Top is in

[aboatguy]

Top for April 6 2020 is in.....

[dreadmoose]

BTC has also dropped sharply along with the markets. I would have thought BTC would be doing pretty well, but I guess if everyone's dead then there's no use for any currency, let alone crypto.
It's up just slightly since this time last year, but still less than 50% from the 2017 peak.

I would have guessed the opposite as well.

BTC biggest selling point as a real use case is as a non-politically motivated currency, with all the stimulus packages coming out I guess it seems better to have Government backed currencies right now. I was picturing it being closer to gold in correlation to markets tanking.

Full disclosure I have a menial stake in BTC, ETH, and LTC out of pure interest (less than .4% of my savings and only even there as I bought it forever ago).

[Lady Stash]

It's a sign that bottom is in and it's time to buy more stock.  More Stock!

Called it!  March 23rd was the bottom (so far).  Off by one day isn't bad.  Please ignore all the other top/bottom calls I have made along the way.  This is the one that counts.  ;-)

The levity on this thread helped me keep to my plan and buy stocks all the way down, even as I was losing $. I moved from 60% stock up to 75% stock(VTSAX/VGTSX) by March 23rd.  It was really hard at the time to give up cash & bonds for falling stocks.  To buy, lose 10% and keep buying, to sell bonds when they were down, but I'm glad now I did since I'm already at a net gain for those investments. Long term, I guess we'll see. 

If the market falls again, I plan to move all the way up to 90% stock.  I'm betting March 23rd was the bottom but it seems like most people are expecting a more significant drop ahead.  I am betting $$ that stocks will be up in the next 10 years though.

[Alternatepriorities]

I am betting $$ that stocks will be up in the next 10 years though.

How can one bet on stocks going up when the top is in?

One must simply accept the sacrifice of little green employees for the top.

[BDWW]

Just an FYI, my pay day was yesterday (Tuesday), and the 401K portion lands on Friday. So by murphy's law local top will be Friday.

You're welcome.

[dougules]

It's a sign that bottom is in and it's time to buy more stock.  More Stock!

Called it!  March 23rd was the bottom (so far).  Off by one day isn't bad.  Please ignore all the other top/bottom calls I have made along the way.  This is the one that counts.  ;-)

The levity on this thread helped me keep to my plan and buy stocks all the way down, even as I was losing $. I moved from 60% stock up to 75% stock(VTSAX/VGTSX) by March 23rd.  It was really hard at the time to give up cash & bonds for falling stocks.  To buy, lose 10% and keep buying, to sell bonds when they were down, but I'm glad now I did since I'm already at a net gain for those investments. Long term, I guess we'll see. 

If the market falls again, I plan to move all the way up to 90% stock.  I'm betting March 23rd was the bottom but it seems like most people are expecting a more significant drop ahead.  I am betting $$ that stocks will be up in the next 10 years though.

Any time silly memes and general childishness can be helpful, you can count on us!

[BicycleB]

It's a sign that bottom is in and it's time to buy more stock.  More Stock!

Called it!  March 23rd was the bottom (so far).  Off by one day isn't bad.  Please ignore all the other top/bottom calls I have made along the way.  This is the one that counts.  ;-)

Very professional attitude, @Lady Stash!

If only the pros with that attitude were here on this thread, they would be so much better off.  :)

[dougules]

Is it just me, or has the market completely forgotten that the top is in?  We need thorstach to remind all the bulls that they are going to drown in the GOAT MOAT. 

[BigMoneyJim]

The dead cat hit a flubber trampoline this time.

[magnet18]

The dead cat hit a flubber trampoline this time.

About what I'm thinking!

Very glad I put in a solid chunk of money on the 23rd, but I'll be (happily) astounded if we don't go freefalling back down at some point.

[BigMoneyJim]

I'll be (happily) astounded if we don't go freefalling back down at some point.

I agree. I have just about talked myself into a little "market timing". I already have a limit order to top off my cash cushion a couple of months's worth at October's levels (which we're rapidly approaching and is when I felt comfortable enough with my stash to retire). I'm currently deciding whether I want another month or two at right-now's prices or just add to my existing limit order target.

And I'll add a few more months at a higher price that I haven't determined yet.

But I'm buying time, not profits. If I'm wrong and this market keeps going up, I'm still fine. If it goes back down as it seems it obviously has to, I'll have a couple or few more months to wait for it to recover.

Wait. Scratch all that. What I'm really sayin' is, TOP IS IN.

[dragoncar]

The dead cat hit a flubber trampoline this time.

About what I'm thinking!

Very glad I put in a solid chunk of money on the 23rd, but I'll be (happily) astounded if we don't go freefalling back down at some point.

I hit the local bottom almost perfectly with some extra cash, pretty much by chance ... for my wife.  For me I missed a nice opportunity to TLH.  At the rate things are going I won’t even have any losses to harvest.  Sad

[Steeze]

Turns out 16 million jobs lost in US = 11% of US working population = only 0.3% of total US incomes

[dividendman]

Turns out 16 million jobs lost in US = 11% of US working population = only 0.3% of total US incomes

Those damn 0.3%ers at it again.

[Tyson]

Turns out 16 million jobs lost in US = 11% of US working population = only 0.3% of total US incomes

Seems like those in the service industry are hit the hardest.

[Wintergreen78]

The dead cat hit a flubber trampoline this time.

About what I'm thinking!

Very glad I put in a solid chunk of money on the 23rd, but I'll be (happily) astounded if we don't go freefalling back down at some point.

I hit the local bottom almost perfectly with some extra cash, pretty much by chance ... for my wife.  For me I missed a nice opportunity to TLH.  At the rate things are going I won’t even have any losses to harvest.  Sad

I know! My next planned date for rebalancing/ transferring funds is july 1. I had thought about doing some fancy tlh plus transferring funds from a 457 to a Roth IRA. But at this rate that may not be an option by July.

[talltexan]

The last recession was caused in large part by the implosion of the housing market, so the housing market being as it was is no surprise. This time we're not looking at a housing-related trigger, so I don't see why housing ought to be affected any more than usual during a recession. I'd be interested to know what that "usual" amount is though if any data exist. I haven't done any research on that yet myself.

Well people are social distancing.  It hasn't been fully internalized by some people, but this is the new norm for awhile.  Once it hits people, no one is going to allow strangers to walk through their house, and buyers aren't going to want to parade through a bunch of different strangers houses either.  Also no one is going to have jobs or money to be buying houses.  I've been brought into the fold somewhat at my current company, and it's pretty fucking grim.  The workers don't know it, but I'm pretty sure close to half of them are losing their jobs in the coming weeks/months no matter how this thing plays out, and I can't imagine this is the only company facing a crunch.  This is going to have long lasting repercussions that affect the economy and every person in it.  Much like the great financial recession there is going to be a domino effect that reaches every aspect of the economy.

I've been relentlessly optimistic about this.  Initially thinking this was no big deal and less of a concern than the flu, and that this entire thing would blow over.  Swine flu, SARS, etc, never affected my life in the slightest.  If it wasn't for media hype I wouldn't even have been aware of those diseases.  I thought this was going to be the same deal.  Much ado about nothing, some people get sick, some people will die, but it would be paltry in comparison to things like the regular flu, car accidents, and people just dying from old age.  And life would move on, we'd all be laughing it up with our stock winnings in 3 months.  I no longer think that's the case.  Shit is getting very real, very fast. 

Being completely unironic: Fear is back.

As of yesterday, the worldwide death count is 7,100. So I'd say that panic has far surpassed the actual danger from the disease.

Thanks to this panic, fear is definitely back.

Median time from infection to death is 24 days. In uncontrolled countries, doubling time of the disease is 2-3 days. That's either 8 or 12 doublings. Death rate is 1% in well controlled situations (ie, enough hospital ventilators) up to 10% where the system has broken down.

So, with death counts - we're basically looking at infections which happened 24 days ago or more (well, remember it's "median"
 time, so half take longer)

Do the math. Take 7100 and double it 8 times. Then double it 12 times.

Fortunately, China, Singapore, SK, HK, etc locked it down early. Europe is late. USA is even later.

So, doubling 7,100 eight times comes out to a little over 1.8 million. If the death count isn't at least 1.8 million in 24 days, can we agree that the widespread panic is overblown?

Or am I misunderstanding the math?

You are misunderstanding it.  You have to double it 12 more times.  US death toll should be around 7.5 billion in a month.  People are literally rising from the grave just to die multiple times. 

(this thread is getting too serious)

It would be awesome to have both re-incarnation and killing powers, and just kill people only to resurrect them just so you can kill them again (until this gets boring).

[magnet18]

This is it

Today is the day

It's all downhill from here fellas

(local) top is in

[ender]

This is it

Today is the day

It's all downhill from here fellas

(local) top is in

confirmed

not 5% growth means relative top was in

[v8rx7guy]

Looking as if we may close back in the late summer 2019 levels (S&P500).

[magnet18]

This is it

Today is the day

It's all downhill from here fellas

(local) top is in

confirmed

not 5% growth means relative top was in

Breaking news, the "veteran Goldman Sachs analyst" who said we were nowhere near the bottom when we were 24 hours from the bottom, SUDDENLY REVERSES POSITION and says we're done crashing

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-suddenly-believes-the-coronavirus-wont-send-the-sp-500-crashing-another-25-154647763.html

ROTFLMAO

Well, he was totally wrong on his first call, so logically this means... Top is in

[BigMoneyJim]

I put in three sell limit orders last week for a broad-market ETF. One at early 2019 levels, one at October 2019 levels, and one at December 2019 levels.

The early 2019 one triggered this morning. I can't decide if I should be more surprised or less if the October one triggers, too. (60-days to expire).

Top is in, right?

Right?

[dougules]

YES.  Top is definitely in.  This is a dead Siberian tiger bounce.  Don't fall for it.  Keep your positions fully in gold and ammo. 

[magnet18]

YES.  Top is definitely in.  This is a dead Siberian tiger bounce.  Don't fall for it.  Keep your positions fully in gold and ammo.

Dead Siberian tiger fell out of orbit onto a small planetoid made entirely of long-poly chain elastomers

[techwiz]

Tiger Top is in!

[Wintergreen78]

Tigers in space top everything.

[SwordGuy]

Tigers in space top everything.

Tiger King Top Is In

[BicycleB]

Tiger Top is in!

Space Tiger is AWESUM!!!!

[Wintergreen78]

Tiger Top is in!

Space Tiger is AWESUM!!!!

I think he would let you rub his belly for three seconds. Then he would bite you.

[dragoncar]

Fun fact: space cats are declawed prior to launch for their own protection.  They also can’t bite you without tasting the cold vacuum of space

[magnet18]

Fun fact: space cats are declawed prior to launch for their own protection.  They also can’t bite you without tasting the cold vacuum of space

Pretty sure he would just kick you, and therefore win the belly rub fight

I also wonder how much mobility his tail has.  If full, that spacesuit is a textile miracle

[Wintergreen78]

In the last month the SP 500 has gone up 25%! We have had amazing market returns! At this rate we will have the greatest top of all time on August 21. SP 500 at 5600. I guarantee it.

[Alternatepriorities]

In the last month the SP 500 has gone up 25%! We have had amazing market returns! At this rate we will have the greatest top of all time on August 21. SP 500 at 5600. I guarantee it.

I notice you didn't specify a year... Very clever prediction.

[Glenstache]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

[BigMoneyJim]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

[Travis]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

50 gallon steel drum manufacturers - the latest hot stock!

[Wintergreen78]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

50 gallon steel drum manufacturers - the latest hot stock!

You are thinking small time. You’ve got to take out a high interest loan to buy a bunch of Baker tanks and fill them with oil. We’ve got at least two threads going now by amateur commodities traders who are going to get rich.

[Travis]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

50 gallon steel drum manufacturers - the latest hot stock!

You are thinking small time. You’ve got to take out a high interest loan to buy a bunch of Baker tanks and fill them with oil. We’ve got at least two threads going now by amateur commodities traders who are going to get rich.

A few months into our war in Iraq, all anybody would talk about is buying big bags of Iraqi currency because "it's only going to go up."  I wonder if there are still people out there who followed through and still have duffel bags full of Dinars and probably didn't know how to offload them?

[SwordGuy]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

I post a lot of persona finance stuff on FB, and a couple of days ago a friend asked me for advice about the oil futures market.

I told him I knew enough to know that I would lose my shirt since I didn't know what I was doing, and that a lot of people who do know what they are doing also lose their shirts in commodities futures markets.    It's betting, not investing, for 99.99999% of folks.   

[DadJokes]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

50 gallon steel drum manufacturers - the latest hot stock!

You are thinking small time. You’ve got to take out a high interest loan to buy a bunch of Baker tanks and fill them with oil. We’ve got at least two threads going now by amateur commodities traders who are going to get rich.

A few months into our war in Iraq, all anybody would talk about is buying big bags of Iraqi currency because "it's only going to go up."  I wonder if there are still people out there who followed through and still have duffel bags full of Dinars and probably didn't know how to offload them?

I'm just waiting for my luxury Iraqi vacation to spend them all. I'm going to live like a king.

I did buy a little Iraqi & Afghani currency when overseas, not as an investment, but because I like collecting various currencies.

[Glenstache]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

I post a lot of persona finance stuff on FB, and a couple of days ago a friend asked me for advice about the oil futures market.

I told him I knew enough to know that I would lose my shirt since I didn't know what I was doing, and that a lot of people who do know what they are doing also lose their shirts in commodities futures markets.    It's betting, not investing, for 99.99999% of folks.

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder : Look, I saw this great opportunity to corner the market in Egyptian cotton. How was I supposed to know there was going to be a glut? I've got a hundred warehouses stacked with the stuff all over the European theater. I can't get rid of a penny's worth. People eat cotton candy, don't they? Well this stuff is better - it's made out of real cotton.

[Steeze]

My friend that works at Exxon said they are building tanks as fast as possible on the scale of millions of barrels - will take weeks to construct, storage capacity 1-2 days. Not even the guys with the deepest pockets and specialized equipment can handle the glut.

At least BP hasn’t started dumping it into the Gulf of Mexico yet.

[achvfi]

Bottom is in people!

We now have cure for COVID-19 proposed by orange man Dr Trump himself. Its injecting disinfectant into human bodies and exposing body insides to powerful UV light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn6LbtgVDMY

[SwordGuy]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

I post a lot of persona finance stuff on FB, and a couple of days ago a friend asked me for advice about the oil futures market.

I told him I knew enough to know that I would lose my shirt since I didn't know what I was doing, and that a lot of people who do know what they are doing also lose their shirts in commodities futures markets.    It's betting, not investing, for 99.99999% of folks.

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder : Look, I saw this great opportunity to corner the market in Egyptian cotton. How was I supposed to know there was going to be a glut? I've got a hundred warehouses stacked with the stuff all over the European theater. I can't get rid of a penny's worth. People eat cotton candy, don't they? Well this stuff is better - it's made out of real cotton.

Milo Minderbinder. 

Brilliant guy.

Total sociopath.   Didn't care who (other than him) died as long as he made a profit.   

[aspiringnomad]

Bottom is in people!

We now have cure for COVID-19 proposed by orange man Dr Florida Man himself. Its injecting disinfectant into human bodies and exposing body insides to powerful UV light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn6LbtgVDMY

"Inject the disinfectant" is the new "drink the koolaid."

[Buffaloski Boris]

Getting paid to take someone's crude top is in!

I just realized what's been missing: Where are the MMM posts inquiring about oil storage and success stories about being paid to receive oil? How did this group miss that opportunity?!?!

50 gallon steel drum manufacturers - the latest hot stock!

You are thinking small time. You’ve got to take out a high interest loan to buy a bunch of Baker tanks and fill them with oil. We’ve got at least two threads going now by amateur commodities traders who are going to get rich.

Wut??

You mean I'm NOT going to become a Texas oil tycoon???

[Buffaloski Boris]

Milo Minderbinder. 

Brilliant guy.

Total sociopath.   Didn't care who (other than him) died as long as he made a profit.

Hmmm.  Kind of like most of our financial cartel. 

My fave character in Catch 22 was the old Italian man. 

[BicycleB]

I missed the old Italian man - needed Google. Thank you for bringing him up.

His philosophy clearly applies to the top. Those who believe the inexorable march of progress will expire in a blaze of hubris. Today's market, so temptingly close to the top, beckons us to folly. Top is in!!!

[Buffaloski Boris]

I missed the old Italian man - needed Google. Thank you for bringing him up.

His philosophy clearly applies to the top. Those who believe the inexorable march of progress will expire in a blaze of hubris. Today's market, so temptingly close to the top, beckons us to folly. Top is in!!!

Joseph Heller top is definitely in!

[Wintergreen78]

I missed the old Italian man - needed Google. Thank you for bringing him up.

His philosophy clearly applies to the top. Those who believe the inexorable march of progress will expire in a blaze of hubris. Today's market, so temptingly close to the top, beckons us to folly. Top is in!!!

Joseph Heller top is definitely in!

Ex-PFC Wintergreen may just censor the top out of boredom.