Author Topic: Top is in (Read 3446087 times)

DarkandStormy · « **Reply #1000 on:** October 17, 2017, 02:01:55 PM »

Everyone but NASDAQ gets a new top.

Cycling Stache · « **Reply #1001 on:** October 17, 2017, 02:03:11 PM »

Quote from: Cache Stash on October 17, 2017, 01:38:31 PM

Come on now. Did you have to go and get all rational on us? Such a buzz kill. :)

Ha, sorry about that. And to be clear, my post wasn't intended to be critical of Dougules at all. Just highlighted a point that I thought was important with all these "market top" posts.

techwiz · « **Reply #1002 on:** October 17, 2017, 02:23:37 PM »

DOW hit 23,000 for the first time today.

Mr. Boh · « **Reply #1003 on:** October 17, 2017, 02:52:34 PM »

Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

ender · « **Reply #1004 on:** October 17, 2017, 05:16:12 PM »

Quote from: techwiz on October 17, 2017, 02:23:37 PM

DOW hit 23,000 for the first time today.

definitely going to crash tomorrow and we'll loose millions from our wallets

dougules · « **Reply #1005 on:** October 17, 2017, 07:28:48 PM »

Quote from: Cycling Stache on October 17, 2017, 12:05:16 PM

Quote from: dougules on October 17, 2017, 11:27:14 AM
I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going. Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing. You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996? It was 600. Seriously.

It was never that low again in history. And that's not counting dividends.

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming. But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here. Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago. I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price. But that just takes you back to February 2016. How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.? Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect. But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc. Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right). But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market. With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

I meant that "Anybody now could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997." The S&P 500 may have been 600, but the CAPE blew through 25 which is pretty high. But you're making the exact same point I'm making that the market never went back down to that level even though anybody now could tell you that we were already in a classic bubble with two major crashes on the way.

Are we in a bubble now? There's a good chance. Should you do anything different? No.

tpac · « **Reply #1006 on:** October 17, 2017, 09:45:12 PM »

US top is in. Exchanged all remaining US equities (VTSMX) for ex-US (VGTSX).

DOM/DEV/EME correlation YTD might as well be 1, but ex-US equities are significantly cheaper relative to historical valuations.

THE TOP IS IN !!!!

Radagast · « **Reply #1007 on:** October 17, 2017, 11:33:50 PM »

The thing about 1997-2000 is the implied yield of the S&P by either dividends or CAPE10 was 2-4%. At the same time, expected real bond returns were 3-5% or higher. You could make a good case then that the 30 year 4% TIPS bond would outperform the S&P with a CAPE of 40.

Now, bonds are set for a real return of 0-1%, while US stocks should be looking at 3-4%. It's hard to make a case now that things are overvalued, instead of just higher than they used to be. You can say that ex-US should do better going forward (I am investing as if it is a good chance) but that is not certain. The problem with saying something is "overvalued" is that is a relative term, and you must then define what will be better. It doesn't seem obvious to me what the better choice is.

Kaspian · « **Reply #1008 on:** October 18, 2017, 09:43:04 AM »

Quote from: Mr. Boh on October 17, 2017, 02:52:34 PM

Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on? (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.) When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off. "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in". :)

dougules · « **Reply #1009 on:** October 18, 2017, 10:54:38 AM »

Quote from: Radagast on October 17, 2017, 11:33:50 PM

The thing about 1997-2000 is the implied yield of the S&P by either dividends or CAPE10 was 2-4%. At the same time, expected real bond returns were 3-5% or higher. You could make a good case then that the 30 year 4% TIPS bond would outperform the S&P with a CAPE of 40.

Now, bonds are set for a real return of 0-1%, while US stocks should be looking at 3-4%. It's hard to make a case now that things are overvalued, instead of just higher than they used to be. You can say that ex-US should do better going forward (I am investing as if it is a good chance) but that is not certain. The problem with saying something is "overvalued" is that is a relative term, and you must then define what will be better. It doesn't seem obvious to me what the better choice is.

I totally agree. The numbers now, though, seem to say the market thinks that interest rates are going to stay low a long time more. If interest rates went up to anything close to normal levels any time soon, either the market would have to crash, or earnings would have to catch on fire to make any sense. I hope it's the 3rd option.

bacchi · « **Reply #1010 on:** October 18, 2017, 10:55:36 AM »

Quote from: Kaspian on October 18, 2017, 09:43:04 AM

Quote from: Mr. Boh on October 17, 2017, 02:52:34 PM
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on? (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.) When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off. "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in". :)

Having lived through the dot bomb, it was obvious that the top was in when even the person cutting my hair was asking about internet stocks.

We also saw this with house flipping in 2005-2006. Everyone and their father wanted to flip houses and become a millionaire.

secondcor521 · « **Reply #1011 on:** October 18, 2017, 11:55:25 AM »

Quote from: bacchi on October 18, 2017, 10:55:36 AM

Quote from: Kaspian on October 18, 2017, 09:43:04 AM
Quote from: Mr. Boh on October 17, 2017, 02:52:34 PM
Will everyone here please let me know when your mothers in law and your coworkers start talking about and buying "FANG" stocks.

Yeah, this is probably the only rational indicator to go on? (If one were crazy enough to want to time instead of rebalance on a schedule.) When the average populace changes its tune from "investing sucks and doesn't work," to "how do I get in?," my personal alarm bells start to go off. "Fear" is historically the best time to buy.

...Also, "top is in". :)

Having lived through the dot bomb, it was obvious that the top was in when even the person cutting my hair was asking about internet stocks.

We also saw this with house flipping in 2005-2006. Everyone and their father wanted to flip houses and become a millionaire.

I wonder though how many data points indicate that the top is in. I don't think we are there yet but it seems to be starting to arrive.

DavidAnnArbor · « **Reply #1012 on:** October 18, 2017, 12:27:21 PM »

Are we feeling frothy rich yet ?

Exflyboy · « **Reply #1013 on:** October 18, 2017, 01:41:40 PM »

Quote from: DavidAnnArbor on October 18, 2017, 12:27:21 PM

Are we feeling frothy rich yet ?

I'm feeling pretty comfortably well off. Sad its probably all a mirage.. well until after the next crash at least...;)

MrGreen · « **Reply #1014 on:** October 18, 2017, 01:44:47 PM »

Topless, I'm tellin' ya. Topless! Like a Saturn V leaving the atmosphere. :)

Exflyboy · « **Reply #1015 on:** October 18, 2017, 01:53:39 PM »

Quote from: Mr. Green on October 18, 2017, 01:44:47 PM

Topless, I'm tellin' ya. Topless! Like a Saturn V leaving the atmosphere. :)

Umm.. as your really not my type I'll pass....:)

kendallf · « **Reply #1016 on:** October 18, 2017, 02:11:48 PM »

I've been looking at Z06s online. Just an indicator, but a strong one..

TomTX · « **Reply #1017 on:** October 18, 2017, 06:34:35 PM »

Quote from: StarBright on October 17, 2017, 07:58:16 AM

Quote from: Itchyfeet on October 16, 2017, 10:35:08 PM
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.

I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).

I was! But that's because '99 cured me of the individual stock thing....

Doesn't matter. Market can drop 25% and I'll still get my sweet transfer bonus :D

nereo · « **Reply #1018 on:** October 20, 2017, 08:14:02 AM »

Well, in the "Irrational Exuberance" folder we can add this:

It’s cool again to invest’: Americans are giddy about stocks as Dow tops 23,000 (link)

We're seeing just about every asset class rise lately: Stocks, commodities, land, even bitcoin. It's usually a sign investors are getting overly hyped and aren't separating out the best investment opportunities from the “meh” ones.

full disclosure: I'm committed to continue my 'buy and hold index funds' approach, speculation be damned.

Exflyboy · « **Reply #1019 on:** October 20, 2017, 12:17:33 PM »

S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!

nereo · « **Reply #1020 on:** October 20, 2017, 01:32:11 PM »

Quote from: Exflyboy on October 20, 2017, 12:17:33 PM

S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!

really? over the challenger? I mean if we're being all blingy and irresponsible and and all...

Clean Shaven · « **Reply #1021 on:** October 20, 2017, 01:40:59 PM »

Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

Exflyboy · « **Reply #1022 on:** October 20, 2017, 01:51:48 PM »

Quote from: nereo on October 20, 2017, 01:32:11 PM

Quote from: Exflyboy on October 20, 2017, 12:17:33 PM
S&P500 at 2574.. The top HAS to be in by now.. Just HAS to be..:)

I'm starting to build my virtual dream car on the manufacturer's website (Black Chrysler 300 with optional "Breaking Bad" hat).. So this is a clear sign the top is in!
really? over the challenger? I mean if we're being all blingy and irresponsible and and all...

I was jonesing for the Charger (after the asshole ran his Challenger into the anti white supremicist demonstrators I was DEFINITELY over the Challenger).. But I changed my mind.. The 300 more fits "my image"..:)

DarkandStormy · « **Reply #1023 on:** October 20, 2017, 02:07:46 PM »

THIS is the top.

Clean Shaven · « **Reply #1024 on:** October 20, 2017, 02:25:00 PM »

We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016. We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

Optimiser · « **Reply #1025 on:** October 20, 2017, 02:36:10 PM »

nereo · « **Reply #1026 on:** October 20, 2017, 03:37:17 PM »

Quote from: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 02:25:00 PM

We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016. We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly? A dream?

It's too bad financial pundits are never held accountable for their stock or market calls.
Anchor - "Here's Jimmy - he's called the market top 11 times over the last 36 months but each time he's been wrong. So jimmy, what's the market look like to you?"
Jimmy - "THE TOP IS IN!!!"
Anchor - "interesting. Well, sooner or later you're bound to be right. Next up, a cat wearing a shark costume riding a roomba chasing a duck"

Clean Shaven · « **Reply #1027 on:** October 20, 2017, 04:11:34 PM »

Quote from: nereo on October 20, 2017, 03:37:17 PM

Quote from: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 02:25:00 PM
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016. We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly? A dream?

via Imgflip Meme Generator

JAYSLOL · « **Reply #1028 on:** October 20, 2017, 04:37:00 PM »

Quote from: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 04:11:34 PM

Quote from: nereo on October 20, 2017, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 02:25:00 PM
We're all too late.

Marketwatch called the top on May 24, 2016. We've all missed it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-top-is-already-in-for-this-stock-market-2016-05-24

So the SP500 going from 2050 to 2575 was... what, exactly? A dream?

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Clean Shaven · « **Reply #1029 on:** October 20, 2017, 05:22:15 PM »

via Imgflip Meme Generator

solon · « **Reply #1030 on:** October 20, 2017, 05:33:42 PM »

Clean Shaven · « **Reply #1031 on:** October 20, 2017, 05:55:43 PM »

JAYSLOL · « **Reply #1032 on:** October 20, 2017, 08:00:17 PM »

I think we've finally got this thread back on track

sol · « **Reply #1033 on:** October 20, 2017, 08:17:33 PM »

In the car today on a landlord run, I heard a radio commercial for a FREE SEMINAR to learn a SECRET METHOD to make GUARANTEED INCOME by buying and FLIPPING HOUSES with OTHER PEOPLE's MONEY.

It's not a stock market top, but it sure does feel like a strong indicator that we're back into irrational exuberance in the local real estate market.

RecoveringCarClown · « **Reply #1034 on:** October 20, 2017, 08:43:31 PM »

That garbage has been on the radio for many years in my neck of the woods.

Oh yeah, and top is in.

aspiringnomad · « **Reply #1035 on:** October 20, 2017, 09:42:25 PM »

h82goslw · « **Reply #1036 on:** October 21, 2017, 06:02:13 AM »

Quote from: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 01:40:59 PM

Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

The Hellcat is so yesterday....the Demon is the latest and greatest bad ass car. 840 hp and the track package for $1. Car runs 9.xx in 1/4 mile. And I agree, that Grand Cherokee is hot.

I’ve been looking at Z06s online also. Heavily modified ones because I have the extra cash now.

nereo · « **Reply #1037 on:** October 21, 2017, 06:25:35 AM »

Quote from: h82goslw on October 21, 2017, 06:02:13 AM

Quote from: Clean Shaven on October 20, 2017, 01:40:59 PM
Hellcat or nothing.

For ultimate piss-off-the-mustachian-cult purchase, go for the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk.

The Hellcat is so yesterday....the Demon is the latest and greatest bad ass car. 840 hp and the track package for $1. Car runs 9.xx in 1/4 mile. And I agree, that Grand Cherokee is hot.

I’ve been looking at Z06s online also. Heavily modified ones because I have the extra cash now.

dear god please tell me you are kidding.

Exflyboy · « **Reply #1038 on:** October 23, 2017, 12:20:41 PM »

Well looks like Friday was the top.. Goldman Sacks warning of the end of the bull market.. Yup we're done now.

No more "build your car" fantasy for me..:)