Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 812550 times)

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4550 on: June 13, 2019, 12:07:38 PM »
Purely for hysterics?

It's zerohedge.  Pure hysterics is all they do.

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4551 on: June 13, 2019, 12:12:53 PM »

And a hapless public has, of course, been gobbling up everything from Pinterest to Beyond Meat.


nom nom nom

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4552 on: June 14, 2019, 03:05:06 AM »
Purely for hysterics?

It's zerohedge.  Pure hysterics is all they do.

Yeah, in all seriousness, i've witnessed firsthand the effect Zerohedge's investment advice has had on peoples retirement accounts.  It's not pretty, but nothing compared to the effect their articles in general have on peoples overall sanity.  Internet-based doomer addiction is a real and dangerous thing, and Zerohedge is designed to exploit those who are vulnerable to it partly for the ad revenue, and party for the spreading of specific political ideology. 

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4553 on: June 14, 2019, 09:31:51 AM »
One of my co-workers today mentioned that the Andromeda galaxy is actually going to collide with our own, almost certainly obliterating our solar system and everything in it in about 4,500,000,000 years. We are all doomed! #galactictopisin

I heard that it will collide and the galaxies will merge together. There's enough space in between the stars that individual collisions are unlikely, but different gravitational forces will mix things up for another 3 billion years. Our solar system and planet will be ok, but our star charts will be out of date. Here's a simulation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4disyKG7XtU

Another video here
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/phenomena/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/

Also top is in

Right about the same time our Sun is scheduled to blow up, so maybe we'll take some of those invaders with us.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4554 on: June 14, 2019, 02:33:22 PM »
Purely for hysterics?

It's zerohedge.  Pure hysterics is all they do.

Yeah, in all seriousness, i've witnessed firsthand the effect Zerohedge's investment advice has had on peoples retirement accounts.  It's not pretty, but nothing compared to the effect their articles in general have on peoples overall sanity.  Internet-based doomer addiction is a real and dangerous thing, and Zerohedge is designed to exploit those who are vulnerable to it partly for the ad revenue, and party for the spreading of specific political ideology.

The entire financial industry (especially the media side of it) desperately hopes you forgot what they said to you just a week ago.  For some strange reason most people oblige them.

Top was yesterday. After the previous top about a month ago.

We're all doomed I tell you!

top was 18 months ago:

"Over the past eighteen months, the market has been absolutely flooded with money. In 2018, U.S. companies poured well over $1.1 trillion into buying back their own stock. In 2019, they're doing the same thing, but at an even faster pace. Central bankers around the world have managed, intervened, and blasted a firehose of cash any time the market dared descend a tenth of a percent. And a hapless public has, of course, been gobbling up everything from Pinterest to Beyond Meat.

And with all these trillions and trillions of dollars that have been hurled at the market, what has it done over the past 18 months? That's easy to answer.

Dick.

Allow me to share these major indexes in a percentage format. Kindly note that, in spite of all the wild ups and downs, and net change over these timespans have been absolutely zilch. Zero. Nothing.

Of course, in a truly organic market, God knows how much lower we would be. 30%? 50%? More? We'll never know. But in this sickeningly-contrived faux equity space that has been created for our amusement, cast your eyes upon what has, over 18 months, been an abject waste of time and energy." (good thing for the majority here that its not an organic market)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-12/road-nowhere

How can people be so wrong, for so long and still cling to bad logic like that?  It's almost like they WANT the market to crash, for some reason.

Three possibilities. 1) they have no idea what they're talking about, 2) good news doesn't sell clicks as well as bad news 3) the more you scare people, the better your chance of them hiring you to solve their problems.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 04:08:45 PM by Travis »

freedomfightergal

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4555 on: June 18, 2019, 11:48:40 AM »
Now the top is in ;)

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4556 on: June 18, 2019, 01:14:17 PM »
Yesterday for the first time ever, ex-girlfriend asked questions about investing. Great questions! Resulting in a perfectly good one hour tutorial, complete with a partial runthrough of Vanguard's signup process. She has been saving, not easy for a single mom with low-ish income, especially if raised in a culture that abhors saving and supports community gift reciprocation instead; may be legitimately poised to invest.

The rumbling you hear in the distance is the stock market gods preparing to rain down financial thunder and lightning upon us. Top...is...IN.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4557 on: June 18, 2019, 06:42:03 PM »
Now the top is in ;)

Quadruple top confirmed

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4558 on: June 19, 2019, 07:59:43 AM »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4559 on: June 19, 2019, 08:03:19 AM »
Now we’re just repeating oursivles

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4560 on: June 19, 2019, 08:03:45 AM »
Now we’re just saying the same things over again

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4561 on: June 19, 2019, 08:15:02 AM »
Peak repetition?

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4562 on: June 19, 2019, 08:36:02 AM »
Well, they say the markets are cyclical.

Wait, no. The top is in. No more cycles.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4563 on: June 19, 2019, 08:56:38 AM »
The markets could be cyclical, time will tell.
   

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4564 on: June 19, 2019, 03:23:33 PM »
We should be seeing some personal tops today..:)

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4565 on: June 19, 2019, 04:20:08 PM »
We should be seeing some personal tops today..:)

Yesterday was the personal top.  So I guess today is the topping of the top.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4566 on: June 20, 2019, 08:15:44 AM »
The top was not in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4567 on: June 20, 2019, 08:20:40 AM »
Definitely a new personal top...I guess it’s alldpwnhill from here

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4568 on: June 20, 2019, 08:48:51 AM »
Once the trade war is fixed (around this time next year is my prediction.. You know in time for the election) and we are in another full blown war with Iran.. I predict we'll have a new top around S&P = 3250.


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4569 on: June 20, 2019, 09:19:05 AM »
Once the trade war is fixed (around this time next year is my prediction.. You know in time for the election) and we are in another full blown war with Iran.. I predict we'll have a new top around S&P = 3250.

This guy definitely took my earlier advice to look at the chart upside down too far

« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 09:22:17 AM by dragoncar »

Paul der Krake

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4570 on: June 20, 2019, 09:23:11 AM »
unsubscribe

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4571 on: June 20, 2019, 09:33:53 AM »
We should be seeing some personal tops today..:)

Sounds somewhat indecent.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4572 on: June 20, 2019, 09:59:38 AM »
unsubscribe

Maybe we reached the top of subscription to this topic?  We have already loss one subscriber! 

Top subscription is in!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4573 on: June 20, 2019, 10:39:12 AM »
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Sorry, the "top is in" thread is like the mafia.  Once you're in, you're in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4574 on: June 20, 2019, 10:58:40 AM »
unsubscribe

Sorry, the "top is in" thread is like the mafia.  Once you're in, you're in.

One guy actually deleted his account to get away from the thread.  But I found him.  And I told him “hey, psst.  Top is in”

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4575 on: June 20, 2019, 11:02:16 AM »
He'll come back when the S&P drops under 1900.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4576 on: June 20, 2019, 12:03:33 PM »
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Sorry, the "top is in" thread is like the mafia.  Once you're in, you're in.

One guy actually deleted his account to get away from the thread.  But I found him.  And I told him “hey, psst.  Top is in”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S-IkWpm7TS0

Bateaux

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4577 on: June 20, 2019, 01:22:57 PM »
unsubscribe

Sorry, the "top is in" thread is like the mafia.  Once you're in, you're in.

One guy actually deleted his account to get away from the thread.  But I found him.  And I told him “hey, psst.  Top is in”

And you would!

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4578 on: June 20, 2019, 02:10:51 PM »
Top is in again!

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4579 on: June 20, 2019, 02:12:00 PM »
S&P 3,000 in sight!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4580 on: June 20, 2019, 02:24:49 PM »
S&P 3,000 in sight!

Top is in!  S&P 0 in sight. 

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4581 on: June 20, 2019, 02:27:43 PM »
On a serious note, I think I looked at the S&P 500, and from the original @thorstach post to now, there has only been one day that the market closed lower since then.  Amazing(ly wrong) call!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4582 on: June 20, 2019, 02:28:52 PM »
On a serious note, I think I looked at the S&P 500, and from the original @thorstach post to now, there has only been one day that the market closed lower since then.  Amazing(ly wrong) call!

But he could be right any day now!

freedomfightergal

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4583 on: June 20, 2019, 03:41:30 PM »
Now the top is in ;)

Facepunch, I was so wrong!!  And I delayed my regular VTI investment thinking it would surely dip, duh.

Amazing watching this rollercoaster.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4584 on: June 20, 2019, 05:19:38 PM »

jfer_rose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4585 on: June 20, 2019, 06:00:57 PM »
I'm FI, so top is super duper truly in.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4586 on: June 20, 2019, 06:25:11 PM »
today's top is in?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4587 on: June 20, 2019, 06:41:36 PM »
today's top is in?
Top is in for all eternity.  Or until tomorrow.  Whichever comes first.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4588 on: June 21, 2019, 07:33:38 AM »
Now the top is in ;)

Facepunch, I was so wrong!!  And I delayed my regular VTI investment thinking it would surely dip, duh.

Amazing watching this rollercoaster.

I considered investing my usual quarterly amount at the beginning of June instead of the end. Decided to wait until the usual time in case it dropped further... Guess I should have gone with my gut.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4589 on: June 21, 2019, 09:36:36 AM »
Eh, 20 years from now the difference between June 3 and today will be insignificant. Don't beat yourself up over it.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4590 on: June 21, 2019, 12:25:27 PM »
Eh, 20 years from now the difference between June 3 and today will be insignificant. Don't beat yourself up over it.

That is my thought process too, so I'm not actually upset with myself. Also, the amount I have scheduled for investing this quarter is only about 2% of our total portfolio so even if I timed it perfectly it is still just a drop in the bucket. Maybe a difference of $1k? Meh.

I do wonder if I should switch to monthly investments instead of quarterly. Just complicates accounting more.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4591 on: June 22, 2019, 01:25:55 AM »
Eh, 20 years from now the difference between June 3 and today will be insignificant. Don't beat yourself up over it.

While I don’t think anyone should beat themselves up over failure to time the market (what thread is this again?), a ~7% difference in starting value compounded at 7% over 20 years is like 20-30% difference in end value(all that is wrong) is Pretty big IMO
« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 10:28:38 AM by dragoncar »

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4592 on: June 22, 2019, 09:36:07 AM »
Eh, 20 years from now the difference between June 3 and today will be insignificant. Don't beat yourself up over it.

While I don’t think anyone should beat themselves up over failure to time the market (what thread is this again?), a ~7% difference in starting value compounded at 7% over 20 years is like 20-30% difference in end value.  Pretty big IMO

How do you figure?  I did the math, and decided that a 7% lower staring balance on a 7% compound growth rate always works out to exactly a 7% loss.  Look!

edit:  unless you mean the ratio of eventual deficit to initial deficit?  In that case, it's much worse than 30%.  On the 10k initial balance below, he's down $700 in year one but $2,531 in year 20.  2531/700 is like 360%!  Of course, $2,531 is chump change to someone who's been investing $10k/month for 20 years.  That person has over five million dollars at 7% per year.

« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 09:44:57 AM by sol »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4593 on: June 22, 2019, 10:29:43 AM »
Well, sure if you want to “do the math” you can disprove any crazy notion I come up with at 1 am.  But seriously, thanks for correcting me.  I don’t know what I was thinking!  Plus, not sure why I even chose to compound at a positive rate, since top is in it should be -7%

That would be wild if differences in starting value compounded like I said.  Each year you waited to start investing would, on average, reduce your end value by 30%
« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 10:36:10 AM by dragoncar »

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4594 on: June 22, 2019, 10:48:07 AM »
What if there were spooky ways of compounding, you say? Why, it's time for Interesting New Things. Quantum computing power is growing at a spooky double exponential rate.

https://www.livescience.com/65651-quantum-computers-get-scary-fast.html
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-new-law-suggests-quantum-supremacy-could-happen-this-year/

Obviously, this will disrupt markets, causing a deflationary collapse. Stock prices will decline at a double exponential rate! Top is INNNN! <--That's 22 N's, you see.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4595 on: June 22, 2019, 11:02:56 AM »
What if there were spooky ways of compounding, you say? Why, it's time for Interesting New Things. Quantum computing power is growing at a spooky double exponential rate.

https://www.livescience.com/65651-quantum-computers-get-scary-fast.html
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-new-law-suggests-quantum-supremacy-could-happen-this-year/

Obviously, this will disrupt markets, causing a deflationary collapse. Stock prices will decline at a double exponential rate! Top is INNNN! <--That's 22 N's, you see.

Top is only in for 40% of the multiverse.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4596 on: June 22, 2019, 12:28:34 PM »
Goddamit. Apparently I actually called the bottom on TSLA.

So, I like Tesla as a company - they're pushing hard for clean, desirable electric cars with a great supercharger network. Plus stationary storage, attempting self-driving, etc. Plenty of issues too - but lots of future potential.

But, I always just stick with VTI.

Stock kept going down. And down.

One day 2-3 weeks ago, I notice it at $178.97 just after market close - I consider this ridiculously low for the potential the company has. Hasn't been that low in over 2 years, and they've successfully started producing Model 3 since then. So, I have some cash in the account (~1% of my total stock) because I was lazy and after some dithering put in a limit order for $180 using all the cash.

Flagged. Merrill Edge says that it's too high above the close, do I REALLY want to do that?

*sigh* Rather than override, I repost the limit order at $179.

Next morning - stock opens above $179, order is never filled. Within a few days, it's back over $200 and is now over $220.

So, that's me calling the bottom on a stock. We'll see whether it sticks or not ;)

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4597 on: June 22, 2019, 02:28:20 PM »
Goddamit. Apparently I actually called the bottom on TSLA.

No Hail Mary's required in this case, since you didn't actually move money into an individual stock in an attempt to time the market.  You wanted to, and you somehow managed to avoid it, and that's a win.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4598 on: June 22, 2019, 02:39:12 PM »
Only 80s kids use Merrill lynch

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4599 on: June 22, 2019, 03:41:35 PM »
Only 80s kids use Merrill lynch

Pfft. I use Merril Edge, because they paid me $600 to transfer over my IRAs, I pay $0 in fees, I get 100 free trades a month (Other than dividend reinvestment back into VTI I have used zero...) - and it gets me top customer status at BoA. The primary benefit of BoA status is getting noticeably higher credit card rewards points (ie 3.5% @ Costco instead of 2%, 5.25% on gas instead of 3%, etc)

Oh wait, I am an 80s kid.