Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 415323 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2800 on: April 27, 2018, 01:31:48 PM »
Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

So how did Japanese retirees fare?  Were they dying in the streets, had mostly pensions, went back to work?  I was under the impression that due to price deflation things weren't all that painful during that time, although the economy was objectively bad -- however I can't find a source for that now so maybe I just made it up in my head.

Retirees?  I always thought that the stereotype was that Japanese men typically worked until death.  :P
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maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2801 on: April 27, 2018, 01:38:46 PM »
If you were a man retiring at say, 65, in Japan in 1989, you were 21 in 1945. So the generation most impacted by the collapse of the japanese bubble would have been substantially smaller than usual since those were the people of the right age to be sent off to war in world war II and a lot of them never came back home.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2802 on: May 01, 2018, 08:14:26 PM »
**crickets**

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2803 on: May 01, 2018, 08:22:08 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2804 on: May 01, 2018, 08:23:38 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2805 on: May 01, 2018, 08:45:20 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

No, it's too late now.  We're on the rebound, new top coming soon.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2806 on: May 01, 2018, 08:49:31 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

You haven't sold everything already?!?!?!?   I kept checking to see if anyone posted here today, but I guess there's not much to report at the moment.  This thread is more fun when there's new Tops or bottoms in all the time. 

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2807 on: May 01, 2018, 09:31:04 PM »

Bottom cricket is apparently not in yet, having read the caption.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2808 on: May 01, 2018, 09:47:53 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

No, it's too late now.  We're on the rebound, new top coming soon.

So I should buy?  Seems risky


Or maybe I should try this time machine I ordered online

« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 09:49:25 PM by dragoncar »

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2809 on: May 02, 2018, 12:38:21 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2810 on: May 02, 2018, 01:13:44 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Stachless

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2811 on: May 02, 2018, 02:06:54 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?


I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was. 

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2812 on: May 02, 2018, 02:25:59 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Not yet, but I'll let you know when it gets here.

Dani S

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2813 on: May 02, 2018, 02:31:02 PM »
Top is omnipresent. In Top we believe.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2814 on: May 02, 2018, 02:43:57 PM »
Top is omnipresent. In Top we believe.
I WANT TOp BELIEVE

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2815 on: May 02, 2018, 04:05:08 PM »
I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was.

People naive enough to not adjust for inflation likely also aren't adjusting the the reinvestment of dividends. So there are two biases in opposite directions when considering total return naively. I don't know that they'd exactly cancel out, but at least less bias aggregate bias than either would introduce alone.

Also $1 from 2008 is worth $1.18 today and dollar from 1998 is worth $1.54. That's not trivial, but I'm not sure it justifies 9 a's in "way". Maybe 3-4 a's max.

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2816 on: May 02, 2018, 04:43:34 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2817 on: May 02, 2018, 05:04:22 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

I knew it, I switched to a 60/40 B's and C's back before the Top was in

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2818 on: May 02, 2018, 06:17:47 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




Stachless

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2819 on: May 02, 2018, 07:07:20 PM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2820 on: May 02, 2018, 08:34:53 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




So the A's are secretly Japan...

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2821 on: May 02, 2018, 11:01:50 PM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)
This chart goes to now: http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Is anyone printing "I Was There for the Top" t-shirts?
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dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2822 on: May 03, 2018, 03:30:09 AM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)
This chart goes to now: http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Is anyone printing "I Was There for the Top" t-shirts?


« Last Edit: May 03, 2018, 03:32:12 AM by dragoncar »

Dani S

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2823 on: May 03, 2018, 07:49:31 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2824 on: May 03, 2018, 08:40:49 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

I didn't even get a t-shirt...

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2825 on: May 03, 2018, 10:17:41 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

I didn't even get a t-shirt...

The market went to the Top and all I got was this lousy meme

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2826 on: May 03, 2018, 10:51:31 AM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




So the A's are secretly Japan...

And they just announced that they're gonna open the 2019 season in Japan! It all makes sense now! I think it does. It does, right?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/01/as-announce-theyll-open-next-season-in-japan/

macoconut

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2827 on: May 03, 2018, 12:49:24 PM »
The top was in, now the bottom's up?


KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2828 on: May 04, 2018, 07:05:10 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.


thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2829 on: May 04, 2018, 07:09:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.
Are you holding on?  If you're holding on, keep holding.  It will be better than okay.  Remember, you haven't been in the market for a blink of the eye.  You're actually lucky.  This is making your will power stronger now and you richer later!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2830 on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:34 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Patience, it's a long game.  If short term losses keep you up at night, your asset allocation may be too aggressive.  I know it's de rigueur for folks to brag about how they are 90/10, or even 100% stocks, but that exposure is not for everybody.  The old fashioned advice was "age in bonds," e.g., if I am 48, I would have 48% of my portfolio in bonds, and the allocation would increase by 1 percentage point per year.  Other people do "age - 10," or whatever.  You could alternatively look at the glide path in the target date funds, or just invest in a target date fund and let Fidelity or Vanguard take care of the allocation for you.

Also, if you are freaking out by the daily market moves, just stop looking at your balance.  Pretend the internet doesn't exist, and you only get a quarterly or annual statement. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2831 on: May 04, 2018, 07:33:18 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...


caffeine

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2832 on: May 04, 2018, 07:37:12 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...

I think that's top meme!

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2833 on: May 04, 2018, 07:44:52 AM »
Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2834 on: May 04, 2018, 07:53:43 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...

I think that's top meme!

Thanks, and May the Fourth be with you

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2835 on: May 04, 2018, 07:57:00 AM »
And also with you!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2836 on: May 04, 2018, 08:21:09 AM »
I haven't actually laughed out loud at any of these memes, but this one, oh, this one...

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2837 on: May 04, 2018, 08:25:41 AM »
Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

Dani S

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2838 on: May 04, 2018, 08:34:03 AM »
I never even look at the market I just post "Top is in." Am I doing it right?

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2839 on: May 04, 2018, 08:39:40 AM »
I never even look at the market I just post "Top is in." Am I doing it right?

Where's the meme?

Slacker!
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KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2840 on: May 04, 2018, 08:47:21 AM »
Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

Yeah I must look pretty dumb. I looked like we were going to have a terrible day.

But I am still not where I was before the correction!


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2841 on: May 04, 2018, 08:54:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...
That was hilarious. You should troll around for a reason to post it on bogleheads, its hilarity would be grealy magnified by the large relative hilarity differential.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2842 on: May 04, 2018, 08:55:54 AM »
Those guys aren't really the "Star Wars" type.  More like Casablanca.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2843 on: May 04, 2018, 09:38:17 AM »
Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

Yeah I must look pretty dumb. I looked like we were going to have a terrible day.

But I am still not where I was before the correction!

Consider taking a couple steps back from the ledge.

(1)  The S&P 500 is less than 10% off it's all-time high.  Say that again slowly--the S&P 500 is less than 10% off it's all-time high.

(2)  You want the market to go down each and every day if you're still investing.  (Well, even better if it drops 90% tomorrow.)   You want to buy stock as cheaply as possible.  Aren't you still investing?  (If your response is yes, but I wished I had market timed the last investment better, nobody here can help you.)

(3)  How much do you have in the market that 10% is critical to your life?  Especially 10% in unrealized "losses"?  It's likely not a huge amount because if you have a lot in the market, it's because you understand how the market works and you've learned to deal with the anxiety.  If you don't have a ton in there (yet!), relax.  Your life isn't going to come down to $10k.

Keep investing, and have some confidence in numbers and history.  And maybe stop checking the markets.  It's not helping!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2844 on: May 04, 2018, 09:52:19 AM »
Draedel is in.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2845 on: May 04, 2018, 09:59:54 AM »
Those guys aren't really the "Star Wars" type.  More like Casablanca.

Talkies are overrated

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2846 on: May 04, 2018, 11:58:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...
That was hilarious. You should troll around for a reason to post it on bogleheads, its hilarity would be grealy magnified by the large relative hilarity differential.

Nah, I troll enough around these forums, I'd better not increase my forum postings for my free times sake. 

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2847 on: May 04, 2018, 12:30:21 PM »
Quote
Market timing is the path to the dark side...

The dark side is strong with Thorstach


dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2848 on: May 04, 2018, 12:41:11 PM »
Red light saber = markets down = top is in

Green light saber = markets up.  A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2849 on: May 04, 2018, 12:48:35 PM »





Even Yoda can't tell if the top is in!