Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 542818 times)

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3550 on: October 12, 2018, 09:17:51 AM »
I happen to have perfect market timing this time around, purely by accident: I'm in the process of moving my HSA, so had to sell all the investment account ($45K in VIIIX). It was all in cash during this week's hiccup.

Who wants to touch me? I didn't lose 5% or whatever of my $45K! 

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3551 on: October 12, 2018, 10:23:06 AM »
I happen to have perfect market timing this time around, purely by accident: I'm in the process of moving my HSA, so had to sell all the investment account ($45K in VIIIX). It was all in cash during this week's hiccup.

Who wants to touch me? I didn't lose 5% or whatever of my $45K!

OK, but which way?

A) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_You_Wanna_Touch_Me

B) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touch_Me_I%27m_Sick

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3552 on: October 12, 2018, 10:55:19 AM »
Ok guys, Cut it out 😀. Thread is becoming serious and off-topic.

We need to see some charts with lots of squiggly lines and what not. We must have an ex-Chartist or two. We’re waiting. What about a super duper mega death cross or something. There are still lots of animals left.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3553 on: October 12, 2018, 11:08:21 AM »
My market timing was even better a decade ago.  I went to law school in 2006-09 when I was in my 30s.  I was able to take penalty-free withdrawals from my rollover IRA from my earlier career (for qualified educational expenses).  I essentially drew down the account leading up to and through the fall of '08, taking the last drawn down in January of '09.  I didn't start making (and saving/investing) money again until the fall of '09, and it's been nothing but blue skies ever since.  So I largely avoided the crash of 08 due to life circumstances.

My real estate market timing was similar.  We bought our house in mid 2010, when our local real estate market was still pretty much in the cellar. 

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3554 on: October 12, 2018, 11:10:42 AM »
Ok guys, Cut it out 😀. Thread is becoming serious and off-topic.

We need to see some charts with lots of squiggly lines and what not. We must have an ex-Chartist or two. We’re waiting. What about a super duper mega death cross or something. There are still lots of animals left.

I gotcha covered.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3555 on: October 12, 2018, 12:04:07 PM »
I happen to have perfect market timing this time around, purely by accident: I'm in the process of moving my HSA, so had to sell all the investment account ($45K in VIIIX). It was all in cash during this week's hiccup.

DH had something similar happen with 2 old 401ks that he rolled into an IRA. More than makes up for when I did a similar rollover in 2015 and it went the other way.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3556 on: October 12, 2018, 12:38:58 PM »
Chart analyst Katie Stockton sees loudest buy signal in the stock market since the crushing February low*

Anyone else here glad they suffered such a crushing February that this October dip means nothing? I feel like the investors here have such a short term memory, that no one remembers how crushing this past February was.


*Don't bother to read the article expecting to find out exactly what that signal is. It is not for us to understand, but rather to just respond once we are given the signals from our betters.

onlykelsey

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3557 on: October 12, 2018, 12:44:44 PM »
Chart analyst Katie Stockton sees loudest buy signal in the stock market since the crushing February low*

Anyone else here glad they suffered such a crushing February that this October dip means nothing? I feel like the investors here have such a short term memory, that no one remembers how crushing this past February was.
I was just thinking this! I honestly have no memory of the February dip, but this one "feels" more ominous to me, which makes no sense.  I wonder if background political noise or my personal life circumstances is making it feel worse.

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3558 on: October 12, 2018, 01:06:27 PM »
Chart analyst Katie Stockton sees loudest buy signal in the stock market since the crushing February low*

Anyone else here glad they suffered such a crushing February that this October dip means nothing? I feel like the investors here have such a short term memory, that no one remembers how crushing this past February was.
I was just thinking this! I honestly have no memory of the February dip, but this one "feels" more ominous to me, which makes no sense.  I wonder if background political noise or my personal life circumstances is making it feel worse.

It probably feels worse because we don't know if it's going to continue down or turn around tomorrow. Pretty much like every other day ever. Looking back on February, it already recovered, so no worries.

That may sound stupid/obvious but I think it's really a psychological trick that our brains play on us. It's the same way when you play a trivia game and you think you should know an answer, it's right on the tip of your tongue, then somebody says the answer and brain says "yep, I knew that"... but you didn't. The brain goes back and fills in the blanks with the new information and so it's hard to remember how things really happened.

All the more true for feelings which are inevitably influenced by how you feel right now. Is it even possible to remember feelings without actually feeling the way you felt?
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 01:09:24 PM by Dabnasty »

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3559 on: October 12, 2018, 02:53:21 PM »
The difference is 10 years ago I was 50% leveraged and had no cash.

This time my margin loan stands at $10 credit(!) and I have well north of six figures ready to use to catch the falling knives.

I like to think I have learned from my mistakes.

So . . . market timing?  Not sure lesson learned.

When will your entrance point be?  5% drop?  10% drop?  20% drop?  Timing is a pretty arbitrary thing without a plan (or a crystal ball).

Yes market timing. You can put your money in on the same day every 2 weeks forever, or you can recognise when it is simply and utterly stupid to do so and wait a little bit.

Up to the peak, do you guys realise Amazon was trading on 244 times earnings? 244 times! That goes way beyond dot.com stupidity. And that one stock is more than 5% of the S&P 500. And this is before we start talking about additional regulations to be imposed on your other tech companies who have been abusing our privacy for far too long.

Down here we have 4 banks geared towards residential property lending comprising 25% of our market and we are entering the first real property bust in a generation caused by macro-prudential controls, sentiment, weak wage growth, lack of confidence in government and tax rules and good old fashioned greed and excess. The stock prices have already fallen significantly, but they are not writing enough loans now to ensure future sustained profit growth.

This week is not going to be one of those 3 day corrections and the index continues to march steadily upwards again. I'm not going to wait forever, but there's absolutely no rush to pile back in over the next month or 2.

Top is in for now(!). I will swallow my sea of red on the broker screens for the near future and progressively dump my cash in over the next 6 months as the market falls. Absolutely pointless doing it now, and I saved myself 7% by not throwing it all in 5 weeks ago.

I cannot predict the bottom, but this is one of those moments where you know you are not there yet.

You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)

Of course one day we will see these recent highs eclipsed. Just don't bank on it being any time in the very near future.

Apologies for the poor form in quoting myself here, but I'll hasten to add my desired asset allocation is not 100% stocks. I have a mix of property, shares and cash which has served my risk profile well over the past few years.

In no way have I missed the run up by not investing. Indeed I've poured $4000 a month on average into our local index over the last 3 years. Though from about August, I've not been in a hurry to continue at that rate (however I probably bought a small parcel at the absolute peak!)
Well, I'm gonna quote you for preservation purposes. These are some very specific claims here, plus one of superior knowledge. These need to be reviewed in the future! :D

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3560 on: October 12, 2018, 03:10:48 PM »
Ok guys, Cut it out 😀. Thread is becoming serious and off-topic.

We need to see some charts with lots of squiggly lines and what not. We must have an ex-Chartist or two. We’re waiting. What about a super duper mega death cross or something. There are still lots of animals left.

I gotcha covered.

Nicely done. I'w waiting got the retrograde goat loop. 😀


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3561 on: October 12, 2018, 03:36:02 PM »
You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)

Of course one day we will see these recent highs eclipsed. Just don't bank on it being any time in the very near future.

Grief?  I'm still buying.  I'm ELATED that the market has gone down over the past few days.  Yes more please. 

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3562 on: October 13, 2018, 03:59:39 PM »
Ok guys, Cut it out 😀. Thread is becoming serious and off-topic.

We need to see some charts with lots of squiggly lines and what not. We must have an ex-Chartist or two. We’re waiting. What about a super duper mega death cross or something. There are still lots of animals left.

I gotcha covered.

Nicely done. I'w waiting got the retrograde goat loop. 😀


I guess I don't know anything about technical analysis because I thought for sure that the loop was the GOAT MOAT. I bow to your expertise.

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3563 on: October 13, 2018, 05:04:55 PM »
Ok guys, Cut it out 😀. Thread is becoming serious and off-topic.

We need to see some charts with lots of squiggly lines and what not. We must have an ex-Chartist or two. We’re waiting. What about a super duper mega death cross or something. There are still lots of animals left.

I gotcha covered.

Nicely done. I'w waiting got the retrograde goat loop. 😀


I guess I don't know anything about technical analysis because I thought for sure that the loop was the GOAT MOAT. I bow to your expertise.

HaHaHaHa ............. ROFL. We need @thorstach to educate us noobies.
 

dixonge

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3564 on: October 13, 2018, 07:32:46 PM »
Maybe someone else has already pointed this out, but the recent top is 850 points (S&P) above the price on the day this thread started.

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3565 on: October 15, 2018, 03:19:45 AM »
The difference is 10 years ago I was 50% leveraged and had no cash.

This time my margin loan stands at $10 credit(!) and I have well north of six figures ready to use to catch the falling knives.

I like to think I have learned from my mistakes.

So . . . market timing?  Not sure lesson learned.

When will your entrance point be?  5% drop?  10% drop?  20% drop?  Timing is a pretty arbitrary thing without a plan (or a crystal ball).

Yes market timing. You can put your money in on the same day every 2 weeks forever, or you can recognise when it is simply and utterly stupid to do so and wait a little bit.

Up to the peak, do you guys realise Amazon was trading on 244 times earnings? 244 times! That goes way beyond dot.com stupidity. And that one stock is more than 5% of the S&P 500. And this is before we start talking about additional regulations to be imposed on your other tech companies who have been abusing our privacy for far too long.

Down here we have 4 banks geared towards residential property lending comprising 25% of our market and we are entering the first real property bust in a generation caused by macro-prudential controls, sentiment, weak wage growth, lack of confidence in government and tax rules and good old fashioned greed and excess. The stock prices have already fallen significantly, but they are not writing enough loans now to ensure future sustained profit growth.

This week is not going to be one of those 3 day corrections and the index continues to march steadily upwards again. I'm not going to wait forever, but there's absolutely no rush to pile back in over the next month or 2.

Top is in for now(!). I will swallow my sea of red on the broker screens for the near future and progressively dump my cash in over the next 6 months as the market falls. Absolutely pointless doing it now, and I saved myself 7% by not throwing it all in 5 weeks ago.

I cannot predict the bottom, but this is one of those moments where you know you are not there yet.

You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)

Of course one day we will see these recent highs eclipsed. Just don't bank on it being any time in the very near future.

Apologies for the poor form in quoting myself here, but I'll hasten to add my desired asset allocation is not 100% stocks. I have a mix of property, shares and cash which has served my risk profile well over the past few years.

In no way have I missed the run up by not investing. Indeed I've poured $4000 a month on average into our local index over the last 3 years. Though from about August, I've not been in a hurry to continue at that rate (however I probably bought a small parcel at the absolute peak!)
Well, I'm gonna quote you for preservation purposes. These are some very specific claims here, plus one of superior knowledge. These need to be reviewed in the future! :D

Fair enough, I've stuck my neck out and (partly) said why I think we are in for a rough time ahead. There are several more reasons why I believe what I do. FWIW I bought some on the Aussie market today - we are now 9% down from the peak, and yes, I am rather smugly satisfied I held off for a couple of weeks and got 10% more shares than I otherwise would have with this purchase ;)


It's one thing to pile on someone who has been saying "the market will fall" for the last 3 years, it's another to pile on when it is actually happening LOL.

You seem awfully sure of yourself.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and short the market. Since this is apparently so incredibly clear, you should be a billionaire in just a few short months, right?

I am ideologically opposed to shorting in general. I do not believe it has any place on the main markets.

Derivatives and other markets, fine, go for your life. Otherwise, nope. I don't buy the argument that it aids in price discovery and provides additional liquidity. Fact is that it is far too easy for a market participant to take a short position, spread a baseless rumour, and have every algo trader out there selling on the rumour.

Price manipulation is not something I want to see more of.

Looks like we may be finally getting that long overdue correction (I don't really count the February one as it shot up in January and then just went right back to December levels).


@fattest_foot - Perhaps you should take your own advice before you dish it out to me.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 03:21:55 AM by marty998 »

theoverlook

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3566 on: October 15, 2018, 08:46:03 AM »
Goat moat!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3567 on: October 15, 2018, 10:50:16 AM »
Goat moat!


This is getting very Dr. Seuss-y.  A goat and a boat that float in a moat put a stop to the top. 

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3568 on: October 15, 2018, 11:22:05 AM »
I think I've been oversleeping lately. Did I miss anything about The Top? Is it in, or did I miss it?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3569 on: October 15, 2018, 12:45:52 PM »
Greatest Of All Time, Yuckiness Only Gonna Accelerate, TOP


MasterStache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3570 on: October 15, 2018, 01:43:51 PM »
How about recommendations for a new spin off thread? Bottom is in? Middle is in?

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3571 on: October 15, 2018, 03:24:23 PM »
How about recommendations for a new spin off thread? Bottom is in? Middle is in?

There was a "Bottom is in" thread in February.  It actually did happen at the bottom, believe it or not. 

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3572 on: October 15, 2018, 05:56:06 PM »
bottom is in post coming. wait for it. Beuller, beuller, thorstach.....

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3573 on: October 15, 2018, 06:54:08 PM »
bottom is in post coming. wait for it. Beuller, beuller, thorstach.....

Bottoms are beneath thorstach, so to speak, he only has time for Tops

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3574 on: October 16, 2018, 06:58:32 AM »
Bottoms are beneath thorstach...

I didn't realize this was that kind of thread!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3575 on: October 18, 2018, 09:30:28 AM »
bottom is in post coming. wait for it. Beuller, beuller, thorstach.....

Bottoms are beneath thorstach, so to speak, he only has time for Tops

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfhphrmKdsg

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3576 on: October 18, 2018, 09:49:19 AM »
When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide
Where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride
Till I get to the bottom and I see you again

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3577 on: October 18, 2018, 10:22:14 AM »
Today's Marketwatch headline is "Stocks threaten to book first two-day decline in a week".  IN A WEEK

Yes, truly the end is nigh, today could be the first time we've had two bad days, for seven days.  Remember the halcyon days of yore, a half-fortnight ago?  Ahhh, our lives have been truly blessed since then, as we basked in the glorious tranquility of five whole days without two bad ones in a row.

BSL18

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3578 on: October 18, 2018, 11:36:09 AM »
Today's Marketwatch headline is "Stocks threaten to book first two-day decline in a week".  IN A WEEK

Yes, truly the end is nigh, today could be the first time we've had two bad days, for seven days.  Remember the halcyon days of yore, a half-fortnight ago?  Ahhh, our lives have been truly blessed since then, as we basked in the glorious tranquility of five whole days without two bad ones in a row.

I want that tone used in my next weather forecast!! "Although we've been blessed with plenty fruitful sunny eras, the last two days of drizzle will bring upon us the next Flood"

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3579 on: October 18, 2018, 11:47:39 AM »
Today's Marketwatch headline is "Stocks threaten to book first two-day decline in a week".  IN A WEEK

Yes, truly the end is nigh, today could be the first time we've had two bad days, for seven days.  Remember the halcyon days of yore, a half-fortnight ago?  Ahhh, our lives have been truly blessed since then, as we basked in the glorious tranquility of five whole days without two bad ones in a row.

It's been almost 4 hours since the sun was down, too! 4 whole hours!

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3580 on: October 18, 2018, 11:54:02 AM »
Today's Marketwatch headline is "Stocks threaten to book first two-day decline in a week".  IN A WEEK

Yes, truly the end is nigh, today could be the first time we've had two bad days, for seven days.  Remember the halcyon days of yore, a half-fortnight ago?  Ahhh, our lives have been truly blessed since then, as we basked in the glorious tranquility of five whole days without two bad ones in a row.

It's been almost 4 hours since the sun was down, too! 4 whole hours!

By my calculations we've been receiving less and less daylight each day for MONTHS now!  I suspect that peak sun occurred some time around June 21st.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3581 on: October 18, 2018, 12:09:21 PM »
Solstice is in.

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3582 on: October 18, 2018, 12:20:09 PM »
Solstice is in.

Removing the top from a Solstice...

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3583 on: October 18, 2018, 12:27:50 PM »
Solstice is in.

Removing the top from a Solstice...

Equinox is in, solstice to follow

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3584 on: October 18, 2018, 12:55:28 PM »
Today's Marketwatch headline is "Stocks threaten to book first two-day decline in a week".  IN A WEEK

Yes, truly the end is nigh, today could be the first time we've had two bad days, for seven days.  Remember the halcyon days of yore, a half-fortnight ago?  Ahhh, our lives have been truly blessed since then, as we basked in the glorious tranquility of five whole days without two bad ones in a row.

It's been almost 4 hours since the sun was down, too! 4 whole hours!


solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3585 on: October 18, 2018, 01:02:15 PM »

slow hand slow plan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3586 on: October 18, 2018, 01:26:10 PM »
The Bulltrap is ready to be sprung....

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3587 on: October 18, 2018, 03:36:11 PM »
I'm moving all my money out of solar panels and into flashlights. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3588 on: October 18, 2018, 04:06:32 PM »
Fleshlights?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3589 on: October 18, 2018, 06:37:24 PM »
I'm moving all my money out of solar panels and into flashlights.

Fleshlights?

What a difference a vowel makes.

« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 06:43:51 PM by ILikeDividends »

thesis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3590 on: October 18, 2018, 11:43:21 PM »
Goat is in

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3591 on: October 19, 2018, 01:16:08 AM »

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3592 on: October 19, 2018, 01:30:44 AM »
BUTT is in (bottom under triple top)

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3593 on: October 19, 2018, 06:50:37 AM »
I'm moving all my money out of solar panels and into flashlights.

Fleshlights?

What a difference a vowel makes.

Tip is in.

dreadmoose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3594 on: October 19, 2018, 01:30:32 PM »


Top is In, it wobbles but never falls

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3595 on: October 19, 2018, 01:48:13 PM »
Topception
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top
Quote
top within a top

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3596 on: October 19, 2018, 02:39:16 PM »

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3597 on: October 22, 2018, 01:38:33 PM »
Now we're just being silly.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3598 on: October 23, 2018, 07:05:28 AM »

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3599 on: October 23, 2018, 08:14:57 AM »