Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 938070 times)

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4850 on: August 05, 2019, 07:09:26 AM »
Dow <25k before end of the month.......let's do it!

<25k wouldn't even be the lowest point of 2019. Bring on <20k!

freedomfightergal

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4851 on: August 05, 2019, 07:51:43 AM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4852 on: August 05, 2019, 08:11:40 AM »
I went all cash last week in my Robinhood race from $2500 to $250,000 contest.   I am at 271% gain and wanted to see what happened this week in the market.

Now I am getting ready to feast!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4853 on: August 05, 2019, 08:55:26 AM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..

It's going to be at least a year till we see new tops.

Rdy2Fire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4854 on: August 05, 2019, 09:17:15 AM »
Top was in last week!

Lets see how low this goes....sold half my VTI last week at $153.03, it's down to $146.42 now..

It's going to be at least a year till we see new tops.

Maybe longer.. last few days have been crushing and today is going to be brutal

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4855 on: August 05, 2019, 09:23:27 AM »
As an icon of market timing, this week I sold...nothing.

I bought...groceries.

Grocery top is in.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4856 on: August 05, 2019, 09:40:22 AM »
I sold everything







that we weren't using anymore in a yard sale this summer

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4857 on: August 05, 2019, 10:20:05 AM »
As an icon of market timing, this week I sold...nothing.

I bought...groceries.

Grocery top is in.

I bought groceries last week, and after a weekend of cooking and eating the grocery top was definitely in.  Now everything's going down the toilet.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4858 on: August 05, 2019, 01:22:04 PM »

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4859 on: August 05, 2019, 02:12:49 PM »
So 3025 was the all time top.. I was rich once...;)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4860 on: August 05, 2019, 02:27:41 PM »
I was going to say I wish I sold last week for this months living expenses.  But then I realized my gold and treasuries are at a multi-year high so I guess Iíll just sell those instead!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4861 on: August 05, 2019, 02:29:32 PM »
Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

FIRE@50

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4862 on: August 05, 2019, 02:40:37 PM »
Looks like a big top sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4863 on: August 05, 2019, 02:47:35 PM »
Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

There have been at least 30 times since 1950. The chart I looked at only showed the worst daily drops in each calendar year, so it could have happened more than once in any of those years. A separate chart shows that 4 of the 20 worst days were in 2008, so it's safe to assume that it happens often enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#cite_note-Spindices-2

And yes, Wikipedia is as reliable a source as thorstach is.

I'm surprised that the Christmas Eve drop last year wasn't even 3%.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4864 on: August 05, 2019, 02:53:32 PM »
Looks like a big top sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite.

Well, not really. My exposure to equities is relatively small. Not as small as Iíd like tonite, but pretty small as compared to a lot of other people. So yeah Iíll be taking a bite. But more of a nibble, really. It might be the sale Iíve been waiting for.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4865 on: August 05, 2019, 05:09:34 PM »
Nice to see even stocks are doing a back to school sale

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4866 on: August 05, 2019, 05:19:22 PM »
Well, Thorstach called it...and called it and called it and called it.

Gotta give him props.

Loren Ver

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4867 on: August 05, 2019, 06:07:39 PM »
Hurray!  This week just happened to be the week that our HSA got moved away from terrible company that wants to steal all my money to fidelity.  So gonna buy low.  It is also the week my little pension check came and is now on its way to vanguard.  Hopefully it will make it to the account while thing are still low. 

I LOVE a good sale :).

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4868 on: August 05, 2019, 07:29:57 PM »
half of me is excited that its triple paycheck month and I will potentially have (3) 401k buys this month at a discount.
the other half of me is disappointed that triple paycheck month will not make my NW spreadsheet higher than a usual month.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4869 on: August 05, 2019, 09:02:45 PM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4870 on: August 05, 2019, 09:32:41 PM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

But then we'd need an update to the Trinity Study!  This would be like saying we have a democracy, but Republicans will never be elected ever again post-2020.  Uncharted territory.  Thorstach would be pleased.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4871 on: August 05, 2019, 10:05:33 PM »
I am calling the top for long term government bonds, as tracked by EDV. It was back in December 2008. All down hill forever from there.

But then we'd need an update to the Trinity Study!  This would be like saying we have a democracy, but Republicans will never be elected ever again post-2020.  Uncharted territory.  Thorstach would be pleased.

Well, he did say the Top was in, maybe he meant for everything.  Civilization Top is in?  Environmental Top is in?  Known Reality Top is in?  All of the above?

habaneroNorway

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4872 on: August 06, 2019, 01:45:23 AM »
Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

Drops of 3% or more has happened this often per decade since the 60s (index was created in 1957). And yesterday doesn't count as one as it was 2.98% down, not 3% ;)

60s    2
70s    3
80s  13
90s    9
00s   52
10s   19

total 98

>4% drop has happened 41 days
>5% drop has happened 22 days
>6% drop 15 days
>7% drop 6 days
>8% drop 5 days
>9% drop 2 days
>10% drop 1 day


On the contrary, it was up >3% on the day 103 days in total.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 05:52:16 AM by habaneroNorway »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4873 on: August 06, 2019, 11:07:40 AM »
Does anyone have access to one of those fancypants market data services? I'm curious how often the S&P 500 drops 3% in one day.

Drops of 3% or more has happened this often per decade since the 60s (index was created in 1957). And yesterday doesn't count as one as it was 2.98% down, not 3% ;)

60s    2
70s    3
80s  13
90s    9
00s   52
10s   19

total 98

>4% drop has happened 41 days
>5% drop has happened 22 days
>6% drop 15 days
>7% drop 6 days
>8% drop 5 days
>9% drop 2 days
>10% drop 1 day


On the contrary, it was up >3% on the day 103 days in total.

It's a good thing we have thorstach to tell us which of those are up next. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4874 on: August 06, 2019, 11:16:49 AM »
Everyone enjoying this dead cat bounce?  Top still in! 

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4875 on: August 06, 2019, 11:50:54 AM »
Arg, now things go on sale? Iím about to go out on maternity leave and canít have 401k contributions taken from my leave pay, so I already front-loaded everything for the year.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4876 on: August 06, 2019, 12:37:05 PM »
Everyone enjoying this dead cat bounce?  Top still in!

No! I wanted it to keep going down until my buy this Friday.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4877 on: August 06, 2019, 01:26:49 PM »
Arg, now things go on sale? Iím about to go out on maternity leave and canít have 401k contributions taken from my leave pay, so I already front-loaded everything for the year.

My guess is you'll get another bite of the cherry in 2020. Trump doesn't want a solution to the trade war (that he started) until its firmly in the minds of the voting electorate.. So that means it will all get resolved around August to October next year... Probably August so the stock market will rally strongly into the election.

Thats my prediction anyway..:)

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4878 on: August 07, 2019, 07:29:30 AM »
The headlines are giving me quite a laugh. Complete 180 from the previous day of doom and gloom.
"The case for why stocks could climb 20%"
"One simple chart points to a stock market rebound"
"S&P 500 Stocks Analysts Say Are Now Big Bargains" [edit: I just realized this is a stock-picking article...]
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 07:32:14 AM by RWD »

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4879 on: August 07, 2019, 07:34:45 AM »
The headlines are giving me quite a laugh. Complete 180 from the previous day of doom and gloom.
"The case for why stocks could climb 20%"
"One simple chart points to a stock market rebound"
"S&P 500 Stocks Analysts Say Are Now Big Bargains" [edit: I just realized this is a stock-picking article...]

At some point on this very thread I posted two simultaneous headlines from CNBC:  one saying the market was about to crash, the other saying we are expecting a continued bull run.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4880 on: August 07, 2019, 08:25:47 AM »
At some point on this very thread I posted two simultaneous headlines from CNBC:  one saying the market was about to crash, the other saying we are expecting a continued bull run.

That way they can always point to an article showing how they were right! They also get to rile up both sides of commenters and get the most clicks.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4881 on: August 07, 2019, 08:40:12 AM »
so the s&p 500 is basically were it was back in January 2018.
17 months ago.
but the market is high
we must be due a massive drop.
the market keeps on getting higher all the time.
its gonna collapse.
the top is innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4882 on: August 07, 2019, 09:23:23 AM »
so the s&p 500 is basically were it was back in January 2018.
17 months ago.
but the market is high
we must be due a massive drop.
the market keeps on getting higher all the time.
its gonna collapse.
the top is innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4883 on: August 07, 2019, 10:05:04 AM »


How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore?

If I knew that I'd probably be a trader. with other peoples money.



vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4884 on: August 07, 2019, 10:09:59 AM »
so the s&p 500 is basically were it was back in January 2018.
17 months ago.
but the market is high
we must be due a massive drop.
the market keeps on getting higher all the time.
its gonna collapse.
the top is innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

But market psychology doesn't work like that. Most people don't buy what is getting cheaper, they buy what is going up. So if the market goes sideways for a few years, people will eventually lose their lustre for stocks, even as they are getting year by year cheaper. They will eventually get fed up of they disappointing returns in the stock market and move their money into something that is going up.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4885 on: August 07, 2019, 10:16:26 AM »
This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

Same people? Did someone call?

I guess I qualify as one of the ďsameĒ people. Because yes, I do think equities in the US are very expensive both historically and as compared to other countries. You can look up the ratios. Price to sales, PE, CAPE, whatever you want. Youíre going to find that US equities are expensive. Whether theyíre worth it or not is of course a subjective determination. On this website and on this thread in particular, whether US equities are ďworth itĒ or not is a resounding YES!!

For me the answer is generally NO. But not entirely. Being 100% sure of anything in investing is a good way to get your ass handed to you. So yes, I do have some US equities. I just donít view them as all that great. One of the less ugly girls at the dance perhaps.


Turkey Leg

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4886 on: August 07, 2019, 10:41:39 AM »
Treetop top is in!



Stock market top, on the other hand, got thorstach'd. #BottomIsIn

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4887 on: August 07, 2019, 03:35:39 PM »
Treetop top is in!



Stock market top, on the other hand, got thorstach'd. #BottomIsIn

I think you can top a treetop top with topped trees. Topped trees top is in!


Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4888 on: August 07, 2019, 05:21:37 PM »
This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

Same people? Did someone call?

I guess I qualify as one of the ďsameĒ people. Because yes, I do think equities in the US are very expensive both historically and as compared to other countries. You can look up the ratios. Price to sales, PE, CAPE, whatever you want. Youíre going to find that US equities are expensive. Whether theyíre worth it or not is of course a subjective determination. On this website and on this thread in particular, whether US equities are ďworth itĒ or not is a resounding YES!!

For me the answer is generally NO. But not entirely. Being 100% sure of anything in investing is a good way to get your ass handed to you. So yes, I do have some US equities. I just donít view them as all that great. One of the less ugly girls at the dance perhaps.

Not all sectors are expensive though.   The biotech/medical sector has PE near historical lows, mostly because of current politics.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4889 on: August 08, 2019, 11:08:41 AM »
Where is this crash I was promised? It drops for a few days, and now it's climbing again?

The top is a lie

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4890 on: August 08, 2019, 11:57:06 AM »
This is why I can never figure out why people keep saying the market is overpriced. I'm assuming these are the same people that put a ton of faith in PE ratios.

How long does the market need to be flat for it to not be overpriced anymore? If I've gotta wait until 2022, I'm probably going to be disappointed.

Same people? Did someone call?

I guess I qualify as one of the ďsameĒ people. Because yes, I do think equities in the US are very expensive both historically and as compared to other countries. You can look up the ratios. Price to sales, PE, CAPE, whatever you want. Youíre going to find that US equities are expensive. Whether theyíre worth it or not is of course a subjective determination. On this website and on this thread in particular, whether US equities are ďworth itĒ or not is a resounding YES!!

For me the answer is generally NO. But not entirely. Being 100% sure of anything in investing is a good way to get your ass handed to you. So yes, I do have some US equities. I just donít view them as all that great. One of the less ugly girls at the dance perhaps.

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4891 on: August 08, 2019, 12:07:25 PM »
Where is this crash I was promised? It drops for a few days, and now it's climbing again?

The top is a lie

You want the Top!?  You canít handle the Top!

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4892 on: August 08, 2019, 01:26:20 PM »
But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?
I'm at 100% equities, minus this years cash withdrawals.
International is about 7%, mostly because I've been lazy about the allocation change.
Now in the withdrawal phase and "close enough", with even higher laze factor.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4893 on: August 08, 2019, 01:36:55 PM »
But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?
I'm at 100% equities, minus this years cash withdrawals.
International is about 7%, mostly because I've been lazy about the allocation change.
Now in the withdrawal phase and "close enough", with even higher laze factor.

Iím sure some are, but I donít think itís a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesnít mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 01:38:31 PM by dragoncar »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4894 on: August 08, 2019, 02:40:05 PM »
But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?
I'm at 100% equities, minus this years cash withdrawals.
International is about 7%, mostly because I've been lazy about the allocation change.
Now in the withdrawal phase and "close enough", with even higher laze factor.

We've been putting our money into VTWAX.  Why not be invested in Airbus and Boeing at the same time?

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4895 on: August 08, 2019, 02:55:57 PM »

But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

Posting your brokerage statement isnít required here so we really donít know. We do see enough of the ďput it all in VTSAXĒ sentiment that it makes you wonder. The confirmation bias is strong at MMM forums. Makes it interesting for those of us who think all VTSAX is a meh strategy.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4896 on: August 08, 2019, 03:02:57 PM »
But is anyone here on MMM actually 100% US stocks with their asset allocation?  I know I'm at 80/20 Stocks/Bonds and then within the Stocks I'm 70/30 US/International.  I figured this was a pretty common approach around here, isn't it?

I like to say we are, but like dragoncar mentioned, that's pretty impossible. As far as investments go, yeah, we're 100% equities. But we also have cash, a CD, and own a house we're not upside-down in.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4897 on: August 08, 2019, 03:09:33 PM »

Iím sure some are, but I donít think itís a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesnít mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

Iím definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4898 on: August 08, 2019, 04:32:20 PM »

Iím sure some are, but I donít think itís a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesnít mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

Iím definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

Thanks.  Not bragging because my personal mix is still way below 100% VTSAX and I'm ok with that because I had tolerable volatility (although I do intend to do a rising glide path now that I'm FIRE)

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4899 on: August 08, 2019, 06:03:52 PM »

Iím sure some are, but I donít think itís a majority by any means.  Especially once you factor non-investable assets it becomes almost impossible.

This poll (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/asset-allocation-poll/) showed about 25% all in stocks but that doesnít mean only US stock

PS my personal mix hit an all time high today.

Congrats!

Iím definitely in the minority here. And fine with it.

Thanks.  Not bragging because my personal mix is still way below 100% VTSAX and I'm ok with that because I had tolerable volatility (although I do intend to do a rising glide path now that I'm FIRE)

Cool. What does your glide path Look like and how did you come up with it? If you care to share.