Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 477460 times)

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2650 on: March 29, 2018, 10:56:19 AM »
Wait, so I shouldn't have just sold all of my stock in preparation for the Friday drop?  I was assured that the top was in!!!
No matter, just wait for it to go up for three more quarters then jump back in, that is called "momentum investing"

I lol'd.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2651 on: March 29, 2018, 11:31:42 AM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

I'd say it's a little more nuanced than that.  It's a social feedback loop.  Patterns do exist, but as soon as people start taking advantage of them that action in and of itself changes the patterns to something new.  It's like trying to jump in a half-deflated bouncy house. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2652 on: March 29, 2018, 12:18:52 PM »
So I should always sell on Thursday, buy on Monday morning?

You should only sell on days ending in the letter "y."


tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2653 on: March 29, 2018, 12:32:09 PM »
So I should always sell on Thursday, buy on Monday morning?

You should only drink on days ending in the letter "y."

Fixed that for you ;)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2654 on: March 29, 2018, 01:32:35 PM »
I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

It's much more productive to exploit for entertainment than for profit.  Case in point, this thread

This thread has topped at least three times, and yet still somehow manages to hang on, climbing ever higher.  It's the perfect investment, because even when the market crashes this thread always finds a way to rally.

Thread Tripple-Top is in.  I like a portfolio of 75/25 personally.  75% Top is in/ 25% Anti-Mustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy.  Although, when you think about it, there is some clear overlap. 

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2655 on: March 29, 2018, 02:51:34 PM »
The market usually has really bad days on Fridays at the end of the month and more importantly the quarter.

Since the market is closed on Friday, tomorrow will be a very interesting day as companies close the books on Q1.

RIP Top

I think if there is one actual, useful point in this thread, it's that patterns in stock market data do not exist. At least, not any that you can exploit for profit.

I'd say it's a little more nuanced than that.  It's a social feedback loop.  Patterns do exist, but as soon as people start taking advantage of them that action in and of itself changes the patterns to something new.  It's like trying to jump in a half-deflated bouncy house.

Mmm you've also got fund managers trying to massage their performance figures as well so quite a bit of manipulation happens in share prices.

I've forgotten if this is also the case but at the end of quarter you've got exchange traded options expiring too which can introduce additional volatility.


OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2656 on: March 29, 2018, 03:00:48 PM »
Post #2662.  S&P at 2640.  Top is In!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2657 on: March 29, 2018, 06:41:42 PM »
Post #2662.  S&P at 2640.  Top is In!

I knew I should've invested more in this thread and less in the market.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2658 on: March 29, 2018, 07:21:51 PM »
Post #2662.  S&P at 2640.  Top is In!

I knew I should've invested more in this thread and less in the market.

thorstach knew.  thorstach knew.

sovereign

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2659 on: April 02, 2018, 10:24:55 AM »
S&P has broken through the 50 day MA and is heading for the 20. Godspeed, Mustachians!

The market rejected the 20 day moving average and slammed down hard (back to the 50DMA).

How often does the S&P 500 have a sharp correction and rebound making a sharp V bottom and then continue to climb like nothing happened?  Extremely rarely.  The correction isn't over yet.  It's the eye of the storm.
Like I said, the correction ain't over yet. ;)


sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2660 on: April 02, 2018, 11:27:54 AM »
Like I said, the correction ain't over yet. ;)

Is this just idle speculation, or are you actually making some trades based your prognostications?  I like to see people post their sells and buys at what prices on what dates, in real time.

Are you buying or selling today?  I'm buying the index at day's end today, like always, currently at 2579.78.  Want to compare notes tomorrow, or next week/month/year?

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2661 on: April 02, 2018, 11:45:37 AM »
Like I said, the correction ain't over yet. ;)

Is this just idle speculation, or are you actually making some trades based your prognostications?  I like to see people post their sells and buys at what prices on what dates, in real time.

Are you buying or selling today?  I'm buying the index at day's end today, like always, currently at 2579.78.  Want to compare notes tomorrow, or next week/month/year?

Obviously these folks have sold everything and bought puts on the entire market since top is in.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2662 on: April 02, 2018, 11:49:02 AM »
S&P has broken through the 50 day MA and is heading for the 20. Godspeed, Mustachians!

The market rejected the 20 day moving average and slammed down hard (back to the 50DMA).

How often does the S&P 500 have a sharp correction and rebound making a sharp V bottom and then continue to climb like nothing happened?  Extremely rarely.  The correction isn't over yet.  It's the eye of the storm.
Like I said, the correction ain't over yet. ;)

Please start a thread when the bottom is in.

Poundwise

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2663 on: April 02, 2018, 03:45:17 PM »
When the bottom is in, can we say:
Bot is in
?


retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2664 on: April 02, 2018, 04:03:31 PM »
Are we going to see the bear? That is the question.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2665 on: April 02, 2018, 05:45:51 PM »
Are we going to see the bear? That is the question.

Does this count as a bear?

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2666 on: April 02, 2018, 06:10:02 PM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

@KTG, my new friend, welcome! 

Trader timeline is minutes to months; investor timeline, years to decades.  So yeah, the emotional roller coaster of listening to your old friends brag about their 20k volatility wins is the hardest part.  You gotta remember there's a little selection bias, though.  The friends who lost 20k are usually quieter than the ones who won.  Meanwhile every trade cost money, yadda yadda.

I hope I'm not distracting too much from the jokes that drive this thread to ever higher highs.  If you're investing new money from earnings every month, and the market would just stay low for a while, you could buy some more at cheaper prices.  Good luck.

Back to our regularly scheduled thread:  Obviously, the top really is in.  Now and forever.  Forever ever.  Thorstach will verify this shortly.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2018, 06:12:47 PM by Bicycle_B »

MrMoneyMullet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2667 on: April 02, 2018, 07:43:55 PM »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2668 on: April 02, 2018, 09:16:48 PM »
Is sovereign the new thorstach?

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2669 on: April 03, 2018, 12:56:28 AM »
As a fairly new Mustachian, and recently buying into simple investing etc and not trying to time the market, I have to admit I am disappointed I went along with it as I have done. I threw in the rest of my investment money in late Jan which seems like it will be the peak for some time now, and have basically been frustrated since. I know a couple of months is no time for many of you, but I would have preferred to have kept more cash on hand to play the volatility, as a couple of friends I have have done. One just made an easy $20k flipping SQ. I have read Bogleheads, I have read A Simple Path to Wealth, and I am reading the Millionaire next door. But as far as I am concerned, I am off to a horrible start. And I do not think things will end well in 2018, and have all this money invested in the hopes it is the right thing to do.

Now someone will gleefully post 'top is in' as a response to this, and maybe I deserve it. But I feel pretty disappointed and even a little angry about this. Ultimately its my own fault, I make my own decisions. I hope I am proven wrong.

@KTG, my new friend, welcome! 

Trader timeline is minutes to months; investor timeline, years to decades.  So yeah, the emotional roller coaster of listening to your old friends brag about their 20k volatility wins is the hardest part.  You gotta remember there's a little selection bias, though.  The friends who lost 20k are usually quieter than the ones who won.  Meanwhile every trade cost money, yadda yadda.

I hope I'm not distracting too much from the jokes that drive this thread to ever higher highs.  If you're investing new money from earnings every month, and the market would just stay low for a while, you could buy some more at cheaper prices.  Good luck.

Back to our regularly scheduled thread:  Obviously, the top really is in.  Now and forever.  Forever ever.  Thorstach will verify this shortly.

Clearly KTG is a relatively new investor and deserves an experienced Mustacian hand on the shoulder. I do sympathise as I remember the gut churning feeling right after I did exactly the same thing not so many years ago.

I am also one of those who can laugh at the fact that I must be what.. 2 full Teslas down from the peak of Jan, but thats easy for me to say with millions of bux sitting in my accounts.. and the same goes true for a lot of the people on this thread.

Basically this comes down to ones perspective of timelines as Bicycle B pointed out. In fact I would point out that the worst pullback in our lifetime has been the 2008 recession. A truely awful event where the economy was on the brink of collapse!

During that event we had a 55% pullback in the S&P and the economy had significant GDP contraction. But guess what? despite how bad that time was, if you had put your money in at the very peak.. You would be making money again 4.5 years later.

4.5 YEARS! you ask?.... yes but... We are in a very different place today. the economy is expanding, unemployment is at record lows which is a very different place to the peak of 2007.

Lets say though, that heck maybe we will have a similar pullback.. well you are going to be putting money into the market EVERY month, which means you are going to be buying stock cheaper, cheap and cheaper.. until the market turns around.. what happens then?

Those contributions thrown into what looked like a bottomless pit of doom will suddenly start showing significant returns.

I know it feels bad now, so turn off the news, automate your contributions and have a look at the end of the yeah.. Chances are you will be making money.

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2670 on: April 03, 2018, 09:02:41 AM »
I am trying. I am glad some of you realize how hard this is to do. Just frustrated I put so much in a 2018's peak.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2671 on: April 03, 2018, 09:16:59 AM »
I am trying. I am glad some of you realize how hard this is to do. Just frustrated I put so much in a 2018's peak.

It's a bit early to be calling 2018's peak.

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2672 on: April 03, 2018, 09:31:53 AM »
Peak as of now!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2673 on: April 03, 2018, 10:13:50 AM »
I remember late in 2008, Warren Buffet was on TV.. I was licking my wounds having lost HALF of my investments.. I felt terrible!

WB was saying.. Stocks are CHEAP.. you should be buying like crazy right now... Last thing I wanted to hear to be honest.

But I thought well "F it".. I rolled all my bonds into stocks, fully maxed my contributions and well I have a job and a paid off house.. I will survive no matter.

The rest is history as they say.

What we have here in nothing more than a hiccup.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2674 on: April 03, 2018, 10:17:55 AM »
I remember late in 2008, Warren Buffet was on TV.. I was licking my wounds having lost HALF of my investments.. I felt terrible!

WB was saying.. Stocks are CHEAP.. you should be buying like crazy right now... Last thing I wanted to hear to be honest.

But I thought well "F it".. I rolled all my bonds into stocks, fully maxed my contributions and well I have a job and a paid off house.. I will survive no matter.

The rest is history as they say.

What we have here in nothing more than a hiccup.

Are we really even to hiccup level yet?

I'm enjoying the sale while it lasts, though. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2675 on: April 03, 2018, 10:20:54 AM »
Peak as of now!
Don't let thorstach get to you.

In other words...

[youtube]LK8sxngSWaU[/youtube]

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2676 on: April 03, 2018, 10:37:19 AM »
What we have here in nothing more than a hiccup.

For now, sure.  What about six months from now?  Every recession starts as a hiccup, right?

I am staying fully invested in my chosen asset allocation.  Having held it for a decade makes it easier to watch the paper losses, because it's just taking back some of the outrageous paper gains of the past few months.  If I had just dumped in cash in January, I might feel differently.

Except I wouldn't, because I had just started dumping in cash in 2008 and then watched half of it go up in smoke, and even then I felt more excitement at the opportunity to buy than dread at the losses. 

How many other things that you buy piss you off when they get cheaper?

High stock prices are good for sellers, like retirees.  Low stock prices are good for buyers, like working stiffs and especially early career working stiffs.  Which are you?  Anyone who is still buying should be thanking their lucky stars every time the market tanks, because that means you are on the right side of the current economic trend.  To a buyer, today's account balance is far less important than today's asking price.

Lews Therin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2677 on: April 03, 2018, 11:16:32 AM »
If anyone wants a different vision, I switched over to Questrade in August 2017. (So my profit/loss counter starts there)

I'm still in profitable range at this point... that'll give you an idea of how high the market went last year that even with this dip, it hasn't caught up to summer 2017.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2678 on: April 03, 2018, 11:16:59 AM »
The only reason I know there was a hiccup is because we track net worth monthly and it went down this month. Hah.

Guess we gotta save more to account for market swings now!

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2679 on: April 03, 2018, 11:57:06 AM »
In fact I would point out that the worst pullback in our lifetime has been the 2008 recession. A truly awful event where the economy was on the brink of collapse!

I think a lot of people have amnesia around how bad it actually was - it honestly felt like the entire banking industry was imploding. Lehman Brothers - 154-years-old - poof! It was scary in a way I hope to never experience again.

So I think a number of us who lived through that get a little slap-happy over a 10% dip or even a 20%-30% bear. It's been just So Much Worse. However, I do feel a lot of sympathy for KTG - it sucks getting in just when things start going south, it's really demoralizing. Unfortunately, the only thing that can grant perspective is time, and you just have to suffer through it. :-(

Come lean on our shoulders, and whistle past the graveyard with us. The sun will come up sooner than you think.

TempusFugit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2680 on: April 03, 2018, 05:00:36 PM »
How many other things that you buy piss you off when they get cheaper?

Pretty much everything.  That's why I always check soon after a purchase to prove to myself that I was suckered and could've got it cheaper.   I'm a masochist that way. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2681 on: April 03, 2018, 05:39:11 PM »
I just checked my quarterly statement. Apparently I have lost $4.13 during the last three months. Iím guessing markets have been very boring and havenít really done much. Did I miss anything exciting that happened?

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2682 on: April 03, 2018, 05:55:43 PM »
You sure that decimal point is in the right place?..:)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2683 on: April 03, 2018, 06:17:32 PM »
You sure that decimal point is in the right place?..:)

I've lose 4.%13

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2684 on: April 03, 2018, 07:42:58 PM »
I remember late in 2008, Warren Buffet was on TV.. I was licking my wounds having lost HALF of my investments.. I felt terrible!

WB was saying.. Stocks are CHEAP.. you should be buying like crazy right now... Last thing I wanted to hear to be honest.

But I thought well "F it".. I rolled all my bonds into stocks, fully maxed my contributions and well I have a job and a paid off house.. I will survive no matter.

The rest is history as they say.

What we have here in nothing more than a hiccup.

Yup.  Those of us who have seen and lived through a correction like that while having significant wealth, understand.  I had a $900k+ 401k hit close,to $1M while i was worth about 2M and ready to FIRE drop to $450k ish.

Having net worth drop by close to 7 figures is a testing experience.  It is easy to be cocky on line after a 10 year bull run, but hold on kids...

Holy cow!.. so your NW now must be like $6M?..:)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2685 on: April 03, 2018, 10:09:48 PM »
I remember late in 2008, Warren Buffet was on TV.. I was licking my wounds having lost HALF of my investments.. I felt terrible!

WB was saying.. Stocks are CHEAP.. you should be buying like crazy right now... Last thing I wanted to hear to be honest.

But I thought well "F it".. I rolled all my bonds into stocks, fully maxed my contributions and well I have a job and a paid off house.. I will survive no matter.

The rest is history as they say.

What we have here in nothing more than a hiccup.

Yup.  Those of us who have seen and lived through a correction like that while having significant wealth, understand.  I had a $900k+ 401k hit close,to $1M while i was worth about 2M and ready to FIRE drop to $450k ish.

Having net worth drop by close to 7 figures is a testing experience.  It is easy to be cocky on line after a 10 year bull run, but hold on kids...

Holy cow!.. so your NW now must be like $6M?..:)

Nope, he went all in on beanie babies

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2686 on: April 04, 2018, 07:57:20 AM »
I remember late in 2008, Warren Buffet was on TV.. I was licking my wounds having lost HALF of my investments.. I felt terrible!

WB was saying.. Stocks are CHEAP.. you should be buying like crazy right now... Last thing I wanted to hear to be honest.

But I thought well "F it".. I rolled all my bonds into stocks, fully maxed my contributions and well I have a job and a paid off house.. I will survive no matter.

The rest is history as they say.

What we have here in nothing more than a hiccup.

Yup.  Those of us who have seen and lived through a correction like that while having significant wealth, understand.  I had a $900k+ 401k hit close,to $1M while i was worth about 2M and ready to FIRE drop to $450k ish.

Having net worth drop by close to 7 figures is a testing experience.  It is easy to be cocky on line after a 10 year bull run, but hold on kids...

Holy cow!.. so your NW now must be like $6M?..:)

Nope, he went all in on beanie babies

So like $30M?

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2687 on: April 04, 2018, 08:11:34 AM »
Quote
Nope, he went all in on beanie babies

So like $30M?

I thought the top for Beanie babies was over 15 years ago!

If the they are still valuable I think my wife has a box of them in the basement... we could be rich. 

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2688 on: April 04, 2018, 09:21:11 AM »
Did you all see this thread made the "Best of..." list?

Sarcasm is attractive. Sarcasm is top.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2689 on: April 04, 2018, 10:03:36 AM »
Did you all see this thread made the "Best of..." list?

Sarcasm is attractive. Sarcasm is top.

Are you calling top sarcasm?

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2690 on: April 04, 2018, 10:38:40 AM »

OurTown

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sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2692 on: April 05, 2018, 08:41:42 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/crash-course-in-market-timing-shows-cost-of-being-wrong-at-tops

Awesome.  That article is just TheTopIsInTheTopIsInTheTopIsInTheTopIsIn for like three pages, broken up by some graphics.  Maybe they read the forum?

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2693 on: April 05, 2018, 09:27:54 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/crash-course-in-market-timing-shows-cost-of-being-wrong-at-tops

Awesome.  That article is just TheTopIsInTheTopIsInTheTopIsInTheTopIsIn for like three pages, broken up by some graphics.  Maybe they read the forum?
Given the activity on this forum thread (and threads like it) people who search ER and MMM probably encounter a lot of this and RED DOW.

the_fixer

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2694 on: April 05, 2018, 09:57:27 AM »
How about a top is in Bear Hug

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2695 on: April 05, 2018, 01:30:19 PM »
Is the mother of all bottoms in yet?

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2696 on: April 05, 2018, 01:47:35 PM »
Is the mother of all bottoms in yet?
How does she keep having kids?

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2697 on: April 05, 2018, 08:27:04 PM »
Trump just announced another $100B in tariffs.... so that means something to the markets i guess

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2698 on: April 05, 2018, 08:51:30 PM »
Trump just announced another $100B in tariffs.... so that means something to the markets i guess

In the famous words of Rex Tillerson "top is in." No wait, the quote is Trump is a "fucking moron." Definitely one, maybe both are true.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2699 on: April 06, 2018, 12:50:48 PM »
Is the mother of all bottoms in yet?
How does she keep having kids?

The Top was in?