Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 131325 times)

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1000 on: October 17, 2017, 08:41:51 AM »
I'm actually hoping for a dip soon because once this whole mess is finished in a few months, we should have a pretty big stockpile of cash to invest and it would be nice if there was a sale.

I have every dollar of mine in the market, and I too am hoping for a dip so that my next paycheck will buy stock at a cheaper price.

In other words, every single one of us in the accumulation phase should be cheering for a dip, regardless how much we have in the market currently.

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1001 on: October 17, 2017, 09:10:21 AM »
Dow 23,000 the top is, well, by now you know the rest of the story!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1002 on: October 17, 2017, 11:27:14 AM »
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment. 

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1003 on: October 17, 2017, 11:50:49 AM »
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

If you take a short term view, dips are awful to live through.  If you take the long term view, they are just blips even if it takes a few years to recover from them. 
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Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1004 on: October 17, 2017, 12:05:16 PM »
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.




Cache Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1005 on: October 17, 2017, 01:38:31 PM »
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

Come on now.  Did you have to go and get all rational on us?  Such a buzz kill.  :)



DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1006 on: October 17, 2017, 02:01:55 PM »
Everyone but NASDAQ gets a new top.
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Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1007 on: October 17, 2017, 02:03:11 PM »
Come on now.  Did you have to go and get all rational on us?  Such a buzz kill.  :)

Ha, sorry about that.  And to be clear, my post wasn't intended to be critical of Dougules at all.  Just highlighted a point that I thought was important with all these "market top" posts.

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1008 on: October 17, 2017, 02:23:37 PM »
DOW hit 23,000 for the first time today.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1009 on: October 17, 2017, 02:52:34 PM »
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1010 on: October 17, 2017, 05:16:12 PM »
DOW hit 23,000 for the first time today.

definitely going to crash tomorrow and we'll loose millions from our wallets

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1011 on: October 17, 2017, 07:28:48 PM »
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

I meant that "Anybody now could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997."  The S&P 500 may have been 600, but the CAPE blew through 25 which is pretty high.  But you're making the exact same point I'm making that the market never went back down to that level even though anybody now could tell you that we were already in a classic bubble with two major crashes on the way. 

Are we in a bubble now?  There's a good chance.  Should you do anything different? No. 

tpac

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1012 on: October 17, 2017, 09:45:12 PM »
US top is in. Exchanged all remaining US equities (VTSMX) for ex-US (VGTSX).

DOM/DEV/EME correlation YTD might as well be 1, but ex-US equities are significantly cheaper relative to historical valuations.

THE TOP IS IN !!!!

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1013 on: October 17, 2017, 11:33:50 PM »
The thing about 1997-2000 is the implied yield of the S&P by either dividends or CAPE10 was 2-4%. At the same time, expected real bond returns were 3-5% or higher. You could make a good case then that the 30 year 4% TIPS bond would outperform the S&P with a CAPE of 40.

Now, bonds are set for a real return of 0-1%, while US stocks should be looking at 3-4%. It's hard to make a case now that things are overvalued, instead of just higher than they used to be. You can say that ex-US should do better going forward (I am investing as if it is a good chance) but that is not certain. The problem with saying something is "overvalued" is that is a relative term, and you must then define what will be better. It doesn't seem obvious to me what the better choice is.

Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1014 on: October 18, 2017, 09:43:04 AM »
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on?  (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.)  When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off.  "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in".  :)

« Last Edit: October 18, 2017, 09:45:00 AM by Kaspian »
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dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1015 on: October 18, 2017, 10:54:38 AM »
The thing about 1997-2000 is the implied yield of the S&P by either dividends or CAPE10 was 2-4%. At the same time, expected real bond returns were 3-5% or higher. You could make a good case then that the 30 year 4% TIPS bond would outperform the S&P with a CAPE of 40.

Now, bonds are set for a real return of 0-1%, while US stocks should be looking at 3-4%. It's hard to make a case now that things are overvalued, instead of just higher than they used to be. You can say that ex-US should do better going forward (I am investing as if it is a good chance) but that is not certain. The problem with saying something is "overvalued" is that is a relative term, and you must then define what will be better. It doesn't seem obvious to me what the better choice is.

I totally agree.  The numbers now, though, seem to say the market thinks that interest rates are going to stay low a long time more.  If interest rates went up to anything close to normal levels any time soon, either the market would have to crash, or earnings would have to catch on fire to make any sense.  I hope it's the 3rd option. 

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1016 on: October 18, 2017, 10:55:36 AM »
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on?  (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.)  When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off.  "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in".  :)

Having lived through the dot bomb, it was obvious that the top was in when even the person cutting my hair was asking about internet stocks.

We also saw this with house flipping in 2005-2006. Everyone and their father wanted to flip houses and become a millionaire.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1017 on: October 18, 2017, 11:55:25 AM »
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on?  (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.)  When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off.  "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in".  :)

Having lived through the dot bomb, it was obvious that the top was in when even the person cutting my hair was asking about internet stocks.

We also saw this with house flipping in 2005-2006. Everyone and their father wanted to flip houses and become a millionaire.

I wonder though how many data points indicate that the top is in.  I don't think we are there yet but it seems to be starting to arrive.
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1018 on: October 18, 2017, 12:27:21 PM »
Are we feeling frothy rich yet ?

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1019 on: October 18, 2017, 01:41:40 PM »
Are we feeling frothy rich yet ?

I'm feeling pretty comfortably well off. Sad its probably all a mirage.. well until after the next crash at least...;)

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1020 on: October 18, 2017, 01:44:47 PM »
Topless, I'm tellin' ya. Topless! Like a Saturn V leaving the atmosphere. :)
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Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1021 on: October 18, 2017, 01:53:39 PM »
Topless, I'm tellin' ya. Topless! Like a Saturn V leaving the atmosphere. :)

Umm.. as your really not my type I'll pass....:)

kendallf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1022 on: October 18, 2017, 02:11:48 PM »
I've been looking at Z06s online.  Just an indicator, but a strong one..
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TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1023 on: October 18, 2017, 06:34:35 PM »
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.


I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).

I was! But that's because '99 cured me of the individual stock thing....

Doesn't matter. Market can drop 25% and I'll still get my sweet transfer bonus :D
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nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1024 on: October 20, 2017, 08:14:02 AM »
Well, in the "Irrational Exuberance" folder we can add this:

It’s cool again to invest’: Americans are giddy about stocks as Dow tops 23,000 (link)

We're seeing just about every asset class rise lately: Stocks, commodities, land, even bitcoin. It's usually a sign investors are getting overly hyped and aren't separating out the best investment opportunities from the “meh” ones.

full disclosure: I'm committed to continue my 'buy and hold index funds' approach, speculation be damned. 
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Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1025 on: October 20, 2017, 12:17:33 PM »
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1026 on: October 20, 2017, 01:32:11 PM »
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!
really?  over the challenger?  I mean if we're being all blingy and irresponsible and and all...
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Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1027 on: October 20, 2017, 01:40:59 PM »
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1028 on: October 20, 2017, 01:51:48 PM »
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!
really?  over the challenger?  I mean if we're being all blingy and irresponsible and and all...

I was jonesing for the Charger (after the asshole ran his Challenger into the anti white supremicist demonstrators I was DEFINITELY over the Challenger).. But I changed my mind.. The 300 more fits "my image"..:)

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1029 on: October 20, 2017, 02:07:46 PM »
THIS is the top.
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Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1030 on: October 20, 2017, 02:25:00 PM »
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24


Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1031 on: October 20, 2017, 02:36:10 PM »

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1032 on: October 20, 2017, 03:37:17 PM »
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly?  A dream?

It's too bad financial pundits are never held accountable for their stock or market calls.
Anchor -  "Here's Jimmy - he's called the market top 11 times over the last 36 months but each time he's been wrong.  So jimmy, what's the market look like to you?"
Jimmy - "THE TOP IS IN!!!"
Anchor - "interesting.  Well, sooner or later you're bound to be right.  Next up, a cat wearing a shark costume riding a roomba chasing a duck"
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Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1033 on: October 20, 2017, 04:11:34 PM »
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016.  We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly?  A dream?

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JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1034 on: October 20, 2017, 04:37:00 PM »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1035 on: October 20, 2017, 05:22:15 PM »

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1036 on: October 20, 2017, 05:33:42 PM »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1037 on: October 20, 2017, 05:55:43 PM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1038 on: October 20, 2017, 08:00:17 PM »
I think we've finally got this thread back on track

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1039 on: October 20, 2017, 08:17:33 PM »
In the car today on a landlord run, I heard a radio commercial for a FREE SEMINAR to learn a SECRET METHOD to make GUARANTEED INCOME by buying and FLIPPING HOUSES with OTHER PEOPLE's MONEY.

It's not a stock market top, but it sure does feel like a strong indicator that we're back into irrational exuberance in the local real estate market.

RecoveringCarClown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1040 on: October 20, 2017, 08:43:31 PM »
That garbage has been on the radio for many years in my neck of the woods.

Oh yeah, and top is in.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1041 on: October 20, 2017, 09:42:25 PM »

h82goslw

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1042 on: October 21, 2017, 06:02:13 AM »
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

The Hellcat is so yesterday....the Demon is the latest and greatest bad ass car.  840 hp and the track package for $1. Car runs 9.xx in 1/4 mile.  And I agree, that Grand Cherokee is hot.

 I’ve been looking at Z06s online also.  Heavily modified ones because I have the extra cash now.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1043 on: October 21, 2017, 06:25:35 AM »
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

The Hellcat is so yesterday....the Demon is the latest and greatest bad ass car.  840 hp and the track package for $1. Car runs 9.xx in 1/4 mile.  And I agree, that Grand Cherokee is hot.

 I’ve been looking at Z06s online also.  Heavily modified ones because I have the extra cash now.

dear god please tell me you are kidding.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1044 on: October 23, 2017, 12:20:41 PM »
Well looks like Friday was the top.. Goldman Sacks warning of the end of the bull market.. Yup we're done now.

No more "build your car" fantasy for me..:)


sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1045 on: October 23, 2017, 12:24:09 PM »
No more "build your car" fantasy for me..:)

Funny, my irrational exuberance fantasy was "put new siding on my house".

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1046 on: October 23, 2017, 12:30:07 PM »
Why not both?


Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1047 on: October 23, 2017, 12:33:07 PM »
Why not both?



Damn I got to get me one of those..:)

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1048 on: October 23, 2017, 01:19:19 PM »
The top was in but I missed it.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1049 on: October 23, 2017, 01:43:59 PM »
The top was in but I missed it.
don't worry, another one will be along shortly...
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"