Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 158956 times)

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6009
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1500 on: January 02, 2018, 01:54:51 PM »
By my count, we opened this morning at a new YTD high, and since then we've put in eleven new tops over the course of the day.  But the Google ticker only gives you updates every five minutes, so I probably missed a whole bunch.

Clean Shaven

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 645
  • Location: Wild Wild West
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1501 on: January 02, 2018, 02:10:57 PM »
Top* is in -- happy new year!






* hat

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6973
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1502 on: January 02, 2018, 02:20:11 PM »
By my count, we opened this morning at a new YTD high, and since then we've put in eleven new tops over the course of the day.  But the Google ticker only gives you updates every five minutes, so I probably missed a whole bunch.

SP500 up 0.83% today - given than this trend will continue throughout the year we can expect the SP500 to be up 209% by year's end.  SP500 will smash right through the 5,000 barrier - buckle up baby!  I'm ordering my model S tomorrow...
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

aboatguy

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1503 on: January 02, 2018, 02:33:02 PM »
New SP500 top  (2695.79) beat the old intra-day record and set new closing record....

Obviously the Top was not in


IMO TOP still not in.
Mike

DS

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
  • Age: 116
  • Location: Universe
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1504 on: January 02, 2018, 02:57:45 PM »
New SP500 top  (2695.79) beat the old intra-day record and set new closing record....

Obviously the Top was not in


IMO TOP still not in.
Mike

Top is in.

JAYSLOL

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 680
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1505 on: January 02, 2018, 04:21:15 PM »
Haven't heard from thorstach since last year, I need to know if the top is in yet this year

grandep

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 13
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1506 on: January 03, 2018, 07:39:44 AM »
S&P just hit 2700 for the first time.

Must be the top

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 500
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1507 on: January 03, 2018, 12:51:33 PM »
Haven't heard from thorstach since last year, I need to know if the top is in yet this year

He waits till there's a dip before he makes his next top call.


JAYSLOL

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 680
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1508 on: January 03, 2018, 12:55:33 PM »
Haven't heard from thorstach since last year, I need to know if the top is in yet this year

He waits till there's a dip before he makes his next top call.

I've noticed that, it seems to backfire for him as everyone else buys the dip

retireatbirth

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 193
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1509 on: January 03, 2018, 08:03:14 PM »
There were some false alarms recently, but the top is now in.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7447
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1510 on: January 04, 2018, 04:23:28 AM »
Haven't heard from thorstach since last year, I need to know if the top is in yet this year

He waits till there's a dip before he makes his next top call.

I've noticed that, it seems to backfire for him as everyone else buys the dip

What a difference 8 years makes:  https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

BTFT=buy the top (is in)

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6973
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1511 on: January 04, 2018, 08:40:33 AM »
Dow just broke 25,000.
Where's the top?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

DarkandStormy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 785
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1512 on: January 04, 2018, 08:55:15 AM »
TODAY is the top!  CAPE above 33.  That's the arbitrary number I picked as THE indicator the top is in!
The Chase Trifecta:
Earn 50,000 Ultimate Rewards points with Chase Sapphire Preferred - $4k spend in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/6/2MOVOLZCEJ
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom Unlimited - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/18/ENYF0FTS66
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/2/DBOP9XI9XT

Southwest Cards - Earn 50k miles for $2k spend in 3 months.
Premier -
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/224/JY2BMSDZJ2
Plus -
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/223/F3ZW8H140N

Recommended Cell Service - Google's Project Fi: https://g.co/fi/r/THK0WX

wienerdog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1513 on: January 04, 2018, 09:36:05 AM »
VXI on the retreat.  Cat isn't bouncing because of it being frozen.  New top is in.

OurTown

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 555
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1514 on: January 04, 2018, 10:35:49 AM »
Dogs of the Dow also frozen.  Top is in.

Clean Shaven

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 645
  • Location: Wild Wild West
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1515 on: January 04, 2018, 11:31:33 AM »
Dogs of the Dow also frozen.  Top is in.

Not just the dogs, but the entire stock market is frozen.

Tttttopppp   is innnnn...   

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/Wall+Street+USNY6175:27:US

via Imgflip Meme Generator

TheAnonOne

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1274
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1516 on: January 04, 2018, 11:43:08 AM »
Sp500- up nearly 2% in 3 days.

I will be un-pleased at any gain under 50 basis points a day now.

Unless, of course, the top is in.

DrF

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 466
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1517 on: January 04, 2018, 11:45:46 AM »
A stock market bubble historian says S&P needs to hit ~3400-3700 before we are in a classic bubble with a subsequent drop of ~50%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Looks like a great time to buy!

TheAnonOne

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1274
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1518 on: January 04, 2018, 11:54:44 AM »
A stock market bubble historian says S&P needs to hit ~3400-3700 before we are in a classic bubble with a subsequent drop of ~50%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Looks like a great time to buy!

It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.

CoffeeR

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 59
  • Location: Southwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1519 on: January 04, 2018, 12:51:38 PM »
It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.
Your definition of fun is different than mine :-). Even though I understand the sequence of return risk, I will become much more conservative approaching FIRE then most users here.

Mississippi Mudstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1571
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Danielsville, GA
    • A Riving Home - Ramblings of a Recusant Woodworker
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1520 on: January 04, 2018, 01:07:28 PM »
It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.
Your definition of fun is different than mine :-). Even though I understand the sequence of return risk, I will become much more conservative approaching FIRE then most users here.

If I achieved my FIRE number based on a 60% run-up in the market in a single year, you can bet your ass I'd be sitting tight, as would most others on this forum (I suspect). There is a difference between being resolute (ie, not selling off during a 40+% drop) and being robotic (quitting your job after a swift 40+% run-up).
Never. Give up.

My Woodworking Blog

DrF

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 466
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1521 on: January 04, 2018, 01:22:48 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.

maizeman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1815
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1522 on: January 04, 2018, 01:28:39 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.

@gerardc did a really nice analysis of this here on the forums back in July: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/cfiresim-severely-overestimates-success-rates-for-mustachians/msg1625362/#msg1625362

The key take away from his work is the bias towards retiring at market runups/peaks (and subsequent bias towards higher failure rates than a uniform distribution of retirement dates) is highest for people with low savings rates (see especially the second graph). As long as you're saving at least 50% it's not a major source of error. If you're saving 20%, yes you should be worried.

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1103
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1523 on: January 04, 2018, 01:31:31 PM »
Looks like the top might be in. I went ahead and retired today.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6973
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1524 on: January 04, 2018, 01:33:46 PM »
It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.
Your definition of fun is different than mine :-). Even though I understand the sequence of return risk, I will become much more conservative approaching FIRE then most users here.

If I achieved my FIRE number based on a 60% run-up in the market in a single year, you can bet your ass I'd be sitting tight, as would most others on this forum (I suspect). There is a difference between being resolute (ie, not selling off during a 40+% drop) and being robotic (quitting your job after a swift 40+% run-up).
60% in a calendar year?  It's never happened.  We haven't seen a 40%+ run-up since Eisenhower was in the White House and the US was the only major economy still standing.  The greatest run-up in most of our life-times was still way back in 1995 (+37.2%).
60% before the end of the year would be very interesting.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

DrF

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 466
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1525 on: January 04, 2018, 01:36:47 PM »
According to the article, a bubble has a ~60% run up in the last ~21 months of a bull.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6973
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1526 on: January 04, 2018, 02:11:31 PM »
not exactly the same thing, now is it?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

retireatbirth

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 193
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1527 on: January 04, 2018, 05:38:54 PM »
If the market goes up 2% every week this year, we'll be looking at Dow 75,000. Just something to think about.

dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1014
  • Age: 35
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1528 on: January 04, 2018, 05:47:12 PM »
If the market goes up 2% every week this year, we'll be looking at Dow 75,000. Just something to think about.

Are you not reading this tread????!?!?!!!111

The market isn't going to go up because Top is in!!!!!!

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5751
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1529 on: January 04, 2018, 05:54:12 PM »
Yes. Top is in. Tip top.

anisotropy

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 312
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1530 on: January 04, 2018, 06:22:52 PM »
A stock market bubble historian says S&P needs to hit ~3400-3700 before we are in a classic bubble with a subsequent drop of ~50%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Looks like a great time to buy!

Grantham has been a bear longer than I could remember; even after he "called the bottom" in march 2009, he continued his bearish ways and produced below-benchmark (funny, due to his funds are marketed as "benchmark free") returns in the years followed. You can see the performance of the fund (GBMFX) on Morningstar. Over 10 year period his fund outperformed peers substantially, but still didn't manage to beat the "moderate risk" benchmark. Here is an article about him from 2015.

https://www.ft.com/content/5d4256e8-39ec-11e5-bbd1-b37bc06f590c

Your friendly and conniving resident prophet has declared the melt up is already upon us, so hold on, the ride isn't over yet.

aboatguy

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1531 on: January 04, 2018, 07:49:42 PM »

facepalm

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 187
  • Location: California
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1532 on: January 04, 2018, 10:44:58 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.
I can't retire yet . . . therefore top is not in yet. :-)

Exflyboy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4754
  • Age: 56
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1533 on: January 04, 2018, 10:58:59 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.
I can't retire yet . . . therefore top is not in yet. :-)

Thats a great measure..:)

soccerluvof4

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3174
  • Location: Artic Midwest
  • Retired at 50
    • My Journal
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1534 on: January 05, 2018, 04:20:34 AM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.
I can't retire yet . . . therefore top is not in yet. :-)

Thats a great measure..:)



One thing about the internet you can find pretty much an article to support any theory!  And half of them are just to damn long and boring to read...
" In life you don't get what you deserve you get what you negotiate"

aboatguy

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1535 on: January 05, 2018, 07:35:51 AM »
3 minutes into the trading day and DOW S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs.....

train is be speeding up hopefully clear track ahead



However, I agree with Heisenberg, TOP is not in!



« Last Edit: January 05, 2018, 07:47:23 AM by aboatguy »

aboatguy

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1536 on: January 05, 2018, 07:49:53 AM »


Mr. Boh

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 71
  • Location: The Land of Pleasant Living
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1537 on: January 05, 2018, 02:16:47 PM »
Top is in again! S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000. There's a top in every direction. I think I'm starting to feel a little bit of vertigo.

wienerdog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1538 on: January 05, 2018, 02:20:32 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Clean Shaven

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 645
  • Location: Wild Wild West
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1539 on: January 05, 2018, 02:39:18 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach toppled.


Optimiser

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 484
  • Age: 34
  • Location: PNW
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1540 on: January 05, 2018, 03:14:24 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Wherever they are I'm sure they are feeling depressed about all of the gains they missed out on.

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2789
  • Location: Texas
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1541 on: January 05, 2018, 04:36:09 PM »
Top is in again! S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000. There's a top in every direction. I think I'm starting to feel a little bit of vertigo.

Wife sold 100% of her VTSAX!



.... because she's converting to VTI for portability...
Credit card signup bonuses:

$150 bonus on $500 spend for Chase Freedom:
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/2/MU4TDQ1N3K

$50 bonus (no min spend, just use it once) plus double all cash back at the end of 1 year for Discover, including the initial $50:
https://refer.discover.com/s/37e3u

$500 bonus on $4,000 spend for Chase Sapphire Preferred:
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/6/Z8JIP66H7G

PathtoFIRE

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 350
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Dallas
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1542 on: January 08, 2018, 11:12:22 AM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!

Maenad

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 166
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1543 on: January 08, 2018, 12:28:58 PM »
So once a correction/bear market actually starts we'll get The Second Coming of Thorstach?

dougules

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 983
  • Location: AL
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1544 on: January 08, 2018, 04:05:22 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!

The the top and the bottom are one.  There is a top and a bottom in every moment simultaneously.  You must find your inner top and set it free into the world. 

dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1014
  • Age: 35
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1545 on: January 08, 2018, 05:51:51 PM »
Red dow. Top is in.

aboatguy

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1546 on: January 08, 2018, 06:20:27 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!


Just kidding I'm not Thorstach and the Top is not in !

Soon the new top will be a 2750 SP 500!
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 06:26:20 PM by aboatguy »

aboatguy

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 64
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1547 on: January 09, 2018, 02:27:42 PM »
DOW, NASDAQ UP, SP500 new closing record!  Top is not in.

HOO YAA,   2751;  2751, HOO YAAAAAAA!



Now are we in a long bull market or the start of a bubble?  IMHO its still time to buy   
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 02:30:25 PM by aboatguy »

ixtap

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 876
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1548 on: January 09, 2018, 02:43:51 PM »
DOW, NASDAQ UP, SP500 new closing record!  Top is not in.

HOO YAA,   2751;  2751, HOO YAAAAAAA!



Now are we in a long bull market or the start of a bubble?  IMHO its still time to buy

The time to buy is when the paycheck comes in.

DarkandStormy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 785
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: Top is in
« Reply #1549 on: January 09, 2018, 03:02:05 PM »
DOW, NASDAQ UP, SP500 new closing record!  Top is not in.

HOO YAA,   2751;  2751, HOO YAAAAAAA!



Now are we in a long bull market or the start of a bubble?  IMHO its still time to buy

Some have speculated we're in full blown "melt up" phase.  Who knows.
The Chase Trifecta:
Earn 50,000 Ultimate Rewards points with Chase Sapphire Preferred - $4k spend in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/6/2MOVOLZCEJ
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom Unlimited - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/18/ENYF0FTS66
Earn a $150 bonus with Chase Freedom - only $500 spend needed in 3 months.
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/2/DBOP9XI9XT

Southwest Cards - Earn 50k miles for $2k spend in 3 months.
Premier -
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/224/JY2BMSDZJ2
Plus -
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/223/F3ZW8H140N

Recommended Cell Service - Google's Project Fi: https://g.co/fi/r/THK0WX