Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 573252 times)

theoverlook

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3450 on: October 08, 2018, 12:22:15 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3451 on: October 08, 2018, 12:33:15 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

No, I don't think you understand. This is it. Top is in, permanently. Only down from here. Get out while you still can.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3452 on: October 08, 2018, 12:53:40 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

In Soviet Russia, Bond film you

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3453 on: October 08, 2018, 12:56:16 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Since we have to time it twice to be successful, when will the SPY bottom be in? Thanks!

No, I don't think you understand. This is it. Top is in, permanently. Only down from here. Get out while you still can.

Sell, and buy bitcoin. Immediately. The time is now. All will be well. The top is dead. Long live Top!

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3454 on: October 08, 2018, 01:08:56 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

Buy Bonds.  James Bonds.

(SPY = S&P 500, BTC = Bitcoin).

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3455 on: October 08, 2018, 01:34:40 PM »
at the time  thorstache posted the S&P  was at 2869. Its climbed 15 points in 3 hours.
Please keep posting -  or maybe now the top is in!!

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3456 on: October 08, 2018, 02:21:03 PM »
SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.

Can anyone decode this so we can project all the tops?

A SPY is a secret agent. I think that means we can expect tops whenever a James Bond film is in work. BTC is a reference to the ICAO code for Bashkirian Airlines. So I think we can predict bears to coincide with Russian propaganda. Not sure what do if the James Bond film takes place in Russia though.

So, it's time to sell all my spies, and buy frequent flier miles on Bashkirian?

rpr

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Top is In: The abridged/collected writings of thorstach
« Reply #3457 on: October 08, 2018, 04:29:21 PM »
A little bored, so here are the collected writings of thorstach

Column 1: Date of Post
Column 2: SPY closing price
Column 3: Gain/loss % till next Thorstach post

To keep things simple, I only selected dates if it was at least 7 dates later.

4/11/2017   $2,353.78   1.43%           Top is In   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1510170/#msg1510170         
4/26/2017   $2,387.45   0.40%      Top is still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1528720/#msg1528720         
5/9/2017    $2,396.92   0.94%      Top is still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1546613/#msg1546613         
6/27/2017   $2,419.38   2.09%      False breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1604523/#msg1604523         
7/24/2017   $2,469.91   0.28%      Mammoth VIX bet   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1636081/#msg1636081         
8/4/2017    $2,476.83   -2.07%      Toxic Mix   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1649346/#msg1649346         
8/18/2017   $2,425.55   1.33%      seeking alpha article   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1665065/#msg1665065         
9/5/2017    $2,457.85   4.36%      failed breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1684439/#msg1684439         
10/23/2017   $2,564.98   3.01%   Failed breakout   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1743599/#msg1743599         
12/1/2017   $2,642.22   4.54%      Top is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1792201/#msg1792201         
2/2/2018    $2,762.13   -0.65%      The mother of all tops is in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1883211/#msg1883211         
2/27/2018   $2,744.28   -3.67%      Lower top is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1914694/#msg1914694         
3/22/2018   $2,643.69   1.87%      First GOAT MOAT   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1943091/#msg1943091         
4/19/2018   $2,693.13   -0.12%      GOAT MOAT still in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg1977860/#msg1977860         
5/29/2018   $2,689.86   1.01%      GOAT MOAT still in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2021004/#msg2021004         
6/25/2018   $2,717.07   3.74%      GOAT MOAT confirmed.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2049793/#msg2049793         
7/27/2018   $2,818.82   2.33%      Double GOAT MOAT is in   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2085380/#msg2085380         
10/8/2018   $2,884.43                 SPY top is in. BTC bottom is in.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2162028/#msg2162028         

Net gain thus far is 22%. 13 increases, 4 decreases.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3458 on: October 09, 2018, 06:56:44 AM »
Excellent summary.  Taking bets on when we will next see the original top ($2353)

theoverlook

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3459 on: October 09, 2018, 07:42:20 AM »
Excellent summary.  Taking bets on when we will next see the original top ($2353)

April 13th, 2028 when they do a 2:1 split of SPY. So April 12th will close at 4706, April 13th open at 2353. x2.

I was going to post a serious reply but decided it wasn't in the right spirit
Yes I know an index doesn't split...wait, does it?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3460 on: October 09, 2018, 09:30:44 AM »

Yes I know an index doesn't split...wait, does it?

Had to look it up to confirm, but although the index itself won't split, price-weighted indices like Dow Jones are affected by splits in constituent stocks. 

Index funds, of course, probably will split if they get too high for retail buyers to want a full share

Glenstache

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Re: Top is In: The abridged/collected writings of thorstach
« Reply #3461 on: October 09, 2018, 10:34:00 AM »
A little bored, so here are the collected writings of thorstach

Column 1: Date of Post
Column 2: SPY closing price
Column 3: Gain/loss % till next Thorstach post

To keep things simple, I only selected dates if it was at least 7 dates later.

<snip>

If this wasn't such a digression into off-topic, this would be a candidate for the "best post" thread. Post Top is in!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3462 on: October 09, 2018, 10:51:57 AM »


So the SPY top is in, huh?

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3463 on: October 09, 2018, 01:38:30 PM »
Can it be a coincidence that Boarder42 is being eulogized on another thread (for his ban), and suddenly thorstach re-appears?

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3464 on: October 09, 2018, 02:11:41 PM »
Can it be a coincidence that Boarder42 is being eulogized on another thread (for his ban), and suddenly thorstach re-appears?

Note to Mods: Please don't ever ban thorstach. :)

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3465 on: October 09, 2018, 03:23:48 PM »
Can it be a coincidence that Boarder42 is being eulogized on another thread (for his ban), and suddenly thorstach re-appears?

All of our lives, we have fought this Top. Tonight I believe we can end it. Tonight is not an accident. There are no accidents. We have not come here by chance. I do not believe in chance. When I see three objectives, three captains, three ships. I do not see coincidence, I see providence. I see purpose. I believe it our fate to be here. It is our destiny. I believe this night holds for each and every one of us, the very meaning of our lives.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3466 on: October 09, 2018, 04:27:49 PM »
Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world. And you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. “Mankind.” That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can’t be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it’s fate that today is the Fourth of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom… Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution… but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the Fourth of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight!  We’re going to live on! We’re going to survive! Today we celebrate The Top!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3467 on: October 09, 2018, 04:44:46 PM »
Can it be a coincidence that Boarder42 is being eulogized on another thread (for his ban), and suddenly thorstach re-appears?

thorstach has re-appeared for one reason and one reason only: The Top is in

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3468 on: October 09, 2018, 05:00:21 PM »
I keep hearing radio commercials for silver/gold commodity IRA's. Isn't that what smart people shift to once the top is in?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3469 on: October 10, 2018, 11:32:54 AM »
Been waiting all morning to hear if the bottom is in yet

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3470 on: October 10, 2018, 11:49:04 AM »
We are all the way down to the January highs now .... ignoring dividends and any purchases made between then and now ....
The lost 3 quarters ... LOST
Future is grim

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3471 on: October 10, 2018, 11:52:02 AM »
Been waiting all morning to hear if the bottom is in yet
Just keep refreshing your browser ever 5 minutes. All savvy investors know that is the best way to fine the Top/Bottom.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3472 on: October 10, 2018, 12:41:15 PM »
We are all the way down to the January highs now .... ignoring dividends and any purchases made between then and now ....
The lost 3 quarters ... LOST
Future is grim

Its even worse than that now.. this is a disaster, we are down a whole 4% from recent highs!.. Now down to just above where we were on Jan 15th.

Almost a whole year GONE!

Lets see our annual spend (first full year of zero grown up job income) will come in at less than the 1.8% dividend payments.. So in theory the actual value of the stock market is almost meaningless to us.

Now where is the bottom?..:)

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3473 on: October 10, 2018, 12:48:09 PM »
Now down to just above where we were on Jan 15th.Almost a whole year GONE!

Hey we were down at this level in August too! And CNBC is reporting this is the worst tumble since April!

April!

God, why didn't we believe Thorstach this 15th or so time even though all the other times s/he was wrong?!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3474 on: October 10, 2018, 01:03:45 PM »
Now down to just above where we were on Jan 15th.Almost a whole year GONE!

Hey we were down at this level in August too! And CNBC is reporting this is the worst tumble since April!

April!

God, why didn't we believe Thorstach this 15th or so time even though all the other times s/he was wrong?!

Actually on the s&P, June 25th we were at 2718. Currently at 2821... I personally do not remember freaking out back in June and that was a whole 4 months ago!..:)

Its a big yawn fest, perfectly normal but I guess human nature being what it is we freak out at what is happening to us right now.. despite the fact that many bigger dips have (not) affected us before.

Hold fast to the plan grasshopper..:)

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3475 on: October 10, 2018, 01:47:06 PM »
Now down to just above where we were on Jan 15th.Almost a whole year GONE!

Hey we were down at this level in August too! And CNBC is reporting this is the worst tumble since April!

April!

God, why didn't we believe Thorstach this 15th or so time even though all the other times s/he was wrong?!

Actually on the s&P, June 25th we were at 2718. Currently at 2821... I personally do not remember freaking out back in June and that was a whole 4 months ago!..:)

Its a big yawn fest, perfectly normal but I guess human nature being what it is we freak out at what is happening to us right now.. despite the fact that many bigger dips have (not) affected us before.

Hold fast to the plan grasshopper..:)
I didn't want to have to do this, but I point to your post from July 4, just after the obliteration of GOAT MOAT.  Your panic was palpable...
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2060156/#msg2060156

Truly, you were devastated.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3476 on: October 10, 2018, 01:59:04 PM »
Now down to just above where we were on Jan 15th.Almost a whole year GONE!

Hey we were down at this level in August too! And CNBC is reporting this is the worst tumble since April!

April!

God, why didn't we believe Thorstach this 15th or so time even though all the other times s/he was wrong?!

Actually on the s&P, June 25th we were at 2718. Currently at 2821... I personally do not remember freaking out back in June and that was a whole 4 months ago!..:)

Its a big yawn fest, perfectly normal but I guess human nature being what it is we freak out at what is happening to us right now.. despite the fact that many bigger dips have (not) affected us before.

Hold fast to the plan grasshopper..:)
I didn't want to have to do this, but I point to your post from July 4, just after the obliteration of GOAT MOAT.  Your panic was palpable...
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2060156/#msg2060156

Truly, you were devastated.

I was? ...Was!.. yes absolutely..:)

But even if I was, the serious point is that we don't remember much worse corrections in the very recent past

weirdlair

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3477 on: October 10, 2018, 02:04:09 PM »


Bring it on!

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3478 on: October 10, 2018, 02:15:59 PM »
Nice time to tax loss harvest for anyone that's dumped money into the markets in the last few months.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3479 on: October 10, 2018, 02:22:12 PM »
What an epic day, I should be able to beat my personal record for largest dollar drop of my investment accounts today!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3480 on: October 10, 2018, 02:29:11 PM »

Bring it on!

Well, I won't back down
No, I won't back down
You can stand me up at the GOAT MOAT of hell
But I won't back down

No, I'll stand my ground
Won't be turned around
And I'll keep this market from draggin' me down
Gonna stand my ground
And I won't back down

(I won't back down) Hey, baby
There ain't no easy way out
(I won't back down) Hey, I
Will stand my ground
And I won't back down

Well, I know what's right
I got just one life
In a market that keeps on pushin' me around
But I'll stand my ground
And I won't back down

(I won't back down) Hey, baby
There ain't no easy way out
(I won't back down) Hey, I
Will stand my ground
(I won't back down) And I won't back down

(I won't back down) Hey, baby
There ain't no easy way out
(I won't back down) Hey, I
Won't back down

(I won't back down) Hey, baby
There ain't no easy way out
(I won't back down) Hey, I
Will stand my ground
(I won't back down) And I won't back down
(I won't back down) No, I won't back down

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3481 on: October 10, 2018, 03:07:38 PM »
Nice time to tax loss harvest for anyone that's dumped money into the markets in the last few months.

Or just let it sit until the markets recover.

PizzaSteve

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3482 on: October 10, 2018, 03:10:30 PM »
Today was nothing...lets see if we top a 50% correction.  Markets may try to push out the weak before year end.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3483 on: October 10, 2018, 03:41:20 PM »
oi

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3484 on: October 10, 2018, 03:49:46 PM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3485 on: October 10, 2018, 03:59:06 PM »
Nice time to tax loss harvest for anyone that's dumped money into the markets in the last few months.

Or just let it sit until the markets recover.

Or just let it sit until you FIRE, and then pull out enough to cover expenses, no matter what the market does between now and then.

Lews Therin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3486 on: October 10, 2018, 04:04:32 PM »
Now down to just above where we were on Jan 15th.Almost a whole year GONE!

Hey we were down at this level in August too! And CNBC is reporting this is the worst tumble since April!

April!

God, why didn't we believe Thorstach this 15th or so time even though all the other times s/he was wrong?!

Actually on the s&P, June 25th we were at 2718. Currently at 2821... I personally do not remember freaking out back in June and that was a whole 4 months ago!..:)

Its a big yawn fest, perfectly normal but I guess human nature being what it is we freak out at what is happening to us right now.. despite the fact that many bigger dips have (not) affected us before.

Hold fast to the plan grasshopper..:)

You'll never make it. You should be at 1% or lower due to this being the toppiest.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3487 on: October 10, 2018, 04:21:55 PM »
Nice time to tax loss harvest for anyone that's dumped money into the markets in the last few months.

Or just let it sit until the markets recover.

Or just let it sit until you FIRE, and then pull out enough to cover expenses, no matter what the market does between now and then.

Or add some more money to your investment accounts and take advantage of the small discount on stocks we got today.

DreamFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3488 on: October 10, 2018, 05:12:00 PM »
Today was nothing...lets see if we top a 50% correction.  Markets may try to push out the weak before year end.

And down she goes....  The worst is yet to come.  Hold on to your hats!

moof

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3489 on: October 10, 2018, 05:42:35 PM »
Today was nothing...lets see if we top a 50% correction.  Markets may try to push out the weak before year end.

And down she goes....  The worst is yet to come.  Hold on to your hats!
Stocks are going on sale!!  Woohoo!  Buying time!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3490 on: October 10, 2018, 06:16:33 PM »
I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.

You don't need to worry about us, we're fine.  Now that I'm no longer working for a paycheck, I pay way less attention to my financial life.  I don't check the market returns every day, or even every week.  I have no idea what this most recent drop has "cost" me, because I know it doesn't matter in the long run.  I will have enough, and if something truly catastrophic happens then I will figure out how to get by with less, which will still be enough.

Retired life is way less stressful than working life, regardless of what the markets are doing.

catccc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3491 on: October 10, 2018, 06:58:43 PM »
Nice time to tax loss harvest for anyone that's dumped money into the markets in the last few months.

Or just let it sit until the markets recover.

I invested $20K into VTSAX on 8/30.  I opened up personal capital just now and got all excited to harvest some losses... but the loss only amounts to $370!  at my 12% tax bracket, that's $44.  IDK if that is worth the effort.

Meanwhile, I hit millionaire status in early August, watched our NW climb to $1.025M by 10/1, and today it is down to $981K.  Ha, 44K just temporarily evaporated!  It's a volatile ride, good thing I am okay just letting it sit.  It's a little sad I could have had 5 more shares had I waited to invest, but this is the long game, so it's all good.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3492 on: October 10, 2018, 08:28:54 PM »
Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world. And you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. “Mankind.” That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can’t be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it’s fate that today is the Fourth of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom… Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution… but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the Fourth of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight!  We’re going to live on! We’re going to survive! Today we celebrate The Top!

Dusty Boots

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3493 on: October 10, 2018, 08:48:34 PM »
What an exciting day! Just a few days ago I bumped up my 401k payroll contribution, and I've been sitting on some fresh cash that needs to get invested so it can start working for me. I feel like a little boy who just walked into a candy store with two fists full of Christmas money.

"'Scuse me sir. I'd like all the index funds *this* will buy." *shoves money across counter* "Please and thank you."

LOL

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3494 on: October 10, 2018, 08:53:31 PM »
Nice time to tax loss harvest for anyone that's dumped money into the markets in the last few months.

Or just let it sit until the markets recover.

I invested $20K into VTSAX on 8/30.  I opened up personal capital just now and got all excited to harvest some losses... but the loss only amounts to $370!  at my 12% tax bracket, that's $44.  IDK if that is worth the effort.

Meanwhile, I hit millionaire status in early August, watched our NW climb to $1.025M by 10/1, and today it is down to $981K.  Ha, 44K just temporarily evaporated!  It's a volatile ride, good thing I am okay just letting it sit.  It's a little sad I could have had 5 more shares had I waited to invest, but this is the long game, so it's all good.

Another $250k and you can tax loss harvest in January ;)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3495 on: October 10, 2018, 09:01:31 PM »
"'Scuse me sir. I'd like all the index funds *this* will buy." *shoves money across counter* "Please and thank you."
Would you like that in a bag, or do you want to feel your future wealth rubbing up against your hands?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 09:04:07 PM by ILikeDividends »

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3496 on: October 10, 2018, 11:27:08 PM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

But what if both my rentals houses burned down.. Then I'd be up 2.8%.... What if the big earthquake hits in Oregon and flattens my house too?

Yeah Ok you probably don't need to feel too bad for me.

Note however (to those who are not long on this path and are wondering WTF is happening) that riding this wave thru thick and thin.. continually buying index funds is what has brought us rich bastards to our happy place.. Oh and not spending much helps too..:)

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3497 on: October 10, 2018, 11:56:51 PM »
The future is in.  There will be no more future from now on.

Update to add: um, my bad.  Never mind.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 12:06:16 AM by ILikeDividends »

chasingthegoodlife

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3498 on: October 11, 2018, 12:29:37 AM »
Saw the news headline and headed straight for this thread for a laugh.

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3499 on: October 11, 2018, 01:17:53 AM »
What an epic day, I should be able to beat my personal record for largest dollar drop of my investment accounts today!

I think mine got done too.

The difference is 10 years ago I was 50% leveraged and had no cash.

This time my margin loan stands at $10 credit(!) and I have well north of six figures ready to use to catch the falling knives.

I like to think I have learned from my mistakes.