Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 618349 times)

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4150 on: January 04, 2019, 10:14:31 PM »
ironically we are almost back to the bottom of when this started in April 2017 ....not yet though... and the top call was missed by almost everyone even thor.

???

The S&P is up over 7.5% since this thread was started, and that's ignoring dividends.  Not historically fantastic for ~21 months, but not bad and certainly not flat.

(Source:  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1491890400&period2=1546585200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d)

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4151 on: January 05, 2019, 01:27:35 AM »
Since thorstach has left us in this, our time off greatest need, I thought I'd add this chart, which shows that rapid stock market increases are indeed a sign that the end times are upon us. Stolen from the oddstats twitter feed.


Looks like 90% of those were associated with bottoms! Which means that top was in!

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4152 on: January 05, 2019, 04:10:59 PM »
This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.


(Click image to embiggen)

35andFI

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4153 on: January 05, 2019, 06:09:22 PM »
This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.

Oh my goodness that’s hilarious!

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4154 on: January 05, 2019, 06:13:01 PM »
This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.

Oh my goodness that’s hilarious!

Is that a comic you made Maizeman?

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4155 on: January 07, 2019, 07:18:55 AM »
This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.


(Click image to embiggen)

This belongs on that thread called "Best post I saw today on MMM". Or called something like that. Brilliant!

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4156 on: January 07, 2019, 07:52:30 AM »
It has an xkcd-type feel to it. Love it.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4157 on: January 07, 2019, 09:07:05 AM »
This thread continues to have an insufficient number of graphs with scary things drawn on them.


(Click image to embiggen)

This belongs on that thread called "Best post I saw today on MMM". Or called something like that. Brilliant!

+1

thorstach

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« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 10:50:06 AM by thorstach »

frugalnacho

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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4160 on: January 07, 2019, 10:21:20 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e


Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4161 on: January 07, 2019, 11:00:55 AM »
So let me see if I've got this right.  There's a crash coming, and we're woefully unprepared for it.  Doesn't that basically describe all of economic history?

https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e


Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

Isn't that the point of all 84 pages of this thread?
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 11:02:41 AM by dougules »

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4162 on: January 07, 2019, 11:18:38 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e


Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

That's the Prophet you are talking to. The One who called the Top.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4163 on: January 07, 2019, 11:26:36 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/be788ab6-11c2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e


Do you have anything else to contribute beyond a one-note market timing message ?

wow.
He gave us this thread.


I can't think of a greater individual contribution to the forum.

shame on you SIR!

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4164 on: January 07, 2019, 01:57:54 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/imf-warns-world-dangerously-unprepared-upcoming-global-recession

Not everyone is reading the same Thorstach, alas. Above, after his 10:50:06 am edit, the Great Prophet of the Top has offered a clear message of doom that can be read without paywall, without doubt. Only the simplest of browsers are needed. The message is a clarion call, a tolling bell of the highest order.

ZeroHedge! Tyler Durden! Robert Shiller quotes about 1929 narratives developing! Open your ears, my friends, the Top Bell tolls for thee.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4165 on: January 07, 2019, 03:25:07 PM »
We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4166 on: January 07, 2019, 04:10:39 PM »
We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

For me, this was the biggest letdown of the Trump Presidency, and I think his first major (of many) political mistake.  There was broad bi-partisan support to be had after a controversial electoral win, and dozens of Dems would have voted for a package that sent lots of money to their district.    Instead he went for a divisive, GOP bucket-list item that gave the economy a sugar high while claiming there would be trickle-down effects (which has largely not happened).

Oh wait - wrong thread.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4167 on: January 07, 2019, 09:19:52 PM »
Oh wait - wrong thread.
Toupée is in!

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4168 on: January 08, 2019, 05:03:41 AM »
This is typical short-term thinking.

It's what we humans are best at.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4169 on: January 08, 2019, 10:16:46 AM »
We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

For me, this was the biggest letdown of the Trump Presidency, and I think his first major (of many) political mistake.  There was broad bi-partisan support to be had after a controversial electoral win, and dozens of Dems would have voted for a package that sent lots of money to their district.    Instead he went for a divisive, GOP bucket-list item that gave the economy a sugar high while claiming there would be trickle-down effects (which has largely not happened).

Oh wait - wrong thread.

Yes, this sounds way too much like a serious discussion. 

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4170 on: January 08, 2019, 12:56:56 PM »
We had an opportunity to increase economic growth in the US via government infrastructure projects that would likely have a beneficial effect on increasing productivity in the long term, but no we had to have a tax cut for corporations that used the cash to buy back stock.  This is typical short-term thinking.

For me, this was the biggest letdown of the Trump Presidency, and I think his first major (of many) political mistake.  There was broad bi-partisan support to be had after a controversial electoral win, and dozens of Dems would have voted for a package that sent lots of money to their district.    Instead he went for a divisive, GOP bucket-list item that gave the economy a sugar high while claiming there would be trickle-down effects (which has largely not happened).

Oh wait - wrong thread.

Yes, this sounds way too much like a serious discussion.

TLDR; Top is in.

ysette9

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Top is in
« Reply #4171 on: January 08, 2019, 01:35:46 PM »
There actually was one useful phrase in the latest thorstach article:

“He urged economists to ignore the swings on Wall Street.....”

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4172 on: January 08, 2019, 04:51:06 PM »
There actually was one useful phrase in the latest thorstach article:

“He urged economists to ignore the swings on Wall Street.....”
Well, from the feel of the market, I'm pretty sure the top is in.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4173 on: January 08, 2019, 05:00:06 PM »
There actually was one useful phrase in the latest thorstach article:

“He urged economists to ignore the swings on Wall Street.....”
Well, from the feel of the market, I'm pretty sure the top is in.

Quit groping the market Glenstache.  Have you not decency, sir?

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4174 on: January 08, 2019, 05:03:00 PM »
#topisintoo

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4175 on: January 08, 2019, 06:40:17 PM »

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4176 on: January 08, 2019, 06:57:21 PM »

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4177 on: January 08, 2019, 07:43:30 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).
I'm pretty sure we are supposed to blame it on Millenials. It simply must be their fault, somehow. Generation top is in.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4178 on: January 08, 2019, 07:52:17 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you
A pop-up from this URL warned of a virus and "asked me" to click "ok" to "run a virus check."

Of course I immediately closed the browser tab, without clicking "ok", and then started a full virus scan from my own installed security suite.

Thanks, thorstach, but I don't think I'll be clicking on any more of your links from now on.  Anyone else who has visited this link would be prudent to run a security scan as well; using their own security software--not from that URL--of course.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 07:58:25 PM by ILikeDividends »

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4179 on: January 08, 2019, 07:53:45 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4180 on: January 08, 2019, 11:27:49 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

We all know being middle-aged can be bad for the investment accounts, I mean that Porsche isn't going to pay for its self.  Red convertible-Top is in

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4181 on: January 09, 2019, 02:19:13 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind. 

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4182 on: January 09, 2019, 09:17:42 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4183 on: January 09, 2019, 10:10:49 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

I read something on Zerohedge maybe once a year or so, or whenever I feel like having a shittier day.  Unfortunately I get sent a lot of links to their articles by someone who is a great person, but has a habit of worrying too much about things they can't control and was unlucky to have found this site that keeps reinforcing that tendency. 

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4184 on: January 09, 2019, 11:26:50 AM »
I read something on Zerohedge maybe once a year or so, or whenever I feel like having a shittier day.  Unfortunately I get sent a lot of links to their articles by someone who is a great person, but has a habit of worrying too much about things they can't control and was unlucky to have found this site that keeps reinforcing that tendency. 

That's why I read zerohedge as well (when I read it, which is rarely). If you're in one of the moods where you feel like the world is coming apart, there is actually something comforting about reading about all the different and various reasons to despair.

The key is realizing that you really are deciding what you want to feel first and then going to a place that's going to find ways to reinforce that feelings (which is sounds like you do), not thinking that the stories on zerohedge are an accurate picture of the world (which is sounds like your friend may be falling into).

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4185 on: January 09, 2019, 11:44:11 AM »
I read something on Zerohedge maybe once a year or so, or whenever I feel like having a shittier day.  Unfortunately I get sent a lot of links to their articles by someone who is a great person, but has a habit of worrying too much about things they can't control and was unlucky to have found this site that keeps reinforcing that tendency. 

That's why I read zerohedge as well (when I read it, which is rarely). If you're in one of the moods where you feel like the world is coming apart, there is actually something comforting about reading about all the different and various reasons to despair.

The key is realizing that you really are deciding what you want to feel first and then going to a place that's going to find ways to reinforce that feelings (which is sounds like you do), not thinking that the stories on zerohedge are an accurate picture of the world (which is sounds like your friend may be falling into).


Yeah, mostly I'll give in and read one to better understand what they're going through, and to remind myself it may not be (entirely) their fault for their feelings/actions/comments.  I also like to read other opinions (sometimes even if they're highly biased or even manipulative) to make sure I'm not the one that's crazy. 

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4186 on: January 09, 2019, 11:49:28 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

The article actually seems reasonable to me.  If you read it, it's not actually endorsing market timing.  The conclusion it comes to is "Even if you make no moves in your portfolio or investment strategy, you should probably be girding yourself emotionally for a less benign environment."  We have had a big run up the past several years and people have forgotten what the other side of the coin feels like.  We're going to have another crash at some point, and your own psychology is the real danger to you.  [/serious]

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4187 on: January 09, 2019, 01:23:36 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you
A pop-up from this URL warned of a virus and "asked me" to click "ok" to "run a virus check."

Of course I immediately closed the browser tab, without clicking "ok", and then started a full virus scan from my own installed security suite.

Thanks, thorstach, but I don't think I'll be clicking on any more of your links from now on.  Anyone else who has visited this link would be prudent to run a security scan as well; using their own security software--not from that URL--of course.

Virus top is in.


Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4188 on: January 09, 2019, 02:15:49 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

We all know being middle-aged can be bad for the investment accounts, I mean that Porsche isn't going to pay for its self.  Red convertible-Top is in

I think that the correct usage is: Red convertible top is down.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4189 on: January 09, 2019, 02:49:58 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

.... so sequence of returns risk is real, and we should fear being middle aged. Got it.
FWIW I bought more shares today :)

We all know being middle-aged can be bad for the investment accounts, I mean that Porsche isn't going to pay for its self.  Red convertible-Top is in

I think that the correct usage is: Red convertible top is down.

Not in the weather I'm currently experiencing, the Red Convertible-Top is in... the garage along with the rest of the car

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4190 on: January 09, 2019, 08:28:57 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.
Right.  If you randomly choose another 20-year period things look quite a bit different. I happened to select 1995-2015 and got an annualized return of 9.644% with dividends reinvested. I wouldn’t complain about that.

brooklynmoney

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4191 on: January 09, 2019, 08:57:54 PM »
My favorite thing I ever read was in an OpEd in the Wall Street journal where the writer called something he read the stupidest thing he ever read and then said and I read ZeroHedge haha.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4192 on: January 09, 2019, 11:09:00 PM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

Yeah, who a I to be engaged by a blog post?  Fuck me right?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4193 on: January 10, 2019, 07:41:47 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/does-97000-matter-you

Wow, that's some seriously weak sauce. (All due respect of course).

I actually thought it was interesting.  Good to step out of your ridiculously optimistic zone once in a while.  You don't have to agree, of course, but engage the mind.

Right, because ZeroHedge is so mind engaging...

1) As with most doom and gloom about recent returns conspicuously uses 2000 as the starting year.
2) Notes that lump sum beats DCA over the selected years (duh) but is for some reason concerned by margin of beat.
3) Despite selecting year 2000 local peak as starting point, returns on lump sum support 4% withdrawal, even preserving capital.
4) Warns of sequence of return risk by suspending space-time continuum and running returns backwards as if one year's returns has zero impact on the next year's.

One need not be ridiculously optimistic to spot obvious junk analysis.

Yeah, who a I to be engaged by a blog post?  Fuck me right?

Engage away, my friend. Engage to your heart's desire.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4194 on: January 10, 2019, 07:55:05 AM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4195 on: January 10, 2019, 11:17:52 AM »
Aaand we're back

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4196 on: January 10, 2019, 12:39:22 PM »
Thought this list of videos from Yahoo Finance was kinda funny, in a shaking-my-head kind of way.

ClutchBeta

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4197 on: January 13, 2019, 10:00:54 AM »
AAPL top is in!


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4198 on: January 13, 2019, 11:32:14 AM »
AAPL top is in!



Oh sure, they say from Washington State, but they're only designed there, they are grown in China. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4199 on: January 13, 2019, 02:19:27 PM »
Earnings is about to leave a lot of people salty over the next month!