://betanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/geek-nerd-lottery-cash-money-winner-600x381.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: talltexan on August 31, 2017, 09:39:03 AM
Thanks for posting the swedroe piece, that's really  nice!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on August 31, 2017, 10:04:31 AM
Thanks for posting the swedroe piece, that's really  nice!

I agree, that's a well-written and comprehensive review of valuations.

My favorite part is the discussion about the EV for people who are waiting for the correction to come:

Quote
Looking back at 115 years of data, Elm asked: “During times when the market has been ‘expensive,’ what has been the average cost or benefit of waiting for a correction of 10% from the starting price level, rather than investing right away?” They defined “expensive” as the occasions when the stock market had a CAPE ratio more than one standard deviation above its historical average.
...
  • From a given “expensive” starting point, there was a 56% probability that the market had a 10% correction within three years, waiting for which would result in about a 10% return benefit versus having invested right away.
  • In the 44% of cases where the correction doesn’t happen, there’s an average opportunity cost of about 30%—much greater than the average benefit.
  • Putting these together, the mean expected cost of waiting for a correction was about 8% versus investing right away.
The takeaway is this: Even if you believe the probability of a correction is high, it’s far from certain. And when the correction doesn’t happen, the expected opportunity cost of having waited is much greater than the expected benefit.

And then there's a discussion of the psychological fallacy behind the "wait for a correction" strategy.  Basically, he suggests that people are only accounting on the correction being more likely to happen than to not happen, and failing to account for the payoff of those two probabilities.  Since the cost of getting it wrong if you wait is so much greater than the benefit of getting it right, those folks screwed up.  Ask anyone who's been sitting out of the market the past three years because they thought "valuations are too high" back in 2013.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 31, 2017, 10:12:10 AM
Ask anyone who's been sitting out of the market the past three years because they thought "valuations are too high" back in 2013.

Very apropos to this thread.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on August 31, 2017, 10:17:40 PM
Another 10 points and the S&P will post a new top.. Actually my NW did post a new top today..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on August 31, 2017, 10:54:43 PM
I hate mid month dips. All my money goes in at the begining/end.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: talltexan on September 01, 2017, 12:07:13 PM
I get paid twice a month, so I'm the Cal Ripken, Jr., of Dollar Cost Averaging!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on September 01, 2017, 12:38:38 PM
Ask anyone who's been sitting out of the market the past three years because they thought "valuations are too high" back in 2013.

Very apropos to this thread.

+1

I find buying and selling in hindsight  works 100% of the time. ;-)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on September 01, 2017, 12:43:42 PM
Here's a counter argument that someone posted in a different thread, suggesting that the CAPE 10 is not as high as it seems.

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-wait-youll-likely-miss-out?nopaging=1

yep i started a thread about this a while back.
This was a great read.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: marielle on September 01, 2017, 01:41:29 PM
I get paid twice a month, so I'm the Cal Ripken, Jr., of Dollar Cost Averaging!

I get paid every two weeks meaning my paycheck is on random dates, so I'm the best Dollar Cost Averager.

I wish getting paid daily was an option.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 01, 2017, 03:28:46 PM
Ask anyone who's been sitting out of the market the past three years because they thought "valuations are too high" back in 2013.

Very apropos to this thread.

+1

I find buying and selling in hindsight  works 100% of the time. ;-)

I'm just glad I deposited $1000 with Warren Buffet at the end of 1964..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on September 05, 2017, 10:27:45 AM
Failed breakout, top still in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on September 05, 2017, 11:14:49 AM
Failed breakout, top still in.

I love you.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrStash on September 05, 2017, 11:23:58 AM
Ohhhh how did I know that this thread would be the top one this morning.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on September 05, 2017, 11:33:32 AM
Ohhhh how did I know that this thread would be the top one this morning.

Probably because Top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 05, 2017, 12:20:16 PM
Failed breakout, top still in.

Since the time you started this thread in April my stache has gained roughly $60,000 (separate from my contributions).

Essentially, listening to you would have cost me $60K.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 05, 2017, 01:26:40 PM
Failed breakout, top still in.

Since the time you started this thread in April my stache has gained roughly $60,000 (separate from my contributions).

Essentially, listening to you would have cost me $60K.

And mine has grown $30k.  Damn.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on September 05, 2017, 01:31:45 PM
Failed breakout, top still in.

Since the time you started this thread in April my stache has gained roughly $60,000 (separate from my contributions).

Essentially, listening to you would have cost me $60K.

And mine has grown $30k.  Damn.

I guess your top isn't in yet.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 05, 2017, 02:20:45 PM
Failed breakout, top still in.

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rvqlfAoXseIoDTXfll9A69XI-6Y=/5x0:635x420/1200x800/filters:focal(5x0:635x420)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/45774888/Breakout2600.0.0.png)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 05, 2017, 03:01:54 PM
Failed breakout, top still in.

Since the time you started this thread in April my stache has gained roughly $60,000 (separate from my contributions).

Essentially, listening to you would have cost me $60K.

And mine has grown $30k.  Damn.

It would be interesting to tally the gains of everyone who has read this thread since the beginning of April.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 05, 2017, 05:24:10 PM
Don't laugh too soon.. He may be right this time..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on September 05, 2017, 05:26:50 PM
Don't laugh too soon.. He may be right this time..:)

Maybe but my faulty memory tells me that the market recovers fairly soon after world events such as this. War is good for business, after all.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: moof on September 05, 2017, 06:26:42 PM
Don't laugh too soon.. He may be right this time..:)

OK.  Let's say I sell and sit in cash.  How would we go about calling the bottom to get back in?

I've met a couple folks who called the 2008 crash roughly correct, but sat out way too long due to ongoing grim news and missing buying the trough and never re-bought at the bottom.  They mumble a lot when you ask to know how they did compared to riding it out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 05, 2017, 06:50:56 PM
OK.  Let's say I sell and sit in cash.  How would we go about calling the bottom to get back in?

Just stay tuned to Thorstach's "Bottom is in!" thread?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 05, 2017, 07:31:02 PM
Don't laugh too soon.. He may be right this time..:)

OK.  Let's say I sell and sit in cash.  How would we go about calling the bottom to get back in?

I've met a couple folks who called the 2008 crash roughly correct, but sat out way too long due to ongoing grim news and missing buying the trough and never re-bought at the bottom.  They mumble a lot when you ask to know how they did compared to riding it out.

I said he maybe right.. I didn't say I would anything different to what I am now.. I'm sitting at 80/20 (60/40 if you count my pensions as bonds) and have absolutely no intention of selling anything..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 05, 2017, 09:14:53 PM
I love this thread, it's fun, but there's so many lessons to take away from it.  I also love how thorstach said nothing all last week while the market was heading upwards.  Call your false breakout while its happening, anyone can predict the past.  I predict my account actually went up today, cause I deposited more money.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on September 06, 2017, 04:54:50 AM
Ask anyone who's been sitting out of the market the past three years because they thought "valuations are too high" back in 2013.

Very apropos to this thread.

+1

I find buying and selling in hindsight  works 100% of the time. ;-)

I'm just glad I deposited $1000 with Warren Buffet at the end of 1964..:)

I cashed out of birkshire mid 2015 and put it all into bitcoins.  ;-)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 06, 2017, 07:57:43 AM
This thread is great inoculation against all the other (much more scary) doomsday predictions that appear on "real" financial sites.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 06, 2017, 09:37:06 AM
Oh it will get scary one day.. in 2008 I set my 401k to buy nothing but stock indexes and turned off the media.

I would have gone crazy otherwise.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: talltexan on September 06, 2017, 11:02:50 AM
I was thinking now was a good time to dial back on the stocks, maybe get some bonds. Have I come to the right place?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 06, 2017, 11:03:24 AM
You can have as many bonds as you like!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 06, 2017, 11:23:09 AM
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Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: moof on September 06, 2017, 11:50:25 AM
Don't laugh too soon.. He may be right this time..:)

OK.  Let's say I sell and sit in cash.  How would we go about calling the bottom to get back in?

I've met a couple folks who called the 2008 crash roughly correct, but sat out way too long due to ongoing grim news and missing buying the trough and never re-bought at the bottom.  They mumble a lot when you ask to know how they did compared to riding it out.

I said he maybe right.. I didn't say I would anything different to what I am now.. I'm sitting at 80/20 (60/40 if you count my pensions as bonds) and have absolutely no intention of selling anything..:)
I'm around 85/15, and no intention of selling.  My investment strategy is simple:
1)  Stocks go up:  I buy.
2)  Stocks stay flat:  I buy.
3)  Stops go down:  I buy.

I keep a small cash cushion and plan for long term expenses, everything else gets invested ASAP.

I have a friend with amazing luck, who managed to get 50% return by putting all his money in NZ CD's to help gain residency for the coming apocalypse 5 years ago.  I have the exact opposite luck.  My investment strategy includes buying lots of VTSAX, since if I buy the whole market and my luck goes south I will take all you suckers down with me!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 06, 2017, 02:08:14 PM
Ask anyone who's been sitting out of the market the past three years because they thought "valuations are too high" back in 2013.

Very apropos to this thread.

+1

I find buying and selling in hindsight  works 100% of the time. ;-)

I'm just glad I deposited $1000 with Warren Buffet at the end of 1964..:)

I cashed out of birkshire mid 2015 and put it all into bitcoins.  ;-)

Hmmm bitcoin has gone up a million per cent  in value.
I guess you're a billionaire now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 06, 2017, 04:20:12 PM
Failed breakout, top still in.

Since the time you started this thread in April my stache has gained roughly $60,000 (separate from my contributions).

Essentially, listening to you would have cost me $60K.

And mine has grown $30k.  Damn.

It would be interesting to tally the gains of everyone who has read this thread since the beginning of April.

$43K in gains for me, from April to Sept.

Thanks Thorstach!

(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/7c/31/23/7c3123cbf3fd9a06a98b2cddf43ddf07--buddy-christ-christian-jokes.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 06, 2017, 04:28:48 PM
It would be interesting to tally the gains of everyone who has read this thread since the beginning of April.

On paper, I'm up $152,954 since then.  That's cheating, though, since most of the gain isn't stock market valuation change.

It's still a crazy fucking number.  What a year.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: boarder42 on September 06, 2017, 04:58:31 PM
I'm up 100k but there are contributions in there.  And some private stock gains
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: moof on September 06, 2017, 04:58:56 PM
Can't say how much I am up overall without actual effort (lazy SOB here).  Just at 60% of my stache is in a Fidelity account that are not contributed to, and those are up just at 4% since the beginning of April, about $15k.  So overall it is likely $22k if I extrapolate to my other accounts with very similar allocations.  So Thorstash would have cost me a new car.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on September 06, 2017, 07:34:59 PM
Can't say how much I am up overall without actual effort (lazy SOB here).  Just at 60% of my stache is in a Fidelity account that are not contributed to, and those are up just at 4% since the beginning of April, about $15k.  So overall it is likely $22k if I extrapolate to my other accounts with very similar allocations.  So Thorstash would have cost me a new car.

Yeah, I would have to like go log into accounts and things. Meh. I already did that once this year, maybe I'll do it again after Christmas.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 06, 2017, 08:03:54 PM

Yeah, I would have to like go log into accounts and things. Meh. I already did that once this year, maybe I'll do it again after Christmas.


LOL
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 06, 2017, 08:50:48 PM
Not a perfect calculation, seeing as some included contributions and such, but from the numbers that have been thrown out so far it looks as if listening to Thorstach would have cost members in this thread around $407,954 (so far).

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 07, 2017, 01:01:35 AM
From the 25th April until the peak last week was roughly

$80k for investments and $20k for pensions.. I guess pensions don't count as far as adjusting investments so call it $80k for me
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on September 07, 2017, 01:17:06 AM
Whenever thorstach has a dry spell and I need a different source of entertainment I like to read the Technical Indicator (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-nasdaq-traverse-firmer-technical-territory-even-amid-geopolitical-tensions-2017-09-05-121035210).
Quote
Similarly, the S&P 500’s backdrop remains relatively straightforward, even amid the jagged late-summer price action.

Tactically, the S&P has reclaimed the headline 2,453 mark, an area matching trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average.

To be sure, the reversal has registered low marks for style, as measured by volume and breadth, though as always, price action trumps other indicators.
Yup.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 07, 2017, 07:44:06 AM
Ignoring contributions, my stash has returned ~9.3% since the start of the thread on April 11.  Thanks, thorstach!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 07, 2017, 08:17:52 AM
From the 25th April until the peak last week was roughly

$80k for investments and $20k for pensions.. I guess pensions don't count as far as adjusting investments so call it $80k for me

Updated total of $487,954 ... crazy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 07, 2017, 08:38:34 AM
From the 25th April until the peak last week was roughly

$80k for investments and $20k for pensions.. I guess pensions don't count as far as adjusting investments so call it $80k for me

Updated total of $487,954 ... crazy.

I think that the relevant question here isn't how much listening to Thorstach would have cost this thread's participants, but how much listening to Thorstach has cost Thorstach.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on September 07, 2017, 09:01:00 AM
Whenever thorstach has a dry spell and I need a different source of entertainment I like to read the Technical Indicator (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-nasdaq-traverse-firmer-technical-territory-even-amid-geopolitical-tensions-2017-09-05-121035210).
Quote
Similarly, the S&P 500’s backdrop remains relatively straightforward, even amid the jagged late-summer price action.

Tactically, the S&P has reclaimed the headline 2,453 mark, an area matching trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average.

To be sure, the reversal has registered low marks for style, as measured by volume and breadth, though as always, price action trumps other indicators.
Yup.
Thanks farfromfire.   Since I get my too-often-checked quotes from http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quotes/default.asp?fontsize=larger   ,
I don't see the main site, and never saw this before. Have we checked to see if thorstach isn't just quoting these people?
I'm a Yankee,  but I need to say "Isn't that special".
Do we credit the "author" of these articles or the programmer of the quote generator?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 07, 2017, 09:03:36 AM
I think that the relevant question here isn't how much listening to Thorstach would have cost this thread's participants, but how much listening to Thorstach has cost Thorstach.

Thorstach is too smart to listen to a kook on the internet. ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on September 07, 2017, 09:25:16 AM
I'm up $42,972 since April.  That's total net worth according to mint.  As for just my investments...I'm up whatever I've contributed plus whatever growth VTSAX and VTIAX have had.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cache_Stash on September 07, 2017, 04:10:23 PM
Up $43K since April
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on September 07, 2017, 04:47:58 PM
+ 59.6K since april 11
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 07, 2017, 09:18:59 PM
I'm up $42,972 since April.  That's total net worth according to mint.  As for just my investments...I'm up whatever I've contributed plus whatever growth VTSAX and VTIAX have had.

Up $43K since April

+ 59.6K since april 11


Updated total:  $633,526 gained by people in this thread since April.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: RWD on September 07, 2017, 09:39:25 PM
Our investments alone (not counting contributions) are up about $25k since April.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mies on September 08, 2017, 03:21:17 AM
I'm only up about $1600. My investment accounts are not as large as most other forum members since I only really got serious about investing this year.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PathtoFIRE on September 08, 2017, 08:22:20 AM
I keep track of my numbers on the first of every month, and I show a gain of $51979 since June 1st (and had a gain of $15824 in the month of April, some of which is probably attributable to April 11-30).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markpst on September 08, 2017, 10:28:51 AM
I am up $31K (excluding new contributions) since mid-April.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mississippi Mudstache on September 08, 2017, 11:07:33 AM
Up $11,000 since April 11. That's just gains on investments, no contributions.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on September 08, 2017, 02:13:24 PM
I listened to thorstach and took my money out of the market right after his first post, so I'm up about 100 bucks in bank interest minus any taxes I'll have to pay. Oh wait, I just checked and I guess I forgot to sell, so I'm actually up 45k not including contributions. That's a relief.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dycker1978 on September 08, 2017, 02:19:42 PM
I listened to thorstach and took my money out of the market right after his first post, so I'm up about 100 bucks in bank interest minus any taxes I'll have to pay. Oh wait, I just checked and I guess I forgot to sell, so I'm actually up 45k not including contributions. That's a relief.

HAHA awesome
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: lisa_mustache on September 08, 2017, 02:24:43 PM
I think I'm up around $65k since April, net of contributions.  I love the Top!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 08, 2017, 07:51:20 PM
Our investments alone (not counting contributions) are up about $25k since April.
I'm only up about $1600. My investment accounts are not as large as most other forum members since I only really got serious about investing this year.
I keep track of my numbers on the first of every month, and I show a gain of $51979 since June 1st (and had a gain of $15824 in the month of April, some of which is probably attributable to April 11-30).
I am up $31K (excluding new contributions) since mid-April.
Up $11,000 since April 11. That's just gains on investments, no contributions.
I listened to thorstach and took my money out of the market right after his first post, so I'm up about 100 bucks in bank interest minus any taxes I'll have to pay. Oh wait, I just checked and I guess I forgot to sell, so I'm actually up 45k not including contributions. That's a relief.
I think I'm up around $65k since April, net of contributions.  I love the Top!

Updated total $879,929 gained by people in this thread since April.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on September 08, 2017, 09:36:53 PM
I don't have nearly as much invested as most of you, but my holdings are up $2,500. Thanks Thorstach!
(https://i.imgflip.com/1vjwz6.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1vjwz6)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 09, 2017, 09:10:23 AM
Not including contributions, I'm only up about $900 since April, partly because i don't have the income/assets many people here do, and partly because I'm only 1/3 in US stocks, another 1/3 is in Canadian stocks which have sucked been on sale since april. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on September 09, 2017, 11:09:19 AM
Hmm, gained plenty on FX when stated in USD but not so much joy in AUD.

The Aussie stock market is a lame duck ATM, and the USD has dropped 10% against the AUD more than offsetting gains on USD investments when I restate them to AUD.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Chargem on September 09, 2017, 01:19:48 PM
I read this whole thread start to finish today, it was excellent. 10/10, would read again.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: steveo on September 09, 2017, 06:05:00 PM
Hmm, gained plenty on FX when stated in USD but not so much joy in AUD.

The Aussie stock market is a lame duck ATM, and the USD has dropped 10% against the AUD more than offsetting gains on USD investments when I restate them to AUD.

Yep. I've gone backwards. Still I'm cool with it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: zinnie on September 09, 2017, 06:08:29 PM
I read this whole thread start to finish today, it was excellent. 10/10, would read again.

this.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 10, 2017, 03:07:52 PM
Top must not be in.  Just got the email from FutureAdvisor my portfolio is up 2.5% over the last 30 days.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: the_gastropod on September 11, 2017, 10:17:04 AM
Looks like we'll be getting a new top today! So here to say... TOP IS IN
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on September 11, 2017, 12:41:56 PM
To my faithful and loyal disciples/minions from this thread:

I've become slightly more bearish since my Aug post. Not saying the top is in but the econ growth "rate" has slowed somewhat compared to the beginning of the year. I am hoping the price of oil to be elevated ( >48 but <53) until the lost US production is recouped so we may see some "inflation" in the next 6 months. Market breadth is not bad but again has decreased/flattened further.

Unlike most members we actually lost about 70k since May due to the strength of CDN. Feelsbadman but what can you do, selling would have netted a tax bill about half the size....
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 11, 2017, 12:58:01 PM
Unlike most members we actually lost about 70k since May due to the strength of CDN.

You didn't lose $70K. The units of measure just got more valuable. Big difference.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on September 11, 2017, 12:59:50 PM
Scott Adams, on stock-picking:
Quote
Finance

When I was young, I assumed experts could pick stocks better than a monkey with a dart board. It turns out I was wrong. Index funds with no experts whatsoever routinely outperform the expert stock-pickers.

I have a degree in economics and an MBA from UC Berkeley. I did financial projections for a living, first at a major bank and later at the local phone company. People considered me an expert in that narrow field. In a number of cases, I got to track how my projections compared to actual results. They were rarely close. As an expert, I deserved no credibility whatsoever. And for a good reason. My projections required human judgment on lots of variables, so the output was little more than guessing and massaging the numbers to meet my boss’s expectations.

See the whole article here: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/165227772726/when-to-trust-the-experts-climate-and-otherwise
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on September 11, 2017, 01:03:55 PM
Unlike most members we actually lost about 70k since May due to the strength of CDN.

You didn't lose $70K. The units of measure just got more valuable. Big difference.

Yes of course. But it is better to stay consistent with the net amount in the accounts. It felt great in 2014-2016, it's only fair to look at it the same way now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 11, 2017, 01:06:34 PM
Scott Adams, on stock-picking:

I lost a lot of respect for Scott Adams when he became such a vocal and influential Trump promoter.  He's a funny guy, but his politics are pretty messed up.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 11, 2017, 01:25:14 PM
Updated total $879,929 gained by people in this thread since April.

That number is going up a lot today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: talltexan on September 11, 2017, 01:31:36 PM
I, too, have followed Scott Adams' Trump boosterism.

I thought he saw it as the best way to build his online following for the launch of this new startup he's been promoting. Frankly, his financial success may mean he has a lot to gain from a Trump Presidency, particularly if it dismantles the estate tax as part of tax reform.

There are times when I'm grateful for Scott's writing, because many conservative authors I follow (David Frum, David French, Mona Charen) have been pretty anti-Trump.

But I agree that posts like this (http://blog.dilbert.com/post/160770453201/the-slow-motion-assassination-of-president-trump (http://blog.dilbert.com/post/160770453201/the-slow-motion-assassination-of-president-trump)) are not a good look for Adams, particularly within his own belief system in which cognitive dissonance is the single greatest check on credibility.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on September 11, 2017, 01:33:19 PM
Scott Adams, on stock-picking:

I lost a lot of respect for Scott Adams when he became such a vocal and influential Trump promoter.  He's a funny guy, but his politics are pretty messed up.
He can vote and promote whoever he wants, but he is a real idiot when it comes to... many topics. See here:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Scott_Adams#Views_on_science_and_history
Quote
I’d also like to know how the Holocaust death total of 6 million was determined... is it like every other LRN (large round number) that someone pulled out of his ass and it became true by repetition?
Quote
I’ve been trying for years to reconcile my usually-excellent bullshit filter with the idea that evolution is considered a scientific fact
Quote
    The reality is that women are treated differently by society for exactly the same reason that children and the mentally handicapped are treated differently. It’s just easier this way for everyone. You don’t argue with a four-year old about why he shouldn’t eat candy for dinner. You don't punch a mentally handicapped guy even if he punches you first. And you don’t argue when a women tells you she’s only making 80 cents to your dollar. It’s the path of least resistance. You save your energy for more important battles.
etc,etc,etc.

His post that was linked to above, along with the quotes here, are premier examples of "just asking questions" (https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/JAQing_off).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: RWD on September 11, 2017, 02:03:39 PM
Scott Adams, on stock-picking:
[...]

While he's not wrong that stock picking is analogous to throwing darts at a board... It's a pretty big leap for him to go from the anecdote of himself being terrible at his job of predicting things to everyone in every field is terrible at predicting things.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 11, 2017, 02:06:31 PM
Guess what, everyone?








The top....  well, it's....








IN!









(http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6ywy3ZAfv1qgz2tq.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: NeonPegasus on September 11, 2017, 02:30:58 PM
Up $35k since 4/13 and that's after paying $20k in kids' tuition.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 11, 2017, 02:44:00 PM
Guess what, everyone?








The top....  well, it's....








IN!



Don't you mean the bottom is in?  :)

Actually I hope not, I could use a few years of steep discounts on my investment funds

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mies on September 11, 2017, 03:32:27 PM
God damn it! Do we have to recalculate our paper gains since this post started?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 11, 2017, 04:28:16 PM
God damn it! Do we have to recalculate our paper gains since this post started?

Wait until OP comes back to certify the top is actually still in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on September 11, 2017, 04:48:55 PM
Scott Adams, on stock-picking:

I lost a lot of respect for Scott Adams when he became such a vocal and influential Trump promoter.  He's a funny guy, but his politics are pretty messed up.

Ugh. Scientists do NOT say "it's too early to tell" - or at least the vast majority.

Rebuttal from another cartoonist:

https://xkcd.com/1732/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 12, 2017, 08:09:04 AM
I have lost track.  Is this a new top?  Or does it need to break out by the dead cat bounce percentage or something like that?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on September 12, 2017, 08:13:16 AM
I have lost track.  Is this a new top?  Or does it need to break out by the dead cat bounce percentage or something like that?

(https://i.imgflip.com/1vq61r.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on September 12, 2017, 08:18:09 AM
I have lost track.  Is this a new top?  Or does it need to break out by the dead cat bounce percentage or something like that?

Is it a new top every day it's higher, or is today just a continuation of yesterday's top?

S&P 500 closing in on 2500.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 12, 2017, 10:40:28 AM
False breakout...S&P still showing red.  VIX is fake news.  Top is in.

(Did I do it right?)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 12, 2017, 10:43:29 AM
False breakout...S&P still showing red.  VIX is fake news.  Top is in.

(Did I do it right?)

(http://swing-trading-strategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Crazy-Trading-Charts-7.png)

Nice. Here is something to make it more realz.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 12, 2017, 10:56:05 AM
^^^ Well, that really cleared it up for me.  ^^^
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 12, 2017, 11:01:31 AM
that graph can cause a seizure
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 12, 2017, 02:00:50 PM
New top is in.. S&P500
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 12, 2017, 02:15:43 PM
But what about this?  Can't you tell that the crash is coming?

(http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/52fa7836ecad042d72f92b2a-960/1929-versus-today.png)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 12, 2017, 02:21:15 PM
Haha, reminds me of those threads back in 2014 where so many people were absolutely certain that a crash was imminent.  I hope those people didn't cash out in 2014 and miss out on all the gains since then.

Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!".  Geez, I guess some people never really learn.  It makes you wonder - when exactly are these types of people actually comfortable investing in the market? 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on September 12, 2017, 03:44:09 PM
(http://swing-trading-strategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Crazy-Trading-Charts-7.png)

Nice. Here is something to make it more realz.

Wow, how could we all have been so blind? It was right in front of our faces all along.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on September 12, 2017, 09:47:36 PM
False breakout...S&P still showing red.  VIX is fake news.  Top is in.

(Did I do it right?)

That's pretty good, but still doesn't quite have the panache of the real thing.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Finances_With_Purpose on September 12, 2017, 10:32:41 PM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Were we being trolled? 

We need a sticky thread for financial predictions so that we can go back and evaluate/mock/ridicule/humor ourselves at them later...

There's so much good material you forget it by the time it's proven false. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 13, 2017, 01:29:14 PM
S&P hits intra-day record high.  Top is in.  For today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on September 13, 2017, 06:09:03 PM

Wow, how could we all have been so blind? It was right in front of our faces all along.

Probably blinded by that graph. Or busy having a siezure...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 13, 2017, 06:14:13 PM
S&P hits intra-day record high.  Top is in.  For today.

And the Dow put in a record high at closing.  Definitely a new top.  At least until next week.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 13, 2017, 08:12:51 PM
But what about this?  Can't you tell that the crash is coming?


Haven't seen that chart before, and took me a while to notice that it was from 2014.  I wonder how many people pulled out of the market and lost big because of that completely meaningless comparison. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 14, 2017, 07:57:33 AM
But what about this?  Can't you tell that the crash is coming?


Haven't seen that chart before, and took me a while to notice that it was from 2014.  I wonder how many people pulled out of the market and lost big because of that completely meaningless comparison.
I was wondering when someone would notice it was from 2014...  Still the same fears and warnings being trumpeted today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on September 14, 2017, 09:22:45 AM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 14, 2017, 10:57:59 AM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

RUN TO THE HILLS!!!!!!11!!!

(https://parlorofhorror.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/derek-riggs-iron-maiden-run-to-the-hills.jpg?w=512)

Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 14, 2017, 12:12:15 PM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Comar on September 15, 2017, 01:06:32 AM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mies on September 15, 2017, 03:07:37 AM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

I'm going to be non-comittal and say 5. In 5 years the s&p 500 could be over 3000 or under 2000 again. A correction will happen at some point. As long as we continue to buy and hold through the dip and let the dividends reinvest, by the time everything has recovered, we will come out ahead.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kalergie on September 15, 2017, 03:21:55 AM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.

I think I'm going to hang this chart in my office. :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 15, 2017, 07:39:27 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1vx063.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on September 15, 2017, 08:31:22 AM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

Considering a drop like that has only really happened one other time, I'd say no.

We will probably see a 10-20% drop though, but even that isn't certain.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 15, 2017, 08:54:50 AM
Hey S&P500, DOW, and NASDAQ:

(https://i.imgflip.com/1vx697.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 15, 2017, 01:12:48 PM
Hey S&P500, DOW, and NASDAQ:

(https://i.imgflip.com/1vx697.jpg)

Why does Thorstach disappear when this happens?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on September 15, 2017, 02:10:51 PM
Top is yet again! 2500!

Although I love all the money I make when this keeps happening, my favorite thing about this market is that this thread keeps going and going.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on September 15, 2017, 02:15:49 PM
I forgot to mention that for the technically inclined that 2500 is a weekly close. Sorry about that stake to the heart Thorstache.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on September 15, 2017, 02:21:40 PM
Top is in!  Got to be all downhill from here after 2500 on the S&P!

Oh wait...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on September 15, 2017, 02:27:14 PM
I just LOVE how this thread just keeps coming back around! It should almost be criminal to get this many laughs out of one thread.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 15, 2017, 02:35:42 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/599978863909859328/WxD4EKsA.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on September 15, 2017, 02:40:35 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1vxy7q.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1vxy7q)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 15, 2017, 03:58:22 PM
I'm pretty sure we'll get a pull-back eventually.  I'm a lot less certain that it will ever again fall as low as today's closing price. 

So I'm still buying, come what may.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: secondcor521 on September 15, 2017, 04:51:13 PM
I'm almost assured that the S&P will not go up tomorrow.  I am within a hair's breadth of an odometer net worth number and have come close to this number before, but never over it.  Sorry, everyone!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dycker1978 on September 15, 2017, 04:53:45 PM
I'm almost assured that the S&P will not go up tomorrow.  I am within a hair's breadth of an odometer net worth number and have come close to this number before, but never over it.  Sorry, everyone!

So you assure us the top is in then?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: secondcor521 on September 15, 2017, 04:55:18 PM
I'm almost assured that the S&P will not go up tomorrow.  I am within a hair's breadth of an odometer net worth number and have come close to this number before, but never over it.  Sorry, everyone!

So you assure us the top is in then?

Heheheh.  Yeah, that, or the market is closed tomorrow because it's a weekend.  But yeah, definitely down on Monday!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on September 15, 2017, 06:04:12 PM
Maybe the top was in for cryptocurrencies?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on September 17, 2017, 08:06:12 AM
On April 11 2017 the Nasdaq Index top was in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: C-note on September 17, 2017, 08:32:24 AM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.

I think I'm going to hang this chart in my office. :)

Ditto.  Interesting to note that there are dips in the market that don't qualify as a bear market and sometimes not even as a recession.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on September 17, 2017, 09:00:35 AM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on September 17, 2017, 03:47:35 PM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 17, 2017, 03:51:46 PM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

And your actionable alternative is.....??
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on September 17, 2017, 04:40:59 PM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

And your actionable alternative is.....??

I'm not suggesting an alternative. Like I said i'm bullish. I've been long the market for a very long time. The thing I was trying to point out is that I feel like I have seen a "you just can't lose" mentality, and I've seen it here. That type of dogma causes me a little bit of concern. At some point the best thing to do will be to sell stocks, but of course you and I probably won't know when that time will be. What I do know is that if the whole world had that "you just can't loose" attitude I would be bearish.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: MrDelane on September 17, 2017, 05:49:38 PM
On a scale from 0 (not likely) to 10 (very likely) do you think the markets are going to drop significantly (think something like 2008) in the next 5 years. Why? Why not?

A 20% drop? I'd say 5. It'll happen, but people who say they can predict when are deluding themselves. And it may be because something bad happens with North Korea, which all the technical analysis in the world can't predict. In other words, it's always a 5.

Something like 2008? 0 or 1. It wasn't called "The Great Recession" just because it sounded cool. Those kind of events are relatively rare. And they're usually preceded with a whole lot of irrational exuberance, and people getting into a "you just can't lose" mentality. I haven't seen that yet, I'm seeing a lot of people still burned by 2008-2009.

I agree with you but I'd suggest that a little introspection is in order. Many on this site and on this very thread seem have a "you just can't lose" mentality with regard to indexing. I wouldn't argue with them about it likely being the best approach to building wealth. I'm bullish and have been for a very long time. However very bad things can and do happen. We are talking about risk assets after all. Those risk assets are now trading at very high valuations yet people continue to plow money into ETFs. I think a crash is extremely unlikely in the near future, but you never can tell.

And your actionable alternative is.....??

I'm not suggesting an alternative. Like I said i'm bullish. I've been long the market for a very long time. The thing I was trying to point out is that I feel like I have seen a "you just can't lose" mentality, and I've seen it here. That type of dogma causes me a little bit of concern. At some point the best thing to do will be to sell stocks, but of course you and I probably won't know when that time will be. What I do know is that if the whole world had that "you just can't loose" attitude I would be bearish.


In case I in any way have added to the perception of a "you just can't lose" mentality - let me be clear in saying that is definitely not my approach to investing.  My approach of plowing money into the market regardless of what is happening is not based on some blind bullish view - but moreso on the lack of actionable alternative (as tyort1 pointed out).


I would also point out that I believe there is a significant difference between the market tanking and my 'losing.'
Losses happen when I sell.  So long as I can wait out a bear market when it happens, I haven't lost.

I might lose some sleep... some hair... and some confidence... but hopefully I'll hang on (again) long enough to not lose a ton of money.

Indexing, to me, certainly isn't about being bullish... it's about realizing there isn't an obvious actionable alternative.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 17, 2017, 06:00:30 PM
With apologies to Churchill:  "Indexing is the very worst form of investing.  Except for all the others."
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 18, 2017, 10:32:58 AM
Wow the top is really in today! 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on September 18, 2017, 01:01:35 PM
At 62 yrs old, the market does concern me, on the other hand I still should have 25 years
to grow the money and can stand a down turn or two. Been through 2000 and 2008.
It was no fun but I don't even remember the hurt feelings.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Jon_Snow on September 18, 2017, 01:29:07 PM
I'm going to admit that I've not every post in this thread. But I've read enough of it (and similar threads in the past) to get the gist of it.

And I can't decide if it's one of the best or worst troll jobs ever.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: slow hand slow plan on September 18, 2017, 01:41:38 PM
Dis TOP Dough...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 18, 2017, 01:42:58 PM
I'm going to admit that I've not every post in this thread. But I've read enough of it (and similar threads in the past) to get the gist of it.

And I can't decide if it's one of the best or worst troll jobs ever.

(http://static1.thethingsimages.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/whatislosing.jpeg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on September 18, 2017, 01:45:44 PM
I'm going to admit that I've not every post in this thread. But I've read enough of it (and similar threads in the past) to get the gist of it.

And I can't decide if it's one of the best or worst troll jobs ever.

Somewhere upthread I used the term "nicest troll", and I stand by that statement.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 19, 2017, 03:13:21 PM
Top is DEFINITELY in now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 19, 2017, 03:19:03 PM
(http://www.kiplinger.com/kipimages/pages/13123.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thenextguy on September 19, 2017, 03:37:09 PM
Can't wait for the market to eventually crash and for thorstach to say, "See? I told you!"
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 19, 2017, 04:22:25 PM
Can't wait for the market to eventually crash and for thorstach to say, "See? I told you!"

Be ready there will be a lot of that going by "experts" who didn't publically indicate they were getting out of equities, but will [amazingly] have done so at the perfect time. It will be almost like they had some sort of crystal ball. ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: v8rx7guy on September 19, 2017, 05:20:52 PM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.

Am I the only one who thinks... "hmmm this forum has only existed in the 'blue' section and never been thru and 'orange'?  So many of us talk a big game, but haven't weathered any real storms.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Caoineag on September 19, 2017, 05:36:17 PM
Am I the only one who thinks... "hmmm this forum has only existed in the 'blue' section and never been thru and 'orange'?  So many of us talk a big game, but haven't weathered any real storms.

Except we have actually had threads about who was investing during the Great Recession so I am not sure I buy that no one has weathered any real storms.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 19, 2017, 05:59:39 PM
Of course nowadays those same types of people are saying "well we were over priced in 2014 so now we're really, really overpriced in 2017!". 

They may be right, but even if that's the case, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
Most bear markets last 18 months or less.  I can handle it.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Holy crap that's an awesome graph.  We should sticky that, seriously.  Thank you.

Am I the only one who thinks... "hmmm this forum has only existed in the 'blue' section and never been thru and 'orange'?  So many of us talk a big game, but haven't weathered any real storms.

Right, but that's one of the benefits of this forum - it helps inoculate you against behaving stupidly during  a recession or dip.  I didn't have a huge amount invested in 2008, but I did have some investments, and I did not panic or cash out back then.  I have a lot more $$ invested now, but I also feel much more clear about the need to take the long view and specifically not get caught up in short term gains/losses (especially losses). 

Put another way... I would be at a MUCH higher risk of doing something stupid during the next major dip if I hadn't found MMM in general, and this forum in particular. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 19, 2017, 06:03:42 PM
Agreed.. I will never forget the gut wrenching feeling of watching the market crash day after day in 2008.

Eventually I just maxed out my 401k contributions, bought nothing but stock ETF's and turned off the TV.

That was not a fun time.

In 2009 it looked like life was returning..

Then I remember the DOW crossing 15000.. I was still 100% stocks

In September 2013 I realised we were FI.

It was a good lesson about staying invested in the market.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 19, 2017, 06:58:13 PM
Except we have actually had threads about who was investing during the Great Recession so I am not sure I buy that no one has weathered any real storms.

Tech Bubble and the GREAT recession here. I didn't enjoy either and I didn't respond optimally [dump every penny I could into more stocks], but I also left my chips in the game and didn't panic. I'm better prepared for the next crash with two under my belt.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on September 19, 2017, 07:31:03 PM

Except we have actually had threads about who was investing during the Great Recession so I am not sure I buy that no one has weathered any real storms.

 I had a few hundred thousand for the 2000 downturn, BUT, I had a guru,
that said to sell on Feb 11. The market peaked less than a month later and
then had a huge decline.
 My same guru completely missed 2008 and I was down $300k or so.
 Funny, I don't even remember feeling bad about it. Don't recall any fretting about it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 19, 2017, 08:41:53 PM
Yeah, i haven't been (invested) though any major downturn, but I hope that what i've learned here will serve me well when it does happen.  The pre-MMM me would probably have gone all cash at the slightest downturn, then spent everything to be prepared for the apocalypse and never re-invest.  The current me will try to stay the course and refer to the forums when in doubt.  My only wish is that i remain employed during the next recession so i have the funds to keep investing during the dip. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Inaya on September 19, 2017, 10:06:54 PM
I've only been invested since 2014. I have no idea if I have the fortitude to weather a recession--but I'd like to think I do. Regardless, I'm a lot better off having found MMM, since prior to discovering it, I was in the "the stock markets are no better than the lottery" crowd.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: v8rx7guy on September 19, 2017, 10:32:48 PM
Am I the only one who thinks... "hmmm this forum has only existed in the 'blue' section and never been thru and 'orange'?  So many of us talk a big game, but haven't weathered any real storms.

Except we have actually had threads about who was investing during the Great Recession so I am not sure I buy that no one has weathered any real storms.

Thats why I said "so many" not "all" of us.  I did a poll a month or two ago that show that about 80% of this forum had less than $50k invested during the 2008 downturn.  This includes myself. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on September 20, 2017, 03:33:32 AM
I would be rather shocked if any regular forum contributors sold out of the market after a 20% plus drop, irrespective of a lack of past experience.

Sure, there will always be a crowd of experts trying to pick the top, but selling post crash from this forum's membership, I'd be surprised!! I doubt we would even see that being a topic of discussion.

I am sure there will be a lot of discussion and speculation on how long the market recovery might take - months, years, decades. But at that point what is there to do but take it on the chin ride it out.

Maybe there will be some doomsayers believing the correction is a forerunner to the end of capitalism. I have difficulty imagining the consequences of such an event so choose to discount its plausibility.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Caoineag on September 20, 2017, 07:29:32 AM
=
Thats why I said "so many" not "all" of us.  I did a poll a month or two ago that show that about 80% of this forum had less than $50k invested during the 2008 downturn.  This includes myself.

Oh I had less than 50k back then, every contribution was magically smaller when I made it and I was still trying to find more to contribute. But I think my view differs from yours in that the money I had at risk was way more important for me back then. A downturn now would still leave me with a ton of resources and so is less scary. Back then, I had never received free money from my investment returns, now I have received so much that a downturn would be just giving a portion of that back.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that most people overestimate their risk tolerance during boom years. I just think quite a few of us have already been tested on our own tolerance and so have a pretty good idea of what we can handle.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 20, 2017, 07:32:35 AM
I wish I had forums and information like this during the 2000 - 2003 correction because I would have invested more in the stock market then.
Fortunately what was invested in the stock market was mostly invested in S&P 500 index by that point, with some small amount in actively managed mutual funds that fared really badly.

For the 2008 crash I was better prepared to deal with it having read David Swensen's book for small investors.

But these forums with their wealth of information in real time are even better. So I think there will be threads about what to do if the market crashes. We, the forum members, will be able to help each other out during that psychologically difficult time.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 20, 2017, 09:28:47 AM
Isn't this why it is healthy to have a diversified portfolio?  Let's assume I am at 60/40.   Let's further assume you are at 100% stocks.  A 2008 level event, a 50% drop in the market, is a 50% drop in your portfolio and a 30% drop in mine.  Sure, you get more robust growth during the good years, but I'm in my late 40s and I plan on needing the money in my early 50s, so I have less time to recover.  That's the whole point in being at 60/40 rather than 100% stocks.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 20, 2017, 09:57:31 AM
Isn't this why it is healthy to have a diversified portfolio?  Let's assume I am at 60/40.   Let's further assume you are at 100% stocks.  A 2008 level event, a 50% drop in the market, is a 50% drop in your portfolio and a 30% drop in mine.  Sure, you get more robust growth during the good years, but I'm in my late 40s and I plan on needing the money in my early 50s, so I have less time to recover.  That's the whole point in being at 60/40 rather than 100% stocks.

There was a thread entitled "why would I be in anything but 100% stocks"  There was a great debate on this very issue.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/why-would-i-be-in-anything-other-than-100-stocks/100/

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/100-stocks-or-9010/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 20, 2017, 10:03:39 AM
Isn't this why it is healthy to have a diversified portfolio?  Let's assume I am at 60/40.   Let's further assume you are at 100% stocks.  A 2008 level event, a 50% drop in the market, is a 50% drop in your portfolio and a 30% drop in mine.  Sure, you get more robust growth during the good years, but I'm in my late 40s and I plan on needing the money in my early 50s, so I have less time to recover.  That's the whole point in being at 60/40 rather than 100% stocks.

Yep.  I do 80/20, but as I get closer to FIRE, I will shift to 60/40 or so for the first few years.  I'll also have a paid off home before I fire.  Honestly if my home is paid off and not at risk of being taken away from not making the monthly mortgage payments, I can survive some pretty damn lean years. 

And no, I'm not paying off my mortgage early - I'm plowing all my $$ into stocks/bonds and will pay off the mortgage in full once I have my FIRE # plus an additional $350k (balance of my mortgage). 

These are things I wouldn't even know about if it weren't for this forum.  But now, not only do I know about it, I also have very solid answers to them. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 20, 2017, 10:17:21 AM
Isn't this why it is healthy to have a diversified portfolio?  Let's assume I am at 60/40.   Let's further assume you are at 100% stocks.  A 2008 level event, a 50% drop in the market, is a 50% drop in your portfolio and a 30% drop in mine.  Sure, you get more robust growth during the good years, but I'm in my late 40s and I plan on needing the money in my early 50s, so I have less time to recover.  That's the whole point in being at 60/40 rather than 100% stocks.

The 100% stock portfolio may go into the 50% crash high enough above the 60/40 portfolio due to better growth that they still come out ahead.  That's something that needs to be considered.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 20, 2017, 10:26:32 AM
That's a fair point. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on September 20, 2017, 05:15:15 PM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Tonyahu on September 20, 2017, 05:30:53 PM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on September 20, 2017, 05:58:54 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1w8du0.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1w8du0)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on September 20, 2017, 06:41:44 PM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...
Not necessarily. Some years markets go up 30+%. Happens fairly often.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on September 20, 2017, 06:56:14 PM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...
By itself, that is meaningless because that kind of return happens frequently over that kind of period. The other issue is that OVERBOUGHT is a relative term: you must then specify what it is overbought in comparison to. Therein lies the challenge.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 20, 2017, 08:02:20 PM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...

Well I guess you better get out now :D
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on September 21, 2017, 12:15:19 AM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...
By itself, that is meaningless because that kind of return happens frequently over that kind of period. The other issue is that OVERBOUGHT is a relative term: you must then specify what it is overbought in comparison to. Therein lies the challenge.

Exactly. Right now central banks are flooding the world with money in the hope of stimulating inflation and growth, not very successfully.

There's nowhere for the cash to go so it's chasing yield. Even if there's a big sell off in the US equity market, eventually it'll have to return like the tide.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cache_Stash on September 21, 2017, 07:23:35 AM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...

This is an inexperienced comment, as well.  How much have earnings grown during the period?  Do you know without looking it up?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: PathtoFIRE on September 21, 2017, 07:53:16 AM
Exactly. Right now central banks are flooding the world with money in the hope of stimulating inflation and growth, not very successfully.

There's nowhere for the cash to go so it's chasing yield. Even if there's a big sell off in the US equity market, eventually it'll have to return like the tide.

Is it a flood, or were they just stingy with the money supply before, and no we are entering a (somewhat)  more rational age of monetary policy?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 21, 2017, 09:29:08 AM
Exactly. Right now central banks are flooding the world with money in the hope of stimulating inflation and growth, not very successfully.

There's nowhere for the cash to go so it's chasing yield. Even if there's a big sell off in the US equity market, eventually it'll have to return like the tide.

Is it a flood, or were they just stingy with the money supply before, and no we are entering a (somewhat)  more rational age of monetary policy?

Don't you know, any and all changes that result in positive returns are actually BAD and are the forebear of DOOM!!!!  TOP IS IN!!!! 

[/sarcasm]
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on September 21, 2017, 09:44:25 AM
Top esta en.
Top est en.
В верхней части
الأعلى في
顶部在
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on September 21, 2017, 10:59:24 AM
Exactly. Right now central banks are flooding the world with money in the hope of stimulating inflation and growth, not very successfully.

There's nowhere for the cash to go so it's chasing yield. Even if there's a big sell off in the US equity market, eventually it'll have to return like the tide.

Is it a flood, or were they just stingy with the money supply before, and no we are entering a (somewhat)  more rational age of monetary policy?

It's only rational if inflation is going to be lower than it had been from here on out.  I think interest rates will have to go back up, but I have no idea when it will happen or how it will play out.  I'm not Warren Buffett.  I don't have the expertise, time, patience, and resources to outthink millions of other folks.  I'm just going to keep riding on their coat tails and buy at the prices they set.  The top won't really be in until the world ends anyway.  (Looks like that will be Saturday, though). 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mies on September 21, 2017, 11:30:01 AM
Top esta en.
Top est en.
В верхней части
الأعلى في
顶部在

So what are you trying to say here?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on September 21, 2017, 10:30:02 PM
Read an article quoting Robert Schiller today. It was mentioned that the market is up 22% since Election Day. So it would take an 18% drop just to take us back to Election Day levels.

Man I am young and inexperienced but if that doesn't scream OVERBOUGHT I don't know what does...
By itself, that is meaningless because that kind of return happens frequently over that kind of period. The other issue is that OVERBOUGHT is a relative term: you must then specify what it is overbought in comparison to. Therein lies the challenge.

Exactly. Right now central banks are flooding the world with money in the hope of stimulating inflation and growth, not very successfully.

There's nowhere for the cash to go so it's chasing yield. Even if there's a big sell off in the US equity market, eventually it'll have to return like the tide.

I understand the U.S. central bank is starting to sell the securities it purchased during the years of quantitative easing, which i think is the opposite of flooding the world with money.  Granted, i don't think they have really started yet, and perhaps other central banks are doing the opposite.  I do know why the Fed is selling its securities though, it's because they know the TOP IS IN, and they are getting out while the getting is good.  Which brings me to my main point:  I don't like the "almost serious" turn this thread is taking here.  If we're not careful, this thread could devolve into some kind of intelligent discussion.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 22, 2017, 05:12:10 AM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

mrpercentage, is that you?

I still think this is the best response!  The more I watch this thread I think aspiringnomad might have hit the nail on the thread. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 22, 2017, 08:23:15 AM
I understand the U.S. central bank is starting to sell the securities it purchased during the years of quantitative easing, which i think is the opposite of flooding the world with money.

They bought bonds. They are not selling anything. They just planing in the future to let the bonds expire and not buy more bonds to replace them. The plan is being rolled out slowly so that markets don't get freaked out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on September 22, 2017, 10:24:48 AM
I understand the U.S. central bank is starting to sell the securities it purchased during the years of quantitative easing, which i think is the opposite of flooding the world with money.

They bought bonds. They are not selling anything. They just planing in the future. To let the bonds expire and not buy more bonds to replace them. The plan is being rolled out slowly so that markets don't get freaked out.

I see, i knew it was bonds, but i thought they were actually going to start selling some.

So you're saying the TOP IS IN on bonds, instead of the S&P500?  Makes sense, bond yields are still pretty low right now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on September 22, 2017, 10:30:16 AM
All tops are in.  We are at the top of the top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on September 22, 2017, 02:04:41 PM
Do you ever just stare at the ticker, mentally willing it to go higher? Not that I do that. #askingforafriend
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on September 22, 2017, 03:45:16 PM
Top o' the top to ya!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: secondcor521 on September 22, 2017, 03:53:28 PM
Top of the muffin to ya!

https://lovelace-media.imgix.net/uploads/501/ca9c21b0-b6d2-0132-9a56-0e01949ad350.jpg?w=740&h=555&fit=crop&crop=faces&auto=format&q=70
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 22, 2017, 07:58:52 PM
The top really was in.

When Trump fired Yellen. And replaced her with a crank, Kevin Warsh, an anti-inflationer, who cranked up interest rates. The recession began, the markets tanked. There's no end in sight until he is replaced in 4 years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/yellens-stock-rises-as-she-leads-fed-from-crisis-era-policy-idUSKCN1BW2LT
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/20/federal-reserve-chair-warsh-kevin-242901
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on September 22, 2017, 11:22:28 PM
The top really was in.

When Trump fired Yellen. And replaced her with a crank, Kevin Warsh, an anti-inflationer, who cranked up interest rates. The recession began, the markets tanked. There's no end in sight until he is replaced in 4 years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/yellens-stock-rises-as-she-leads-fed-from-crisis-era-policy-idUSKCN1BW2LT
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/20/federal-reserve-chair-warsh-kevin-242901

Oh god if only that wasn't too close to being possible  David AA!

And when he then put us back on the gold standard things got super crazy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Paul der Krake on September 23, 2017, 12:48:24 PM
And when he then put us back on the gold standard things got super crazy.
Breaking: White House to announce the immediate dissolution of the Federal Reserve, to be replaced by the ICO Committee for TrumpCoin, the newest and greatest cryptocurrency slated to replace the Dollar. Individuals familiar with the transition plan say that the new currency will be pegged at the price of a Signature Suite at a rotating selection of Trump Hotels.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on September 23, 2017, 02:37:28 PM
The top really was in.

When Trump fired Yellen. And replaced her with a crank, Kevin Warsh, an anti-inflationer, who cranked up interest rates. The recession began, the markets tanked. There's no end in sight until he is replaced in 4 years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/yellens-stock-rises-as-she-leads-fed-from-crisis-era-policy-idUSKCN1BW2LT
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/20/federal-reserve-chair-warsh-kevin-242901

I know more than one person that are counting for it to happen, oh man that would be the run and crash of our generation. We would make millions, no, tens of millions off the deplorables. Truly a president we deserve! High-five!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 23, 2017, 08:25:39 PM
And when he then put us back on the gold standard things got super crazy.
Breaking: White House to announce the immediate dissolution of the Federal Reserve, to be replaced by the ICO Committee for TrumpCoin, the newest and greatest cryptocurrency slated to replace the Dollar. Individuals familiar with the transition plan say that the new currency will be pegged at the price of a Signature Suite at a rotating selection of Trump Hotels.

I'm genuinely amazed that Trump hasn't already tried to do this.  (in Donald Trump voice) "TrumpCoin is the greatest money ever created.  Really great.  Terrific.  People love TrumpCoin.  Everybody tells me it's the greatest.  We're replacing the corrupt globalist American Dollar with a great new money that puts Me.. er I mean America first.  Really Terrific, thank you." 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on September 24, 2017, 06:41:05 AM
Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.
https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/donate-to-help-democrats-today
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 24, 2017, 07:29:42 AM
Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.

Because he didn't F-up Obama's policies too much and wreck the stock market? I'm not sure I see the point? Because as I recall a Republican left the markets in tatters and Obama inherited the ruins and turned it around in a huge bull market. Now Trump gets far less accomplished than anyone expected and hasn't achieved the carnage in the markets folks feared because we are basically still running on Obama's steam. That's nothing I would get to proud of if I was a Trump fan.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on September 24, 2017, 01:01:26 PM
Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.
https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/donate-to-help-democrats-today

There are two camps of "investors": those that bought into "Trump Trade" bs and those that know better.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKQfT0XV4AEufAb.jpg:large

And for the record, I am a hateful person in general, I look down on people. To me, people exist to make me money. But God Emperor Trump is clearly beyond me in every way.

He commanded the Storm (Irma) to pivot at the last moment and preserved the South White House we all came to love and worship.

He commanded the Earth to rise up (earthquake at nuke site) beneath the young "Rocket Man" to teach him a lesson.

He will soon rain Fire (as he vowed FIRE AND FURY) on his enemies and the families of his enemies.

Storm, Earth, and Fire. The power of Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3qwcxLIzvM

*edit: apparently I had mistaken Harvey for Irma
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: theolympians on September 24, 2017, 01:11:52 PM
Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.
https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/donate-to-help-democrats-today
+1
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 24, 2017, 02:01:05 PM
Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.
https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/donate-to-help-democrats-today
+1

Presidents should not be judged by what happens to the economy at the beginning of their term, but rather the state of the economy at the end. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on September 24, 2017, 02:47:23 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on September 24, 2017, 03:08:59 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

 Just trying to get Hillary some funding for her next campaign!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 24, 2017, 03:10:53 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: theolympians on September 24, 2017, 07:13:59 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1
LOL!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 24, 2017, 07:43:47 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1
LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on September 24, 2017, 08:02:06 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1
LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

Oddly enough, I think that was the point of the video infographic (don't know what we're calling this, uh, style of journalism). It's not really clear, but CNBC seems to be pointing out that his Dow prediction is actually bearish, without providing the CAGR context that you provided, and yet Buffet proclaims he is very bullish about the country long-term. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 24, 2017, 08:22:02 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1
LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

Nah, he's an optimist.  He just uses conservative numbers when making a bold prediction.  Also, I think he mentioned in an article I read that 1M was the minimum, and that he expects it to be higher.  Also, he expects not to be around to find out if he's right or not
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: boarder42 on September 25, 2017, 01:59:12 PM
Can we keep this thread on topic please? This thread is about the Top being in and how the market can only go down from here.

Of course, we all know the markets can go nowhere but down, never mind Warren Buffett recently predicted the Dow will be over 1M in 100 years, it's time to sell everything, short stocks and climb into the fallout shelters. 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/warren-buffett-predicts-the-dow-will-hit-1-million.html?play=1
LOL!

The Dow hitting 1 million over the next hundred years only equates to a CAGR of 3.89% per year (based on today's close of 22,349.59).  The US market has never done that poorly for periods of even 20 years, much less 100 years.

More realistic, I think, is that the Dow will continue to return 5-7% over long time periods, like it always has, and will easily break ten million while generating millions more in dividends.  Compound interest is an amazing thing. 

Buffet is apparently a pessimist.

 

these were my exact thoughts.  what an incredibly low projection!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: moof on September 25, 2017, 05:48:16 PM
Trump haters should be willing to donate all this years gains to the democrat party.
https://my.democrats.org/page/contribute/donate-to-help-democrats-today
+1

Presidents should not be judged by what happens to the economy at the beginning of their term, but rather the state of the economy at the end.
+1.  As much as you can hate or love him, Trump has had very little effect on the economy so far.

Obama got a lot of flack for high deficits, but he got handed an economy in free fall.  There was no kink in the "curve" on the day he came into office, nor was there a kink in the curve for Trump.  Presidents should probably get judged from about 6-12 months after coming into office until 4 or 8 years later to be properly fair.  Even then there needs to be context around whether they inherited a booming economy, which makes a recession more likely, or inherited a depressed economy where a boom is likely around the corner.  Obama's growth numbers ended up looking better in part because of the disaster he started with, just as W's numbers sucked in part because he inherited the tail end of the 90's boom as it fizzled (then effed it up further).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Paul der Krake on September 25, 2017, 07:06:21 PM
Presidents indeed have very little immediate impact. Their largest contribution is nominating the people who actually have the tools to shape the economy, who do what they can with the situation at hand. They don't get any recognition from the general public but the Bernanke-Geithner-Paulson trio went above and beyond what can be expected of their respective roles given the circumstances.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on September 26, 2017, 11:20:32 AM
I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on September 26, 2017, 03:58:01 PM
I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

Completely true.  I think it's because there is not one single person to blame.  Also people seem forget about all the other elected officials aside from the president.  Even with a senatorial election going on here today nobody is talking about it. 

That being said most of the economy doesn't even have all that much to do with politics at all.  Presidents and the government in general take all the credit or get all the blame for an economy that they really didn't have anything to do with.

And a lot of times when politics affect the economy it's years down the road.  Reagan, Clinton, W, and the congress members from those eras may have more to do with our current economy that Obama or Trump. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 26, 2017, 05:55:20 PM


That being said most of the economy doesn't even have all that much to do with politics at all.  Presidents and the government in general take all the credit or get all the blame for an economy that they really didn't have anything to do with.


I don't agree with that because if the government didn't step in during the financial crisis of 2009 to help the financial markets, various industries, and provide stimulus, I'm not sure we would have recovered as far as we have.  I give Obama and the Democrats the credit for helping stabilize the economy. George W Bush to his credit did also help to bail out the banks to aid in the recovery, although I fault the Bush administration for the permissiveness of banking regulation that led to the crisis in the first place.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: kendallf on September 26, 2017, 07:07:49 PM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

On April 11, 2017 the S&P 500 was at 2353.  Today it closed at 2501.  That's only 6% gain since Thorstach called the top.  Close enough?   :-)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 26, 2017, 07:49:45 PM
I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

Congress only has a 16% approval rating at the moment, so i'd say most of us aren't forgetting how much they suck
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: RWD on September 26, 2017, 08:01:50 PM
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

On April 11, 2017 the S&P 500 was at 2353.  Today it closed at 2501.  That's only 6% gain since Thorstach called the top.  Close enough?   :-)

Plus dividends. So ~7%.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on September 26, 2017, 08:03:27 PM
I still don't understand why Congress doesn't get more credit (and blame) for the economy, at least in comparison to the President.

Considering they're responsible for all appropriations and laws, they have a much larger say in it.

Congress only has a 16% approval rating at the moment, so i'd say most of us aren't forgetting how much they suck

16% approval rating but a re-election rate of ~90%. Why? Because only other peoples' congresspeople suck.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on September 26, 2017, 08:10:26 PM
Some other fun facts:

The turnover of members of the United States Congress has averaged ~5% per election in the last 100 years.

The turnover of the Chinese Central Committee and Politburo has consistently averaged over 50% per 5 year term.




Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on September 26, 2017, 09:47:56 PM
Bouncy Cat thinks this thread has gotten boring.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/IZKuUgbb8g0Yo/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 26, 2017, 11:49:35 PM
Clearly we need another top quick..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wingfold2001 on September 27, 2017, 04:52:01 AM
What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on September 27, 2017, 05:46:25 AM
wingfold2001 is either a troll or a godsend!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 27, 2017, 06:19:18 AM


That being said most of the economy doesn't even have all that much to do with politics at all.  Presidents and the government in general take all the credit or get all the blame for an economy that they really didn't have anything to do with.


I don't agree with that because if the government didn't step in during the financial crisis of 2009 to help the financial markets, various industries, and provide stimulus, I'm not sure we would have recovered as far as we have.  I give Obama and the Democrats the credit for helping stabilize the economy. George W Bush to his credit did also help to bail out the banks to aid in the recovery, although I fault the Bush administration for the permissiveness of banking regulation that led to the crisis in the first place.

The feds just admitted that the QE that they did from 2008 - 2014 didn't work.  All it did was boost the stock market.  Well duhhhh because they were buying.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 27, 2017, 06:25:36 AM
What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

If you're worried then you can do dollar cost averaging into your portfolio slowly over time.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on September 27, 2017, 09:24:42 AM
What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

Invest in penny candies.  Not only will you avoid the inevitable crash, but you'll have a house sized quantity of non-perishable food stored up for the coming zombie apocalypse.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on September 27, 2017, 10:49:55 AM
Today's market headlines suggest that four consecutive down days on the Dow must herald the coming financial apocalypse.

I expect thorstach to resurface any moment now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on September 27, 2017, 10:55:02 AM
What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.

Invest in penny candies.  Not only will you avoid the inevitable crash, but you'll have a house sized quantity of non-perishable food stored up for the coming zombie apocalypse.

This strategy provides a great inflation hedge as well.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: moof on September 27, 2017, 10:55:59 AM
What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.
If investing extra money will exceed your risk tolerance, you have the WRONG asset allocation.  Revisit what your appropriate asset allocation is, and adjust your WHOLE portfolio to match.

My final asset allocation is aimed at being less aggressive than what I have today, as I get closer to my number I am slowly adjusting to that new target.   Put another way, money that I am pretty sure I will not need in the next 5-10 years is all in stocks.  Money I will need within that 5-10 years is in bond funds, and money I need next year is in cash.  My target asset allocation falls right out (85/15/1 today, 70/25/5 by time I hit my number).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on September 27, 2017, 11:18:53 AM
Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on September 27, 2017, 11:23:40 AM
Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

 That's it? I can do that standing on my tip toes. Or is that toe tips?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on September 27, 2017, 11:27:32 AM
toe tops.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 27, 2017, 12:10:51 PM
Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

4 to 8 percent?  Haha, thats nothing.  People seriously freak out over something like that? 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: markbike528CBX on September 27, 2017, 01:54:28 PM
Top is in.  All down hill from here.  CNBC said so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/wells-fargo-sees-trouble--brace-for-a-4-percent-to-8-percent-slide-in-stocks.html

4 to 8 percent?  Haha, thats nothing.  People seriously freak out over something like that?

8 percent is 5 times my current (small, remaining) mortgage.  Dang, why did I just think of it like that :-(
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 27, 2017, 02:28:46 PM
Well the market did well today, especially the small caps - going up 2% in one day, with mid caps going up almost 1%
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 27, 2017, 02:31:35 PM
Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wingfold2001 on September 27, 2017, 09:28:34 PM
What should I do with all this cash?

I sold a house and am sitting on enough cash to double my investment portfolio.

The market is so hot that I'm hesitant to invest right now; because if I exceed my risk tolerance, it could lead to emotional decision making.
If investing extra money will exceed your risk tolerance, you have the WRONG asset allocation.  Revisit what your appropriate asset allocation is, and adjust your WHOLE portfolio to match.

My final asset allocation is aimed at being less aggressive than what I have today, as I get closer to my number I am slowly adjusting to that new target.   Put another way, money that I am pretty sure I will not need in the next 5-10 years is all in stocks.  Money I will need within that 5-10 years is in bond funds, and money I need next year is in cash.  My target asset allocation falls right out (85/15/1 today, 70/25/5 by time I hit my number).

Got, thanks for the hard numbers. That's very similar to what my adviser said. It's a funny feeling to act rationally per sound advice when my instinct is to do something else. My current allocation is 85/15... in goes the cash! Ass clench mode activated.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on September 28, 2017, 05:58:50 PM
Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 28, 2017, 08:11:48 PM
Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

You're right.. of course it was today..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on September 29, 2017, 09:37:26 AM
Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

Wrong again. New (intraday) top today. Surely the top is really in this time though.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on September 29, 2017, 10:22:03 AM
Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

Wrong again. New (intraday) top today. Surely the top is really in this time though.

Oh man... what are we going to do if the top is never in??? Like... what if the long term trend of the market is up..... woah...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on September 29, 2017, 10:22:30 AM
Once you top, you can't stop. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on September 29, 2017, 10:30:25 AM
Yup S&P 500.. New top..:)

Nope.  It's today.  Today was the top.  It's just so damn obvious!

Wrong again. New (intraday) top today. Surely the top is really in this time though.

Oh man... what are we going to do if the top is never in??? Like... what if the long term trend of the market is up..... woah...

Mind...blown.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 29, 2017, 10:34:54 AM
My prediction.. When the Trump tax reform bill is shown to be a bunch of hot air then we will see a significant pullback and maybe the start of the next bear market.

Early next year the recession will start..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on September 29, 2017, 11:08:33 AM
Don't top believin'
Hold on to the feelin'
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on September 29, 2017, 12:10:34 PM
Don't top believin'
Hold on to the feelin'

Wall Street People
Don't stop believin'
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on September 29, 2017, 12:28:52 PM
Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Payin' anything to roll the dice
Just one more time
Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues
Oh, the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on and on

-Journey, from the album Escape

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Finances_With_Purpose on September 29, 2017, 02:01:17 PM
My prediction.. When the Trump tax reform bill is shown to be a bunch of hot air then we will see a significant pullback and maybe the start of the next bear market.

Early next year the recession will start..:)

Yeah, I don't like wandering into predictions, but that's exactly my call too. 

He may well be betting on tax cuts to postpone or forestall a recession - I am speculating here, but that could be why tax cuts came out of nowhere as a huge priority.  He had advisers who know a recession is likely, and that that's probably their best bet to delay or minimize it.

That's my current theory, anyway. 

Then again, we could both be wrong and there's simply a longstanding "Trump bump."  Who knows. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Eric on September 29, 2017, 02:05:08 PM
My prediction.. When the Trump tax reform bill is shown to be a bunch of hot air then we will see a significant pullback and maybe the start of the next bear market.

Early next year the recession will start..:)

Yeah, I don't like wandering into predictions, but that's exactly my call too. 

He may well be betting on tax cuts to postpone or forestall a recession - I am speculating here, but that could be why tax cuts came out of nowhere as a huge priority.  He had advisers who know a recession is likely, and that that's probably their best bet to delay or minimize it.

That's my current theory, anyway. 

Then again, we could both be wrong and there's simply a longstanding "Trump bump."  Who knows.

I think the reason is much more mundane.  They couldn't pass healthcare reform.  Trump's being embroiled in scandal after scandal.  He needs a win.  Rebublicans love tax cuts.  Therefore, it's important to pass this now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on September 29, 2017, 02:07:08 PM
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on September 29, 2017, 02:21:16 PM
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ixtap on September 29, 2017, 02:33:01 PM
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

Which is why next year would be perfect for us: we could ride the dip to our number, then be optimistic about sequence of returns when we do retire.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 29, 2017, 03:13:55 PM
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

Which is why next year would be perfect for us: we could ride the dip to our number, then be optimistic about sequence of returns when we do retire.

For us we are at 2.5 * our number.. not that we ever really had a number, it just sort of happened.. So we can afford a comparitively spendypants lifestyle. If the big crash comes we can easily ride it out until we can live on steak/lobster and travel business class all over the World again*


* Not that we ever have cus I'm far too cheap.. But heck if we end up at 5* our number I doubt we'll ever see an economy class airline seat ever again..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on September 29, 2017, 03:14:33 PM
And.. the TOP IS IN..again..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: secondcor521 on September 29, 2017, 05:20:13 PM
I am speculating here, but that could be why tax cuts came out of nowhere as a huge priority.  He had advisers who know a recession is likely, and that that's probably their best bet to delay or minimize it.

Trump and the Republicans have been talking about tax cuts as one of their top several priorities since at least election night, and I'm pretty sure Trump talked about it frequently on the campaign trail as well.  It has bubbled to the top since they were unable to pass any health care changes.

"Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:  1.  Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate."  (http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days, dated 2016-11-09)

Trump cabinet members are currently predicting 3%+ GDP growth as far as the eye can see.  The Federal Reserve - none of whom are Trump appointees as far as I know - is also predicting modest growth for the indefinite future:  "The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further."  (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170614a.htm)

That all being said, it would not surprise me if we have a stock market correction soon.  In other words, the top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dividendman on October 02, 2017, 01:48:24 PM
Sigh, new top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 02, 2017, 01:51:29 PM
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 02, 2017, 02:36:26 PM
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

No, he called the top... at the bottom.  Or at least called a top at a bottom.  Either way, our TOP priority should be to get to the BOTTOM of this TOP, otherwise this thread won't STOP.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: obstinate on October 02, 2017, 02:50:11 PM
TOP (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/fed-chair-favorite-warsh-believes-central-bank-is-slave-of-the-sp.html)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 02, 2017, 03:04:13 PM
TOP (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/fed-chair-favorite-warsh-believes-central-bank-is-slave-of-the-sp.html)

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 02, 2017, 03:23:50 PM
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

Well its still an inflexion point so still pretty impressive..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: obstinate on October 02, 2017, 03:30:33 PM
TOP (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/fed-chair-favorite-warsh-believes-central-bank-is-slave-of-the-sp.html)

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.
I kinda do. But also I know that I'm a dumbass, so I'm just gonna keep buying and holding.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on October 02, 2017, 11:17:27 PM
TOP (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/fed-chair-favorite-warsh-believes-central-bank-is-slave-of-the-sp.html)

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.

Yep. Hopefully Yellen will hold in there...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: wienerdog on October 03, 2017, 07:47:28 AM
New top is in.  Chickens are off the roost with reserves to come.  VIX in a Triple Lindy that Thorton would be proud of.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on October 03, 2017, 08:58:45 AM
This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

This thread should be used as a lesson in not timing the market.

At this point, a correction (10% or more) would bring you close to when the "top was in."

That's a pretty insane prospect. While we could certainly have a recession in the next year, a correction is much more likely.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on October 03, 2017, 09:00:44 AM
While we could certainly have a recession in the next year, a correction is much more likely.

So . . . you're calling the top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 03, 2017, 09:30:17 AM
Top will be in today!

The bigger question.. What will I do about it?... Answer.. Nothing..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 03, 2017, 10:28:06 AM
Top will be in today!

The bigger question.. What will I do about it?... Answer.. Nothing..:)

Awesome.  And perfect.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farfromfire on October 03, 2017, 11:17:29 AM
Today in technical analysis: (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charting-a-fourth-quarter-breakout-sp-500-confirms-bull-trend-2017-10-03-121032528)
Quote
The prevailing upturn punctuates a bull flag pinned to the early-September breakout.
Uh huh
Quote
Tactically, an intermediate-term S&P 500 target continues to project to the 2,550 area.

Conversely, the former range top (2,508) pivots to near-term support, and is followed by a firmer floor matching the 2,480 breakout point, and the 50-day moving average, currently 2,475. The S&P’s intermediate-term uptrend is firmly intact barring a violation.
makes sense
Quote
Moving to specific names, Dow 30 component Intel Corp. INTC, +1.54%  has taken flight. (Yield = 2.8%.)
Technically, the shares have knifed from a modified head-and-shoulders bottom, a pattern defined by the May, July and August lows.
How did I miss that?!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 03, 2017, 11:43:55 AM
Unrelated to the stock market, the top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on October 03, 2017, 11:45:15 AM
Top != Tip
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on October 03, 2017, 11:51:34 AM
Top != Tip

(https://longwhitekid.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/tip-top-moggy-man-sandwich-board-sign-400-dpi-a3-size-copy.jpg)

Are you sure?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on October 03, 2017, 11:58:05 AM
So . . . you're calling the top?

Absolutely not. Just pointing out that a correction, which is a pretty significant event, would still only bring us down to the levels the market was at a year ago. Heck, even a major recession only likely takes us to 2015/2016 levels or so.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 03, 2017, 12:30:11 PM
Top != Tip

True. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top,_bottom_and_versatile
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 03, 2017, 01:07:28 PM
Top != Tip

True. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top,_bottom_and_versatile

Top is in . . . and out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 03, 2017, 01:54:36 PM
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday, later this month.  Who is scared?

Not me, I'll be riding the next correction all the way down.  I'm kind of hoping it happens sooner rather than later, but I'll be passively invested in the index all throughout either way.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: techwiz on October 03, 2017, 02:07:39 PM
Quote
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday

I was not scared until I looked it up, Black Monday October 19, 1987 and we are also coming up on the 88 years anniversary Black Thursday on October 24, Black Monday and Black Tuesday October 28 and October 29, 1929. October can be a scary month ,but I will not be changing my long term investment plan just because an anniversary or Halloween is coming.




Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on October 03, 2017, 02:09:51 PM
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Timodeus on October 03, 2017, 03:02:07 PM
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on October 03, 2017, 03:03:24 PM
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

Well, whatever. Top Red Dow, or something.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on October 03, 2017, 03:03:54 PM
It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

I read a Tom Clancy financial thriller about that once...it was called Hunt for Red OcTOPer!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Aegishjalmur on October 03, 2017, 03:18:31 PM
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.


You know what else is in November? Guy Fawkes Night.

"Remember, remember, the 5th of November
 The Gunpowder Treason and plot;
 I know of no reason why Gunpowder Treason
 Should ever be The Top."


So I guess the top won't be in on the 5th.....

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bobechs on October 03, 2017, 04:11:00 PM
22646.32

This is it.  The Top.  There is no question whatever that this line can go in one and only one direction from  this point-down.

It is simple physics.

(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DJIA&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=8&rand=733157613&compidx=&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 03, 2017, 11:10:15 PM
Can someone tell me when the top will be in? I need to harvest some gains before the end of the year (but ideally after October 15).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ZiziPB on October 04, 2017, 04:53:18 AM
Can someone tell me when the top will be in? I need to harvest some gains before the end of the year (but ideally after October 15).

+1
Yeah, can you guys stop playing around and tell us when the real top will be in? 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 04, 2017, 10:16:27 AM
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ZiziPB on October 04, 2017, 10:20:17 AM
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 04, 2017, 10:47:08 AM
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

Hah wouldn't we all.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 04, 2017, 11:03:39 AM
I will tell you the real top for 2017 . . . next year.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: kendallf on October 04, 2017, 11:51:04 AM
One day old lottery tickets for sale, half price!  Only one less chance in 100,000,000 to win!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on October 04, 2017, 09:19:25 PM
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

The 2017 TOP will be when Trump fails to reconfirm Yellen and appoints Walsh as head of the Fed so about 1-2 weeks away.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 05, 2017, 05:03:37 AM
So . . . you're calling the top?

Absolutely not. Just pointing out that a correction, which is a pretty significant event, would still only bring us down to the levels the market was at a year ago. Heck, even a major recession only likely takes us to 2015/2016 levels or so.

Just have it wait long enough for my in-kind transfer of VTI to Merrill Edge so that I can harvest a free $500.* I'm not far over the threshold...


*Net $500. Going to get paid $600 into the IRAs after 90 days, but there will be $100 in closure fees whenever I end up closing the accounts. Plus a bunch of benefits from Bank of America Preferred Rewards. Like turning my 2% back @ Costco card into a 3.5% back at Costco card...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 05, 2017, 05:08:04 AM
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

100 years?  Sean Connery sure has a long lifespan!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 05, 2017, 08:34:11 AM
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farmecologist on October 05, 2017, 08:54:12 AM

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugalnacho on October 05, 2017, 09:06:36 AM
It's not gonnna stop, it's never gonna stop!

https://youtu.be/2bjC-VMUhIs?t=81
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 05, 2017, 09:31:46 AM
If I knew for sure a correction was coming and I knew for sure when it was coming, I could time the market.  I don't know, so I can't time the market.

I thought we were headed for a massive crash on Nov. 9, 2016, because HOLY SHIT THE USA JUST FUCKING ELECTED DONALD TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It didn't crash.  I know nothing.  Keep Calm and Carry On.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on October 05, 2017, 09:38:41 AM
If you would, please give me one days notice before the market top,
so I can start selling the day of the top.
                              Thanks
 P.S. if you could make it the top in VTSAX that would be helpful.
 While I'm here, the top will be a close of today.

  Maybe.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sirdoug007 on October 05, 2017, 10:38:16 AM
Quote
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday

I was not scared until I looked it up, Black Monday October 19, 1987 and we are also coming up on the 88 years anniversary Black Thursday on October 24, Black Monday and Black Tuesday October 28 and October 29, 1929. October can be a scary month ,but I will not be changing my long term investment plan just because an anniversary or Halloween is coming.

You didn't even mention Friday the 13th coming in 8 days!!!  Oh btw, S&P500 at $2,550.  Top is in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 05, 2017, 10:44:16 AM
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

I've been saying it feels like we're living in Nineteen Ninety-Seventeen with all the 90's music and fashion coming back around.  It looks like outrageous PE ratios are back in vogue too. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 05, 2017, 10:56:14 AM
2016 sure felt a lot like 1996.  Clinton running for president, Independence Day hitting movie theatres, The X Files back on TV etc
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on October 05, 2017, 11:20:40 AM
2016 sure felt a lot like 1996.  Clinton running for president, Independence Day hitting movie theatres, The X Files back on TV etc


PLEASE tell me that baggy jeans will make a comeback!  I've got four pairs from the early 2000s in my closet just waiting for fashion to correct itself.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 05, 2017, 11:35:24 AM
Apparently ripped jeans made a comeback, but only for young people.  I popped into an "American Eagle" and 1) it looked like the second coming of George Michael, and 2) everybody was 20 years younger than me.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: fattest_foot on October 05, 2017, 12:00:58 PM
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

I've been saying it feels like we're living in Nineteen Ninety-Seventeen with all the 90's music and fashion coming back around.  It looks like outrageous PE ratios are back in vogue too.

Good ole 19917. I remember it like it was yesterday...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on October 05, 2017, 03:52:09 PM
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dycker1978 on October 05, 2017, 03:58:27 PM
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

Are we there yet?  (Said like a whiny 4 year old on a family road trip)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on October 05, 2017, 06:14:23 PM
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

If only thorstach the technical wizard stuck around to let us know.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 05, 2017, 07:27:30 PM
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

If only thorstach the technical wizard stuck around to let us know.

Thorstach typically calls the top after several consecutive days of market declines, not on days when the index is up.  He's essentially betting on short term momentum.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 05, 2017, 08:19:10 PM
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

If only thorstach the technical wizard stuck around to let us know.

Thorstach typically calls the top after several consecutive days of market declines, not on days when the index is up.  He's essentially betting on short term momentum.

Betting and losing - haha.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on October 06, 2017, 12:13:47 AM

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

This time it's different.  We've moved permanently to a higher plateau.  ;-)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Caoineag on October 06, 2017, 07:29:01 AM

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

If its any consolation, I do sort of expect a correction in the next year. It just changes nothing for me. In fact, if the last 10% drop is any indication, I will blink and it will be over.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Comar on October 06, 2017, 09:28:23 AM
HOLD!
https://youtu.be/iDVuQi4gdtk
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on October 06, 2017, 09:35:09 AM
HOLD!
https://youtu.be/iDVuQi4gdtk

Ha ha! Which one was Thorstache?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bobechs on October 06, 2017, 10:10:28 AM
Okay, yesterday's close 2277.65

At this moment, -35.77.

So, the corner is turned, top is in, time to bail is right now
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 06, 2017, 10:20:59 AM
No, the time to bail was yesterday.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on October 06, 2017, 10:22:01 AM
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Comar on October 06, 2017, 10:28:15 AM
HOLD!
https://youtu.be/iDVuQi4gdtk

Ha ha! Which one was Thorstache?
He ran, and he lived... at least a while. And dying in his bed, many years from now, would he be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our employers that they may take our jobs, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 06, 2017, 10:51:41 AM
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

Just terrible. All the way back down to where the market (VTI) was yesterday morning.

The horror! Top was in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 06, 2017, 12:28:04 PM
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Today is always the time to get back in.  (Unless it's a weekend, of course.  Or a holiday.  Or your internet is down.)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 06, 2017, 08:17:07 PM
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Today is always the time to get back in.  (Unless it's a weekend, of course.  Or a holiday.  Or your internet is down.)

After hours trading is UP to a new high for VTI. It's the after-hours fake high that PROVES the top is in, and the market is going down.

I swear, this thread has made me check the stock market more in the past month than I did in the prior decade.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 06, 2017, 10:17:20 PM
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Today is always the time to get back in.  (Unless it's a weekend, of course.  Or a holiday.  Or your internet is down.)

After hours trading is UP to a new high for VTI. It's the after-hours fake high that PROVES the top is in, and the market is going down.

I swear, this thread has made me check the stock market more in the past month than I did in the prior decade.

+1.  I check the stock prices app on my phone WAY more than I should, not because I care if it goes up or down, but because I know if the slightest movement occurs this thread will light up with "Top is in!" Jokes.  Can't miss a good dead cat bounce, now can we?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 07, 2017, 11:37:47 AM
Agreed.. I check it almost every hour now instead of just once per day..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: availablelight on October 07, 2017, 02:12:34 PM
Apparently ripped jeans made a comeback, but only for young people.  I popped into an "American Eagle" and 1) it looked like the second coming of George Michael, and 2) everybody was 20 years younger than me.

Pre-ripped jeans are dumb on so many levels, not least that if you insisted on ripped jeans you could just go down to the thrift store, get some cheap jeans, and rip them.  They'd probably look more authentically "destroyed" too, and everyone loves "authenticity", right?

(Of course I know that if you'd do that, you probably wouldn't be the kind of person to wear pre-ripped jeans, that you're really paying for the brand, etc., etc., ad nauseum)

I hope the top is in on ripped jeans.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ender on October 07, 2017, 02:17:23 PM
The amusing part is if the market drops 10% next week people will start gloating about "see, we were RIGHT!" and forget that the market is still up this year...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 07, 2017, 10:03:34 PM
I swear, this thread has made me check the stock market more in the past month than I did in the prior decade.
+1.  I check the stock prices app on my phone WAY more than I should, not because I care if it goes up or down, but because I know if the slightest movement occurs this thread will light up with "Top is in!" Jokes.  Can't miss a good dead cat bounce, now can we?
Agreed.. I check it almost every hour now instead of just once per day..:)
I literally never checked the S&P in my entire life until April 2017. Now I check it at least twice every market day. Thanks thorstache.

On that note, this week ended on a confirmed downtrend...
(https://i.imgflip.com/1x8e1j.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1x8e1j)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 08, 2017, 01:37:17 PM
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 08, 2017, 02:37:34 PM
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

You poor large cap guys. Top was in. :D

Here I am in VTI, and Friday was an UP day! And more in the aftermarket!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 08, 2017, 05:29:27 PM
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

You poor large cap guys. Top was in. :D

Here I am in VTI, and Friday was an UP day! And more in the aftermarket!

But Friday the DOW dropped 0.01% so i'm pretty sure we're f#$%ed
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 09, 2017, 07:04:14 AM
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

My stash made money Friday lol
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farmecologist on October 09, 2017, 07:40:14 AM

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

If its any consolation, I do sort of expect a correction in the next year. It just changes nothing for me. In fact, if the last 10% drop is any indication, I will blink and it will be over.

Correct...I don't expect anything like the crash of '08 either.  Of course, nobody expected anything that bad back then either.  ;-)

'Normal' corrections are OK....because people typically keep their jobs, etc...  The problem in '08-'09 was that many,many people lost their homes/jobs and could not continue to invest at the low point.  Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 09, 2017, 12:12:07 PM
Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Trump is appointing anti-regulation fed reserve board governors as we are sitting here and reading.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 09, 2017, 01:10:39 PM
Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Trump is appointing anti-regulation fed reserve board governors as we are sitting here and reading.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  Or, as I like to say: Those who DO learn from history are doomed to watch other people repeat it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farmecologist on October 09, 2017, 02:40:09 PM
Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Trump is appointing anti-regulation fed reserve board governors as we are sitting here and reading.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  Or, as I like to say: Those who DO learn from history are doomed to watch other people repeat it.


Yes...DavidAnnArbor hence my 'that is debatable' quip.  ;-)

I agree with you  tyort1...I'm seeing an awful lot of people that 'have not learned from history' around here lately!  Lots of people with 'the toys' that clearly cannot afford it.

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 09, 2017, 02:44:24 PM
I guess we have to embrace the volatility, like a piece of seaweed floating on the ocean surface.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 09, 2017, 04:44:51 PM
Volatility, going up and down like foam on the waves....

The Top is in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 09, 2017, 09:46:09 PM
Yup.. top was last Thursday..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Paul der Krake on October 09, 2017, 09:56:20 PM
I'm rolling over about $50k from an IRA to a 401(k). The check was cut about 10 days ago and I've been seeing the market go up and up and up. If it could please crash back down before the receiving company cashes it that'd be awesome.

So everybody please call your least favorite relatives and tell them to sell everything.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: rpr on October 10, 2017, 02:16:03 AM
Top was in of the SP 500 on October 9th ................






........... of 2007 ;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on October 10, 2017, 12:44:58 PM
Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on October 10, 2017, 12:51:39 PM
Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

So . . . you're calling the top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on October 10, 2017, 12:54:59 PM
Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

So . . . you're calling the top?

NAY!But soon-ish.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 10, 2017, 01:05:42 PM
I kind of hope there is a drop soon, so all the pundits and armchair experts will just shut up about it. 

Naaahhh, they'll never shut up.......
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: farmecologist on October 10, 2017, 01:17:43 PM
I kind of hope there is a drop soon, so all the pundits and armchair experts will just shut up about it. 

Naaahhh, they'll never shut up.......

Nobody will shut up around here!  ;-)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ixtap on October 10, 2017, 01:18:52 PM
I kind of hope there is a drop soon, so all the pundits and armchair experts will just shut up about it. 

Naaahhh, they'll never shut up.......

Nobody will shut up around here!  ;-)

We have a whole round of "told you so"s to look forward to!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on October 10, 2017, 01:53:08 PM
Don't take me for some conjurer of cheap tricks! I am not trying to help you! I am trying to rob you!

my calls had been pretty on point so far, let's see if I continue to get lucky.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on October 10, 2017, 02:12:46 PM
Anisotrophy I'll be your minion anytime you want.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 10, 2017, 02:16:09 PM
Is THIS the new top??
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 10, 2017, 04:23:43 PM
DOW doesn't count..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 10, 2017, 04:28:55 PM
"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed)

Globally growth is gaining, not slowing. That's why the stock market is gaining the most in the international sector and in those parts of the US market that have international exposure, that, and the falling dollar. The emerging market is doing even better than international developed. SP 500 is doing better than US small cap.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on October 10, 2017, 09:20:04 PM
Glad to see someone else sharing the belief that econ and market move together.

I was mostly referring to the great US&A in April, aka the source of all that's greattm and wonderful peopletm, the best reallytm. And frankly, it is the only one that matters as far as broad market timing is concerned.

Sing with me: "America! America! lalalalala!"

Yes, globally (outside of USA) growth had been gaining, personally I feel it could last a few more quarters but I don't know without seeing the data. It makes great sense that the global growth would be accelerating after the usa growth rate had slowed. After all, it's like dropping a pebble in a pond, causing a wave propagation. Capitals chase profits, starting with lower risk assets and move further and further towards the higher risk end, that's how the cycles work. With the "peak growth" occurred in late 2014 in the States, I am guessing we are somewhere later in the cycle than many people think. Note, I am not calling the top yet.

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 11, 2017, 06:50:35 AM
DOW doesn't count..:)

Still an end-of-session high for the S&P 500 I believe.  Doesn't really matter though haha.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 11, 2017, 01:59:30 PM
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 11, 2017, 01:59:44 PM
New tops.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 11, 2017, 02:49:24 PM
"Top is in."  Oh, I am sorry, sir, I didn't mean to overstep my bounds.  You say that.

What?

"Top is in."

It is?

No, you say that, Governor.

What?

"Top is in."

It is?

Here sir, play with this.

Oh thank you Hedey.

No it's HEDLEY!

It is?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 11, 2017, 02:53:13 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/zfthj.jpg)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 11, 2017, 07:05:01 PM
Well CLEARLY that was the top.. again!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 11, 2017, 07:23:54 PM
The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DS on October 12, 2017, 09:35:11 AM
My barber told me the top was in yesterday so I immediately sold everything and bought gold bricks. Spending today burying them at various locations (geo-arbitrage). Glad I got that tip and was able to see the highest the market would ever go.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 12, 2017, 10:18:09 AM
My barber told me the top was in yesterday so I immediately sold everything and bought gold bricks. Spending today burying them at various locations (geo-arbitrage). Glad I got that tip and was able to see the highest the market would ever go.

Clearly your barber has a keen grasp on market and economic fundamentals as represented by things like CAPE.  Good call! 

Personally I consult the incredibly sage advice of the Random Financial Advice Generator - https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

Today's advice is:

In sequential-pay markets, plan to cover lump-sum conduits.

and

The smart investor this season will be sure not to leverage credit-linked liability structures.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: anisotropy on October 12, 2017, 11:52:14 AM
The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

hi, who were these five?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: intellectsucks on October 12, 2017, 12:33:23 PM
Haven’t contributed to this thread yet, but every $100k of your stache has grown by about $8000 since this thread started.  Hope no one listened to any of the doomsayers and pulled money out.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: With This Herring on October 12, 2017, 03:40:14 PM
I would like to sincerely thank Thorstache.  This thread finally gave me the push I needed in August to invest the last of my funds (maybe 1/4 or so of my stache) that had been sitting in cash as I scolded others for market timing.  No, none of these cash funds were from a selling stocks, just savings that hadn't yet been invested.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 12, 2017, 03:42:04 PM
wait, i wasn't paying attention - is the top now?  NOW?  .... how about now?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 12, 2017, 04:04:45 PM
Naah.. it was yesterday
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 13, 2017, 05:22:08 AM
The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

Well, I'll be fine with it. My transfer to a new brokerage went through, so I'll get the signup bonus unless the market drops >25% in the next few months.

Even then, it would just be an annoyance. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on October 13, 2017, 06:55:33 AM
We're clearly topless.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on October 13, 2017, 08:34:10 AM
We're clearly topless.

Nope it just came in. Top is currently in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on October 13, 2017, 11:42:50 AM
We're clearly topless.

Nope it just came in. Top is currently in.
They just keep coming though, like infinite tops. Or topless perhaps, as a synonym. Lol
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 13, 2017, 12:59:53 PM
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on October 13, 2017, 01:02:47 PM
I want to gate crash that party
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 13, 2017, 01:45:13 PM
Bottom!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on October 13, 2017, 02:41:20 PM
HELP ME, I'M ON TOP AND DUNNO HOW TO STOP! 
(I hope this thread never dies.)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 13, 2017, 02:45:28 PM
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aboatguy on October 14, 2017, 10:26:51 AM
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

However, the market may drop 50% soon...... leaving only a 252% increase.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 14, 2017, 11:15:31 AM
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

However, the market may drop 50% soon...... leaving only a 252% increase.

Gosh your right it may.. But.. if you have been buying all along (I actually started investing in 97) then some of that stock was bought in the depths of the great recession. So buying all along has added up to way more than the 504%

I'm at least 2* FI so I might sell everything...;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: theolympians on October 14, 2017, 11:23:13 AM
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

I am a little behind. How would a trade re-negotiation send havoc throughout the world. I see these doomsday headlines all the time. Trade deals are not set in stone, nor are they commandments from on high.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: theolympians on October 14, 2017, 11:33:01 AM
As to the "administration ruining the economy" I don't see the evidence for that. OTOH, I am worried about the republicans dragging their feet on tax reform; and its effect on long term growth, or at least perceived growth. They can't seem to get anything together, and are more intent on shooting each other in the back.....I won't go on.

The top may be in!!!!!! LOL!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 14, 2017, 01:52:58 PM
As to the "administration ruining the economy" I don't see the evidence for that. OTOH, I am worried about the republicans dragging their feet on tax reform; and its effect on long term growth, or at least perceived growth. They can't seem to get anything together, and are more intent on shooting each other in the back.....I won't go on.

The top may be in!!!!!! LOL!

Not to get political but #45 tweeted today bragging about tanking healthcare stocks like it was a good thing...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 16, 2017, 05:14:19 AM
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

I am a little behind. How would a trade re-negotiation send havoc throughout the world. I see these doomsday headlines all the time. Trade deals are not set in stone, nor are they commandments from on high.

I have 2 words for you.   Supply Chain
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Elderwood17 on October 16, 2017, 10:59:43 AM
This is among my favorite threads!  It reinforces how little I understand about market tops, market lows, overdue corrections and all the other things my most verbal relatives keep blathering about. 

For some odd reason the market just doesn't care what my Uncle Joe thinks......
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 16, 2017, 12:45:22 PM
For some odd reason the market just doesn't care what my Uncle Joe thinks......

Uncle Joe, in his time, could very well have influenced the market.

(http://www.haciendapub.com/sites/default/files/GoodOldUncleJoe.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 16, 2017, 01:02:06 PM
Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 16, 2017, 01:30:58 PM
Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .
You mean quit Stalin'?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 16, 2017, 01:53:24 PM
Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .
You mean quit Stalin'?

You don't quit Stalin.  Stalin quits you.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Inaya on October 16, 2017, 01:56:16 PM
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kalergie on October 16, 2017, 02:01:21 PM
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.
Tell her to buy Bitcoin! It’s so hot right now!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on October 16, 2017, 02:01:51 PM
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

This might be the best evidence yet.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on October 16, 2017, 02:04:47 PM
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 16, 2017, 02:05:45 PM
I called the top today. And by called the top, I mean harvested long term capital gains on all my 2016 taxable purchases of US stocks.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 16, 2017, 03:57:52 PM
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

My mother-in-law can be an occasional PITA, but if yours can crash the stock market, that's impressive.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 16, 2017, 05:06:01 PM
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

My mother-in-law can be an occasional PITA, but if yours can crash the stock market, that's impressive.

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 16, 2017, 05:24:58 PM

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

Problem is, that period can last for months or even years.  Or to reference Keynes (supposedly): The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 16, 2017, 07:39:05 PM

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

Problem is, that period can last for months or even years.  Or to reference Keynes (supposedly): The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Oh sure.  I wasn't saying I agreed with it, just that it was referencing a discussion up-thread.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on October 16, 2017, 10:35:08 PM
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.

Well, maybe there is a box of matches very close at hand, but none have sparked yet.

The hopes (and pricing) are big on global growth. Let’s hope.

I saw on tv yesterday some commentators were talking about “rolling corrections”, with individual stocks, or even sectors, realizing corrections but not the whole market at the same time. The resultant rise in the Market we are seeing is therefore already post corrections and we will indeed be topless for the near future.

The analysts were extremely bullish. As it is the same Analysts that were bearish 12 months ago, I think there is a warning here. Probably not a great time to buy into the hype. There is hype.

..... but as I have no willingness to sit on cash, I’ll just have to stick to the game plan and ride this out. Maybe the hype will have been warranted.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: mjr on October 16, 2017, 11:26:34 PM
This is the fun part of the ride, Itchyfeet.  Enjoy it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 17, 2017, 07:52:32 AM
I have no doubt there will be a substantial correction in the future.  I just don't know when.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: StarBright on October 17, 2017, 07:58:16 AM
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.


I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: afuera on October 17, 2017, 08:19:24 AM
We have put a pause on our investing because we a rebuilding our entire house after it flooded so we are staying pretty cash heavy for the short-term.  The insurance check should cover all the contractor bills but we are keeping a cash cushion just in case. I feel like a crazy market timer having this much cash sitting around.  I just want to throw it all in the market but we might actually need this cash for you know, spending.   I'm actually hoping for a dip soon because once this whole mess is finished in a few months, we should have a pretty big stockpile of cash to invest and it would be nice if there was a sale.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 17, 2017, 08:25:08 AM
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.


Another indicator...two friends who have never talked money/investments, mentioned to me at a dinner this weekend about how excited they are about X stock and one met with a financial adviser.  Uh oh.

I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 17, 2017, 08:41:51 AM
I'm actually hoping for a dip soon because once this whole mess is finished in a few months, we should have a pretty big stockpile of cash to invest and it would be nice if there was a sale.

I have every dollar of mine in the market, and I too am hoping for a dip so that my next paycheck will buy stock at a cheaper price.

In other words, every single one of us in the accumulation phase should be cheering for a dip, regardless how much we have in the market currently.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on October 17, 2017, 09:10:21 AM
Dow 23,000 the top is, well, by now you know the rest of the story!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 17, 2017, 11:27:14 AM
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 17, 2017, 11:50:49 AM
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

If you take a short term view, dips are awful to live through.  If you take the long term view, they are just blips even if it takes a few years to recover from them. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 17, 2017, 12:05:16 PM
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.



Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 17, 2017, 01:38:31 PM
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

Come on now.  Did you have to go and get all rational on us?  Such a buzz kill.  :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 17, 2017, 02:01:55 PM
Everyone but NASDAQ gets a new top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 17, 2017, 02:03:11 PM
Come on now.  Did you have to go and get all rational on us?  Such a buzz kill.  :)

Ha, sorry about that.  And to be clear, my post wasn't intended to be critical of Dougules at all.  Just highlighted a point that I thought was important with all these "market top" posts.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: techwiz on October 17, 2017, 02:23:37 PM
DOW hit 23,000 for the first time today.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on October 17, 2017, 02:52:34 PM
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ender on October 17, 2017, 05:16:12 PM
DOW hit 23,000 for the first time today.

definitely going to crash tomorrow and we'll loose millions from our wallets
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 17, 2017, 07:28:48 PM
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

I meant that "Anybody now could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997."  The S&P 500 may have been 600, but the CAPE blew through 25 which is pretty high.  But you're making the exact same point I'm making that the market never went back down to that level even though anybody now could tell you that we were already in a classic bubble with two major crashes on the way. 

Are we in a bubble now?  There's a good chance.  Should you do anything different? No. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tpac on October 17, 2017, 09:45:12 PM
US top is in. Exchanged all remaining US equities (VTSMX) for ex-US (VGTSX).

DOM/DEV/EME correlation YTD might as well be 1, but ex-US equities are significantly cheaper relative to historical valuations.

THE TOP IS IN !!!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 17, 2017, 11:33:50 PM
The thing about 1997-2000 is the implied yield of the S&P by either dividends or CAPE10 was 2-4%. At the same time, expected real bond returns were 3-5% or higher. You could make a good case then that the 30 year 4% TIPS bond would outperform the S&P with a CAPE of 40.

Now, bonds are set for a real return of 0-1%, while US stocks should be looking at 3-4%. It's hard to make a case now that things are overvalued, instead of just higher than they used to be. You can say that ex-US should do better going forward (I am investing as if it is a good chance) but that is not certain. The problem with saying something is "overvalued" is that is a relative term, and you must then define what will be better. It doesn't seem obvious to me what the better choice is.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Kaspian on October 18, 2017, 09:43:04 AM
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on?  (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.)  When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off.  "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in".  :)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on October 18, 2017, 10:54:38 AM
The thing about 1997-2000 is the implied yield of the S&P by either dividends or CAPE10 was 2-4%. At the same time, expected real bond returns were 3-5% or higher. You could make a good case then that the 30 year 4% TIPS bond would outperform the S&P with a CAPE of 40.

Now, bonds are set for a real return of 0-1%, while US stocks should be looking at 3-4%. It's hard to make a case now that things are overvalued, instead of just higher than they used to be. You can say that ex-US should do better going forward (I am investing as if it is a good chance) but that is not certain. The problem with saying something is "overvalued" is that is a relative term, and you must then define what will be better. It doesn't seem obvious to me what the better choice is.

I totally agree.  The numbers now, though, seem to say the market thinks that interest rates are going to stay low a long time more.  If interest rates went up to anything close to normal levels any time soon, either the market would have to crash, or earnings would have to catch on fire to make any sense.  I hope it's the 3rd option. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bacchi on October 18, 2017, 10:55:36 AM
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on?  (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.)  When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off.  "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in".  :)

Having lived through the dot bomb, it was obvious that the top was in when even the person cutting my hair was asking about internet stocks.

We also saw this with house flipping in 2005-2006. Everyone and their father wanted to flip houses and become a millionaire.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: secondcor521 on October 18, 2017, 11:55:25 AM
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on?  (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.)  When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off.  "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in".  :)

Having lived through the dot bomb, it was obvious that the top was in when even the person cutting my hair was asking about internet stocks.

We also saw this with house flipping in 2005-2006. Everyone and their father wanted to flip houses and become a millionaire.

I wonder though how many data points indicate that the top is in.  I don't think we are there yet but it seems to be starting to arrive.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 18, 2017, 12:27:21 PM
Are we feeling frothy rich yet ?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 18, 2017, 01:41:40 PM
Are we feeling frothy rich yet ?

I'm feeling pretty comfortably well off. Sad its probably all a mirage.. well until after the next crash at least...;)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on October 18, 2017, 01:44:47 PM
Topless, I'm tellin' ya. Topless! Like a Saturn V leaving the atmosphere. :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 18, 2017, 01:53:39 PM
Topless, I'm tellin' ya. Topless! Like a Saturn V leaving the atmosphere. :)

Umm.. as your really not my type I'll pass....:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: kendallf on October 18, 2017, 02:11:48 PM
I've been looking at Z06s online.  Just an indicator, but a strong one..
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 18, 2017, 06:34:35 PM
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.


I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).

I was! But that's because '99 cured me of the individual stock thing....

Doesn't matter. Market can drop 25% and I'll still get my sweet transfer bonus :D
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 20, 2017, 08:14:02 AM
Well, in the "Irrational Exuberance" folder we can add this:

It’s cool again to invest’: Americans are giddy about stocks as Dow tops 23,000 (link (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/10/20/americans-are-giddy-about-stocks-again-as-dow-tops-23000/?hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news&utm_term=.01bef71aa66b))

We're seeing just about every asset class rise lately: Stocks, commodities, land, even bitcoin. It's usually a sign investors are getting overly hyped and aren't separating out the best investment opportunities from the “meh” ones.

full disclosure: I'm committed to continue my 'buy and hold index funds' approach, speculation be damned. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 20, 2017, 12:17:33 PM
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 20, 2017, 01:32:11 PM
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!
really?  over the challenger?  I mean if we're being all blingy and irresponsible and and all...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 01:40:59 PM
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 20, 2017, 01:51:48 PM
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!
really?  over the challenger?  I mean if we're being all blingy and irresponsible and and all...

I was jonesing for the Charger (after the asshole ran his Challenger into the anti white supremicist demonstrators I was DEFINITELY over the Challenger).. But I changed my mind.. The 300 more fits "my image"..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 20, 2017, 02:07:46 PM
THIS is the top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 02:25:00 PM
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

(http://cdn-9chat-fun.9cache.com/media/photo/amZaklpA3_480w_v1.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on October 20, 2017, 02:36:10 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1xz15c.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1xz15c) (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 20, 2017, 03:37:17 PM
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly?  A dream?

It's too bad financial pundits are never held accountable for their stock or market calls.
Anchor -  "Here's Jimmy - he's called the market top 11 times over the last 36 months but each time he's been wrong.  So jimmy, what's the market look like to you?"
Jimmy - "THE TOP IS IN!!!"
Anchor - "interesting.  Well, sooner or later you're bound to be right.  Next up, a cat wearing a shark costume riding a roomba chasing a duck"
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 04:11:34 PM
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly?  A dream?

(https://i.imgflip.com/1xzbmf.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1xzbmf)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 20, 2017, 04:37:00 PM
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly?  A dream?

(https://i.imgflip.com/1xzbmf.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1xzbmf)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 05:22:15 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1xzh81.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1xzh81)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on October 20, 2017, 05:33:42 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1xzhrx.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1xzhrx)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 05:55:43 PM
(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/500x/80599503/ive-seen-things-you-people-wouldnt-believe-attack-ships-on-fire-the-top-of-the-market-all-those-mome.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 20, 2017, 08:00:17 PM
I think we've finally got this thread back on track
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 20, 2017, 08:17:33 PM
In the car today on a landlord run, I heard a radio commercial for a FREE SEMINAR to learn a SECRET METHOD to make GUARANTEED INCOME by buying and FLIPPING HOUSES with OTHER PEOPLE's MONEY.

It's not a stock market top, but it sure does feel like a strong indicator that we're back into irrational exuberance in the local real estate market.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: RecoveringCarClown on October 20, 2017, 08:43:31 PM
That garbage has been on the radio for many years in my neck of the woods.

Oh yeah, and top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on October 20, 2017, 09:42:25 PM
(http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/b4/b44ebb07885d7de03e7f05c5299076136815135736b422461b42c0592d71292d.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: h82goslw on October 21, 2017, 06:02:13 AM
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

The Hellcat is so yesterday....the Demon is the latest and greatest bad ass car.  840 hp and the track package for $1. Car runs 9.xx in 1/4 mile.  And I agree, that Grand Cherokee is hot.

 I’ve been looking at Z06s online also.  Heavily modified ones because I have the extra cash now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 21, 2017, 06:25:35 AM
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

The Hellcat is so yesterday....the Demon is the latest and greatest bad ass car.  840 hp and the track package for $1. Car runs 9.xx in 1/4 mile.  And I agree, that Grand Cherokee is hot.

 I’ve been looking at Z06s online also.  Heavily modified ones because I have the extra cash now.

dear god please tell me you are kidding.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 23, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Well looks like Friday was the top.. Goldman Sacks warning of the end of the bull market.. Yup we're done now.

No more "build your car" fantasy for me..:)

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 23, 2017, 12:24:09 PM
No more "build your car" fantasy for me..:)

Funny, my irrational exuberance fantasy was "put new siding on my house".
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on October 23, 2017, 12:30:07 PM
Why not both?

(http://www.cantparkthere.com/pictures/House_Car.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 23, 2017, 12:33:07 PM
Why not both?

(http://www.cantparkthere.com/pictures/House_Car.jpg)

Damn I got to get me one of those..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 23, 2017, 01:19:19 PM
The top was in but I missed it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 23, 2017, 01:43:59 PM
The top was in but I missed it.
don't worry, another one will be along shortly...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: thorstach on October 23, 2017, 02:09:20 PM
Top is in
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 23, 2017, 02:14:55 PM
Thorstach re-emerges??

(https://media.giphy.com/media/5wpCNjjGzV9a8/200.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 23, 2017, 02:17:58 PM
Top is in

(https://img.memecdn.com/bettlejuice-betelgeuse-beatlejuice_o_488787.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 23, 2017, 02:26:44 PM
Top is in. Top is in. Top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Fire2025 on October 23, 2017, 02:27:25 PM
This is my all time favorite thread!!!!!!!!!!!!  Wow, talk about back by popular demand!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 23, 2017, 02:36:03 PM
Top is in

S&P 500 is up 8.97% since your OP.

NASDAQ is up 12.27% since your OP.

You lose.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 23, 2017, 02:44:47 PM
Intra-day top I guess.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on October 23, 2017, 02:55:36 PM
Top is in

S&P 500 is up 8.97% since your OP.

NASDAQ is up 12.27% since your OP.

You lose.

Have you not been playing along?  Every new call of the top automatically negates all of the previous calls of the top.  If you call the top every day, one day you will be (temporarily) correct.

So the real genius in thostach's thread isn't in the days he calls the top, it's in all of the days he doesn't.  Just look at all of the tops we've passed since he last called the top!  It takes real market insight to NOT call the top at any of those false tops.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 23, 2017, 03:16:26 PM
Top is in . . . on the Bitcoin market.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 23, 2017, 04:20:16 PM
Top is in

Bottom is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on October 23, 2017, 06:11:22 PM
Thorstach thank god you came back! Tell us why the top is in now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 23, 2017, 08:24:11 PM
Thorstach thank god you came back! Tell us why the top is in now.

+1
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Rufus.T.Firefly on October 23, 2017, 09:33:53 PM
I'm beginning to think Thorstach is just another member moonlighting as an amateur stock analyst for our amusement. Either way, thank you Thorstach. Best thread on the forum for a while now.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on October 23, 2017, 11:00:06 PM
I'm beginning to think Thorstach is just another member moonlighting as an amateur stock analyst for our amusement. Either way, thank you Thorstach. Best thread on the forum for a while now.

Maybe thorstach is our market timing id trying to undermine our buy and hold ego.

(https://i.imgflip.com/1y57hp.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1y57hp) (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on October 24, 2017, 05:09:14 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1y5jyx.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1y5jyx)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 24, 2017, 08:30:25 AM
Clearly the top is in
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on October 24, 2017, 08:35:08 AM
Clearly the top is in

chortlesnort
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ZiziPB on October 24, 2017, 10:41:50 AM
Are we there yet?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: bobechs on October 24, 2017, 11:15:33 AM
Are we there yet?

Yes, top is in.... now!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: frugledoc on October 24, 2017, 11:35:41 AM
The top is in, on the street
Inside your head, on every beat
And the beat's so loud, deep inside
The pressure's high, just to stay alive
'Cause the top is in

Oh-wo-ho, oh-wo-ho
Caught up in the action I've been looking out for you
Oh-wo-ho, oh-wo-ho
(Tell me can you feel it)
(Tell me can you feel it)
(Tell me can you feel it)
The top is in, the top is in, the top is in,
Oh it's on the street, the TOP IS IN!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 24, 2017, 11:36:41 AM
The top of the market is in and has been in since before i started the thread. The top being the march 1st all time high which remains unbroken.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: marielle on October 24, 2017, 11:40:32 AM
Wait but wasn't Friday the top? Why didn't you call it on Friday!?

I DIDN'T SELL! What am I going to do now?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: afuera on October 24, 2017, 12:14:14 PM
I'm showing SPY red and top still in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 24, 2017, 12:18:46 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1y6ean.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1y6ean)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 24, 2017, 12:19:34 PM
Are we there yet?

Yes, top is in.... now!

Top is gone

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 24, 2017, 10:25:53 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/d2wjXs8.png)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on October 24, 2017, 10:27:55 PM
Thorstach thank god you came back! Tell us why the top is in now.
+1
People who agree with other people in this thread should add the word "Tops" after. Also, we should go sequentially starting from you.

+2 Tops
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 24, 2017, 10:46:31 PM
Thorstach thank god you came back! Tell us why the top is in now.
+1
People who agree with other people in this thread should add the word "Tops" after. Also, we should go sequentially starting from you.

+2 Tops

I'm down. 

+1 Tops +2 Tops
+ Red Tops + Blue Tops

Wait, that can't be right
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: talltexan on October 25, 2017, 12:30:41 PM
We're down for today. I've been hoping the top wasn't in, yet, as I still wanted to do some buying, but now all my limit orders are hitting!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 25, 2017, 02:06:12 PM
Wait, did I miss it?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 25, 2017, 06:50:05 PM
Fraid so.. I think we may have had it this time.

Till next time of course.. Will that be next week or 4 years from now?

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: powskier on October 25, 2017, 11:14:08 PM
Sold everything.

Please let me know when "the bottom is in" thread begins. Thanks.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr Mark on October 25, 2017, 11:38:57 PM
Sold everything.

Please let me know when "the bottom is in" thread begins. Thanks.

+1
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TornWonder on October 26, 2017, 07:58:26 AM
Sold everything.

Please let me know when "the bottom is in" thread begins. Thanks.

Looks like yesterday was the bottom.  New top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 26, 2017, 02:44:39 PM
You should have told me before it was in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 26, 2017, 05:16:05 PM
Well Amazon, Alphabet and Intel announced blowout earnings after the bell.. Maybe tomorrow a new top?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 26, 2017, 09:46:04 PM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1ybz2n.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1ybz2n)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Green on October 27, 2017, 05:48:03 AM
Top knot? Oops! Wrong top not.
(http://machohairstyles.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Sorrel-Colored-Hair-with-Top-Knot-650x650.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Rufus.T.Firefly on October 27, 2017, 09:15:42 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1ycu3q.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1ycu3q)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous market timing predicutions
Or to take arms against a sea of foolish prognostications,
And by opposing end them.
To buy high - to sell low - no more;
And by this to say we end the heartache
through simple buy and hold investing practices
ay, there's the rub!
For in that dreams of early retirement may come true
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on October 27, 2017, 09:49:36 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/1ycx21.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1ycx21)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on October 27, 2017, 09:55:24 AM
Huh.  Seems the SP500 just hit a new top.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 27, 2017, 10:34:18 AM
Well gee after I SOLD everything just yesterday too.. Ooops I guess I forgot to complete the sell order..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 27, 2017, 10:40:49 AM
Well gee after I SOLD everything just yesterday too.. Ooops I guess I forgot to complete the sell order..:)

Don't you just hate it when that happens?  Happens to me every day.  :)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on October 27, 2017, 10:46:40 AM
(https://media.tenor.com/images/547dd012248e33a998b8a00ed9e179f7/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on October 27, 2017, 12:34:02 PM
That last one is kind of disturbing for some reason.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 27, 2017, 01:54:13 PM
Fraid so.. I think we may have had it this time.

Till next time of course.. Will that be next week or 4 years from now?

2 days, in fact.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on October 27, 2017, 02:01:41 PM
Top is in

Bless your heart.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Exflyboy on October 27, 2017, 02:09:35 PM
Do we hear a S&P500 at 2600 for next week?..

I've probably "topped it" right there..:)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: TomTX on October 27, 2017, 03:56:37 PM
Gosh, this thread keeps getting me to check VTI charts. Like, at least every week!  Madness!

I guess the good part is that I found out I gained more in the market today than my salary for the week...
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on October 27, 2017, 04:49:05 PM
Gosh, this thread keeps getting me to check VTI charts. Like, at least every week!  Madness!

I guess the good part is that I found out I gained more in the market today than my salary for the week...

Yup. Markets are in full crush mode.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 27, 2017, 06:08:04 PM
Top is in

So, basically, thorstach is the stimulus package!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: itchyfeet on October 27, 2017, 09:28:41 PM
Top is in

So, basically, thorstach is the stimulus package!

Indeed, however, one day he/ she/ they will stop calling the top, they will go 100% equity with max leveraged margin loans..... and then......

.....then....

Well who the frig knows, the market might keep climbing.

Best just not try and time the market. Monthly salary this week will be deployed as per normal.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 30, 2017, 10:34:12 AM
New top for TSX, haven't been able to say that for a long while
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: acroy on October 31, 2017, 12:06:06 PM
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

Some interesting points.
The majority of my portfolio remains 'mindless' index funds. My own 'thoughtfully-chosen' investments have outperformed S&P by a few %, not hugely.

Over a longer term it will be interesting if there is a return to mean for market cap vs. GDP and a number of the other 'stretched' valuation indicators. I think it is 'different this time' to an extent due to the global CB activity including artificially low interest rates and equity/debt purchases....
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cycling Stache on October 31, 2017, 12:18:27 PM
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

Please let me know when the stretch of all-new-tops will resume, and I'll get back in.

P.S.  Thorstache, you're a total jerk for not calling the high Friday so I could get out and avoid these losses!

P.S.S.  My international stocks are at an all-time high, so I'm not sure what to do about that.  Have we been calling international tops, too?  Le top?

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on October 31, 2017, 12:45:24 PM
I think it is 'different this time'....

It's not.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tpac on November 01, 2017, 01:56:11 AM
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.

Please let me know when the stretch of all-new-tops will resume, and I'll get back in.

P.S.  Thorstache, you're a total jerk for not calling the high Friday so I could get out and avoid these losses!

P.S.S.  My international stocks are at an all-time high, so I'm not sure what to do about that.  Have we been calling international tops, too?  Le top?

I'll gamble the international top won't come until 2030. The international top is... not in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Radagast on November 01, 2017, 02:11:38 PM
I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.
+3 Tops
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on November 01, 2017, 02:21:46 PM
+3 Tops

(https://www.activewild.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Triceratops.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Mr. Boh on November 01, 2017, 02:41:51 PM
"Buffett Indicator" is calling a top
https://dailyreckoning.com/buffetts-indicator-calling-tops/

Some interesting points.
The majority of my portfolio remains 'mindless' index funds. My own 'thoughtfully-chosen' investments have outperformed S&P by a few %, not hugely.

Over a longer term it will be interesting if there is a return to mean for market cap vs. GDP and a number of the other 'stretched' valuation indicators. I think it is 'different this time' to an extent due to the global CB activity including artificially low interest rates and equity/debt purchases....

This is interesting. The main question I have concerns the percentage of corporate earnings from outside the US. The five biggest companies in the market are Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon and Google (counting both GOOG and GOOGL). These companies earn a large portion of their revenues outside of the US. It doesn't completely make sense to me to compare their market cap only to US GDP.

Hopefully Mr. Buffet will chime in to clear this up for me.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on November 01, 2017, 02:43:47 PM
I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.
+3 Tops
+4 Tops
(https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.2N6DuYeEsN2R-P22Rfb6fQEsEs&pid=15.1)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: GuitarStv on November 02, 2017, 12:37:41 PM
I'm pulling out.  I was led to believe by this thread that the market always went up, but the S&P 500 has now dropped 0.2% from it's all-time high.  Total bs, and I've had enough of it.
+3 Tops
+4 Tops
(https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.2N6DuYeEsN2R-P22Rfb6fQEsEs&pid=15.1)



(https://img.discogs.com/VJJVCZOZ8dLxjJlGjnH3mJ5XYIs=/fit-in/600x593/filters:strip_icc():format(jpeg):mode_rgb():quality(90)/discogs-images/R-5962762-1410108845-8597.jpeg.jpg)

DIE FIVE TOPS, DIE DIE DIE!    :P
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: techwiz on November 02, 2017, 12:39:20 PM
Killing the 5 Tops
(http://images.45cat.com/die-five-tops-frag-doch-nur-dein-herz-trains-and-boats-and-planes-1965-2.jpg)


GuitarStv just beat me to posting this before me....
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Maenad on November 03, 2017, 07:33:19 AM
"His tattoo says 'Die Bart, Die'!"

"No no no, it's German for 'The Bart, The'!"
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DS on November 03, 2017, 08:05:10 AM
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aspiringnomad on November 03, 2017, 08:19:45 AM
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

Panning is for suckers. Just moved all my money into shovels (i.e., NVidia).
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on November 03, 2017, 10:16:20 AM
 I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: dougules on November 03, 2017, 10:32:21 AM
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on November 03, 2017, 10:35:39 AM
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that.

This made me google for the answer - I thought Hawaii was further west.  I'm wrong.  The Aleutians are further west than Hawaii, but Hawaii is further west than mainland Alaska.

Either way...  hope your wagon floats!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on November 03, 2017, 10:51:20 AM
S&P is at 2585. 

Where have you gone, Thorstache?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wu wu wu.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on November 03, 2017, 11:00:04 AM
S&P is at 2585. 

Where have you gone, Thorstache?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Wu wu wu.


Heavy nowadays
A forsaken Thorstach lost
in spite of the top

https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on November 03, 2017, 11:02:04 AM
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Stache-O-Lantern on November 03, 2017, 12:49:47 PM

Heavy nowadays
A forsaken Thorstach lost
in spite of the top

https://www.poem-generator.org.uk/haiku/

As market soars on
Thorstache is not demure, but,
Shouts, the top is in!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on November 03, 2017, 12:53:16 PM
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on November 03, 2017, 01:20:38 PM
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.

Stop ruining our pessimism with your facts!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DarkandStormy on November 03, 2017, 01:34:22 PM
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

'14 saw a dip in Sept/Oct (so did 2012)
'10 saw a dip more in August
Not really any pre-election dips in 2006
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on November 03, 2017, 02:08:31 PM
I'll paraphrase from an investment letter I receive,
 "all" of the the last 13 mid term elections have had a market decline of 7.4% to over 20%.
( anyone care to verify that)
 Then author claims
"to be optimistic that any mid-term election year pullback that develops
can be contained within the correction range of less than 20%.
 Will 2018 be different.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you thought there was high chance of a 10% to 20% decline would you move out of the stock market?

In those years?  '14, '10, '06 all had positive returns.
  Well that's a crock, if my invest letter writer can't get his facts right, how good is his advice?
They all have declines during some part of the year but all ended higher.
 I guess that's why they say. "it's time in the market not timing the market".
                                Thanks!

'14 saw a dip in Sept/Oct (so did 2012)
'10 saw a dip more in August
Not really any pre-election dips in 2006
Using the S&P, 2006 had a 3.5% dip from Jan 1 to June 13, and a 7.7% dip from market peak to trough.
 But, I think my writer was not telling the whole truth, it was more of a "hole truth" :-)
 Am I the first to coin the "hole truth" as the truth with some holes in it?
Two pages into google and I didn't find it.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on November 03, 2017, 02:54:35 PM
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4569/37437492554_53ef315107_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on November 03, 2017, 05:56:24 PM
Uncertain today
Has Thorstach become Negan?
Or he's just batty
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: the_gastropod on November 06, 2017, 12:48:50 PM
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/HWHz3Oq7EZ0/hqdefault.jpg)

I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. And I need all of you to stop what you're doing, and listen....

TOP IS IN
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on November 06, 2017, 12:58:21 PM
Oh good, I was worried for a minute.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on November 06, 2017, 03:42:07 PM
(https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fXen7FR_MUU/VaiCxcDa4bI/AAAAAAABIsw/808UlDUmCCM/s640/tumblr_lz241iw5dc1qiz3j8o1_r1_500.gif)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on November 07, 2017, 11:51:52 AM
I need to make an arbitrary and capricious post just to get my count up to 500 and get another square.  This seems to be the right thread to do that. 

Oh, and top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Optimiser on November 07, 2017, 12:19:14 PM
I need to make an arbitrary and capricious post just to get my count up to 500 and get another square.  This seems to be the right thread to do that. 

Oh, and top is in.

Oh, that's what those squares are!

Also, the top appears to have come in a few hours ago. I wish someone would have pointed it out at the time and saved me from the .3% drop.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: OurTown on November 07, 2017, 12:40:56 PM
They look like "Chiclets."
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on November 07, 2017, 12:53:19 PM
Saw this on Facebook. Reminded me of this thread.

(https://scontent.fapa1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/23319417_10155176798127677_6863119292792622180_n.jpg?oh=475f055d68d89a39a6563a810a44ed2c&oe=5A6CD50E)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on November 07, 2017, 01:30:05 PM
Top's in, moved all to cash except for a new gold pan. Wagon's loaded and headed out west.

I here Alaska is nice this time of year.  Can't get any further west than that.

This made me google for the answer - I thought Hawaii was further west.  I'm wrong.  The Aleutians are further west than Hawaii, but Hawaii is further west than mainland Alaska.

Either way...  hope your wagon floats!

Fun trivia lesson for the day. Hawaii is the southern most state in the US. Alaska is furthest North, West, and East as it crosses the international date line.

Oh, and the top is in.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Clean Shaven on November 07, 2017, 03:55:20 PM
Also, the top appears to have come in a few hours ago. I wish someone would have pointed it out at the time and saved me from the .3% drop.

(https://i.imgflip.com/1yzcb1.jpg) (https://imgflip.com/i/1yzcb1)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: secondcor521 on November 07, 2017, 06:34:29 PM
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but "Top of the Muffin to Ya!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHtWEH0euh4
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: solon on November 08, 2017, 12:23:16 PM
Man, it'd be fun to hit 2600 this week.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: aboatguy on November 08, 2017, 03:13:26 PM
2594.38 @ closing today.....   IMO top is not in......

Where's 2600????
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: sol on November 08, 2017, 03:55:05 PM
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

April 11 close: 2353.78.
Today's close: 2594.38.
Percent return over past 211 days of this thread's existence: 10.22%
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: tyort1 on November 08, 2017, 04:07:23 PM
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

April 11 close: 2353.78.
Today's close: 2594.38.
Percent return over past 211 days of this thread's existence: 10.22%

For someone like you or I, if we had been "calling the top", this type of data might make us pause and maybe reconsider our initial prediction/assumption.  But for many, many people the opposite is the case.  For them, their reasoning goes something along the lines of:

"Hmm, well the stock market was already overpriced at 2353.78 when I started this thread, and now it's all the way up to 2594.38, so now it's REALLY REALLY overpriced and TOP IS IN!"

Hahaha. 
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on November 08, 2017, 04:41:15 PM


Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...


Comedy
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: JAYSLOL on November 08, 2017, 05:12:59 PM
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top. 

A sampling of his comments on some of those days is included directly below the associated date.  All data are from finance.google.com or from this thread.

Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...


Its means..

Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ILikeDividends on November 08, 2017, 05:23:19 PM
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...
I think it proves pretty conclusively that the OP is not a broken clock; otherwise, he'd at least be right twice a day.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: Retire-Canada on November 08, 2017, 06:08:48 PM
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?

Top is in?
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: C-note on November 08, 2017, 06:13:46 PM
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: ILikeDividends on November 08, 2017, 06:18:11 PM
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.
Don't confuse me with logic.
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: BTDretire on November 08, 2017, 06:26:02 PM
Can anyone draw any conclusions from this analysis?  I'm having a hard time evaluating what this means...

That the accuracy is 100% for the given date and top - if we concede that one can have multiple tops.

 Accuracy is 100%.
You can have multiple tops!
Title: Re: Top is in
Post by: nereo on November 10, 2017, 12:58:10 PM
I took the liberty of searching this thread for all of thortstach's posts calling the top.  I put a star by each date on the S&P500 chart that he posted to call the top.