Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 545100 times)

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #900 on: October 05, 2017, 12:00:58 PM »
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 31.02

I've been saying it feels like we're living in Nineteen Ninety-Seventeen with all the 90's music and fashion coming back around.  It looks like outrageous PE ratios are back in vogue too.

Good ole 19917. I remember it like it was yesterday...

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #901 on: October 05, 2017, 03:52:09 PM »
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

dycker1978

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #902 on: October 05, 2017, 03:58:27 PM »
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

Are we there yet?  (Said like a whiny 4 year old on a family road trip)

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #903 on: October 05, 2017, 06:14:23 PM »
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

If only thorstach the technical wizard stuck around to let us know.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #904 on: October 05, 2017, 07:27:30 PM »
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

If only thorstach the technical wizard stuck around to let us know.

Thorstach typically calls the top after several consecutive days of market declines, not on days when the index is up.  He's essentially betting on short term momentum.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #905 on: October 05, 2017, 08:19:10 PM »
Another top today? There are so many different tops in so many different indices that I'm getting confused. When are we going to be there already?

If only thorstach the technical wizard stuck around to let us know.

Thorstach typically calls the top after several consecutive days of market declines, not on days when the index is up.  He's essentially betting on short term momentum.

Betting and losing - haha.

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #906 on: October 06, 2017, 12:13:47 AM »

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

This time it's different.  We've moved permanently to a higher plateau.  ;-)

Caoineag

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #907 on: October 06, 2017, 07:29:01 AM »

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

If its any consolation, I do sort of expect a correction in the next year. It just changes nothing for me. In fact, if the last 10% drop is any indication, I will blink and it will be over.

Comar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #908 on: October 06, 2017, 09:28:23 AM »

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #909 on: October 06, 2017, 09:35:09 AM »

bobechs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #910 on: October 06, 2017, 10:10:28 AM »
Okay, yesterday's close 2277.65

At this moment, -35.77.

So, the corner is turned, top is in, time to bail is right now

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #911 on: October 06, 2017, 10:20:59 AM »
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #912 on: October 06, 2017, 10:22:01 AM »
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Comar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #913 on: October 06, 2017, 10:28:15 AM »
HOLD!
https://youtu.be/iDVuQi4gdtk

Ha ha! Which one was Thorstache?
He ran, and he lived... at least a while. And dying in his bed, many years from now, would he be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our employers that they may take our jobs, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM!

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #914 on: October 06, 2017, 10:51:41 AM »
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

Just terrible. All the way back down to where the market (VTI) was yesterday morning.

The horror! Top was in!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #915 on: October 06, 2017, 12:28:04 PM »
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Today is always the time to get back in.  (Unless it's a weekend, of course.  Or a holiday.  Or your internet is down.)

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #916 on: October 06, 2017, 08:17:07 PM »
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Today is always the time to get back in.  (Unless it's a weekend, of course.  Or a holiday.  Or your internet is down.)

After hours trading is UP to a new high for VTI. It's the after-hours fake high that PROVES the top is in, and the market is going down.

I swear, this thread has made me check the stock market more in the past month than I did in the prior decade.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #917 on: October 06, 2017, 10:17:20 PM »
No, the time to bail was yesterday.

+1

Tomorrow we'll know if today was the time to get back in.

Today is always the time to get back in.  (Unless it's a weekend, of course.  Or a holiday.  Or your internet is down.)

After hours trading is UP to a new high for VTI. It's the after-hours fake high that PROVES the top is in, and the market is going down.

I swear, this thread has made me check the stock market more in the past month than I did in the prior decade.

+1.  I check the stock prices app on my phone WAY more than I should, not because I care if it goes up or down, but because I know if the slightest movement occurs this thread will light up with "Top is in!" Jokes.  Can't miss a good dead cat bounce, now can we?

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #918 on: October 07, 2017, 11:37:47 AM »
Agreed.. I check it almost every hour now instead of just once per day..:)

availablelight

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #919 on: October 07, 2017, 02:12:34 PM »
Apparently ripped jeans made a comeback, but only for young people.  I popped into an "American Eagle" and 1) it looked like the second coming of George Michael, and 2) everybody was 20 years younger than me.

Pre-ripped jeans are dumb on so many levels, not least that if you insisted on ripped jeans you could just go down to the thrift store, get some cheap jeans, and rip them.  They'd probably look more authentically "destroyed" too, and everyone loves "authenticity", right?

(Of course I know that if you'd do that, you probably wouldn't be the kind of person to wear pre-ripped jeans, that you're really paying for the brand, etc., etc., ad nauseum)

I hope the top is in on ripped jeans.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #920 on: October 07, 2017, 02:17:23 PM »
The amusing part is if the market drops 10% next week people will start gloating about "see, we were RIGHT!" and forget that the market is still up this year...

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #921 on: October 07, 2017, 10:03:34 PM »
I swear, this thread has made me check the stock market more in the past month than I did in the prior decade.
+1.  I check the stock prices app on my phone WAY more than I should, not because I care if it goes up or down, but because I know if the slightest movement occurs this thread will light up with "Top is in!" Jokes.  Can't miss a good dead cat bounce, now can we?
Agreed.. I check it almost every hour now instead of just once per day..:)
I literally never checked the S&P in my entire life until April 2017. Now I check it at least twice every market day. Thanks thorstache.

On that note, this week ended on a confirmed downtrend...
via Imgflip Meme Generator

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #922 on: October 08, 2017, 01:37:17 PM »
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #923 on: October 08, 2017, 02:37:34 PM »
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

You poor large cap guys. Top was in. :D

Here I am in VTI, and Friday was an UP day! And more in the aftermarket!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #924 on: October 08, 2017, 05:29:27 PM »
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

You poor large cap guys. Top was in. :D

Here I am in VTI, and Friday was an UP day! And more in the aftermarket!

But Friday the DOW dropped 0.01% so i'm pretty sure we're f#$%ed

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #925 on: October 09, 2017, 07:04:14 AM »
Yes the ONE DAY it was down (Friday) it was definitely down.. End of the World don't ya know?

My stash made money Friday lol

farmecologist

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #926 on: October 09, 2017, 07:40:14 AM »

This thread is too funny.

I know this is all in jest but most of you sound like the 'irrational exuberance' folks before the '08 crash. 

Of course, I say this in jest.  ;-)

If its any consolation, I do sort of expect a correction in the next year. It just changes nothing for me. In fact, if the last 10% drop is any indication, I will blink and it will be over.

Correct...I don't expect anything like the crash of '08 either.  Of course, nobody expected anything that bad back then either.  ;-)

'Normal' corrections are OK....because people typically keep their jobs, etc...  The problem in '08-'09 was that many,many people lost their homes/jobs and could not continue to invest at the low point.  Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #927 on: October 09, 2017, 12:12:07 PM »
Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Trump is appointing anti-regulation fed reserve board governors as we are sitting here and reading.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #928 on: October 09, 2017, 01:10:39 PM »
Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Trump is appointing anti-regulation fed reserve board governors as we are sitting here and reading.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  Or, as I like to say: Those who DO learn from history are doomed to watch other people repeat it.

farmecologist

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #929 on: October 09, 2017, 02:40:09 PM »
Hopefully that was just an anomaly and won't happen again now that the banks are 'under control'...although that is debatable.

Trump is appointing anti-regulation fed reserve board governors as we are sitting here and reading.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  Or, as I like to say: Those who DO learn from history are doomed to watch other people repeat it.


Yes...DavidAnnArbor hence my 'that is debatable' quip.  ;-)

I agree with you  tyort1...I'm seeing an awful lot of people that 'have not learned from history' around here lately!  Lots of people with 'the toys' that clearly cannot afford it.


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #930 on: October 09, 2017, 02:44:24 PM »
I guess we have to embrace the volatility, like a piece of seaweed floating on the ocean surface.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #931 on: October 09, 2017, 04:44:51 PM »
Volatility, going up and down like foam on the waves....

The Top is in!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #932 on: October 09, 2017, 09:46:09 PM »
Yup.. top was last Thursday..:)

Paul der Krake

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #933 on: October 09, 2017, 09:56:20 PM »
I'm rolling over about $50k from an IRA to a 401(k). The check was cut about 10 days ago and I've been seeing the market go up and up and up. If it could please crash back down before the receiving company cashes it that'd be awesome.

So everybody please call your least favorite relatives and tell them to sell everything.

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #934 on: October 10, 2017, 02:16:03 AM »
Top was in of the SP 500 on October 9th ................






........... of 2007 ;)

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #935 on: October 10, 2017, 12:44:58 PM »
Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #936 on: October 10, 2017, 12:51:39 PM »
Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

So . . . you're calling the top?

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #937 on: October 10, 2017, 12:54:59 PM »
Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

So . . . you're calling the top?

NAY!But soon-ish.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #938 on: October 10, 2017, 01:05:42 PM »
I kind of hope there is a drop soon, so all the pundits and armchair experts will just shut up about it. 

Naaahhh, they'll never shut up.......

farmecologist

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #939 on: October 10, 2017, 01:17:43 PM »
I kind of hope there is a drop soon, so all the pundits and armchair experts will just shut up about it. 

Naaahhh, they'll never shut up.......

Nobody will shut up around here!  ;-)

ixtap

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #940 on: October 10, 2017, 01:18:52 PM »
I kind of hope there is a drop soon, so all the pundits and armchair experts will just shut up about it. 

Naaahhh, they'll never shut up.......

Nobody will shut up around here!  ;-)

We have a whole round of "told you so"s to look forward to!

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #941 on: October 10, 2017, 01:53:08 PM »
Don't take me for some conjurer of cheap tricks! I am not trying to help you! I am trying to rob you!

my calls had been pretty on point so far, let's see if I continue to get lucky.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #942 on: October 10, 2017, 02:12:46 PM »
Anisotrophy I'll be your minion anytime you want.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #943 on: October 10, 2017, 02:16:09 PM »
Is THIS the new top??

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #944 on: October 10, 2017, 04:23:43 PM »
DOW doesn't count..:)

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #945 on: October 10, 2017, 04:28:55 PM »
"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed)

Globally growth is gaining, not slowing. That's why the stock market is gaining the most in the international sector and in those parts of the US market that have international exposure, that, and the falling dollar. The emerging market is doing even better than international developed. SP 500 is doing better than US small cap.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #946 on: October 10, 2017, 09:20:04 PM »
Glad to see someone else sharing the belief that econ and market move together.

I was mostly referring to the great US&A in April, aka the source of all that's greattm and wonderful peopletm, the best reallytm. And frankly, it is the only one that matters as far as broad market timing is concerned.

Sing with me: "America! America! lalalalala!"

Yes, globally (outside of USA) growth had been gaining, personally I feel it could last a few more quarters but I don't know without seeing the data. It makes great sense that the global growth would be accelerating after the usa growth rate had slowed. After all, it's like dropping a pebble in a pond, causing a wave propagation. Capitals chase profits, starting with lower risk assets and move further and further towards the higher risk end, that's how the cycles work. With the "peak growth" occurred in late 2014 in the States, I am guessing we are somewhere later in the cycle than many people think. Note, I am not calling the top yet.

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #947 on: October 11, 2017, 06:50:35 AM »
DOW doesn't count..:)

Still an end-of-session high for the S&P 500 I believe.  Doesn't really matter though haha.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #948 on: October 11, 2017, 01:59:30 PM »
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #949 on: October 11, 2017, 01:59:44 PM »
New tops.