Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 575072 times)

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1550 on: January 09, 2018, 04:46:54 PM »
Exactly what maizeman posted. As was foretold by I, the friendly and conniving resident prophet, way back in days long forgotten. It is here (some months ago, reply #939).

Post 939 was October tenth.  You predicted that a nine year long bull market would last at least three more months?  Yea, you're a real clairvoyant.

What about the rest of your predictions in that post?  Where's that labor anomaly?  Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market?

Forgive me if I don't rush out to buy your newsletter.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1551 on: January 09, 2018, 05:38:19 PM »

Post 939 was October tenth.  You predicted that a nine year long bull market would last at least three more months?  Yea, you're a real clairvoyant.

What about the rest of your predictions in that post?  Where's that labor anomaly?  Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market?

Forgive me if I don't rush out to buy your newsletter.

I will copy and paste my oct10th post here, and go over it with you:

Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Please do not mark the beginning of a bull market immediately after the low of the preceding bear market. The definition is not clear cut I understand, but bull markets should only be recognized after it has surpassed previous highs. Ie, the current bull market actually began in 2013, making it about 5 years old. Not important to the current topic at hand just thought I would mention it, because I am a dic.

2. Bull market lasting three more months is very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)!
To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it? Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong. Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.

3. I am assuming you meant "wage growth anomaly" when you mentioned labor anomaly, otherwise I am not sure what you meant. The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker clocked the wage growth to be 3.2% by Nov 2017 (3MA), pretty crap, sorry to disappoint but it was enough to convince the Fed to step on the breaks in Dec. Or perhaps the Fed did not spot nor recognize any wage growth anomaly and just decided to break for other (no?) reasons.

4.  Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market??
So two things here. Growth is slowing, whether you look at wage growth or some other measures. In fact, housing growth peaked in 2014, for example. As for souring the market, I said:
 the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious.
If anything, I explicitly stated in April the slower expansion would signal a higher market. Market sours not because of weakness, but from excessive strength. Counterintuitive right? But we are not rational, which is precisely why we should begin to look for (but not take) exits while we mingle with potential bagholders at this grand party. Edit: I am actually quite annoyed about this, I have been one of the most bullish posters in this thread, explicitly stating not only was top not in, but a melt-up scenario was very likely. Yet people continue to think I am bearish?? Learn2Read much?

5. I have no newspaper to sell to you. In fact, don't ever buy those. Finally, I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 09:58:30 AM by anisotropy »

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1552 on: January 09, 2018, 07:01:31 PM »
@ anisotropy

You had me at "minions"...

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1553 on: January 09, 2018, 07:01:50 PM »
something something something

Thorstach?

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1554 on: January 09, 2018, 07:25:45 PM »
Some have speculated we're in full blown "melt up" phase.

What does that even mean?  Wtf is a "melt up"?

Melt up seemed self explanatory to me.
 Here's an article that uses it, it has several correlations that precede some major,
if I may, Melt Downs. I found it very interesting and would like to see all these correlations
followed somewhere.
I saw this link in another MMM thread.
https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/viewpoints---bracing-yourself-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up.pdf?sfvrsn=2

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1555 on: January 09, 2018, 08:32:36 PM »
something something something

Thorstach?

Nah, that dude big bear. Wrong too. Poor lad.

Investing is about performance (risk-adjusted returns). So far pretty sure I am crushing his (EDIT: based on sentiment publicly displayed in our posts). Also Mods/Admin can prob see our IPs are different.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 08:49:36 PM by anisotropy »

facepalm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1556 on: January 09, 2018, 09:42:33 PM »
Apparently "melt up" is a genuine term of the art. I didn't know it either.

I recognize that it is becoming more widely used, and I concede that widespread usage is the only criteria for an idiom's legitimacy.  It's still stupid.
Yeah, I hate the term but can't seem to stop clicking on the articles. Gawd.

Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1557 on: January 09, 2018, 10:53:26 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!

The the top and the bottom are one.  There is a top and a bottom in every moment simultaneously.  You must find your inner top and set it free into the world.

That's a quantum top.  If you don't measure it, then there is a non-zero probability that the top has been in all this time. 

That's the universe i choose to live in, although luckily my investments are in this one.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1558 on: January 10, 2018, 06:19:25 AM »
Hey when you have this much FIRE aspiration going on you risk a Melt Up! Bring it on!

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1559 on: January 10, 2018, 07:44:39 AM »

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1560 on: January 10, 2018, 07:58:42 AM »
I'm jumping on the anti "melt-down" terminology bandwagon for one reason: the metaphor doesn't hold in a visual sense.
A melt-down is self explanatory; something gets too hot until it melts into a puddle of glowing goo damaging everything in its proximity.  But a "melt up"?  Things that are melting don't keep going up.  #wordfail.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1561 on: January 10, 2018, 08:01:41 AM »
And yet somehow we all understand exactly what the term means.

brooklynguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1562 on: January 10, 2018, 08:21:44 AM »
"Melt-up" isn't the only term-of-art in the domain of finance that is the product of the modification of an existing descriptive metaphor that employs the antonym of one the underlying metaphor's components in an attempt to describe the opposite of the phenomenon being described and that consequently results in a confusing phrase that has no self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the genesis of the phrase.  Another (which is equally if not more stupid than "melt-up") is "bail-in".

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1563 on: January 10, 2018, 08:34:00 AM »
I found some images to help with the visual sense for the metaphors.

Rock "Melting up" to the surface


Person Bailing in

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1564 on: January 10, 2018, 08:42:21 AM »
All my coworkers are talking about bitcoin and lamenting that they didn't get in sooner. 

The radio is starting to play ads for people that can show anyone how to make money flipping houses. 

Everyone I know including coworkers are talking about a big stock melt up.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1565 on: January 10, 2018, 08:48:55 AM »


I am legally changing my middle name to "Blockchain" my barber told me just doing that would make my personal net worth soar. I don't know what a blockchain is, but I like the sound of it! ;)
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 08:53:16 AM by Retire-Canada »

DrF

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1566 on: January 10, 2018, 08:49:09 AM »
Aye, the top is "melt"-in.


BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1567 on: January 10, 2018, 10:59:53 AM »

that consequently results in a confusing phrase that has no self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the genesis of the phrase. 

I would suggest you have a better chance of knowing the self evident meaning if you don't know the genesis and only know the context in the market term melt down. As most here
or in the financial world would know.

brooklynguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1568 on: January 10, 2018, 12:03:52 PM »

that consequently results in a confusing phrase that has no self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the genesis of the phrase. 

I would suggest you have a better chance of knowing the self evident meaning if you don't know the genesis and only know the context in the market term melt down. As most here
or in the financial world would know.

I meant the genesis of the derivative term, not the genesis of the underlying original term (in other words, I meant the very fact that the derivative term is derived from the underlying original term).  Neither "melt-up" nor "bail-in" has any self-evident meaning to anyone unaware of the fact that it is intended to derive its (antonymous) meaning by reference to the underlying original term ("melt-down" or "bail-out," respectively)--each of the derivative terms has, as sol observed, no logical underpinning of its own.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1569 on: January 10, 2018, 01:15:08 PM »
While ice melts (fundamentals), notice what happens to the water (valuations)




JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1570 on: January 10, 2018, 01:17:15 PM »
This thread is melting up, the Top of thread is in. 

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1571 on: January 10, 2018, 01:25:18 PM »
I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1572 on: January 10, 2018, 01:33:22 PM »
I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1573 on: January 10, 2018, 02:29:02 PM »
I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

*sells this thread short and then begins deleting posts*

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1574 on: January 10, 2018, 02:35:24 PM »
I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

*sells this thread short and then begins deleting posts*

Pretty soon we'll reach the tipping point and EVERYONE will start deleting their posts!

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1575 on: January 10, 2018, 02:46:23 PM »
I've never seen this thread with so many posts...it's hit its top for sure.

I'm going on record saying the post count in this thread will continue to go up.  No downside!

*sells this thread short and then begins deleting posts*

Sorry dearie - You ain't got the volume to alter the market.

dreadmoose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1576 on: January 10, 2018, 02:48:13 PM »
You guys aren't getting it, we're comparing the overvalued nature of these posts against future posts.

Thread CAPE is way too high!

That will surely cause a melting dead cat ricochet.


Inaya

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1577 on: January 10, 2018, 02:49:53 PM »
I've been put in charge of the departmental newsletter. I have received a request to include the prices of the top five cryptocurrencies when I go to print. It's a monthly newsletter. I'm gonna do it anyway because it amuses me.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1578 on: January 10, 2018, 02:56:19 PM »
You guys aren't getting it, we're comparing the overvalued nature of these posts against future posts.

Thread CAPE is way too high!

That will surely cause a melting dead cat ricochet.

Yes, but which direction is the dead cat melting?

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1579 on: January 10, 2018, 03:11:31 PM »
It's a lateral melt for now.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1580 on: January 10, 2018, 03:32:38 PM »
2. Bull market lasting three more months is very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)!
To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it? Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong. Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.

...

I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.

Interesting.

So - according to your analysis, when will the top be in?
And what would you suggest people do to "plan accordingly"?

« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 03:52:51 PM by MrDelane »

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1581 on: January 10, 2018, 03:38:46 PM »

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1582 on: January 10, 2018, 03:49:26 PM »
There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1583 on: January 10, 2018, 05:21:16 PM »
2. Bull market lasting three more months is very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)!
To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it? Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong. Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.

...

I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.

Interesting.

So - according to your analysis, when will the top be in?
And what would you suggest people do to "plan accordingly"?

I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant since I do analysis and not predictions, which limits how far I may "see" into the future. I want to stress the fact that I consider myself fairly average when it comes to critical thinking and making logical deductions, so I will make mistakes even if I used the relevant/correct data and proper Stats techniques.

My strength (at least I think so) however, is that I recognize mistakes and I will change my mind when evidences stack against my current/previous conclusions. I focus on how things are, not what I think/thought they should be. In short, I follow evidences and not narratives, which is more than can be said for most people, who not only find it extremely difficult to admit mistakes and change their ways, but also fail to think critically at the same time. You can check my post history to see if that is mostly true.

If you are interested in seeing how this is an advantage as far as investing is concerned, I can send you some of the things I've written on my blog regarding the CL (crude oil WTI) market which exhibits the characteristics I've just described. I am not interested in promoting myself, my blog serves as a place for me to store and reflect on my ideas from time to time. It would likely be a copy and paste, which means the links in the posts would be lost.

Lastly, I write my opinions, not advice for other people. You probably know I believe in market timing and I would much prefer the passive crowd stays passive come what may. This way one of us will definitely make money off each other, instead of both losing out on bad calls.

EDIT: Just read some of your recent posts, I am impressed with how you think and write. Activating Man-crush mode.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 05:39:04 PM by anisotropy »

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1584 on: January 10, 2018, 05:56:49 PM »

I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant... which limits how far I may "see" into the future.

Same.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1585 on: January 10, 2018, 06:03:01 PM »
Apparently "melt up" is a genuine term of the art. I didn't know it either.

Quote
A dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains created by a melt up are considered an unreliable indication of the direction the market is ultimately headed, and melt ups often precede melt downs.

... so essentially a bubble?

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/melt-up.asp

Yeah, a really stupid way to say a bubble.

In better news, the market actually sagged a bit today - VTI down 0.16% (!)

Surely that's the sign of the stampede for the exits!

Once we get this crash out of the way, I can stop checking the market multiple times a week and go back to sleep - but this thread keeps sucking me in!

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1586 on: January 10, 2018, 08:20:56 PM »
So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up.   I hope this freeze in the melt up goes a lot further tomorrow so that I can buy at sale pricing on payday (this friday)




Mike

« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 08:23:57 PM by aboatguy »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1587 on: January 10, 2018, 09:35:31 PM »
There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

You guys just arenít thinking fourth dimensionally. We are melting through time

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1588 on: January 10, 2018, 10:47:34 PM »
There you have it - we aren't melting up.  We're melting laterally.

You guys just arenít thinking fourth dimensionally. We are melting through time

Great Scott!

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1589 on: January 10, 2018, 11:02:52 PM »


The the top and the bottom are one.  There is a top and a bottom in every moment simultaneously.  You must find your inner top and set it free into the world.

That's a quantum top.  If you don't measure it, then there is a non-zero probability that the top has been in all this time. 

That's the universe i choose to live in, although luckily my investments are in this one.

Ohhhh I've been doing it wrong. I've been taking off my outer top and bottom to show myself to the world. That explains a lot.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1590 on: January 11, 2018, 07:00:37 AM »
So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up. 


OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time?  Or am I not thinking 4th dimensionally again? ("yeah, I have a real problem with that, doc"

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1591 on: January 11, 2018, 07:14:15 AM »
At the next correction/bear market someone should compare the frequency of posts in this thread to the market trends.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1592 on: January 11, 2018, 07:26:05 AM »
At the next correction/bear market someone should compare the frequency of posts in this thread to the market trends.
Sounds good.  We look forward to your report next month, DS.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1593 on: January 11, 2018, 07:42:33 AM »
I don't know when the top will be in because I don't see the top yet. I am extremely data reliant since I do analysis and not predictions, which limits how far I may "see" into the future.

Fair enough - I suppose I could have phrased my question differently.
If you can't give us an estimate of time, can you explain what you're looking for at least - when will you know that the top is coming?  What is the sign you're looking for?  Is it the gains from the S&P as a function of the length of the bull market (which you mentioned in your earlier post)?  Or is there something else?

And, while I appreciate the rest of your answer, you didn't really address the most important question (in my opinion anyhow) - which is, what should we do when we see the sign that you're looking for?  Warning people that the top is coming (and a subsequent crash) assumes that you expect them to do something with that information.  So what is it that you feel people should do?  I only ask because we often see predictions or analysis from either fellow posters or pundits warning of certain moves in the stock market - but they rarely come with any actionable advice.

Would you have people sell and keep cash?  Move into bonds?  Buying Gold?  Bitcoin?
I'm sincerely curious.


Quote
EDIT: Just read some of your recent posts, I am impressed with how you think and write. Activating Man-crush mode.
Ha.  Thanks.
You probably mixed up my post history with someone else.
:)

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1594 on: January 11, 2018, 07:51:14 AM »
At the next correction/bear market someone should compare the frequency of posts in this thread to the market trends.
Sounds good.  We look forward to your report next month, DS.

Report is already done: Top is in

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1595 on: January 11, 2018, 07:59:08 AM »
So in summary this is still not the top, just a small freeze in the melt up. 


OH for christ's sake - are we freezing up or down as we melt up? How we be both freezing and melting at the same time?  Or am I not thinking 4th dimensionally again? ("yeah, I have a real problem with that, doc"

I predict this melting/freezing analogy won't see a top until someone figures out a way to incorporate sublimation/deposition into it as well.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1596 on: January 11, 2018, 08:23:08 AM »


With the market heating up it is skipping the liquid phase and going directly into a gas.  Once we hit the "TOP"  the heat will escape from the market causing it to go directly into a solid frozen state. 

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1597 on: January 11, 2018, 08:34:00 AM »


With the market heating up it is skipping the liquid phase and going directly into a gas.  Once we hit the "TOP"  the heat will escape from the market causing it to go directly into a solid frozen state.

I finally learned something in this thread. It only took 33 pages.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1598 on: January 11, 2018, 09:24:47 AM »
Looks like we are melting up again today.   How high can a melt up go? 

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1599 on: January 11, 2018, 10:22:49 AM »
Looks like we are melting up again today.   How high can a melt up go?

I think the hard limit is defined by the relative mass of your melting substance compared to the mass at the bottom of your gravitational well.

On earth, solar energy melts ice into water into water vapor, and in the high atmosphere ionized water molecules into hydroxyl radicals and hydrogen ions at a maximum temperature (speed) insufficient to reach escape velocity.  On mars, the same process results in decomposed water molecules shooting off into space.  So mars loses water over time while Earth does not.

Sadly, this means Elon's plans to terraform Mars are doomed to failure in the long term, which means the stock market will eventually go to zero.