Top is in

[caracarn]

Oh wow.  Yes, I'm moving a few thousand into VTSAX that has accumulated over the last few months that I am now comfortable will not be needed for anything but savings.  Figured I'd be buying in at early January 2018 values, but now I see that was a pipe dream.  Still got a 50% discount versus a full one from the one day drop.

[BTDretire]

Time to fess up, market timers.  Who has sold stocks this week in response to the market drop?

Me, me, I have my hand up!
 I sold 8.3% on 2-1 or 2-2, I'm on the an open wifi so can't look, and I also moved a little money into some REIT preferreds. But, I responded to someone in another thread (maybe you) that I'm almost 63 and was 83% in stocks. I've had a beautiful flight since 2009 and stayed with the higher AA a long ways. I'm 40x expenses so this hasn't really hurt me, and had thoughts about just stay with a high AA for my kids inheritance, most likely we could weather any storm. But, when SHTF, I didn't.

EDIT: Everything just now changed , my daughter called me,
she got accepted to a Dental College. Yahoo, yippee :-)
But, that is going to cost about $70,000 a year out of my retirement fund.
We earn about $70,000, going to have to figure where to find
extra cash flow of $40k to $50k extra a year.
 It's always something. :-)
 

[Wintergreen78]

This is very serious news, and this thread has completely ignored it. The roadster top will be in about ten minutes from now. You can watch it live here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=99llRhH71vA&feature=youtu.be

[Mississippi Mudstache]

This is very serious news, and this thread has completely ignored it. The roadster top will be in about ten minutes from now. You can watch it live here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=99llRhH71vA&feature=youtu.be

I'm watching as well! The top (of the rocket) is about to go through the stratosphere! Or rain down in a million bits. Either way, should be a good show.

[aboatguy]

Bottom is in! 

[dragoncar]

There's a pretty good argument that the market is indeed a zero sum game pitting retirees against savers:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/05/17/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-14-sequence-of-return-risk/

Because the sequence of returns impact is flipped -- i.e., negative returns that are very bad early in retirement are very good early in the accumulation phase.

So I wouldn't take the cheerleading for savers for a market downturn personally. It's the nature of the beast, and in any case, the 4% Rule was designed to cover you for this eventuality. If you're spooked, drop to 3% and there's a near guarantee you'll be fine.  Might mean tightening the belt a little bit (unless you did one of the "lean FIRE" deals) or finding some part-time work. The labor market hasn't been better for workers in 20+ years.

Damn, that guy has really good analysis and a page for everything.  Keep meaning to real more of his stuff, but I’m like really busy not working right now

His chart is comparing various paths with equal total returns (10%, -15/42, 42/-15).  But we are talking about hopes, wishes, and other things of fantastical nature.

So I still think that, if you are going to hope for an outcome, it should be something like +15/+45.  Wouldn’t it be nice for everyone if we got such returns and the economic fundamentals to make it stick?

Why waste your time hoping for a downturn?  It just doesn’t make sense to me when there are win/win scenarios out there

[2Birds1Stone]

I hope we see another 10% decline before any sort of end to this correction. Still have lots of accumulation ahead of us.

I gotta say I’m tired of this sentiment.  I understand why people say this, but surely you realize that there are a lot of us here who are actually retired and will be hurt by a downturn.  For us it’s not a buying opportunity, so maybe limit your enthusiasm? 

dont fucking dance

Sorry, I understand that not everyone is still accumulating, but the straight shot up over the past year has many people giddy and irrationally optimistic on future returns.

Pullbacks, corrections, etc are healthy once in a while. Is you AA in line with your risk tolerance? Surely you haven't FIRE'd with an AA that is too aggressive and therefore will make you queasy during a pullback such as 2008?

I know the first time I experienced a correction it was gut wrenching, I adjusted my AA accordingly. 

[Alex239]

Time to fess up, market timers.  Who has sold stocks this week in response to the market drop?

I mean besides thorstache, who presumably went 100% cash last April when he called the top the first time.

I bough and sold /ES futures and made money, surpassing my daily target Friday, Monday and Today(Tues). Aint nobody got time for long term holding in this chaos. I'm just picking up hundred dollar bills are replanting my succulents since I was done trading by 10MST today!

[Wintergreen78]

I made delicious pancakes for breakfast today, a car flew into space and the S&P had the best day in over a year! These things were definitely all related.

Everyone who sold missed the little known Pancake/Space Oddity technical indicator and missed out on today’s gains. I think the bottom is in and we are back on our way to a new top.

[Much Fishing to Do]

Crap.  I thought the bottom was in so made my vanguard solo 401k quarter contribution this morning...but it wont take effect until end of day which is probably a new top and not the bottom...this is young man's game... ;-)

[Bicycle_B]

I made delicious pancakes for breakfast today, a car flew into space and the S&P had the best day in over a year! These things were definitely all related.

Everyone who sold missed the little known Pancake/Space Oddity technical indicator and missed out on today’s gains. I think the bottom is in and we are back on our way to a new top.

Thanks, Wintergreen.  This information about the space-and-pancakes top means a lot to me.    :)

As usual, I didn't get around to rebalancing this week.  Or last week.  Or any time in months.  So, no selling yet. 

I should put more energy into the grueling task of pushing a few buttons to rebalance my portfolio once every whole year, probably.  But I prefer reading this thread.  On to the space-and-pancakes top!!

[nereo]

I made delicious pancakes for breakfast today, a car flew into space and the S&P had the best day in over a year! These things were definitely all related.

Anyone else notice that today's market rally occurred almost simultaneously with the liftoff of a Tesla towards Mars?
Coincidence??
Mars is the new top.

[dragoncar]

Finally the flying cars we’ve been promised for decades!  Now we need to bioengineer sentient bacon that can climb itself into my miuth

[Wintergreen78]

Finally the flying cars we’ve been promised for decades!  Now we need to bioengineer sentient bacon that can climb itself into my miuth

No, the bacon trade was last week. It got too crowded and now you can’t generate alpha with it anymore. You have to stay nimble to keep in front of the trend.

[retireatbirth]

Could be an opportunity to harvest some losses in your taxable and shift funds around if things aren't optimized for you. I'll probably shift some of my total market fund out of taxable if we get to correction territory.

[secondcor521]

I could be completely wrong here, but aren't there 2 totally different "40 year windows"?  The first one is you are 25 and plan to retire at 65 so you have 40 years of saving (and not using) ahead of you.  This I often see starting off with a 90/10 allocation.  But if you are actually retired and now looking at doing 40 years of consumption, with no significant new investment, that same 90/10 seems quite a bit more aggressive.   A traditionally-aged retiree should benefit from cheaper healthcare as they will qualify for medicare.  Their home should be paid off.  Shouldn't have a bunch of kids in daycare or college.  Everything I've read suggests the change in AA at retirement age isn't to handle increased costs it's to deal with no additional income and greatly reduced ability to absorb massive losses in your stache.

This is in no way directed at you, but some of the other posters on here claiming to be retired seem like they are more accurately just on sabbatical provided the markets stay strong.  Hell, I was ready to retire this year.  All I needed was bitcoin to keep doing 10% a day, but alas, I'm back in the workforce now lol.

I'm not sure how to answer your first question.  My plan officially is to review my plan every year, so now I am looking at a 40 year horizon.  Next year I suppose I could plan on a 39 year horizon, but the math doesn't really change that much.
 In 10 years or so I might shift that to a 30 year horizon, depending on my health.  As stated before, for a 40 year horizon, historically the most survivable sweet spot is around 90/10.

You are correct that a 90/10 after FIRE feels more aggressive than a 90/10 during accumulation.  FWIW, I was 100% stocks from 1986 through 2016.

The last sentence of your first paragraph sounds like the traditional advice, which I don't follow.

As far as the stability of people's retirements...well, everyone lays their bets and takes their chances.  I feel very comfortable with mine.  I also respect people who make different decisions because I assume they have different goals, risk profiles, personalities, plans, etc.

[dragoncar]

Finally the flying cars we’ve been promised for decades!  Now we need to bioengineer sentient bacon that can climb itself into my miuth

No, the bacon trade was last week. It got too crowded and now you can’t generate alpha with it anymore. You have to stay nimble to keep in front of the trend.

I know it’s a joke around here, but I don’t do that trend following BS.  My love for bacon is eternal and I will continue to hodl even if it’s not a hot meme anymore

[Travis]

"We think this is an interruption [of the bull market] rather than the start of a bear market," said Craig Callahan, the founder of ICON Advisers. "We didn't see any of the typical conditions you get for a top."

-some dude on CNBC

[JAYSLOL]

"We think this is an interruption [of the bull market] rather than the start of a bear market," said Craig Callahan, the founder of ICON Advisers. "We didn't see any of the typical conditions you get for a top."

-some dude on CNBC

Wait, is this not the "mother of all tops"?  I heard from a reliable source that it is. 

[aspiringnomad]

"We think this is an interruption [of the bull market] rather than the start of a bear market," said Craig Callahan, the founder of ICON Advisers. "We didn't see any of the typical conditions you get for a top."

-some dude on CNBC

Wait, is this not the "mother of all tops"?  I heard from a reliable source that it is.

To be fair, I'd say thorstach is just as reliable as CNBC dude. Both reliably present guesswork as science.

[facepalm]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

[sol]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

You think that little warble tested your risk tolerance? 

[dragoncar]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

[toganet]

I was pleasantly surprised to hear a commentator on NPR Monday morning give sound advice about what to do with your retirement portfolio in that situation: Have an investment strategy that reflects your level of comfort with risk, and stick with.  Don't try to time the market.  Invest in low-cost, broad index funds.  Invest over the long term. 

I guess they missed the message that the top was in?

[MrGreen]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

You think that little warble tested your risk tolerance?

I wouldn't consider my risk tolerance tested on anything less than a 20% loss in two weeks. That's similar to what happened in 2008 and if you can't tolerate the worst then the asset allocation needs to change!

[nereo]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

You think that little warble tested your risk tolerance?

I wouldn't consider my risk tolerance tested on anything less than a 20% loss in two weeks. That's similar to what happened in 2008 and if you can't tolerate the worst then the asset allocation needs to change!

Agreeing in general, but I'd argue what needs to change isn't so much asset allocation as your entire mentality towards investing.
If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

[OurTown]

Bottom was in.  I missed it.

[boarder42]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

You think that little warble tested your risk tolerance?

I wouldn't consider my risk tolerance tested on anything less than a 20% loss in two weeks. That's similar to what happened in 2008 and if you can't tolerate the worst then the asset allocation needs to change!

Agreeing in general, but I'd argue what needs to change isn't so much asset allocation as your entire mentality towards investing.
If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

I find it as an Excellent source of daily entertainment. It doesn't effect my investment mindset at all. But I love to check it daily. Though when it's not hitting all time highs I do check less bc it's less fun to see money go down vs up.

[nereo]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

You think that little warble tested your risk tolerance?

I wouldn't consider my risk tolerance tested on anything less than a 20% loss in two weeks. That's similar to what happened in 2008 and if you can't tolerate the worst then the asset allocation needs to change!

Agreeing in general, but I'd argue what needs to change isn't so much asset allocation as your entire mentality towards investing.
If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

I find it as an Excellent source of daily entertainment. It doesn't effect my investment mindset at all. But I love to check it daily. Though when it's not hitting all time highs I do check less bc it's less fun to see money go down vs up.

Sure.  Which is why I included that last statement "So if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.
People who know they are disciplined enough to 'stay the course' can do what they like (though there's still no point in checking balances daily, other than S&G). but for most, the more they pay attention to the market the more emotional they become about investing, and the more likely they are to do dumb things. That's behavioral ecology at work...

[Kalergie]

If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

@nereo:
Just wanted to let you know I added this excellent advise to my IPS. Thank you for this!

[nereo]

If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

@nereo:
Just wanted to let you know I added this excellent advise to my IPS. Thank you for this!

yay!  I helped somebody!

[DarkandStormy]

The mother of all tops is in.

Please post more.

[toganet]

If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

@nereo:
Just wanted to let you know I added this excellent advise to my IPS. Thank you for this!

For me, part of figuring out what my personal risk tolerance actually is required me to pay close attention for a while.  Counterintuitively, I would have been less risk tolerant (and missing out on gains over time) if I hadn't ridden the rollercoaster a couple times myself. YMMV

[aboatguy]

Bottom was in.  I missed it.

You may have missed this bottom, however, I am certain there will be another bottom sometime in the future.

Mike

[aboatguy]

The Bacon Bottom Pizza is in!

[Mississippi Mudstache]

If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

@nereo:
Just wanted to let you know I added this excellent advise to my IPS. Thank you for this!

For me, part of figuring out what my personal risk tolerance actually is required me to pay close attention for a while.  Counterintuitively, I would have been less risk tolerant (and missing out on gains over time) if I hadn't ridden the rollercoaster a couple times myself. YMMV

I sort of agree with this. Early on (ca. 2011), I was checking the markets constantly, and I did a bit of active trading - value investing, nothing fancy - and I always found my returns lagging the total market indices, with greater volatility to boot. After losing about $600 bucks in a day, which seemed like a lot at the time, I decided that index investing was less risky. I settled on an asset allocation and quit worrying. The daily numbers seem less salient as time goes by.

[the_fixer]

To all of my friends texting and calling freaking out between Friday and yesterday.
------------

What good is the warmth of summer, without the cold of winter to give it sweetness

-------------



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[DS]

To all of my friends texting and calling freaking out between Friday and yesterday.
------------

What good is the warmth of summer, without the cold of winter to give it sweetness

-------------

------------------------

What good is the top, without selling off all of your assets and retreating to a remote cave

------------------------

[Kalergie]

If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

@nereo:
Just wanted to let you know I added this excellent advise to my IPS. Thank you for this!

yay!  I helped somebody!

Indeed you did.   Although you confirmed what I already knew, it's nice to see it in writing! :D

[PhilB]

If you are focused on the stock ticker, checking your balance on a daily basis and lapping up all the media about the latest market movements (up or down).... you are paying way too much attention. Not only is that not helpful, it's downright harmful. It's obsessive. Anytime you give anything that much attention it becomes the most important thing ever ... even when its not.

If your investment timeline is measured in decades there's no damn point in checking in any more frequently than every few months (even that's probably too frequently for some).

So: if the market fluctuations are giving you jitters - it's time to tune out.  Go on a low-information diet. Set your contributions and forget everything else.

@nereo:
Just wanted to let you know I added this excellent advise to my IPS. Thank you for this!

For me, part of figuring out what my personal risk tolerance actually is required me to pay close attention for a while.  Counterintuitively, I would have been less risk tolerant (and missing out on gains over time) if I hadn't ridden the rollercoaster a couple times myself. YMMV

I sort of agree with this. Early on (ca. 2011), I was checking the markets constantly, and I did a bit of active trading - value investing, nothing fancy - and I always found my returns lagging the total market indices, with greater volatility to boot. After losing about $600 bucks in a day, which seemed like a lot at the time, I decided that index investing was less risky. I settled on an asset allocation and quit worrying. The daily numbers seem less salient as time goes by.

It depends on your personality type, but I'm with toganet on this one.  A few years of plotting my actuals against budget once a week and eg watching actuals dive below budget post the Brexit vote, climb up, dive back etc has really helped me feel comfortable with volatility.

[GuitarStv]

Bottom is in!

Came here to post this.

If I learned anything this week, it is that I am far less risk averse than I thought. Will be trimming back bondes a bit at some point.

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

Are you hoping for extended top or bottom positions from your brunette?

[sherr]

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

Are you hoping for extended top or bottom positions from your brunette?

Not calling you guys out in particular, but I wish you wouldn't do this. I think it takes a fun thread and makes it... not as fun. For a significant portion of the population.

[Roothy]

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

Are you hoping for extended top or bottom positions from your brunette?

Not calling you guys out in particular, but I wish you wouldn't do this. I think it takes a fun thread and makes it... not as fun. For a significant portion of the population.

Agree.

[MrDelane]

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

Are you hoping for extended top or bottom positions from your brunette?

Not calling you guys out in particular, but I wish you wouldn't do this. I think it takes a fun thread and makes it... not as fun. For a significant portion of the population.

Good point.
It's unfortunately so easy for many of us to see things like that as simply unfunny jokes (myself included).

Thank you for the reminder.











(Does this mean the bottom of this thread is in?)

[anisotropy]

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

Are you hoping for extended top or bottom positions from your brunette?

Not calling you guys out in particular, but I wish you wouldn't do this. I think it takes a fun thread and makes it... not as fun. For a significant portion of the population.

I thought this behavior was completely ok for people with F!@# You Money? Especially now the world lives under the rule of the Eternal GodEmperor?

[sol]

I’m also trimming my blonde position back.  Diversifying into brunettess

Are you hoping for extended top or bottom positions from your brunette?

Not calling you guys out in particular, but I wish you wouldn't do this. I think it takes a fun thread and makes it... not as fun. For a significant portion of the population.

Agree.

Can we please make your objections a little more specific?  What is it about GSV's post that is problematic?

Calling it "not as fun" is not as helpful as it could be.  This thread has ranged widely over a variety of silly topics, and I'm not sure this one is any different.

My fear is that your only objection is that you found the commentary sexist, despite no mention of gender or orientation.  If that's the case, then I think the problem might reside in the offended party.  Did you maybe make some unwarranted assumptions about the intent behind the comment?  Would your level of discomfort with it change if you learned that GSV was a gay Asian man ?  Do you just object to the insinuation that some people find other people attractive, even without any gender specific context, or do you object to what I think you have perceived as a disparaging comment about women specifically?

I recently watched a black comedian tell a story about walking with a group of his white friends, in Africa, when a stranger shouted "hey monkey!" at them, and one of his friends immediately turned to him and apologized.  Who's the racist now?  Why did you assume that "monkey" was aimed at the one black guy in the group?  Did you make an assumption about perceived discriminatory intent that reveals more about your own character than the person you're calling out?

[Cache_Stash]

To all of my friends texting and calling freaking out between Friday and yesterday.
------------

What good is the warmth of summer, without the cold of winter to give it sweetness

-------------



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

For there is no joy without perspective

[JAYSLOL]

(Does this mean the bottom of this thread is in?)

No, just an inappropriate cat bounce

[dragoncar]

Poor thorstach hasn’t been offended at anything we’ve said yet because he’s actually a ginger

But just to be super clear, I’m only sexually attracted to cars

[Lews Therin]

But just to be super clear, I’m only sexually attracted to cars

Any specific colored car? Or