Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1440845 times)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6500 on: March 16, 2020, 02:41:19 PM »
It turns out that today was interesting indeed. -12%. VIX hit 83.56. I donít recall if thatís a record, but itís close. Didnít quite hit the second circuit breaker.

I think weíre approaching Top butt-pucker.

Since we rocketed up 10% on Friday, today was not that crazy.  It's what happens the rest of this week which will determine if we were at top pucker...

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6501 on: March 16, 2020, 02:51:36 PM »
I'm down almost $150k total from the top.  Fear is definitely back, and my earning are a reality check.

I lol'd. Down about double that - whoohoooooooooo. At least i get paid on friday so gonna junk that into the market and let the chips fall where they may!

Another member of the ďdown a houseĒ club

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6502 on: March 16, 2020, 02:52:16 PM »
It turns out that today was interesting indeed. -12%. VIX hit 83.56. I donít recall if thatís a record, but itís close. Didnít quite hit the second circuit breaker.

I think weíre approaching Top butt-pucker.


OMG WERE TO 2017 LEVELS IN THE MARKET.

ALMOST THREE WHOLE YEARS BACK WORTH OF GROWTH!

TOP definitely is IN. Was IN. We're OUT now.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6503 on: March 16, 2020, 03:01:19 PM »
It turns out that today was interesting indeed. -12%. VIX hit 83.56. I donít recall if thatís a record, but itís close. Didnít quite hit the second circuit breaker.

I think weíre approaching Top butt-pucker.


OMG WERE TO 2017 LEVELS IN THE MARKET.

ALMOST THREE WHOLE YEARS BACK WORTH OF GROWTH!

TOP definitely is IN. Was IN. We're OUT now.

2017?  Is that all?  Gosh. Then we're not even close to Top Butt-Pucker. I stand corrected.  Maybe when we get down to 2014 valuations we'll be close to Top Butt-Pucker.

So, maybe next week?   

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6504 on: March 16, 2020, 04:07:46 PM »
I'm down almost $150k total from the top.  Fear is definitely back, and my earning are a reality check.

I lol'd. Down about double that - whoohoooooooooo. At least i get paid on friday so gonna junk that into the market and let the chips fall where they may!

Another member of the ďdown a houseĒ club

Dang, Iím only down a BMW M4, guess I should complain.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6505 on: March 16, 2020, 04:11:46 PM »
I'm down almost $150k total from the top.  Fear is definitely back, and my earning are a reality check.

I lol'd. Down about double that - whoohoooooooooo. At least i get paid on friday so gonna junk that into the market and let the chips fall where they may!

Another member of the ďdown a houseĒ club

Dang, Iím only down a BMW M4, guess I should complain.

Used C6 Z06 here

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6506 on: March 16, 2020, 04:13:38 PM »
I'm only down a Toyota Corolla, but considering the fact that I only drive cheap used cars that feels like a lot!

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6507 on: March 16, 2020, 04:16:32 PM »
Down about 8 Cybertrucks here (the two motor version though)

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6508 on: March 16, 2020, 04:48:57 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6509 on: March 16, 2020, 04:51:54 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

I think so. I think how far it goes down will depend a lot on how many old folks die. Sorry to be morbid but there you go.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6510 on: March 16, 2020, 05:08:11 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

I think so. I think how far it goes down will depend a lot on how many old folks die. Sorry to be morbid but there you go.

Yes.  It will be offset somewhat by lower mortgage rates but there will be serious qualification issues for even the best buyers.  Banks will see that no paycheck is guaranteed right now

I suspect transaction volume will evaporate and those with cash might get a good deal if they can find a listing

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6511 on: March 16, 2020, 05:13:21 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

I think so. I think how far it goes down will depend a lot on how many old folks die. Sorry to be morbid but there you go.

Yes.  It will be offset somewhat by lower mortgage rates but there will be serious qualification issues for even the best buyers.  Banks will see that no paycheck is guaranteed right now

I suspect transaction volume will evaporate and those with cash might get a good deal if they can find a listing

My wild speculation, completely unsupported by any facts, is that everyone who bought property for Airbnb could be in big trouble. I live in a place with really high prices and a lot of tourism. It seems like the people I hear about who took on big mortgages that they can only pay when they have high occupancy rates will be in trouble soon.

Iím really curious how that will play out and if it is a big enough portion of the housing market to have a real impact.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6512 on: March 16, 2020, 05:39:10 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

Good question.  Lots of leverage out there. It can be your best friend or worst enemy.  I suspect that a lot of stuff will come crashing down depending on how long the shutdowns last.

Lots of bargains coming I suppose. 

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6513 on: March 16, 2020, 05:53:10 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

Good question.  Lots of leverage out there. It can be your best friend or worst enemy.  I suspect that a lot of stuff will come crashing down depending on how long the shutdowns last.

Lots of bargains coming I suppose.

Just applied for a HELOC just in case - Iím thinking 6-12 months from now the foreclosures will be ripening. For now, no one has even missed a payment yet.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6514 on: March 16, 2020, 06:03:23 PM »
Semi serious question: is the real estate top in? Seems like we are headed for major economic issues, and that combined with people's fear of letting strangers in their house to view it seems like a real estate crash will follow. Is this going to trickle down into every part of the economy? Are we having another "great recession"?

Good question.  Lots of leverage out there. It can be your best friend or worst enemy.  I suspect that a lot of stuff will come crashing down depending on how long the shutdowns last.

Lots of bargains coming I suppose.

Just applied for a HELOC just in case - Iím thinking 6-12 months from now the foreclosures will be ripening. For now, no one has even missed a payment yet.

It'll take awhile.  Last time it was a couple of years.  I do recall that during 2010, you could get properties for stupid low prices.  I'm highly qualified to evaluate stupid here as I didn't buy. 

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6515 on: March 16, 2020, 06:24:39 PM »
Fed rate 0%... seriously considering margin leverage now.  At least for monthly expenses as needed so I don't have to sell anything low.  Have to run the numbers on risk... I keep my leverage extremely low but still need to consider the worst case (a year of expenses is around 4% margin LVR)
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 06:26:43 PM by dragoncar »

YYK

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6516 on: March 16, 2020, 07:07:54 PM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Helvegen

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6517 on: March 16, 2020, 10:36:34 PM »
Losing 2 years of gains in two weeks is nothing to laugh at. Fuck, I feel for my DAX invested FIL -34%  in FIVE YEARS. Stonks always go up, rite?

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6518 on: March 16, 2020, 10:59:34 PM »
Losing 2 years of gains in two weeks is nothing to laugh at. Fuck, I feel for my DAX invested FIL -34%  in FIVE YEARS. Stonks always go up, rite?

Yup, but that's only true for ~20 year intervals. So, 20 years from now it'll likely be higher.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6519 on: March 17, 2020, 07:11:25 AM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6520 on: March 17, 2020, 07:26:22 AM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

As of yesterday, the worldwide death count is 7,100. So I'd say that panic has far surpassed the actual danger from the disease.

Thanks to this panic, fear is definitely back.

fireforfun

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6521 on: March 17, 2020, 07:50:50 AM »
Brady left the patriots, bottom is in

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6522 on: March 17, 2020, 07:59:47 AM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

As of yesterday, the worldwide death count is 7,100. So I'd say that panic has far surpassed the actual danger from the disease.

Thanks to this panic, fear is definitely back.

Median time from infection to death is 24 days. In uncontrolled countries, doubling time of the disease is 2-3 days. That's either 8 or 12 doublings. Death rate is 1% in well controlled situations (ie, enough hospital ventilators) up to 10% where the system has broken down.

So, with death counts - we're basically looking at infections which happened 24 days ago or more (well, remember it's "median"
 time, so half take longer)

Do the math. Take 7100 and double it 8 times. Then double it 12 times.

Fortunately, China, Singapore, SK, HK, etc locked it down early. Europe is late. USA is even later.


DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6523 on: March 17, 2020, 08:10:14 AM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

As of yesterday, the worldwide death count is 7,100. So I'd say that panic has far surpassed the actual danger from the disease.

Thanks to this panic, fear is definitely back.

Median time from infection to death is 24 days. In uncontrolled countries, doubling time of the disease is 2-3 days. That's either 8 or 12 doublings. Death rate is 1% in well controlled situations (ie, enough hospital ventilators) up to 10% where the system has broken down.

So, with death counts - we're basically looking at infections which happened 24 days ago or more (well, remember it's "median"
 time, so half take longer)

Do the math. Take 7100 and double it 8 times. Then double it 12 times.

Fortunately, China, Singapore, SK, HK, etc locked it down early. Europe is late. USA is even later.

So, doubling 7,100 eight times comes out to a little over 1.8 million. If the death count isn't at least 1.8 million in 24 days, can we agree that the widespread panic is overblown?

Or am I misunderstanding the math?

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6524 on: March 17, 2020, 08:17:59 AM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

As of yesterday, the worldwide death count is 7,100. So I'd say that panic has far surpassed the actual danger from the disease.

Thanks to this panic, fear is definitely back.

Median time from infection to death is 24 days. In uncontrolled countries, doubling time of the disease is 2-3 days. That's either 8 or 12 doublings. Death rate is 1% in well controlled situations (ie, enough hospital ventilators) up to 10% where the system has broken down.

So, with death counts - we're basically looking at infections which happened 24 days ago or more (well, remember it's "median"
 time, so half take longer)

Do the math. Take 7100 and double it 8 times. Then double it 12 times.

Fortunately, China, Singapore, SK, HK, etc locked it down early. Europe is late. USA is even later.

So, doubling 7,100 eight times comes out to a little over 1.8 million. If the death count isn't at least 1.8 million in 24 days, can we agree that the widespread panic is overblown?

Or am I misunderstanding the math?

You are misunderstanding it.  You have to double it 12 more times.  US death toll should be around 7.5 billion in a month.  People are literally rising from the grave just to die multiple times. 

(this thread is getting too serious)

bigblock440

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6525 on: March 17, 2020, 08:33:51 AM »
The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

As of yesterday, the worldwide death count is 7,100. So I'd say that panic has far surpassed the actual danger from the disease.

Thanks to this panic, fear is definitely back.

Median time from infection to death is 24 days. In uncontrolled countries, doubling time of the disease is 2-3 days. That's either 8 or 12 doublings. Death rate is 1% in well controlled situations (ie, enough hospital ventilators) up to 10% where the system has broken down.

So, with death counts - we're basically looking at infections which happened 24 days ago or more (well, remember it's "median"
 time, so half take longer)

Do the math. Take 7100 and double it 8 times. Then double it 12 times.

Fortunately, China, Singapore, SK, HK, etc locked it down early. Europe is late. USA is even later.

1,817,600 and 29,081,600

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6526 on: March 17, 2020, 08:47:27 AM »
So what you are saying is... all those FEMA death camp videos I saw on YouTube 10 years ago are true ?!?

Kem

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6527 on: March 17, 2020, 09:13:14 AM »
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

As of now, looks like this falls between Ebola & SARS in regards to infection spread.

And agreed, fear is currently back.  Guess we'll find out in the coming months if the level of broad fear is warranted.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 09:18:50 AM by Kem »

fireforfun

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6528 on: March 17, 2020, 10:16:19 AM »
Brady left the patriots, bottom is in

told ya

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6529 on: March 17, 2020, 10:48:23 AM »
If the death count isn't at least 1.8 million in 24 days, can we agree that the widespread panic is overblown?

Or am I misunderstanding the math?

No thatís not how any of this works.  You are acting like a heart attack patient who complains that the ambulance response was overblown because he ended up surviving.  Implementing social distancing just one day early can reduce cases by 40% and likely reduce deaths more than that if we can avoid hospitals being overrun

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/15/21180342/coronavirus-covid-19-us-social-distancing

Have you even taken a look at the hospital situation in Italy? 

I surely hope I can come back in a year and see you claim the response was overblown.  That would mean it worked perfectly
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 10:50:34 AM by dragoncar »

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6530 on: March 17, 2020, 11:07:25 AM »
If the death count isn't at least 1.8 million in 24 days, can we agree that the widespread panic is overblown?

Or am I misunderstanding the math?

No thatís not how any of this works.  You are acting like a heart attack patient who complains that the ambulance response was overblown because he ended up surviving.  Implementing social distancing just one day early can reduce cases by 40% and likely reduce deaths more than that if we can avoid hospitals being overrun

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/15/21180342/coronavirus-covid-19-us-social-distancing

Have you even taken a look at the hospital situation in Italy? 

I surely hope I can come back in a year and see you claim the response was overblown.  That would mean it worked perfectly

I've looked at the death count in Italy, which appears to be about...2,000.

Which is roughly about the number that people who die daily in Italy under normal circumstances.

Should precautions be taken? Yes. Should we panic and force an economic collapse? Probably not. Yet here we are.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6531 on: March 17, 2020, 11:48:41 AM »
Also how many will die indirectly of the panic and economic damage of closing everything?   Depression = more suicides, people will not be getting regular checkups to catch minor things before they become major

Longer term, will the economic damage slow down the medical technology that could save/extend life?  I know that a lot of biotech companies are dropping by a large amount in price, which for the smaller ones who are investigating new drugs, means they cannot get funding by issuing shares.  This might mean you don't get a cure for something similar to Hep C down the road.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6532 on: March 17, 2020, 12:03:34 PM »
If the death count isn't at least 1.8 million in 24 days, can we agree that the widespread panic is overblown?

Or am I misunderstanding the math?

No thatís not how any of this works.  You are acting like a heart attack patient who complains that the ambulance response was overblown because he ended up surviving.  Implementing social distancing just one day early can reduce cases by 40% and likely reduce deaths more than that if we can avoid hospitals being overrun

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/15/21180342/coronavirus-covid-19-us-social-distancing

Have you even taken a look at the hospital situation in Italy? 

I surely hope I can come back in a year and see you claim the response was overblown.  That would mean it worked perfectly

I've looked at the death count in Italy, which appears to be about...2,000.

Which is roughly about the number that people who die daily in Italy under normal circumstances.

Should precautions be taken? Yes. Should we panic and force an economic collapse? Probably not. Yet here we are.

This is not an apt comparison.  I didnít even ask about the death count in Italy I asked about access to emergency care.  Doctors are being forced to choose who lives and dies because there are not enough resources.  I certainly hope you volunteer to be the one who dies if you end up in a tent outside a crowded hospital after advocating against strict social distancing

But if you want to look only at deaths in Italy, there have been 2500 extra deaths confirmed due to cornovirus.  This doesnít include those that were not tested but died to to covid.  This does not include the people who died without covid but could not get adequate medical care because the hospitals are overwhelmed.  This does not include the deaths that will continue into the future. 

We arenít forcing any economic collapse.  These businesses would have to shut down anyway, and people dying is really terrible for the economy.  You all are acting like losing millions of people would not already going to tank the economy long term

YYK

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6533 on: March 17, 2020, 02:13:10 PM »
So...

Top is in?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6534 on: March 17, 2020, 03:35:15 PM »
So...

Top is in?

Yep, the S&P 500 ALMOST went below the level it was at in thorstach's original post. 

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6535 on: March 17, 2020, 03:50:24 PM »
So...

Top is in?

Yep, the S&P 500 ALMOST went below the level it was at in thorstach's original post.

Thanks guys! These two posts are like a breath of fresh air!

#MakeTopIsInGreatAgain

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6536 on: March 17, 2020, 04:34:26 PM »


I'm dying to know what they are worth at expiration...

Right now they would have been worth about $800,000

#Ouch.  I guess you win some you lose some.

magnet18

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6537 on: March 17, 2020, 08:13:50 PM »
So...

Top is in?

Yep, the S&P 500 ALMOST went below the level it was at in thorstach's original post.

LMAO
Funniest thing I've read all day.  Thanks for the perspective

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6538 on: March 17, 2020, 09:13:15 PM »
So...

Top is in?

Yep, the S&P 500 ALMOST went below the level it was at in thorstach's original post.

Dont forget dividends, because who doesn't auto reinvest them?

Still up about 6% since then at least.

Until tomorrow. Probably. Maybe.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6539 on: March 18, 2020, 01:21:17 AM »
Has anyone been watching treasuries lately? The top may well be in in the bond bubble.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6540 on: March 18, 2020, 07:38:16 AM »
Has anyone been watching treasuries lately? The top may well be in in the bond bubble.
I did notice BND is falling a bit in spite of lower interest rates. I'm guessing "higher probability of defaults" warrants some caution on bonds too. Maybe even US Treasury bonds.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6541 on: March 18, 2020, 08:52:55 AM »


I'm dying to know what they are worth at expiration...

Right now they would have been worth about $800,000

#Ouch.  I guess you win some you lose some.

It is still a valuable lesson that gambling in the market really doesn't work.  I had the money to do this, I had the (guess, foresight) to see that a crash was likely to happen, all the way back at the beginning of Feb, and yet I still was able to convince myself that I was wrong and everyone else was right.  The thing is, I was wrong.  At the time, we did not know that the virus would not fizzle out.  If it had, the market could easily have stayed above 3300 or gone on to new highs.

We still don't know for a fact that this will end up being a down year.   Anyone selling/buying right now outside of their norm is still gambling.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6542 on: March 18, 2020, 08:56:46 AM »
Has anyone been watching treasuries lately? The top may well be in in the bond bubble.
I did notice BND is falling a bit in spite of lower interest rates. I'm guessing "higher probability of defaults" warrants some caution on bonds too. Maybe even US Treasury bonds.

Yeah treasuries are moving unpredictably now.  Seems like people are expecting tight money even with fed actions

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6543 on: March 18, 2020, 10:00:14 AM »
I am trying to catch the falling knife but it keeps slipping through my fingers.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6544 on: March 18, 2020, 10:14:34 AM »
I am trying to catch the falling knife but it keeps slipping through my fingers.

I've always thought the falling knife analogy made it sound simple.

I think of it more like catching an epileptic porcupine rolling down a bumpy hill.

ice_beard

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6545 on: March 18, 2020, 10:18:08 AM »
The orange one is on TV.... here comes a nice dip.   

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6546 on: March 18, 2020, 10:22:31 AM »
Itís Wednesday and its Hammer Time!

The Dow is below 20k and SP below 2400 as I type this.

Hammer Time Top is In!

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6547 on: March 18, 2020, 10:52:45 AM »
Has anyone been watching treasuries lately? The top may well be in in the bond bubble.
I did notice BND is falling a bit in spite of lower interest rates. I'm guessing "higher probability of defaults" warrants some caution on bonds too. Maybe even US Treasury bonds.

Yeah treasuries are moving unpredictably now.  Seems like people are expecting tight money even with fed actions

Tighter Fed action??


ROFLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL


No, perhaps buyers are just questioning the sanity of lending their money to an already bankrupt entity that has signaled that there is no upper limit on their printing of new currency for a guaranteed real loss over the next 10-30 yrs.

Can't say I blame them!

If bonds are now moving in line WITH risk assets then this really is uncharted territory for us all.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6548 on: March 18, 2020, 11:25:25 AM »
I am trying to catch the falling knife but it keeps slipping through my fingers.

I've always thought the falling knife analogy made it sound simple.

I think of it more like catching an epileptic porcupine rolling down a bumpy hill.

That made me have to stifle an audible chuckle.  It's good my coworkers already know I'm crazy. 

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6549 on: March 18, 2020, 11:27:57 AM »
I think the S&P 500 is below the high on 4/11/2017 now. Thorstache nailed it! All hail the great thorstache!