Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 338832 times)

Bill_

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2800 on: April 26, 2018, 05:38:50 PM »
Mother of all TOPS....Nikkei 225 circa October 1989.

Top is still in.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2801 on: April 26, 2018, 05:47:59 PM »
Mother of all TOPS....Nikkei 225 circa October 1989.

Top is still in.

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2802 on: April 26, 2018, 06:05:03 PM »
Mother of all TOPS....Nikkei 225 circa October 1989.

Top is still in.

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Here's as good a place to start as any:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

Edit to add: For some reason, clicking that link does not include the closing paren, and so it doesn't bring up the article.  Copy/paste the above URL into your browser to find it.

Here's the TLDR: As economist Paul Krugman explained, "Japan's banks lent more, with less regard for quality of the borrower, than anyone else's. In doing so they helped inflate the bubble economy to grotesque proportions."
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 06:12:24 PM by ILikeDividends »

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2803 on: April 26, 2018, 09:10:04 PM »
Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2804 on: April 26, 2018, 09:51:53 PM »
Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

But, I read Taleb and BLACK SWAN!!!  /snark.
Frugalite in training.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2805 on: April 26, 2018, 10:02:35 PM »
Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

This is an excellent summary.

I'll just add that Japan's rapidly aging demographics over the past couple decades served as a massive headwind to any economic or market rebound. Demography is destiny. (Maybe you were alluding to that with "...or the population that supported them").

According to the source hyperlinked below:
  • A 1 basis-point increase in the share of working-age (15 to 64) population would increase per capita real GDP growth (in PPP terms) by as much as 8 basis points.
  • Conversely, a 1 basis-point increase in the share of elderly population (65 and up) would decrease economic growth by about 4 basis points.
  • As is well known, Japan has gone through a much more dramatic ageing process. At the end of World War II, Japan was a very "young" country--with a much younger composition of population than the United States. As shown in the lower left panel of Figure 1, each of the 0-14 and 15-39 age groups accounted for more than 35 percent of the total population in 1950, while only one in four people was older than age 40. Sixty years later, less than half of the population was under 40 years old; about one in three people was between ages 40 and 64, and nearly one in four was older than 65. Many studies have documented that this rapid ageing in Japan has been an important factor accounting for the downward trend in Japanese GDP growth.
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/ifdp-notes/2016/effects-of-demographic-change-on-gdp-growth-in-oecd-economies-20160928.html



 

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2806 on: April 26, 2018, 10:12:32 PM »
Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

So how did Japanese retirees fare?  Were they dying in the streets, had mostly pensions, went back to work?  I was under the impression that due to price deflation things weren't all that painful during that time, although the economy was objectively bad -- however I can't find a source for that now so maybe I just made it up in my head.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2807 on: April 27, 2018, 01:31:48 PM »
Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

So how did Japanese retirees fare?  Were they dying in the streets, had mostly pensions, went back to work?  I was under the impression that due to price deflation things weren't all that painful during that time, although the economy was objectively bad -- however I can't find a source for that now so maybe I just made it up in my head.

Retirees?  I always thought that the stereotype was that Japanese men typically worked until death.  :P

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2808 on: April 27, 2018, 01:38:46 PM »
If you were a man retiring at say, 65, in Japan in 1989, you were 21 in 1945. So the generation most impacted by the collapse of the japanese bubble would have been substantially smaller than usual since those were the people of the right age to be sent off to war in world war II and a lot of them never came back home.

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2809 on: May 01, 2018, 08:14:26 PM »
**crickets**

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2810 on: May 01, 2018, 08:22:08 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2811 on: May 01, 2018, 08:23:38 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2812 on: May 01, 2018, 08:45:20 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

No, it's too late now.  We're on the rebound, new top coming soon.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2813 on: May 01, 2018, 08:49:31 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

You haven't sold everything already?!?!?!?   I kept checking to see if anyone posted here today, but I guess there's not much to report at the moment.  This thread is more fun when there's new Tops or bottoms in all the time. 

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2814 on: May 01, 2018, 09:31:04 PM »

Bottom cricket is apparently not in yet, having read the caption.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2815 on: May 01, 2018, 09:47:53 PM »
**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

No, it's too late now.  We're on the rebound, new top coming soon.

So I should buy?  Seems risky


Or maybe I should try this time machine I ordered online

« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 09:49:25 PM by dragoncar »

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2816 on: May 02, 2018, 12:38:21 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2817 on: May 02, 2018, 01:13:44 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Stachless

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2818 on: May 02, 2018, 02:06:54 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?


I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was. 

Dabnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2819 on: May 02, 2018, 02:25:59 PM »
In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Not yet, but I'll let you know when it gets here.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2820 on: May 02, 2018, 02:31:02 PM »
Top is omnipresent. In Top we believe.

thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2821 on: May 02, 2018, 02:43:57 PM »
Top is omnipresent. In Top we believe.
I WANT TOp BELIEVE

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2822 on: May 02, 2018, 04:05:08 PM »
I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was.

People naive enough to not adjust for inflation likely also aren't adjusting the the reinvestment of dividends. So there are two biases in opposite directions when considering total return naively. I don't know that they'd exactly cancel out, but at least less bias aggregate bias than either would introduce alone.

Also $1 from 2008 is worth $1.18 today and dollar from 1998 is worth $1.54. That's not trivial, but I'm not sure it justifies 9 a's in "way". Maybe 3-4 a's max.

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2823 on: May 02, 2018, 04:43:34 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2824 on: May 02, 2018, 05:04:22 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

I knew it, I switched to a 60/40 B's and C's back before the Top was in

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2825 on: May 02, 2018, 06:17:47 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




Stachless

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2826 on: May 02, 2018, 07:07:20 PM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2827 on: May 02, 2018, 08:34:53 PM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




So the A's are secretly Japan...

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2828 on: May 02, 2018, 11:01:50 PM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)
This chart goes to now: http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Is anyone printing "I Was There for the Top" t-shirts?
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dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2829 on: May 03, 2018, 03:30:09 AM »
The inflation-adjusted graph of the S&P500 is the last graph (not chart) on this page:

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Granted that this chart only covers 1950 - 2010, but its hard to not say 1965 was The Top for a full 25 years.  (Which is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay long time!)
This chart goes to now: http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Is anyone printing "I Was There for the Top" t-shirts?


« Last Edit: May 03, 2018, 03:32:12 AM by dragoncar »

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2830 on: May 03, 2018, 07:49:31 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2831 on: May 03, 2018, 08:40:49 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

I didn't even get a t-shirt...

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2832 on: May 03, 2018, 10:17:41 AM »
The market went to the top and all I got was this lousy t-shirt :(

I didn't even get a t-shirt...

The market went to the Top and all I got was this lousy meme

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2833 on: May 03, 2018, 10:51:31 AM »
The top is in for a's.  Maizeman said so.  He is the new Thorstach!!!!!!!!!

Dude, top was in for the A's in 1989. If you or Maizeman are gonna call a top, at least get the millennium right!




So the A's are secretly Japan...

And they just announced that they're gonna open the 2019 season in Japan! It all makes sense now! I think it does. It does, right?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/01/as-announce-theyll-open-next-season-in-japan/

macoconut

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2834 on: May 03, 2018, 12:49:24 PM »
The top was in, now the bottom's up?


KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2835 on: May 04, 2018, 07:05:10 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.


thd7t

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2836 on: May 04, 2018, 07:09:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.
Are you holding on?  If you're holding on, keep holding.  It will be better than okay.  Remember, you haven't been in the market for a blink of the eye.  You're actually lucky.  This is making your will power stronger now and you richer later!

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2837 on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:34 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Patience, it's a long game.  If short term losses keep you up at night, your asset allocation may be too aggressive.  I know it's de rigueur for folks to brag about how they are 90/10, or even 100% stocks, but that exposure is not for everybody.  The old fashioned advice was "age in bonds," e.g., if I am 48, I would have 48% of my portfolio in bonds, and the allocation would increase by 1 percentage point per year.  Other people do "age - 10," or whatever.  You could alternatively look at the glide path in the target date funds, or just invest in a target date fund and let Fidelity or Vanguard take care of the allocation for you.

Also, if you are freaking out by the daily market moves, just stop looking at your balance.  Pretend the internet doesn't exist, and you only get a quarterly or annual statement. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2838 on: May 04, 2018, 07:33:18 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...


caffeine

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2839 on: May 04, 2018, 07:37:12 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...

I think that's top meme!

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2840 on: May 04, 2018, 07:44:52 AM »
Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2841 on: May 04, 2018, 07:53:43 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...

I think that's top meme!

Thanks, and May the Fourth be with you

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2842 on: May 04, 2018, 07:57:00 AM »
And also with you!

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2843 on: May 04, 2018, 08:21:09 AM »
I haven't actually laughed out loud at any of these memes, but this one, oh, this one...

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2844 on: May 04, 2018, 08:25:41 AM »
Thanks guys, you are always quick to jump in and offer support. But I really want to throw my desk out the five story window.

Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2845 on: May 04, 2018, 08:34:03 AM »
I never even look at the market I just post "Top is in." Am I doing it right?

UnleashHell

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2846 on: May 04, 2018, 08:39:40 AM »
I never even look at the market I just post "Top is in." Am I doing it right?

Where's the meme?

Slacker!
_____________
JTF 96

KTG

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2847 on: May 04, 2018, 08:47:21 AM »
Why?  Markets up yo.  Pop champagne

Yeah I must look pretty dumb. I looked like we were going to have a terrible day.

But I am still not where I was before the correction!


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2848 on: May 04, 2018, 08:54:14 AM »
I am getting so angry. Maybe I am just not cut out for this.

Market timing is the path to the dark side...
That was hilarious. You should troll around for a reason to post it on bogleheads, its hilarity would be grealy magnified by the large relative hilarity differential.

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2849 on: May 04, 2018, 08:55:54 AM »
Those guys aren't really the "Star Wars" type.  More like Casablanca.