Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 477188 times)

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1800 on: January 27, 2018, 02:28:17 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)
The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal. We're over valued but not nose bleed territory. Some of the best gains occur in the last few years of bull markets.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1801 on: January 27, 2018, 03:02:13 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1802 on: January 28, 2018, 12:23:26 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1803 on: January 28, 2018, 12:38:27 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1804 on: January 28, 2018, 01:24:48 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

rab-bit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1805 on: January 28, 2018, 07:31:44 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1806 on: January 28, 2018, 02:55:01 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.


wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1807 on: January 28, 2018, 03:11:32 PM »
Who ever did the graph over time and put Thorstach's comments on there should update it.  Seems we haven't heard anything from them for a while.  I bet the graph shows why.

rab-bit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1808 on: January 28, 2018, 06:41:53 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.

You're right, I took the previous poster's statement as fact without checking the numbers myself. When I do the calculation, I get the PE10 dropping from 34.75 to ~31.3, so about 10% lower as you said, but still higher than any time other than the tech bubble peak.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 06:44:59 PM by rab »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1809 on: January 28, 2018, 06:55:53 PM »
Who ever did the graph over time and put Thorstach's comments on there should update it.  Seems we haven't heard anything from them for a while.  I bet the graph shows why.

Does a lack of Thorstach posts mean that the top is not in, or is it a contrary indicator that the top is actually in?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1810 on: January 28, 2018, 06:57:14 PM »
Does a lack of Thorstach posts mean that the top is not in, or is it a contrary indicator that the top is actually in?

The Top Is always In!

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1811 on: January 28, 2018, 07:54:49 PM »
what does the top say?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1812 on: January 28, 2018, 08:52:53 PM »

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1813 on: January 28, 2018, 10:13:17 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.
You're kinda right, what numbers did I use the first time? Those weren't even the earnings. But I don't fully agree. 2009 should be the year of lowest earnings, those annual numbers are just for the single month, not the whole year. Using monthly data, I now find that PE10 should go from 34.7 to 33.1 after 2008 is behind us, assuming flat earnings and flat price from the most recent multpl entry through 2018.

Not that it matters.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 10:15:19 PM by Radagast »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1814 on: January 29, 2018, 12:57:19 AM »
Is it in yet?

Kinda tired of my wife asking

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1815 on: January 29, 2018, 07:30:43 AM »
Is it in yet?

Kinda tired of my wife asking

It's 10:30, so it's in.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1816 on: January 29, 2018, 07:34:58 AM »
Is it in yet?

Kinda tired of my wife asking

My wife wanted to know why I spend so much time on this forum.  At the time of her asking I was reading this thread.
She still doesn't understand.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1817 on: January 29, 2018, 08:26:30 AM »
Is it in yet?

Kinda tired of my wife asking
Just the top.

Or tip.

Tiptop?

Prairie Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1818 on: January 29, 2018, 09:02:57 AM »
Who ever did the graph over time and put Thorstach's comments on there should update it.  Seems we haven't heard anything from them for a while.  I bet the graph shows why.

Does a lack of Thorstach posts mean that the top is not in, or is it a contrary indicator that the top is actually in?
Thorstach changed his name, or went back to his original name. There's a reward for whoever uncovers his identity.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1819 on: January 29, 2018, 09:05:40 AM »
Thorstach changed his name, or went back to his original name. There's a reward for whoever uncovers his identity.

He logged into the forums yesterday morning. I bet to check out this thread. :)

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1820 on: January 29, 2018, 09:10:03 AM »

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1821 on: January 29, 2018, 09:27:39 AM »
Who ever did the graph over time and put Thorstach's comments on there should update it.  Seems we haven't heard anything from them for a while.  I bet the graph shows why.

Does a lack of Thorstach posts mean that the top is not in, or is it a contrary indicator that the top is actually in?
Thorstach changed his name, or went back to his original name. There's a reward for whoever uncovers his identity.

MrPercentage

boarder42

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1822 on: January 29, 2018, 09:29:05 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.
You're kinda right, what numbers did I use the first time? Those weren't even the earnings. But I don't fully agree. 2009 should be the year of lowest earnings, those annual numbers are just for the single month, not the whole year. Using monthly data, I now find that PE10 should go from 34.7 to 33.1 after 2008 is behind us, assuming flat earnings and flat price from the most recent multpl entry through 2018.

Not that it matters.


https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/

more fun CAPE for any window you can move those years off

TheAnonOne

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1823 on: January 29, 2018, 09:52:53 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.
You're kinda right, what numbers did I use the first time? Those weren't even the earnings. But I don't fully agree. 2009 should be the year of lowest earnings, those annual numbers are just for the single month, not the whole year. Using monthly data, I now find that PE10 should go from 34.7 to 33.1 after 2008 is behind us, assuming flat earnings and flat price from the most recent multpl entry through 2018.

Not that it matters.


https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/

more fun CAPE for any window you can move those years off

If you use that tool and set the "YEARS" to 6, you get a CAPE of 29.X

Basically removing 07,08,09,10

Maenad

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JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1825 on: January 29, 2018, 10:45:48 AM »
Fear is back, something about VIX, yada yada something to follow, market timing will be a reality check

Riff

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1826 on: January 29, 2018, 01:12:30 PM »
State of the Union: Top is in.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 02:21:08 PM by Riff »

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1827 on: January 29, 2018, 01:18:02 PM »
*was in, all downhill from today

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1828 on: January 29, 2018, 01:58:40 PM »
So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?

big_owl

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1829 on: January 29, 2018, 02:07:34 PM »
So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?

Looks like today was capitulation day.  Luckily I sold everything on Friday and bought back today...cause for sure the bottom is in. 

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1830 on: January 29, 2018, 02:10:41 PM »
So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?

Also Friday.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1831 on: January 29, 2018, 02:22:26 PM »

MrPercentage

Please oh please let thorstach and MrPercentage both return and start a debate on market timing!

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1832 on: January 29, 2018, 02:33:00 PM »
So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?

Actually every day from here on out is the top since it will never be as high again. Get in at the open and out at the close each day to avoid losses.

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1833 on: January 29, 2018, 02:33:08 PM »
So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?

Uhh, I sold everything on April 11th last year.  Unfortunately did not put it into bitcoin.




(Not.)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1834 on: January 29, 2018, 06:07:15 PM »
So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?

Uhh, I sold everything on April 11th last year.  Unfortunately did not put it into bitcoin.




(Not.)

Still better to be all cash since April than to have kept it invested and then put it all in Bitcoin at the peak (Top! I meant top). 

itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1835 on: January 29, 2018, 08:29:43 PM »
Man, I sold everything back when I got the Thorstach warning and leveraged up on Reykjavik realestate instead. Nailed it! 🍾😛

jeromedawg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1836 on: January 29, 2018, 09:11:35 PM »
I'm sure this has already been requested in this thread, but can we move this to https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/antimustachian-wall-of-shame-and-comedy/ already?

:T

:D

BTW: sold everything and am just living off it all now. Actually, I reinvested in a crazy cheap neighborhood in Detroit - there are a lot of buildings that have randomly spray painted words and unintelligible acronyms all over them but will get that cleaned up first thing tomorrow. Should be rich pretty soon so no need to keep visiting this site soon enough. Will keep everyone posted.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 09:14:52 PM by jeromedawg »

Mr Mark

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1837 on: January 29, 2018, 10:46:55 PM »
I'm sure this has already been requested in this thread, but can we move this to https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/antimustachian-wall-of-shame-and-comedy/ already?

:T

:D

BTW: sold everything and am just living off it all now. Actually, I reinvested in a crazy cheap neighborhood in Detroit - there are a lot of buildings that have randomly spray painted words and unintelligible acronyms all over them but will get that cleaned up first thing tomorrow. Should be rich pretty soon so no need to keep visiting this site soon enough. Will keep everyone posted.

Nooooo! the last thing we want in the D is people from HCOL SoCal... we're already full with hipsters from Brooklyn.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1838 on: January 30, 2018, 12:02:32 AM »
Quote from: boarder42 link=topic=71868.msg1875984#msg1875984 date=1517243345
[url
https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/[/url]

more fun CAPE for any window you can move those years off
Great link, thanks.

So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?
Actually I sold it all April 12 2017. Waiting for CAPE13 to get back under 10 to re-enter.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1839 on: January 30, 2018, 05:33:32 AM »
Quote from: boarder42 link=topic=71868.msg1875984#msg1875984 date=1517243345
[url
https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/[/url]

more fun CAPE for any window you can move those years off
Great link, thanks.

So when are you guys gonna get back into the market, since obviously we all sold everything on Friday?
Actually I sold it all April 12 2017. Waiting for CAPE13 to get back under 10 to re-enter.

Oh god, is he serious?!

Davids

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1840 on: January 30, 2018, 07:17:28 AM »
Futures down big. Is this it? Was January 26 the day we can say the top was in?

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1841 on: January 30, 2018, 07:37:11 AM »
Futures down big. Is this it? Was January 26 the day we can say the top was in?

The top is ALWAYS in. Every second of every day.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1842 on: January 30, 2018, 08:07:26 AM »
Paging Thorstache. Vix is up, red dow, top is in?

MasterStache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1843 on: January 30, 2018, 08:10:31 AM »
Anyone call top on Friday? You are a market genius!

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1844 on: January 30, 2018, 08:28:57 AM »
Hahaha how about that. Top really was in.

afuera

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1845 on: January 30, 2018, 08:42:01 AM »
I'm hoping this little dip lasts until at least tomorrow, the day my 401K contributions get deposited.  It would be nice to get a discount.

itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1846 on: January 30, 2018, 08:43:35 AM »
Oh no. Iím trying to sell, but it feels like trying to catch a falling knife. Screw it, Iíll just leave it alone and ride this one out. My prayers are with you all.

itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1847 on: January 30, 2018, 08:46:21 AM »
Oh no. Iím trying to sell, but it feels like trying to catch a falling knife. Screw it, Iíll just leave it alone and ride this one out. My prayers are with you all.

Prayers worked. There is a dead cat bounce already.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1848 on: January 30, 2018, 08:48:09 AM »
I'm hoping this little dip lasts until at least tomorrow, the day my 401K contributions get deposited.  It would be nice to get a discount.

Depending on your time horizon, isn't every day an expected discount?


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1849 on: January 30, 2018, 10:12:59 AM »
When the top really does come in I will miss  this thread.