Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2234218 times)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4200 on: January 13, 2019, 09:40:04 PM »
Earnings is about to leave a lot of people salty over the next month!
The market discounts the future (or at least it attempts to).

Since we are still deep into correction territory since October, I'm guessing the market has already priced in slower earnings, regardless of "guidance" or "analyst downgrades" yet to come.

What will be interesting to see, over the coming weeks, is whether the market has priced in too steep of a slowdown, or not enough of a slowdown.  Bad news could become good news, if the news is not bad enough.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 10:05:40 PM by ILikeDividends »

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4201 on: January 13, 2019, 09:57:43 PM »
Earnings is about to leave a lot of people salty over the next month!

Because they shorted the market and prices are about to shoot up to reflect the earnings reports?

Not to get all serious, but isnít guidance way down?
If this "guidance" you speak of was accurate and available to the public, it would be priced into the market already.
Am I missing something? I still have faith in The Top my brothers, don't worry! I just want to get my theology correct.

Well, yeah, that's what's happening when you see stuff like Zillow dropping 16% in one day even though it reports earnings in line with expectations.  Every company that issues low guidance gets corrected pricing almost immediately.

Why are you putting quotes around "guidance" like I just made it up?  It's a real thing for public companies.
I like Zillow. Once they told me my house was worth $735,000. The Top Is In for that though, now they only say it is worth $380,000. Since I guess it is worth $250,000, this makes me feel super good about myself.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4202 on: January 14, 2019, 06:03:04 AM »
Citi misses and we are off to the races....

You can't spell sLAUGHTER without.....

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4203 on: January 14, 2019, 11:45:33 AM »
Citi misses and we are off to the races....

You can't spell sLAUGHTER without.....

a 4% increase in share price......

and the rest of the market still negative!!!

love the consistency.

Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4204 on: January 14, 2019, 01:12:34 PM »
Surely we can all agree that earnings will be a reality check.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4205 on: January 14, 2019, 02:43:43 PM »
Surely we can all agree that earnings will be a reality check.

Zing!

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4206 on: January 15, 2019, 10:11:50 AM »
Surely we can all agree that earnings will be a reality check.

Zing!

Reject objective reality. The subjective top is in.

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4207 on: January 15, 2019, 10:21:49 AM »
Surely we can all agree that earnings will be a reality check.

Zing!

Reject objective reality. The subjective top is in.
Fake news

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4208 on: January 15, 2019, 11:11:21 AM »
Surely we can all agree that earnings will be a reality check.

Aren't earnings always a reality check?  I think that's the point. 

RecoveringCarClown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4209 on: January 19, 2019, 10:26:56 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Surely we can all agree that earnings will be a reality check.

Aren't earnings always a reality check?  I think that's the point. 
Pointy Top is in!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4210 on: January 19, 2019, 10:50:05 AM »
I'm calling it - dead cat bounce Top is in

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4211 on: January 19, 2019, 12:25:30 PM »
10% is a pretty big dead cat bounce!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4212 on: January 19, 2019, 06:23:05 PM »
10% is a pretty big dead cat bounce!

In fact, you could call it the Greatest Of All Time, Mother Of All Dead Cat Bounces

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4213 on: January 20, 2019, 03:57:54 AM »
Dow <20,000 in 2019.........summer doldrums?

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4214 on: January 21, 2019, 05:15:17 AM »
xkcd is back, fear is up

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4215 on: January 21, 2019, 07:42:12 AM »
xkcd is back, fear is up

I was wondering if anyone would post this :D

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4216 on: January 22, 2019, 09:21:20 AM »
xkcd is back, fear is up
I had to do a quick regression analysis against maizeman's earlier xkcd tribute post to check if Randall Monroe is secretly on this board.

Initial Result: Top is In

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4217 on: January 22, 2019, 09:10:53 PM »
xkcd is back, fear is up

Oh my! Those two points do define a line! It has a slope and everything. Will it tell us when the top is in?

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4218 on: January 23, 2019, 09:18:15 AM »
Spoiler: show
top is in

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4219 on: January 23, 2019, 12:20:14 PM »
We have clearly hit strong resistance at a key intersection of the Fibonacci spiral retracement. If the market fails to go up from here, it will most likely go down.         TOP         IS        IN     

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4220 on: January 23, 2019, 02:08:50 PM »
We have clearly hit strong resistance at a key intersection of the Fibonacci spiral retracement. If the market fails to go up from here, it will most likely go down.         TOP         IS        IN     

What do you mean "If"?

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4221 on: January 23, 2019, 02:33:25 PM »
We have clearly hit strong resistance at a key intersection of the Fibonacci spiral retracement. If the market fails to go up from here, it will most likely go down.         TOP         IS        IN     

What do you mean "If"?

Itís most likely probably going to happen... maybe, if Iím right, and Iím probably right.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4222 on: January 23, 2019, 03:45:53 PM »
What do you mean "If"?

Itís most likely probably going to happen... maybe, if Iím right, and Iím probably right.

50% of the time, you're right every time.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4223 on: January 23, 2019, 03:51:25 PM »
We have clearly hit strong resistance at a key intersection of the Fibonacci spiral retracement. If the market fails to go up from here, it will most likely go down.         TOP         IS        IN     

What do you mean "If"?

Itís most likely probably going to happen... maybe, if Iím right, and Iím probably right.

I feel the need to respond to this just so I can see another row of "TOP IS IN" moving in parallel across my screen.  It looks cool. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4224 on: January 23, 2019, 04:45:22 PM »
       TOP         IS        IN             TOP         IS        IN               TOP         IS        IN                TOP         IS        IN                 TOP         IS        IN                  TOP         IS        IN                   TOP         IS        IN                    TOP         IS        IN                     TOP         IS        IN                      TOP         IS        IN                       TOP         IS        IN                        TOP         IS        IN                         TOP         IS        IN                          TOP         IS        IN     





Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4225 on: January 23, 2019, 05:44:59 PM »
       TOP         IS        IN             TOP         IS        IN               TOP         IS        IN                TOP         IS        IN                 TOP         IS        IN                  TOP         IS        IN                   TOP         IS        IN                    TOP         IS        IN                     TOP         IS        IN                      TOP         IS        IN                       TOP         IS        IN                        TOP         IS        IN                         TOP         IS        IN                          TOP         IS        IN     

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4226 on: January 24, 2019, 06:55:20 AM »
What do you mean "If"?

Itís most likely probably going to happen... maybe, if Iím right, and Iím probably right.

50% of the time, you're right every time.


DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4227 on: January 24, 2019, 08:37:17 AM »
What do you mean "If"?

Itís most likely probably going to happen... maybe, if Iím right, and Iím probably right.

50% of the time, you're right every time.



Ain't no Ifs bout it, TOP IS IN

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4228 on: January 24, 2019, 09:00:54 AM »
What do you mean "If"?

Itís most likely probably going to happen... maybe, if Iím right, and Iím probably right.

50% of the time, you're right every time.



It makes sense if you know that San Diego is Spanish for The Top Is In.

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4229 on: January 24, 2019, 10:23:17 AM »

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4230 on: January 24, 2019, 10:58:19 AM »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4231 on: January 24, 2019, 12:18:06 PM »
       TOP         IS        IN             TOP         IS        IN               TOP         IS        IN                TOP         IS        IN                 TOP         IS        IN                  TOP         IS        IN                   TOP         IS        IN                    TOP         IS        IN                     TOP         IS        IN                      TOP         IS        IN                       TOP         IS        IN                        TOP         IS        IN                         TOP         IS        IN                          TOP         IS        IN     

Oooo... pretty. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4232 on: January 24, 2019, 01:47:25 PM »
Oh, I can do better..


       TOP         IS        IN     ..............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN      ....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................       TOP         IS        IN     ..............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN      ....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................       TOP         IS        IN     .........................

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4233 on: January 24, 2019, 03:45:02 PM »
Should at least add a sense of suspense

Spoiler: show

       TOP         IS        IN    

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4234 on: January 24, 2019, 04:28:13 PM »
Oh, I can do better..


       TOP         IS        IN     ..............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN      ....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................       TOP         IS        IN     ..............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN     ...............................      TOP         IS        IN      ....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................      TOP         IS        IN     .....................       TOP         IS        IN     .........................

                     *      *                    *                  ,          *             *                       %       *   $      *****    ***     ****,          (        *       *    *    ****    ,                  *        ***     *              **        ,                                         *    ,                Y   A   Y        ,  *             *         *                *              %                *        *       I    *          I       *                    S        *     N                          ,     
« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 04:30:09 PM by dougules »

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4235 on: January 25, 2019, 05:21:05 AM »
its been a rough time investing in the market.

just a brief reminder that the day this thread started the S&P 500 was at 2,348.

It hasn't been below that since.

The top is in.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4236 on: January 25, 2019, 08:43:35 AM »
its been a rough time investing in the market.

just a brief reminder that the day this thread started the S&P 500 was at 2,348.

It hasn't been below that since.

The top is in.

True perspective is a mighty thing.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4237 on: January 25, 2019, 12:17:12 PM »
     🐎    🐎🐎    🐎    🐎      🐎     🐎    🐎
I've got my money on Topisin

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4238 on: January 25, 2019, 01:14:15 PM »
     🐎    🐎🐎    🐎    🐎      🐎     🐎    🐎
I've got my money on Topisin

I watched them run all the way across the screen just to see who would win.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4239 on: January 28, 2019, 11:17:42 AM »
     🐎    🐎🐎    🐎    🐎      🐎     🐎    🐎
I've got my money on Topisin

I watched them run all the way across the screen just to see who would win.
I watched until the fast one lapped the slow one.
Spoiler: show
Thirt from top is fast, third from bottom is slow.  Took me a while to decipher the code when went to quote.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4240 on: January 29, 2019, 01:54:59 PM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4241 on: January 29, 2019, 01:58:45 PM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

Nonsense, I just had a $113k 401k-> IRA rollover settle in cash this morning.

Put 100% of it in equities today.....expect a swift collapse of the US and international stock markets.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4242 on: January 29, 2019, 03:56:48 PM »
You know, I think I've figured out why thorstach never says what he's actually doing with his money.  In his original few posts he was very sure of himself which should mean he'd be willing to share the fact that he sold at the top if that's what he did.  He also seems to have no problem calling a top while ignoring the old Top he called previously.  These together lead me to believe he sold out way before his original call of "the top" on this thread, and was only calling it when the market finally started to look like it was going to fall. 

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4243 on: January 29, 2019, 05:33:01 PM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4244 on: January 29, 2019, 05:45:16 PM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

Nonsense, I just had a $113k 401k-> IRA rollover settle in cash this morning.

Put 100% of it in equities today.....expect a swift collapse of the US and international stock markets.

Is it generally not possible to do a transfer in kind?

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4245 on: January 29, 2019, 05:50:25 PM »
Page top is in!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4246 on: January 29, 2019, 05:50:51 PM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

Nonsense, I just had a $113k 401k-> IRA rollover settle in cash this morning.

Put 100% of it in equities today.....expect a swift collapse of the US and international stock markets.

Is it generally not possible to do a transfer in kind?

In theory it's possible, but in practice maybe not so much.  I have only seen forum participants report that they were unable to do it, and none report doing so successfully.  Maybe four different members have tried to make that 401k to IRA transfer happen automatically and then publicly reported they were unable to do so, and had to hold cash in between.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4247 on: January 29, 2019, 05:54:20 PM »
To fidelities credit. It took only 24 hours. So lost out on 1 day of market returns.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4248 on: January 29, 2019, 09:59:58 PM »
     🐎    🐎🐎    🐎    🐎      🐎     🐎    🐎
I've got my money on Topisin

I watched them run all the way across the screen just to see who would win.
I watched until the fast one lapped the slow one.
Spoiler: show
Thirt from top is fast, third from bottom is slow.  Took me a while to decipher the code when went to quote.

Wait those aren't cats... and theyre definitely not bouncing

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4249 on: January 30, 2019, 05:11:06 AM »
Fair warning: I just pulled $60K out of an old 401(k) to roll it into my new plan. It'll take about 2 weeks to get the money re-invested. Expect a steep market runup over the next 2 weeks, followed by an unprecedented cratering.

I know that feeling.

I transferred 300k last january from my old employer to the new one. had to be done by check. it was my new years resolution to get it done last year so i moved into action early jan. took 2 weeks from selling the old funds to buying the new ones.
missed the 150 point run up in the s&p. got reinvested just in time to see it drop 10%.
had I procrastinated by a couple of weeks (something I'm good at) I'd have pulled the money out at the top and reinvested after that big drop.

I (being the idiot i am) actually calculated that the poor timing of my fund movement cost me something like 27K compared to doing nothing. ( I didn't hit exactly the top and bottom last jan but it was close)
le sigh.