Top is in

[MrDelane]

[Clean Shaven]

The top is in, again.






Just like last time.




And the next time.






And the time after that.





Seems familiar, doesn't it?

[sirdoug007]

So many tops!  Each red dot is not a "red DOW" but a new top!

148 tops over the last four years!

Calling the top is a really, really hard game to play. Imagine being negative on the market in 2013, and seeing 148 new all-time highs over the next four years? What does that do to your psychology? Can you ever recover from that?

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/06/13/all-time-high/

[Clean Shaven]

The top just keep coming back to life, reborn like a phoenix from the flames.

Like a Megatop Phoenix.

[OurTown]

This thread has lost all substance and it is just a collection of silly memes.

[OurTown]

Except it never had substance to begin with.

[Clean Shaven]

[solon]

That's it, boys. After today's performance, top is gone.

[Maenad]

Oh no. The world is coming to an end. Run for the hills.

[MasterStache]

That's it, boys. After today's performance, top is gone.

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!!! No wait Buy Buy Buy!!! Oh lordy I am confused.

[UnleashHell]

That's it, boys. After today's performance, top is gone.

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!!! No wait Buy Buy Buy!!! Oh lordy I am confused.

are you Jim Cramer?

[TomTX]

Man, your username does NOT check out. You seem REALLY enamored with these bearded guys. ;)

[TomTX]

When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.

OP has gone radio silent, as has basically everyone else who has spent the past several years making proclamations of doom.  Maybe everyone is finally on board the growth train?

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

Well, if all these doom and gloom guys finally give up and buy in, we can have the final runup before the market goes on sale with a nice big crash!

:D

[JAYSLOL]

When will we get the final Top being in that the OP referred to? I am getting concerned.

OP has gone radio silent, as has basically everyone else who has spent the past several years making proclamations of doom.  Maybe everyone is finally on board the growth train?

Is that concerning?  As long as someone thinks the market is about to crash, the market maintains a healthy trading volume and seeks an equilibrium of expectations.  If EVERYONE thinks it's going up, isn't that how we get into run-away bubbles?

Quick!  Someone write a Marketwatch article about how we're on the very precipice of disaster!  It's the only way to save us!

Well, if all these doom and gloom guys finally give up and buy in, we can have the final runup before the market goes on sale with a nice big crash!

:D

Nah, they won't buy in.  The reason they aren't posting any more is that they've locked themselves in their fallout shelters, we'll start hearing from them again when the canned food runs out (halfway up the next bull-run). 

[Clean Shaven]

Anyone know where this goes?

[MasterStache]

Ok, the real top is in today. Disregard all other previous calls of the top. Also disregard this top if market goes higher in the future.

[fattest_foot]

Market is up pretty bigly today.

And yet, I'm still seeing articles like the one today that said, "The S&P 500 has already met its average return for a full year, but don't expect it to stay here."

Which to me means we haven't hit the top. Since everyone says it's not until children start giving you stock tips that the top is really in.

Also, speaking of that article, I find it hilarious how these sound like the random stats you'll find watching sports; "This is the first time in 23 seasons that a player has caught 7 balls for over 67 yards but under 82."

From the article:

When the S&P 500 was up at least 7.5 percent on its 100th trading day of a year, as it was this year, it added to those gains through year-end 20 out of 23 times.

And since 1950, when the S&P 500 has made at least 15 new all-time highs through May, it was far more likely to keep rising through December, and the average further gain over the final seven months was 7.7 percent, far better than the 4.5 percent average for June-December in all years.

[Clean Shaven]

Watch out!  Bad times ahead!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/equity-allocation-indicator-flashes-bear-market-warning-2017-06-16

[Tyson]

Stop reading the media.  Stop watching the news.  What good can possibly come of it?

[steveo]

Stop reading the media.  Stop watching the news.  What good can possibly come of it?

It's just not worth it is it. You just have a plan and let whatever is going to happen happen.

[Retire-Canada]

Stop reading the media.  Stop watching the news.  What good can possibly come of it?

I don't read financial media or follow financial news. I do read these forums and it seems people love to post click-bait a lot. I ignore it as much as I can, but I do occasionally miss judge things and end up on a click-bait site feeling like I am getting stupider by the minute. ;)

[aspiringnomad]

I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

[sol]

I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

[MasterStache]

I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Exactly! Wait what?

[TomTX]

I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

It's a scam as old as investing history. 50 years ago, it was letters being sent out.

Start Edvard Joons Investing Company.

Print up two batches of letters. Half say the market (or a single stock) is going UP. Half say it's going DOWN.

Mail letters out to your mailing list.

After the market moves, set away the half of the mailing list you sent bad predictions.

Repeat with the half you sent a correct prediction.

After  a couple of iterations, get the suckers who believe you are right all the time to pay you (Maybe for your newsletter. Maybe signing up for you as their EJ broker, whatever) - now you're on easy street.

Now get the remaining mailing list you sent "bad" or "mixed" answers, add any new ones you have, rename yourself Mark Antony Investing Company and start the scam over again.

In the modern age, you just create various identities on various sites and take opposing views. Much cheaper.

[markbike528CBX]

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Wow Sol, I almost bit on that one, well done ! 

[JAYSLOL]

I don't really care to hear from thorstache, but from the posters that were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he used some new (to those posters, anyway) jargon. He could have lucked out and been correct with his arbitrary call, but instead he was risibly wrong. I hope this is a good wake up call not to believe any bullshit artist spinning new theories about the stock market, even if s/he believes their own bullshit.

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Makes total sense, what else could cause all these dead cats to bounce?

[wenchsenior]

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Wow Sol, I almost bit on that one, well done !

Awesome!   I'm starting to think someone could go to Yahoo's financial page, pluck all the sexy words out of each article, create a random word-combo generator, run it, and then post the results all over the internet and be called a genius by a bunch of investing idiots.  Honestly, people like thorstache are half the reason I click on the this section of the forum.

[Tyson]

Posted this earlier, but posing again because it is so awesome:

https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

The latest random advice? 

The smart trader nowadays will always diversify high-yield liability structures.

[steveo]

But the jargon was so convincing!

For anyone who's thinking of calling the top this week, consider whether or not that's even possible while so many subprime GSEs in counterparty sectors are so obviously over-diversified into hedged high-yield bonds.  As long as you don't over-leverage high-maturity currencies in covered credit-linked long positions, you can always collateralize low-IRR credit exposures in revolving sectors.  How could the market possibly top out now?  While capital adequacy requirements are so well insulated?  Don't be ridiculous.

Wow Sol, I almost bit on that one, well done !

I was close but I didn't bite. It is so similar though to the stuff that keeps coming up about how the big crash is coming.

[DavidAnnArbor]

Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

[TomTX]

Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

That would be a great opportunity to practice your Stoicism!  ;)

[Padonak]

Top was in on Monday. You missed it, suckas! Sell! Sell! Sell!

[solon]

Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

Latest post - another recession is coming: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/06/20/next-recession/

[Retire-Canada]

Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

Latest post - another recession is coming: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/06/20/next-recession/

Another recession is still coming. Just like it was back in 2013 when he first made that point and just like it will be in 2020 if the market continues to go up.

[dividendman]

Maybe Mr. Money Mustache is Thorstache, warning us, a recession is coming, any day now.

Latest post - another recession is coming: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/06/20/next-recession/

Another recession is still coming. Just like it was back in 2013 when he first made that point and just like it will be in 2020 if the market continues to go up.

Let's also not forget that markets can still go up even if a recession comes.

[Retire-Canada]

[aspiringnomad]

The Dead Horse Spiral is probably a more reliable indicator than a Dead Cat Bounce.

[thorstach]

Top is in after false breakout

[MrDelane]

[dividendman]

thorstach is back!!! the top must really be in!!

[MrDelane]

Thorstach's greatest hits:

“Top is in” April 11, 2017 - (S&P 2,353.78)

“Double top is in” May 11, 2017 (S&P 2,394.44)

“Top is in” June 27th, 2017 ( S&P 2,419.38)

[Retire-Canada]

Thorstach's greatest hits:

“Top is in” April 11, 2017 - (S&P 2,353.78)

“Double top is in” May 11, 2017 (S&P 2,394.44)

“Top is in” June 27th, 2017 ( S&P 2,419.38)

Just keep predicting the top Thorstach. Sooner or later you'll be "right". :)

[DavidAnnArbor]

Thank you Thorstach

[dividendman]

Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

[sol]

Looks like we might have another false breakout today.

Every time thorstach calls the top, I make thousands of dollars in the stock market the following day by doing nothing.

Call it again, thorstach!

[UnleashHell]

the bounciest dead cat ever.

[flyersman]

I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic

[markbike528CBX]

I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic

Red and green are the new noise (beta for jargon speech).   

Is there a "incipient sneeze" pattern in the jargon?  Aaaaaaah,.....Aaaaah.... Choo!, or is that just the double top?

[flyersman]

I dont get this market at all. S&P up down 20 points, up 21 points next day, down 10 points this morning. So erratic

Red and green are the new noise (beta for jargon speech).   

Is there a "incipient sneeze" pattern in the jargon?  Aaaaaaah,.....Aaaaah.... Choo!, or is that just the double top?

Now back down 18 so Down 20, Up 20, down 18. Im guessing tomorrow will be flat or up 20