Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 477187 times)

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2500 on: March 08, 2018, 11:11:31 AM »
I love how sports commentators put it.

"If the Raiders can move the ball downfield and put some points on the board, they have a chance of winning this thing!"

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2501 on: March 08, 2018, 11:20:40 AM »

"Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan's co-president, said during an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday that he believes market gains should continue for the next year or two."


"He said it's normal for there to be a correction at the end of an investing cycle, and that markets could be heading for a "deep correction" of between 20% and 40%, depending upon the market values at the time the downturn starts."

I may be mistaken, but isn't a correction about 10%, and 20-40% is essentially a crash?

In fact, looking it up real quick, a 20-40% drop would be catastrophic. That's Black Monday and Great Recession territory. "Deep correction" my ass.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2502 on: March 08, 2018, 11:26:44 AM »

"Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan's co-president, said during an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday that he believes market gains should continue for the next year or two."


"He said it's normal for there to be a correction at the end of an investing cycle, and that markets could be heading for a "deep correction" of between 20% and 40%, depending upon the market values at the time the downturn starts."

I may be mistaken, but isn't a correction about 10%, and 20-40% is essentially a crash?

In fact, looking it up real quick, a 20-40% drop would be catastrophic. That's Black Monday and Great Recession territory. "Deep correction" my ass.

LOL, no one is saying it has to happen in a day.

We had a ~20% pullback in 2016, that most people don't even remember. Do you remember a catastrophic Black Monday panic? 

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2503 on: March 08, 2018, 11:29:54 AM »

"Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan's co-president, said during an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday that he believes market gains should continue for the next year or two."


"He said it's normal for there to be a correction at the end of an investing cycle, and that markets could be heading for a "deep correction" of between 20% and 40%, depending upon the market values at the time the downturn starts."

I may be mistaken, but isn't a correction about 10%, and 20-40% is essentially a crash?

In fact, looking it up real quick, a 20-40% drop would be catastrophic. That's Black Monday and Great Recession territory. "Deep correction" my ass.

catastrophic?
If it goes up 40% then drops 20% its only "catastrophic" to those that are pulling out of the market now.

Who benefits from this kind of talk? maybe people who make money off people trading? Like J P Morgan. ho hum.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2504 on: March 08, 2018, 11:46:11 AM »
It's possible...

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2505 on: March 08, 2018, 11:46:43 AM »


And in today's weather, summer is shaping to to be warmer than winter, but there could be a cooling trend in the fall.

...later this evening we will see increasing darkness which should continue until early tomorrow morning.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2506 on: March 08, 2018, 12:03:12 PM »


And in today's weather, summer is shaping to to be warmer than winter, but there could be a cooling trend in the fall.

...later this evening we will see increasing darkness which should continue until early tomorrow morning.

Clearly, the top is in for daylight.  Confirmed downtrend started at noon on wall street today.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2507 on: March 08, 2018, 12:19:27 PM »

I think it's pretty clear the market won't make it over this latest hurdle.



somehow the white cat reminds me of Munger?

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2508 on: March 08, 2018, 01:07:29 PM »

I think it's pretty clear the market won't make it over this latest hurdle.



somehow the white cat reminds me of Munger?

Munger would be a great name for that cat!

TempusFugit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2509 on: March 08, 2018, 04:34:19 PM »

"Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan's co-president, said during an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday that he believes market gains should continue for the next year or two."


"He said it's normal for there to be a correction at the end of an investing cycle, and that markets could be heading for a "deep correction" of between 20% and 40%, depending upon the market values at the time the downturn starts."


I may be mistaken, but isn't a correction about 10%, and 20-40% is essentially a crash?

In fact, looking it up real quick, a 20-40% drop would be catastrophic. That's Black Monday and Great Recession territory. "Deep correction" my ass.

LOL, no one is saying it has to happen in a day.

We had a ~20% pullback in 2016, that most people don't even remember. Do you remember a catastrophic Black Monday panic?


It was more like 11% in 2016.  I don't think we've had a 20% down (definition of a bear market, not a 'deep correction') since the Great Recession.  In 2011 we had a ~14% drop.  Nevertheless, this prediction is meaningless since it really only says that they market might go up or it might go down.  And the timing is really fuzzy. 

"Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2510 on: March 08, 2018, 05:50:44 PM »
"Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra
There are only two types of forecasts: lucky and lousy.

You will only ever know which was which in hindsight.  Neither one is worth betting on.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2511 on: March 09, 2018, 07:16:49 AM »
We had a ~20% pullback in 2016, that most people don't even remember. Do you remember a catastrophic Black Monday panic?

It was more like 10-11%, but yes I remember...I managed to dump my IRA contributions at the bottom! (Not by design, just when I had funds available).

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buckle-up-folks/

^A 2016 version of "Top is in."

TheAnonOne

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2512 on: March 09, 2018, 08:26:14 AM »
We had a ~20% pullback in 2016, that most people don't even remember. Do you remember a catastrophic Black Monday panic?

It was more like 10-11%, but yes I remember...I managed to dump my IRA contributions at the bottom! (Not by design, just when I had funds available).

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buckle-up-folks/

^A 2016 version of "Top is in."

I love the bottom of the first page, someone is getting out and shorting the SP500 at around 2,000

OUCH!

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2513 on: March 09, 2018, 08:32:17 AM »
We had a ~20% pullback in 2016, that most people don't even remember. Do you remember a catastrophic Black Monday panic?

It was more like 10-11%, but yes I remember...I managed to dump my IRA contributions at the bottom! (Not by design, just when I had funds available).

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buckle-up-folks/

^A 2016 version of "Top is in."

I love the bottom of the first page, someone is getting out and shorting the SP500 at around 2,000

OUCH!
Hope they didn't actually do that - if they actually shorted at 2040, which hit just about 1 month after that post, they'd have had to get out within 2-3 months just to more or less break even.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2514 on: March 09, 2018, 08:40:08 AM »
Hope they didn't actually do that - if they actually shorted at 2040, which hit just about 1 month after that post, they'd have had to get out within 2-3 months just to more or less break even.

I never bet against the market, even when I think it's tanking. 

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2515 on: March 09, 2018, 09:00:40 AM »
Quote
Reply #30 on: February 13, 2016, 07:20:26 AM »
Quote
I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.

Did he/she call the bottom correctly??

Quote
I get MPT and all that, but the bull market is over, and 'paper losses' are real folks. Yes I might miss gains before I get back into some VTI etc.. but it feels good to remember you can choose NOT to be in the market.

The bull market was over on Feb 18, 2016, folks.  Pack it up.

Quote
Because adding "new" money to the broad stock market at todays valuation offers less than 1% annual return over the next decade along with a double-digit potential drawdown. This is essentially risking dollars to make pennies. There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

There were/are better opportunities than the 44% ROI over the last 2 years.  Duh!

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/why-i-am-reducing-mkt-exposurehave-been-since-2015/

Quote
Why I am reducing mkt exposure+have been since 2015.
« on: February 06, 2016, 06:55:31 AM »

This guy called the top.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2516 on: March 09, 2018, 09:59:11 AM »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2517 on: March 09, 2018, 10:32:02 AM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Bah, only 7 pages, and a lot of that is actual information.  I didn't see any bacon. 

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2518 on: March 09, 2018, 11:07:55 AM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Bah, only 7 pages, and a lot of that is actual information.  I didn't see any bacon.

I'm just sad mrpercentage hasn't been on this board since September 2016, I'd love to get some updates on how his stock picks have been working out for him. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2519 on: March 09, 2018, 11:10:18 AM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

Bah, only 7 pages, and a lot of that is actual information.  I didn't see any bacon.

The world just wasn't ready for that yet

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2520 on: March 09, 2018, 12:22:50 PM »
Yes, bring MR% back pl0x!  Entertaining little bugger.

dreadmoose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2521 on: March 09, 2018, 12:33:32 PM »
I'm just sad mrpercentage hasn't been on this board since September 2016, I'd love to get some updates on how his stock picks have been working out for him.

Unfortunately he had to sell his computer to cover some calls on his stock picks so we won't hear from him again.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2522 on: March 09, 2018, 02:30:07 PM »
*Milton from Office Space voice*

Excuse me, I was told the top was in....

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2523 on: March 09, 2018, 02:40:48 PM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

At the time I was bummed that thread was shut down because we were “piling on” but clearly there is some use to letting this sort of thing run.  There was some real bull-cockery going on with Mr. P and his stock picks that just begged for it.  That school yard scrum got broken up and is reconvening here.   The point has not been to grind good old thor into the ground as much as it serves to remind all readers of the silliness of calling the market. 

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2524 on: March 09, 2018, 03:52:18 PM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

At the time I was bummed that thread was shut down because we were “piling on” but clearly there is some use to letting this sort of thing run.  There was some real bull-cockery going on with Mr. P and his stock picks that just begged for it.  That school yard scrum got broken up and is reconvening here.   The point has not been to grind good old thor into the ground as much as it serves to remind all readers of the silliness of calling the market.

From what I read I don't think this thread is quite as mean-spirited as that one.   

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2525 on: March 09, 2018, 04:01:48 PM »
From what I read I don't think this thread is quite as mean-spirited as that one.

That may be because thorstach doesn't appear to be a serious poster actually engaging in financially destructive short trades.  I think he/she is a comedy sock puppet account for another forum member.

Mrpercentage also said the market was crashing, but he was independently a participant in the rest of the forum, he openly discussed the faulty reasoning behind his beliefs, and he offered specific trades he was making.  Thorstach doesn't seem to exist, except to show up on the worst day of the month and say "the top is in."

I would viciously tear into thorstach too, except it's all apparently in good fun. Because the top is in.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2526 on: March 09, 2018, 04:18:31 PM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

At the time I was bummed that thread was shut down because we were “piling on” but clearly there is some use to letting this sort of thing run.  There was some real bull-cockery going on with Mr. P and his stock picks that just begged for it.  That school yard scrum got broken up and is reconvening here.   The point has not been to grind good old thor into the ground as much as it serves to remind all readers of the silliness of calling the market.

From what I read I don't think this thread is quite as mean-spirited as that one.

I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2527 on: March 09, 2018, 04:47:53 PM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

At the time I was bummed that thread was shut down because we were “piling on” but clearly there is some use to letting this sort of thing run.  There was some real bull-cockery going on with Mr. P and his stock picks that just begged for it.  That school yard scrum got broken up and is reconvening here.   The point has not been to grind good old thor into the ground as much as it serves to remind all readers of the silliness of calling the market.

From what I read I don't think this thread is quite as mean-spirited as that one.

I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

You don't stare at the sun

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2528 on: March 09, 2018, 05:00:47 PM »
You don't stare at the sun

If you stare long into the abyss at sun, the abyss sun also stare at you.

we become what we love and hate.


MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2529 on: March 10, 2018, 09:24:36 AM »
I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

Who called a top on Mar 2nd and a bottom on Mar 6th?
I just scrolled back through the thread and couldn't find anything like that.

EDITED TO ADD:
Also, it looks like the market went up between Mar 2 and Mar 6, so if anyone did in fact call a top and then bottom they would have been wrong.  I assume I completely misunderstood what you meant.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2018, 09:29:26 AM by MrDelane »

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2530 on: March 10, 2018, 09:38:20 AM »
Why are people acknowledging that there could even possibly be a top?


Anyway, top is in.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2531 on: March 10, 2018, 10:58:30 AM »
I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

Who called a top on Mar 2nd and a bottom on Mar 6th?
I just scrolled back through the thread and couldn't find anything like that.

EDITED TO ADD:
Also, it looks like the market went up between Mar 2 and Mar 6, so if anyone did in fact call a top and then bottom they would have been wrong.  I assume I completely misunderstood what you meant.


Hi Mr.D
I am afraid of further jinxing, but hopefully all will be revealed, in time :)
fingers crossed.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2532 on: March 10, 2018, 02:20:44 PM »
No top for you, come back in one month.

MrMoneyMullet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2533 on: March 10, 2018, 05:15:26 PM »


Top is in.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2534 on: March 12, 2018, 06:47:32 AM »
From what I read I don't think this thread is quite as mean-spirited as that one.

That may be because thorstach doesn't appear to be a serious poster actually engaging in financially destructive short trades.  I think he/she is a comedy sock puppet account for another forum member.

Mrpercentage also said the market was crashing, but he was independently a participant in the rest of the forum, he openly discussed the faulty reasoning behind his beliefs, and he offered specific trades he was making.  Thorstach doesn't seem to exist, except to show up on the worst day of the month and say "the top is in."

I would viciously tear into thorstach too, except it's all apparently in good fun. Because the top is in.
Mrpercentage was odd, because he was very open about his risky behavior, but would occasionally mention that he was mostly in index funds.  It stood starkly in contrast with his constant advice to buy whatever stocks had done super well over the previous five to ten years.  He also couldn't get his head around the sunk cost fallacy.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2535 on: March 12, 2018, 10:02:39 AM »
It was more like 10-11%, but yes I remember...I managed to dump my IRA contributions at the bottom! (Not by design, just when I had funds available).

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buckle-up-folks/

^A 2016 version of "Top is in."

ysette9 has one of the better posts in that thread, which I've seen others post similar in various threads as well.

Quote
If a 10% temporary correction throws your finances out of whack then you have the wrong asset allocation.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2536 on: March 12, 2018, 10:59:18 AM »
This is the 2016 version of top is in:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

At the time I was bummed that thread was shut down because we were “piling on” but clearly there is some use to letting this sort of thing run.  There was some real bull-cockery going on with Mr. P and his stock picks that just begged for it.  That school yard scrum got broken up and is reconvening here.   The point has not been to grind good old thor into the ground as much as it serves to remind all readers of the silliness of calling the market.

From what I read I don't think this thread is quite as mean-spirited as that one.

I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

Perfect market timers do exist; Top is in! they're just completely invisible Top is in! like the air all around you. 
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 11:05:31 AM by dougules »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2537 on: March 12, 2018, 04:44:04 PM »
If the top was in and the market is going to crash time stack bacon deep


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2538 on: March 12, 2018, 10:06:01 PM »


Edit: Top is in.
I know I'm late saying it but I still need to say this is a great summary of the thread. I want a poster too!

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2539 on: March 13, 2018, 06:25:26 PM »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2540 on: March 13, 2018, 10:08:29 PM »


Edit: Top is in.
I know I'm late saying it but I still need to say this is a great summary of the thread. I want a poster too!

It's official, I've changed my profile picture to this

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2541 on: March 13, 2018, 11:30:08 PM »
It's official, I've changed my profile picture to this
Schrödinger's bouncy cat riding bacon to the edge of the universe as it reaches for the top. That might be the best most top profile picture.

Toad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2542 on: March 14, 2018, 01:10:34 AM »
After performing a rigorous analysis, I have determined without a doubt that...the top is in.  Attached please find irrefutable proof.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2543 on: March 14, 2018, 08:24:00 AM »
I maintain my previous empirical observation that threads like this thrive on poorly timed market calls; however they wither when someone comes along and nail the top and the bottom in quick succession as evidenced by the lull we had witnessed between Mar 2nd to Mar 6th.

We all love to pile on people that f%^& up but feel inadequate and uncomfortable in the presence of something beyond comprehension and divine.

Who called a top on Mar 2nd and a bottom on Mar 6th?
I just scrolled back through the thread and couldn't find anything like that.

EDITED TO ADD:
Also, it looks like the market went up between Mar 2 and Mar 6, so if anyone did in fact call a top and then bottom they would have been wrong.  I assume I completely misunderstood what you meant.


Hi Mr.D
I am afraid of further jinxing, but hopefully all will be revealed, in time :)
fingers crossed.

Of course, when dealing with analytics it makes sense that 'jinxing' is of the utmost concern.
:)

I look forward to all being revealed.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2544 on: March 14, 2018, 08:33:25 AM »


Edit: Top is in.
I know I'm late saying it but I still need to say this is a great summary of the thread. I want a poster too!

It's official, I've changed my profile picture to this

Brilliant!

I must admit that I'm a little bit sad and jealous that I didn't think of that.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2545 on: March 16, 2018, 02:18:53 PM »
Top?

(I think this thread might be running out of steam.)

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2546 on: March 16, 2018, 02:42:28 PM »


Steaming to the TOP!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2547 on: March 16, 2018, 03:31:09 PM »


Steaming to the TOP!



Wrong!  All downhill from here!  Top is in!

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2548 on: March 17, 2018, 03:12:00 PM »


Steaming to the TOP!



Wrong!  All downhill from here!  Top is in!


At least there is a solid floor?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2549 on: March 17, 2018, 07:28:41 PM »




Wrong!  All downhill from here!  Top is in!

You're obviously not thinking fourth dimensionally!



Top was in on November 5, 1955