Top is in

[Exflyboy]

Well CLEARLY that was the top.. again!

[sol]

The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

[DS]

My barber told me the top was in yesterday so I immediately sold everything and bought gold bricks. Spending today burying them at various locations (geo-arbitrage). Glad I got that tip and was able to see the highest the market would ever go.

[Tyson]

My barber told me the top was in yesterday so I immediately sold everything and bought gold bricks. Spending today burying them at various locations (geo-arbitrage). Glad I got that tip and was able to see the highest the market would ever go.

Clearly your barber has a keen grasp on market and economic fundamentals as represented by things like CAPE.  Good call! 

Personally I consult the incredibly sage advice of the Random Financial Advice Generator - https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

Today's advice is:

In sequential-pay markets, plan to cover lump-sum conduits.

and

The smart investor this season will be sure not to leverage credit-linked liability structures.

[anisotropy]

The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

hi, who were these five?

[intellectsucks]

Haven’t contributed to this thread yet, but every $100k of your stache has grown by about $8000 since this thread started.  Hope no one listened to any of the doomsayers and pulled money out.

[With This Herring]

I would like to sincerely thank Thorstache.  This thread finally gave me the push I needed in August to invest the last of my funds (maybe 1/4 or so of my stache) that had been sitting in cash as I scolded others for market timing.  _{No, none of these cash funds were from a selling stocks, just savings that hadn't yet been invested.}

[nereo]

wait, i wasn't paying attention - is the top now?  NOW?  .... how about now?

[Exflyboy]

Naah.. it was yesterday

[TomTX]

The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

Well, I'll be fine with it. My transfer to a new brokerage went through, so I'll get the signup bonus unless the market drops >25% in the next few months.

Even then, it would just be an annoyance. 

[MrGreen]

We're clearly topless.

[Optimiser]

We're clearly topless.

Nope it just came in. Top is currently in.

[MrGreen]

We're clearly topless.

Nope it just came in. Top is currently in.

They just keep coming though, like infinite tops. Or topless perhaps, as a synonym. Lol

[Cycling Stache]

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

[itchyfeet]

I want to gate crash that party

[Tyson]

Bottom!

[Kaspian]

HELP ME, I'M ON TOP AND DUNNO HOW TO STOP! 
(I hope this thread never dies.)

[Exflyboy]

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

[aboatguy]

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

However, the market may drop 50% soon...... leaving only a 252% increase.

[Exflyboy]

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

However, the market may drop 50% soon...... leaving only a 252% increase.

Gosh your right it may.. But.. if you have been buying all along (I actually started investing in 97) then some of that stock was bought in the depths of the great recession. So buying all along has added up to way more than the 504%

I'm at least 2* FI so I might sell everything...;)

[theolympians]

"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

I am a little behind. How would a trade re-negotiation send havoc throughout the world. I see these doomsday headlines all the time. Trade deals are not set in stone, nor are they commandments from on high.

[theolympians]

As to the "administration ruining the economy" I don't see the evidence for that. OTOH, I am worried about the republicans dragging their feet on tax reform; and its effect on long term growth, or at least perceived growth. They can't seem to get anything together, and are more intent on shooting each other in the back.....I won't go on.

The top may be in!!!!!! LOL!

[DarkandStormy]

As to the "administration ruining the economy" I don't see the evidence for that. OTOH, I am worried about the republicans dragging their feet on tax reform; and its effect on long term growth, or at least perceived growth. They can't seem to get anything together, and are more intent on shooting each other in the back.....I won't go on.

The top may be in!!!!!! LOL!

Not to get political but #45 tweeted today bragging about tanking healthcare stocks like it was a good thing...

[DavidAnnArbor]

"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

I am a little behind. How would a trade re-negotiation send havoc throughout the world. I see these doomsday headlines all the time. Trade deals are not set in stone, nor are they commandments from on high.

I have 2 words for you.   Supply Chain

[Elderwood17]

This is among my favorite threads!  It reinforces how little I understand about market tops, market lows, overdue corrections and all the other things my most verbal relatives keep blathering about. 

For some odd reason the market just doesn't care what my Uncle Joe thinks......

[Clean Shaven]

For some odd reason the market just doesn't care what my Uncle Joe thinks......

Uncle Joe, in his time, could very well have influenced the market.

[OurTown]

Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .

[Radagast]

Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .

You mean quit Stalin'?

[Cycling Stache]

Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .

You mean quit Stalin'?

You don't quit Stalin.  Stalin quits you.

[Inaya]

Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

[Kalergie]

Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Tell her to buy Bitcoin! It’s so hot right now!

[solon]

Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

This might be the best evidence yet.

[frugledoc]

Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

[Radagast]

I called the top today. And by called the top, I mean harvested long term capital gains on all my 2016 taxable purchases of US stocks.

[dougules]

Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

My mother-in-law can be an occasional PITA, but if yours can crash the stock market, that's impressive.

[Tyson]

Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

My mother-in-law can be an occasional PITA, but if yours can crash the stock market, that's impressive.

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

[nereo]

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

Problem is, that period can last for months or even years.  Or to reference Keynes (supposedly): The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

[Tyson]

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

Problem is, that period can last for months or even years.  Or to reference Keynes (supposedly): The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Oh sure.  I wasn't saying I agreed with it, just that it was referencing a discussion up-thread.

[itchyfeet]

I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.

Well, maybe there is a box of matches very close at hand, but none have sparked yet.

The hopes (and pricing) are big on global growth. Let’s hope.

I saw on tv yesterday some commentators were talking about “rolling corrections”, with individual stocks, or even sectors, realizing corrections but not the whole market at the same time. The resultant rise in the Market we are seeing is therefore already post corrections and we will indeed be topless for the near future.

The analysts were extremely bullish. As it is the same Analysts that were bearish 12 months ago, I think there is a warning here. Probably not a great time to buy into the hype. There is hype.

..... but as I have no willingness to sit on cash, I’ll just have to stick to the game plan and ride this out. Maybe the hype will have been warranted.

[mjr]

This is the fun part of the ride, Itchyfeet.  Enjoy it.

[OurTown]

I have no doubt there will be a substantial correction in the future.  I just don't know when.

[StarBright]

I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.

I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).

[afuera]

We have put a pause on our investing because we a rebuilding our entire house after it flooded so we are staying pretty cash heavy for the short-term.  The insurance check should cover all the contractor bills but we are keeping a cash cushion just in case. I feel like a crazy market timer having this much cash sitting around.  I just want to throw it all in the market but we might actually need this cash for you know, spending.   I'm actually hoping for a dip soon because once this whole mess is finished in a few months, we should have a pretty big stockpile of cash to invest and it would be nice if there was a sale.

[DarkandStormy]

I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.

Another indicator...two friends who have never talked money/investments, mentioned to me at a dinner this weekend about how excited they are about X stock and one met with a financial adviser.  Uh oh.

I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).

[Cycling Stache]

I'm actually hoping for a dip soon because once this whole mess is finished in a few months, we should have a pretty big stockpile of cash to invest and it would be nice if there was a sale.

I have every dollar of mine in the market, and I too am hoping for a dip so that my next paycheck will buy stock at a cheaper price.

In other words, every single one of us in the accumulation phase should be cheering for a dip, regardless how much we have in the market currently.

[BTDretire]

Dow 23,000 the top is, well, by now you know the rest of the story!

[dougules]

I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment. 

[Tyson]

I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

If you take a short term view, dips are awful to live through.  If you take the long term view, they are just blips even if it takes a few years to recover from them. 

[Cycling Stache]

I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

[Cache_Stash]

I think the market hit irrational exuberance 2 or 3 years ago, and it has just kept on going.   Anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997, but you'd still have been better off to have kept doing what you were doing.  You could possibly just maybe have made a case for switching to bonds at the very top in 1999 or 2000, but bonds are ridiculously low at the moment.

This is a fascinating post because even in trying to identify the problem of predicting market movements, it incorporates the error of backward-looking bias (i.e., incorporating what you know today into what you would have known then).

Your statement is that anybody could tell you that the market was way too high in 1996 or 1997.

You think that because it seemed like it was high-flying back then then crashed spectacularly in 2001-2002.

Do you know what the S&P 500 was in January 1996?  It was 600.  Seriously.

It was never that low again in history.  And that's not counting dividends. 

It seems like it was high flying only because you know now that a significant crash was coming.  But there were still several years of build up before that crash.

This is the key point here.  Right now the market is up 40% from February 2016--less than 2 years ago.  I bet most people would say now that a 30-35% crash would bring stocks back to a very good price.  But that just takes you back to February 2016.  How many people do you think on this forum were saying in February 2016 that the market was a great deal, phenomenal prices, etc.?  Zero.

We only see trends in retrospect.  But we believe we're good at it, which is why there are so many threads "calling the top," etc.  Someone will get it right just based on pure statistics (if there are enough bets, one is bound to be right).  But that doesn't make that person good at predicting the market.  With very, very few exceptions in history, it just makes them the lottery winner that happened to get the call right on that particular occasion.

Come on now.  Did you have to go and get all rational on us?  Such a buzz kill.  :)