Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 477180 times)

Wintergreen78

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 52
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2400 on: February 26, 2018, 11:24:49 AM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Are you saying we are at the top again?

anisotropy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 511
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2401 on: February 26, 2018, 11:44:03 AM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

DarkandStormy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1143
  • Age: 29
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2402 on: February 26, 2018, 11:58:51 AM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

We have recovered to when thorstach called the mother of all tops in Feb. 2nd.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8234
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2403 on: February 26, 2018, 12:03:48 PM »
...so many tops...

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8055
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2404 on: February 26, 2018, 12:54:21 PM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Are you posting from the future again?  I thought the time police told you to quit that

Brother Esau

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 275
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2405 on: February 26, 2018, 01:43:47 PM »

MrMoneyMullet

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
  • Spending in the front, savings in the back.
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2406 on: February 26, 2018, 09:56:35 PM »
Traveling in South America for 5 weeks after FIRE.  No tops on beaches here, so figure markets are out of luck.No plans to check even once....

No plans to check out the market... errrr....?

TexasRunner

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 741
  • Location: Somewhere in Tejas
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2407 on: February 27, 2018, 08:01:29 AM »
The "information" top is in.

DS

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 321
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2408 on: February 27, 2018, 08:06:15 AM »
Top is in

anisotropy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 511
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2409 on: February 27, 2018, 11:31:14 AM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

What did I say about jinxing? Called it! I am greatpariahprophet #1! 40%! so smrt!

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6995
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2410 on: February 27, 2018, 01:52:15 PM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

What did I say about jinxing? Called it! I am greatpariahprophet #1! 40%! so smrt!

I'm confused.  You think the jinx is in because today the market gave back half of yesterday's gains?  We're still up compared to two days ago, and ten days ago, and three weeks ago.  I'm not seeing the problem here.

In fact, I'm not even sure the February "correction"should really count at all.  Yes, it technically dropped 10% from the peak, but that peak came after a 10% run up the previous month, the recovery was sharply V shaped, and now we're right back on the steady upward trend of the last two years, which have been incredible.  Right now, February just looks like random noise in the growth chart.

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1353
  • Age: 1817
  • Location: CO
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2411 on: February 27, 2018, 02:23:12 PM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

What did I say about jinxing? Called it! I am greatpariahprophet #1! 40%! so smrt!

I'm confused.  You think the jinx is in because today the market gave back half of yesterday's gains?  We're still up compared to two days ago, and ten days ago, and three weeks ago.  I'm not seeing the problem here.

In fact, I'm not even sure the February "correction"should really count at all.  Yes, it technically dropped 10% from the peak, but that peak came after a 10% run up the previous month, the recovery was sharply V shaped, and now we're right back on the steady upward trend of the last two years, which have been incredible.  Right now, February just looks like random noise in the growth chart.

Technical, chartist, mumbo-jumbo. You sound like thorstach!

thorstach

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2412 on: February 27, 2018, 02:35:24 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Mr. Boh

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
  • Location: The Land of Pleasant Living
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2413 on: February 27, 2018, 03:53:51 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Hallelujah he's back!

anisotropy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 511
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2414 on: February 27, 2018, 04:18:54 PM »
The mother of all tops is in.

We have no recovered from the mother of all tops (across all indexes) in less than 24 days and less than 15 trading days.

You lose.  Again.

Don't jinx us! we are not back at the top yet!

I recall reading a post (this thread?) saying market would be back to top by Feb 22nd, I can't seem to find it anymore. Anyway, close but not yet.

What did I say about jinxing? Called it! I am greatpariahprophet #1! 40%! so smrt!

I'm confused.  You think the jinx is in because today the market gave back half of yesterday's gains?  We're still up compared to two days ago, and ten days ago, and three weeks ago.  I'm not seeing the problem here.


Half? Yesterday (2/26) we went from (S&P) 2747 to 2779, today (2/27) we went from 2780 to 2744, looks like we gave back 100% of yesterday's gains and then some.

The problem, and it is a serious one, is that the market God frowns on these jinxes as an act of mockery! We must perform ritual sacrifices at once!

Brother Esau

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 275
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2415 on: February 27, 2018, 05:18:37 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

thorstach lives!


matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4246
  • Location: CT
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2416 on: February 27, 2018, 05:52:25 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Wait can you explain that one for me?

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6995
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2417 on: February 27, 2018, 06:45:44 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Wait can you explain that one for me?

There was a decline, which thorstach used to retrospectively call the top.  Then the market started to climb again, but had a down day before reaching its former peak.  The day before the new down day now retrospectively defines a second top.  Since it was not as high as the first top, if you draw a line connecting the first top and second top, the slope is negative.  Hence the downtrend comment.

Of course, it makes just as much sense to do the whole thing in reverse, and wait for a second up day and then declare the bottom is in, defining an up trend.  But thorstach knows that, and is just here for the lulz like the rest of us.

matchewed

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4246
  • Location: CT
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2418 on: February 27, 2018, 07:06:58 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Wait can you explain that one for me?

There was a decline, which thorstach used to retrospectively call the top.  Then the market started to climb again, but had a down day before reaching its former peak.  The day before the new down day now retrospectively defines a second top.  Since it was not as high as the first top, if you draw a line connecting the first top and second top, the slope is negative.  Hence the downtrend comment.

Of course, it makes just as much sense to do the whole thing in reverse, and wait for a second up day and then declare the bottom is in, defining an up trend.  But thorstach knows that, and is just here for the lulz like the rest of us.

You take your logic and explanations and something something something...

Heckler

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1333
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2419 on: February 27, 2018, 07:31:02 PM »
I wish you guys to the south could see the top from up here with the $C on top of the top!  Tip top.

aspiringnomad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 726
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2420 on: February 27, 2018, 10:04:17 PM »

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8055
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2421 on: February 27, 2018, 11:23:25 PM »
Fibonacci memoization top is down

JAYSLOL

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 888
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2422 on: February 27, 2018, 11:34:56 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend

Is a defined downtrend the same as a "confirmed downtrend"?  Or is it just a regual downtrend, unconfirmed and somewhat ill defined?  Also, I think you meant to say "the mother of all lower tops is in". 

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1141
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2423 on: February 27, 2018, 11:51:45 PM »
Lower top is in, defining a downtrend
Is a defined downtrend the same as a "confirmed downtrend"?  Or is it just a regual downtrend, unconfirmed and somewhat ill defined?  Also, I think you meant to say "the mother of all lower tops is in".
It's official. The Mother of All Lower Tops is in.

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1353
  • Age: 1817
  • Location: CO
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2424 on: February 28, 2018, 08:59:18 AM »
I'm pretty sure thorstach=sol

DS

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 321
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2425 on: February 28, 2018, 09:14:50 AM »
If the mother of all tops is in, do we have to wait until the top reaches adulthood?

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6995
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2426 on: February 28, 2018, 09:20:27 AM »
I'm pretty sure thorstach=sol

I am only thorstach in the sense that we are all thorstach.

But I'm not actually thorstach.  I don't have any alternate IDs on the forum.  I am always me when I'm here.

I have, however, been following this thread pretty closely for almost s year now, and I think I've identified the pattern.  Thorstach only calls the top on days when there is a significant market decline, which means he always misses the actual top, and isn't very useful as a trade signal. That's why somebody above pointed out that we have already recovered to the point at which thorstach called the top, even though we haven't yet reached the value at which the market peaked.  I think this is a useful lesson in market timing. Even with the benefit of perfect hindsight, it's hard to make money timing the market.

frugalnacho

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3152
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Madison Heights, Michigan
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2427 on: February 28, 2018, 09:50:01 AM »



DarkandStormy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1143
  • Age: 29
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2428 on: February 28, 2018, 09:53:10 AM »
That's why somebody above pointed out that we have already recovered to the point at which thorstach called the top, even though we haven't yet reached the value at which the market peaked.  I think this is a useful lesson in market timing. Even with the benefit of perfect hindsight, it's hard to make money timing the market.

You get a cookie.


Brother Esau

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 275
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2429 on: February 28, 2018, 10:02:56 AM »
Don't be selfish

dougules

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: AL
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2430 on: February 28, 2018, 10:57:54 AM »
We've hit the bottom on this thread.  OCSM (Oprah-Cookie-Simpson Meme) factor is way up, and thorstach posts are maintaining their previous levels. 

By the River

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 116
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2431 on: February 28, 2018, 12:56:06 PM »
I used to have a good life...I'd check the market every month or so to see how my investments were going and maybe hear financial news once a week that would give the Dow closing.  Then, a month ago I discovered this thread...now, I pull up the stock market ticker on my phone daily just so I can say "Top is in."  Life is hell...

BTW, Top is in!   

anisotropy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 511
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2432 on: February 28, 2018, 01:27:26 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

OurTown

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 898
  • Age: 48
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2433 on: February 28, 2018, 01:39:47 PM »
This thread is a work of art.  Performance art, yes, but art nonetheless.

anisotropy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 511
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2434 on: February 28, 2018, 02:03:34 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

pretty ugly price actions, we must make sacrifices at once! but where can we find virgins to appease market God in this day and age? I call on you, virgin minions, to walk toward the light and fulfill your destiny. Do it for the greater good!

The friendly and conniving resident prophet will return soon, stay tuned.

JAYSLOL

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 888
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2435 on: February 28, 2018, 03:34:03 PM »
This thread is a work of art.  Performance art, yes, but art nonetheless.

I always thought this thread could do well as a template to make a financial comedy tv series about a bunch of people at coffee shop who talk about the market.  Sol could be the guy you never see in the same frame as thorstach, anisotropy could be the character that goes on opinionated rants that your never sure if they are ridiculous or genius, id probably be the weird barista that inserts into every conversation and thorstach would be that guy that comes in all the time just to say his way-over-used catchphrase "Hey guys, the Top is In!" (Cue audience laugh-track)

Seradoc

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 44
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2436 on: February 28, 2018, 06:08:15 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

pretty ugly price actions, we must make sacrifices at once! but where can we find virgins to appease market God in this day and age? I call on you, virgin minions, to walk toward the light and fulfill your destiny. Do it for the greater good!

The friendly and conniving resident prophet will return soon, stay tuned.

Bottom virgins?  We've all seen the top.

ILikeDividends

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 270
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2437 on: February 28, 2018, 08:23:36 PM »
The problem, and it is a serious one, is that the market God frowns on these jinxes as an act of mockery! We must perform ritual sacrifices at once!
Slaughter a goat, and leave it on your keyboard. 

The top is merely an illusion blinding the heathen.  The One True Top is an ascension above all others.

So it has been written.  So it shall be done.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2018, 08:29:06 PM by ILikeDividends »

tyort1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1927
  • Age: 46
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2438 on: February 28, 2018, 10:20:00 PM »
jinxy jinx
miss Hannah minx
stare and don't blink
for your timing stinks!

pretty ugly price actions, we must make sacrifices at once! but where can we find virgins to appease market God in this day and age? I call on you, virgin minions, to walk toward the light and fulfill your destiny. Do it for the greater good!

The friendly and conniving resident prophet will return soon, stay tuned.

Bottom virgins? We've all seen the top.

Naughty!

big_owl

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 529
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2439 on: March 01, 2018, 08:02:34 AM »
Don't be selfish

Everybody getting sump'n



Clean Shaven

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 787
  • Location: Wild Wild West
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2440 on: March 01, 2018, 12:53:06 PM »
With today's idiotic tariff announcement....

METAL TOP IS IN!


anisotropy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 511
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2441 on: March 01, 2018, 01:00:18 PM »
Minions,

Today I want to mainly reflect on our past lessons.

In our last sermon, merely days before the market God reached down and wiped out the wicked scourge of inverse-vol, I, the greatprophettm, said to you: "Sometimes to continue our ascent, we must first go down; to go further, we must first set camp and recover our strength. "

And down we went, 200 points and change since Feb 1st. The vengeful OT market Lord mocks and rages against false top and bottoms (jinxers) callers alike, as we've witnessed time and time again here. Yet he revealth his secrets only unto his servants the TrueProphetstm, for we are the faithful and the righteous. Verily I say unto you, my faithful minions: The climb shall be renewed, be ready to bask in the warmth of market highs once again by our next sermon*. Your pain and sufferings will be rewarded momentarily.

* the easy way out is of course to not give another sermon until we make new highs :)

Last November, I said "the source of all lights is also the fountain of darkness, and the beast stirs in the shadows" regarding the market and fundamentals; I elaborated further in Jan to help people others understand better: "Market sours not because of weakness, but from excessive strength". I hope these insightful and wise words are now part of your daily prayers. To a large extent, the recent "correction" spawned from upside surprises, it was both healthy and normal.

However, the shadow of war is upon us once more. By Divine and Royal decree, the Eternal Godemperor has made several questionable wise and just decisions, which brought the final Top much closer.

I want to end today's sermon with a quote from a faithful who had clearly been listening:

The One True Top is an ascension above all others.

So it has been written.  So it shall be done.

Amen

techwiz

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 472
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2442 on: March 01, 2018, 01:53:12 PM »



Has anyone noticed this thread has gone preachy? ... or is it just me! 

PathtoFIRE

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Dallas
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2443 on: March 01, 2018, 02:04:53 PM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

swashbucklinstache

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 196
  • Location: Midwest U.S.
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2444 on: March 01, 2018, 04:46:25 PM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

Shun the non-believer! Shun!

MrMoneyMullet

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
  • Spending in the front, savings in the back.
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2445 on: March 01, 2018, 08:56:19 PM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

Shun the non-believer! Shun!

SHUUUUnnnnnnn. N.

JAYSLOL

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 888
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2446 on: March 01, 2018, 10:59:00 PM »
Happy 50th page Top Is In

Maenad

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 287
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2447 on: March 02, 2018, 06:40:28 AM »
No, it's just that with the top actually being in*, we've all found religion.

*just to clarify, I don't actually believe this

A scarlet U for the Unbeliever! Let all who see their posts know that they are apostate!


KTG

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 198
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2448 on: March 02, 2018, 07:40:51 AM »
Well, it seems to me Top was in for awhile. I don't see things bouncing back to Jan numbers for awhile.

I just raised my stake bigtime in VTI in Jan too. Now I feel like an idiot.

DS

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 321
Re: Top is in
« Reply #2449 on: March 02, 2018, 08:18:54 AM »
It will never recover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!