Top is in

[ender]

I'll get excited and start piling money in if the market drops another 15%-30%. Otherwise it's just noise.

Why do you (apparently) have all this money sitting on the sidelines not invested?

obviously because they knew top was in!

[sol]

I'll get excited and start piling money in if the market drops another 15%-30%. Otherwise it's just noise.

Why do you (apparently) have all this money sitting on the sidelines not invested?

He's been "keeping his powder dry" since 2013.

[MrMoneyMullet]

I'll get excited and start piling money in if the market drops another 15%-30%. Otherwise it's just noise.

Why do you (apparently) have all this money sitting on the sidelines not invested?

obviously because they knew top was in!

LOL YES! This is the sarcastic - correct answer.

[MrMoneyMullet]

I'll get excited and start piling money in if the market drops another 15%-30%. Otherwise it's just noise.

Why do you (apparently) have all this money sitting on the sidelines not invested?

He's been "keeping his powder dry" since 2013.

No - I don't have a ton of money on the sidelines. I have saved up a year's worth of living expenses as a sabbatical fund because I'm planning to quit my corporate job this spring. Most likely I'd cut expenses in order to put money into the market if it dropped a lot. We're frugal compared to most people but not close to MMM level.

[2Birds1Stone]

I would expect this carnage to continue for a few more days. We will enter correction territory by Friday, if not early next week.

[DS]

This thread is blowing up. Volatility of this thread is correlated with U.S. equities. Running analysis..beep..boop..beep..


Top is in.

[Jsn]

I would expect this carnage to continue for a few more days. We will enter correction territory by Friday, if not early next week.

Yup. Friday was a genuine trend. Today was driven by automated sell levels kicking in. Tomorrow will be panicked individuals desperate to lock in their losses.

[2Birds1Stone]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

[gerardc]

I'll get excited and start piling money in if the market drops another 15%-30%. Otherwise it's just noise.

Why do you (apparently) have all this money sitting on the sidelines not invested?

He's been "keeping his powder dry" since 2013.

No - I don't have a ton of money on the sidelines. I have saved up a year's worth of living expenses as a sabbatical fund because I'm planning to quit my corporate job this spring. Most likely I'd cut expenses in order to put money into the market if it dropped a lot. We're frugal compared to most people but not close to MMM level.

1 year expenses, so 3-4% of your portfolio? That's negligible, move along.

[Tyson]

Here's my entire net worth, since I found MMM, including the last week's losses.  Should I be worried?  /snark

[/URL]

[GuitarStv]

Keep calm and rebalance on.

[DavidAnnArbor]

Just watch Netflix or Hulu.

[sol]

One dirty corner of the internet I was reading suggested that the market slide is the direct results of the new tax bill spiking the US deficit. 

Their argument is that Treasury is suddenly hemorrhaging funds as as payroll tax receipts fell off a cliff after the tax bill passed, and so has flooded the market with bonds to make up the difference.  The glut of bonds drives down prices, which drives up yields, which suddenly makes bonds a more attractive asset relative to stocks. 

Exacerbating this trend, people who are just consciously maintaining their asset allocation have to buy more bonds as stock prices skyrocket.  The net effect is the same, in that money flees stocks.

I'm not ready to totally blame the tax bill for the stock market mini-crash, but there does appear to be at least one explanatory argument linking the two.  Giving money to corporations and the wealthy was a conservative wet dream, of course, but in this case they did it by creating federal debt and that has perhaps led to the move out of stocks.  I mean, that money has to go somewhere, right?  You don't just park 6.6% of the US economy in cash over a three day decline.

[thorstach]

Top is in for inverse VIX ETFs like XIV and SVXY

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/vol-etf-terminations-begin-nomura-announces-early-redemption-vix-etn

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/volatility-jump-has-traders-asking-about-poison-pill-in-vix-note

[Xlar]

One dirty corner of the internet I was reading suggested that the market slide is the direct results of the new tax bill spiking the US deficit. 

Their argument is that Treasury is suddenly hemorrhaging funds as as payroll tax receipts fell off a cliff after the tax bill passed, and so has flooded the market with bonds to make up the difference.  The glut of bonds drives down prices, which drives up yields, which suddenly makes bonds a more attractive asset relative to stocks. 

Exacerbating this trend, people who are just consciously maintaining their asset allocation have to buy more bonds as stock prices skyrocket.  The net effect is the same, in that money flees stocks.

I'm not ready to totally blame the tax bill for the stock market mini-crash, but there does appear to be at least one explanatory argument linking the two.  Giving money to corporations and the wealthy was a conservative wet dream, of course, but in this case they did it by creating federal debt and that has perhaps led to the move out of stocks.  I mean, that money has to go somewhere, right?  You don't just park 6.6% of the US economy in cash over a three day decline.

I would be curious to read about this. Could you post a link to this article?

[nereo]

One dirty corner of the internet I was reading suggested that the market slide is the direct results of the new tax bill spiking the US deficit. 
...

You mean slashing taxes has consequences??  Why didn’t anyone say so beforehand??!!

[dragoncar]

Stairs up, Elevator down!

Wheels up in 15.  We’re getting outta here

[DavidAnnArbor]

Treasury rates have gone up a little bit, but not that much.

I would just say that the market tanking recently is just emotional selling after such a large emotional climb up of the market.

[dragoncar]

Top is in for inverse VIX ETFs like XIV and SVXY

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/vol-etf-terminations-begin-nomura-announces-early-redemption-vix-etn

Glad I got out of xiv a couple weeks ago

[TheAnonOne]

I think it's important to note that, even IF the top truly is in, after a massive 7% drop we are STILL 13->15% higher than when the OP started this.

[thorstach]

S&P 500 futures down another 2%+, nikkei down 5%

[JAYSLOL]

S&P 500 futures down another 2%+, nikkei down 5%

Charts!  Fear!  We love you buddy. 

[JAYSLOL]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

Same, I hope we get a break from crazy prices for a while.  A nice 25% drop and an even nicer stagnant market for a few years before the next bull run would do wonders for my FIRE timeline. 

[Cork]

Ahhhh what we see here is the classic Neo-classical Curly Bounced Up Dead Cat Bacon Flop market response.  Shoulda flippin known this was coming.

Predicting the market will go down has never been this funny.  I love this thread. 

[Radagast]

S&P 500 futures down another 2%+, nikkei down 5%

If a full 10% correction develops I'll give you an award!

This is bringing my cheese and bacon back in balance 8'-( No rebalancing the bacon cheese cat burger for me 8'-(

[Padonak]

I say bring on a major market crash and recession. Better now while I'm still wage slavin' than later when I'm retired.

Also, those who are still employed (and even some of those who aren't) will be able to buy some cheap real estate in places like FL.

I don't think the market is going to crash this time though. Knowing how lucky I am, it'll probably happen a few months after I retire. I'll give you guys a heads up.

[Radagast]

One dirty corner of the internet I was reading suggested that the market slide is the direct results of the new tax bill spiking the US deficit. 

Their argument is that Treasury is suddenly hemorrhaging funds as as payroll tax receipts fell off a cliff after the tax bill passed, and so has flooded the market with bonds to make up the difference.  The glut of bonds drives down prices, which drives up yields, which suddenly makes bonds a more attractive asset relative to stocks. 

Exacerbating this trend, people who are just consciously maintaining their asset allocation have to buy more bonds as stock prices skyrocket.  The net effect is the same, in that money flees stocks.

I'm not ready to totally blame the tax bill for the stock market mini-crash, but there does appear to be at least one explanatory argument linking the two.  Giving money to corporations and the wealthy was a conservative wet dream, of course, but in this case they did it by creating federal debt and that has perhaps led to the move out of stocks.  I mean, that money has to go somewhere, right?  You don't just park 6.6% of the US economy in cash over a three day decline.

Meh. Probably just a mix of trading algorithms and Fed Fear at this point.

[dragoncar]

I'll get excited and start piling money in if the market drops another 15%-30%. Otherwise it's just noise.

Although I am getting some excellent farcical entertainment. Turned on Bloomberg just to see what magical "analysis" they had to offer. Technical analyst just said that "whatever happens in the next 2 minutes (before market close) will either make the day look better or worse."

Brilliant advice. Definitely worth $500k salary and 1% AUM.

Check this out:

“Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody's Analytics, dismissed the drop as relatively temporary, saying that unless it holds for multiple weeks, it likely won't make much of an impact.”

(http://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/todays-record-breaking-dow-drop-impact-experts/story?id=52858569)

Uh yeah.  Insightful.  Not at all circular

[dragoncar]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

I gotta say I’m tired of this sentiment.  I understand why people say this, but surely you realize that there are a lot of us here who are actually retired and will be hurt by a downturn.  For us it’s not a buying opportunity, so maybe limit your enthusiasm? 

dont fucking dance

[anisotropy]

One dirty corner of the internet I was reading suggested that the market slide is the direct results of the new tax bill spiking the US deficit. 

Their argument is that Treasury is suddenly hemorrhaging funds as as payroll tax receipts fell off a cliff after the tax bill passed, and so has flooded the market with bonds to make up the difference.  The glut of bonds drives down prices, which drives up yields, which suddenly makes bonds a more attractive asset relative to stocks. 

Exacerbating this trend, people who are just consciously maintaining their asset allocation have to buy more bonds as stock prices skyrocket.  The net effect is the same, in that money flees stocks.

I'm not ready to totally blame the tax bill for the stock market mini-crash, but there does appear to be at least one explanatory argument linking the two.  Giving money to corporations and the wealthy was a conservative wet dream, of course, but in this case they did it by creating federal debt and that has perhaps led to the move out of stocks.  I mean, that money has to go somewhere, right?  You don't just park 6.6% of the US economy in cash over a three day decline.

I am unconvinced of the 1 trillion new bond issuance dropping the stock, I think it's a coincidence they happened around the same time frame.

Also thorstach, nice chart, it will be scarred into inverse VIX "investors" minds for the rest of their lives. :)

[CrankAddict]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

I gotta say I’m tired of this sentiment.  I understand why people say this, but surely you realize that there are a lot of us here who are actually retired and will be hurt by a downturn.  For us it’s not a buying opportunity, so maybe limit your enthusiasm? 

dont fucking dance

I'm totally with you on not cheering too hard on any particular market direction - there is almost always somebody who is feeling pain whether things are moving up or down.  But as a genuine question, if you are already retired, shouldn't you be in asset classes that aren't going to get hammered nearly as hard?  If things really tank, sure, but isn't the portfolio of a retired person supposed to be fairly indifferent to stocks going +/- 20%?  Again, please don't read this as snarky, I'm honestly just trying to understand the position I'll be in some day.

[dragoncar]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

I gotta say I’m tired of this sentiment.  I understand why people say this, but surely you realize that there are a lot of us here who are actually retired and will be hurt by a downturn.  For us it’s not a buying opportunity, so maybe limit your enthusiasm? 

dont fucking dance

I'm totally with you on not cheering too hard on any particular market direction - there is almost always somebody who is feeling pain whether things are moving up or down.  But as a genuine question, if you are already retired, shouldn't you be in asset classes that aren't going to get hammered nearly as hard?  If things really tank, sure, but isn't the portfolio of a retired person supposed to be fairly indifferent to stocks going +/- 20%?  Again, please don't read this as snarky, I'm honestly just trying to understand the position I'll be in some day.

Yes I’m happy with my AA, which is only around 50% equities at the moment.  But I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets just so we can buy on sale.  I totally agree that a downturn is not the end of the world, especially when accumulating, but I think some posters take this too far and express actual hope for a severe downturn without regard for what that means to the vast majority of people in the world.  I’m hedged, but I’d rather see my hedges go down while I and everyone else makes money in equities

[Radagast]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

I gotta say I’m tired of this sentiment.  I understand why people say this, but surely you realize that there are a lot of us here who are actually retired and will be hurt by a downturn.  For us it’s not a buying opportunity, so maybe limit your enthusiasm? 

dont fucking dance

Market moves are good for you (selling) in direct proportion to how bad they are for me (buying). I'll stop cheering crashes if you stop cheering gains! Note, I am cheering for market declines, not broad economic declines.

[anisotropy]

The thing is, tons of the "early retired" demographics are in theirs 30s-40s (myself included). We never really experienced a bear market's full wrath and many of us are not that prepared to face it, which is why plenty people have super high allocation ( >90%) in equities and are likely feeling the pain. I've been a big proponent in holding at least 10% bonds and have some asset and currency hedge to mitigate losses in events like this, but certain things need to be experienced in person to understand the severity of the situation.

[dragoncar]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

I gotta say I’m tired of this sentiment.  I understand why people say this, but surely you realize that there are a lot of us here who are actually retired and will be hurt by a downturn.  For us it’s not a buying opportunity, so maybe limit your enthusiasm? 

dont fucking dance

Market moves are good for you (selling) in direct proportion to how bad they are for me (buying). I'll stop cheering crashes if you stop cheering gains! Note, I am cheering for market declines, not broad economic declines.

When did I cheer market gains?  I do think it’s reasonable for me to be happy to achieve a 4% WR, since that’s pretty much what we are all hoping to do here. 

I think it’s false equivalence to view market gains as losses on your part. The stock market is not a zero sum game.  You are better off accumulating in an up market that continues to go up after retirement than a down market that continues to go down (eg japan scenario)

[secondcor521]

But as a genuine question, if you are already retired, shouldn't you be in asset classes that aren't going to get hammered nearly as hard?  If things really tank, sure, but isn't the portfolio of a retired person supposed to be fairly indifferent to stocks going +/- 20%?  Again, please don't read this as snarky, I'm honestly just trying to understand the position I'll be in some day.

Not necessarily.  A rational early retiree might try to position themselves at the efficient frontier of an AA such as to maximize the historical SWR over his projected life span.  For example, I'm 48 and I use a 40 year planning horizon.  From what I can tell, the AA that maximizes the historical SWR is approximately 90/10.  So that is my investment allocation.

It is also true, however, that the drops of the last two days are not that big of a deal for people in my situation, especially since I am at about a 2% net WR.  Look at it this way:  If the market has dropped 10% so far(*), that means I went from a 2/100 = 2% WR to a 2/90 = 2.22% WR.

Note that a traditional retiree (say aged 65) might have a more conservative portfolio for any number of reasons:  They're less able and probably less willing to return to the workforce.  They may be less likely or less able to do side gigs.  They may have more expensive health insurance and/or health expenses than an early retiree.  And they might be more conservative because that was the more common teaching up until the past decade or so.

(*) I don't know exactly, but it's somewhere in that ballpark.

[Radagast]

I think it’s false equivalence to view market gains as losses on your part. The stock market is not a zero sum game.  You are better off accumulating in an up market that continues to go up after retirement than a down market that continues to go down (eg japan scenario)

True. We have to assume it will continue to go up at something like its historic trend of 5% real in order to cheer losses as we buy, which we can't know in advance. Enough losses would make that no longer true. But, if it's going up at 5% real over the next 30 years regardless, then losses are good for buyers. Actually I'm not cheering any falls yet because I haven't bought anything since the 1st. So right now "meh."

[sol]

I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets

Don't confuse these two things.  The economy is not the stock market.  The economy is profitable businesses, which are profitable or not profitable regardless of their stock price.

Right now the economy still looks great and the stocks are getting cheaper.  I'm not worried.

[dragoncar]

I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets

Don't confuse these two things.  The economy is not the stock market.  The economy is profitable businesses, which are profitable or not profitable regardless of their stock price.

Right now the economy still looks great and the stocks are getting cheaper.  I'm not worried.

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession?  Although the poster I responded to merely hoped for a 10% drop, I’ve seen MMM users express hope for another 2008 style downturn.

To be clear, I’m not personally sweating a single 4% down day, but add enough of those together and I think it will correlate with economic problems

[Telecaster]

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession? 

A number of times.  1987 for instance. 

[dragoncar]

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession? 

A number of times.  1987 for instance.

Thanks, I stand informed. 

Follow up question:  has the top ever so much as to ever be in?

[Radagast]

I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets

Don't confuse these two things.  The economy is not the stock market.  The economy is profitable businesses, which are profitable or not profitable regardless of their stock price.

Right now the economy still looks great and the stocks are getting cheaper.  I'm not worried.

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession?  Although the poster I responded to merely hoped for a 10% drop, I’ve seen MMM users express hope for another 2008 style downturn.

To be clear, I’m not personally sweating a single 4% down day, but add enough of those together and I think it will correlate with economic problems

OK. For me, a 50% decline would be really nice over the next couple years. That's just how it is.

[sol]

To be clear, I’m not personally sweating a single 4% down day, but add enough of those together and I think it will correlate with economic problems

You would think that, wouldn't you, but I'm not seeing it.  Just because it SHOULD work that way doesn't mean it IS working that way right now.

Was there some bad economic news?  The stock market is down over 6% in three trading days, but for what?  Was there a jobs report, a missed earnings call, a credit default, a change in unemployment?  Has our faith in the market been shaken by some horrible event, like an attack on a financial center?  Was there some news I missed?  Because the economy seems just as strong today as it did last week. 

I think it's just as likely this is a blip, caused by random market noise amplifed by electronic traders.  Maybe concentrated crypto gains were cashing out and pumping up the stock index, then the influx stopped when cryptos bailed.  Maybe the bond issuance after the tax law really did motivate people to rebalance.  Maybe it's just rebalancing season for some big institutional investors who can move the market by themselves.  Whatever the trigger, some chartist voodoo geek wrote an algorithm or 2000 that's trying to time the fluxes, and it thought it saw a pattern and it went all in.  We've seen flash crashes before.  These days, the index price isn't really set by human decisions on the minute to minute scale, and arguable not on the day to day scale.  It's a robot eat robot world out there.

This doesn't mean the price will rebound tomorrow.  We've been at unusually high P/E ratios for a while now, without any good explanation as to why, so maybe we were unnaturally frothy and now we're rebounding to long term averages.  In which case, good!  Maybe there's a terrorist attack imminent that only the well connected know about, and they're moving into gold and K iodide tablets before the bombs start to fly.  In which case, oh shit! 

I don't claim to know the future, but I can still read the news of the past week and I'm not seeing any defensible logical trigger for 6.6% of the US economy to evaporate over a weekend.  I don't think the economy actually shrunk by 6.6% and I don't think future earnings shrunk by 6.6%.  I think people are just skittish. 

Me, I'll be buying the dip every Tuesday and Thursday just like I always do.  I'm riding this DCA train all the way to the bottom, baby.

[dragoncar]

I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets

Don't confuse these two things.  The economy is not the stock market.  The economy is profitable businesses, which are profitable or not profitable regardless of their stock price.

Right now the economy still looks great and the stocks are getting cheaper.  I'm not worried.

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession?  Although the poster I responded to merely hoped for a 10% drop, I’ve seen MMM users express hope for another 2008 style downturn.

To be clear, I’m not personally sweating a single 4% down day, but add enough of those together and I think it will correlate with economic problems

OK. For me, a 50% decline would be really nice over the next couple years. That's just how it is.

So when is it ok to hope to profit from another’s misfortune?  Trying to figure out why it seems meaner to hope for declines than to hope for increases, kinda like getting dirty looks at the craps table for “do not pass” bets

[sol]

So when is it ok to hope to profit from another’s misfortune? 

All the time?

This whole thread is about celebrating the misfortune of poor thorstach and his ilk, who have been patiently sitting out of the market for months or even years to keep "dry powder" for the coming collapse they were absolutely SURE was upon us in 2013.  You know, back at Dow 14k when it was so blindingly obvious the market was oversold.

[dragoncar]

So when is it ok to hope to profit from another’s misfortune? 

All the time?

This whole thread is about celebrating the misfortune of poor thorstach and his ilk, who have been patiently sitting out of the market for months or even years to keep "dry powder" for the coming collapse they were absolutely SURE was upon us in 2013.  You know, back at Dow 14k when it was so blindingly obvious the market was oversold.

But thorstach’s misfortune isn’t causing our profit.  If anything, our profit would be greater if he bought stocks, driving the price up however infinitesimally

I’d prefer to make money in mutually advantageous transactions.  All transactions can of course be characterized as one side profiting over another (eg if I buy a house I want to pay less and that means the seller makes less money).  But I think there are still bounds of fairness.  If I buy a house and the seller makes a decent profit, I’m not gonna feel bad about it, even if I consider the price to be a good deal.  I would, however, feel bad if I negotiated a price so low that the seller becomes destitute, eg forced to sell at any price due to extenuating circumstances

[sol]

feel bad if I negotiated a price so low that the seller becomes destitute, eg forced to sell at any price due to extenuating circumstances

You would make a bad capitalist.  The free market demands ruthless exploitation of those circumstances.  If you don't do it, someone else will.

[dragoncar]

feel bad if I negotiated a price so low that the seller becomes destitute, eg forced to sell at any price due to extenuating circumstances

You would make a bad capitalist.  The free market demands ruthless exploitation of those circumstances.  If you don't do it, someone else will.

Thanks?  There are plenty of circumstances in which the “free market” does not represent the greatest Good, for example in cases of externalities

Ps I’m not some flower child, I believe in capitalism as much or more so than the next guy.  But that doesn’t mean I think it’s right to take advantage of people.  Capitalism can exist within a framework of social norms.  For example, let’s say I get a really good deal on a slave in the early 1800s.    Just three fifty.  I can sell for fifty dollars!  What profit!  Should do?

[Radagast]

I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets

Don't confuse these two things.  The economy is not the stock market.  The economy is profitable businesses, which are profitable or not profitable regardless of their stock price.

Right now the economy still looks great and the stocks are getting cheaper.  I'm not worried.

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession?  Although the poster I responded to merely hoped for a 10% drop, I’ve seen MMM users express hope for another 2008 style downturn.

To be clear, I’m not personally sweating a single 4% down day, but add enough of those together and I think it will correlate with economic problems

OK. For me, a 50% decline would be really nice over the next couple years. That's just how it is.

So when is it ok to hope to profit from another’s misfortune?  Trying to figure out why it seems meaner to hope for declines than to hope for increases, kinda like getting dirty looks at the craps table for “do not pass” bets

For some people rain is good, for other people rain is bad. The rain a farmer hopes for is misfortune for other people but the farmer still wants rain. I can't control the rain, but for me right now rain is better than sun, so I hope for rain. I also don't want rain every day forever, or for the climate to shift and bring neverending torrents. But assuming that the future will be mostly sunny with rain about two days in five, like it has been in the past, then for me right now rain is good and that's what I want. That's just how it is.

[dragoncar]

I think it behooves us all to root for widespread economic prosperity vs tanking stock markets

Don't confuse these two things.  The economy is not the stock market.  The economy is profitable businesses, which are profitable or not profitable regardless of their stock price.

Right now the economy still looks great and the stocks are getting cheaper.  I'm not worried.

This is true, but they are also related.  Has a large stock market drop ever ocurred in the absence of economic trouble or a recession?  Although the poster I responded to merely hoped for a 10% drop, I’ve seen MMM users express hope for another 2008 style downturn.

To be clear, I’m not personally sweating a single 4% down day, but add enough of those together and I think it will correlate with economic problems

OK. For me, a 50% decline would be really nice over the next couple years. That's just how it is.

So when is it ok to hope to profit from another’s misfortune?  Trying to figure out why it seems meaner to hope for declines than to hope for increases, kinda like getting dirty looks at the craps table for “do not pass” bets

For some people rain is good, for other people rain is bad. The rain a farmer hopes for is misfortune for other people but the farmer still wants rain. I can't control the rain, but for me right now rain is better than sun, so I hope for rain. I also don't want rain every day forever, or for the climate to shift and bring neverending torrents. But assuming that the future will be mostly sunny with rain about two days in five, like it has been in the past, then for me right now rain is good and that's what I want. That's just how it is.

Ok then I hope a wizard forces you to withdraw all your wealth in cash and then a trogdor burns it to the ground since it will increase the value of my wealth very slightly.

This sequence of events would be best for me, although devastating to you, but it’s fine for me to wish this on you because I’m practicing being a good capitalist