Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 128032 times)

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #850 on: September 29, 2017, 02:07:08 PM »
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #851 on: September 29, 2017, 02:21:16 PM »
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

ixtap

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #852 on: September 29, 2017, 02:33:01 PM »
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

Which is why next year would be perfect for us: we could ride the dip to our number, then be optimistic about sequence of returns when we do retire.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #853 on: September 29, 2017, 03:13:55 PM »
And don't forget that none of this really matters. When the market tanks - for whatever reason - the only appropriate response is to stay all in.

And keep buying

Which is why next year would be perfect for us: we could ride the dip to our number, then be optimistic about sequence of returns when we do retire.

For us we are at 2.5 * our number.. not that we ever really had a number, it just sort of happened.. So we can afford a comparitively spendypants lifestyle. If the big crash comes we can easily ride it out until we can live on steak/lobster and travel business class all over the World again*


* Not that we ever have cus I'm far too cheap.. But heck if we end up at 5* our number I doubt we'll ever see an economy class airline seat ever again..:)

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #854 on: September 29, 2017, 03:14:33 PM »
And.. the TOP IS IN..again..:)

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #855 on: September 29, 2017, 05:20:13 PM »
I am speculating here, but that could be why tax cuts came out of nowhere as a huge priority.  He had advisers who know a recession is likely, and that that's probably their best bet to delay or minimize it.

Trump and the Republicans have been talking about tax cuts as one of their top several priorities since at least election night, and I'm pretty sure Trump talked about it frequently on the campaign trail as well.  It has bubbled to the top since they were unable to pass any health care changes.

"Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:  1.  Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate."  (http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days, dated 2016-11-09)

Trump cabinet members are currently predicting 3%+ GDP growth as far as the eye can see.  The Federal Reserve - none of whom are Trump appointees as far as I know - is also predicting modest growth for the indefinite future:  "The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further."  (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170614a.htm)

That all being said, it would not surprise me if we have a stock market correction soon.  In other words, the top is in.
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dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #856 on: October 02, 2017, 01:48:24 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #857 on: October 02, 2017, 01:51:29 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 01:57:04 PM by sol »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #858 on: October 02, 2017, 02:36:26 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

No, he called the top... at the bottom.  Or at least called a top at a bottom.  Either way, our TOP priority should be to get to the BOTTOM of this TOP, otherwise this thread won't STOP.

obstinate

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #859 on: October 02, 2017, 02:50:11 PM »

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #860 on: October 02, 2017, 03:04:13 PM »
TOP

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #861 on: October 02, 2017, 03:23:50 PM »
Sigh, new top is in.

This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

Well its still an inflexion point so still pretty impressive..:)

obstinate

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #862 on: October 02, 2017, 03:30:33 PM »
TOP

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.
I kinda do. But also I know that I'm a dumbass, so I'm just gonna keep buying and holding.

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #863 on: October 02, 2017, 11:17:27 PM »
TOP

If Warsh becomes Fed Chair expect a recession and stock market drop. Warsh lacks the intellectual heft needed to manage monetary affairs. He misunderstood the efforts of Bernanke and Yellen to fulfill the Fed's mission of both 2% inflation target as well as low unemployment.

Yep. Hopefully Yellen will hold in there...
Mr. Mark

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #864 on: October 03, 2017, 07:47:28 AM »
New top is in.  Chickens are off the roost with reserves to come.  VIX in a Triple Lindy that Thorton would be proud of.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #865 on: October 03, 2017, 08:58:45 AM »
This thread is getting boring.  It's almost like the stock market wants to go up.

To be clear, the day after this thread was created the 500 appears to have closed at 2328.95, and then never dropped that low again on its way to an 8.5% runup since then.  It looks to me like he accidentally called the bottom.

This thread should be used as a lesson in not timing the market.

At this point, a correction (10% or more) would bring you close to when the "top was in."

That's a pretty insane prospect. While we could certainly have a recession in the next year, a correction is much more likely.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #866 on: October 03, 2017, 09:00:44 AM »
While we could certainly have a recession in the next year, a correction is much more likely.

So . . . you're calling the top?

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #867 on: October 03, 2017, 09:30:17 AM »
Top will be in today!

The bigger question.. What will I do about it?... Answer.. Nothing..:)

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #868 on: October 03, 2017, 10:28:06 AM »
Top will be in today!

The bigger question.. What will I do about it?... Answer.. Nothing..:)

Awesome.  And perfect.
Frugalite in training.

farfromfire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #869 on: October 03, 2017, 11:17:29 AM »
Today in technical analysis:
Quote
The prevailing upturn punctuates a bull flag pinned to the early-September breakout.
Uh huh
Quote
Tactically, an intermediate-term S&P 500 target continues to project to the 2,550 area.

Conversely, the former range top (2,508) pivots to near-term support, and is followed by a firmer floor matching the 2,480 breakout point, and the 50-day moving average, currently 2,475. The S&Ps intermediate-term uptrend is firmly intact barring a violation.
makes sense
Quote
Moving to specific names, Dow 30 component Intel Corp. INTC, +1.54%  has taken flight. (Yield = 2.8%.)
Technically, the shares have knifed from a modified head-and-shoulders bottom, a pattern defined by the May, July and August lows.
How did I miss that?!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #870 on: October 03, 2017, 11:43:55 AM »
Unrelated to the stock market, the top is in.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #871 on: October 03, 2017, 11:45:15 AM »
Top != Tip

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #872 on: October 03, 2017, 11:51:34 AM »

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #873 on: October 03, 2017, 11:58:05 AM »
So . . . you're calling the top?

Absolutely not. Just pointing out that a correction, which is a pretty significant event, would still only bring us down to the levels the market was at a year ago. Heck, even a major recession only likely takes us to 2015/2016 levels or so.

dougules

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OurTown

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sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #876 on: October 03, 2017, 01:54:36 PM »
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday, later this month.  Who is scared?

Not me, I'll be riding the next correction all the way down.  I'm kind of hoping it happens sooner rather than later, but I'll be passively invested in the index all throughout either way.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #877 on: October 03, 2017, 02:07:39 PM »
Quote
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday

I was not scared until I looked it up, Black Monday October 19, 1987 and we are also coming up on the 88 years anniversary Black Thursday on October 24, Black Monday and Black Tuesday October 28 and October 29, 1929. October can be a scary month ,but I will not be changing my long term investment plan just because an anniversary or Halloween is coming.




« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 02:26:14 PM by techwiz »

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #878 on: October 03, 2017, 02:09:51 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

Timodeus

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #879 on: October 03, 2017, 03:02:07 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #880 on: October 03, 2017, 03:03:24 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

Well, whatever. Top Red Dow, or something.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #881 on: October 03, 2017, 03:03:54 PM »
It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.

I read a Tom Clancy financial thriller about that once...it was called Hunt for Red OcTOPer!

Aegishjalmur

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #882 on: October 03, 2017, 03:18:31 PM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

It sounds weird, but that actually happened in November. Russia at that point used a slightly different calendar. To us in the west it happened on November 7th. That must mean the top doesn't occur until November then.


You know what else is in November? Guy Fawkes Night.

"Remember, remember, the 5th of November
 The Gunpowder Treason and plot;
 I know of no reason why Gunpowder Treason
 Should ever be The Top."


So I guess the top won't be in on the 5th.....

Plans are useless. Planning is indispensable.

bobechs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #883 on: October 03, 2017, 04:11:00 PM »
22646.32

This is it.  The Top.  There is no question whatever that this line can go in one and only one direction from  this point-down.

It is simple physics.


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #884 on: October 03, 2017, 11:10:15 PM »
Can someone tell me when the top will be in? I need to harvest some gains before the end of the year (but ideally after October 15).

ZiziPB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #885 on: October 04, 2017, 04:53:18 AM »
Can someone tell me when the top will be in? I need to harvest some gains before the end of the year (but ideally after October 15).

+1
Yeah, can you guys stop playing around and tell us when the real top will be in? 



Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #886 on: October 04, 2017, 10:16:27 AM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

ZiziPB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #887 on: October 04, 2017, 10:20:17 AM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.



Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #888 on: October 04, 2017, 10:47:08 AM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

Hah wouldn't we all.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #889 on: October 04, 2017, 11:03:39 AM »
I will tell you the real top for 2017 . . . next year.

kendallf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #890 on: October 04, 2017, 11:51:04 AM »
One day old lottery tickets for sale, half price!  Only one less chance in 100,000,000 to win!
In the absence of clearly-defined goals, we become strangely loyal to performing daily trivia until ultimately we become enslaved by it.
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Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #891 on: October 04, 2017, 09:19:25 PM »
I told you yesterday the top was in.. Please pay attention!..:)

But was that the REAL TOP?  Because it looks like the markets may finish up again today.  All this speculation and memes and jokes are well and good, but I would like to know when the REAL TOP will be in.

The 2017 TOP will be when Trump fails to reconfirm Yellen and appoints Walsh as head of the Fed so about 1-2 weeks away.
Mr. Mark

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #892 on: October 05, 2017, 05:03:37 AM »
So . . . you're calling the top?

Absolutely not. Just pointing out that a correction, which is a pretty significant event, would still only bring us down to the levels the market was at a year ago. Heck, even a major recession only likely takes us to 2015/2016 levels or so.

Just have it wait long enough for my in-kind transfer of VTI to Merrill Edge so that I can harvest a free $500.* I'm not far over the threshold...


*Net $500. Going to get paid $600 into the IRAs after 90 days, but there will be $100 in closure fees whenever I end up closing the accounts. Plus a bunch of benefits from Bank of America Preferred Rewards. Like turning my 2% back @ Costco card into a 3.5% back at Costco card...
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TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #893 on: October 05, 2017, 05:08:04 AM »
Know what else is coming up? The 100th anniversary of Red October. It's been 100 years since the Bolshevik revolution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Revolution

Not sure what that signifies, but what better thread to put it in?

100 years?  Sean Connery sure has a long lifespan!
Credit card signup bonuses:

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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #894 on: October 05, 2017, 08:34:11 AM »
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

farmecologist

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #895 on: October 05, 2017, 08:54:12 AM »

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)


frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #896 on: October 05, 2017, 09:06:36 AM »
It's not gonnna stop, it's never gonna stop!

https://youtu.be/2bjC-VMUhIs?t=81

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #897 on: October 05, 2017, 09:31:46 AM »
If I knew for sure a correction was coming and I knew for sure when it was coming, I could time the market.  I don't know, so I can't time the market.

I thought we were headed for a massive crash on Nov. 9, 2016, because HOLY SHIT THE USA JUST FUCKING ELECTED DONALD TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It didn't crash.  I know nothing.  Keep Calm and Carry On.

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #898 on: October 05, 2017, 09:38:41 AM »
If you would, please give me one days notice before the market top,
so I can start selling the day of the top.
                              Thanks
 P.S. if you could make it the top in VTSAX that would be helpful.
 While I'm here, the top will be a close of today.

  Maybe.

sirdoug007

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #899 on: October 05, 2017, 10:38:16 AM »
Quote
We're coming up on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday

I was not scared until I looked it up, Black Monday October 19, 1987 and we are also coming up on the 88 years anniversary Black Thursday on October 24, Black Monday and Black Tuesday October 28 and October 29, 1929. October can be a scary month ,but I will not be changing my long term investment plan just because an anniversary or Halloween is coming.

You didn't even mention Friday the 13th coming in 8 days!!!  Oh btw, S&P500 at $2,550.  Top is in!