Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 69519 times)

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #100 on: April 28, 2017, 12:36:55 PM »
This thread is great.  "Top is in" spelled backwards is "nisi pot."  Isn't that what you use on your sinuses?

Neti pot! I water my nose everyday with my snot pot.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #101 on: April 28, 2017, 12:40:35 PM »

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #102 on: April 28, 2017, 01:01:21 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
OK, now I know you're a troll.

I think that's going too far. Most people consider a 'troll' to be a complete piece of shit dirtbag (or am I wrong on that?). IMO, it's saved for when you're completely 'done' with someone AND you're very certain you're 100% right. It's not playful banter.

Quote from: sol
How can the top "still" be in?

You're a very reasonable guy. You know you're technically correct. But in real world terms, if the market pretty much topped out here and then crashed... you'd really have to say he called it, wouldn't you?

Isn't it enough to be pretty damn sure he has no idea if the top's in, and he'll be proven wrong beyond any measure soon enough? I mean, even if he did basically 'call it', you could still argue that he didn't know. All you'd have to do is ask him to call the bottom next to prove it.

Honestly, if he got that one pretty close-enough, too... you'd have to start listening.

thorstach,
Have you ever called a top before? Someone else had a good point in that your skill ought to've made you a billionaire by now. Please address why you aren't (or confirm that you are). Maybe this is your first opportunity ever to put your wizardry into practice? Can you show your methods in back-testing? Please give us a market chart with the ups and downs annotated with notes that follow your VIX-based rules.

Gumption

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #103 on: April 28, 2017, 01:02:30 PM »
im following this thread. therapeutic.

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #104 on: April 28, 2017, 01:24:55 PM »
^RUT had a green close that is >5x the red DJ close, indicating an inverse dead cat bounce.
I thought this was hilarious, until I looked it up and realized there is a trading pattern that is actually called that. I can't imagine being in a Wall Street firm and saying that with a straight face to a co-worker.
FIRE, Take Two.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #105 on: April 28, 2017, 01:30:16 PM »
Quote from: tyort1
OK, now I know you're a troll.
I think that's going too far. Most people consider a 'troll' to be a complete piece of shit dirtbag (or am I wrong on that?). IMO, it's saved for when you're completely 'done' with someone AND you're very certain you're 100% right. It's not playful banter.
You're wrong on that. Trolling commonly refers to posting something provocative and usually baseless to spark a back and forth.

Quote from: AZryan
thorstach,
Have you ever called a top before? Someone else had a good point in that your skill ought to've made you a billionaire by now. Please address why you aren't (or confirm that you are).
Seems to have more success in trolling than in market timing.

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #106 on: April 28, 2017, 01:36:41 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Green
... I can't imagine being in a Wall Street firm and saying that with a straight face to a co-worker.

How many workplaces have weirdass jargon? Like... all of them, maybe? And then socially, how many groups make up even more weird shit, seemingly with the intention of trying to keep other people from understanding them? People love to feel they know cool 'insider' shit the rest of us don't know. Now let's talk about who here's going to "FIRE next @ 4% on their 'stache".

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #107 on: April 28, 2017, 01:43:04 PM »
The top of the market is in and has been in since before i started the thread. The top being the march 1st all time high which remains unbroken.

So you're predicting that the market will never break the March 1 close?

Or did you just mean "today is not the all the time high thus far"?  Because that's a much easier claim to make, requiring no knowledge of the future whatsoever, and is true most of the time.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2017, 02:38:32 PM by sol »

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #108 on: April 28, 2017, 01:58:17 PM »
Top is still in and ATH intact according to my charts. VIX ramping back up, XIV unable to break out.

My charts show an inverse head and shoulders coupled with a rising wedge indicating a solid footing for further gains.


(You do realize that XIV is (an ETF that is) the inverse of VIX, right? If VIX goes up, XIV goes down. It's tied to medium length VIX futures. Claiming that VIX is rising and XIV is decreasing is redundant.)

AZryan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #109 on: April 28, 2017, 02:00:19 PM »
Quote from: aspiringnomad
You're wrong on that. Trolling commonly refers to posting something provocative and usually baseless to spark a back and forth.

He didn't say 'trolling', he called the dude a Troll. If I said you were lying about something, that's at least weaker than me just labeling you a Liar -like that's all you do, that's who you are.

Would you call yourself a liar? I'll assume 'no', but have you ever told a lie? Yes. And what do you call someone who told a lie? A liar. So you're a Liar.

See, I hope you're calling that bullshit, but that was a trick this slimy jackass Ray Comfort went around doing to people (sometimes with jackass Kurt Cameron at his side). It's 'cuz the label 'Liar' or 'Troll' really comes across as an absolute, not just referring to a particular incident, and much harsher.

On top of that... I think you still have to be pretty damn sure someone is simply trolling before you throw even that around. Maybe no one ever did it to you, and you can't relate?

He's seems at least very harmless so far. That's not trolling yet, IMO.

Hoosier Daddy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #110 on: April 28, 2017, 02:07:29 PM »
I honestly got a little nervous about this topic for a second when I first saw it. Then I saw the mustachian response and calmed down. To the OP: I think this is why people got so mad - these "scare" tactics can force good people to make really dumb investment decisions.

It took me a second to remember that I am well diversified across all possible financial scenarios and then I chilled the $%&# out lol. Let the market go up, or go down, I don't care lol. I'm ready!
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tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #111 on: April 28, 2017, 02:34:42 PM »
Quote from: aspiringnomad
You're wrong on that. Trolling commonly refers to posting something provocative and usually baseless to spark a back and forth.

He didn't say 'trolling', he called the dude a Troll. If I said you were lying about something, that's at least weaker than me just labeling you a Liar -like that's all you do, that's who you are.

Would you call yourself a liar? I'll assume 'no', but have you ever told a lie? Yes. And what do you call someone who told a lie? A liar. So you're a Liar.

See, I hope you're calling that bullshit, but that was a trick this slimy jackass Ray Comfort went around doing to people (sometimes with jackass Kurt Cameron at his side). It's 'cuz the label 'Liar' or 'Troll' really comes across as an absolute, not just referring to a particular incident, and much harsher.

On top of that... I think you still have to be pretty damn sure someone is simply trolling before you throw even that around. Maybe no one ever did it to you, and you can't relate?

He's seems at least very harmless so far. That's not trolling yet, IMO.

Haha, I'm sure thorstach is an adult and can defend himself just fine.  If he wants to.  Which he hasn't.  I stick by my claim that he created this thread to troll us.  Thus he is a troll.  I can't wait for his next post about a triple top and the inverse downward swing that will signify!  So far, he's called the top!  Called the top again!  and now I'd love to see him call the top a third time!!!  Fun!

Seriously I've been a ridiculously good mood all day (and yesterday), this is all just a bit of light hearted banter.
Frugalite in training.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #112 on: April 28, 2017, 02:37:31 PM »
I honestly got a little nervous about this topic for a second when I first saw it. Then I saw the mustachian response and calmed down. To the OP: I think this is why people got so mad - these "scare" tactics can force good people to make really dumb investment decisions.

It took me a second to remember that I am well diversified across all possible financial scenarios and then I chilled the $%&# out lol. Let the market go up, or go down, I don't care lol. I'm ready!

I used to be the same - I'd come here, see these dire predictions, get a bit panicked and then take a while to calm down after other posters came in (and reality didn't cooperate with the prediction).

My favorite was the "Red Dow" thread a guy called mrpercentage posted about a year ago.  Oh dear god that is worth a read.  Same idea, same mentality, same utter failure to predict anything.

So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"


Hahahaha.
Frugalite in training.

Eric

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #113 on: April 28, 2017, 03:23:27 PM »
So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"

For the lazy:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #114 on: April 28, 2017, 03:30:29 PM »
So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"

For the lazy:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Thanks Eric!  BTW, here is what the past year has looked like since the "Red Dow" prediction:



Seriously, I cannot stop laughing!
Frugalite in training.

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #115 on: April 28, 2017, 06:15:26 PM »
So now, any time one of these threads pop up any more my common response is "Dare I call it?  Here it comes..... RED DOW!!!"

For the lazy:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Thanks Eric!  BTW, here is what the past year has looked like since the "Red Dow" prediction:



Seriously, I cannot stop laughing!

Mr. P is actually up now.  I still track his predictions.  Note that I only put in 1 share off each.  The last move I saw him make was OHI  and it was a substantial amount of his holdings when he purchased it but you would never get the percentage.

Of course VTI is up 14.5% since April 2015 when he made his predictions.

 


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #116 on: April 28, 2017, 08:09:55 PM »
I just developed this advanced nominal price history of the S&P500 in Excel. I think this says something meaningful about the future, if you care about your money. You should definitely take action because of this chart. I wonder which point thorstach is predicting from?


The chart randomly selects a 1 or a 2. =RANDBETWEEN(1,2)
Then it multiplies the previous number by either 1.005 or 0.9953 depending on if a 1 or a 2 came up. =IF(B5=2,C4*1.005,C4*0.9953)
I entertained myself for about 30 minutes by hitting the enter key and then coming up with plausible sounding explanations for why it did what it did. It's even more entertaining if you add dates.

Edit: Struggling with Sheets here. New chart now, image only so hopefully it will stay.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2017, 11:04:19 PM by Radagast »

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #117 on: April 28, 2017, 08:15:24 PM »
I just developed this advanced nominal price history of the S&P500 in Excel. I think this says something meaningful about the future, if you care about your money. You should definitely take action because of this chart. I wonder which point thorstach is predicting from?

A Himalayan peak is obviously forming at the end there. It's about at a K2 level. With an additional pomerian monoplate influencing the RAND function, there are still legs to go in the market.

JoeBlow

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #118 on: April 28, 2017, 08:24:07 PM »
I just developed this advanced nominal price history of the S&P500 in Excel. I think this says something meaningful about the future, if you care about your money. You should definitely take action because of this chart. I wonder which point thorstach is predicting from?


The chart randomly selects a 1 or a 2. =RANDBETWEEN(1,2)
Then it multiplies the previous number by either 1.005 or 0.9953 depending on if a 1 or a 2 came up. =IF(B5=2,C4*1.005,C4*0.9953)
I entertained myself for about 30 minutes by hitting the enter key and then coming up with plausible sounding explanations for why it did what it did. It's even more entertaining if you add dates.

Can you put the dates on there so I can predict when I can RE?

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #119 on: April 28, 2017, 10:55:09 PM »
Can you put the dates on there so I can predict when I can RE?
Of course. Unfortunately the chart I just posted is of the past, so you can't make investment decisions based on it. You have to live through the future. This is the market history you will live through over the next decade:

Wow, good for you. The chart I was going to post first had some tough patches, but I am still working out the best way to post charts from Google sheets. See, this chart shows why you shouldn't invest internationally over the coming decade.

hubcity

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #120 on: April 29, 2017, 06:59:04 AM »
A Himalayan peak is obviously forming at the end there. It's about at a K2 level. With an additional pomerian monoplate influencing the RAND function, there are still legs to go in the market.

Someone read xkcd (https://xkcd.com/1829/) this week.  "Pomerian monoplate" - I'm pretty sure you meant "pomerian microplate".  If you are not careful with your terms you will confuse people.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #121 on: April 29, 2017, 07:17:26 AM »
How many workplaces have weirdass jargon? Like... all of them, maybe? And then socially, how many groups make up even more weird shit, seemingly with the intention of trying to keep other people from understanding them? People love to feel they know cool 'insider' shit the rest of us don't know. Now let's talk about who here's going to "FIRE next @ 4% on their 'stache".

Hahahahahaa.
This made my day.

I work in an industry with equally bizarre jargon.
It's amazing what we get used to until someone points it out.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #122 on: April 29, 2017, 08:58:16 AM »
Posting to keenly gleen insights from thorstashe.

Radegast, thanks for the chart, now I can prove to everyone that it's OK for me to FIRE, since the future looks bright.

MrGreen, I thought the green, red thing was made up.  I was pretty sure that an inverse dead cat bounce was a "real" term, since dead cat bounce is a "real" chartist term.


Edit for typos.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2017, 11:48:07 AM by markbike528CBX »

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #123 on: April 29, 2017, 10:08:50 PM »

MrGreen, I though the green, red thing was made up.  I was pretty sure that an inverse dead cat bounce was a "real" term, since dead cat bounce is a "real" chartist term.

A classic inverse dead cat bounce means the security in discussion will slowly "deflate" over a short period (days to 2 weeks) to its position immediately prior to the "bounce", before it begins to move up again. Think of it as something similar to "filling the gap".

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #124 on: April 29, 2017, 11:18:10 PM »
A Himalayan peak is obviously forming at the end there. It's about at a K2 level. With an additional pomerian monoplate influencing the RAND function, there are still legs to go in the market.

Someone read xkcd (https://xkcd.com/1829/) this week.  "Pomerian monoplate" - I'm pretty sure you meant "pomerian microplate".  If you are not careful with your terms you will confuse people.

Hey, if you can't grok a pomerian monoplate influencing a Himalayan peak run up, you can go back to your index funds!

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #125 on: May 05, 2017, 02:27:06 PM »
Are we there yet?

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #126 on: May 05, 2017, 08:39:24 PM »
Quadruple dead cat bounce?
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JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #127 on: May 06, 2017, 08:26:06 AM »
Quadruple dead cat bounce?

You monsters!  That poor cat has been through enough!

Grande

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #128 on: May 06, 2017, 10:21:01 AM »
Might me a the top. In 17 years when the SP500 is at 4100 how much regret will we all have buying SP500 at 2400 when we could have waited for a pull back and bought at 2200 (or whatever)?

Laserjet3051

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #129 on: May 06, 2017, 11:39:07 AM »
Might me a the top. In 17 years when the SP500 is at 4100 how much regret will we all have buying SP500 at 2400 when we could have waited for a pull back and bought at 2200 (or whatever)?

ROFL!

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #130 on: May 09, 2017, 08:28:24 AM »
We're there! Top is in.

Bouncy dead cat is bouncy.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #131 on: May 09, 2017, 09:05:06 AM »
Oh man, the top is constantly in today, every minute there is a new top being put in :(

This is so hard that we have to keep saying that it's in :(

Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #132 on: May 09, 2017, 10:27:23 AM »
Doh!  May 9th.  ...Top is still in. 
"30 bucks?! What are you, crazy? I don't have that kind of money." - Trailer Park Boys
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tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #133 on: May 09, 2017, 10:40:15 AM »
Wait, with markets up this much, doesn't this mean that the returns are 'too high' and we're in for a correction?  Well?  Oh wait, this thread is 2 years old!!  WFT that is funny sh!t.
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Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #134 on: May 09, 2017, 10:41:53 AM »
One day there will be a correction/crash and somebody somewhere will have "predicted" it and they'll still be wrong even if they don't know it.

Retire-Canada

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thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #136 on: May 09, 2017, 04:48:30 PM »
Top is still in as the S&P has not closed above the March 1 top.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #137 on: May 09, 2017, 05:22:17 PM »
Top is still in as the S&P has not closed above the March 1 top.

It did today.

1 Mar 2017 close = 2395.96 & high = 2400.98
9 May 2017 close = 2396.92 & high = 2403.87

and VIX is under 10.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 05:30:54 PM by Retire-Canada »

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #138 on: May 09, 2017, 06:08:36 PM »
Top is still in as the S&P has not closed above the March 1 top.

And if the top was in, so what?
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solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #139 on: May 09, 2017, 06:10:41 PM »
If the top was in, it would be time to invest. You definitely want to be buying when things are going on sale.

I kind of hope the top is in.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #140 on: May 09, 2017, 06:16:46 PM »
If the top was in, it would be time to invest. You definitely want to be buying when things are going on sale.

I kind of hope the top is in.

I'm already investing the max amount of $$ I can on a monthly basis.  Which I will keep doing even after things slide downward.  If I had extra $$, I wouldn't wait for a 'top'.  I'd just dump it in now. 
Frugalite in training.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #141 on: May 09, 2017, 10:50:12 PM »
If the top was in, it would be time to invest. You definitely want to be buying when things are going on sale.

I kind of hope the top is in.

I'm already investing the max amount of $$ I can on a monthly basis.  Which I will keep doing even after things slide downward.  If I had extra $$, I wouldn't wait for a 'top'.  I'd just dump it in now.

I happen to think that there is a good chance that the top is in, however there is also a good chance that I am wrong. So, I moved my long term (401k) investment money from 100% stocks to 90% stocks 10% cash. I also moved my short and medium term money (house down payment) to 100% cash. I guess I'm trying to play the market... but I don't feel bad about that asset allocation.

EDIT - but I continue to max out my 401(k) each month.

Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #142 on: May 10, 2017, 06:10:32 AM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #143 on: May 10, 2017, 07:32:03 AM »
Be afraid. Very afraid...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/investing/vix-1993-wall-street-fear-gauge/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

So that may mean,

Bottom is in on the VIX.

If that's true, we might have an octuple reverse dead cat bounce shit storm.  Or something.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #144 on: May 10, 2017, 07:53:19 AM »


This is the new Red Dow! ;)

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #145 on: May 10, 2017, 10:58:08 AM »
Be afraid. Very afraid...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/09/investing/vix-1993-wall-street-fear-gauge/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

VIX high? Panic!

VIX stable? Panic, it's got to move sometime!

VIX low? Panic, things are too good!

sirdoug007

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #146 on: May 10, 2017, 11:11:43 AM »
Might me a the top. In 17 years when the SP500 is at 4100 how much regret will we all have buying SP500 at 2400 when we could have waited for a pull back and bought at 2200 (or whatever)?

^This * Infinity!

It's interesting to add a S&P500 prediction to your FIRE spreadsheet projections.  At 7%/year the S&P500 would grow from todays ~2400 to around 4700 in 2027 (10 years).  Let that sink in.  +2300 in 10 years.  And stop worrying about 50 pt moves!

Just keep buying!  https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying-7d31402231c9

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #147 on: May 10, 2017, 11:25:32 AM »

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #148 on: May 10, 2017, 12:35:46 PM »
FIRE, Take Two.

smedleyb

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #149 on: May 10, 2017, 02:54:37 PM »
The top in disappearing dick picks is in.

Aw, SNAP!