Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 112911 times)

FLBiker

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #250 on: May 17, 2017, 09:50:06 AM »
This thread is great!  I admit to being fairly ignorant of market timing jargon, but I read a bunch of the sincere posts as jokes.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #251 on: May 17, 2017, 11:47:10 AM »
I like that he only posts when the market is trending in the direction he wants.

So for almost the entirety of the last two months, nothing. But now a 1% drop and it's spam about the impending doom.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #252 on: May 17, 2017, 12:42:47 PM »
I like that he only posts when the market is trending in the direction he wants.

So for almost the entirety of the last two months, nothing. But now a 1% drop and it's spam about the impending doom.

It's 1.5% currently.


thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #253 on: May 17, 2017, 12:52:02 PM »
VIX up 17.65%, fear is in.



Yes! Only a fool wouldn't be worried about VIX right now. I mean look at it. Low is bad right??? ;)


VIX up 36.62%

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #254 on: May 17, 2017, 01:24:46 PM »
Okay, now I know he's here for the lulz.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #255 on: May 17, 2017, 01:37:04 PM »
Okay, now I know he's here for the lulz.

Yes, he's a troll, but a cute and adorable one.  His nonsense posts just make me smile.
Frugalite in training.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #256 on: May 17, 2017, 01:52:02 PM »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #257 on: May 17, 2017, 02:06:33 PM »

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #258 on: May 17, 2017, 02:16:56 PM »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #259 on: May 17, 2017, 02:22:45 PM »
Can I add some more Red Green to this thread?



mountainfamily

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #260 on: May 17, 2017, 02:23:21 PM »
I'm new to this forum and this has indeed been a very entertaining thread. :)

I'm in an interesting position, having been a very strict long investor my whole adult life. I opened my Fidelity account in 2006 and hadn't ever sold a thing. At the end of 2016, however, I harvested some long capital gains because I could do so at a 0% tax rate, and this spring I sold off a large portion of my index funds for a potential home down payment. However, we've been unsuccessful in buying a home in Seattle, the country's hottest housing market. We just got spectacularly defeated in another bidding war and I'm thinking of throwing in the towel, signing a new lease (complete with newly jacked rent), and re-investing.

While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point. Things do seem to be getting more interesting in Washington, but they're always chaotic. On my Fidelity front page this afternoon: "You may know when to buy, but do you know when to sell?"

I've been stressed lately. Thanks for reminding me to keep it light-hearted and take the long view!

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #261 on: May 17, 2017, 02:24:55 PM »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #262 on: May 17, 2017, 02:30:16 PM »
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point.

Not to be too harsh with you, but carefully choosing your re-entry point is exactly the definition of market timing.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #263 on: May 17, 2017, 02:35:33 PM »
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point. Things do seem to be getting more interesting in Washington, but they're always chaotic. On my Fidelity front page this afternoon: "You may know when to buy, but do you know when to sell?"

I've been stressed lately. Thanks for reminding me to keep it light-hearted and take the long view!

It depends - are you going to need to pull the $$ out again within the next year or 2 to try to buy a house again?  If so, I'd park it in bonds till you're ready to do that.  Otherwise, if you've truly given up on the house idea, no reason not to dump it back into the market and let it grow.
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UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #264 on: May 17, 2017, 02:57:39 PM »
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
_____________
JTF 96

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #265 on: May 17, 2017, 03:07:30 PM »
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
That made my day.
This thread hasn't been this funny since page 5.

mountainfamily

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #266 on: May 17, 2017, 03:26:18 PM »
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point.

Not to be too harsh with you, but carefully choosing your re-entry point is exactly the definition of market timing.

haha, no offense taken. I suppose I am trying to time the market, but within the context of a bigger picture, not as a trader.

mountainfamily

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #267 on: May 17, 2017, 03:29:23 PM »
While I don't want to try to "win" or time the market, I'll be watching things carefully to choose my re-entry point. Things do seem to be getting more interesting in Washington, but they're always chaotic. On my Fidelity front page this afternoon: "You may know when to buy, but do you know when to sell?"

I've been stressed lately. Thanks for reminding me to keep it light-hearted and take the long view!

It depends - are you going to need to pull the $$ out again within the next year or 2 to try to buy a house again?  If so, I'd park it in bonds till you're ready to do that.  Otherwise, if you've truly given up on the house idea, no reason not to dump it back into the market and let it grow.

Ugh, I don't know what we are going to do. It's been a bit of a roller coaster. I know we will sit back, try to regain perspective, and wait for some of the house hunting/rent increase/want to start a family emotions to die down before doing anything.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #268 on: May 17, 2017, 07:46:37 PM »
The /VX futures are spiking, market tanking on Trump news.

Hey Thorstach-

The "top" is only a valid call if you specify the timeframe. Is this a short term top, like a month or longer term like a full blown market correction.

I don't think it really matters, I'm just going to keep on doing what I'm doing, but I'm curious if you are willing to make a real call.

Anyone can see the market drop one day and call a top.
"When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" - John Maynard Keynes

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #269 on: May 18, 2017, 06:23:16 AM »
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
That made my day.
This thread hasn't been this funny since page 5.

Posts down.  Humor spiking.  Double top of thread is in.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2017, 06:27:06 AM by JAYSLOL »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #270 on: May 19, 2017, 10:17:06 AM »


VIX down 26%. Peak fear is in and broken. Sanity being restored.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 10:18:47 AM by Retire-Canada »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #271 on: May 19, 2017, 11:15:22 AM »


VIX down 26%. Peak fear is in and broken. Sanity being restored.

Recommend shorting the inverse double dead cat bounce.




MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #272 on: May 19, 2017, 11:19:53 AM »


PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #273 on: May 19, 2017, 11:24:16 AM »


I went through this exact thing in 2008. The market, nor the world is required to behave rationally. It does not owe you that.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #274 on: May 20, 2017, 02:03:38 PM »

I went through this exact thing in 2008. The market, nor the world is required to behave rationally. It does not owe you that.

in my experience the market is usually quite rational on scales longer than two weeks or so. the world (and its people) on the other hand, can be pretty insane for many years.

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #275 on: May 20, 2017, 02:34:05 PM »
Well, rational is a hard thing to talk about. When the market is going up, and you know it is in a bubble (even the Fed chief is giving speeches about how it is in a bubble), it is rational for you personally to stay in because it is still going up! But that doesn't mean that the market as a whole is behaving rationally.

A lot of people saw the .com bubble and others saw the housing bubble. They said so, they didn't keep it a secret. But the market still continued to go up... for a while.

sirdoug007

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #276 on: May 20, 2017, 07:20:08 PM »


Common misconception. The stock market may BE numbers, but it is actually MADE of people.

Charlton Henton found out a few decades ago.


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MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #277 on: May 20, 2017, 07:55:16 PM »
Charlton Henton found out a few decades ago.


« Last Edit: May 20, 2017, 07:57:52 PM by MrDelane »

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #278 on: May 22, 2017, 02:28:49 PM »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #279 on: May 23, 2017, 10:34:05 AM »


What fear?

Stache-O-Lantern

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #280 on: May 24, 2017, 06:16:34 AM »
That's a double-bottom now for the VIX.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #281 on: May 24, 2017, 10:47:45 AM »
So.... close...... 


tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #282 on: May 24, 2017, 11:16:58 AM »
Can we sticky this tread?
Frugalite in training.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #283 on: May 24, 2017, 11:42:18 AM »
OMG!! panic.
The s&p hasn't been this low since page 2.
That made my day.
This thread hasn't been this funny since page 5.

Posts down.  Humor spiking.  Double top of thread is in.


Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #284 on: May 24, 2017, 12:36:26 PM »

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #285 on: May 24, 2017, 02:19:01 PM »
Vix is in freefall, Dow is green, top isn't in yet.

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #286 on: May 24, 2017, 02:31:04 PM »

Mr. Boh

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #287 on: May 24, 2017, 02:32:54 PM »

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #288 on: May 24, 2017, 04:04:22 PM »
Hey, guys! Top is in. Today. I'm calling it. :P
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Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #289 on: May 24, 2017, 06:26:48 PM »
Hey, guys! Top is in. Today. I'm calling it. :P
I'm calling the bottom. April 13th. The S&P will never go below that in our lifetimes if you reinvested dividends.

Cache Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #290 on: May 25, 2017, 07:04:16 AM »
Was yesterday's close the Quintuple top or the Quadruple top?  How many tops does it take to say the market has topped?

Sextuple?
Septuple?
Octuple?
Ninetuple? (hahahahha)

How many licks are there in a tootsie pop?




mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #291 on: May 25, 2017, 07:24:08 AM »
I never made it to the top without biting. Ask Mr. Owl.
Less is more.

runewell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #292 on: May 25, 2017, 09:03:49 AM »
S&P is up 2.8% since this supposed top was called.
Please leave Dicey out of this! Have you not been paying any attention? Trolls are not welcome here!

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #293 on: May 25, 2017, 09:10:42 AM »
S&P is up 2.8% since this supposed top was called.

That just means there's a new top... and it's in!

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #294 on: May 25, 2017, 09:10:55 AM »
The top is getting crushed today.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #295 on: May 25, 2017, 09:42:12 AM »
Well, I guess Thorstach's claim that this was a "double" Top needs to be amended. Are we now at triple top? Quadruple top? I just can't fathom that he was serious about any of this, despite his apparently earnest convictions on "The Top." Either a Troll or a severely cognitively impaired-finance wannabe?

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #296 on: May 25, 2017, 11:12:00 AM »
Thorstach has been notably absent from this thread.

Accordingly, I consulted the Magic Ministry of Financial Futures, and post on his behalf:

"Green SPY on triple top breakout rejection. Support at 2400.  VIX breakout going into long weekend.  So there was only one thing that I could do.  And that was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long."




MasterStache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #297 on: May 25, 2017, 12:20:28 PM »
Thorstach has been notably absent from this thread.

Accordingly, I consulted the Magic Ministry of Financial Futures, and post on his behalf:

"Green SPY on triple top breakout rejection. Support at 2400.  VIX breakout going into long weekend.  So there was only one thing that I could do.  And that was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long."



I don't know why but I laughed my arse off at this. This thread is fantastic.

sirdoug007

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #298 on: May 25, 2017, 02:55:00 PM »
Thorstach has been notably absent from this thread.

Accordingly, I consulted the Magic Ministry of Financial Futures, and post on his behalf:

"Green SPY on triple top breakout rejection. Support at 2400.  VIX breakout going into long weekend.  So there was only one thing that I could do.  And that was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long."



F down 0.91%.  Market unimpressed Jesus is building a  '32 Ford hot rod!  XIV down 1%!  Start praying!

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #299 on: May 26, 2017, 02:09:11 PM »
Gordon Gekko points to the top.  Or something.

« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 02:18:16 PM by Clean Shaven »