Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 158963 times)

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1400 on: December 12, 2017, 11:02:15 AM »
I wasn't trying to be confusing, BTDretire. Anything in particular I can clarify from that post?

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1401 on: December 12, 2017, 11:04:37 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)
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ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1402 on: December 12, 2017, 11:46:37 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 11:49:53 AM by ILikeDividends »

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1403 on: December 13, 2017, 04:55:13 AM »
SP500 hits new all-time high.  Top is in (again?)
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1404 on: December 13, 2017, 10:31:02 AM »
SP500 hits new all-time high.  Top is in (again?)

Strangely enough, my Stache has also hit a new all time high.  Coincidence?
Frugalite in training.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1405 on: December 13, 2017, 10:56:27 AM »
SP500 hits new all-time high.  Top is in (again?)

Strangely enough, my Stache has also hit a new all time high.  Coincidence?

I think not! Top confirmed!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1406 on: December 13, 2017, 11:27:05 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSZMqMVER_Q

The top was in in the late 70s.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1407 on: December 13, 2017, 11:50:35 AM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)

Well played.  I actually got nosey and looked at some of your other posts trying to figure out if you were serious or just snarking.  I guessed wrong. 

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1408 on: December 13, 2017, 12:02:57 PM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)

Well played.  I actually got nosey and looked at some of your other posts trying to figure out if you were serious or just snarking.  I guessed wrong.

That's one thing I really like about the MMM community - our first instinct is to help.  Which is both rare and awesome.
Frugalite in training.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1409 on: December 13, 2017, 12:35:12 PM »
I'm looking at the S&P 500 for the last 30 days and I'm confused - the top WASN'T in??  But people said it WAS.  Oh dear, this stock market stuff is just too confusing.

Just ignore this thread if you're looking for actual information.  If you read back through you will see that anybody that thinks they can call the top of the market has been quite wrong.  A lot of this thread is just people having a laugh about folks who think they can make market timing work. 

It's actually fairly simple.  Buy diversified low-cost mutual funds when you have money you don't need to spend in the short term, then sell them when you need money to spend.  Ignore the S&P 500, the Dow, the news, the naysayers, the yaysayers, and anybody else that thinks they know what the near future will bring.  In the long term the market will be just fine.

Oh I know.  I was just playing along with the rest of the snark in this thread :)


wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1410 on: December 14, 2017, 03:06:52 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

http://www.businessinsider.com/vix-volatility-trader-50-cent-lost-197-million-betting-on-market-meltdown-2017-12

Thorstach that you?

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1411 on: December 15, 2017, 09:48:32 AM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1412 on: December 15, 2017, 10:27:25 AM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1413 on: December 15, 2017, 11:37:59 AM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.
...then what is 50 cent?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1414 on: December 15, 2017, 11:42:27 AM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.



anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1415 on: December 15, 2017, 11:44:00 AM »
No sermon this month, I am too busy with other stuffs.... but it appears the melt up scenario I brought up in October (reply #939) is upon us. May [insert entity of choice] have mercy on us all.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1416 on: December 15, 2017, 11:48:21 AM »
No sermon this month, I am too busy with other stuffs.... but it appears the melt up scenario I brought up in October (reply #939) is upon us. May [insert entity of choice] have mercy on us all.

In other words the top is in

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1417 on: December 15, 2017, 12:02:19 PM »
No sermon this month, I am too busy with other stuffs.... but it appears the melt up scenario I brought up in October (reply #939) is upon us. May [insert entity of choice] have mercy on us all.

In other words the top is in

nay, melt up, not melt down.

PizzaSteve

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1418 on: December 15, 2017, 12:19:00 PM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.
...then what is 50 cent?
I actually was approached by 50 cent who was selling his mix tapes at an Oakland Gas station, years ago.  He would ask for 50 cents when panhandling...a marketing genius, because all the other beggers would always ask for a spare dollar.
All posts are opinions of the author subject to independent verification by the reader.  No representations of fact are asserted regarding commercial products or services.

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1419 on: December 15, 2017, 02:03:35 PM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.



This really cracked me up.

Oh yeah top is in!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1420 on: December 15, 2017, 03:09:32 PM »
50 cent can just release another album and make it all back.

50 cent is not actually 50 cent.



This really cracked me up.

Oh yeah top is in!

It's oddly hypnotic. Kinda like this entire thread.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1421 on: December 15, 2017, 10:23:59 PM »
2675 is it the top or just another false peak?
False peak is my prediction

Apple_Tango

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1422 on: December 16, 2017, 10:13:58 AM »
It’s downhill from here. Top in.
It's a lateral freeze down during the melt up.  Soon to be followed by the transverse falling bounce and the transient index inversion short, both of which are also strong sell signals in this buyer's market.

Heckler

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1423 on: December 16, 2017, 09:53:38 PM »
2675 is it the top or just another false peak?
False peak is my prediction

https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/analysis/2017/11/14/the-s-p-is-doing-this-for-the-first-time-in-years

Quote
November 14, 2017  - From current levels, another 3.71% rally for the broad-market barometer over the next three months would place the S&P around 2,675 -- deep into uncharted territory.

Schaeffer predicted 2675 by February 2018.   So yeah, no one knows.
( just a random google search on my part)
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 09:56:16 PM by Heckler »

phil22

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1424 on: December 17, 2017, 11:37:29 AM »
found a s&p 500 chart on yahoo finance where you can set the Y axis to log scale.  if you draw a highly accurate and highly revealing trend line, as i have done, and try to include past bubbles and recessions and corrections, you can clearly see that the top may be in but we are also clearly not in some huge bubble.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 11:40:18 AM by phil22 »

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1425 on: December 17, 2017, 01:09:56 PM »
Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1426 on: December 17, 2017, 02:02:13 PM »
Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Shit!.. really?..;)

phil22

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1427 on: December 17, 2017, 02:52:51 PM »
Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Shit!.. really?..;)

slashing the corporate tax rate means the top is probably not in... right?

sherr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1428 on: December 18, 2017, 06:46:21 AM »
Tax reform is done. Top is in. Sell now!

Shit!.. really?..;)

slashing the corporate tax rate means the top is probably not in... right?

Sorry to bring a serious answer into this thread (you started it!) but the top may still be in. Theoretically an efficient market would already have priced-in the advantages from the tax bill. Republicans have even been using that logic to pressure each other into voting for it; "The expectation of the tax bill has been partially responsible for the market run-up! We have to pass it now or the market will crash and people will blame us!"

How much of that is actually true is hard to say. So don't let politics dampen your top-calling.

capitalninja

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1429 on: December 18, 2017, 06:56:44 AM »
How has this thread not died yet?
Investments: Vanguard ETFs and a few individual stocks to achieve the sector balance I'm after. Investment book reviews and other ramblings: https://www.youtube.com/user/ciphermonk

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1430 on: December 18, 2017, 07:03:15 AM »

Wealthy investors were defrauded in this Ponzi scheme.

Had they simply invested in a Vanguard like total stock market index the investors would have been far better off.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/he-stole-dollar100-million-from-his-clients-now-he’s-living-in-luxury-on-the-côte-d’azur/ar-BBGWnSv?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1431 on: December 18, 2017, 07:35:27 AM »
How has this thread not died yet?

Because we keep topping the top!


meatgrinder

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1432 on: December 18, 2017, 09:38:12 AM »
100% out of the market and all in GLD.  Going to the gun store today.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1433 on: December 18, 2017, 09:41:37 AM »
100% out of the market and all in GLD.  Going to the gun store today.



Don't forget the sardines!

Davids

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1434 on: December 18, 2017, 09:50:44 AM »
S&P less than 10 points away from 2700 right now.

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1435 on: December 18, 2017, 10:16:41 AM »
I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.
 The Top is Not in, yet.

UUh, we can have a "The Bottom is in" thread.
 For that we can even pick numbers!
 I say 2,376 on the S&P.
See ya there.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1436 on: December 18, 2017, 10:31:05 AM »
I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

The question isn't if, it's when. But... the whole point of the thread and the piling on is that if we do get a 20% drop after a 30% gain and we were told the top is in 30% ago... we lost a lot.

Already Vanguard total stock market (VTI) is up 20% YTD. Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex US is up 23% YTD. Add a couple more % for dividends. So yeah, 20% drop? doesn't seem too bad to me.

Anyway, the top is in now for sure!

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1437 on: December 18, 2017, 10:39:31 AM »
I wasn't trying to be confusing, BTDretire. Anything in particular I can clarify from that post?

 Can you start with Bitcoin?  ;-)

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1438 on: December 18, 2017, 10:41:43 AM »
How has this thread not died yet?

Because the top is in.

max9505672

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1439 on: December 18, 2017, 10:51:06 AM »
I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

The question isn't if, it's when. But... the whole point of the thread and the piling on is that if we do get a 20% drop after a 30% gain and we were told the top is in 30% ago... we lost a lot.

Already Vanguard total stock market (VTI) is up 20% YTD. Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex US is up 23% YTD. Add a couple more % for dividends. So yeah, 20% drop? doesn't seem too bad to me.

Anyway, the top is in now for sure!
I wish I had started investing sooner than March 2017. I keep my fingers crossed than the drop will wait  just a little more so that the gains made will upset the losses.

Ho, never mind, top is in, I'm selling everything.

Tonyahu

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1440 on: December 18, 2017, 12:40:23 PM »
want to cash out all my "Bitcoins" but need dat equities dip

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1441 on: December 18, 2017, 12:48:15 PM »
I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.
 The Top is Not in, yet.

UUh, we can have a "The Bottom is in" thread.
 For that we can even pick numbers!
 I say 2,376 on the S&P.
See ya there.

I tried this a couple years ago when the market was dropping.  I think someone voted S&P 500 at 1200 and that was that.

The problem of course is that it's fine and good to sell at a top (not really) but not worth much if you don't know when to buy back in.

In other news, international is way up, so it looks like Le Top is in.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1442 on: December 18, 2017, 01:01:23 PM »
I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.

For the record, I continued to participate in the "discussion" in September after we had lost in the summer due to strong cad, granted it wasn't even close to 20% but still hurt all the same, especially when most of the 'muricans made money.

Curiously, the best performing "Chinese" index this year, HSI, reversed the trend and grossly underperformed the s&p since August 6th, after I had pointed out the possibility in reply #548. Merely coincidence I am sure, I get tons of those.

There is no doubt to me that we are currently in a bubble, and the bubble may get bigger yet. When it finally bursts I hope to continue post in this thread.

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1443 on: December 18, 2017, 01:28:42 PM »
I wonder how many posters will be in this thread if we have a 20% correction.
 The Top is Not in, yet.

UUh, we can have a "The Bottom is in" thread.
 For that we can even pick numbers!
 I say 2,376 on the S&P.
See ya there.
A 20% correction only takes us back to the election. The market has had quite the rally this year.
FIRE, Take Two.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1444 on: December 18, 2017, 01:38:37 PM »
I predict no market correction higher than 10% in 2018. Stocks will keep rallying and people will keep saying the Top is In!

Tonyahu

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1445 on: December 18, 2017, 01:46:08 PM »
Due to the recent rallies and arguably "bubble valuations", has anyone taken say 2 or even 3 years out of the portfolio so they can run on cash if it were to dip? Better than pulling 4% from a portfolio that got split in half.

Just an idea

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1446 on: December 18, 2017, 02:01:35 PM »
How has this thread not died yet?

Because there are a lot more memes to go through.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1447 on: December 18, 2017, 02:04:02 PM »
How has this thread not died yet?

Because there are a lot more memes to go through.

I suspect the meme market will never see a top

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1448 on: December 18, 2017, 02:10:04 PM »

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1449 on: December 18, 2017, 02:10:32 PM »
Clearly, the meme top is in.