Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 130688 times)

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #950 on: October 10, 2017, 09:20:04 PM »
Glad to see someone else sharing the belief that econ and market move together.

I was mostly referring to the great US&A in April, aka the source of all that's greattm and wonderful peopletm, the best reallytm. And frankly, it is the only one that matters as far as broad market timing is concerned.

Sing with me: "America! America! lalalalala!"

Yes, globally (outside of USA) growth had been gaining, personally I feel it could last a few more quarters but I don't know without seeing the data. It makes great sense that the global growth would be accelerating after the usa growth rate had slowed. After all, it's like dropping a pebble in a pond, causing a wave propagation. Capitals chase profits, starting with lower risk assets and move further and further towards the higher risk end, that's how the cycles work. With the "peak growth" occurred in late 2014 in the States, I am guessing we are somewhere later in the cycle than many people think. Note, I am not calling the top yet.

What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #951 on: October 11, 2017, 06:50:35 AM »
DOW doesn't count..:)

Still an end-of-session high for the S&P 500 I believe.  Doesn't really matter though haha.
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #952 on: October 11, 2017, 01:59:30 PM »
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #953 on: October 11, 2017, 01:59:44 PM »
New tops.
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OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #954 on: October 11, 2017, 02:49:24 PM »
"Top is in."  Oh, I am sorry, sir, I didn't mean to overstep my bounds.  You say that.

What?

"Top is in."

It is?

No, you say that, Governor.

What?

"Top is in."

It is?

Here sir, play with this.

Oh thank you Hedey.

No it's HEDLEY!

It is?

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #955 on: October 11, 2017, 02:53:13 PM »



Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #956 on: October 11, 2017, 07:05:01 PM »
Well CLEARLY that was the top.. again!

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #957 on: October 11, 2017, 07:23:54 PM »
The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #958 on: October 12, 2017, 09:35:11 AM »
My barber told me the top was in yesterday so I immediately sold everything and bought gold bricks. Spending today burying them at various locations (geo-arbitrage). Glad I got that tip and was able to see the highest the market would ever go.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #959 on: October 12, 2017, 10:18:09 AM »
My barber told me the top was in yesterday so I immediately sold everything and bought gold bricks. Spending today burying them at various locations (geo-arbitrage). Glad I got that tip and was able to see the highest the market would ever go.

Clearly your barber has a keen grasp on market and economic fundamentals as represented by things like CAPE.  Good call! 

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Today's advice is:

In sequential-pay markets, plan to cover lump-sum conduits.

and

The smart investor this season will be sure not to leverage credit-linked liability structures.
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anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #960 on: October 12, 2017, 11:52:14 AM »
The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

hi, who were these five?

intellectsucks

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #961 on: October 12, 2017, 12:33:23 PM »
Haven’t contributed to this thread yet, but every $100k of your stache has grown by about $8000 since this thread started.  Hope no one listened to any of the doomsayers and pulled money out.

With This Herring

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #962 on: October 12, 2017, 03:40:14 PM »
I would like to sincerely thank Thorstache.  This thread finally gave me the push I needed in August to invest the last of my funds (maybe 1/4 or so of my stache) that had been sitting in cash as I scolded others for market timing.  No, none of these cash funds were from a selling stocks, just savings that hadn't yet been invested.
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Re: Top is in
« Reply #963 on: October 12, 2017, 03:42:04 PM »
wait, i wasn't paying attention - is the top now?  NOW?  .... how about now?
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Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #964 on: October 12, 2017, 04:04:45 PM »
Naah.. it was yesterday

TomTX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #965 on: October 13, 2017, 05:22:08 AM »
The top is coming.  Temporarily, that is.  Surely we'll have at least a full down week at some point, within a year of five different people claiming doom and gloom and immediate market drops, it just hasn't happened yet.

But someday.  Someday, my top will come.

Well, I'll be fine with it. My transfer to a new brokerage went through, so I'll get the signup bonus unless the market drops >25% in the next few months.

Even then, it would just be an annoyance. 
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Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #966 on: October 13, 2017, 06:55:33 AM »
We're clearly topless.
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Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #967 on: October 13, 2017, 08:34:10 AM »
We're clearly topless.

Nope it just came in. Top is currently in.

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #968 on: October 13, 2017, 11:42:50 AM »
We're clearly topless.

Nope it just came in. Top is currently in.
They just keep coming though, like infinite tops. Or topless perhaps, as a synonym. Lol
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Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #969 on: October 13, 2017, 12:59:53 PM »
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #970 on: October 13, 2017, 01:02:47 PM »
I want to gate crash that party

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #971 on: October 13, 2017, 01:45:13 PM »
Bottom!
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Kaspian

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #972 on: October 13, 2017, 02:41:20 PM »
HELP ME, I'M ON TOP AND DUNNO HOW TO STOP! 
(I hope this thread never dies.)

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Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #973 on: October 13, 2017, 02:45:28 PM »
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #974 on: October 14, 2017, 10:26:51 AM »
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

However, the market may drop 50% soon...... leaving only a 252% increase.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #975 on: October 14, 2017, 11:15:31 AM »
What irrational exuberance?  Party on, just like 1996. :)

Hopefully!!

On January 1, 1996, the S&P 500 was 614.

Today it's 2,555. 

That's a 316% increase . . . not counting dividends!

and 504% with dividends (up till the end of Sept)

However, the market may drop 50% soon...... leaving only a 252% increase.

Gosh your right it may.. But.. if you have been buying all along (I actually started investing in 97) then some of that stock was bought in the depths of the great recession. So buying all along has added up to way more than the 504%

I'm at least 2* FI so I might sell everything...;)

theolympians

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #976 on: October 14, 2017, 11:23:13 AM »
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

I am a little behind. How would a trade re-negotiation send havoc throughout the world. I see these doomsday headlines all the time. Trade deals are not set in stone, nor are they commandments from on high.

theolympians

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #977 on: October 14, 2017, 11:33:01 AM »
As to the "administration ruining the economy" I don't see the evidence for that. OTOH, I am worried about the republicans dragging their feet on tax reform; and its effect on long term growth, or at least perceived growth. They can't seem to get anything together, and are more intent on shooting each other in the back.....I won't go on.

The top may be in!!!!!! LOL!

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #978 on: October 14, 2017, 01:52:58 PM »
As to the "administration ruining the economy" I don't see the evidence for that. OTOH, I am worried about the republicans dragging their feet on tax reform; and its effect on long term growth, or at least perceived growth. They can't seem to get anything together, and are more intent on shooting each other in the back.....I won't go on.

The top may be in!!!!!! LOL!

Not to get political but #45 tweeted today bragging about tanking healthcare stocks like it was a good thing...
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #979 on: October 16, 2017, 05:14:19 AM »
"The collapse of the 1994 NAFTA trade deal would send shock waves throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States. "
Yet another way in which this administration may sabotage the economy.

I am a little behind. How would a trade re-negotiation send havoc throughout the world. I see these doomsday headlines all the time. Trade deals are not set in stone, nor are they commandments from on high.

I have 2 words for you.   Supply Chain

Elderwood17

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #980 on: October 16, 2017, 10:59:43 AM »
This is among my favorite threads!  It reinforces how little I understand about market tops, market lows, overdue corrections and all the other things my most verbal relatives keep blathering about. 

For some odd reason the market just doesn't care what my Uncle Joe thinks......

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #981 on: October 16, 2017, 12:45:22 PM »
For some odd reason the market just doesn't care what my Uncle Joe thinks......

Uncle Joe, in his time, could very well have influenced the market.


OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #982 on: October 16, 2017, 01:02:06 PM »
Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #983 on: October 16, 2017, 01:30:58 PM »
Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .
You mean quit Stalin'?

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #984 on: October 16, 2017, 01:53:24 PM »
Quit stallin' and get to the point . . .
You mean quit Stalin'?

You don't quit Stalin.  Stalin quits you.

Inaya

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #985 on: October 16, 2017, 01:56:16 PM »
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.
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Kalergie

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #986 on: October 16, 2017, 02:01:21 PM »
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.
Tell her to buy Bitcoin! It’s so hot right now!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #987 on: October 16, 2017, 02:01:51 PM »
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

This might be the best evidence yet.

frugledoc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #988 on: October 16, 2017, 02:04:47 PM »
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #989 on: October 16, 2017, 02:05:45 PM »
I called the top today. And by called the top, I mean harvested long term capital gains on all my 2016 taxable purchases of US stocks.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #990 on: October 16, 2017, 03:57:52 PM »
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

My mother-in-law can be an occasional PITA, but if yours can crash the stock market, that's impressive.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #991 on: October 16, 2017, 05:06:01 PM »
Yesterday my mother-in-law, who has never given as much as a single thought about the stock market in her life, was asking about how to get into the stock market. Top is in.

Definitely an ominous sign.    If my mum asked me about investing in shares I would be very scared.

My mother-in-law can be an occasional PITA, but if yours can crash the stock market, that's impressive.

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.
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nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #992 on: October 16, 2017, 05:24:58 PM »

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

Problem is, that period can last for months or even years.  Or to reference Keynes (supposedly): The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #993 on: October 16, 2017, 07:39:05 PM »

There was a discussion upthread about how to know when you might know that irrational exuberance has set in, and someone pointed out that when people like your in laws or the janitors at your building or your pool guy start giving stock tips (or asking for them), its usually a sign.

Problem is, that period can last for months or even years.  Or to reference Keynes (supposedly): The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Oh sure.  I wasn't saying I agreed with it, just that it was referencing a discussion up-thread.
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itchyfeet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #994 on: October 16, 2017, 10:35:08 PM »
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.

Well, maybe there is a box of matches very close at hand, but none have sparked yet.

The hopes (and pricing) are big on global growth. Let’s hope.

I saw on tv yesterday some commentators were talking about “rolling corrections”, with individual stocks, or even sectors, realizing corrections but not the whole market at the same time. The resultant rise in the Market we are seeing is therefore already post corrections and we will indeed be topless for the near future.

The analysts were extremely bullish. As it is the same Analysts that were bearish 12 months ago, I think there is a warning here. Probably not a great time to buy into the hype. There is hype.

..... but as I have no willingness to sit on cash, I’ll just have to stick to the game plan and ride this out. Maybe the hype will have been warranted.

mjr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #995 on: October 16, 2017, 11:26:34 PM »
This is the fun part of the ride, Itchyfeet.  Enjoy it.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #996 on: October 17, 2017, 07:52:32 AM »
I have no doubt there will be a substantial correction in the future.  I just don't know when.

StarBright

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #997 on: October 17, 2017, 07:58:16 AM »
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.


I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).

afuera

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #998 on: October 17, 2017, 08:19:24 AM »
We have put a pause on our investing because we a rebuilding our entire house after it flooded so we are staying pretty cash heavy for the short-term.  The insurance check should cover all the contractor bills but we are keeping a cash cushion just in case. I feel like a crazy market timer having this much cash sitting around.  I just want to throw it all in the market but we might actually need this cash for you know, spending.   I'm actually hoping for a dip soon because once this whole mess is finished in a few months, we should have a pretty big stockpile of cash to invest and it would be nice if there was a sale.
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #999 on: October 17, 2017, 08:25:08 AM »
I can smell the irrational exuberance from here, and I am on the other side
Of the world to NYSE.

The fuel is on the fire, but so far no match to be seen.


Another indicator...two friends who have never talked money/investments, mentioned to me at a dinner this weekend about how excited they are about X stock and one met with a financial adviser.  Uh oh.

I have a coworker who has basically had his 401k in cash since the crash. He told me yesterday that he threw it all back in the markets last week. I mentioned to my husband that this is my number 1 indicator that we are ready to crash again :)

When the correction comes our plan is just to throw some extra towards buying index funds - just like we did last time (well I wasn't as in to indexing a decade ago (were any of us?) but y'all catch my drift).
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