Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 709979 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4350 on: March 24, 2019, 07:55:41 AM »
Can we graph the percentage of people saying "go 100% equities", and say the top is in when it gets too high?

The most recent argument for "the top is in" would be on Friday the treasury yield curve inverted.

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4351 on: March 24, 2019, 11:40:52 AM »

And I find nowhere on this great graphic from Vanuguard's annual outlook "look for the top".

^top is in
Excellent point. As insightful as all those little circles are, they are missing the bigger picture here. They are not relevant because top is in.

Can we graph the percentage of people saying "go 100% equities", and say the top is in when it gets too high?

The most recent argument for "the top is in" would be on Friday the treasury yield curve inverted.
I am disappointed by the yield curve crowd. For the last couple years people compared the 2 and 10 year bonds. Then this week they all switched to 3 month and 10 year, because 2 and 10 did not invert. Still waiting on the 30-day/30-year inversion.

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4352 on: March 25, 2019, 02:49:00 PM »
I am disappointed by the yield curve crowd. For the last couple years people compared the 2 and 10 year bonds. Then this week they all switched to 3 month and 10 year, because 2 and 10 did not invert. Still waiting on the 30-day/30-year inversion.

Wait, what? What was the reason for the change, other than "We wanted to create a sign of doom and manipulate the markets"? Cuz otherwise that's some pretty nasty goalpost-moving.

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4353 on: March 25, 2019, 03:39:40 PM »
I am disappointed by the yield curve crowd. For the last couple years people compared the 2 and 10 year bonds. Then this week they all switched to 3 month and 10 year, because 2 and 10 did not invert. Still waiting on the 30-day/30-year inversion.

Wait, what? What was the reason for the change, other than "We wanted to create a sign of doom and manipulate the markets"? Cuz otherwise that's some pretty nasty goalpost-moving.

If I take off my aluminum foil hat I might say that this is yet another example of the liberal press forecasting doom and gloom for the markets.  They have been claiming the sky is falling and the market about to crash since Trump was elected.  Starting with Mr. Krugman and his election night prediction that the market would "never recover" from the disaster of Trump's election.  Every bit of potentially negative news since then has been touted as proof of the predicted crash.  Russiagate was going to crash the market, Foreign policy was going to crash the market, Tariff wars were going to crash the market,  North Korea was going to crash the market, etc. etc. etc.

But then I put my hat back on and everything is fine.  I am protected from those evil right wing mind control rays once again.

/SARC

appleshampooid

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4354 on: March 26, 2019, 06:24:54 AM »

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4355 on: March 26, 2019, 10:24:03 AM »


There are FOUR tops!

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4356 on: March 26, 2019, 11:39:07 AM »

There are FOUR tops!

Are you excited for the new Picard-based Star Trek that's coming out? I am!

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4357 on: March 27, 2019, 11:33:30 AM »
Life is mean, it exists between tops and bottoms.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4358 on: March 27, 2019, 11:51:15 AM »

There are FOUR tops!

Are you excited for the new Picard-based Star Trek that's coming out? I am!

By the end of the thread, I really did see the top

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4359 on: March 28, 2019, 11:30:25 AM »
Quote
Are you excited for the new Picard-based Star Trek that's coming out? I am!

I am more excited to see the latest movie about the Big Top is in!


hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4360 on: March 28, 2019, 03:48:54 PM »
It's a sign!

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4361 on: March 29, 2019, 05:05:54 PM »
There were four tops and they were epic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Tops

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4362 on: April 03, 2019, 03:17:59 PM »
YTD Top is in

FIRE@50

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4363 on: April 04, 2019, 12:11:39 PM »
Last night I was thinking about getting a muffin top. I would have even settled for a full muffin.

afuera

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4364 on: April 04, 2019, 12:48:51 PM »
Last night I was thinking about getting a muffin top. I would have even settled for a full muffin.


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4365 on: April 04, 2019, 03:02:55 PM »
The muffin top has been in for me for years. 

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4366 on: April 04, 2019, 04:13:59 PM »
Muffin top crashes occur without warning...

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4367 on: April 04, 2019, 04:56:01 PM »
Muffin top crashes occur without warning...

ouch

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4368 on: April 05, 2019, 10:49:12 AM »
Muffin top crashes occur without warning...

ouch

Is that real?  If so, it's a classic, well if nobody was hurt.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4369 on: April 12, 2019, 11:52:14 AM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

With the current announcements of the best, most qualified, most serious, most truly brilliant candidates for the Federal Reserve, the top will soon be in!



solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4370 on: April 12, 2019, 11:57:43 AM »
It would be fun to see it close above 2900 again.

Not that that would be the top.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4371 on: April 12, 2019, 01:09:40 PM »
It would be fun to see it close above 2900 again.

Not that that would be the top.

Currently 2903, fingers crossed

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4372 on: April 12, 2019, 02:21:49 PM »
My muffin top could go for a muffin right about now.

Iím so glad to see this thread get a bump. I was afraid that the top wasnít in anymore

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4373 on: April 12, 2019, 02:41:58 PM »
My muffin top could go for a muffin right about now.

Iím so glad to see this thread get a bump. I was afraid that the top wasnít in anymore

Nah, it's still in. The good news is if you didn't flip your shit and just kept buying at regular intervals through last year's dip, you will probably see some nice gains in your account values today.

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4374 on: April 12, 2019, 03:59:53 PM »
My muffin top could go for a muffin right about now.

Iím so glad to see this thread get a bump. I was afraid that the top wasnít in anymore

Nah, it's still in. The good news is if you didn't flip your shit and just kept buying at regular intervals through last year's dip, you will probably see some nice gains in your account values today.
I have two-step authentication set up on all of my financial accounts so itís mostly too much trouble for me to check balances regularly. The good part of that is it makes it easier to bury my head in the sand and not stress about all of the little market wiggles. ďOMG my net worth is down $30k from yesterday!Ē

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4375 on: April 12, 2019, 04:11:19 PM »
Closed at 2907.41 
Are we close to a New Top or to a record drop,  Time will tell....

I'm doing the rational thing, staying the course

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4376 on: April 12, 2019, 04:43:31 PM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI. 

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4377 on: April 12, 2019, 04:56:19 PM »
Iíve carefully analyzed the data and am convinced that the top is in!  I just donít happen to know the timeline.

Ooooh. Awkward.


mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4378 on: April 12, 2019, 05:15:03 PM »
My muffin top could go for a muffin right about now.

Iím so glad to see this thread get a bump. I was afraid that the top wasnít in anymore

Nah, it's still in. The good news is if you didn't flip your shit and just kept buying at regular intervals through last year's dip, you will probably see some nice gains in your account values today.
I have two-step authentication set up on all of my financial accounts so itís mostly too much trouble for me to check balances regularly. The good part of that is it makes it easier to bury my head in the sand and not stress about all of the little market wiggles. ďOMG my net worth is down $30k from yesterday!Ē

I'm not a fan of two factor authentication either. Vanguard finally forced me to start using it last month :(

I do check daily because I like to see how the movements impact my portfolio and net worth values, but I don't buy and sell based on what happened. I buy Every two weeks for my 401k since I don't get a choice, every 2 weeks on for my taxable account and, a I lump sum my Roth on the first trading day of the year.

I'm kind of hoping we don't see a new top this week since my 401k contribution and taxable purchase happen then. Either way, I'll buy whether it's a new top or it drops 20%.

ysette9

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4379 on: April 12, 2019, 08:07:17 PM »
I actually really appreciate having the extra layer of security. A simple password seems fine for my MMM forums account but for an account where I have $$$$ located? Iíd rather suffer the hassle of taking an extra 20s to log in. Though it does mean that account aggregators like Personal Capital have major hang ups.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4380 on: April 12, 2019, 10:52:07 PM »
You guys are still using two factor authentication?  Iím at five factors already.*  Step up your game.


*my password is 12345

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4381 on: April 13, 2019, 12:11:08 AM »
You guys are still using two factor authentication?  Iím at five factors already.*  Step up your game.


*my password is 12345

Factor Top Is In

RWD

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4382 on: April 13, 2019, 06:48:19 AM »
You guys are still using two factor authentication?  Iím at five factors already.*  Step up your game.


*my password is 12345

That's amazing! I've got the same combination on my luggage!

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4383 on: April 13, 2019, 07:23:00 AM »
I am disappointed by the yield curve crowd. For the last couple years people compared the 2 and 10 year bonds. Then this week they all switched to 3 month and 10 year, because 2 and 10 did not invert. Still waiting on the 30-day/30-year inversion.

Wait, what? What was the reason for the change,

Because Trump is president.

Quote
other than "We wanted to create a sign of doom and manipulate the markets"? Cuz otherwise that's some pretty nasty goalpost-moving.

SwordGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4384 on: April 13, 2019, 07:52:42 AM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI.
@Maenad, congrats!!!   So close!!!!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4385 on: April 13, 2019, 02:21:55 PM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI.

Congrats!.. Me too.... 280% FI.. OOps!..:)

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4386 on: April 13, 2019, 02:42:26 PM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI.

Congrats!.. Me too.... 280% FI.. OOps!..:)

^Evidently flying is one way to reach the top

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4387 on: April 13, 2019, 02:52:45 PM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI.

Congrats!.. Me too.... 280% FI.. OOps!..:)

^Evidently flying is one way to reach the top

No when I sold the airplane I hit the top.. Its all downhill from here..:)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4388 on: April 13, 2019, 06:44:04 PM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI.

Congrats!.. Me too.... 280% FI.. OOps!..:)

^Evidently flying is one way to reach the top

No when I sold the airplane I hit the top.. Its all downhill from here..:)
Hopefully you sold the plane while it was on the ground; otherwise, you might have one nasty bump before you start your downhill run.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4389 on: April 13, 2019, 09:17:15 PM »
I got to a new personal top today - 95% FI.

Congrats!.. Me too.... 280% FI.. OOps!..:)

^Evidently flying is one way to reach the top

No when I sold the airplane I hit the top.. Its all downhill from here..:)
Hopefully you sold the plane while it was on the ground; otherwise, you might have one nasty bump before you start your downhill run.

Those in-flight airplane repo guys are the worst

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #4390 on: April 15, 2019, 09:32:36 PM »
Strong technical resistance for .INX over 2900. Top was in last September!