Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 677093 times)

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1500 on: January 03, 2018, 08:03:14 PM »
There were some false alarms recently, but the top is now in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1501 on: January 04, 2018, 04:23:28 AM »
Haven't heard from thorstach since last year, I need to know if the top is in yet this year

He waits till there's a dip before he makes his next top call.

I've noticed that, it seems to backfire for him as everyone else buys the dip

What a difference 8 years makes:  https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

BTFT=buy the top (is in)

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1502 on: January 04, 2018, 08:40:33 AM »
Dow just broke 25,000.
Where's the top?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1503 on: January 04, 2018, 08:55:15 AM »
TODAY is the top!  CAPE above 33.  That's the arbitrary number I picked as THE indicator the top is in!

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1504 on: January 04, 2018, 09:36:05 AM »
VXI on the retreat.  Cat isn't bouncing because of it being frozen.  New top is in.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1505 on: January 04, 2018, 10:35:49 AM »
Dogs of the Dow also frozen.  Top is in.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1506 on: January 04, 2018, 11:31:33 AM »
Dogs of the Dow also frozen.  Top is in.

Not just the dogs, but the entire stock market is frozen.

Tttttopppp   is innnnn...   

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/Wall+Street+USNY6175:27:US

via Imgflip Meme Generator

TheAnonOne

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1507 on: January 04, 2018, 11:43:08 AM »
Sp500- up nearly 2% in 3 days.

I will be un-pleased at any gain under 50 basis points a day now.

Unless, of course, the top is in.

DrF

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1508 on: January 04, 2018, 11:45:46 AM »
A stock market bubble historian says S&P needs to hit ~3400-3700 before we are in a classic bubble with a subsequent drop of ~50%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Looks like a great time to buy!

TheAnonOne

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1509 on: January 04, 2018, 11:54:44 AM »
A stock market bubble historian says S&P needs to hit ~3400-3700 before we are in a classic bubble with a subsequent drop of ~50%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Looks like a great time to buy!

It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1510 on: January 04, 2018, 01:07:28 PM »
It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.
Your definition of fun is different than mine :-). Even though I understand the sequence of return risk, I will become much more conservative approaching FIRE then most users here.

If I achieved my FIRE number based on a 60% run-up in the market in a single year, you can bet your ass I'd be sitting tight, as would most others on this forum (I suspect). There is a difference between being resolute (ie, not selling off during a 40+% drop) and being robotic (quitting your job after a swift 40+% run-up).

DrF

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1511 on: January 04, 2018, 01:22:48 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1512 on: January 04, 2018, 01:28:39 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.

@gerardc did a really nice analysis of this here on the forums back in July: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/cfiresim-severely-overestimates-success-rates-for-mustachians/msg1625362/#msg1625362

The key take away from his work is the bias towards retiring at market runups/peaks (and subsequent bias towards higher failure rates than a uniform distribution of retirement dates) is highest for people with low savings rates (see especially the second graph). As long as you're saving at least 50% it's not a major source of error. If you're saving 20%, yes you should be worried.

MasterStache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1513 on: January 04, 2018, 01:31:31 PM »
Looks like the top might be in. I went ahead and retired today.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1514 on: January 04, 2018, 01:33:46 PM »
It would be really fun to watch the market spike a whopping 60% in a year and FIRE half of us only to take it away in that very same year! Can't wait.
Your definition of fun is different than mine :-). Even though I understand the sequence of return risk, I will become much more conservative approaching FIRE then most users here.

If I achieved my FIRE number based on a 60% run-up in the market in a single year, you can bet your ass I'd be sitting tight, as would most others on this forum (I suspect). There is a difference between being resolute (ie, not selling off during a 40+% drop) and being robotic (quitting your job after a swift 40+% run-up).
60% in a calendar year?  It's never happened.  We haven't seen a 40%+ run-up since Eisenhower was in the White House and the US was the only major economy still standing.  The greatest run-up in most of our life-times was still way back in 1995 (+37.2%).
60% before the end of the year would be very interesting.

DrF

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1515 on: January 04, 2018, 01:36:47 PM »
According to the article, a bubble has a ~60% run up in the last ~21 months of a bull.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1516 on: January 04, 2018, 02:11:31 PM »
not exactly the same thing, now is it?

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1517 on: January 04, 2018, 05:38:54 PM »
If the market goes up 2% every week this year, we'll be looking at Dow 75,000. Just something to think about.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1518 on: January 04, 2018, 05:47:12 PM »
If the market goes up 2% every week this year, we'll be looking at Dow 75,000. Just something to think about.

Are you not reading this tread????!?!?!!!111

The market isn't going to go up because Top is in!!!!!!

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1519 on: January 04, 2018, 05:54:12 PM »
Yes. Top is in. Tip top.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1520 on: January 04, 2018, 06:22:52 PM »
A stock market bubble historian says S&P needs to hit ~3400-3700 before we are in a classic bubble with a subsequent drop of ~50%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-brace-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up-jeremy-grantham-2018-01-03

Looks like a great time to buy!

Grantham has been a bear longer than I could remember; even after he "called the bottom" in march 2009, he continued his bearish ways and produced below-benchmark (funny, due to his funds are marketed as "benchmark free") returns in the years followed. You can see the performance of the fund (GBMFX) on Morningstar. Over 10 year period his fund outperformed peers substantially, but still didn't manage to beat the "moderate risk" benchmark. Here is an article about him from 2015.

https://www.ft.com/content/5d4256e8-39ec-11e5-bbd1-b37bc06f590c

Your friendly and conniving resident prophet has declared the melt up is already upon us, so hold on, the ride isn't over yet.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1521 on: January 04, 2018, 07:49:42 PM »

facepalm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1522 on: January 04, 2018, 10:44:58 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.
I can't retire yet . . . therefore top is not in yet. :-)

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1523 on: January 04, 2018, 10:58:59 PM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.
I can't retire yet . . . therefore top is not in yet. :-)

Thats a great measure..:)

soccerluvof4

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1524 on: January 05, 2018, 04:20:34 AM »
Big ERN's analysis showing that retirees disproportionately retire at the peak of a bull market.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/12/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-22-endogenous-retirement-timing/

The top is in... now you can retire.
I can't retire yet . . . therefore top is not in yet. :-)

Thats a great measure..:)



One thing about the internet you can find pretty much an article to support any theory!  And half of them are just to damn long and boring to read...

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1525 on: January 05, 2018, 07:35:51 AM »
3 minutes into the trading day and DOW S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs.....

train is be speeding up hopefully clear track ahead



However, I agree with Heisenberg, TOP is not in!



« Last Edit: January 05, 2018, 07:47:23 AM by aboatguy »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1526 on: January 05, 2018, 07:49:53 AM »


Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1527 on: January 05, 2018, 02:16:47 PM »
Top is in again! S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000. There's a top in every direction. I think I'm starting to feel a little bit of vertigo.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1528 on: January 05, 2018, 02:20:32 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1529 on: January 05, 2018, 02:39:18 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach toppled.


Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1530 on: January 05, 2018, 03:14:24 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Wherever they are I'm sure they are feeling depressed about all of the gains they missed out on.

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1531 on: January 05, 2018, 04:36:09 PM »
Top is in again! S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000. There's a top in every direction. I think I'm starting to feel a little bit of vertigo.

Wife sold 100% of her VTSAX!



.... because she's converting to VTI for portability...

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1532 on: January 08, 2018, 11:12:22 AM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1533 on: January 08, 2018, 12:28:58 PM »
So once a correction/bear market actually starts we'll get The Second Coming of Thorstach?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1534 on: January 08, 2018, 04:05:22 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!

The the top and the bottom are one.  There is a top and a bottom in every moment simultaneously.  You must find your inner top and set it free into the world. 

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1535 on: January 08, 2018, 05:51:51 PM »
Red dow. Top is in.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1536 on: January 08, 2018, 06:20:27 PM »
Where is thorstach? Did they give up predicting the top?

Thorstach never went away, Thorstach is here among us, dwelling inside each and every one of us, guiding our thoughts, animating our actions. I am Thorstach, you are Thorstach, we are all brothers and sisters in Thorstach, and we are all called to witness to the truth, the truth that the top is here on Earth right now!


Just kidding I'm not Thorstach and the Top is not in !

Soon the new top will be a 2750 SP 500!
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 06:26:20 PM by aboatguy »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1537 on: January 09, 2018, 02:27:42 PM »
DOW, NASDAQ UP, SP500 new closing record!  Top is not in.

HOO YAA,   2751;  2751, HOO YAAAAAAA!



Now are we in a long bull market or the start of a bubble?  IMHO its still time to buy   
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 02:30:25 PM by aboatguy »

ixtap

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1538 on: January 09, 2018, 02:43:51 PM »
DOW, NASDAQ UP, SP500 new closing record!  Top is not in.

HOO YAA,   2751;  2751, HOO YAAAAAAA!



Now are we in a long bull market or the start of a bubble?  IMHO its still time to buy

The time to buy is when the paycheck comes in.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1539 on: January 09, 2018, 03:02:05 PM »
DOW, NASDAQ UP, SP500 new closing record!  Top is not in.

HOO YAA,   2751;  2751, HOO YAAAAAAA!



Now are we in a long bull market or the start of a bubble?  IMHO its still time to buy

Some have speculated we're in full blown "melt up" phase.  Who knows.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1540 on: January 09, 2018, 03:26:57 PM »
Some have speculated we're in full blown "melt up" phase.

What does that even mean?  Wtf is a "melt up"?

I understand a melt down.  That term refers to a specific type of nuclear fuel regulation failure in old style power plans, where temperatures got too high and caused fuel rods to deform or even liquify, and thus relocate to a lower portion of the pool.  Metaphorically, it refers to an organizational control mistake that causes runaway catastrophic system failure.

But a melt up?  That just seems stupid, like someone was trying to ascribe negative connotation to rising prices in a profitable market and was too lazy to come up with a metaphor that had any sort of logical underpinnings.  If you think prices are to high, you can call it irrational exuberance or a joy tornado or a raging bull on PCP.  Those are at least descriptive of what is happening and sort of convey why you're unhappy about it, without making up nonsensical phrases that just confused people. 

Can I start calling it the market of colorless green ideas that sleep furiously?  That makes just as much sense.

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1541 on: January 09, 2018, 04:00:13 PM »
Apparently "melt up" is a genuine term of the art. I didn't know it either.

Quote
A dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains created by a melt up are considered an unreliable indication of the direction the market is ultimately headed, and melt ups often precede melt downs.

... so essentially a bubble?

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/melt-up.asp

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1542 on: January 09, 2018, 04:31:14 PM »
Apparently "melt up" is a genuine term of the art. I didn't know it either.

I recognize that it is becoming more widely used, and I concede that widespread usage is the only criteria for an idiom's legitimacy.  It's still stupid.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1543 on: January 09, 2018, 04:33:54 PM »
But is the term "melt up" or the current state of the cryptocurrency market more legitimate?

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1544 on: January 09, 2018, 04:37:33 PM »
Some have speculated we're in full blown "melt up" phase.

What does that even mean?  Wtf is a "melt up"?

I understand a melt down.  That term refers to a specific type of nuclear fuel regulation failure in old style power plans, where temperatures got too high and caused fuel rods to deform or even liquify, and thus relocate to a lower portion of the pool.  Metaphorically, it refers to an organizational control mistake that causes runaway catastrophic system failure.

But a melt up?  That just seems stupid, like someone was trying to ascribe negative connotation to rising prices in a profitable market and was too lazy to come up with a metaphor that had any sort of logical underpinnings.  If you think prices are to high, you can call it irrational exuberance or a joy tornado or a raging bull on PCP.  Those are at least descriptive of what is happening and sort of convey why you're unhappy about it, without making up nonsensical phrases that just confused people. 

Can I start calling it the market of colorless green ideas that sleep furiously?  That makes just as much sense.

Exactly what maizeman posted. As was foretold by I, the friendly and conniving resident prophet, way back in days long forgotten. It is here (some months ago, reply #939).

Everything we make now is not "real", as in it will disappear when the next crash hits, but fear not, the bagholders passive crowd will hold our bags as we make our orderly exits. Party on and live it up, pay no heed to the smell of storm in the air...yet.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1545 on: January 09, 2018, 04:46:54 PM »
Exactly what maizeman posted. As was foretold by I, the friendly and conniving resident prophet, way back in days long forgotten. It is here (some months ago, reply #939).

Post 939 was October tenth.  You predicted that a nine year long bull market would last at least three more months?  Yea, you're a real clairvoyant.

What about the rest of your predictions in that post?  Where's that labor anomaly?  Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market?

Forgive me if I don't rush out to buy your newsletter.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1546 on: January 09, 2018, 05:38:19 PM »

Post 939 was October tenth.  You predicted that a nine year long bull market would last at least three more months?  Yea, you're a real clairvoyant.

What about the rest of your predictions in that post?  Where's that labor anomaly?  Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market?

Forgive me if I don't rush out to buy your newsletter.

I will copy and paste my oct10th post here, and go over it with you:

Minions,

Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?

Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:

"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. "  -- April 26th

And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!

The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.

There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!

A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.

Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Please do not mark the beginning of a bull market immediately after the low of the preceding bear market. The definition is not clear cut I understand, but bull markets should only be recognized after it has surpassed previous highs. Ie, the current bull market actually began in 2013, making it about 5 years old. Not important to the current topic at hand just thought I would mention it, because I am a dic.

2. Bull market lasting three more months is very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)!
To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it? Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong. Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.

3. I am assuming you meant "wage growth anomaly" when you mentioned labor anomaly, otherwise I am not sure what you meant. The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker clocked the wage growth to be 3.2% by Nov 2017 (3MA), pretty crap, sorry to disappoint but it was enough to convince the Fed to step on the breaks in Dec. Or perhaps the Fed did not spot nor recognize any wage growth anomaly and just decided to break for other (no?) reasons.

4.  Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market??
So two things here. Growth is slowing, whether you look at wage growth or some other measures. In fact, housing growth peaked in 2014, for example. As for souring the market, I said:
 the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious.
If anything, I explicitly stated in April the slower expansion would signal a higher market. Market sours not because of weakness, but from excessive strength. Counterintuitive right? But we are not rational, which is precisely why we should begin to look for (but not take) exits while we mingle with potential bagholders at this grand party. Edit: I am actually quite annoyed about this, I have been one of the most bullish posters in this thread, explicitly stating not only was top not in, but a melt-up scenario was very likely. Yet people continue to think I am bearish?? Learn2Read much?

5. I have no newspaper to sell to you. In fact, don't ever buy those. Finally, I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 09:58:30 AM by anisotropy »

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1547 on: January 09, 2018, 07:01:31 PM »
@ anisotropy

You had me at "minions"...

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1548 on: January 09, 2018, 07:01:50 PM »
something something something

Thorstach?

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1549 on: January 09, 2018, 07:25:45 PM »
Some have speculated we're in full blown "melt up" phase.

What does that even mean?  Wtf is a "melt up"?

Melt up seemed self explanatory to me.
 Here's an article that uses it, it has several correlations that precede some major,
if I may, Melt Downs. I found it very interesting and would like to see all these correlations
followed somewhere.
I saw this link in another MMM thread.
https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/viewpoints---bracing-yourself-for-a-possible-near-term-melt-up.pdf?sfvrsn=2