Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2302910 times)

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8950 on: February 04, 2022, 05:39:44 PM »
MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

CRUSHED

To be fair, the VIX is above 15.

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8951 on: February 05, 2022, 12:53:46 PM »
If one keeps their job, crashes are great as you can buy cheap stocks, but millions get laid off when the easy stock money goes away.  If one is sure they won't get canned, then cheer for corrections/crashes.  Everyone else should be cautious when these appear.  I also went back to school after stock plummet caused job losses, but completely changed industries.       

But many people believe that the stock market is a forward looking indicator of future profits which may lead the real economy by six months. In that sense it's just the fuel gauge. It isn't the fuel gauge's fault when you run out of gas. I'm not going to get angry at the fuel gauge, and I'm not going to get afraid either. I choose to look on the bright side. Also, every last qualified engineer that I knew was able to find a job in the .com crash. It was all the other unqualified people I knew (like me) who I knew to really struggled.

I can only share my opinion, but this feels lie the precursor to a crash and the Fed is out of bullets.  Control burns are also good for the forest, but not when it's 100F, windy, dry in the middle of the summer.         

Well, that depends on what they prioritize. If they choose to prioritize the stock market they can always run another round of QE and buy some more junk bonds.

I hope the include the stock market, but maximum employment and price stability is more difficult than the ECBs price stability mandate (see what inflation did to Germany and Europe that many speculate caused WWII).  Although Yellen caused the wealth inequality, she has now seen the light and wants to end this after being almost solely responsible for the gap.     

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8952 on: February 05, 2022, 12:55:10 PM »
- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

Meh, there was a point in Feb/Mar 2020 when my portfolio balance was actually lower than my total contributions. I wouldn't say that I was cheering for a crash, but a crash wouldn't have upset me. And it still wouldn't upset me today. I've got 8+ years of investing left to do.

As long as one keeps their job, crashes are relatively helpful for FIRE plans.  But this is entirely conditional on keeping one's job which is unknown for most people.   

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8953 on: February 05, 2022, 12:57:21 PM »
Probably 40/60 and staying here for a while.  Not buying the dip.  I don't make point estimates, but retesting the March 2020 lows is not out of the picture given the Fed is taking away the punchbowl that created the returns since then,

Topping off the punchbowl is in!
If that's JP spiling the punchbowl, then the top might not be in ;)
Nah, Jerome has Everclear.  Top is not in, yet!  (Edit to add - which ironically means that the top is in until the Fed reverses course, just FYI)

Yep.  All based on Fed action.  Depends on if JP does what he says or changes course. 

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8954 on: February 05, 2022, 12:58:21 PM »
Fed has two mandates, maximum employment and USD stability, worrying about the stock market would make the already challenging job impossible.   
Inflation, not USD stability.

And doing a 180 degree turn in 2018 was pretty much because the stock marked tanked 20% or thereabouts. The Fed is really worried about the market.

Maybe top worry is about to set in at the Fed?

It's stability as the Fed can also prevent deflation (see March 2020 for example). 

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8955 on: February 05, 2022, 01:00:21 PM »
MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

Posted after their beat.  If I had to estimate, sometime in the next 6 months AMZN will guide lower due to slower AWS growth. 

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8956 on: February 05, 2022, 01:01:52 PM »
MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

Again, posted after their beat. 

CRUSHED

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8957 on: February 06, 2022, 02:05:34 PM »
My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

Malossi792

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8958 on: February 06, 2022, 04:29:33 PM »
My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...
Do share, please.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8959 on: February 07, 2022, 12:40:59 AM »
My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...
Do share, please.

During coitus, itís common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting ďtop is in!Ē

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8960 on: February 07, 2022, 07:18:36 AM »
My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...
Do share, please.

During coitus, itís common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting ďtop is in!Ē

In my bedroom, tops are never in, but instead off.

2KidFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8961 on: February 07, 2022, 08:41:26 AM »
My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...
Do share, please.

During coitus, itís common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting ďtop is in!Ē

Legit laughed out loud at this one.  Bravo!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8962 on: February 07, 2022, 10:39:19 AM »
My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...
Do share, please.

During coitus, itís common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting ďtop is in!Ē

You definitely don't want to hear "bottom is in!" afterwards...

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8963 on: February 07, 2022, 11:13:28 AM »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8964 on: February 09, 2022, 01:20:08 PM »
My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8965 on: February 09, 2022, 01:26:37 PM »
My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

VIX is 5+9 in Roman so obviously if you can buy 15 at 14 that's a deal. Or wait, are you buying 14 at 15? That's obviously a sell.

Need Bloomberg and thorstach to chime in.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8966 on: February 09, 2022, 01:40:26 PM »
My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks
"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8967 on: February 09, 2022, 02:37:12 PM »
My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks
"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

Thank you for the chuckles I never get when I don't click links. That's amazing.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8968 on: February 09, 2022, 04:16:28 PM »
My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks
"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

Thank you for the chuckles I never get when I don't click links. That's amazing.

60 percent of the time, it works every time.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8969 on: February 14, 2022, 03:08:06 AM »
Uncle Biden wants to get onto the blower to the PPT pretty darn sharpish, because we could be taking out the January lows in a real hurry. Tech continuing to get smashed from pillar to post is not a good sign for the health of the bull market.

ZaraThustra

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8970 on: February 14, 2022, 07:18:47 AM »
My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks
"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

Thank you for the chuckles I never get when I don't click links. That's amazing.

60 percent of the time, it works every time.

It's also cranky in the rain, and doesn't "do" Mondays.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8971 on: February 14, 2022, 11:53:54 AM »
The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years


EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8972 on: February 14, 2022, 12:15:21 PM »
The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years



So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8973 on: February 14, 2022, 12:22:06 PM »
The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years



So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?
YES, that would be a buy signal because by then the market would have built up a nice cushion so that even in the worst case scenario it would probably only lose 8 years of gains.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8974 on: February 14, 2022, 01:33:05 PM »
The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years



So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?
YES, that would be a buy signal because by then the market would have built up a nice cushion so that even in the worst case scenario it would probably only lose 8 years of gains.

Sorry, I record my dates in hexadecimal, so the stock market is on a 16 year cycle for me. I seek everything in any year that ends in b, then buy it back when the year ends in d.

Iíve got charts and stuff to back up my system.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8975 on: February 14, 2022, 04:24:01 PM »
Sorry, I record my dates in hexadecimal, so the stock market is on a 16 year cycle for me. I seek everything in any year that ends in b, then buy it back when the year ends in d.

Iíve got charts and stuff to back up my system.

Really? I always use octal.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8976 on: February 14, 2022, 06:42:20 PM »
Sorry, I record my dates in hexadecimal, so the stock market is on a 16 year cycle for me. I seek everything in any year that ends in b, then buy it back when the year ends in d.

Iíve got charts and stuff to back up my system.

Really? I always use octal.

Trading every eight years?

You should really be careful with that. Excessive trading has been shown to reduce performance.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8977 on: February 14, 2022, 07:16:36 PM »
The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years

So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?
YES, that would be a buy signal because by then the market would have built up a nice cushion so that even in the worst case scenario it would probably only lose 8 years of gains.

If I lose two years worth of gains, the S&P was at 3300 headed to 2300...  Losing eight years worth of gains would be like when the crude oil price went negative - I'd have to pay someone to hold on the my index funds for me - S&P being a positive number is in!

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8978 on: February 15, 2022, 01:12:50 PM »
All about the FED; QE/QT and rates.  QE ends, QT starts and rates increase, top is 100% in.  If QE continues and rates stay low, top is not in.  JP said the punch bowl is being drained and if he wants to keep some credibility, it will probably happen soon.  If not, party on until the shelves are bare, but everyone is a paper billionaire.   

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8979 on: February 15, 2022, 01:16:46 PM »
If not, party on until the shelves are bare, but everyone is a paper billionaire.   

I'm going to make a paper hat out of hundred dollar bills.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8980 on: February 17, 2022, 11:58:07 AM »
The 3 most important stocks for the market are AAPL, MSFT & AMZN.

As the unprofitable and questionable dross amongst the wider market crumbles, investors "flee" into these bellweather stocks, which continue to hold up the indexes.  If and when these pillars are taken out then the market as a whole is in big trouble.

Key levels are:

AAPL: $155
Apple is the strongest of the 3, still in a well defined uptrend, and upward sloping 233dma and 55dma

MSFT: $275
Microsoft is in the middle, it is flirting with its 233dma, while the 55dma is now downward sloping

AMZN: $2700
Amazon is the weakest, having spend last year going sideways. The 55dma has already crossed below the 233dma and both are now being pulled down by the price action. This looks likely to be the first stock to fall below key support and trigger the next leg down.



Phenix

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8981 on: February 17, 2022, 12:25:25 PM »
Please save all analysis for thorstach.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2022, 06:44:12 AM by Phenix »

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8982 on: February 17, 2022, 01:26:04 PM »

AMZN: $2700
Amazon is the weakest, having spend last year going sideways. The 55dma has already crossed below the 233dma and both are now being pulled down by the price action. This looks likely to be the first stock to fall below key support and trigger the next leg down.

Fear is rampant. Top is clearly in.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8983 on: February 17, 2022, 01:28:25 PM »
Please save all analysis for thorstache.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

I reserve my hyperbole for when people around me are running for the fire escape.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8984 on: February 17, 2022, 01:31:09 PM »
Please save all analysis for thorstache.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

I reserve my hyperbole for when people around me are running for the fire escape.

WHAT IF THERE ARE NO FIRE ESCAPES?????!!!!!!!!!


GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8985 on: February 17, 2022, 02:12:50 PM »
Please save all analysis for thorstache.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

I reserve my hyperbole for when people around me are running for the fire escape.

WHAT IF THERE ARE NO FIRE ESCAPES?????!!!!!!!!!



If there's a window and your foot, there's a fire escape.

DaTrill

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8986 on: February 17, 2022, 02:32:20 PM »
One can sell, this is the beauty of equity investing.  Still hopeful for a rally and return to the top but prepared otherwise.  Retail or Algos may really cause issues in the market.  Low volume on big selloffs is usually associated with bigger selloffs.  Retail still buying and no idea what Algos are doing.     

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8987 on: February 22, 2022, 02:25:51 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8988 on: February 22, 2022, 02:32:45 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction.

Yup. Too bad that I won't buy more until 10 days from now.

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8989 on: February 22, 2022, 02:49:22 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction.

Yup. Too bad that I won't buy more until 10 days from now.
Total bloodbath.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8990 on: February 22, 2022, 05:30:59 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8991 on: February 22, 2022, 05:59:14 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?
Should make it easier to catch, no?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8992 on: February 22, 2022, 06:56:24 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?
Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

secondcor521

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8993 on: February 22, 2022, 07:08:58 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?
Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Well that's catching it in a way, now, isn't it?  Technically speaking.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8994 on: February 22, 2022, 09:25:58 PM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?
Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Well that's catching it in a way, now, isn't it?  Technically speaking.

Sure, technicality Top is in

Glenstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8995 on: February 22, 2022, 10:40:39 PM »
If a lone stock crashes on the the market and nobody yellsn was the top really in?

clifp

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8996 on: February 23, 2022, 12:46:42 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8997 on: February 23, 2022, 01:54:30 AM »
I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌
But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?
Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Especially when wearing wicker shoes

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8998 on: February 23, 2022, 03:32:31 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If this is anything like February/March of 2020, we'll start seeing people that never post start posting about cashing out and how they knew this was going to happen. Some people feel compelled to do something during a correction to feel in control even if it doesn't actually help in the long run. I'm cool with a correction whether we get back to new highs in a month or it stays down for a few more months. I'm going to keep buying like I normally do, enjoy the discount, wait until things recover, then enjoy my larger investment account balances.

Either way, the top is in.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8999 on: February 23, 2022, 03:54:08 AM »
I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If this is anything like February/March of 2020, we'll start seeing people that never post start posting about cashing out and how they knew this was going to happen. Some people feel compelled to do something during a correction to feel in control even if it doesn't actually help in the long run. I'm cool with a correction whether we get back to new highs in a month or it stays down for a few more months. I'm going to keep buying like I normally do, enjoy the discount, wait until things recover, then enjoy my larger investment account balances.

Either way, the top is in.

It's nothing like March 2020, which was a short term reaction ot a coordinated global emergency.  It couldn't be more different, imo.

Current action is more like the sort of patterns that we have seen at major market turning points where there is a genuine topping process played out over a year or more, as the market sells off, rallies, confuses both bulls and bears, before ultimately entering a well defined downtrend.

If you go back and look at the market over 2007, 2000, 1973, 1966.. those tops all play out over that sort of time frame.

My own feeling is that stock market sentiment, while it taken a bit of a dent in recent weeks, is still very high. Most people are still expecting forward returns to be above historical average despite all the evidence pointing towards the opposite.  It takes a few years of lousy performance to unwind that sort of exuberance., not just a couple of months.